Beyond the Cusp

February 23, 2015

Election Run-Up Potential Coalition Building and a System Gone Awry

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Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Iran, NIAC, United States, Congress vs. President Obama

 

 

There are a number of crucial events and societal revelations all holding a great propensity to go awry traveling astray of their reputed paths and expectations. Yesterday a full-page advertisement was placed in the New York Times by a political non-governmental organization (NGO) called the National Iranian American Council (NIAC). This advertisement likely cost them upwards of $200,000 unless the New York Times welcomed the advertisement to such a degree as to offer NIAC a discounted price, something we are unable to prove such actually transpired but decided it was worth mentioning the possibility. The NIAC nonprofit NGO has been perceived to represent the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei (Persian: علی حسینی خامنه‌ای‎) being his spokesman in the United States using whatever medium they feel will achieve the most influence reaching the targeted people be they in the White House, members of Congress, the public in general or even a targeted audience. The audiences targeted by this advertisement were the people in the United States government, influential people from the public and even the public in generally or at least those who read the New York Times. This advertisement attacked Israeli Prime Minister coming to speak before a joint session of the United States Congress, and accused Speaker of the House John Boehner of “siding with a foreign leader” against the elected leader of the United States, President Obama, whose efforts have placed the P5+1 on the “verge of a diplomatic victory that will prevent war and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.” This advertisement targeted the growing divide between President Obama with the Republicans as represented by Speaker of the House Boehner and by association with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu with whom the President has huge disagreements over the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This disagreement is merely the latest uproar between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. It was this split between the President and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the American people’s expressed exhaustion with having American troops fighting what appear to be senseless wars all across the Middle East and gaining no advantage nor reaching a more peaceable relations that NIAC President Trita Parsi stated in a press release that, “The U.S. and its closest allies are on the brink of a historic deal that will both prevent an Iranian bomb and war with Iran, and Congressional hawks are orchestrating political stunts with foreign leaders to try to kill it. The American people do not want another senseless military adventure and certainly don’t consider Benjamin Netanyahu to be their commander in chief.” This was added in order to take aim at the suspicions that the Islamic world believes the rest of the world also suspects the Jews generally and the Israelis in particular of possessing far too much influence over the United States governance.

 

One day earlier, on Saturday , a senior figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mujtabi Du Al-Nour, threatened that Tel Aviv could be destroyed “in ten minutes” if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. He further claimed that the Iranian rockets can reach the heart of Tel Aviv within six or seven minutes, “even before the rockets of the Zionists reach us.” This was simply additional bluster by Iranian military leadership from within the IRGC elite units touting weapons superiority over the Israeli weaponry. As much of the Iranian systems are produced by them and within Iranian borders, this makes assessing the effectiveness of their weapon systems impossible; but if previous records and ability to produce systems with equal or superior abilities against Israeli weapon systems, such attempts are next to impossible. Often these type statements are made with the intention of impressing their own people just as much if not more than it is to be taken as an actual threat from the Iranians. That Iran has thousands of missiles and nearly countless rockets capable of being launched and reaching Tel Aviv is a valid threat and not any different from Israeli estimates of the Iranian capabilities. Israel has been made aware of the extent of their level of competence and expertise. The question is whether or not the Iranians would place weapons of mass destruction (WMD) atop these weapons and if so how many such warheads they would utilize and if so exactly which variety and in what numbers. Of course such determination is only important if Israel would resort to replying with weapons of mass destruction in return and if Israel has decided to answer chemical weapons, biological weapons and nuclear weapons using same kind of weapons. Should the Israeli plan be to simply respond to any attack utilizing WMDs of any variety, be it chemical, biological or nuclear, the Israeli response would come in the form of a nuclear response. Such a response should be made known before there is any such assault from Iran and thus after an exchange of fire the Iranians cannot claim they did not understand how Israel might respond.

 

Then there are the coming Israeli elections and the forming of a coalition and thereby name the Prime Minister and set government policies. The fact that the likelihood that current Prime Minister Netanyahu will be called upon to make the next ruling coalition is only disputed by the polls being touted by the media which continues to depict the race as close between Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the combined ticket of Labor with Hatnua and having a shared Prime Ministership between Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Hertzog. The media has claimed there is the threat of horrific evils should Netanyahu and the Likud win and the combined ticket of Hertzog and Livni ended up in the opposition. There was a report which claims that a senior source in an article in Arutz Sheva titled Senior Source: Bibi Plans Gov’t with Labor, Haredim has informed the media that Prime Minister Netanyahu plans on forming a Unity Government with his initial coalition by inviting the Labor/Hatnua parties along with Shas to form the government and lock out Jewish Home and the other religious Zionist parties. Such a coalition would result in the complete capitulation to whatever President Obama would demand of Israel concerning the formation of an Arab state using the 1949 Armistice Lines as the new borders and a sharing of Jerusalem. This would be accepted by Netanyahu as a result of making such a coalition as not accepting the formation of an Arab state utilizing whatever President Obama would demand as the main parties forming the coalition would be Labor/Hatnua which would hold the coalition to fulfilling their main concern, the forming of an Arab state as President Obama desires and along the Green Line, also called the 1967 lines or the 1949 ceasefire armistice lines and named by Israeli United Nations Abba Eban as the Auschwitz Borders as he predicted that Israel returning to the borders as defined before the Six Day War would leave Israel indefensible against another combined Arab assault. This, if it proves true, will mean that Bibi Netanyahu, another IDF veteran from an elite group and as well respected for his military service as was former Prime Minister Sharon very well might be heading to making another unilateral disengagement just as was performed by Sharon with Gaza except this time the area to be gifted to the Arab terrorist groups will have easy ability from the overlooking Judean Hills to launch rockets directly into Tel Aviv and the heart of Israeli society targeting well over three-quarters of Israeli population, business, industry, power generation and virtually everything else one might imagine including the nuclear reactor at Dimona. The only reason which we have been able to put together as to why Prime Minister Netanyahu would form such a government is in order to attack Iran with the backing of the entire government and the people as such an assault may be required once Israel reads and fully understands the ramification and realities of the world once President Obama with the backing of the P5+1 default giving Iran a green light to attain breakout existence and making Iran a threshold nuclear state capable of producing nuclear weapons at their choosing with merely a two or three week period to reactivate the hardware required to make the ninety percent enriched uranium and producing two bombs a week within eight to ten weeks. In order to prevent Iran from having such ability in the present time Israel would be required to destroy the nuclear sites within Iran and to do so and repeat doing so each time Iran rebuilds their nuclear weapons production stations. This would mean that information which Israeli intelligence has gathered is so convincing of how dire the situation is as a result of the feckless negotiating by President Obama such that even Tzipi Livni would realize that before returning to negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas about the formation of a poisonous state in Judea and Samaria the situation with Iran will need to be defused otherwise that threat would make any concessions impossible. Benyamin Netanyahu making such a broad and diverse coalition would only make such reasonable if a combined and unified nation is required for the situation Israel is facing and both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Rivlin have seen and discussed the situation and already reached their conclusions and planned for the making of a Unity Government. That Prime Minister is considering forming a unity government with Labor can only mean we are on the verge of an existential war which will require a united nation and all-inclusive governance.

 

The final event is the finalizing whatever agreement is in the workings between the P5+1 and Iran over the Iranian uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons system. President Obama has been working on finding some slight of language which will permit him to sign a treaty for the United States and enforce said treaty without receiving the approval by the Senate. President Obama has had his advisors, czars and other appointees assisting in the making and signing of a treaty putting it into effect establishing the international application without fulfilling the requirements for making a treaty or agreement between the United States. Such an agreement very well may force Israel’s hand and have Israel leading a coalition of the willing which would possibly include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states all of whom are petrified with fear and very well may be willing to even join an organized resistance against Iran and even allow said alliance to be organized around and led by Israel. This may be the near future should Iran be permitted to retain assembled and not required to disassemble her nineteen-thousand centrifuges of which a sizeable number of these centrifuges are their latest version and they are six times more capable than their older models. It is very likely possible that Iran is simply waiting for the end of negotiations and likely to blow off reaching any agreement and immediately start their dash to produce a nuclear arsenal. Once the negotiations have been permitted and accepted as the manner of addressing the limitation of Iran thus preventing the Iranian governance and military from attaining nuclear breakout, that allows Iran to easily start making nuclear bombs and stocking an entire arsenal. The guarantee being proffered by the United States that they would be capable of detecting any moves by Iran in time to prevent their making nuclear devices is on shaky ground as proven by the United States having missed catching the Soviet Union, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and South Africa from reaching nuclear breakout becoming a nuclear armed power and a member of the nuclear club, a club which is steadily losing its exclusivity.

 

The near future is appearing to be exciting enough to give even the most optimistic of us reason to pause and even to stumble before regaining our balance while observing the earth losing its balance. Meanwhile anti-Semitism is once again spreading across Europe and the call is once again blaming the Jews for the world’s ills. The difference this time is the Jew is the state of Israel. The Middle East is heating towards a boiling point and may explode very soon. Iran is still financing and arming terrorists worldwide. Iran has even gotten into the business of arming and financing Sunni terrorists such as Hamas. Talking about Sunni terrorists, there is a new Sunni terrorist group called ISIS (or IS) which is gaining recruits from the world over and also is being reinforced by other treacherous Sunni terror groups joining their front including one of the larger terror groups in Libya and from Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and along the Muslim/Christian divide in western Africa, Boko Haram. Meanwhile Iraq has split into three states, the Shiite south being protected by a loose alliance of the United States and Iran while the north is becoming a Kurdish run and protected state which is also receiving some aid from the United States and even being further armed by Iran as well and between them in the Center of Iraq and slowly expanding is ISIS. The United States is also assisting in the fight against ISIS in Syria where the government of Bashir Assad is fighting for its life with aid coming from Hezballah, Iran and air support from the United States who are also presumably attempting to remove Assad. Confused enough yet? Well, try this on for size, Israel is loosely allied with Saudi Arabia and Egypt against ISIS and also may be developing an above the table alliance against ISIS with Jordan. Will wonders ever cease? Add to this the fact that the United States President is working against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and definitely Israel. The final relationship has deteriorated to the point that President Obama had begun to attack the Prime Minister of Israel claiming that he is attempting to disrupt the negotiations with Iran just as President Obama has almost completed the terms of the United States surrender which Europe appears to be satisfied will not destroy Europe immediately. The entire mess reminds me of the song Eve of Destruction by Barry McGuire of the video below.

 

 

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 24, 2012

Just Another Mass Murder of Innocents in Syria

The forces loyal to Assad utilized an airstrike to slaughter people who were simply lining up at a bakery to purchase bread and pastries. The toll has already reached close to one-hundred with expectations that the final count of dead might exceed two-hundred. The result was bodies stacked and slung all over the entire block of the street in front of the bakery with dead and wounded lying together as others searched to find the living and separate them from the dead. The scene is captured in this <a href=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIfdO7yzKeM&feature=player_embedded target=blank>explicitly graphic video</a> showing a scene of trauma expectant in the aftermath of such a horrific and senseless slaughter of innocent noncombatants. This attack comes on top of the revelation that Assad’s forces have begun to use scud missiles against rebel forces and civilians with no discrimination between the innocent civilians and those who have taken up arms against his rule. This has to lead one to believe that Assad is but a decision away from the use of his chemical weapons on these scud missiles and the horrors and havoc such will render on the remaining Syrian population in addition to the rebel forces. Meanwhile, the world leaders decry these attacks and invest great numbers of words and promises that they are monitoring the situation in Syria and will take serious and decided action should Assad introduce chemical weapons to the conflict. Judging by the lack of serious response to the over 40,000 civilian deaths estimated to have resulted from the civil war thus far, one has to wonder if such threats are empty bluster more than resolutions to take the actions threatened.

On the other side of the coin, news continues to enforce the existence of two distinct and separate groups which comprise the rebel forces. One group is a cobbled union of secularists, disparate minority groups, and Muslims who wish to establish some form of democratic governance with universal rights while the other group consists of Islamists belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, Salafists, and other Sunnis who favor establishing a Sharia State. Many fear that once Assad is taken down from power the fighting will simply turn with these separate rebel groups beginning yet a second civil war for the future of Syria. The parallels between the situation in Syria and the history of the French Revolution is frightening and if the conflict in Syria should come to a similar end, the future for Syria is bleak and dark at best. This bifurcation of the rebel forces has also made supporting the rebels a more difficult proposition fraught with possible mistakes and weapons and aid falling into the hands of terrorists instead of the intended secular forces. Much has been speculated as to how much of the weapons and aid has already fallen into presumably unintended hands and this has clouded the plans to send further such assistance. This is definitely not an instance where one can simply make decisions using the old system of the enemy of my enemy is my friend as some of those who are enemies of Assad are also enemies of the West and a threat to the Western way of life. Decisions, decisions, all I can say is I am glad these are not decisions that will rest on my shoulders.

Then there is the last threat, the stores of chemical weapons. There are serious concerns as to into whose hands these deadly weapons of mass destruction will end up falling. There are many who claim that there are some who we can trust to receive these stores and some we must avoid allowing to come into possession of Assad’s vast stores of chemical weapons. My vote is that there is nobody who we should allow to come into possession of these weapons and possess such a threat. Assuming that the forces of the world continue with their hand-wringing and making bold statements while taking no actions, then these diabolical weapons are going to fall into somebody’s hands and the only safe solution would be to make sure that at the end of the fighting these weapons are destroyed and not left for anybody to possess, or even worse, to use. That is the one action which needs to be planned for and executed preferably with great stealth and assurances that all of these chemical weapons are destroyed. These weapons should not be allowed to continue to exist even if it is in the hands of a Western country, the Russians, the Israelis, or anybody else. The destruction of these chemical weapons stores has to be the one result of this conflict that must be made a primary goal. Any other path would be pure folly and could only end, sooner or later, in catastrophe.

Beyond the Cusp

December 10, 2012

Syria Nearing a Point of Critical Mass

Syria has been slowly but steadily spinning further and further into its own special darkness and that process is once again picking up speed. There have been reports from the United States and allies accusing the Assad forces of preparing chemical weapons by mixing the precursor elements to produce Sarin nerve agent. At the same time we have been informed by the Assad regime that some group of the rebel forces have captured a chlorine factory on the outskirts of Aleppo and now have the ability to use the chlorine gas as a chemical agent themselves. Both sides are pointing fingers while professing their sworn promises to never use such weapons on their fellow Syrians. With the trading of accusations we can expect that should either side resort to using the chemical weapons at their disposal that the ensuing accusations and counter accusations would only serve to muddy the waters. So, when the accusations are flying how are we to separate the excuses from the pure lies?

Fortunately, we will easily be able to differentiate between chlorine gas and Sarin nerve agent simply by viewing the victims. The aftermath of a Chlorine gas attack will produce badly burned bodies from severe chemical burns with the bodies having a blackened appearance. Victims of a Sarin nerve agent attack will reveal bodies rigidly contorted appearing to have been bent backwards. What will be more difficult is if the source is determined to have been chlorine or mustard gas then we will still not know for sure who was behind using this banned weaponized gas but should Sarin nerve agent be used we will know with relative certainty that it was deployed by Assad’s forces. One of the problems with determining who was behind a Chlorine or Mustard gas strike is that both sides currently have such weapons or their precursor elements within their arsenals. The fact that the Rebel forces are a fractured array of groups with at least two major factions, even if such a strike is determined to have been perpetrated by the rebels we still would not know which group.

What makes all of this even more complicated is the seemingly sudden realization that some of the rebel forces are also members of terrorist groups which the United States opposes or is actively fighting on other battlefields. President Assad’s claims that he is fighting against terrorists is not entirely propaganda or an excuse though it is not sufficient to explain all of the actions and civilian deaths and casualties from his soldiers’ actions. One still had to be at least somewhat suspicious that the United States and their allies have only recently become aware that some of those rebels forces in Syria and, surprise, surprise, also in Libya are actually members of terrorist organizations. We made that prediction immediately after it was announced that NATO forces were to enforce a “No Fly Zone” in Libya almost two years ago. We stated that Muammar Gaddafi was not entirely incorrect when he claimed that he was simply defending Libya and the Libyans from terrorist bands that were posing as rebels. For those who will want to read the actual article, it is titled <a href=https://beyondthecusp.wordpress.com/2011/04/02/our-new-friends-and-allies-in-libya-and-the-muslim-world/ target=blank> Our New Friends and Allies in Libya and the Muslim World</a> and it is right there in the second paragraph back on April 2, 2011. The shocked and surprised act from those responsible for supplying advanced weapons falling into the hands of terrorists is a little beyond belief, especially since their shock seems eerily similar to Attorney Eric Holder’s initial reactions to the Fast and Furious fiasco. Either the United States foreign policy is in the hands of fools or it is in the hands of people who may not be as interested in the future of the United States as some would claim or prefer. The fact that the rebel forces behind all of the uprisings of the Arab Winter, we still refuse to call it the Arab Spring, have just recently become something suspected as possible is beyond credulity for even the most trusting of thinking individuals, but still the mainstream press will echo the shock and simply nod in agreement like a bobble head in the window of a car on a cobblestone street.

Beyond the Cusp

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