Beyond the Cusp

January 27, 2017

Can President Trump Cure the Ills of America?

 

The United States new leader, President Donald J. Trump, promised to “Make America Great Again.” The real question should be can he cure the United States of her illness. This disease has numerous symptoms of which we will cover a few of the most threatening. The first on the list is a sinister little one which hides in plain sight. The current reproductive rate is 1.84 children per woman which is well below the 2.33 reproductive rate necessary for maintaining a nation’s population. This simply means that the United States will have fewer workers to support an aging population and this will only grow more and more serious over time. The only obvious solution is to allow for immigration, eventually massive immigration. From all expectation, any large immigration program will lead to a rebalancing of the predominant population statistics in the favor of whichever groups of foreign nations contribute to the immigration. The most readily available populations are from Central America and South America. This has been the trending for the past decades which is leading to a growing Hispanic population which is rapidly becoming the largest minority population and with time they will become the predominant population. There is a fortunate trait in that the vast majority of such immigrants hold similar religious identities and have a Judeo-Christian ethics and history which will make for a merging of the populations and not as much a shock to the culture or as much a threat for large changes in laws and outlook of the resultant population. Should the United States instead bring in immigrants from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) there would be an inevitable confrontation between the emerging culture and the currently existing culture. If history is any indicator, an increasing Islamic minority would at some point lead to an actual confrontation which the aging Judeo-Christian community who would most definitely loses.

 

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

 

This problem has been traced from demographic studies to have a direct relation to the legalization of abortion after the 1973 Supreme Court Roe vs. Wade decision leading to nationally recognizing a legal right for a woman to obtain an abortion. The good news is that the numbers of abortions have steadily decreased over the past few decades. The not so great news is that this has not led to any measurable increase in the reproductive rate as was expected. Demographic studies have shown that couples are waiting until later in life before getting married. This had led to the obvious postponement of starting families and, as in most cases both husband and wife are professionals with careers, they often put off having a family until even later leading to many couples having a single child , or worse, deciding not to have children at all. Societal studies have also seen a trending in millennials for their deciding to forgo marriage, children and even permanent relationships instead settling to have small groups of friends who have open partnerships or some simply leading singular lives dropping in and out of relationships never desiring to become involved in a permanent relationship. Perhaps these individuals will settle down later in life but that will likely lead to a childless relationship as they may wait until past the point of fertility. Whatever the future, the current trends indicate that the only solution to the American childlessness will be through immigration and praying that the new immigrants prove immune to the childless culture as they come from a more reproductive friendly culture.

 

Islamic immigrants would also have a higher reproductive rate than the current American culture. The one catch is that it has been found that as financial wealth of a society increases, reproductive rates plummet. This was what has struck Europe and has been given as one of the reasons the political rulers have been allowing a free import of Syrian and other MENA refugees. Whether such a program was a good idea or a potential allowing for an infiltration leading to an eventual takeover by Islamic policies is something which is still being debated. Time may settle that debate before any conclusions are forthcoming. The one certainty is that many of the existing European populations are not overly excited about the newcomers and may be voting in a whole new and opposing set of leaders as elections sweep across the continent. Should Europe start to become an Islamic based society, then that may play well for solving some of the system shock for the United States as many of the elite, and any others with sufficient means, would flee Europe for the apparent safety of the United States. Much of this future will depend on socioeconomic developments and for the existing confrontations and other dangerous situations not developing into a far broader set of conflicts leading eventually to an all-encompassing conflict. This might actually have the effect of shocking the current Western World out of its self-serving egoism and realizing that there is only a future if there exists a prodigy to which to hand over that future and that depends on having said prodigy. Having such a revelation sweep Western society would be a blessing though it would be preferable for it not to have to be impressed through some horrific conflict as such changes have been initiated in previous eras. Such conflagrations have also brought down empires which not much earlier had been considered a permanent fixture assured forever into the future. The lesson there for the United States is that nothing remains on top forever, not Rome, not the British, not the Spanish, not the Egyptians, not Alexander’s Greeks and not even China, one of the longest continuous empires still existing and asserting a presence in the modern age.

 

Another serious illness striking the United States is the political divide which has not only grown wider this century but has also grown far nastier and more toxic. This past week proved this beyond any shadow of doubt. When President Obama was first elected in 2008 there was disappointment on the Republican side but most Americans hoped for the best. Many were disappointed but still believed there was hope and President Obama was reelected. After the 2012 election there was a smattering of protests which were nonviolent and largely quiet. The media made sure they had a short self-life by largely ignoring their existence. This present Inauguration brought back the protests and cries of foul from 2000 except with far more violence and vitriol. Madonna spoke of dreaming of blowing up the White House. That was quite far overboard as that would be such a waste of the rebuild after the War of 1812 which was finally completed in 1817 and President James Monroe moved into the new and improved White House. The demonstrations were boisterous and somewhat over the top including the burning of President Trump in effigy. The problem was with the violent actors who destroyed property, attacked police, attacked injuring innocent people who were simply attending Inaugural Dances including the insulting, spitting upon and injuring of a Gold Star widow and her sister. Spirited protests and debate are one thing and destruction of property and assaulting people and police is a completely different and unacceptable form of protest and should be considered beyond the pale. People work and depend on those places for their families and futures and the destruction of their workplaces hurt innocents and since a good many of these places were in major cities, especially those in Washington D.C. where over 90% voted for Hillary Clinton, most of the people hurt by these unscrupulous acts were Hillary supporters. Whatever the presumed excuse, such violence, if left unchecked, only grows and eventually leads to the destruction of the society.

 

The other problem with the violence was that it was presumed to be in support of groups which resemble numerous fascist entities of the past such as the infamous Brownshirts which used violence in order to scare the German people into demanding the government do something, anything, just end the violence. Once the people agreed to the government assuming emergency powers giving them absolute power, the Nazis wiped out the Brownshirts replacing them with the SS who became the new enforcers. The possibility that hidden somewhere within the leftist ranks are those seeking a repeat from history, using the rabble to stir up sufficient troubles at some point in the future to takeover and put in place a dictatorial fascist governance is all too possibly the end result. This has been the manner in which virtually every democratic based government has fallen throughout history; so saying it could not happen here is a fool’s gambit. Many of the demonstrations resembled the Red Guard demonstrations at the beginning of the Communist takeover of Russia deposing the Russian Provisional Government which was democratically elected in a limited vote and was presumed to be setting up a democratic form of government when the Communists decided they didn’t need any democracy, they simply desired replacing one dictatorial government with another. Caesar also replaced a democratic republic of Rome relegating the Senate into an echo chamber until they decided to depose him old school. The assassination of Caesar did no good as all it did was immortalize his name making it the title for the reign of dictators until the fall of Rome centuries later. Obviously saying it cannot happen here is a blindness that no democracy can afford. Reportedly, American Abolitionist and liberal activist Wendell Phillips on January 28, 1852 speaking to members of the Massachusetts Anti-Slavery Society stated,

“Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty; power is ever stealing from the many to the few. The manna of popular liberty must be gathered each day or it is rotten. The living sap of today outgrows the dead rind of yesterday. The hand entrusted with power becomes, either from human depravity or esprit de corps, the necessary enemy of the people. Only by continued oversight can the democrat in office be prevented from hardening into a despot; only by unintermitted agitation can a people be sufficiently awake to principle not to let liberty be smothered in material prosperity.”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 26, 2017

Perhaps Netanyahu is not the Answer

 

There is the possibility that Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is not the one who makes Israel whole and annexes Judea and Samaria. What if the answer comes from another source, another place and another person? We prayed and realized that what needs to be will be and Hashem will have his designs, desires and will completed, just not necessarily in the manner which is most straight forward. But first perhaps we should share that which we expect and then try to figure out the remainder of the puzzle.

 

We know that Prime Minister Netanyahu had a brief conversation with President Trump on the phone this weekend. We know the call lasted under thirty minutes and that the end result is President Trump has invited Prime Minister Netanyahu to visit in February in Washington D.C. We can extrapolate that one of the men, more likely President Trump, refused to talk about any plans or the “peace process” preferring to talk mano-a-mano so that Trump can take the measure of Bibi and ascertain what truths he is able to glean and judge the Israeli position on everything from there. We need to remember that President Trump prefers to take the measure of people in person and often gets it right when feeling the pulse of the other people face to face. President Trump is a people person and not likely as much prone to discuss things of an important nature with a person he has no yardstick established or any real measure of the person as to their truthfulness and the validity which can be assigned their words. President Trump can likely see a huckster from a mile away after dealing with some of the greatest showmen and women on the planet in New York real estate and other ventures around the world. Trump may not have the wealth he claims but he does have the sense for business and the ability for deal making where a deal is possible. So step one with Israel is to take a measure of Bibi and at the same time ascertain to what extent Israel has been the problem and what extent the victim.

 

So what is step two? Step two is taking a measure of Mahmoud Abbas and the Arab or Palestinian side of the equation. The one truth we know about Mahmoud Abbas is that he believes himself to be a slick trickster who easily plays on European ingrained anti-Semitism with great success. He hit a chord with President Obama and Obama virtually went to work for Abbas against Israel. Now Abbas is going to try and out hustle a hustler and that will be an interesting scenario. The question is not will Donald Trump see through Abbas, it is how long it will take before he sees through Abbas and his façade and lies. We doubt it will take too long as the very first item Trump will see is a simple visualization. His discussion with Bibi will be all about peace and what Israel would do for peace and little if any demands of the Arabs other than peace and recognition that Israel exists and will continue to do so. Abbas, on the other hand, will also talk of peace but will be setting goals and demands to be met in order to even sit down and talk about what other demands he can make before the world peace is permitted to even be mentioned. That is when and where Trump will see that Abbas does not desire peace, he is after a military victory through negotiations. Trump has likely run into Abbas type people throughout his childhood and has maybe been taken by a few of the first hucksters, but he has also hit the big leagues and dealt with the likes of the Reverend Sharpton and his ilk. Trump will see what is what and who is who and quickly make his reconnaissance and all which will remain is his solution. That might take up to six months to a year depending on time invested.

 

Mahmoud Abbas, Donald Trump and Benyamin Netanyahu

Mahmoud Abbas, Donald Trump and Benyamin Netanyahu

 

That brings us to step three, the deal. This will at best be a conference possibly in Abbas’s home court of Paris, France. Netanyahu will also be invited and both men will be told to bring their advisors and be ready to get the deal done. The pot may be sweetened by inviting the French President and his advisors and even invite another Abbas facilitator, the High Representative of the European Union (EU) for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini and whomever she would like to be her escort and figurehead advisor. There might even be the chance for the evil one, at least according to the New York Times, Vladimir Putin brought onboard just for that extra panache. Once the stage is set, the show can commence. By the time this confab has been arranged, The Donald will already have spoken with both of the main members of this conference, Abbas and Netanyahu, and have reached his verdict and little if anything will be capable of changing that mind. Trump will know which he believes is the honest broker and which is the huckster attempting to pull one over again. Trump may already have a fair idea and be predisposed in one direction and everything else is part of the show, we have to put on a show as how often does one get to play on a stage this grand and elaborate in front of the eyes of the world. This is a once in a lifetime appearance and President Trump will make the most of his opportunity. Do not for a minute as the conference unfolds believe it will not go exactly as President Trump desires as he is the main attraction, the master of ceremonies and the man who can deliver the goodies.

 

The fact that there has been talk that President Trump was thinking of assigning Jared Kushner, his Orthodox Jewish son-in-law, to be his special representative to settle the Israel-Palestinian conflict speaks volumes, both quantity and decibel level, about the direction Trump is leaning. Trump has met Netanyahu before and knows the man well enough to already have a good picture of his virtues and drawbacks. Trump probably has a line on Abbas and company as well as probably has their positions and bluster all summed up. The meetings now are to dress the bride for the ceremony, and only one of the potential bridegrooms get to go home with the prize while the other gets a bouquet which will rapidly wilt before he gets home. Could things turn around, sure, and I could become Trump’s Ambassador to Shangri-La and live forever in a garden paradise hidden away in some remote valley in the Himalayas. President Trump has been hiring some extremely high level firepower for much of his Cabinet and as personal advisors despite the brouhaha over his Secretary of Education pick, Ms. Betsy DeVos. By mentioning that he was considering appointing his Orthodox Jewish son-in-law to negotiate between the Israelis and Palestinians, he was signaling that his mind on the subject was made up and appointing what appears to be as biased a person in favor of Israel as humanly possible was just Trump’s way of signaling his direction. Discern what you may about his direction from such an obviously skewed choice.

 

So what remains is the set-up of the match, just like the UFC, you bring each fighter before the media, separately in this case as having them together would make for too ugly a scene and this has been choreographed to the final blow. Then you allow the media to get a feel for each side’s training camp and give everything the build-up of an impossible deal. Finally, you gather the top people, often these are Hollywood types to fill the first three rows for the UFC main event mixed in with former champions, but here it will be leaders such as we mentioned above and who you add to the list of top EU and other European officials along with Putin and possibly whoever replaces Ban Ki-moon as United Nations Secretary General and if some Arabs desire to come along, all the better. Putin will either be briefed on what to expect before he is invited to make sure he desires to be seen alongside the final deal as will a select group of others. Then there will be the three or four days of drama in the media as to whether Trump can make the deal or not, but the deal was already formulated and all but finalized beforehand and Trump is holding all the cards including, of course, the Trump Cards. When the pressure has almost peaked, as if it peaks then Abbas will spout some crazy, over the top demands and disappear showing up back in Ramallah launching the next Intifada. So, anticipating the point at which Abbas does his usual disappearing act, Trump will alert the media, close the airport and trains stations preventing anybody bolting, and the next morning the main event will take center stage, as we intimated, possibly Paris or perhaps Rome, it is beautiful there in the Spring. Trump will appear in a large press room before all the cameras and reporters with Bibi Netanyahu on one side and Abbas on the other side. Abbas will be wearing his usual “there are cameras in front of me smirk.” One can see the image below of that exact smirk which he wore when he was pictured center of the front line for the procession mourning the Charlie Hebdo and Hyper Cacher Market terror attacks. The fact that it was more a funeral than a parade is obvious from the other faces in the picture. But please never tell to Abbas such truths as that might cause laughter to accompany the smirk, especially if he knows that it was all the result of a terror attack. One need remember that terrorism is his trade coinage.

 

Mahmoud Abbas smirking while at remembrance rally for Charlie Hebdo in Paris after terror slaughter of a dozen writers and cartoonists for the satirical magazine.

Mahmoud Abbas smirking while at remembrance rally for Charlie Hebdo in Paris after terror slaughter of a dozen writers and cartoonists for the satirical magazine.

 

Before such an audience is where Trump would like to make his grand finale, but he also might end up settling for something far more low key if he decides to allow Abbas to bolt, thus hanging his side permanently. Walking out on Donald Trump because he would not give you all of the candy will not play well. Since Abbas is demanding the entire bowl of candy and demanding the Jews be removed so he can enjoy all of the candy from the Jordan River of chocolate to the Mediterranean Sea of Skittles, his idea of a good Israel is no Israel. That has been the Palestinian chant taught to college students and leftist protesters across Europe and North America and anywhere else pro-Palestinian demonstrations have been bought and paid for including the defining, “From the River to the Sea, Palestine must be free.” That sure leaves a whole lot to debate over, especially when it really is the only solution Abbas can accept as that is exactly what he has promised and so often that the people do not care or remember that there were possibilities that it would have to happen in stages. After President Obama and his grand schemes and promises and Abbas doing all he could to out-promise Obama, the Arabs expect they have already won. Nobody has told them there is a new sheriff in town, and he is taking names and numbers. At this point everything is conjecture but we feel pretty confident things should play out in some manner similar to what we have vaguely described above, or at least we like to think they will.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 9, 2016

Will Time Ever Silence John F. Kerry?

 

United States Secretary of State John F. Kerry recently gave another incendiary speech at the Saban Forum organized by the Brookings Institution’s Center for Middle East Policy and held on December 2, 2016, at the Willard Hotel in Washington, D.C. where he added insult to injury declaring Israel, his pet target, when he declared it guilty of the usual presumed evils and contradicted every statement made earlier by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. Some might have thought he used the same outline as Netanyahu and simply negated every statement. As is so usual for Secretary Kerry, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton before as both served the tune set by President Barack Obama, he spat out accusation against Israel making the same tired false charges as have become his stock in trade. Amongst the falsehoods were the “the settlements” for supposedly “blocking peace,” that “can’t be both democratic and Jewish,” blaming this on the disputed statistic that “there are more Arabs than Jews living between the Mediterranean and the Jordan River,” adding to his October Harvard University claim that “there’s been a massive increase in settlements over the course of the last years.” Every single one of these claims are contestable or just outright false with the claim that Israel has been founding new settlements as Israel has not declared or built a new settlement since Prime Minister Yitzchak Rabin froze the creation of new communities there in 1992. Further, the claim of the existence of more Arabs than Jews between the Jordan River Kerry includes the citizens of the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the equation which would be similar as claiming that there are more Hispanics in the United States throughout the Americas and including all Hispanics from the southern tip to the northern tip of the American continents. Then again, perhaps John Kerry is another leftist who also believes that all citizens on planet Earth should vote in the United States elections as the United States culture, military, economic and other influences have effects throughout the world and might also wish to claim that the all Arabs should be permitted the vote in Israel by the same malfunctioning logic.

 

What has been so absolutely incredible about the majority of critics of Israel blaming her for the lack of success in negotiating a two state solution is their completely ignoring any blame being presented on Mahmoud Abbas and the PA or even Hamas for the lack of a solution. Israel has made offers which met or exceeded the original demands set by Yassir Arafat when he set his demands when speaking with President Clinton during the desperate and critical negotiations during the last half of 2000 and into January 2001 and the end of the Clinton Presidency in the extended Camp David Accords. What was amazing was after President Clinton spent most of an afternoon and into the evening talking and cajoling Yasser Arafat in Paris, Clinton received his acceptable demands which Arafat thought the Israelis would balk and never accept. To his surprise, Prime Minister Ehud Barak agreed without altering a single demand and the next morning when Arafat was presented with papers to sign which fit exactly his demands, Arafat balked stalking from the talks getting into his waiting vehicle and left flying back to Nablus where he soon executed the Second Intifada which had been planned to be the response to Israeli denial to meet his demands. Even though it took Arafat refusing blatantly to sign an agreement which matched his demands, the PA leadership, European media and much of the leftist mainstream media blamed Israel going along with Arafat’s lies word for word. These conditions were also met, actually exceeded, with another offer made in 2008 at the end of the Bush Administration which was refused this time by Mahmoud Abbas. New leader but same old intransigence yet Kerry’s blame falls only on Israel for the lack of progress. Kerry ignored the fact that Abbas has declared all the lands from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea as a sacred Islamic Waqf thus declaring all the land as holy and unable to be surrendered to Israel or any entity which is not Islamic.

 

Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland

Camp David Talks on a Break as President Bill Clinton, Yasser Arafat and Prime Minister Ehud Barak Stroll the Grounds of the Complex Located Ten Miles North of Frederick, Maryland

 

With Christmas and Chanukah beginning on the same evening, we can claim that Jews and Christians the world over could pray for peace to come to Jerusalem and all of the Holy Lands bringing safety with that peace so all can celebrate a real resolution of the threats which have plagued the Holy Lands and Holy City of Jerusalem since over a century with overt anti-Jewish rioting starting in the 1920s. There have been numerous opportunities for there to be a declared peace between the Jews and the Arabs. The first came when the British Mandate lands which were set aside by the San Remo Conference and the Treaty of Serves for the establishment of the Jewish homelands were cut with the seventy-eight percent of the lands east of the Jordan River set aside for the Palestinian Arab state which became modern day Jordan and the remaining twenty-two percent of the lands west of the Jordan River reserved for the Jewish State intended to become Israel. The Arabs refused this patrician demanding the remaining lands, the same twenty-two percent they still demand today, not just Judea, Samaria and Gaza. Then on November 29, 1947 the United General Assembly passed a non-binding resolution, General Assembly Resolution 181 proposing dividing the remaining lands west of the Jordan River, the mere twenty-two percent, evenly between the Jews and the Arabs with the Jews receiving mostly Negev Desert lands but the Arabs refused this proposition, making it null and void, and instead invaded the Jewish State on May 15, 1948 on the first day of existence with over a half-dozen armies and militias with genocidal intents. The Mufti of Jerusalem had demanded that all Arabs residing west of the Jordan River cross into Arab held lands of Jordan, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and even Lebanon to allow the Arab invading forces to simply murder every human being they came upon. Not all Arabs obeyed the Mufti’s demands and they and their descendants are today Israeli citizens with full equality and rights including the vote and every other right of a citizen. One has to wonder how many times Israel and the Jewish People must agree to make peace and the Arabs to refuse demanding instead all the land and the extermination, the cleansing of the lands of all Jews before the world awakens? That is one question which will never be broached as such would also require recognition that the Israelis have made honest sacrifices for peace repeatedly through recent history.

 

Left UN Partition Plan Resolution 181 Rejected by Arabs Making Original British Partition Arab and Jewish Lands as Only Standing Agreement Supported in 1921 Arab League and Zionist Congress Backed by British Crown as Valid

Left UN Partition Plan Resolution 181 Rejected by Arabs
Making Original British Partition Arab and Jewish Lands
as Only Standing Agreement Supported in 1921 Arab League
and Zionist Congress Backed by British Crown as Valid

 

Had the Arabs accepted any of these offers over the past century there would be peace today but apparently that little fact has escaped observation in the rush to follow the historic practice, blaming the Jews? Looking back over history the Jews were blamed for plagues, loss at war, famine, drought, flooding, economic downturns, locusts, spoiled food stores or any other difficulty or threat to a ruler such as kings, dictators, emperors, or even Pharos (other than Egypt where many of these may have occurred in Biblical times during something often referred to as the Ten Plagues). During the Holocaust one of the accusations was that the Jews refused to fight for Germany during World War I despite the actuality that the Jews were more represented than other religions when it came to volunteers for the Great War. During the Crusades the knights and other fighters would often attack Jewish villages in order to get used to drawing blood and killing people as many of the fighters had no such experience and their officers knew they could not wait until first combat to train them to fight forcefully and effectively. Also during World War I the Germans claimed the Jews were responsible for the Communist enemies while the Russians claimed the Jews were responsible for the Kaiser German enemies. History is full of such examples throughout the past three thousand year history of the Israelite/Jewish People and the canard that Israel is an impediment to peace is just the latest. When Israel and Egypt made their peace treaty Israel evacuated over twenty communities which had been built within the Sinai Peninsula before returning it as agreed with Egypt, just one more proof that the “settlements” are no honest impediment to peace. Demanding the complete destruction of Israel and the eradication of her Jewish citizens is the real impediment to peace but as there are more than one and a half billion Muslims and under fifteen million Jews the world is siding with the numbers as well as the oil.

 

Beyond the Cusp 

 

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