Obama Desires Testing Surrender to Iran

President Obama has responded to new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s laying of bait when it was reported in the German news source, Spiegel Online, Iran is “prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges.” President Rouhani expects that in return for decommissioning the heavily fortified Fordo facility that the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the United Nations and all others would rescind there sanctions. There is no mention by Iran that they plan on closing any of their other enrichment plants such as the one in Qom and a suspected recently opened new location which has been tentatively identified. With no guarantees that Iran would be willing to let a schedule for the dismantling of the rest of its nuclear sites including all of their enrichment sites, their plutonium producing reactor, their ballistic missile research, and their high explosive and trigger mechanism test areas setting all sanctions aside would completely free the Iranians to continue their steady movement towards nuclear weapons and their delivery systems without paying any price. There should be no difficulty in totally rejecting such an offer out of hand without having to think very hard.

But President Obama is a deep thinker who must mull over every decision and offer well beyond the point of distraction. Often there must be those advisors who feel like yelling, “What is so difficult about this?” when waiting for the Ditherer in Chief to make decisions after being briefed.  During an interview with Spanish-language network Telemundo on Tuesday, Obama said. “There is an opportunity here for diplomacy, and I hope the Iranians take advantage of it. There are indications that Rouhani, the new president, is somebody who is looking to open dialogue with the West and with the United States, in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. And so we should test it.” If the President by “test it” means measure the level and consider actions commensurate with the depth of the Iranian commitment, then perhaps he is working with a full understanding and not simply seeking a path for complete surrender rescinding all of the United States sanctions relieving all pressure from the Iranian economy and allowing any ability to force change to evaporate in that instant. The level of President Obama’s shallowness has been well defined, especially in foreign affairs, so we only need to measure the intent and honesty of Iranian President Rouhani to predict what to expect.

The recent news coverage of the election of President Hassan Rouhani has showered him with praises and the gentle mantle of peacemaker and the standard of reasonableness by which one could measure all others against. The depth of slavish praises has been worthy of that heaped by preteen young girls on their teen idols it has been so blindingly one-sided. The only fly in the ointment has been the warnings coming from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and numerous other leaders of the ruling coalition in Israel. So, which side is right? Could it be possible that the Israelis know something that the rest of the Western media and political leadership don’t know making Israel right and the rest of the world is making a dangerous mistake? That hardly would seem likely simply because it is preposterous to believe that the entire Western World and all of their intelligence agencies and thousands upon thousands of experts and advisors could all be misjudging the new President in Iran and only little Israel can tell that the emperor is wearing no shimmering cloak of reasonableness and virtue.

So, what can we divine from the past actions, positions and other information about the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani? The very first item that must be considered is exactly how he became the President of Iran. Presumably he won in an election which actually is just a pretense used to mask the dictatorial nature of the clerical rulers over Iran. It is a given that Rouhani was the personally approved candidate above all others as decided by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani was among the names which were brought to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Assembly of Experts had reviewed the candidates who were seeking to be included on the ballot and removed any undesirables, questionable or other disqualifications leaving a core group of candidates considered loyal to the clerical leadership and considered acceptable to build whatever foreign and domestic story the clerical leadership had planned going forward. Best guess is that after President Ahmadinejad the clerical leadership was seeking a candidate who would be well spoken with a calming demeanor with no history of fanaticism or obvious ties to the<a href=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-ithna-ashari.htm> Twelvers</a> and one who was extremely familiar with the mannerisms and negotiation style of the Western World. This definition is almost the exact resume of Hassan Rouhani who was a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, is well educated and well-spoken with a past that is above reproach. As wonderful as that description is, it does not mean that Rouhani is to be trusted in any negotiations as those who had met with him tell of a hard negotiator who is persuasive and manipulative often concealing his intents behind his polished, carefully chosen words. Rouhani thus was the hand-picked candidate by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and therefore the winner of the elections. Any belief that Iranian elections were not a ruse used to give a democratic shield behind which to camouflage a dictatorship was demolished by the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2009, thus it is understood that the person who wins such elections was actually the person anointed by the Supreme Leader.

The truth of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is he has been hand-picked to lead a deception by which Iran will make largely symbolic gestures expecting to reap huge rewards in return simply because they appear to be cooperating and President Obama is ripe for the fleecing as he is in dire need of success, real or false. This fits perfectly with the ploy by President Rouhani with his offering to decommission one of his uranium enrichment facilities and having all or most of the financially crippling sanctions removed from Iran, especially the sanctions against their exporting oil which is the Iranian most crucial trade item, the one their entire economy revolves around. Depending on the amount of success achieved by this deception the Iranian leadership will devise the next steps in their crafted path to attain nuclear weapons capability while managing to retain sufficient economic freedom from sanctions to relieve what has become a crushing situation under the ratcheted economic sanctions. It has only been the most recent sanctions that put the Iranian economy over the edge thus they do not need to attain sweeping relief from the sanctions; they just require the end of certain critical sanctions of which the sanctions on oil head the list. As President Rouhani was a previous nuclear head negotiator for the Iranians he is also very familiar and quickly brought up to date on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program and exactly what is still necessary to complete their quest in a timely manner. This past experience will serve him well as he will be able to make offers outside of the P5+1 talks, which include the five major veto holding powers of the Security Council plus Germany, thus allowing for a coordinated two-pronged assault to find and take advantage of any weaknesses or easily beguiled people such as President Obama and move rapidly with the minimal discomfort to their goal of nuclear weapons power. The description by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of equating President Hassan Rouhani with a wolf in sheep’s clothing as very accurate. He is also likely a slick fast-talker who can be glib, gracious, and disarming by a quick wit and the brushing aside of concerns or disagreements. He will likely be magnanimous if it serves his designs and hard as granite when needing to stand firm. He will have the piercing of a diamond tipped drill and the precision of a verbal surgeon as he will pick apart and cut out his needs with great skill and deftness. President Hassan Rouhani should not be underestimated and his words rarely taken at face value. One should always look for the hidden meanings and on the lookout for misdirection and baited traps which will result in allowing Rouhani the advantage he needs to gain trust or what may at the time appear to be a minor point, never take anything merely as an honest offer as there will always be a hidden meaning or path to back away after gaining the desired prize he sought. Never be at comfort in his presence and read carefully and listen well to his words and the tones and inflections he used to mask and enforce those words. To put it simply, do not trust, verify, and always suspect the worst or the biggest of deceits.

Beyond the Cusp

Addendum: After testing the will of President Obama and finding him to be beyond anxious in his desire to appear to make progress, Iranian new President Rouhani walked back the offer to decommission the Fordo Nuclear Uranium Enrichment Processing Plant. President Rouhani went even further negating that Iran was even interested in the pursuit of nuclear weapons while reclaiming the Iranian right to conduct nuclear research.

Different Takes and Positions on Syria Attack

The most important nation in discourse over whether or not to attack Syria over the most recent use of chemical Weapons is the United States. The first item which would be expected to be clarified is to make all evidence made available validating the claims that it was actually the Syrian military that deployed the chemical weapons and that al-Assad gave the orders. Thus far President Obama and the spokespeople from within his administration have sounded in virtual unison forming a chorus of accusations blaming Syrian President Bashir al-Assad for giving the orders to use chemical weapons which murdered hundreds of civilians. Evidential proof has been lacking or at best thin with assurances that they have solid and unimpeachable evidence of al-Assad’s guilt in the matter of loosing weapons of mass destruction and the American people and the world are left to simply trust they are correct. What makes this somewhat puzzling is that those who are behind claiming that there has been use of WMDs on civilians in Syria are people who not so long ago had a completely different view on taking a President and his people’s guarantees on another country having possession and having used WMDs. The President was George W. Bush and the person presumably owning the WMDs in question was Saddam Hussein of Iraq. This was the same reasoning given for the invasion of Iraq by President Bush who also expected that his word would suffice. The Iraq War was the conflict of which John Kerry was for the war before he was against the war; Barack Obama and Chuck Hagel were simply against that war in Iraq; and Joe Biden supported the war in Iraq but changed his stance when he campaigned with President Obama claiming that he had made a serious mistake in supporting the Iraq War. Now we are supposed to simply take these same anti-war politicians when they last spoke of their positions regarding the Iraq War but are certain that there are WMDs in al-Assad’s arsenal and he has used them on his own people and we are told to simply trust them. The only thing missing is their blaming President George W. Bush for not attacking Iraq in time to prevent Saddam Hussein’s WMDs from being spirited out of Iraq and stored in Syria where they were the real reason that al-Assad was able to utilize these chemical weapons this past week; after all, isn’t just about everything George W. Bush’s fault?

 

Then there are the British who could be considered one of the instigators behind this entire emergency. This is the third time the British have claimed that al-Assad has deployed chemical weapons during the Syrian civil war and have been backed up in their intelligence reports by the French and the Israelis on at least two of these occasions. The British had already announced earlier this week that their resources in the Mediterranean theater were on standby and ready to assist the United States if they decide to move on the current intelligence of chemical weapons use in Syria. The British were also absolutely positive that Bashir al-Assad was the perpetrator of the release of chemical weapons on the Syrian people. Thus far the French have not announced their readiness to join any attack on Syrian targets which are used by the Syrian military presumably including the chemical weapons storage areas and other military targets which could be utilized in the deployment of chemical weapons in the future. In a straight forward description of targets one could just describe them as any military targets including airports, aircraft, artillery positions, and virtually any other military target. Initial reports claim that the United States already has a list of targets within Syria numbering one-hundred-fifty and includes everything mentioned above as well as command and control assets presumably as that is where the orders originate and if they are taken out new orders would be impossible to relay to the units. Then again, perhaps the Syrians might think to use the same technology the American troops which invaded Grenada resorted to using when they were faced with a small embarrassment, the different units from each branch of service were set to different frequencies and the Marines could not talk to the Army who could not talk to the Air Force who could not talk to the Navy, so resourceful Rangers made a collect phone call to an Air Force base in Florida to order up an airstrike. I am assuming they have telephones in Syria which is likely a safe bet.

 

Then there are the Israelis who have been put on notice by Bashir al-Assad and many of his ranking officers and other high officials that should the United States, British, French or any other Western power attack Syria then Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Hezballah will all attack Israel with everything they can muster. This threat will be their reaction whether Israel takes part in the attack or remains neutral. Since it has been made obvious that declaring themselves as neutral would be useless in protecting Israel from attack the Israelis went ahead and wasted their time and announced their intentions to leave Syria to their own civil war and not interfere in Syrian internal struggles. That is not to imply that Israel has had nothing to request about the entire situation that is developing over the Syrian use of chemical weapons on their own civilians. The Israelis actually asked the United States please advise them before they launch any attack. While Israel is not planning to assist any attack on Syria, with the standing threat that the Syrian response will be a general attack upon Israel by four nations and as many terrorists as they can muster, they probably would like the heads-up in order to at least be prepared for any eventuality. Unfortunately, for some reason I have a feeling that such a warning will not be forthcoming from President Obama. On the other hand, I would bet that the Israeli military monitoring capabilities would probably pick up any activity entering the Syrian theater, even if they were to do so from the Syrian Turkish border. This is even more likely as Turkey also accused Bashir al-Assad of using chemical weapons and has verified the British and French claims and has called for a military response.

 

I guess we need to conclude with our expectations and insights all of which are officially a poke in the dark guess. The first thing we would like to see presented before any retaliatory actions are initiated is the convincing evidence President Obama and his supporting cast claim to have in their position. The one truth which appears to be a certainty is that there was an actual deployment of chemical agent which killed hundreds of Syrian civilians. It is actually very probably this was the third time that chemical weapons have been loosed in the Syrian civil war. The ideal time to have addressed the chemical weapons stores in Syria would have been very early in the conflict with a precision attack or Special Forces intervention with either method having one dedicated target and otherwise avoiding any further interference which might have further effects on the status-quo. Once such an opportunity was missed and other nations took sides in the conflict there became complications which made any interference a risk of incurring a much larger conflict. That has become the threat which has been placed by those backing Bashir al-Assad when Russia, Iran, and China all issued warnings to President Obama not to interfere in any way in the Syrian internal conflict or face serious ramifications. Iran has agreed with the threat made by al-Assad that should there be an attack on the Syrian military or any of its resources then Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Hezballah at a minimum will ally with Syria in mounting an attack on Israel as their reply. Syria has also claimed that there are some surprises in store for any American forces or those of their allies should they attack Syria which will defend their nation with everything at their disposal. The most unfortunate reality which may be possible is that President Obama decides that a Syrian reply with all of her Middle Eastern allies against Israel is something which he is willing to risk and actually could not really care one way or the other. This lack of concern over any threat to Israel might also allow President Obama to disregard the Israeli request to be notified before the Americans or anybody attacks Syria, even if it is just minutes before the forces cross into Syria. Such disregard and disrespect shown an ally would normally be unthinkable but then President Obama has a standing record for unthinkable treatments concerning Israel. The worst possible result would be the Russians and/or Chinese enter into the conflict in support of Syria responding to an attack by the United States or any Western nation. The one sliver of good news was that the United States appears to have put off any attack until Thursday which may give them time to find some way around actually attacking Syria. The one suspicion which needs to be completely ruled out before any attack is launched against Bashir al-Assad is to know for a great degree of certainty that it was actually the Syrian military and not the rebel forces which deployed the chemical weapons. Exactly how such a level of assurance is possible to accomplish may be difficult but it is also one certainty which should be met before taking such a drastic measure as an attack. My prayers are going to be that President Obama backs down as even should he act it would not make him any more credible at this point in his tenure. In the meantime, I will have a very nervous week and am hoping that I am able to go to Rosh Hashanah services and praying for the war to end, be the war be in between Israel and the combined forces of Syria and her allies or an even worse case of a general war between the United States and whoever decides to ally with Iran and Syria in a general war which could become the worst conflagration in world history.

 

Beyond the Cusp