The Root of the Real Problem With Iran Deal is Trust

 

The familiar line we are getting about the impending Iran nuclear agreement is that we cannot trust Iran. I do not believe that is the most worrisome problem as much as our inability to trust the United States President and Secretary of State to be honest or even for their claims and comments on what is and is not permitted and their ramifications to even contain a scintilla of truth, and that is a major trust problem. Since I have initially claimed that trusting Iran is not the main problem, perhaps we should first discuss what I mean by trusting Iran and then we can go to the root problem of President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry and the entire support staff and how far we can even trust the major advisors to the President.

 

President Obama, as almost everyone with eyes and ears has figured out, has a serious deficit in the foreign policy department which makes his domestic policies appear to be some of the greatest achievements in all of history. To claim the President Obama’s handling of America’s foreign dealings have been a blighted catastrophe may be giving them too much credit for actual achievement. The first improvement might be for him to stop whatever he is doing and then to pursue the exact opposite track. This would mean walking out of the Iran negotiations and reapplying the stiffest sanctions and working to enjoin as many other nations and international alliances to join in this pressure forcing the Iranian regime to realize they can either enter talks with an honest intent to reach some form of agreement with an in depth set of inspection routines which also includes snap inspection at the IAEA’s preference and not the paltry attempt at appearing to allow such inspections when they are restrained to only make snap request for permission under the current stipulations being discussed. President Obama has produced a strawman which he has burned in effigy at least a thousand times and has also added an additional inferred quality to his strawman which gives it the stench of one of the most horrid and ancient hatreds of planet Earth. Going back and listening to President Obama’s own words and he interchanges the strawman of the only other choice is war with claims that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is demanding the United States risk going to war with Iran. The President has labeled any opposition to his plan as surrendering to that warmonger from Israel, Netanyahu thus invoking the specter of anti-Semitism. The problem is that we cannot expect or trust that President Obama has anything other than the surrender of the entirety of United States control or even influence in the future of the Middle East including providing any protection for Israel, or perhaps centered on neutering Israeli power by granting Iran hegemonic power in the Middle East potentially greater than Israel possesses. President Obama has already made the suggestion that if only Israel would be rid of its nuclear arsenal then perhaps there might be a possibility that Iran would immediately end their dedicated nuclear weapons programs and unless Israel were to dismantle their nuclear arsenal and potentially render their Dimona reactor inert and permanently unusable then Israel should expect to accept all blame for any deficiencies which may prove to be resulting from any Iran deal President Obama and company are capable of producing. The entirety of any shortcoming will be blamed on Israel in general and Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular by President Obama and the leftist media will add the responsibility and blame for Iran becoming a nuclear power by placing the onus on Israel. That has been the message and it will only be made to be heard louder and clear as a bell when the perfidy of President Obama is committing in order to make a deal. President Obama is arranging for any positives that are reaped from his Iran deal, which will likely be defined mathematically as the null or empty set, while all blame for the deficiencies being caused by Israeli intransigence preventing a broader deal which would have made the entire Middle East nuclear free and immediately breaking out in song and flowers sprouting across the lands. That is the crux of the treachery being committed by President Obama and his setup escape clause is, ‘blame Israel’ not he.

 

Now let’s proceed on to Iran and why Iran can be trusted. Simply put, the Iranian leadership and especially Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have been brutally honest, which is more than what can be stated about President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry or the dire leftist media in their reporting, or more accurately, their lack of reporting on the situation. The Iranian leadership has been very up front in denying that they will permit any inspections ever on their military facilities, period! They have insisted that there be only scheduled inspections of which they are to be given ample notice and that they hold the final say on where and what the inspectors can visit and see, control over any samples taken, and generally be permitted to skirt around any potential troubles their nuclear program inspection might pose. They have flat out stated they will be utilizing their most recent and improved centrifuges which have the capability of producing weapons grade as much as 95% enriched uranium of 3.5%, that is three and one half percent, in a single cascade thus removing the troublesome storage of 20% enriched uranium as would have been required by their previous centrifuges. Further, they have assured all that should they design and produce even more efficient centrifuges in the future which would allow for a cascade needing fewer centrifuges and thus less likely to fail, then they will be exchanging the older centrifuges with the latest and greatest centrifuges no matter what President Obama is claiming. Probably the greatest of the Iranian claims is that there will be no restrictions on their missile program which since the beginning of the nuclear negotiations came under the tutelage of President Obama and his band of merry-making advisors who may only speak of the greatness of the emperor and his new policies back in 2009 has advanced from barely being capable of reaching Greece or Egypt or placing a satellite in near Earth orbit for a few revolutions to now being capable of striking France and Algeria and placing communications or spy satellites into orbit (which potentially means they could possibly strike anywhere on the globe with a fair amount of difficulty but still within their technical abilities).

 

Then there were the comments glossed over and quickly forgotten by the Western leftist media as Iranian ‘elected’ President Hassan Rouhani had claimed, in what is dismissed as ancient history and being long before he rose to the Presidency as a new and now suddenly moderate, what he had stated in what may as well have been a former life way back in 2001, “If one day … the Islamic world will be equipped with weapons available to Israel now … the employment of even one atomic bomb inside Israel will wipe it off the face of the earth but would only do damage to the Islamic world.” Recounting his term as the Lead Negotiator for Iran at the nuclear talks back in 2003, when the talks included only France, Britain, and Germany, he boasted that using a smile and a few jokes he completely disarmed the European negotiators convincing them he was a moderate reformer determined to reach an amicable agreement and then proceeded to drag out the talks. When he was assigned to lead the negotiations for Iran he boasted, “The day we invited the three European ministers, only 10 centrifuges were spinning at Natanz. We could not produce one gram of U4 or U6 [uranium hexafluoride]. We did not have the heavy water, we could not produce yellowcake, our total production of centrifuges inside the country was 150. We wanted to complete all of these, we needed time.” Referring to his use of deception President Rouhani related, “While Iran has a right within the nuclear non-proliferation regime to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes it has decided voluntarily to suspend all uranium enrichment and processing activities as defined by the IAEA. The statement of Tehran in that declaration, there was a resolution that all [uranium enrichment and processing] must stop but we did not allow it.” Wearing an example of that gleaming and disarming famous smile, Rouhani boasts about Iran completing the construction of the Bushehr nuclear reactor as well as the Arak heavy water and plutonium producing reactor complex while Iran was increasing the number of centrifuges from 150 to 1,700 at Natanz facility. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu summed up the Rouhani approach and stylized deception he has packaged especially for what Rouhani perceives as Western fools easily led to there they wish to be led while delivering exactly what the Iranians desire stated, Iranian President Rouhani, “he’s criticizing his predecessor for being a wolf in wolf’s clothing. His strategy is to be a wolf in sheep’s clothing. Smile and build a bomb.” All it takes is a smile and a few jokes, wonderful.

 

There are other items we can be assured Iran honestly intends to follow through on and that they have announced repeatedly but the leftist media only sees the Cheshire Cat and the face away while the smile lingers. Some of the more pertinent claims include but are not limited to the following. Iran will be permitted to operate under these agreements nineteen thousand centrifuges. The Iranian military bases will be off-limits to inspectors who are merely spies for the Western powers. Iran refuses to answer the questions about previous activities which may have been operated by its military. We will keep all military activities secret and beyond the sight of the inspectors. Why is it that Israel is permitted to have hundreds of nuclear weapons but Iran is not allowed any such devices; that is an inequality which must not be permitted to stand. Iranian internal affairs are not to be interfered with by the Western Powers. And then there always is that favorite around which they have built a number of confabs which were more celebratory than they were policy in their appearance and the reporting by the mainstream media but if viewed and the speeches words were heeded, these were some of the most threatening and frightening celebratory events which targeted the conquest of the west but especially insisted that at their first possible convenience once they had the ability that Iran had a special treatment for the United States and Israel as stated in the banners and the name of these conventions, “A World Without Zionism or America.”

 

That should be sufficient to send a chill down the spine of every western democracy, republic or free society by any governance because Iran is out to conquer and destroy every last one of us. They have already started to spread their range of control which currently is taking a drubbing in Syria, but be assured that when all is over and the dust settles back on the rubble that Iran will have retained Damascus and the roads into Lebanon as that is their minimum requirement. The only way this can be avoided may be even more ominous as it would take making Isaiah 17:1, “The burden of Damascus. Behold, Damascus is taken away from being a city, and it shall be a ruinous heap.” a reality, something that may already be about to become fact as the only question is what will happen should Damascus fall to ISIS or al-Nusra. Would Iran turn Damascus into nothing more than rubble neighboring a fully functional international airport reserved for the private and military use by Iran? Of course they would as Iran is willing to put the entire world to the torch as by so doing they bring their salvation back from the well to deliver them the world for out of the chaos the Mahdi would return. The leadership of Iran is completely infested with what are known as ‘Twelvers’ who believe that only by spreading war and its misery and chaos far and wide encompassing the world will their perfect end times world be founded. They so not fear war, they worship it and that taints their every decision. This added to everything else we have seen from Iran would lead any sane person to believe that they will say anything while doing exactly what they believe is necessary to serve their ends. Many have yet to figure out their end desires despite it being unbelievably simple, it is the same destiny as proclaimed by ISIS and included in the Hamas Charter, conquest and purification, read all convert to their version of Islam or die, of society and rid it of all who refuse their superiority in all things starting with their religious beliefs. The sole difference is that ISIS and Hamas are Sunni and Iran Shiite making our final choice limited to who wins, if it is Iran we will all be Shiites or dead, if it is ISIS we will all be Sunnis (their definition which is very likely far more radical than mainline Sunnis) or dead, if it is Hamas we will all be Sunnis (their definition which is very much more radical than mainline Sunnis) or dead. There is an overriding theme to their vision of the future but there is another choice beyond the surrendering to Allah and his designated but self-proclaimed supreme leaders and authoritarian, imperial tormentors and the judgmental inquisitor of all that is acceptable and holy; we can nip this in the bud while it has not fully metastasized and their cancerous imperative spread and gained sufficient power to complete their fantasized dreams making their heaven on earth which for many, myself prominently in the category, will be someplace quite a bit less inviting and certainly quite permanent.

 

Humor me a little aside which will lead to one of my favorite Winston Churchill quotes. One has to realize the greatness that was Winston Churchill which could not be completely appreciated until recent events though some of us took his warnings to heart as we saw the coming threat far back. Winston Churchill warned the West about the rise of Nazi horrors and the true nature of Adolph Hitler’s ambitions. For some time the West, meaning mostly Europe, the United States and the other western powers have had the realization, or perhaps more of a belief, that the world could not be conquered by one nation without the total destruction of the world. They theorized that anybody even fathoming as a possible theory the conquest of the world would inevitably see the radical increase in damage and destructive consequences of war, especially the use of nuclear weapons which brought forth the Japanese surrender, this interpolating would see the folly of attempting to conquer the world as doing so would bring about its destruction and one would be inheriting a smoldering and mostly uninhabited world taken back to the Stone Age. Unfortunately, the whole of humanity has not figured this out or they have conceived of a plan by which the world will not be entirely laid waste and the conquest and subjugation of the world and its population is still possible. Winston Churchill warned the world about Stalin and Communism coining the terminology of ‘Iron Curtain’ in his speech given at Westminster College of Fulton, Missouri, where he stated,

“From Stettin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic, an iron curtain has descended across the continent. Behind that line lie all the capitals of the ancient states of Central and Eastern Europe. Warsaw, Berlin, Prague, Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade, Bucharest and Sofia, all these famous cities and the populations around them lie in what I must call the Soviet sphere, and all are subject in one form or another, not only to Soviet influence but to a very high and, in some cases, increasing measure of control from Moscow. Athens alone – Greece with its immortal glories – is free to decide its future at an election under British, American and French observation.”

Finally, Winston Churchill defined the threat and nature of Islam in his original writing of “The River War” when it was first published as a two-volume set edition in 1899, but this selection was removed when the book was condensed into one volume and republished edition in 1902 though no reason could be found for the reasoning other than to shorten the book a number of quotes, especially the longer quotes, as this is, were removed. The quote here defines Winston Churchill’s cognitive and conclusive notes of the pervasive religious shortcoming of resisting the advances of science but mostly he relates his observations of both individual Muslims and the overriding societal whole under Islam. Let’s let the quote speak for itself.

“How dreadful are the curses which Mohammedanism lays on its votaries! Besides the fanatical frenzy, which is as dangerous in a man as hydrophobia in a dog, there is this fearful fatalistic apathy. The effects are apparent in many countries, improvident habits, slovenly systems of agriculture, sluggish methods of commerce, and insecurity of property exist wherever the followers of the Prophet rule or live.
A degraded sensualism deprives this life of its grace and refinement, the next of its dignity and sanctity. The fact that in Mohammedan law every woman must belong to some man as his absolute property, either as a child, a wife, or a concubine, must delay the final extinction of slavery until the faith of Islam has ceased to be a great power among men.
Individual Muslims may show splendid qualities, but the influence of the religion paralyses the social development of those who follow it. No stronger retrograde force exists in the world. Far from being moribund, Mohammedanism is a militant and proselytizing faith. It has already spread throughout Central Africa, raising fearless warriors at every step; and were it not that Christianity is sheltered in the strong arms of science, the science against which it had vainly struggled, the civilization of modern Europe might fall, as fell the civilization of ancient Rome.”

Lastly I would like to close with one final quote which addresses in its time the threat which was being ignored in Europe and the possibility of the threat becoming so overwhelming as to make victory impossible. We may be witnessing the exact same scenario concerning current threats largely because our political leaders are too intimidated to speak the truth. They have been cowed by Political Correctness which has blinkered their eyes and closed their mouths. We can either hope and pray that our leaders collectively awaken from their stupor and rub the war weariness from their eyes and see the danger lurking just around the corner should certain events take a turn for the worse and we wait too long hoping that what we fear is not what we wish to avoid so what we see we visualize as a lesser threat which can be resolved without risk. If our violence averted society rejects even the just war then we will face extermination or at the very least the inversion and destruction of the freedoms we enjoy but refuse to defend. Winston Churchill described this scenario far better than I ever will as his mastery of the language was exquisite while mine is somewhat more of a blunt instrument beating people over the head repeatedly if that is what it takes. Churchill wrote

“If you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a small chance of survival. There may even be a worse case: you may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves.”

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

The Israeli Iran and Obama Dilemma

 

What do you do when you presumed ally’s leader appears to have joined the other side? This is only the tip of the iceberg that Israel and her elected Prime Minister will be facing when the new government is formed sometime this month, possibly towards the end of the month as the forming of a coalition often takes the threat of an impending deadline to alter demands into something more tenable. The Framework Agreement has not made the dilemma any simpler as it appears that every party to the negotiations walked away with a completely different piece of paper or each translation took great amounts of liberty with definitions of the terms. Whatever the actual cause, the statements coming out of Washington D.C. and out of Tehran, Iran appear to be diametric opposites. The classic example is the claim by the Administration in Washington D.C. that the Iranians will be limited to using their slowest, least productive and most problematic centrifuges while the Iranians have had numerous military, civilian and IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) commanders relate that at the date the agreement is signed they will be able to fully implement the use of their advanced IR-8 centrifuges which are twenty-times as productive and reliable as compared to their earliest models. Such gaps in interpretations of the Framework Agreement does not bode well for reaching any desired result in a final agreement with both sides permitted their own so very liberal translations and definition of the terminology. These disparate readings of the Framework Agreement should signal to Secretary of State Kerry and the negotiating team that their attempts to make the wording inconclusive in its desired definitions which has apparently led to such a different take on the Framework Agreement which is probably best served reading the French and European Union versions which are so opaque and generalized using terminology which was technically meaningless leaving the entire document a singular masterpiece in diplospeak doubletalk worthy of a George Orwell novel.

 

The definitions and interpretations are even less worrisome for the Israelis as they probably have yet to receive a copy of the Framework in any language. The one saving grace is that the Israelis do not need to research the Framework and what might be concluded from the disparate interpretations; they need only consider whatever the Iranians believe is the intent. As much as President Obama has raked the United States relationship with Israel over hot coals and through a harvester shredder, the United States President does not pose any threat or difficulty by having a unique definition of the terms in the Framework while whatever the Iranians discern from the document is potentially a direct threat to Israel and her survival. Yes, it is true that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was chanting “Death to America” right along with the throngs chanting and cheering right along with their leader, the same man also this past weekend called for the destruction of Israel referring to Israel as that “barbaric” Jewish State which “has no cure but to be annihilated.” The Iranian Supreme Leader went on to present a strategy titled “Nine key questions about the elimination of Israel” which was also placed on his Twitter account Saturday night where he used the hashtag of #handsoffalaqsa, an oblique reference to the continuing terrorist riots and other tensions on the Temple Mount especially in reference to the right for Jews and other non-Muslims to pray on the holy site to three religions. The Ayatollah’s plans laid out a political path to replacing Israel completely with an Islamic run state where the Jews and other non-Muslims would necessarily be forced to accept Dhimmitude and a life of constant disgrace and the downtrodden shame as second class citizens living at the grace and good tidings of their Muslim masters. What he left out and even went so far as to claim his plan did not include was the death of the Jews living in the area once the Muslims were granted rule as at any point the Muslim rulers could give the Jews the choice of paying the Jiyza special tax or converting to Islam and eventually at their whim change that choice replacing the Jiyza tax making the new choice between conversion to Islam or death. Should any Jew choose to convert, if any Muslim believed that the Jew was not a true and faithful believer in Islam, they could bring charges which would inevitable result in the death penalty for apostasy. That is the truth behind the nine point plan by the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

 

But there is another bothersome problem which has raised it head some claim as many as four different times. Israel, as an ally, so as not to interfere with or be mistaken for a hostile force, will present any military plans to the United States Pentagon who shares these plans with the White House. Off the top I recall once when it was understood that the Israelis would be granted overflight permission which would include potentially refueling of F-15 and F-16 Fighter-Bombers over Saudi Arabian territories potentially just before launching a raid into Iran and potentially repeating such a refueling on their return flight. This was a quiet, under the radar, under even the kitchen table as this was obviously a super sensitive and secret permission being extended by the Saudis. Any revelation of such permission of such a sensitive and volatile agreement would immediately cause massive denials from both sides and the agreement would crash and burn. Not all that surprising but that was exactly what occurred at some point before said raid was launched when somehow the news of this agreement between Saudi Arabian rulers and Israel leaked to the press with in the aftermath it becoming obvious that the leak originated not with the Pentagon but with either the White House or the State Department, which it actually was is irrelevant as the real source of the leak was much closer if not actually to the top man in the White House. Months upon months later there was an arrangement for Israel to lease a pair of derelict unused military airfields in Azerbaijan which both lay a short distance north of Iran. The agreement might have been for these airbases to solely be used in cases of emergency such as a damaged or short on fuel fighter jet needed a landing point for repair or refueling as they would otherwise not be capable of making the entire return trip to Israel from their mission over Iran. Once again there was a leak that Azerbaijan was working with and assisting the Israelis on a potential attack on the Iranian nuclear sites. Needless to say but the complete rejection of there being such a plan was claimed and sworn to by both sides. Again the leak was traced back to the White House. Obviously Israel has a problem informing the United States about any plans to address the Iranian nuclear program in a manner separate from the Framework or any negotiated agreement but rather a more direct approach.

 

There is another problem with the United States when it would come for Israel to launch an assault on the Iranian nuclear sites or any other targets which might be included in such a scenario, and that is the fact that there are probably always two aircraft carriers and the airbase at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and within range of any Israeli attack route on Iran. These United States assets matter because it has also been rumored that the United States forces in the region have orders to intercept the Israelis and force them to return to their bases in Israel or face being shot out of the air. The actual leaked information stated that the United States pilots were to make it as difficult as possible but not to shoot at the Israeli aircraft first but to sweep them from the skies as soon as one fired at a United States aircraft or ship. These intercepts were to be taken over Iraqi airspace which is technically under United States security until the Iraqi Air Force is competent enough to do the job themselves. Needless to point out that the most direct route for Israeli aircraft would take them over Jordanian airspace followed by Iraq airspace and in reverse order upon their return to Israel. A further problem might exist within the Israeli political and military command and personnel where there are those who firmly believe that nothing Israeli has plans to do should be attempted until they receive affirmation of their plans by the United States. In many cases that person is also a member of the Prime Minister’s inner security Cabinet. One such was Defense Minister Ehud Barak who was feeding intelligence and all plans in detail directly to the White House and quite possibly directly to President Obama. Odds are this was done with the knowledge of Prime Minister Netanyahu and it is possible or even likely that it was Bibi Netanyahu who has ordered the exchange of information, especially on plans for attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites.

 

This leads to the current Israeli dilemma on what path to take and whether any or every plan should be shared with Israeli allies. Israeli leadership does need to take under consideration the obvious fact that President Obama has an apparent amorous desire to complete a deal with Iran and nurture said plan while building up the Iranian power granting them recognition and respect while protecting the Iranians from threats of a military address to destroy their nuclear program by preventing that option from being taken off the table and put into practice. It appears that President Obama and his closest advisors not only seek to empower Iran granting them hegemonic powers throughout the Middle East and even into South East Asia, Northern Africa and Eastern Europe, surpassing Israeli powers in similar areas, and completing this shakeup and restructuring of the Middle East, the President seems set on pressing Israel to take steps President Obama sees as the solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict even if those steps end up being performed unilaterally and result in Hamas or ISIS taking control over Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and causing a direct threat to the Israeli heartlands where close to three-quarters of her citizens reside and an even higher percentage of her infrastructure, industry, manufacturing, commercial and service industries exist. Pulling back to the borders envisioned by President Obama would return Israel to the borders which would permit any attack on Israel from Judea and Samaria to cut Israel completely in half isolating the Galilee from the Negev and destroying and occupying a quarter of Israel simply by advancing the approximately the diameter of the Washington D.C. Capital Beltway which is just a smidge over nine miles. That is the width of the central neck of Israel should she be forced back to the Green Line, the pre-June 1967 Six Day War. As modern artillery is capable of firing well beyond ten miles with great effect and accuracy, simply mounting artillery batteries almost anywhere in western Judea and the Arab forces could systematically destroy all of central Israel within a single twenty-four hour period. Israel would not need fear an attack by missiles from Iran when artillery from Iran would do just as well if not better and cost far less. This would be the biggest gift President Obama could grant Iran, even better than the ambiguous Framework and the agreement to follow. This was why it was assumed even in the United Nations that Israel would be allowed to retain the lands of Judea and Samaria and any refugees would be settled within the country where they were located and considered an even treatment as Israel absorbed many hundreds of thousands refugees from Middle Eastern and North African Arab and Muslim states by 1960 as these were Jews chased from their homes and towns where they had resided often for over fifteen-hundred-years, some even over two-thousand-years.

 

All those who have been claiming that all Israel has to worry about is surviving the remainder of President Obama’s term in the White House, this is far from true. Israel is facing so numerous threats of annihilation and from so many directions that it is almost impossible to get one’s arms around it. Even Egypt and Jordan, two nations which have made their peace with Israel and now reside with frosty borders and relations, have at least kept those borders peaceful. There are even those occasions where Israel will take steps to aid Jordan and Egypt and they, mostly Egypt, have been known to take measures which assist Israeli survival. The greatest example of such cooperation has been the enforcement by the Egyptians of their own embargo and strict rules enforced for passage through the Rafah Gate into the Sinai Peninsula from Gaza. This is not done by Egypt completely out of friendship as much as it is due to the assistance that Hamas provides the terrorist groups located in the Sinai Peninsula who attacks Egyptian soldiers, border guards, and even attack Egyptian resorts located in the Sinai Peninsula along the coast of the Red Sea. The truth is Iran is also a threat to Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and all of the other Arab Sunni nations with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Egypt and so on. Currently the Iranian threat and control has spread to some very challenging areas where they threaten far more than Israel. Iran is openly supplying arms and also IRGC soldiers to Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad along with Hezballah terrorist forces from Lebanon allowing al-Assad to survive against ISIS and the other rebel groups. Iran has great influence over the Shia majority in Iraq and is assisting the fighting again ISIS in Iraq. This is not entirely altruistic as it is a definitive possibility, some might say inevitability, that ISIS has plans for engaging Iran directly at some point once it gets control over Iraq.

 

Furthermore, Iranian backed Houthis are moving directly across Yemen and have already swept the United States backed government from the capital and disbanded replacing themselves as the rulers of Yemen. Yemen is doubly important as it furthers the Iranian encirclement of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. Their reaching the southwest corner of Yemen gives Iran control of the Bab el Mandeb Strait (Arabic: باب المندب‎) which translates as “Gateway of Anguish”, or “Gateway of Tears” and is important because it connects through its narrow waterway the exit from the Red Sea, which includes all shipments from the Israeli port of Eilat and the Jordanian port of al-Aqabah and ships passing southward through the Suez Canal, into the Gulf of Aden and on to the Arabian Sea and the east coast of Africa or on to the Indian Ocean and all of Asia. This would be an additional maritime choke point which matches well with their ability to shut down the Straits of Hormuz which is the choke point for the Persian Gulf through to the Gulf of Oman and on to the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean with passing through the straits what is claimed to be at least one-third of the world’s oil. Should Iran ever close both of these points then international trade would be greatly hampered and Europe would basically have to take the old route around the Cape of Good Hope or across the Atlantic Ocean and through the Panama Canal and across the Pacific Ocean which would be longer but some might believe it provides safer waterways. Still, closing these two passages would still bring much of maritime trade to a screeching halt while greatly increasing shipping times and place a burden on retail outlets to raise their prices on many if not all imported goods.

 

Finally, the biggest threat of an nuclear armed Iran is the threats posed to Israel and other nations of a nuclear armed Saudi Arabia, a nuclear armed Egypt with the potential to have the Muslim Brotherhood return to power, a nuclear armed Turkey, Syria, Hezballah, al-Qaeda, nuclear armed UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and who knows who else as terror elements gain access to nuclear weapons supplied by their state sponsors such as Iran or Saudi Arabia. The spread of nuclear armed states spreading throughout the Muslim world might inspire and motivate other nations to begin their own nuclear armed program and they might receive assistance from other new nuclear powers. The fact is that a nuclear armed Iran would forever alter the balances of power everywhere. We very well might need to adjust to a world without any restraints on who can have nuclear weapons and it simply becomes anybody with the cash to finance their breakout point making it realistic for every nation who really desires such weapons. Of course if your neighbor decides to join the nations with nuclear weapons stockpiles and then another neighbor announced their advanced program and claims to have developed thermo-nuclear devices, hydrogen bombs, and has produced a number of those in their stockpile, how long before the nation, now surrounded by nuclear armed neighbors, makes the only logical decision they can for their future survival they begin their own nuclear weapons research and development. As we pointed out in our April 7, 2015, article titled Historic Lessons and Future Nuclear War where we traced some of the super weapons through the ages as man developed from clubs to thermonuclear devices which can level whole cities or destroy only the electronic infrastructure bring a nation to its knees, we realized that there has never been the development of a super weapon which was not used, sometimes these weapons made such a difference that it decided which trail the human genome traveled from that one crucial super weapon for that warfare. We also found that often the super weapon from the last war is the standard for weapons used in the next war and thus one can only deduce that there will be a future war where some form of nuclear weapon will be used on the battlefield which may easily lead to an exchange of nuclear weapons which might be misinterpreted as a launch and use their nuclear weapons against their enemies while they are still able and the spread continues from this one episode to a conflagration which would be immeasurable. All this might be the eventuality after Iran becomes a nuclear armed state and it spreads through the Arab and Muslim worlds and from there beyond spanning the globe. Perhaps holding such power under one’s control will temper their arrogances and put their pride and conceits in perspective and nation shall choose to no longer lift their sword against their neighbor as war might then draw too large a cost to even be imagined. But what about the terrorist entities of which there are a number who are supplied by Iran which include Hezballah and Hamas, both of which border Israel and have started conflicts using every weapon they could muster. What will be the result if these entities are given access to nuclear weapons which they could then use against Israeli cities? Additionally, Iran has been attempting to gain favor and supply Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas’s Palestinian Authority which occupy Judea, Samaria and have access to all of Jerusalem and control the Temple Mount through the use of civil disturbances and rioting. Should Fatah receive a nuclear device it would not be impossible to place it in a vehicle, likely a stolen vehicle from within Israel and sporting Israeli citizen plates granting it free travel with relative ease. Such a situation could result in such a device being set to detonate right outside the Knesset Parliament Building and possibly even timed to coincide with a second device being set-off in central Tel Aviv. Such an attack would leave Israeli little choice but to strike back and to do so with the ferocity of a wounded mother protecting her children as that would be exactly what Israel would be engaged in, protecting those Children of Israel who had survived despite having much of her heart torn from within her. Never Again also meant that we would never allow the Masada ending to be played out again and no longer would Israel sit still to be carved-up by her neighbors, Never Again!

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Obama Desires Testing Surrender to Iran

President Obama has responded to new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s laying of bait when it was reported in the German news source, Spiegel Online, Iran is “prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges.” President Rouhani expects that in return for decommissioning the heavily fortified Fordo facility that the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the United Nations and all others would rescind there sanctions. There is no mention by Iran that they plan on closing any of their other enrichment plants such as the one in Qom and a suspected recently opened new location which has been tentatively identified. With no guarantees that Iran would be willing to let a schedule for the dismantling of the rest of its nuclear sites including all of their enrichment sites, their plutonium producing reactor, their ballistic missile research, and their high explosive and trigger mechanism test areas setting all sanctions aside would completely free the Iranians to continue their steady movement towards nuclear weapons and their delivery systems without paying any price. There should be no difficulty in totally rejecting such an offer out of hand without having to think very hard.

But President Obama is a deep thinker who must mull over every decision and offer well beyond the point of distraction. Often there must be those advisors who feel like yelling, “What is so difficult about this?” when waiting for the Ditherer in Chief to make decisions after being briefed.  During an interview with Spanish-language network Telemundo on Tuesday, Obama said. “There is an opportunity here for diplomacy, and I hope the Iranians take advantage of it. There are indications that Rouhani, the new president, is somebody who is looking to open dialogue with the West and with the United States, in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. And so we should test it.” If the President by “test it” means measure the level and consider actions commensurate with the depth of the Iranian commitment, then perhaps he is working with a full understanding and not simply seeking a path for complete surrender rescinding all of the United States sanctions relieving all pressure from the Iranian economy and allowing any ability to force change to evaporate in that instant. The level of President Obama’s shallowness has been well defined, especially in foreign affairs, so we only need to measure the intent and honesty of Iranian President Rouhani to predict what to expect.

The recent news coverage of the election of President Hassan Rouhani has showered him with praises and the gentle mantle of peacemaker and the standard of reasonableness by which one could measure all others against. The depth of slavish praises has been worthy of that heaped by preteen young girls on their teen idols it has been so blindingly one-sided. The only fly in the ointment has been the warnings coming from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and numerous other leaders of the ruling coalition in Israel. So, which side is right? Could it be possible that the Israelis know something that the rest of the Western media and political leadership don’t know making Israel right and the rest of the world is making a dangerous mistake? That hardly would seem likely simply because it is preposterous to believe that the entire Western World and all of their intelligence agencies and thousands upon thousands of experts and advisors could all be misjudging the new President in Iran and only little Israel can tell that the emperor is wearing no shimmering cloak of reasonableness and virtue.

So, what can we divine from the past actions, positions and other information about the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani? The very first item that must be considered is exactly how he became the President of Iran. Presumably he won in an election which actually is just a pretense used to mask the dictatorial nature of the clerical rulers over Iran. It is a given that Rouhani was the personally approved candidate above all others as decided by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani was among the names which were brought to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Assembly of Experts had reviewed the candidates who were seeking to be included on the ballot and removed any undesirables, questionable or other disqualifications leaving a core group of candidates considered loyal to the clerical leadership and considered acceptable to build whatever foreign and domestic story the clerical leadership had planned going forward. Best guess is that after President Ahmadinejad the clerical leadership was seeking a candidate who would be well spoken with a calming demeanor with no history of fanaticism or obvious ties to the<a href=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-ithna-ashari.htm> Twelvers</a> and one who was extremely familiar with the mannerisms and negotiation style of the Western World. This definition is almost the exact resume of Hassan Rouhani who was a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, is well educated and well-spoken with a past that is above reproach. As wonderful as that description is, it does not mean that Rouhani is to be trusted in any negotiations as those who had met with him tell of a hard negotiator who is persuasive and manipulative often concealing his intents behind his polished, carefully chosen words. Rouhani thus was the hand-picked candidate by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and therefore the winner of the elections. Any belief that Iranian elections were not a ruse used to give a democratic shield behind which to camouflage a dictatorship was demolished by the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2009, thus it is understood that the person who wins such elections was actually the person anointed by the Supreme Leader.

The truth of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is he has been hand-picked to lead a deception by which Iran will make largely symbolic gestures expecting to reap huge rewards in return simply because they appear to be cooperating and President Obama is ripe for the fleecing as he is in dire need of success, real or false. This fits perfectly with the ploy by President Rouhani with his offering to decommission one of his uranium enrichment facilities and having all or most of the financially crippling sanctions removed from Iran, especially the sanctions against their exporting oil which is the Iranian most crucial trade item, the one their entire economy revolves around. Depending on the amount of success achieved by this deception the Iranian leadership will devise the next steps in their crafted path to attain nuclear weapons capability while managing to retain sufficient economic freedom from sanctions to relieve what has become a crushing situation under the ratcheted economic sanctions. It has only been the most recent sanctions that put the Iranian economy over the edge thus they do not need to attain sweeping relief from the sanctions; they just require the end of certain critical sanctions of which the sanctions on oil head the list. As President Rouhani was a previous nuclear head negotiator for the Iranians he is also very familiar and quickly brought up to date on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program and exactly what is still necessary to complete their quest in a timely manner. This past experience will serve him well as he will be able to make offers outside of the P5+1 talks, which include the five major veto holding powers of the Security Council plus Germany, thus allowing for a coordinated two-pronged assault to find and take advantage of any weaknesses or easily beguiled people such as President Obama and move rapidly with the minimal discomfort to their goal of nuclear weapons power. The description by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of equating President Hassan Rouhani with a wolf in sheep’s clothing as very accurate. He is also likely a slick fast-talker who can be glib, gracious, and disarming by a quick wit and the brushing aside of concerns or disagreements. He will likely be magnanimous if it serves his designs and hard as granite when needing to stand firm. He will have the piercing of a diamond tipped drill and the precision of a verbal surgeon as he will pick apart and cut out his needs with great skill and deftness. President Hassan Rouhani should not be underestimated and his words rarely taken at face value. One should always look for the hidden meanings and on the lookout for misdirection and baited traps which will result in allowing Rouhani the advantage he needs to gain trust or what may at the time appear to be a minor point, never take anything merely as an honest offer as there will always be a hidden meaning or path to back away after gaining the desired prize he sought. Never be at comfort in his presence and read carefully and listen well to his words and the tones and inflections he used to mask and enforce those words. To put it simply, do not trust, verify, and always suspect the worst or the biggest of deceits.

Beyond the Cusp

Addendum: After testing the will of President Obama and finding him to be beyond anxious in his desire to appear to make progress, Iranian new President Rouhani walked back the offer to decommission the Fordo Nuclear Uranium Enrichment Processing Plant. President Rouhani went even further negating that Iran was even interested in the pursuit of nuclear weapons while reclaiming the Iranian right to conduct nuclear research.