Beyond the Cusp

March 21, 2017

Syria Attempting to Broaden War Threatening Israel

 

Israel sent her warplanes into Syria this past weekend in order to intercept yet another attempted shipment of weapons potentially including advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon arming further the Hezballah terrorists who rule the Bekaa Valley and most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Hezballah has already taken control of most of Lebanon and has indirect, more like reviewing rights of any actions or laws, of the Lebanese government, an improvement of sorts over the direct rule they held a few years back. Apparently trying to rule and fight wars with Israel was taking too great a threat of Israel holding Lebanon responsible. Now Lebanon has been afforded plausible deniable for Hezballah military actions which has not helped much with the events across the border and within their borders with Syria. The length of the reach by Hezballah included their required approval of choice for the new Prime Minister when the new government was formed. Full display of both Lebanon’s difficulty and the threat to Israel are obvious in the map below. Syria will try to drag Israel into the war once again so they can claim to be fighting a holy war against the Zionist entity and will use all of Hezballah’s abilities if need be to accomplish this. That makes the weapons Hezballah already possess and any they are able to smuggle all the more important and why Israel must prevent certain weapons systems of ever being smuggled into Lebanon and to Hezballah forces there. That was the reason for the raid and why there may be more in the future with each one presenting the same difficulties.

 

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon
Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

 

Israeli sources including Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman reported the raid was a success and that all planes returned and were undamaged. The Syrians reported things differently claiming to have shot down one Israel aircraft and damaging another. No pictures of the destroyed Israeli plane were provided to back the Syrian claims and they have made similar claims on previous occasions including once against American aircraft under President Obama’s brief attempt at a Syrian campaign against Islamic State. The Syrians also fired four missiles into Israel with one being intercepted by the Arrow III system which was the first real world use of the system which operated well in all aspects. The remaining three landed in open areas, two in the Israel area of the Jordan Valley and the final one landed in Jordan reportedly causing no damage or loss of life. The attempt by Syria to provide their Hezballah ally with rockets is far from new and Israel has taken to only intercepting weapon systems which would provide Hezballah with additional capabilities with the most serious being anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. The Iranians have been attempting to provide the Hezballah terrorists with the Chinese C803 anti-ship missiles as well as SAM missile batteries of a more advanced series than those in the Bekaa Valley already. This probably requires an update on the extent to which Hezballah has been rearmed since the United Nations, United States and European Union guaranteed after the Second Lebanon War as part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the doubling the size of the UNIFIL forces who were assigned to prevent Hezballah from rebuilding their tunnel and bunker systems and rearming with rockets, let alone missiles.

 

The UNIFIL forces have been photographed allowing and even assisting in loading their trucks to move Hezballah munitions, armaments, rockets and personnel around in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, the area where they are presumably tasked to prevent Hezballah from accomplishing such minor details. Hezballah had completely restructured their tunnel systems, underground bunkers, and massively extended these systems and improved their command and control as well as their communications systems and networks. This will have massive positive effect on their abilities and lethality should there ever be a need for Israel to attempt to blunt their threat to Israeli existence. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezballah was suspected of having stocks reaching as high as thirty-five-thousand rockets of which a very small percentage were of the larger varieties able of reaching beyond Haifa and even fewer which had any guidance whatsoever. This had vastly changed. Their current armaments include tens of thousands of missiles with ranges reaching the entire length of Israel carrying as high as five-hundred kilo warheads which also makes the nuclear arms capable. The various names are easy to remember and they are with their range, diameter and payloads as follows:

Katyusha approx. 132mm diameter range 10 kilometer with a 5 kg payloads
FAJR-3 approx. 240mm diameter range of 43 kilometer with a 45 kg payload
FAJR-5 approx. 233mm diameter range of 75 kilometer with a 175 kg payload
Fateh-110/M-600 approx. 0.61 m diameter range of 300 kilometer with a 500-650 kg payload
Zelzal-2 approx. 610 mm diameter range of 210 kilometer with a 600 kg payload
SKUD-D approx. 0.88 m diameter range of 700 kilometer with a 1000 kg payload

The map below indicates the ranges as they pertain to Israel and the danger becomes evident, very evident. This is one of many reasons that Israel has developed the world’s most advanced layered missile defense systems and is working on secondary and triple level means of intercepting all varieties of indirect weaponry including missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars. Israelis are thankful as many lives have been saved and apparently more will need these systems in the future, which is unfortunate.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah has not just tens of thousands of rockets and missiles but somewhere approaching two-hundred-thousand of varying sizes and capabilities. Additionally, there have been reports that through captured weaponry from various Syrian rebel groups that Hezballah has come into possession of a limited number of American MANPAD anti-aircraft weapons as well as similar systems designed from Russian and Chinese types of anti-aircraft weapons of a similar nature. These anti-aircraft and any anti-ship missiles which the Iranians have managed to provide to Hezballah are amongst the most dangerous should another war break out. The last war already provided ample indications that Hezballah has received numerous effective anti-tank rockets and have developed very effective tactics for their deployment. This was one area which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) needed to develop some form of countermeasures. The greatest threat is to the Israeli public as Hezballah’s numbers of missiles are sufficient to use for swarm attacks as they can lose large numbers to interception providing they are able to get some percentage through the Israeli defenses. The numbers of missiles makes air superiority a necessity which is why Israel cannot allow large numbers or advanced air defenses to be provided to Hezballah as only through air superiority can Israel successfully destroy the stores of missiles and their launchers before they are sent in numbers over Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beersheba and numerous others.

 

The difference between Hezballah and Israel is a familiar one but still important to mention while we are on the subject. First, Hezballah uses identical tactics as does Hamas and will the PLO, which is to say the Palestinian Authority when they decide they have gained all they can through blackmail and using the world to demand Israel kowtow to demands for their surrender and return to their terrorist ways, which means firing from behind the people they claim to protect while Israel does everything possible to protect civilians, both Israeli and Palestinians. Hezballah has placed their rocket launchers inside civilian homes and place their command bunkers under hospitals, schools and even Mosques. They defend their positions using civilians and store their weapons and rockets in civilian’s homes, Mosques and schools. Hezballah builds tunnels and bunkers in which they secure their fighters and civilians are forced to remain on the surface usually near Hezballah fighter locations. Further, Hezballah uses villages and towns as their operations centers and builds fighting positions within these locations often people’s homes, schools and other public locations. The Hezballah tactic is to maximize civilian deaths, hardships and destruction of civilian structures all such that at the end of the conflict they can show this destruction to the media as proof of Israel offenses claiming the Israelis simply attacked civilian homes and structures out of spite and not because of their being used as military enforcements. Often the media can tell the claims are bogus as they can see the fortifications and still take their photographs using such angles so as to avoid displaying the fortifications while maximizing the obvious damage. Often the media has their photos and stories edited by Hezballah and in order to be permitted to return and cover future events each media outlet is required to follow the Hezballah story otherwise their entire news service will be barred from covering anything in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel the media is permitted complete freedom and is free from any forms of censorship whatsoever which is why often the bad stories come out about Israel while Israeli enemies always get star treatment by the media. Israel suffers from the identical media difficulty that the United States also faces with total freedom of the media. When you have no operational control over the media and their stories and your enemy exercises total media control and is willing to lie and the media willingly follows along with their messages, it should be no surprise that Israel has the media difficulty.

 

The final warping of the media coverage is the often result in civilian casualties between Israel and her enemies. The extensive efforts that Israel goes to in order to keep its civilians protected, its enemies all spend seemingly an equal amount of effort to maximize the destruction of civilian structures and the numbers of dead and injured civilians they are able to produce. This leads to a high civilian casualty count while Israel often suffers minimal civilian deaths and casualties. Israelis are well trained and are conscious of the closest shelter when there is a war and are willing to drop anything including prayers to head to their closest shelter. Israel’s enemy governments and terror forces consider shelters as a waste of resources which could be better used to purchase weapons. This leads to a civilian casualty count in Israel often approaching zero while her enemies who place their fighting forces and weapons stores and rocket tubes within civilian homes and use civilians as human shields suffer civilian casualties in the tens, hundreds or unfortunately thousands. Still, it has been shown and witnessed that Israel does far more than any other military to protect and avoid civilian casualties on either side even to the point of calling off strikes to avoid civilian casualties even when the civilians have voluntarily gathered to protect terrorists. The IDF is amongst, if not the, most moral military in all history. Don’t take our word for it; listen to Colonel Richard Kemp in the video below giving evidence to the United Nations.

 

 

An example came when the IDF had three terrorist leaders holed up in a Mosque in Gaza. The IDF troops refused to enter the Mosque as this is something they avoid out of respect for a house of worship (you never want to see what Israel’s enemies do to captured Synagogues). Hamas radio called for women to rush to the Mosque with some extra burkas and within minute’s two dozen women in burkas and some carrying burkas entered the Mosque. Soon afterwards, the women left the Mosque as a mob hiding the three terrorists wearing burkas somewhere in the group. The IDF officer ordered his men to simply leave as the alternative would have been unthinkable for IDF soldiers to potentially appear to accost Muslim women.

 

In conclusion, the problem facing Israel also involves Russia as the ally and enforcement arm of Syria. Israel coordinates with the Russian commanders before sending any aircraft into Syrian airspace such that Russian and Israeli aircraft are not in conflict. Thus far, by all information, the Russians have not been sharing such information with the Syrians intentionally but there is obviously some leakage. When Bashir al-Assad’s military commanders receive hints or information of an imminent Israeli strike they inform their militias and other unattached forces who have been armed and often actually are Hezballah and receiving support directly from Iran. Syria would love to open a front against Israel in the hopes of internationalizing the war and bringing it before the United Nations General Assembly where Israel will be once again denounced. The end result will be a front opened across the Golan Heights with Hezballah attacking from the Israeli northern border backed by the Lebanese Army which is American armed including tanks and aircraft. As they have already been given these arms, the merging of the Lebanese Army with Hezballah being placed under their control, Israel may be facing the combined forces of Hezballah, Lebanon, Syrians and presumably independent militias all of which are backed by Russia. Russia is not in any means taking action against Israel and with Iran gathering forces and aligning forces under a unified command group independent of the Russians, is going to put Putin into a delicate position. When these forces finally open a full force assault upon Israel in an attempt to bring things before the United Nations where Israel will be blamed for initiating the violence and this will place Russia in the position of deciding whether to pull out of Syria demanding that their port facilities in Latakia as Russian protected territory and otherwise Russian forces will stand down and release Syria to its fate or Russia continuing to back Syria and very possibly be drawn into a war with Israel. Should Russia engage Israeli forces, be it on the Golan Heights or against aircraft in Syrian or Lebanese territories, then what does the United States do and NATO and the United Nations. There is a distinct possibility that the United States will use these events to press Israel into making a crippling series of concessions to Abbas giving him his state with the Green Line as a border as a prerequisite for continued aid while facing the war on the Israeli north against Syria, Lebanon, Hezballah, and full Russian assistance and Iran who will also add another front at some point using Hamas on the Israeli southern border along Gaza and with aid of militias along the Sinai-Negev front. This would soon include the Palestinian Authority as Abbas would be overthrown immediately after the forced peace and the withdrawal of the IDF either by ISIS or Hamas bringing this as well as the final front. This could lead to Israel fighting a war with fronts on all borders even to include the Mediterranean Sea leaving Israel in a desperate war for her existence and Israel would at best finally establish her borders as the Jordan River and hold the southern borders while establishing the Litani River and Golan Heights as their northern border and end these wars by establishing defendable borders with the downside of the entire nations requiring the rebuilding of her entire infrastructure. It would take Israel over a decade to rebuild but once the restructure has been completed, Israel would be the envy of the world when it comes to infrastructure and the Third Temple would be constructed and the Arabs who are unwilling to live supporting the Jewish State deported and finally a bright future before her.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 17, 2016

When Opportunists Meet

 

Moshe Ya’alon rode his wave of disruption and vitriol for all it was worth on his way out the door after turning a reprimand and offer of peace into a council for war, a war against his former friend, Bibi Netanyahu. The final fuselages fired from Ya’alon’s political muskets were easily deflected by a simple set of truths. There was the open defiance of his generals followed by the expressed displeasure of the serving Prime Minister, the same Prime Minister who had entrusted in Ya’alon with the position of Defense Minister not expecting a challenge to Netanyahu’s right and fitness to lead Likud, a position he was elected to hold by the membership of Likud. Ya’alon sided with his generals and then encouraged them to further make waves for him to ride roughshod over Netanyahu in a naked aggression challenging for the top spot. Even this was not sufficient for Bibi to declare war as he is secure in his position. The Prime Minister followed this insult with a soothing balm in the form of the position of Foreign Minister, a fine appointment most would all but kill for, yet insufficient for the hungry Ya’alon who sees now as his time. Slamming the door behind as he left the building, Ya’alon declared his intentions to replace Netanyahu as leader of Likud at the next opportunity, now he just needed wait for said opportunity. But political ambition is not a patience game and one strikes while the iron is hot.

 

Ya’alon must have welcomed the charging of the Retired Generals in their blistering reports titled Security First penned and presented by a group of retired generals and other security chiefs self-defined with the name “Commanders for Israel’s Security”. Their plans were just a rehash of their defeatist plans of surrender land and expect peace, a trade which despite numerous trials has yet to produce a true peace with any level of security. But when has failure ever altered the political path these other opportunists who have jostled their final military assignments so as to position themselves as the saviors of Israel from a problem many were complicit in forming. We can expect more from these gems in the rough as they polish their acts and each other to a lustrous shine, but diamonds these are not.

 

Former Prime Minister, Defense Minister and opportunist extraordinaire who had played friend, mentor, commander, and opponent all when it comes to his presumed friend for the expedience, an expediency which we can assume has now past, rides in Ehud Barak. One can only fear that Tzipi Livni cannot be far behind, though she would likely be seen and avoided as Kryptonite as every political entity she has touched withered and died unchosen on the vine. Speaking Thursday at the Herzliya Conference Ehud Barak called for a “popular protest” going into the next elections in order to bring Netanyahu down from power. One can only assume he sees himself as the answer as he often has previously. His claim was summed up in the quote, “A fanatical nucleus of radical ideology has taken over the Likud by taking advantages of loopholes in the party’s constitution regarding primaries, and ‘cleansed’ Likud’s leadership of all those who valued democratic values more than populism or a temporary accomplishment.” Why not just call his former boss and prior supporter as well as adversary an adversary again, the time seems right and the correct attacks from the right people appear thick in the atmosphere, but is this political fog one of change or just a low lying haze blinding small men’s sight? Attacking the entire Zionist branch of the populace as well as their representatives in power, Barak went on to restate previously disproven canards declaring where the current dreaded path would lead pronouncing as proven fact that, “Implementing the government’s current policy will necessarily lead to an ‘apartheid state’ or a ‘binational state’ with a Jewish minority within a generation or two, with a high likelihood of being engaged in an ongoing civil war between its two parts.” Population statistics and all other studies performed on any logical assessment of annexation of Judea and Samaria have shown both the apartheid state’ or a ‘binational state’ accusations of unavoidability to be as false as predictable trends can prove, but why let facts get in the way of another attack from the leftist peace through surrender camp. Their previous peace through surrender in Lebanon and Gaza have turned out so well, why not triple down and bet the house one last time, and it will be the last time as those who are fortunate might escape back into the Diaspora.

 

Ehud Barak then pointed out that should Prime Minister Netanyahu take Israel down the dangerous path of annexation, even of the main settlement blocks, it would bring ruin down upon Israel and that the only true path would be to start and start immediately dismantling the Settlements in occupied West Bank and bring them back within the Green Line as such would pacify Europe, the United Nations, President Obama, and, most of all, the Palestinians. There would be peace and flowers would grow on barren soil and there would be peace, blessed peace. There is absolutely no possibility that Mahmoud Abbas would rain rockets tipped with sarin gas down on Tel Aviv at the sight of three soldiers talking as he would claim Israel was massing troops to invade and had to be prevented. The world would then congratulate Abbas for keeping the peace as he destroyed the other settlements temporarily occupied by Israel, the settlements of Tel Aviv, Ashdod, Netanya, Ma’alot, Ashkelon, Beersheba, Dimona, Eilat, Jaffa, Haifa and the rest as they join in the desire with Mahmoud Abbas that Israel, the Jewish State, must be destroyed and destroyed utterly. These are the voices and sounds of the next Holocaust waiting for some fool to facilitate it in the name of Peace.

 

Quoting Jeremiah 6:14 as was so famously performed by Patrick Henry in his speech to the Virginia House of Burgesses on March 23, 1775, considering ratification of the Declaration of Independence he talked of Peace, peace, but there is no peace, the speech in its entirety, one of the most powerful of all speeches throughout history, he concluded stating (full text of speech can be found here)


Gentlemen may cry, ‘Peace! Peace!’ but there is no peace. The war is actually begun! The next gale that sweeps from the north will bring to our ears the clash of resounding arms! Our brethren are already in the field! Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty, or give me death!

 

Ya’alon, for his part, has changed his tune now referring to Iran as a minor nuisance and not an existential threat as he had previously claimed when serving as Defense Minister, something we can simply assure ourselves he was ordered to claim that by the warmonger Bibi in order to frighten the masses into continuing to keep him and his Zionist crazies in power. Never mind that Abbas has said so in just so many words, unfortunately in that coded language which none appear capable of translating or even reading other sources who have translated them for the lazy such as us, there can be no peace as long as even a millimeter of Palestinian Land is occupied. Here is part of a press conference from 2015 where Mahmoud Abbas speaks his truth on occupation, sixty-seven years, since 1948 and the founding of Israel.

 

 

The maps used by Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian and UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East) schools all show the truth according to the Arab Palestinians teach their reality which has no room for an Israel and especially an Israel as the homeland for the Jewish People. It is the totality demands that resistance of the occupation has been claimed to remain even after any two state settlement may be reached as for the Arabs the only result they will accept is the ‘liberation’ of all of Israel and the eradication of all Jews.

 

Palestinian Textbook Maps depicting Palestine as replacing Israel, not sharing the land in peace and security as the Europeans and the rest of the West insist to misrepresent

 

Abbas Accepting Map Depicting Palestine Replacing all of Israel and Looking Extremely Pleased

 

The evidence of the real Palestinian agenda is often laid bare for all to see but most just ignore the evidence and instead believe fairy-tales they have heard repeated by Western diplomats and politicians who want a Nobel Peace Prize which comes along with even a long handshake between Arabs and Israelis. When Soda Stream moved its Judea factory within the Green Line in the northern Negev, they were met by BDS (Boycott Divestment and Sanction of Israel) claiming a victory and then made known their new program against Soda Stream. The BDS claim was Soda Stream buckled under their pressure and then they immediately claimed that the new Soda Stream factory was built on ‘occupied, stolen’ land from the Bedouin town of Rahat, Israel. This is simply a case that the only thing acceptable to the BDS campaign is the eradication of Israel and every Jew residing there after which they would likely turn their sights on all other Jews. There is a reason their chant goes as it does other than to rhyme but to express their true goals when they proclaim, From the (Jordan) River to the (Mediterranean) Sea; Palestine Must Be Free!

 

 

These small and inconvenient facts do not bother the likes as the Retired Generals and Security Chiefs nor does it bother Moshe Ya’alon or Ehud Barak as any weapon in a fight is to be utilized and the war against Bibi Netanyahu must proceed despite any dangers which might arise. In this case not only does reality bite, but these opportunists chomp and chomp again at the bit just salivating for their chance to take home the prize. That is the reality that these opportunists live for and what they would be willing to allow all Israel to die for as a result. Just as long as they get to sit in the big chair in the big office being sought by small and petty men, that any consequence be damned as they demand their rightful prize. Further, it is tough out there but before jumping ship, and trust that we have our misgivings about Bibi and would love another choice of a viable and true Zionist, how much tougher will it be when the economic heart and soul of Israel lie smoldering with the acrid stench of death and chemicals fills the air? What is the use of new leadership at the helm steering the ship of state through coral shoals and waters if the mutineers have no true map, just this crazed notion that the sweet song from the shores is irresistible and they must draw nigh ignoring the jagged and sharp rocks and the broken timbers from previous ships who too ignored the warnings and answered the sweet Siren’s song. The sweet song of peace in our time has been tried countless times but there is a way which guarantees that Israel will live, that Am Yisroel Chai, and it comes from the Spartan phrase, the words of King Leonidas,

300px-molon_labe.jpg
Molon Labe

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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