Beyond the Cusp

March 25, 2017

Return of Permanent Limbo in Israel

 

The Trump opportunity has passed at least for the summer. There was the opportunity for a change in Israel and the standoff with the Arab world. The Israeli hesitation over moving the American Embassy to Jerusalem, specifically the warnings of potential violence which, according to Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman, was something Israel was not prepared to face at the time forced President Trump to hesitate and at best postpone any actions on the embassy or possibly totally abandoned, time will tell. President Trump was elected President with a Republican platform which had refused to continue with the two state solution as part of its Middle East policy, a first for United States policy since the Oslo Accords were signed in September of 1993. The Republicans managed to do something which apparently far too many Israeli politicians are unprepared to do, reject the paradigm of the two state solution and accept something entirely separate. President Trump has stated even since taking office that he is ready to accept whatever decision is presentable to the individuals, which guarantees that he is open to almost any solution providing it is a workable solution. Between President Trump’s statements, the appointments made concerning Israel and the Republican platform, anything is potentially acceptable once one takes all of these particulars together and weighs all of the possibilities. Unfortunately it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is not prepared to take any alternative before other issues including but not limited to Iran, Hezballah, Islamic State and the stability of the areas surrounding Israel are more secured and balanced. Netanyahu also is most concerned with the Iranian race to produce nuclear weapons and properly fears their finally becoming nuclear weapons capable, or worse, having tested and produced a nuclear weapons arsenal which would permit them to project power and terrorism throughout the entirety of the Middle East and across North Africa threatening Europe and possibly beyond to include the United States, China and even Russia. None of the current main nuclear weapons powers should consider their position secure as the potential for Iran to commit nuclear terrorism must not be considered as impossible or out of the question as such will be a definitive and dangerous possibility once Iran has produced miniaturized nuclear weaponry, something they are predicted to have the capability to produce within the next decade.

 

Another threat which Israel is facing has ties to Iran as well. Syria is allied with Iran and Hezballah which controls Lebanon under Iranian direction to the point that Hezballah commands the Military of Lebanon using their strength in the war in Syria against the Sunni rebels including the Islamic State. This conflagration which has destroyed much if not almost all of Syrian infrastructure outside of a thin strip along the Mediterranean Sea, particularly Latakia where the Russians have their active port facilities in the Mediterranean Sea. The losses being taken by Iran and Hezballah in the Syrian catastrophic civil hostilities have produced much consternation within their respective publics which is demanding good and understandable reasoning as to why they should continue to support such bloodshed. Thusfar they have not been rewarded with results which show that their involvement is of any worth as Syria is beginning to appear as a killing field where they are being asked to sacrifice for no good reason. There is a building demand that Assad be replaced allowing for an end to a seemingly endless and pointless waste of resources. The one means for making the Syrian war to appear to have an acceptable reason, at least in Lebanon as well as much of Iran and vast numbers of the IRGC and Hezballah soldiers and their families would be an expansion of the war to include a full on war with Israel. Such a war against the Zionist entity would make the efforts in Syria appear to have a payoff which would be understood and well received thus rejuvenating the support for the forces which are fighting in Syria and an excuse for the losses. Such a decision requires for Iran, as it is the Iranian leadership, the Mullahs and the Supreme Leader who decide, to decide to take such a move as they will be the ones providing the majority of the military resources should such a war be initiated. The cost of such a war for Syria would be inconsequential as much of the nation is already in ruins and most of the military supplies would be provided by Iran. On the other hand, for Hezballah such a war would be a double sided sword cutting both ways as Lebanon has not been near as torn asunder as has Syria. Any war with Israel which included Hezballah would also endanger much of the infrastructure south of the Litani River and the length of the Bekaa Valley as well as parts of Beirut as well as potentially the Beirut International Airport should it be utilized by Iran to fly in provisions for Hezballah using the airstrips of this airport.

 

Where losing men and munitions fighting in Syria is growing less and less popular, a war with Israel if it should bring destruction raining down within Lebanon itself could backfire. While it is possible to have Hezballah troops only attack Israel from areas such as across the Golan Heights, this would not guarantee that Israeli responses would only be targeting Hezballah forces in Syria and not their rocket stores and command and control headquarters within Syria. This would be a definite possibility as Hezballah has sufficient stores of rockets and missiles provided by Iran and placed under the noses of UNIFIL forces assigned by the United Nations to prevent exactly that buildup, they failed completely. These rockets pose an existential threat to Israel and should Hezballah forces be fighting Israel, even if just across the Golan Heights, Israel could not permit Hezballah to have the opportunity to choose the point at which to introduce these assets into such a conflict. In any conflict with Hezballah, Israel correctly feels that their first and most important targets are the stores of rockets and missiles, their launching facilities and the command and control nexuses in order to remove this threat from their civilians, their infrastructure and the Israeli Defense Forces. Even with the Arrow systems, the Iron Dome and David’s Sling, the well over one-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles held by Hezballah could be launched in such a manner as to overwhelm the Israeli defenses and thus inflict unacceptable damage. Where Israel has exceptional interception capabilities, no such system is one-hundred percent successful and with the numbers of weapons Hezballah alone has, not even counting the potential from Syrian, Iraqi and Iranian stores, Israel would be hard pressed to rely on interception thus only destruction of these threats before they can be utilized is the only answer.

 

There is another set of reasons which might cause Iran to seek a war with Israel, and these include Russia and the United States. The Iranians would probably desire testing President Trump as well as pressing him to take a stand one way or the other concerning supporting Israel. If Iran can show that President Trump supports Israel against them, they could attempt to portray themselves as leading the fight against the Zionists and use any United States support as proof that President Trump was fighting a war against Islam. They would use all the claims by the left and the United States liberal media who claimed that the immigration restraint against seven terror prone nations which were so labeled by the Obama Administration and simply that classification was used by President Trump for his imposing an immigration hold until proper vetting could be arranged for these nations but Iran could use the media claims of that being President Trump starting a war against Islam. This would be blown into a full-fledged campaign by President Trump and the United States in supporting Israel as simply the next step in Trump’s war on Islam which Iran would claim they and Hezballah were fighting for the entire Muslim world and in the name of the Prophet Mohammad. The Iranians could attempt to persuade some, if not all, the Gulf States to join them in this noble war against the evil Zionist entity and then attempt to pull Turkey’s Erdogan into the war using popular pressure to drag him into a war thus using his own program of using anti-Semitism to raise his own support levels. How much success Iran might have in turning the Islamic world against Israel and the United States could be debated but results would need to wait to be seen. Further, Iran could use such a war with Israel as a means of forcing Russia to take sides thus driving a wedge between Russia and the United States or driving a wedge between the United States and Israel as Trump would have to choose which side to inflame should Russia be forced to support Iran against Israel. This could lead to a whole new proxy war in the Middle East pitting the two powers, Russia and the United States on opposing sides and once again drag much, if not all, of the Arab world into the Russian sphere of influence and heighten the risk of embroiling the entire Middle East in a war even broader in scope than the 1948 War where the Arab League attempted to wipe Israel from the map. Now the idea of wiping Israel from the map is a wholly, or is it holy, Iranian concept. Iran has threatened to open a front against Israel as a means of leading the rest of the Islamic world into a general war with Israel and granting themselves with the title of the great leaders of the new Caliphate which is what they would use as their alliance’s title so as to give it an Islamic rallying cry. Iran has already made some inroads with some of the Gulf States much to the chagrin of the Saudi Royals who used to have an iron grip on these states.

 

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

Iranian Crescent Resulting from an Iranian Surge
Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad Connecting
Iran to Mediterranean via Iraq, Syria and Lebanon

 

Further reasoning behind Iran taking the lead in a charge to try and bring down Israel is to bring themselves to the fore of the Islamic world and to attempt to sell their brand of Shia Islam as the real bold, brave and action center for all Islam and thus start to turn the Islamic world from Sunni to Shiite. Iran has had this dream to form a crescent of Shia states across the heart of the Middle East, their Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon crescent which was looking good until Syria disintegrated. What Iran needs now is some means by which to force much of the Syrian resistance to come across to their side and thus reestablish their hold on most if not all of Syria. Iran might even try to win the Kurdish to their side by sacrificing a small section of northwestern Iran and northern Iraq along with some of northeastern Syria forming a Kurdish nation state if they will ally and take up Shia Islam. This would sandwich the Sunnis in central Iraq placing them in a very precarious position which just might force many to accept Shia Islam in exchange for protection from Islamic State. This would leave Iran with a smaller set of opponents to their taking the lead as the great power in Islam allowing their reestablishment of the power which once was Persia. With such a success and Russian backing, the Iranians might even be able to really crack the back of Sunni Islam and convert the Muslim Brotherhood over to Shia Islam if Iran would work with them to remove President Sisi in Egypt and place the Muslim Brotherhood back into power in Egypt which could be assisted with pressure from the south using their friendly relations with the Sudan as their wedge. From this they could then take control of the Horn of Africa and complete their vanquishing of their opposition in Yemen and now have Saudi Arabia surrounded. All of this is speculation and highly unlikely but this is also seen by the Mullahs as potentially plausible if only they could gain an upper hand along the Gulf States and win over many in the Islamic world through a war with Israel. The one catch there is that any war with Israel promises to be as short as Israel can possibly make it which would very possibly not turn out so well for Hezballah or Lebanon. The only thing that Iran would not be risking is the infrastructure of Syria. Also, getting Russia to work against Israel is iffy at best as Russia and Israel have already been working in cooperation sharing intelligence and Israel warning the Russians before striking at targets in Syria or near the Syrian Lebanese border in the Bekaa Valley. Add to that the news that the missile shot from the sky by an Israeli Arrow System was a Russian made SA-5 missile proving that the Israeli military technology is everything it is cracked up to be and this should make Putin wary of any plans to go against Israel. Iran would be treading dangerously trying to force such a conflict and may find they could lose Russian assistance in Syria and that Russia might just take Western Syrian coastal cities as their own just as they did the Crimea with one difference, Israel would welcome Russia as their new friend in the region and that would leave Iran weaker for their efforts.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 17, 2017

Let’s Talk Middle East Conflict, Minus One Overly Blamed Nation

 

We are going to do something which the average person would believe impossible, discuss conflicts in the Middle East, which includes North Africa and the entirety that goes by the initials MENA, without mentioning Israel other than this once. Yes, that is not only possible but necessary such that people can learn how solving the Palestinian issue would not bring peace to one of the most troubled areas on the planet. There are a number of separate wars going on in Libya alone. In the capital city of Tripoli the government’s forces hold a little more than the offices of the Parliament, the President and the other government buildings and their residences, and only because they reside very close to this central area in Tripoli. There are usually a minimum of two rebel groups at any time fighting the government as well as one another. Often there are more than two as these clans believe that they should be the ones running the country and that Libya is their personal playground. These clans also fight against any terrorists who they believe are trying to take over their areas which they actually do control. The terrorists fight to retain their training grounds. Benghazi is also an open warfare zone with no real governance which controls the entire city but it is the second largest concentration of government military forces. As the government forces do control the port of Tripoli there does exist some trade which is mostly necessities as well as arms and ammunition to keep the government in control. Further, Benghazi, Tobruk, Surt and the other major ports are often changing hands as different groups will exert the necessary force to take the ports when they are expecting shipments from their arms merchants. As some European and many Middle East and Asian arms dealers are making a fair profit, the risks of doing business with the different clans and terror groups operating in Libya is worth the risks involved. Needless to say, the violence in Libya does not always stay in Libya; it often crosses borders into Egypt, Algeria, Chad, Niger and even the Sudan. One of the main arms providers is the Sudanese government and arms dealers taking side action arming the Sudanese neighboring nations including Libya but excluding South Sudan as this is not permitted by the Sudanese government.

 

There is a very good reason that the Sudanese government has made the providing of arms to South Sudan a capital offence, they are still fighting a war and committing a slow genocide against the Christians and Animists and act as if nobody in the world has recognized South Sudan as a separate nation. As long as the world, including those who have recognized South Sudan as a separate nation, do nothing of consequence to protest the nascent country from its far stronger and well-armed former rulers, the killing will continue. There have been some troops provided by the African Union. The United Nations also has sent troops to South Sudan. The problem is what is really necessary would be an entire army, which is not what has been sent. Back in 2013 the United States took what it claimed was measures to assure the genocide in South Sudan would be relieved by allocating one-hundred-fifty Marines and a few aircraft to the Horn of Africa from where they were to be capable of evacuating people under threat in South Sudan. As is said repeatedly in Bill Cosby’s routine on Noah, “Right!” Our new United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated this week that refugees were fleeing cities and towns and that “The security situation continues to deteriorate in parts of the country and the consequent impact of this ongoing conflict and violence, has reached catastrophic proportions for civilians,” A United Nations report stated, “The rise of militias under the loose command of the SPLA or rebel commanders is spreading the fragmentation and dislocation of its territories, which risk, if this trend continues, remaining out of any government control for years to come.” The United Nations further reports that the numbers of refugees currently seeking relief is beyond one and a half million.

 

Now we can slide over to Somalia which is only a real country on maps for lack of a better means of describing the area. Like Libya there is no actual ruling government but instead a series of gangs ruling their territories with iron fists and warring with each other trying to increase their domain. The people have to make sure they are aware of which gang is currently ruling their block of homes as that will also define where they are allowed to shop and who they may visit. Crossing from one region to the next carries varying degrees of danger. Some of the gangs along the shoreline engage in pirating for a living seeking pleasure yachts, merchant ships and even passing warships which are traveling without escort. These pirates have varying levels of gall living by the code “no guts, no glory.” They have attacked European, Asian, Australian, Canadian and American shipping and anybody else who comes within their range. Their method is to use a larger ship which remains out of sight but relatively close and smaller craft attack the target vessels and attempt to board and commandeer the ship then demanding ransom for the ship, crew and cargo. They check the cargo for anything they might desire or need to keep for themselves and will take any weapons they find an board the ships they take. There has been some degree of international efforts to bring this to an end but for the most part ships take their own risks coming out of the Red Sea after passing through the Suez Canal.

 

Of course that means they need to make their way through the Bab el-Mandeb Straights without being struck by Houthis shelling out of Yemen. The Houthi rebels in Yemen are Iranian backed and attempting to conquer all of Yemen to give Iran a base from which to attack Saudi Arabia from the south. This will come in very handy should Iran decide to attack Saudi Arabia from Iraq and the north mainly the northeast of Saudi Arabia which has the majority of Shiite Muslims as well as most of the oil fields. Additionally, Iran has made friends with Qatar and has made overtures claiming than Oman and Bahrain are actually breakaway Iranian provinces. Much like China keeps threatening that they will one day rejoin Taiwan to the mainland as it is simply a breakaway province, Iran makes the same claims on Oman and Bahrain. Bahrain has a Sunni monarch and a predominantly Shiite population. During the Arab Spring (boy was that a joke and a complete disaster from the word go thanks in part to President Obama who had a hand in these failed revolts with great assistance from Hillary Clinton and the European Union) the Shiites in Bahrain revolted and things appeared to be heading for real troubles, that was until Saudi Arabia used the multi-lane causeway highway to send troops to quell the revolt. The Shiites left their Mosques on Friday all revved up to overthrow the monarch when they found tanks, armored personnel carriers and heavily armed Saudi Arabian troops at both ends of the block so everybody calmed down and went home. Sure there were a few short outbursts of violence which were immediately quelled. The entire Arab Spring in Bahrain ended that Friday with barely a whimper. Similarly, the Shiites in the northeast of Saudi Arabia thought about staging an uprising but were quickly persuaded to remain calm. That thought of rising up was so short it did not even make a single news cycle.

 

Egypt is next on out little tour and is currently largely complacent. They had their Arab Spring and threw out military rule and President Mubarak and replaced him with the predicted Muslim Brotherhood candidate, President Morsi. President Morsi was advised by Turkish President Erdogan to take a slow and steady approach to Islamizing Egypt but paid that no heed. He took off on a radical program of change trying almost overnight to make Egypt a Muslim Brotherhood run totalitarian hellhole. This was met with a public already in revolt mode and they rose up again and demanded Morsi’s head. General of the Army Sisi took the hint and removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power and held new elections. Having the most recognized name in Egypt and having just saved the day, surprisingly Sisi who had stepped down from General of the Army ran and won the Presidency of Egypt. So Egypt is now safely back under military rule for intents and purposes and appears happy to be so. The one problem is the Sinai Peninsula. The Sinai Peninsula is filled with terrorists from al-Qaeda and Islamic State to Hamas and even Iranian backed groups. They attack Egyptian military outposts with varying degrees of success. They often attack the border outposts between Egypt and Gaza in order to allow the flow of terrorists, arms, and contraband into and out of Gaza where Hamas and Islamic Jihad share control. What is interesting about Gaza is that Islamic Jihad is supplied by Iran amongst others and Hamas is Muslim Brotherhood thus provisioned by them and also on occasion they are given rocket engine technologies and even rudimentary guidance systems from Iran as Iran will even arm Sunnis if they are attacking Iran’s favorite target. Egypt has yet to put down the menaces in the Sinai Peninsula and they have even been cleared to use whatever troops and equipment they need and they are apparently fighting a losing battle, or at least not completely reaching a totally peaceful situation. Perhaps they never should have accepted the Sinai Peninsula back when they made peace between President Sadat and Prime Minister Begin.

 

Turkey is also involved in a war which few appear to care to mention. They are claiming to fight against Bashir al-Assad in Syria as well as against Islamic State but somehow the majority of their efforts appear to be barely across the border. They seem preoccupied, or at least President Erdogan is preoccupied, with the Kurds. Turkey could actually make a great agreement and win an ally for life if they would simply allow the Kurds to form their own nation out of northeastern Syria, northern Iraq and at the worst a few tens or hundreds of square miles of southeastern Turkey where the population is majority Kurdish. The United States or other groups would probably handsomely reward Turkey for the lost lands, give a relocation allowance to any Turkish non-Kurdish citizens desiring to leave the Kurdish nation and return to Turkey and all could be settled. Even if Turkey refused to sacrifice a small portion of land, the Kurds in Turkey would likely relocate if they were granted recognition as a nation as was promised them by the British (we all know how good the British are on their promises when oil is involved). Turkey has been bombing and using ground assaults backed by heavy armor against the Kurds who have largely been fighting the Islamic State. Apparently Turkey would prefer the Islamic State on their border than the Kurds, there is no accounting for taste.

 

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

Middle East & North Africa (MENA)

 

Then there are the wars outside of Yemen and Gaza where Iran is a major player. We are referring to Iraq and Syria where Iran is attempting to rule Iraq through proxy and reestablish Bashir al-Assad as the ruler of Syria. Bashir al-Assad has lost almost the entirety of his nation to the Islamic State, a number of other rebels, a Kurdish section which is simply attempting to protect their own people as well as the Yazidi refugees they took in after rescuing them when the rest of the world twiddled their thumbs, President Obama leading the thumb twiddlers. Iran has a friend in Russia who are actually fighting simply to retain their Mediterranean Sea port privileges such that they retain a warm water port capable of allowing ships to enter the Atlantic Ocean year round without having to pass through the Dardanelles in Turkey, an iffy situation at times. That is why the majority of the Russian operations center around Latakia and the port facilities located in that Mediterranean coastal city. Latakia is also in the central region where the Alawite Tribe resides which also happens to be Bashir al-Assad’s allies and tribal alliance and they along with some of the Druze except they have largely withdrawn and are simply, as are the Kurds, defending their own people and lands from the Islamic State and any other threats. They are safe from the Russians, Iranians and Syrian Army and even most likely the Hezballah forces from Lebanon who are supporting Bashir al-Assad as if Syria was their own country and not Lebanon. Hezballah is there because Iran insisted they fight or else Iran would have cut them off and they would then be facing the rest of Lebanon ready to dispose of the Hezballah terrorists who have been ruling Lebanon through their military threat. The one benefit of Hezballah fighting in Syria and taking the casualties in numbers far higher than are admitted is they are unable to attack any others including but not limited to the Christians and other minorities in Lebanon.

 

Our final stop is at the Afghanistan and Pakistan end of MENA. We left out some of the nations at the far end of northern Africa where one of the major problems is Boko Haram who are bloodthirsty Islamist terrorists who often kidnap Christians and even other Muslims and sell them into slavery. They specialize in selling to the sex slave industry and thus most often target young women and boys. Their other main effort is to murder Christians and Animists, something which sounds familiar from the South Sudan. Boko Haram operated largely centered on northern and central Nigeria and the neighboring areas even south to Mali. Meanwhile, Afghanistan and Pakistan consist of large areas which are considered tribal and the government rarely enters these zones as the tribes are well armed and do not recognize the governmental right to their areas. Too often these tribal areas will war with one another and then they make their money off of allowing terrorists to train and make a lucrative business from poppies. The heroin trade is something the government does not fight as they too benefit from the trafficking in illicit drugs. Until there is introduced another cash crop the farmers will grow and sell the easiest and most profitable crop they can raise, poppies. The flowers are almost as pretty as the profits. Needless to point out but where you have such profits there will always be violence as the tribes desire to expand their fields and taking the tribe next door’s fields is the quickest way to making more profit. Additionally, there is the constant state of conflict between Pakistan and India over Kashmir, a nation which appears on older maps and had the distinction of having to be colored white because it had so many neighboring nations on its border that it needed it own color and white was the best one not in use anywhere else. That concludes our Middle East conflict roundup leaving one nation obviously ignored, imagine all this without mentioning the nation always considered the source of the Middle East conflict chart. Perhaps the rest of it is not so peaceful after all.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 17, 2016

Iran Warns Trump to Obey Nuclear Deal While Breaking Deal Themselves

 

Behrouz Kamalvandi, the spokesman for Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, fired the initial salvo at Trump insisting, “We are not much concerned about the statements made by Trump’s advisers. The US president-elect Donald Trump cannot neglect the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and it has to abide by.” This has been further backed by senior officials in Tehran who have dismissed the recent election of Donald Trump and warned his incoming administration against taking a firmer stance against the Islamic Republic’s continued military buildup. All of this bluster was thrown to cloud the air and muddy the waters in an attempt to draw the President Elect into a battle of words while they make deals with the Russians and seek deals with China in breach of the agreement themselves. Of course Iran has countered that all of their weapons systems purchases have been for a defensive force. In the meantime Iran is seeking to purchase T-90 series tanks, computer guided artillery systems and the most advanced modern fighter aircraft from Moscow and are looking to Moscow and Beijing to keep Iran armed with the most advanced weapons systems for the foreseeable future. The immediate talks with Russia are for an arms deal costing in the neighborhood of ten billion, with a ‘B’, dollars. This all comes on the heels of acknowledgement by Obama Administration sources of payment of additional tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars which the media was assured were not to be used for terror operations or weapons purchases. Apparently these purchases must be being paid for with billions of dollars other than the billions just admitted to having been sent and from the billions of dollars which accompanied the main nuclear deal or the billions of dollars from the cancelled arms deal from the Carter Administration where President Obama condoned and approved the payment of those funds from the Shah’s times plus all the interest and penalties decided as mitigation by some third party, we believe it must have been the United Nations. There have been so many separate and disparate payments to Iran in the past year that it is difficult keeping up a running tally but we figure the amount has to be approaching if not passing one trillion dollars. All that matters is that the United States is fully funding the arming of Iran making them the big bad bully of the Middle East and potentially beyond.

 

Security Council Resolution 2231 restricts Iran to purchasing solely defensive weapons; specifically it bans the sale of “battle tanks, armored combat vehicles, large-caliber artillery systems, combat aircraft, attack helicopters, and warships amongst other weapons of a similar nature. These purchases being negotiated with Russia might easily be seen as contradicting the restrictions of the United Nations Resolution but then any deal need be voted upon for approval by the Security Council where the United States could potentially use their veto power to theoretically block any such sale. Is it that we are just so untrusting and jaded by all things Iran that should such a deal pass before the Security Council in the final months of the Obama Presidency that Ambassador Powers will be instructed to simply abstain. One would hope that there would be a stoppage of such a sale to Iran but as long as the deal seeks approval before the coming Inauguration Day this January, it will probably be permitted to pass by unopposed and such will not likely draw any rebuke or even reporting by most if not all of the media. All one need do for proof is look at all the front page top of the fold coverage these arms negotiation are receiving from the paper of record, the New York Times, or any of their surrogates found in almost every major city. If you are thinking you must have missed that day, fear not, so did our intrepid reporters for these exalted journals of record. The story if being covered has thus far been buried well inside if reported upon at all. We would not have known, though we have long suspected, unless we had received a report in our e-mails from one of our sources. Of course the reality is that whether or not the Security Council approves such a sale of whether or not the United States uses their veto power, nothing is going to be heeded which comes between Russia and the cash for their bare treasury or the Iranians and their desired military equipment. We cannot even expect the delay such as was the result of opposition to the sale of the S-300 Series Anti-Aircraft Batteries replete with a stock of missiles beyond those needed to arm the system so Iran has a reserve and fully capable deployment of radar vehicles which lie at the heart of the system. The current deal claims a four year wait for delivery but one can assume the armor and artillery will be transported as soon as a deliverable number has been reached and the deal will easily span the four years with the systems initially arriving with a trickle which after two years would have become a torrent.

 

T-90 Series Main Battle Tank

T-90 Series Main Battle Tank

 

Even should the deal be reached after Inauguration Day, as noted above, there will be no means of preventing these deliveries and purchases being consummated as Iran and Russia share a border as well as the Caspian Sea such that there are various means for delivery. Even President elect Trump would not risk a war with the Russians just to prevent the early delivery of arms which is questionable under Security Council Resolution thus Iran will receive the arms as they become available and Russia will pocket ten billion dollars. The particular fighter jet the Russians are offering is the Sukhoi Su-30SM multi-role fighter jets. According to the Russian TASS news services, Viktor Ozerov, head of the defense and security committee in the Russian upper house of parliament, stated, “These negotiations are being carried out, the road has been paved. The order book, discussed today, [meets] the needs of Tehran and amounts to some ten billion dollars.” He further intimated that these deals would not be a one-time delivery, but a series of transfers over a number of years and these arms deals would respect a U.N. moratorium on Iran obtaining offensive weapons which is in place until October 2020, thus Moscow would need to seek and obtain approval from the U.N. Security Council.

 

Su-30MK Multirole Fighter Aircraft

Su-30MK Multirole Fighter Aircraft

 

This information about arms deals and the intention by Russia to maintain a level of modern warfare equipment within the Iranian military is unsurprising considering their close cooperation in keeping Bashir al-Assad not only alive but as a definite threat to regain control of much if not all of Syria as it was before the Arab Spring turned into an Arab Winter and Syria was turned into a multi-front killing fields where the major brunt of the fighting has impacted the civilians. This has led to a refugee flood into Europe and the rest of the Western World wherever these refugees could gain entry. These people fleeing the violence in Syria ended up representing at best half of the refugees with the remainder arriving from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Turkey, Nigeria, Kenya, the Horn of Africa (Somalia, Eritrea ,,,) and other impoverished and undeveloped nations within MENA (Middle East and North Africa) nations. Many of the refugees are men of fighting ages between fourteen and forty-plus fleeing the fighting in order to avoid being drafted and impressed into serving in any one of the terror armies. There have been reports that amongst the refugees is a secreted army from the Islamic State, al-Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood, Hezballah, IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) and other terror entities for the purpose of organizing terror cells, training them and unleashing Jihad throughout the Western World. These infiltrators are intended to set up theaters of operations and work together and plan simultaneous strikes such that anti-terror forces will be stretched thin and thus more easily out gunned and facing threats beyond their training levels and abilities will allow their providing adequate protection for the public. Their next step will be to step up such attacks that liberties and freedoms will need to be curtailed, or at least this is what the governing bodies will tell the people. Once this starts there is no stopping these nations becoming police states run by strong leaders who will suspend normal government functions with martial law proclaimed and fascist governance arriving throughout the West. This is a large part of the call by President elect Donald Trump to stop Muslim immigration until a proper vetting process can be implemented and put in place. Despite the hysterical reporting by the mainstream media, Trump is not xenophobic nor is he anti-Muslim; he simply desires for the refugees who desire to stream into the United States are who they claim and not terrorist pawns, organizers, trainers and experts at varied skills such as bomb making. The backing of the Assad regime by Iran was problematic but with Russia opposing the terrorists supported thus far by the States there is a need for dialog and compromises to be reached and implemented. Add in Turkey and the desires of Erdogan to decimate the Kurdish people and claiming the northern half of Syria and much of Iraq including Aleppo and Mosul and Turkish troops having already entered and infiltrated both Syrian and Iraqi territories and you have the perfect storm for a Russia-NATO war as Turkey is a NATO member state and the United States is already supporting a side which is fighting against the Assad regime and its remnants of the Syrian military, Iraq, Hezballah and, most of all, Russia. This makes for a potentially dicey situation with multiple fronts which could drag the West against Russia reigniting the tensions of the Cold War.

 

The final interest which need play its hand carefully but still with finesse and some brazen boldness is Israel. The news as far as Israel is concerned has its beneficial components and its components which are to her detriment. So as to end on an upbeat theme, let’s simply get the bad news out of the way. The biggest problem is the fact that Iran has transgressed the nuclear agreement at every turn and is now prepared to buy themselves a completely modern offensive styled military force. The planned aircraft are to include Ilyushin Il-78 four-engine aerial refueling tanker from Russia along with the longer ranged Su-30SM, which already could have flown the roundtrip necessary to launch an attack on Israel and have fifteen minutes loitering time all without refueling. With refueling capability, the range of these multi-use jet fighters has become anywhere on the globe. Add the assistance in their nuclear research received from North Korea in exchange for missile technology, China in order to counterbalance the power of the United States by adding a new threat on the horizon and by Russia for similar reasons as China plus the cash-flow so needed now by the Russian economy and government and there will be no preventing the full rearming of Iran and its hegemonic designs. Israel ends up with a heavily armed foe who is currently engaged in a brutal war right on the border with Israel’s Golan Heights which overlook southwestern Syria including Damascus. Additionally, Iran arms and trains Hezballah and has in the past provided arms for Hamas in Gaza including longer ranged rockets which can reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. The rockets and missiles provided Hezballah are an even greater threat as there are estimated some one-hundred to hundred-fifty thousand rockets and missiles of varying ranges and payloads. The largest of these carry two thousand pound warheads and are capable of carrying a nuclear payload and can reach any point in Israel including the southern port of Eilat all from well within Lebanon. The next war initiated by Hezballah will not be a limited engagement as the past wars were fought. Because of this additional firepower capable of crippling Israel both financially and in lost souls with the second being the greater blow, Israel will be forced to counter-attack with virtually everything she has in order to prevent a second barrage from correcting for any misses thus all but guaranteeing Israel pay dearly for not mitigating this known situation. What is amazing is that there are more missiles and rockets pointed at Israel than any other nation and the count is not even close. If one were to add to the Hezballah numbers the rockets stashed in Hamas and the numbers which are hidden in the areas ruled by the Palestinian Authority plus Iran and it might be reaching a total near or higher than two hundred thousands. Being the first most targeted nation on earth is not exactly the number one rating Israel strives for, nor is it at all desirous; she is just the result of belligerence and hatreds of the nations in her neighborhood. Add modern Russian equipment for the Iranian military as well as their special IRGC troops whose responsibility is to export the Iranian revolution throughout the world, we will see increased terrorism and even revolutions in Northern Africa. Israel even gets special targeting from the IRGC which includes a special force called the “al-Quds Force” which trains exclusively to attack and take Jerusalem and hold especially the Temple Mount and Kotel denying Jews access to their holy sites in their capital city of Jerusalem. Hezballah, al-Quds Force, IRGC, Syrian open war zone, Hamas, Islamic State, Iran and now being backed, trained and armed by Russia and China all paid for by the United States with a few extra tens and hundreds of millions of dollars and the Obama Presidency still having a little over two months to go, who knows what mischief they can get into and how much of such will be placing Israel in a tighter and tighter spot which will only increase the possibility for war. History has proven that when a nation arms up and modernizes their military and triples their credible force projection, these new guns and jets and missiles and everything else possibly including as many as twenty deliverable nuclear devices and Iran just sitting on all that hardware just does not fill me with confidence in the status-quo. There have been rumors of an Israeli defensive system which will make most of rocketry and missile technology obsolete and also scores excellent kill ratios on even the finest of the latest eccentric missile trajectory technology. Let us pray that they never be required to be used and may the words of Isaiah come true in our day and in a near time and the world reach the point which truly calls the Messiah to Jerusalem where they will set things as Hashem has decided.

 

And many people shall go and say, Come ye, and let us go up to the mountain of the LORD, to the house of the God of Jacob; and He will teach us of His ways, and we will walk in His paths: for out of Zion shall go forth the law, and the word of the LORD from Jerusalem. And He shall judge among the nations, and shall rebuke many people: and they shall beat their swords into plowshares, and their spears into pruning hooks: nation shall not lift up sword against nation, neither shall they learn war any more.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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