Beyond the Cusp

October 9, 2018

After Trump, There Comes the Great Question

 

We can assume that the Democrat Party will lose the coming midterms largely due to the public lynching of Justice Kavanaugh in his confirmation hearings. The Republicans can probably count on the Democrat candidates using similar tactics against numerous Republican candidates in the most highly contended states. This will backfire on them to the extremes. It is even rather likely that President Trump will easily be reelected should, as expected, the economy continue to roll along with a future that appears bright. This will only be more likely should the Republicans experience a red tide flowing fast carrying Congress securely behind the President and his work of bolstering the economic conditions. The problem comes after President Trump for the Republicans to continue to keep the Trump support of what we call the Silent Majority or the Middle American Normals. Vice President Pence is not a highly exciting personality which would stir the base to come out and vote. By 2024, the Democrats will have a completely new and different body of candidates. They will probably run a fresh face filled with the vigor of youth which will produce the kind of excitement which brings out the younger voters, the very kind of voters which elected President Obama and before him President Clinton. The Republicans will be required to come up with a Presidential candidate who can stir the base and get the working class voters to remain steady with the Republicans. The one person we can see who would bring out such passion would be United States Ambassador Nicky Haley. In addition, Nicky Haley could be the woman to claim the treasured title of first woman President. This would be a great thing as she is an invigorating and special personality as well as a great and steady proponent of conservative thought and policy.

 

United States Ambassador Nikki Haley

United States Ambassador Nikki Haley

 

Here is where the problem comes, after twelve years of holding the Presidency, it will be very difficult for the Republicans to hold to power beyond, as the pendulum of politics tends to inexorably swing one way and then inevitably swings back. Finally, even should the excitement of having the first woman President, after the period of Republican hold of Congress will also become challenged, and if Ms. Haley does not have a supporting Congress, she will not be able to accomplish her preferred policy and might fall victim to the same difficulties which plagued President George H. W. Bush with having to allow the raising of taxes in order to receive the votes necessary to at least salvage part of the conservative agendas. No matter what, eventually the Democrats will take the White House and if this should come after a near record time of holding the Presidency by the Republicans, history teaches that any Democrat President, especially if this does not occur until 2032, then the Congress will also be under Democrat rule and the mainstream Republican establishment will have recovered sufficiently to have returned the Republican agenda to the unexciting middle of the road policies which has seemingly always put the base to sleep as it lacks vision. This is what led to the initial two years under President Obama where he also had an unchallengeable majority in the House of Representatives and a cloture proof sixty or greater number of Senators. This was how President Obama managed to force through Obamacare and virtually anything else they chose to pass. This is the great problem which has faced every past correction from the seemingly inexorable move leftward by American politics. This will also have a devastating effect on the rest of the world, as the United States once again will change their loyalties away from their former traditional allies, especially in the Middle East, and ally with former adversaries. But with whom will the Democrats ally?

 

The next time the Democrats capture the White House the only mystery will be whether they ally on the side of the Sunni or the Shiite base of Islam. This decision will determine whether they will support Saudi Arabia or Iran, as they are the leaders of these two variants of Islam. Whichever side is chosen, the reality will also show a new threat to traditional America. The Democrat Party is at the forefront of their new identity. This new Democrat is currently represented by such as Linda Sarsour and Keith Ellison who both have connections with CAIR (Council on American-Islamic Relations) and connections with the Muslim Brotherhood and even potentially with Hamas. The main reasoning behind the Islamic preference for the Democrat Party is largely due to their immigration policy which favors immigrants from the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region which is heavily Islamic. Further, the members of Islamic faiths are very politically conscious and realize that power only comes when you concentrate your power in one group which maximizes your influence. It currently appears that the Islamic power base will be cultivated and grown within the Democrat Party over the Republican Party. Their hard work has been rewarded with Keith Ellison being promoted into the second highest position in the party. The apparent partnering of the Democrats and Islam makes little sense until you realize they also have a common enemy, the Judeo-Christian Ethics. The problem in marrying the remainder of their seeming alliance is easily explained by the overly optimistic belief in their powers and abilities of having an ability powered by their overt belief in the rightfulness of their political agenda to overcome all obstacles if only they are able to take power. By the time the Democrats retake power in the White House, the face of Europe will be changing as the Islamic influx creates political unrest. The Democrats will promise to keep the United States out of any European war and not facing the problems which resulted from the two World Wars. This will be a very appealing platform which will likely be successful.

 

What will also have come into being is a sufficient number of Islamic voting blocks which can carry certain states for the Democrat Party. These states will be, but not limited to, Michigan, Minnesota, Virginia and possibly the Carolinas. Many of these states are the decisive states necessary for carrying the Electoral College and attaining the White House. This will provide the Islamic blocks considerable power in the Democrat Party. It could be that power which may cause the Democrats to break that promise about not entering into the problems of Egypt and further into the imbroglio all but guaranteed to have worsened in the Middle East. Our best guess is that the Democrats will be beholding to Sunni Islam which will place the United States in direct conflict with Iran as well as possibly, should alliances remain as they are currently, against Russia. The wild card would be whether or not the Chinese desire getting involved or take the intelligent path of remaining aloof and out of all wars which they do not choose to start. The truth is that we are guaranteed that the future is going to be interesting if nothing else. The question is will time change Islam or will it remain set on the path of chasing after world conquest as they believe the Quran demands of them. Should the Muslim Brotherhood remain a power determining the policies and beliefs for Sunni Islam, then we can be assured that world conquest will remain their goal. They will desire to use their power within the Democrat Party in order to serve just that goal.

 

If anyone believes that the United States is in turmoil currently, just wait until the late 2020’s to the mid 2030’s and what is coming. Imagine the conflict which will arise should one party begin to try and replace the Constitution with a new set of laws which, as time passes, begin to point that they are attempting to place Sharia in place of the Constitution. The civil conflict which this could instigate would make these current altercations pale by comparison. That will be because the Christians, who are usually the quiet or at least polite, will be up in arms and become the strongest of Constitutionalists. Things might even start to become uncomfortable sufficiently for the Jews, who currently are very aligned with the Democrat Party, start to depart out of fear and a measure of survival instinct. If the rise of Islamic interests in the Democrat Party does not give the Jews reason for pause, then they are truly lost to their faith. The Muslim power base and ability to fund campaigns for the Democrats will have them a strong replacement for the Jews who will not have the numbers or financial clout to compete with the Islamic power base. Should these events take place, there will be many Jews fleeing to Israel, as Europe will no longer be a safe refuge. The real question is whether or not the Islamic powers through the Muslim Brotherhood actually take power in the United States as their well laid out plans which are no secret.

 

We may be sounding like fear-mongers, but the above link is real and what we have laid out here is also a distinct probability. We have traced this slow progression of the hate of anti-Semitism which has slowly but inexorably grown stronger and stronger in places which many claimed it could never grow. This growth has been in the far left and not the right. This is why the left and Democrat Party have become the natural home for the Islamic interests. We have witnessed the expression of Israel hatred from the far left and exemplified by Linda Sarsour and many of her activities. How all of the parties and forces in play will make sure that American political theater continues to defy predictions and make turns and spins which nobody could ever have conceived could occur is anyone’s guess. Who could have predicted that President Obama would be elected at the time that Ronald Reagan gained his reelection and it appeared that Vice President Bush would follow for a full two terms, and he lost to a relative unknown governor from Arkansas. Imagine a time when we had little knowledge of a family known as the Clintons. Of all the things which have occurred in American politics, the one prediction which came true in spades was the warning from President Eisenhower to keep a tight control over the military and its potential marriage with a defense industry which would drain funds from the American public at unstoppable rates if allowed to go loose. Well, they went loose and America reaped the misery. We are, unfortunately, not quite as true seeing as was President Eisenhower, but then he spoke of what he knew and you cannot fault him for the ensuing mess because we did not heed his warnings. What will be coming down the road to us looks to be of equal a threat to the American dream and a Constitution which has never known and potentially will never see its equal outside of the bible, the book which began the entire idea of personal freedoms and national liberties.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 20, 2012

This Election We Have a Real Choice

Many pundits have aptly described Obama’s campaign for the Presidency last election as a fill in the blank campaign. Candidate Obama never spoke of a definitive or explicit policy or idea he planned to pursue and instead simply expounded on the slogan of “Hope and Change”, which allowed each individual to define those terms as they pleased. This was the perfect campaign for a total unknown as it allowed each person to define Obama as the person best suited to match their desires. After almost a full term, we the people have a better idea what it is that President Obama aims to do and we can now define what exactly “Hope and Change” mean and how President Obama intends to “fundamentally change America” should we vote him a second term. This means that should President Obama win a second term, those who have claimed they were fooled by his “Hope and Change” message and who thought he meant something completely different when he stood for “fundamental change in America” no longer have the luxury of claiming ignorance. This time around, Barack Obama will be running on his record no matter how much he wishes to blame Congress as not cooperating as we have seen first-hand the real Barack Obama.

But that leaves us with the question of who is Mitt Romney and what does he stand for? Obviously, it is not enough to know that Mitt Romney is a wealthy person who saved the Salt Lake City Olympics and was on the board of a venture capital company, Bain Capital. We need to know what Mitt Romney’s political lineage is. We know he was once the Governor of Massachusetts and that he had some very liberal beliefs and actions. His term began in January of 2003 and ended in December of 2006 as he did not gain reelection. There are those who would claim that Mitt Romney failing to be reelected as Governor of Massachusetts is actually a recommendation just like his having actually ever won that office should count against him. Candidate Romney this time around claims that he has matured, aged, and become wise and much more conservative in the years since serving as governor. He has given a turning point for his transformation from “pro-choice” to becoming “pro-life” and has said that much of what he claimed when politicking in Massachusetts was somewhat complex where much was said with consideration of the realities of the liberal leanings of the state of Massachusetts, and not all these positions are his personal beliefs. Anyway, the Mitt Romney we have today is not the same Mitt Romney who ran for Governor of Massachusetts and a President Romney will not be like the Governor Mitt Romney. These excuses and claims have many true conservatives very nervous. Yet, they are also fully cognizant that if not Mitt Romney, they will have a second term of Barack Obama. This likely scares them even more than does the idea of a President Romney. Still, it appears that many hard core conservatives are going to need some real and solid convincing before they will be comfortable with voting for a President Romney.

This presents a peculiar picture of the coming election. We have the Democrat candidate being an incumbent President Obama who in many ways has let down the most fanatical of his supporters and base by not producing an agenda as stridently socialist as they expected. Yet, President Obama also has been perceived as possibly too far left which has made many centrist and swing voters nervous about supporting him for a second term as they fear he would swing off scale leftward since he would not be facing another election in 2016. On the Republican side we have the most conservative members and many in the Tea Party wing of the Republican Party not fully satisfied that Romney is the man who will rope in the government and return the government to within their strict Constitutional boundaries. Then there are the pro-life people in the Republican Party who must wonder which Mitt Romney will take the White House, the pro-life Mitt of the present campaign or the “I will do nothing to change Massachusetts law concerning “Roe vs. Wade” Governor Romney. So Mitt Romney also has the extreme wing of his base less than one-hundred-percent convinced he’s their man. This is the crucial stress point of this election.

The winner of this election is not necessarily the one who wins the most “swing” or middle of the road votes; it will be who gets their base excited and to the polls. The swing voters are most likely going to split at most sixty-forty and more likely fifty-fifty leaving the election to be decided by percentage of base support that make it to the polls. This election will not be won by who moves the furthest to the center but by who goes furthest from the center and really excites their radical wing of the base. In the Democrat and Republican Parties there exist approximately thirty percent of their voters sitting at the extreme polar opposite ends of the political spectrum. For the Democrats these are the socialist progressives and for the Republicans these are the constitutionalists, individualists, and Tea Party members. Neither candidate, Mitt Romney or Barack Obama need worry about those single-issue voters as they have those locked up even before the Primary Elections began. The Democrat candidate is guaranteed the pro-choice vote, the gun control vote, the ecologist vote (though some may be reluctant or choose third party), the affirmative action vote, and on and on down a litany of leftist pet causes; while the Republican candidate is guaranteed the pro-life vote (though some may be reluctant or choose third party), the pro Second Amendments vote, the anti-tax vote, pro-business vote, and on and on down a litany of rightist pet causes. What is going to matter is the percentage of these voters they can give sufficient reason to actually go and vote. Right now it would appear that President Obama is winning this part of the campaign for President and Mitt Romney still has a hard hill to climb to secure these voters.

Meanwhile, look to the press to constantly keep asking questions about which candidate is moving to the center and which one has caught the heart of the independent voters. This is a ruse which the Democrats know to ignore and to continue playing to their base by keeping their campaign left oriented. If the Republicans prove true to form, we can expect Mitt Romney’s campaign to move towards the center after the Party Conventions just as was the case with Bob Dole, George W. Bush (though he was castigated as far right by the media which actually may have helped his campaign), and most recently with John McCain. This was especially true of Senator McCain where his move to the center was so complete that he had campaign staff almost literally gagging his Vice Presidential running mate, Sarah Palin, so as to prevent her seriously conservative message from ruining his campaign which was aiming for the center of the political spectrum.

So, what should we be looking for as Election Day nears and the polls will likely all be within the margin of error? The first thing is to ignore ninety-percent of what you hear from the mainstream press. Look for internal polls which show the level of expected voters who say they will definitely be voting when they are asking those who make up the Party’s base. Whoever appears to be getting out their base most efficiently will likely be the winner. We can pretty much ignore the polls of all eligible voters as that is just some nonsense thrown out to try and add another dimension to the coverage though all know full well that these polls are next to meaningless. The most important polls for President Obama and Mitt Romney will be the under thirty voters and the over fifty voters, simply the numbers who plan to vote in both cases, and whichever poll indicates that more total people, that is total people and not merely percentage, will determine the winner of the election. So, our prediction is this, whichever candidate gets the most votes from the combination of voters under thirty and those over fifty will be the winner of the election. We fully expect that the voters between the ages of thirty and fifty to pretty much split right down the middle within a margin of plus or minus four percent which will leave the voters at the age extremes in control of the electoral decision. Of course, there are many events such as a Middle East War, the blockading of the Straits of Hormuz driving gasoline prices through the roof, or a myriad of other surprises which could drastically change everything and you can bet we will get right on any such event, well, within a few days of the event as we tend to react somewhat slowly at times. But rest assured, we will be sure to predict a winner before Christmas.

Beyond the Cusp

May 12, 2012

Keys to an Obama Victory

Both those who wish to defeat the reelection efforts of President Barack Obama and those who support the effort are both identifying those things which are necessary to reach their objectives. There will be charts made and maps drawn up with colors for Democrat and Republican States and those vitally important Battleground States. Then they will break down even further in order to find the most profitable and beneficial manner to maximize the results. Tables and graphs will break the cultural down by wealth, religiosity, party affiliation, past voting trends, and just about any other differentiation in order to classify each and every one of us into our distinct groups so they can tailor their appeals to fit the residents at which it is aimed. But, is there a simple and basic area which will determine the outcome of this year’s coming Presidential election? We believe there is one and it is easy to qualify though more difficult to quantify.

Every election breaks down into individual voters and swaying more of the voters who support your candidate to come to the polls and vote than voters for the other candidate who do. This election will be taking place in what is probably one of the most divisive environments since the Civil War. Americans are deeply divided between the liberal progressives and the cultural, religious, constitutional, fiscal and other conservatives. Those who are at the farthest edges of this divide are already spoken for as to how they are going to vote. Many are going to tell you that the entire election hinges on that fuzzy group referred to as the swing voters. Well, believe it or not, this is very likely not going to be the determining factor. So, what will decide this election?

The challenge for those wishing to defeat President Barack Obama and his reelection bid will need to find some persuasive arguments to get the most conservative voters to get out and vote. The fiscal and cultural conservatives are likely already on board with the campaign for Mitt Romney. It will be the rest of the different classes of conservatives which will present the challenge for the Romney camp to win and the Obama camp to discourage thus affecting their turnout on Election Day. These voters greatly outnumber the swing voters and are the most crucial to the Romney campaign. The Obama campaign has their constituencies they will need to excite such as the youth vote among others where the support is considered to be soft. The motivation of the soft support is probably going to be less of a problem for the Obama campaign than it currently appears to be for the Romney campaign. Some of this evidential condition is likely going to shrink as it is at its highest currently due to the bitter primary campaigns which recently came to a close. Still, most prognosticators are predicting that the challenge of getting out the vote with those who are not strongly motivated will likely be a larger problem for Romney than it will for Obama. So, how does this turn into the key to an Obama reelection?

Well, the easiest route for President Obama to reelection is through keeping the conservatives weak and emphasizing their doubts about Mitt Romney’s strength of conservative convictions. The Obama camp needs to find disillusioned conservatives to press the problems that some conservatives have and make their reservations into convictions of doubt about Mitt Romney. They will be best served to stress that Obama’s healthcare initiative was taken almost directly from Romney’s Massachusetts Health Insurance initiatives. It does not matter that if one takes the time to honestly compare the two that there are huge differences between the two, what matters is the persistence of the suspicions that Obama used Romney Care as his model. Since when did honesty matter in politics? Stressing any tax increases allowed even if they were forced through by the Democrats while Romney was governor would make one solid wedge issue. To put it in a catchy phrase, the Barack Obama Presidential campaign needs to Massachusetfy Romney thus making his stint as Governor of Massachusetts tied hard and fast to Mitt Romney thus dragging him down to defeat. The problem is that Mitt Romney cannot deny or distance himself sufficiently from his record in Massachusetts and that can be magnified and even distorted forcing a defensive posture on the Romney campaign. This is the route to the reelection of President Barack Obama, plain and simple, well, straight forward at least.

Beyond the Cusp

Create a free website or blog at WordPress.com.