Beyond the Cusp

May 10, 2018

Was Iran the Threat Trump Claims?

 

United States President Trump pulled the Americans out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) while offering the Iranians to sit down and work out a more restrictive treaty (see video below), which President Trump assured them would benefit the world. The reality is that should a better treaty be hammered out which truly would prevent Iran from ever attaining nuclear weapons capability with an inspection regime, which assured their compliance, then this would make the world a far better place. The reality is that Iran will simply continue as they have been by doubling down on ignoring their agreements of the deal, refusing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) permission to inspect their military sites other than Fordow. That was simply the most glaring refusal of the Iranian regime.

 

 

When one adds the revelations made by Israel last week about the Iranian nuclear activities, divulging the treasure trove of records absconded with by Israeli intelligence agents (Mossad) over the period of a single night, President Trump had all the information he required to justify pulling out from the JCPOA. Still, we are amazed they could even move that many records within such a brief period of time without being challenged. The speech made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu revealing the information (see video below) was interesting in that he was not addressing the Israeli people, for that he speaks Hebrew, and was not, as many declared, speaking to President Trump; he was speaking for the benefit of the American public. President Trump, his Cabinet Members who were interested and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had already been granted full access to the information for reason of verification that they were indeed exactly as claimed and for their being informed. Prime Minister Netanyahu was making the preparation for the action taken by President Trump by revealing the full extent of the Iranian breaching of the treaty including the initial requirements for validating the treaty, thus the treaty was in reality an empty shell from the beginning. With that established and made by a credible source, President Trump could make his announcement without facing rejections of his statements claiming that he did not have actual information on whether Iran was complying or ignoring their obligations. That simply caused those who claim that President Trump cannot walk without assistance, as he is that unstable, from claiming that he was bringing the world to the brink once again. That as it may, the die is cast and President Trump gave Iran the offer to make a new deal, which they will reject instead making much bluster while continuing with their nuclear research and weapons manufacture, and now it is just a matter of time until President Trump places a time limit on his patience over Iran requesting negotiations for a new treaty. This will be where things could become quite serious including the possibility of Iran testing an actual nuclear weapon and declaring themselves a nuclear-armed power.

 

 

As far as the threat level that Iran poses, President Trump underestimated their threat levels. Much of what the Iranians are threatening across the Middle East goes well beyond Hezballah, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others within the MENA countries. Some of their threat stems from the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay (see image below), where criminal interests, terrorist training, and IRGC preparations for strikes within the Americas take place including the two attacks in Buenos Aires, the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) bombing and the bombing of the Israeli Embassy. Iran has made threats to destroy Israel as well as the United States. There have also been rising levels of threat to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States as well as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and beyond. These are the threats which President Trump referred.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

These threats are actually minimal compared to the entirety of the designs of the Ayatollahs. Their dreams and designs are a compilation of the desires of the Persian Empire to rule the known world, which has grown since their time, and the Shiite Islamic desire to spread Shia Islam to every person on Earth. This put in the most simple terms states that the Iranian leaders believe it will be their triumph in the end taking over the entirety of the Earth and converting every remaining person to Shia Islam. Their intent is to give people the choice of convert or die by beheading. They are serious about this just as they have been at enforcing their nightmarish rule over the people of Iran operating a torture operation at Evin Prison where those who protest the regime face if arrested. Despite these chilling possibilities, there have been large demonstrations against the Mullahs in 2009, which were brutally put down with numerous of the leaders simply disappearing. These demonstrations have been building once again. President Trump gave those who wish to replace their governance with something more attuned to the needs of the people and not so intent on military building and nuclear weapons development at the expense of the people and the national economy. President Trump stated that the people should be the first concern of their governance, not just an annoyance to be disregarded. This was a message that Washington D.C. will back their demonstrations this time should they decide to challenge the rule of the Mullahs. Should the Iranian people rise up, we can only hope the President is ready and willing to stand behind his encouraging words and not simply blowing smoke in their direction.

 

Iran, as dangerous as they likely currently are, could become far more of a world threat should they ever compile a nuclear weapons cache of thermos-nuclear weapons which are miniaturized making them useable as missile warheads with greater yields per unit size mountable on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) threatening the entirety of the globe from within hardened launch sites within Iran. Already it is suspected that Iranian ballistic missiles are capable of attaining four-thousand-kilometers with new plans reaching possibly over six-thousand-kilometers. Iran has also proven their ability at firing satellites into low-Earth orbit, which is the principle requirement for launching an EMP device that would be almost impossible to prevent should it reach deployment orbit and be set upon a reentry path. That aside, the weapon could be removed from orbit while it remains in its orbit by anti-satellite missiles which have been developed by Russia, China, Israel and the United States at a minimum. The Iranians went one-step further by placing a satellite in a trans-polar orbit where it crosses over the North Pole and South Pole. This also permits for an orbit which approaches the United States from a southerly direction over the Gulf of Mexico and through Texas to Louisiana passing over Kansas City and St Louis, the prime location for an EMP device to be deployed and approaching from the area where the anti-missile detection and interception capabilities are at their most limited. So, Iran is capable of orbiting satellites, firing continental ballistic missiles up to possibly five-thousand kilometers and is at the verge of producing solid fueled ICBMs and the thermonuclear warheads to place atop them, exactly how much more dangerous would make them an international concern? We would claim they already are an international concern of great weight.

 

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

 

The Iranians have been working on producing nuclear weapons since December 1984 when with the aid of China, Iran opened a nuclear research center in Isfahan. This was claimed to be for the peaceful use of nuclear power, a story we have heard before from every nation right before they test a nuclear device. The United States started from scratch with the Einstein letter in August of 1939 to plan for making a nuclear device and exploded a fully operational thermonuclear weapon at the start of November of 1952. That is from nothing to a thermonuclear device in less than fifteen years in complete secrecy. Iran was suspected of working towards nuclear weapons in late 1997 and this was stated with an earlier estimate in the 1990’s, probably in 1992. When one figures out that Iran had the advantage that in 1992 one could search the Internet for a design for a normal nuclear weapon giving them a head start towards weapons research, then the fifteen-year requirement should be considered even smaller. One can even find the basic design for a thermonuclear device on the Internet; so making such devices must be far less complicated in the current time with the available free information. So, we will stay with the fifteen-year period just to be fair. So, if we decide for the sake of fairness using 1995 as the start point for the Iranian nuclear research into weapons. That would mean that Iran should have been fully capable for the manufacture of thermonuclear warheads certainly by 2010. As the JCPOA was signed initially in November of 2013, three years after Iran should have already found a system for the production of a thermonuclear device, we can probably also assume that the JCPOA was signed closing the nuclear barn-house door well after the thermonuclear horses had escaped. Iran could have been building such weapons for three years before they entered an agreement which had little if any punitive measures and weak and limp investigatory abilities after which they could very easily have continued their manufacture of warheads. Assuming that Iranian physicists are competent and actually were working honestly on weapons development, the world should expect that Iran has at least fifty, if not several hundreds, of thermonuclear warheads sitting currently in the ground in hardened silos atop missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in Europe and across the entirety of the MENA states. Add into the formula their capability to place a satellite capable of carrying a small thermonuclear device into polar low Earth orbit, Iran already could deliver a devastating device anywhere on the planet. But that is not the end of the threat.

 

Iran is known to have also researched EMP weapons, particularly it is suspected they have developed those with nuclear and thermonuclear devices as their trigger systems. These EMP devices could be capable of setting off a continent wide EMP pulse if detonated between thirty and three-hundred miles. It could effect anywhere from a closed area to a near open area including all of the United States (see image below). The outlines of the range of a strong device detonated at three-hundred miles altitude are purely frightening. Imagine turning off the electricity for up to as much as a decade across North America or Europe or almost fifteen-hundred mile radius effect anywhere on the globe. This is a threat that Iran may have already produced weapons with such capability as any nuclear device can be modified such that it has a stronger EMP pulse effect and a lower yield. This means if they choose less of an explosive shock, that they can maximize the EMP effects of their weapon crippling any nation which has not fortified their electrical distribution grids. The really scary item is that very few, if any, nations have bothered to spend the necessary funds to fortify their grids to protect them from an EMP device. This is despite this effect being known since the middle of the 1950’s.

 

The United States carried out a test of the EMP effect with a test in the early 1960’s finding that a moderate strength device exploded over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of two-hundred-fifty miles and found the device affected electrical distribution in Hawaii approximately nine-hundred miles distant. This was beyond their expected range and this was a weapon not specifically set to maximize the EMP effect. The EMP Pulse has multiple ranges of effect which cause electrical devices an entire series of stresses which maximizes the numbers and types of electronic devices and how they are potentially destroyed. The more nations allow their electrical grids to remain susceptible to the adverse effects of EMP pulse attacks, the more expensive it becomes to protect their systems in the future. The advantage of hardening electrical grids as early as possible is that once they have been hardened, keeping the entirety of the grid hardened as time continues and the system grows, is that such hardening can be included in building regulations thus all upgrades and additions to the systems will retain the advantages made by the hardening of their electrical grids. The United States figured that it would have been implemented in three-to-five years at a cost of ten-to-twenty billion dollars back in 2008. This would have included hardening the entirety of the system. Even after this has been performed, devices plugged into the system could still be susceptible and should the Congress pass new standards today which required all future electronic devices which will be powered by the electrical grid to be made less susceptible to EMP pulses, it would need to give industry around three years in order for new power supplies to be designed and all the old power supplied to be sold or upgraded, perhaps a decade later devices would be made EMP immune. Even if they were only required to only build power supplies to be fifty percent less susceptible, within a decade almost all moderate quality devices would be near hundred percent protected simply because the public would demand such protection once EMP was raised by such that it became something sellers could use in their commercials in order to claim their protection was superior than their competitor. If you want proof, look at the many food cereals which claim to be healthy and their specific amounts of the different kinds of fats, triglycerides, omega-3 fatty acids, calories and you name what else, but they will each claim they have the magic combination which researchers claim will make the healthy eater drool.

 

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

 

Seatbelts were originally an option on vehicles and the commercials showed the great advantages to wearing them. Within a few years, virtually every car had seatbelts standard and then soon after the Congress made them mandatory. Then came the tree-point seatbelts and they were standard even in the sub-compacts and then Congress made them mandatory. Air quality and water quality has been cleaned up well beyond what the laws written half a decade later required by industry simply due to the pressure the people placed on cleaning up the environment and industry responded and there were even commercials which stated the advances the production of some products were using at their factories to reduce pollution. The upper limits on people-power on manufacturers are near beyond the ability for us to measure. You probably would like us to prove this point, and so we will. Back on April 23, 1985, the Coca-Cola Company decided to release their great new idea, “New Coke,” and it ended up being less exciting than hoped. The BIG problem was that they discontinued their old formula and discarded it once and for all betting the company on their new product. All their testing had proven this product to outperform Pepsi with Pepsi drinkers. There was a small problem with their research, they forgot to test Coke drinkers. As it turns out, Coke drinkers were quite pleased with the standard Coke product and were quite distressed when this new more Pepsi-ish formula replaced it. Well, within a rather short period, on July 11, 1985, seventy-eight days after New Coke’s introduction, Classic Coke was announced. It was the old formula making its return after a short hiatus. That is what the power of the people demanding their preference can do.

 

Congress will claim that their regulations have done so much to improve our lives, the reality is the people demanding companies meet their expectations has done so much and Congress, late as usual, has jumped on the bandwagon after the companies have already circled the wagons and put their ducks in a row meeting the people’s demands. The politicians have to have their talking points, and that is all they usually are and they are depending on the people not realizing that it was their power that got the changes and Congress just jumped in at the end and is attempting to steal all the credit. Yes, they are a bunch of over-pious, overly-righteous, self-promoting egomaniacs who believe that the people really are that easily fooled. We wish they were not so close to reality on that assumption and being informed is what makes people less susceptible to the politicians stroking them just to get their vote and then serve the moneyed interests who paid for the town hall meeting and barbeque that gained them the votes. When the people demand that their electrical providers harden their service system, that is when it will be performed. Once the entirety of the nations is hardened, then Congress will require it and put aside tons of money presumably to harden the electrical grid. The money will be given to the surviving providers to repay them for what the people forced them into action and performing. Congress, always is there with the money, just after the fact more often than not.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

January 4, 2018

Iran plus Korea Update

 

Iranian protests against economic stagnation, disinterest of the government placing foreign wars they chose above its people and against an oppressive regime which strangles their youth and their desires to be free and live as they choose. There have been over two or three dozen already murdered and many hundreds arrested with a good number of those likely to never be seen again and the only reaction from the government has been to televise pro-government demonstrations which were more likely than not staged using IRGC* and Basij Militias members who are a small minority of the nations but extremely loyal to the regime. Both organizations are religiously fanatical as is the government. The Iranian top leadership is made up of religious clerics, the Mullahs, who hand pick who are permitted to run for elected office thus making their appearance of democracy merely that, appearance. Nobody who would work against the Mullahs and their program of continuing the revolution spreading it at every opportunity to the remainder of the world would ever be permitted to stand for election to office. Worse yet, the elected officials also would be fully supportive of any measures the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader decide are necessary to end the protests including mass shootings of demonstrators in the streets. That is the point where many would really be interested in exactly how far President Trump and the United States might go should this become reality and hundreds, if not thousands or tens of thousands were to be gunned down on the streets of Iran.

 

The first thing to remember is that President Trump was elected largely on his domestic policy promises of curbing immigration and economic improvement through tax reform and regulations rollback. As we might recall, his slogan was “Make America Great Again” or MAGA. That is completely separate from intervening or making threats simply to prevent Iran from putting an end to internal protests which the government has already blamed on Israel and the United States claiming that the CIA and Mossad are the leaders implementing and fomenting the protest in an attempt to derail the revolution which is the core principle under which the Iranian regime operates. What it comes down to is would the United States actually resort to use of arms to prevent further regime violent pushback against the protests. Our best guess is as such, beyond what President Trump would be willing to authorize, he would first instead attempt to get United Nations Security Council to enact enforceable sanctions on Iran and, lacking that, placing United States sanctions and attempting to get other allies to also impose sanctions. As far as Security Council sanctions are concerned, after the United States veto of the Security Council vote to forbid nations from placing their embassies in Jerusalem and condemning President Trump recognizing Jerusalem making it an international city under United Nations protection from Israeli overreach, we could probably count on Russia using their veto to protect Iran from the mean United States and possibly even adding that the United States move was being taken to serve Israeli interests and nothing more. As far as getting European countries to join in sanctions, at best a few of the eastern Europeans might join in sanctions and otherwise, at best, the British might also join but Germany, France and the remainder of the European Union have Euros in their eyes when they visualize Iran and are too self-absorbed in taking advantage of monetary opportunities to join in sanctioning their potential money pit. United States sanctions of and by themselves would have little if any effect on Iran and would do little to prevent them from doing as they please, even to slaughtering the protesters en-masse, in ending the protests against the government.

 

Even if President Trump in normal times in a normal world wanted to prevent the murder of the protesters, he would need to be extremely wary of intervening as such actions would inevitably result in war. The citizens of the United States did not elect President Trump to get them into another war in the Middle East and the quickest way to assure that he would be a one term President would be to engage in another Middle East war. The United States electorate would hold him responsible and in 2020 they would elect almost anybody other than Donald Trump were he to cause a war with Iran. Further, President Trump has enough on his plate with North Korea and a looming potential for a war on that front, and even that war would be a difficult sell. The main reason that a war with North Korea might be more palatable to the United States people is Kim Jong-Un is an identifiable threat and has been pressing all the wrong buttons challenging the United States almost calling them every derogatory name in the book and despite many of those names being directed at Trump, they have not been received well by the United States voters. The United States has danced this dance with leaders from North Korea for years with each go around costing more than the previous and they are willing to risk war rather than give in to blustering blackmail. For a parallel one need look to the Barbary Pirates who would sell protection for sailors and then still kidnap United States sailors off merchant ships to ransom with along with the constantly rising price demanded for protection finally drove even President Thomas Jefferson, a devout isolationist as far as wars were concerned, to declare war on the Barbary Pirates and their respective Caliphs. North Korea is very likely approaching a similar point with the United States currently and if they push too hard, they may get something they really had not bargained for.

 

President Trump likely has little desire to enter into any wars. Iran probably is not prepared to fight a war with the United States at this moment. China does not desire to war with the United States in particular. Japan very much desires to avoid any costly wars, as their financial situation is quite precarious and just recently starting to recover. Kim Jong-Un, despite his bluster, would likely prefer to live a long life. Russian President Putin is seeking some means of extricating himself out of the war raging in Syria while retaining his naval bases on the Mediterranean Sea. Europe could not fight a meaningful war even if it was brought to their shores. Turkish President Erdoğan is prepared to fight the Kurds in order to extend his domain but is not prepared to go beyond such. Even Israel’s neighbors are not seeking an active war with Israel with Hamas settling to toss a rocket or two out of Gaza each week and Hezballah already stretched to the breaking point between Syria, Yemen and retaining control in Lebanon. Egypt has barely sufficient taste for conflict to hold its cities in the Sinai Peninsula while terrorist groups mass there for future conflict, and even they are looking towards future and hoping Egypt does not feel its hand pushed too far and react against their hold on the area. So why is North Korea‘s Kim Jong-Un testing ICBM’s and other missiles as well as nuclear weapons? Why has Japan altered the Japanese Constitution to allow them, for the first time since World War II, to increase their armaments, military size and is debating the development, which means using the technology they already possess, of nuclear weapons intended as a deterrent? Why is Iran instigating conflicts across the Middle East in Iraq, Syria and Yemen while developing ever-longer range ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons and possibly even building stockpiles of such weapons? Why has there been all the chest thumping between Kim Jong-Un and President Trump with the most recent round on Twitter being an exchange of Tweets about their nuclear button size on one another’s desk? Why is Iran once again pressing an internal conflict followed by the world to the point where sanction may very well be imposed once again? None of these acts signals a world seeking completely peaceful solution to their problems both internal and external. The two most dangerous, currently, are Iran and North Korea as we mentioned just the other day. So, why not take one last look at them and their pressing all the wrong buttons with the United States and why.

 

First North Korea, as it may be the less complicated situation currently. Kim Jong-Un did take an unexpected move and respond to urgings from the newly elected South Korean President Moon Jae-in, elected this past May of 2017, for binational talks to defuse the building tensions emanating from North Korea. The danger is that these talks fail to resolve the international situation while South Korea, currently in a mood to redress past grievances and mending fences while absolving differences. There is even some mood to sacrifice in order to reunify the Korean Peninsula should a proper and beneficial proposition be presented, though the possibilities of this are next to nil. The problem is the unknown and unpredictable results of these talks. Fears are that North Korea will press for reunification with some form of unity governance headed by Kim Jong-Un which South Korea would be foolish to permit. Almost as bad an omen would be for North Korea to offer to curb their missile tests and nuclear testing and development in exchange for aid running in the tens if not thousands of billions of dollars to be paid largely by the United States in exchange for a treaty and an end to this round of extortion. Such a demand could not come at a worse opportunity as President Trump is unlikely to swallow such a demand quietly and would likely enter into a very dangerous game of chicken with Kim Jong-Un which, with the slightest miscalculation, results in an open conflict potentially nuclear in nature. Such a conflict would have the immediate consequences of the devastation of Seoul and most if not all of South Korea, the destruction of almost all large cities of Japan, and an exchange between the United States responding to the attacks by North Korea where North Korea would also cease to be recognizable while a number of United States major cities would end up destroyed or worse, a Super EMP detonation over Kansas City area wiping out the North American electrical grid potentially destroying over half of the main transformers upon which the grid is dependent. What would follow would very likely be extremely destructive for much of the world should China, Russia or anyone else left standing decide it was time to strike while the irons of war were hot only to run afoul of the United States submarine nuclear retaliatory forces which are quite formidable and perfectly capable of carrying out countering any threat to the United States, especially the few naval and air bases which would remain to the United States military which is spread across the globe and thus would still be operational even if in a somewhat less formidable manner. When a nation is capable of destroying the entirety of the planet hundreds of times over, even twenty percent force power is sufficient to make anyone hesitate pressing too far.

 

World at War from 1984 by George Orwell

World at War from 1984 by George Orwell

 

Iran, on the other hand, is a completely different kettle of fish. Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei is tasked with the spread of the Grand Islamic Revolution which brought the initial and previous Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini to power after United States President Jimmy Carter refused to defend Shah of Iran Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and actually signaled he should go into exile and allow Khomeini to come to power and out of his exile in Paris. President Carter was quoted as claiming that as a religious man and a cleric that Khomeini would be a man of peace and would bring a reformation to Iran which would be a positive force in settling the Middle East. President Carter really had no clue about Shiite Islam or Islam in general. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution is responsible for keeping the faith and extending the revolution, as it is called, by which in time two events will result. The first is that the Islamic world will bow to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution and see him as the Strong Horse and the Sunni Muslims will largely convert to Shia Islam rather than be put to the sword. Once the world of Islam has been conquered by the true Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, then the remainder of the world can be brought under the flag of Islam and Sharia Shiite style. This will lead to a world in conflagration which is believed to be when the Mahdi will appear and protest his being revealed to the world as explained by Nu’aym ibn Hammad who stated, “The Mahdi will not come until one third die, one third are killed, and one third remain.” One can only imagine a world which meets those criteria. This is the far vision each Iranian Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution must adhere. This is not meant to claim that the present Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei desires to force such a world into being, but that does not mean that he would be reluctant to take any position which could result in the coming of the Mahdi. The eventual aim of the Iranian version of Shiite Islam is the coming of the Mahdi and the submission of what remains of the world to Allah through Shiite Islam with no other religion permitted on Earth. Still, Iran is not ready to take on the world and this attempt to reach this desired aim to subjugate the world with it suffering two-thirds of human life snuffed from existence in a great conflict, but once they believe they have reached such a threshold, then will come a conflagration unparalleled in known human history. There are some who point to evidence that some form of humankind existed which were more advanced than our technology today and were involved in a great cataclysm ending their civilization and humankind went through an extended era where the knowledge returning to a more primitive humankind and we are only now reaching for similar technologies if not the identical technologies with which our forebearers destroyed themselves. The state of our world today gives such a theory some degree of credence.

 

The frightening reality reached in researching for this article was that we really are about to go beyond the cusp. The only question is beyond which cusp will we go? Many, if not the vast majority, of these choices would have us going beyond the cusp and finding ourselves tumbling into a deep and endless chasm and taking all of our so-called civilization with us into oblivion. There are a few narrow choices where going beyond the cusp leads the human race into the stars and eventually to a space filled initially with peace and beyond that depends on what we encounter. If we will be destined to meet extraterrestrial intelligent entities, we can only pray that they are peaceful and willing to share knowledge, technologies and the arts which make their hearts soar. But first, we will be required to get our own houses in order and eschew violence as the means of settling our differences. Truth be told, our differences are minor compared to what we may find in the stars, so we had best learn how to handle our petty differences first and foremost, then we can find the best means of coexisting or merging everything into a set of universal truths which are inclusive and satisfactory to all establishing ideals as close to the real truth as we are able. The truth is that our knowledge will never be capable of understanding the entirety of the Universe as much, if not the vast majority, will remain beyond that which we can see and every minute we spend trapped as we are in this one solar system, the less and less we will ever have revealed will represent. Human curiosity is a strange beast which will insist on seeing what is around the next bend, beyond the horizon, and comes tomorrow and tomorrow in endless succession and finally, why all of these things exist and where they came from. But for now, can we at least survive without destroying civilization until we colonize another planet orbiting a different parent star. Such an accomplishment would promise survivability to the human race. After such has been achieved, then we can place starter colonies jumping from one star to the next setting up workable colonies which can grow into entirely new civilization but which will share their advancements with the rest of humankind and perhaps also other intelligent species we should meet, assuming that such exist. So, let us proceed forward and pray we choose wisely and do not falter or find ourselves at the brink of extinction with no way to prevent going beyond the cusp and falling to our deaths and as such our failings.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

* IRGC = Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

 

January 2, 2018

War with North Korea Now Inevitable….Iran?

 

Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, who served under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, told ABC News “This Week” in a Sunday interview, “We’re actually closer in my view, to a nuclear war with North Korea and in that region than we have ever been.” When queried on possible routes for negotiations or other options to actual war, he replied, “I don’t see the opportunities to solve this diplomatically at this particular point.” Mr. Mullen’s commentary on President Trump’s efforts did shed some light as he stated, “I think President Trump has made China move more than they have in the past. Whether they continue to do that to help resolve this is the open question. A real measure of how this all comes out is whether China is going to commit to a peaceful resolution here. If they don’t, then I worry a great deal that it’s much more likely there will be conflict.” On the other side of the coin, Mr. Mullen criticized President Trump stating that his actions have been “incredibly disruptive, certainly unpredictable in many many ways. Those who have been our friends for many years ask questions about our commitments to them…and our enemies, those that would do us ill, seem to be able to take advantage of the uncertainty.” Towards the end of the discussion Mr. Mullen added another worry into the mix, Iran, stating, “I worry greatly about the fact that the Iranians will bring forward a nuclear weapon capability. They were very close when the deal was struck. They can redevelop it, I think, very rapidly.” The remarks were in obvious reference to the fact that President Trump decided not to certify that Tehran as being in compliance with the treaty in October leaving the final decision to the Congress.

 

The first thing we would like to point out is that Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen has been out of the loop and not receiving briefings or other information since 2011, quite a period without such vital input for making anything other than broad conjecture. Sure, he has friends and other contacts but many of these would probably not be friendly to President Trump. We have to admit that those who are tied in any way to either the Bush family or President Obama, and Mr. Mullen served under both President George W. Bush and President Barack Obama, likely view President Trump in a dim light. With that in mind, let us proceed. First, As far as the charges of President Trump being, “incredibly disruptive, certainly unpredictable in many many ways. Those who have been our friends for many years ask questions about our commitments to them…and our enemies, those that would do us ill, seem to be able to take advantage of the uncertainty.” What does Mr. Mullen think happened under President Obama when our former allies were directly rebuked and former adversaries taken in a coddled like no nations had been so adorned with affection in American history. Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia were all thrown under the bus, Iraq and Afghanistan were evacuated prematurely, the Taliban allowed to return in Afghanistan, ISIS left unchallenged until they became a threat to the Russians who, with the help of the Kurds with President Trump’s air support and weaponry, were eliminated in approximately six months. Under President Obama Iran was rewarded for going ahead with their nuclear weapons research during negotiations, left to inspect themselves and probably had a fairly substantive stockpile of nuclear warheads to fix atop their numerous ballistic missiles. They were also left completely free to develop ballistic missiles and likely have come close if not already having an ICBM. Further, under President Obama North Korea was not sanctioned any more seriously than the United Nations would allow, which is to say nothing additional was imposed, while they developed nuclear warheads to include thermonuclear weapons and Super EMP weapons and the ICBM capable of striking at the least Chicago if not all of the globe. Calling President Trump returning to a more traditional foreign policy and supporting Israel like no president since Truman’s initial recognition, visiting and having a fairly successful summit with most of the Arab League members in Saudi Arabia and restoring our relations with Egypt while placing Iran and North Korea on notice that the party is over and they are being scrutinized once more as the problem rather than a solution a disruptive foreign policy confusing our friends and coddling our enemies explains why he was so admired by President Obama, he has friends and enemies confused just as his President had.

 

The real item here is whether or not the world, the United States in particular, is on the verge of a nuclear war with North Korea or will things inevitably go beyond the cusp leading to all out nuclear war between the United States and North Korea. The one item we agree with Mr. Mullen is that probably the second greatest influence on this entire situation is China. The leadership in China can assist President Trump in two means and work to his detriment in only one way. China has already placed a modicum of pressure on Kim Jong-Un and they can certainly do far more. The two means of assistance they can offer is, of course, putting on a full press and freezing all trade with North Korea and giving President Trump their complete support, or on a lesser note, simply letting Kim Jong-Un know that if he decides to take on the United States that he will be in that endeavor completely on his own and China will do absolutely nothing to prevent the United States from acting as deemed necessary in their own defense. Either of these will help greatly in relieving the pressure unless Kim Jong-Un is truly insane and suicidal. The one means China, or Russia, have of making the situation far more dangerous would be to make known that they are willing and capable to protect North Korea and come to their aid should the United States take any action against the regime of Kim Jong-Un, even in self-defense.

 

President Trump, Kim Jong-Un, President Xi Jinping, President Putin

President Trump, Kim Jong-Un,
President Xi Jinping, President Putin

 

That now allows another layer to be examined. We must determine if Russian President Vladimir Putin or Chinese President Xi Jinping are likely to attach their fate to that of Kim Jong-Un and would they risk war with the United States over protecting North Korea even from an American attack in response to a North Korean offensive strike. Let’s say both Russia and China were to warn-off Kim Jong-Un impressing upon him that they will not support him in attacking the United States and would only protect him from an attack were he to enter negotiations and while the negotiations progress, refrain from any testing of nuclear weapons or ballistic missiles. Even should they arrange four party talks, that should be acceptable providing the Chinese and Russians assure President Trump that their participation will not be in order to protect Kim Jong-Un but to bolster reasonable negotiations. They need also put to rest any ideas of the United States needing to bribe or in any other means reward North Korea for acting responsibly beyond loosening sanctions in stages as they prove their good intentions. The antics and threatening behavior exhibited by Kim Jong-Un is something President Trump would be well advised to make an example such that when the time comes to deal with Iran, they will understand that there will be no rewards or knuckling to threats. President Trump might even invite Russian President Putin to join in pressuring Kim Jong-Un and let the leftists scream Russian collusion anew. Their insane reaction to cooperating with Russia and possibly China as well could prove amusing and even more deranged than the current round proved. However, you slice it, North Korea is but half the problem and even once they have been tamed, there will remain Iran. We would like to close with something which the mainstream media has left unemphasized, Iran and North Korea have colluded, cooperated, traded technology, exchanged knowhow and in all ways worked together to advance their mutual nuclear and ballistic missile technology to the point of carrying out tests, one for the other, to get around sanctions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.