Beyond the Cusp

August 1, 2019

Election Update, Can Bibi be Stopped?

 

We are not foolish enough or so blind as to believe that Bibi will not be forming the next government. This is almost an inevitability. But what can be prevented is his forming a “Unity Government” with Blue White while leaving the New Right-United Right coalition he all but forged himself out in the cold. It is entirely possible, probable even, that between Likud and Blue White parties they will have over sixty mandates likely achieving as high as sixty-seven mandates between the two parties. Such an outcome precludes any other parties being required to form a government. We understand that everyone who proposed such an outcome thus far have had their prediction ridiculed and their acumen questioned. We would rather simply explain our reasoning and allow it to stand or be crushed by the eventual events surrounding the coming September elections.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

First, we will admit we feared this when Bibi was unable to cobble together a right-leaning coalition after the elections just passed and failed in forming a coalition. We even see the European Union (EU) having a small hand in these coming disasters. They are the reason that Bibi needs a coalition which he has sufficient control such that it cannot crumble as the plans move ahead. Bibi is facing the Sharon moment when his entire reputation into the future will be affected. Ariel Sharon faced a similar threat to his plan but managed to form a new coalition under a new party without holding elections. He took a fair number of Likud members as the core to his new Kadima Party and formed a unity government around them using the Labor Party as the main partner. This led to the Gaza Withdrawal. One particular factoid which bears remembering is that until immediately before the Gaza Withdrawal was executed, Bibi Netanyahu remained allied with Ariel Sharon only pulling his support when it became obvious that Bibi would have lost his credibility within Likud, something which would have made his run as Prime Minister impossible. Bibi pulling away from Sharon was something necessary for its political expediency and to hold together the power base which Bibi had formed and who would be his springboard back into the Prime Minister position. But Bibi also was impressed by the media attention and the praises lavished upon Ariel Sharon simply for his having permitted Israeli policies to be dictated by the United States, specifically the State Department, and the approving light shined on the Gaza Withdrawal by the EU and its member states.

 

We have always suspected that Bibi Netanyahu plays to two audiences, the core Likudnics who keep him at the fore of his party and the European leaders from their respective capitals and the EU as the voice of Europe. These are also the main controlling forces behind much of the world media, or the result of what the media praises and condemns. Bibi is not solely to blame for far too many of the positions and decisions he makes as we fear that Sarah, his wife, has far too much sway and influence over his actions and even sometimes what he is permitted to think. This may have been the source rumors after the last elections that Bibi had signed an agreement with the EU allowing them to build anywhere in Area C from the Oslo Accords which had designated Areas A and B for the Palestinians to build and Area C was to be reserved for Israel. Of course it did not take the EU and numerous European nations along with the United States State Department, from now on this grouping shall be referred to as “the Beasts,” from decrying that the entirety of the disputed territory was supposed to be given to the Arabs and Israel should just be glad they were permitted to win the Six Day War and Yom Kippur War. Any other nation on planet Earth who had been attacked by around half a dozen neighboring countries would be granted the right to annex whatever lands were considered necessary to provide more secure and defensible borders. The aggrieved nation would also have the right to force the inhabitants of any lands they deemed necessary for their achieving good and decent borders to relocate into the nation from which said lands were acquired without any remuneration. These were the rules by which the entirety of the map of Europe was drawn, actually redrawn, after World War I when the Austria-Hungarian Empire and German Empire were broken up by the victorious allies (see maps below). This redrawing of the map even went so far as to create several nations such as Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. These nations were formed under the auspices that indigenous peoples required their own nation, the exact reason why at the same time as Europe was redrawn, so was the Ottoman Empire and Israel was to be established as the homeland of the Jewish People. The British Mandate declared that the borders of the state of Israel were the Negev border with the Sinai Peninsula, the Blue Line with Lebanon, the Golan Heights with Syria and the Jordan River with Transjordan (later renamed Jordan). What is most definitely notable by its absence is the imaginary nation of Palestine where Palestinian Arabs presumably are the indigenous peoples.

 

German Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire Before WWI and After WWI

German Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire Before WWI and After WWI

 

Even the wars Israel was forced to fight simply to be born in 1948, again in 1967 and once more in 1973, after this loss the new tactic of terrorism and destroying Israel in stages became the order of the day. So, let us list the combatants in each of the wars Israel has survived and it just may be educational for us. The war of 1948 has euphemistically called the Israeli War of Independence simply because the war was launched mere hours after Israel was formed and had declared their independence from the British Mandate and British rule. A more accurate description of the war was given by Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League at that time, who stated, “It will be a war of annihilation. It will be a momentous massacre in history that will be talked about like the massacres of the Mongols or the Crusades.” The proper name for the 1948 war is it was a War of Annihilation where the Jews would be wiped from the map of the Middle East and the world. Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen who were further aided by irregulars such as the Holy War Army, Arab Liberation Army and other militias plus what were called foreign volunteers consisting of the Muslim Brotherhood, Pakistan and the Sudan. Then in 1967 came the Six Day War, so named because it took six days. The combatants on the Arab side were Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon along with aid from numerous other Arab nations and several militias. The war in 1973 was launched in a surprise attack by the Arab forces on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur when virtually everybody was either in Synagogue or at the beach if they were less religious. For the history challenged, this was before cellphones and the IDF commanders sent trucks with loudspeakers atop announcing the universal call up as Israel was at war. IDF soldiers were seen running through the streets to their homes to grab their military gear and then they met up and formed impromptu units with whomever they had and set off to turn back the invading Arab armies. These included Egypt and Syria with expeditionary forces, a nice way of saying they did not send everybody, from Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Cuba with the entire effort supported and armed by the USSR. This was the time when the Russian leader Leonid Brezhnev called Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir demanding that Israel cease fighting their poor innocent Arab allies by noon Thursday or face the wrath of the Soviet Union. The call was made on Tuesday and Golda Meir simply replied to Leonid Brezhnev asking, “Why wait?” or so it was reported. The Soviet Union did not join the war. But reviewing the names of those who fought against Israel and one notices the absence of anything remotely Palestine related. The claim that Israel was founded over top of what was Palestine hold no validity either as before the lands became Israel, they were a part of the British Mandate and before that the Ottoman Empire. There has never been a nation called Palestine in all of history. But the world is dead set on inventing it and working with the Arabs to replace Israel with Palestine.

 

This is the reason that the EU pressed Israel to provide them permission to build in Area C where their intent is to place Palestinian towns such that all the Jewish communities are completely cut off from Israel and can be suffocated when the next round of violence starts. The EU has already been building a number of these communities without permits or any arrangements for making them habitable. They do serve well as a propaganda and political message as the Arabs will place themselves in these towns and guides bring EU officials, heads of state and UN officials through these communities pointing out their dearth of utilities or anything which might make them habitable. Since these communities have thus far been simply thrown up anywhere the EU can find open areas, preferable at hill tops or other critical places all without permits or making arrangements, these communities lack roads, electricity, gas, water, sewage or any other niceties. They even lack cable television. When the tours are given, the lack of utilities is blamed on Israel and these officials gobble that up without checking the validity, after all, the Jews are denying these poor people utilities, why look up the facts when it is so obvious to these anti-Semites. But this is apparently about to change, and why, because the EU and the UN and far too many leaders around the world to even try to list have all claimed that all of the disputed area must not be returned to Israel. But now the EU desires having these communities and all future EU constructions to be provided with utilities, roads and everything to make them habitable and thus new facts on the ground supporting the claims by leftists and anti-Israeli, anti-Zionist and anti-Semites that none of the disputed territories have any relation which could imply Israeli ownership of these lands. These are all parts of the efforts which began almost immediately after the San Remo Conference set the lands between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River as set aside for the Jewish State. Even Egypt and Jordan recognized that they had held Gaza and the Shomron (West Bank) actually belong to Israel as they relented all claims to these areas which they had illegally occupied from 1949 until Israel liberated them in the 1967 Six Day War. The only remaining action under international law which remained to be executed was the relocating of the peoples back into the redrawn borders placing them under their proper national control. But why allow a little thing such as international law be applied to Israel which, according to so many in this world of ours, has no right to exist on any land no matter how small an area. The main country which has made any moves towards recognition of the Israeli right to these lands has been the United States and largely due to the support given Israel by Congress since the early 1970’s when United States aid and allying with Israel initially began.

 

For those who believe that the United States has always had Israel’s back, here are a few facts which belie such thoughts. Yes, the United States voted for the UN patrician plan which would have taken the lands west of the Jordan river and divided it between Israel and a new Arab state (see map below). They then proceeded to place an arms embargo on the entire Middle East which allowed the Soviet Union to back their Arab allies and left Israel basically alone. Israel was originally provided aircraft by France who sold Israel some Mirage jets. The United States took an interest in Israel after the Six Day War as Israel appeared to be worthy of American support against the Soviet backed Arab states. It was when Israel was about to put the Lavi fighter, an indigenous production by Israeli industries, that the United States had second thoughts. The Lavi would have been in direct competition with the F-16 on the international arms market that caused the United States to propose a deal with Israel if she would stop their production of the Lavi even before they had started to produce this indigenous fighter jet. America offered F-16’s plus F-15’s and they promised that Israel would always have air superiority supported by the United States. This promise has recently fallen by the wayside as the United States is providing Saudi Arabia and Egypt with F-35 JSF’s, the same aircraft they have provided Israel thus making the Arab air forces having more F-35 JSF’s than Israel possesses. For this reason, economic reasons and simply dependence on nobody else are reasons that Israel must immediately make plans to produce their own aircraft once more. This would provide for thousands of high paying jobs for everything from production line personnel to the engineers required to design the next generation of jet fighters and other support aircraft. This would make Israel more independent and no longer having to rely on the United States aircraft meeting the Israeli requirements for their own air superiority.

 

Israel Through the Ages United Nations Proposed and Arab Rejected Partition and Israel as Promised by International Treaty Israel on Morning of May 15 Before War of Annihilation

Israel Through the Ages
United Nations Proposed and Arab Rejected
Partition and Israel as Promised by International Treaty
Israel on Morning of May 15 Before War of Annihilation

 

Meanwhile, Bibi Netanyahu has already begun working on the means for permitting the EU to build facts on the ground in Area C. In a recent Cabinet meeting, Ministers set guidelines for approval of construction of housing units for Arabs in Area C. This is the necessary step required to make these EU communities legal and becoming fact on the ground. Once there have been guidelines set, they can be twisted, spindled, folded, torn and manipulated in order to provide cover for any and everything the EU desire to build and the eventual cutting off of the Jewish communities in Area C such that they will become unsupportable and have to be relinquished upon which the Arabs will take them over as well. The end result of this is to allow for the creation of an Arab Palestinian state covering the entirety of the disputed lands. The only area which would remain disputed would be East Jerusalem. This is where the PLO and PA demand that their state have its capital city. Should the Arabs succeed in making East Jerusalem part of their state, it would mean the Western Wall, Temple Mount and numerous other historic and biblical places being placed beyond the reach of the Jews just as it was when Jordan occupied these lands. Gaza has already been surrendered and Hamas with Islamic Jihad hold this region from which they launch attacks upon Israel often at the behest of Iran. Should the EU, UN, world busybodies and whomever else is pressing for the establishing of a new Arab state cut from the midsection of Israel succeed, which with Bibi’s assistance is inevitable, then Israel will have been forced back to the initial borders she faced at the onset of the Six Day War. This would make Israel nine miles in width at her narrowest point centered on Tel Aviv. This would place Tel Aviv in direct fire from rockets shot off the Judean Hills overlooking the center of Israel. Once Hamas backed by Iran took control of these areas, Israel could expect rockets to be launched whenever Iran felt it necessary into the heart of Tel Aviv where should they manage to destroy a single skyscraper Israel would be counting the dead in the thousands. Whenever such an attack takes place, we can assure you that the EU, UN and much the rest of the world would be demanding that Israel not be disproportional in their response. We discussed the irrationality of not using disproportional military response in this article. We know from experience that whatever the response by Israel to such an attack would be denounced by most of the world with the EU and UN leading the way. This is where Bibi’s arrangements with the EU will become a dire situation where Israel will have little response which the world will not condemn. How can we say this? Well, it has been the response even from those Israel considers to be friends every previous time Israel has found it necessary to respond to aggressive attacks by Arab forces. There is little if any reason to believe it would be otherwise.

 

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace and Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace
and
Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

 

Finally, after the coming September election, the situation will be that Likud will be unable to form a right centered coalition. This will be the result of the attacks which have already begun to come targeting the right-wing coalition of the Unified Right and the New Right with Ayelet Shaked at the top of their list. We will be witness to one Likud person after another denigrating this coalition of parties as not including every party. This is due to three right wing parties who have refused to join the larger coalition. These include Otzma Yehudit, Zehut and Noam, likely the furthest right party, all of which have thus far simply refused any reasonable offer in stead choosing to run independently despite all polls showing their not clearing threshold. The Likud attackers will continue to press the idea that the union which has been formed is not up to the expectations of Likud to consider them a rightful partner in any future government coalition. Why would the Likud be denigrating what many see as their natural allies? Because Bibi knows that these parties would never permit the programs and future which Bibi is hoping to form as his legacy. Yes, we are speaking of Bibi and his legacy building. The past history of Israeli politics has been centered on those who worked hardest to recognize the Arab claims to the lands which make up Israel. The Oslo Accords became the legacy for Simone Perez while the Gaza Withdrawal is the legacy for Ariel Sharon. Bibi Netanyahu has a legacy as being the longest serving Prime Minister, but he desires something far more difficult to be surpassed by a future Prime Minister. Establishing an Arab state, be it along the Green Line or the Security Barrier, would make for a legacy, whether evil or for good we would see, which could not be surpassed by any future Prime Minister. The attacks on the right-wing coalition will continue as should Bibi and the Likud Party succeed in diminishing the votes received by this right-wing coalition as well as destroying any hope that Otzma Yehudit, Zehut and Noam have of clearing threshold and gaining Likud a mere three or maybe four mandates will make forming a right-wing coalition impossible without gaining the support of a leftist party such as Yisroel Beiteinu. This will set up the situation where Bibi will simply claim that forming a right-wing coalition has become impossible, impossible because the Likud continues to attack their own seeking to wring every last vote possible for Likud. Bibi’s actual desire would be to form a coalition where the Likud was the sole party. Lacking such freedom, Bibi will likely form a Unity Government with Blue White. When General Gantz announced the founding of his party, a central part of Blue White, he stated that he had learned much during the Gaza withdrawal and believes he now knows how to better enact such withdrawals and can see areas where similar actions would work to bring about the two-state solution. Never mind that Mahmoud Abbas and the entirety of the PLO and PA leadership do not desire and never have desired making their own state, they simply want only one thing, the destruction of Israel and the removal of the Jews. This has been their desire since day one and it is not about to change. They desire the destruction of Israel after which they will leave the land for Egypt and Jordan to decide who gets which parts while the PLO continues on their path of murdering every Jew who currently resides in Israel. This is the explosive package which Bibi appears to desire to pin his legacy upon, that he was able to make the Arab state from within lands belonging to Israel under international law. The reason for the pressure under which Bibi is about to fold is due to the fact that unless Israel formally surrenders claim to any of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, these lands are legally belonging to Israel and the Arabs residing in the Shomron should be legally relocated within Jordan.

 

One final note about the attempts to form this Arab state. The PLO and PA recently announced that leaving the region will no longer be permitted. Any Arab who attempts to leave the regions controlled by the PLO and PA will be charged with the crime of desertion and prevented from leaving and face jail or potentially execution to make an example of anyone who attempts to seek a better life elsewhere. This was in reaction to rumors that President Trump intends to allow Arab Palestinian to relocate and find a better life in a new location with a monetary bonus to assist their relocation. This is part and parcel of the PLO and PA efforts since the onset of the Oslo Accords, namely to put in place impediments which are meant to make any settlement of the Arab Israeli conflict impossible for as long as any solution permits the continued existence of the Jewish State. When the PLO was formed in September of 1964, it made no claim to Gaza, which was occupied by Egypt, or of the Shomron, occupied by Jordan and renamed West Bank, and only claiming the remainder of the lands between the river and the sea, or simply put, all of Israel. The PLO and PA continue to have this as their aim, the complete replacement of Israel with some Arab rule followed by the eradication of all the Jews residing within. Bibi is about to grant them their first in what they see as the eradication of the Jewish State in stages. Once they have gained the Shomron and East Jerusalem, their next claim will be the Galilee and then the Negev. This would make Israel the Tel Aviv metropolitan area completely surrounded by Arabs ready to use terrorism to drive the Jews from the lands by any means necessary. This is the reality that Israel faces and should Bibi form a unity government with the Blue White Party, then Israelis would be best served in forcing new elections by whatever means are necessary.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 23, 2019

About the Criminal Netanyahu

 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is under investigations that, for all practical arguments, ranges from taking kickbacks to chewing gum in line, from bribery to passing notes in class, from fraud to not bringing enough candy for everyone, and from breach of trust to talking during a test. The first thing which needs explaining is the makeup of the legal officers in Israel and a quick overview of their political bend. The Attorney General is not chosen by the Prime Minister nor approved by the Knesset but is chosen by a set of judges and lawyers who can outvote the political members of the committee which means the people have next to no say in this choice. Judges and much of the legal system other than the Justice Minister are chosen by a liberal elite of the legal profession with a heavy influence by the Supreme Court. Additionally, the Supreme Court has a virtual veto over the choosing of every new Justice to the court leading to a court stuck in the late 1950’s or early 1960’s and not progressing politically along with the population. After Supreme Court Chief Justice Aharon Barak ruled that all things are judicable, the Supreme Court has greatly expanded their purview and fields of power reaching from deciding demolitions of contested regions more often calling for the destruction of Jewish communities while going the extra mile to protect all Palestinian Arab villages to countermanding commander’s and general’s orders to their IDF forces to granting predominantly European funded NGO’s requests which tend to be strictly far left demands.

 

Chief Justice Aharon Barak

Chief Justice Aharon Barak

 

The last Israeli government had instigated some absolutely necessary restrictions, guidelines and strictly defined powers with rigidly implanted divisions between judicable and that which is the responsibility of the courts and justices and that which is outside judicable range. There is much redefining necessary and with any luck a complete revamping of the means by which justices are selected, particularly to the Supreme Court which had become an inner sanctum echoing a long past era refusing to join the present nor would it realize changes which made the landscape defined very differently than the Judges pretend. Allowing, if not encouraging, the roping of the Supreme Court Justices and bringing them closer to having to answer to the desires of the people through taking some decisions from the Supreme Court to altering the means of how new justices are chosen taking from the Supreme Court a veto power against any selection. Finally, there was the means for the Knesset to respond to the court’s overreach by permitting the parliament to override a Supreme Court veto of legislation. This pawned the legal branch of the government to feel threatened and to bite back. They blamed these events on all of the right-wing parties and especially the Prime Minister. The legal difficulties of Prime Minister Netanyahu are part of this reaction by the courts and Attorney General. The Attorney General tasked itself with finding anything by which they could damage or possibly remove the Prime Minister. Some of the charges still remaining unresolved have been placed in a dormant state from previous elections only to be brought to the fore as new elections came into focus. There were two of these charges that came out, the main one being financial misbehavior in the form of kickbacks from a submarine purchase. The finality of this investigation which was initially claimed to involve the Prime Minister only produced charges against lawyers who had lesser roles and vindicated the Prime Minister. The remaining charges are far lesser including one which borders on comical which we have talked of before. They circle around “expensive” gifts received by the Prime Minister and his wife given them by multi-billionaires who when visiting the Prime Minister’s residence for an official dinner. They gave presents such as higher priced champagne and some fine cigars. Apparently, the courts believe that such guests should bring far less expensive gifts such as pictured below. Our friends back in the United States poked much fun about these charges finding them to be more amusing than serious. The media treated this as if they were the proof of bribery despite not being able to find a single quid-pro-quo. Most of this circus will simply be folded up and placed in storage for the next election should Bibi Netanyahu remain as the likely candidate for Prime Minister. The courts and their left-leaning allied parties are frustrated, furious, frantic and willing to do whatever it would take to regain their control which they had for the first thirty plus years of Israeli history. The left believed that they would be the sole power in Israel forever and are surprised, shocked and in a state of unresolved, incensed furor demanding they be returned their rightful place of total control. We can expect this and other contrived problems to resurface repeatedly until the elections are complete and then they will slowly subside.

 

Ronco Veg-O-Matic and Pocket Fisherman

Ronco Veg-O-Matic and Pocket Fisherman

 

Leading up to this last election which just failed to reach a defining coalition, there was a perfect example of this overreach by the Supreme Court. The Knesset election committee had resolved that one Arab Party be disallowed which had numerous former terrorists and recently included a Minister who had joined the Mavi Marmara which attempted to run the military blockade of Hamas in Gaza when numerous IDF sailors were injured with one attempted to be abducted by the crew of the terror ship. The end result was the use of live-fire in which nine of the terrorists were killed and relations with Turkey became tested. Reparations were agreed upon which many on the right found distasteful. The committee also disallowed one candidate from one of the other parties, a Jewish college professor who actively supports the BDS movement detests any Zionist activities within Israel. The Supreme Court ruled that this candidate was just fine and the Arab party completely acceptable but also ruled that one right-wing candidate who is a lawyer and former Knesset Minister be disallowed. It begs the question of how could a former Knesset Minister not be acceptable as a candidate for the Knesset. The answer is simple, he supports restructuring the courts and how jurists are chosen and the Attorney General is appointed. He supports balancing the legislative and administrative branches of government and the Judicial branch. The claim is that by dismantling the forming dictatorial judicial rule of the black robes; the legal branch, especially the Supreme Court and the Attorney General, fear losing their ability to choose their own replacements as this would open the door for justices more in line with the current rightward swing of the population in Israel. This was a fight the legal branch was guaranteed to lose, it was only going to take time as the future of Israel will be more Zionist, more conservative and more religious. Another item is that much of the current judiciary is ardently secular and far more internationalist, border-free, atheistic and intersectional than the population. In all honestly, much of the legal branch is filled with people who are representative of the Israeli population from before 1977 when the first truly Zionist, nationalist, religious right-wing Prime Minister was elected, Prime Minister Menachem Begin. They do not make politicians nor leaders like they used to and Menachem Begin is a prime example.

 

So, is Bibi Netanyahu guilty of any of these charges? This is like asking if President Trump conspired with the Russians or one of the Democrat candidates when looking at much of the Israel media and Bibi with his troubles. He is obviously guilty of receiving some fairly nice cigars and exclusive champagne, but he did not make any moves to repay these gifts, they were gifts and not bribes. Their most presented claim was that the Knesset considered legislation deferential to one of the presenters. That is where the problem with their accusations become obvious as Bibi and his Likud Party assisted in defeating this legislation including Bibi Netanyahu who voted against this legislation. Another claims he traded favorable government actions in order to have a left-leaning media outlet provide him with more favorable coverage. This favorable coverage never materialized and, if anything, this outlet’s coverage became even more critical. If Bibi Netanyahu is actually guilty of these charges, then he is the worst politician at gaining favors or repaying such. These antics are purposed to make the right appear dirty and pave the way for a return to the left-leaning political governance and placing the same people back in power who presented us with the Oslo Accords, Gaza withdrawal (with the assistance of former Likud Prime Minister Arik Sharon) and have completing the two-state solution if only to prove it possible to surrender more of our lands. The September elections and their lead-up is going to be one unbelievable ride through absurdity which is the mainstay of Israeli politics.

 

Whether Bibi Netanyahu is guilty of any of the charges or whether or not the charges actually rise to the level which would remove him from power, the Courts and Attorney General know that any right-leaning government will continue the redefining of the separation of powers in an attempt to rebalance things and put the judicial djinn back into its rightful bottle. The central figure in this dispute is Bibi Netanyahu as the representative of all that is right of center while the Attorney General is fighting for the legal establishment and their left-leaning bend. The weapon is the accusation of criminal activity by the Prime Minister and, as the party lists are made known, attempting to disqualify right-wing candidates while dismissing any disqualifying charges against left-leaning politicians on the left-wing and Arab lists. The legal system is attempting through judicial fiat to enact the two-state solution by any means required. Bibi Netanyahu has been quasi supportive of the most Zionist political parties while often acting towards annexation of the lands west of the Jordan River and beyond the Green Line, the armistice lines from the 1948 Arab war to destroy Israel at her birth. There has already been evidence that at the base of these charges is a political attempt to change the resulting vote of the election. We saw more frequent coverage of the charges against Bibi as the past election neared with the reporting becoming more fantastic and even fanatical. Now that those elections have ended, the coverage and level of excitement around these charges have been reduced to a simmer. With new elections coming in mid-September, we can expect the temperature on these charges to be increased from a mere simmer to a roiling boil over the month of August and into September as Election Day approaches. After the elections, the charges will largely be placed back into storage for the next elections when they will be investigated almost anew and perhaps some new charges of equal veracity will be leveled. This has been the past and is promised to be the future of politics for as long as the judicial branch is politically opposed to the remainder of the Israeli governance.

 

Whether or not Bibi Netanyahu is a criminal, a dirty politician, needs removal or is as pure as the driven snow is something we are not in a place to determine. We doubt he is as pure as the driven snow but also doubt he is as guilty as the media have painted him. In all honesty, we are not Bibi’s greatest of fans and would be extremely happy to have another become Prime Minister, whether a different member from Likud or the leader of another party. We would prefer that the right-leaning parties continue to hold the majority and form the next government. We have noted that Avigdor Lieberman has made his position as left-leaning or possibly solidly leftist which is the reason so many claim they desire forming a government which does not include Yisrael Beiteinu Party. This became evident when Avigdor Lieberman strongly suggested that the next government include the Blue-White Party, Yisrael Beiteinu and Likud along with other parties in a unity government. The problem with his claim is such would not be a unity government but a left-leaning government where the Likud would find themselves very uncomfortable but possibly unable to force new elections, trapping them in a government which refutes their own preferences and interests. But Bibi is more likely a politician under investigation by the opposing side than anywhere near a deadly criminal that the political cartoons paint him to be. But, like President Trump, Bibi should not expect the hyperventilating and total exasperation centered reporting to change that much going into the elections.

 

The voting public is also not taken in largely by these accusations, though some have fallen victim. The problem comes when a new party defines themselves tailored to the public’s slant while their true positions are far different than the image portrayed. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak may prove their undoing as they have requested that Yair Lapid keep from commenting about his concerns and opposition to the Haredi parties. The Blue-White Party is a combination of Benny Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party and centrist leader Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party. The Israel Resilience Party hosts four former generals including some who were Chiefs of Staff. Their claim to fame is that as Generals they know far more about security and how to reach peace agreements with the Palestinian Authority. From what we have read and gathered; their plan is another version of the ill-fated two-state solution. One of their leaders, before being corralled by handlers, spoke freely very early in the lead-up to the last elections. The proposal he made was frightening to those of us here at BTC and which we discussed here. To put it as simply as we are able, for those who refuse to read prior articles, the plan would present the Palestinian Authority with a done deal. They would pull all Israelis within the region defined by the security fence while gifting the Palestinian Authority the lands east of the security fence. This would not demand anything from the Palestinian Authority as just by gifting them these lands, they claim all terrorism and violence will cease. The difference between the defensive security fence and the Green Line is marginal at best (as displayed on the map at the above link). These generals are still fully supporting the land for peace concept of the Oslo Accords and the two-state solution. We can guarantee that Mahmoud Abbas would refuse to accept this offer and would immediately set out for Europe complaining that Israel still refused to give him the 22% of the Mandate he has demanded. For information, the 22% Abbas refers to is all of the British Mandate which was not part of the 78% granted to Jordan, or simply, everything west of the Jordan River, all of Israel. Abbas would also initiate a new intifada with the intent of forcing Israel to send the IDF into the region just gifted to the Palestinian Authority to end the offensive which would be murdering Israelis. Abbas has effectively and completely destroyed, devastated and made null the two-state solution, the Oslo Accords and possibly any opportunity for peace between the Palestinian Arab entity and Israel. Their current attempts to appear as more right-wing than they truly are revealing their claims to be disingenuous should Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak talk to the media and decide he desires joining his fellow generals in the Blue-White Party revealing their leftward tilt.

 

This is also why Mahmoud Abbas will not be in Bahrain for President Trump’s economic conference as he denounced the entirety of President Trump and his peace plan before anything was released. Mahmoud Abbas and his fellow Palestinian Authority leaders have made their desires extremely evident and it has nothing to do with the two-state solution. They have the exact same desires as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, just a slightly different means of attaining an end to Israel and any nation ruled by Jews, their way to having Islamic world domination. They do not wish for self-rule or even their own country, they simply want to destroy our country. This is why there can be no peace agreement which would be worth the paper it is written upon. Abbas has stated that should any peace ever be reached with Israel; it would only bring a temporary respite from terrorism which would restart and continue demanding more territory followed by another respite followed be restart of terror until they could easily defeat Israel or the Jews simply leave, deserting their country. This is the only result Abbas and his colleagues will find acceptable. Perhaps President Trump is more aware than the media paints him and he is planning on forming a peace which leaves Abbas and the Palestinian Authority out in the cold. Things may be about to get very interesting, the Trump peace plan, the Israeli elections and the leftist media in conniptions.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 18, 2019

Election Roller-Coaster Taking Abrupt Turns

 

There have been a few spins and fast turns of late. Some revealed opportunism while others clarified the politics of others. Some were potentially expected and known while others leave one scratching their head as two leaders of one party appear to be heading for different goals. There are some facing an upwards climb in order to remain at the top while others see them simply dancing on in and taking whatever position they desire making any demand they wish. Some of the above may be hyperbole, but it has been a fun and interesting ride this past week leaving much to ponder. Where it will all fall out is anybody’s guess. Likud still expects to form the next coalition and the United Right plans on retaining what they fought over so desperately to put together. Blue White Party is working on damage control on two fronts. First, they are seeking to tone down the anti-Haredi messages and are requesting that Yair Lapid not be so out front and take a quiet seat allowing the all-knowing generals to lead. This is their, as one writer put it, “Rolling out the Generals.” This was a left-wing tactic which has been used before with the most memorable being Ehud Barak, who as having been a general would know every right move. Well, that one did not pan out as prescribed in the campaign and he was soon voted out of politics, then in, then out again and so on. One person not toning down the we give the Haredi too much so it is time for them to serve in greater number in the IDF is Avigdor Lieberman, who has created his own loop-de-loop, more on this later.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

Let’s start with Likud, the party expecting to put Bibi Netanyahu back in as Prime Minister. The reality is that they are very likely correct in their supposition unless the unexpected should befall us. Please do not take this as supporting Bibi Netanyahu. What must be granted is that Bibi Netanyahu has fulfilled the expectations that he invented himself. He has made the Likud believe that only he as their leader can lead Israel safely. This has allowed the Likud Party to remain as the mainstay of right-wing political expectations and prevented any mass exodus supporting anyone else. Bibi Netanyahu has also seen to the fact that nobody within the party is permitted to challenge his position. Those who do are often politically decimated or given a position which removes them from contention but also is such that one would be insane to refuse the appointment. This has led to Bibi Netanyahu leading his party for an unprecedented amount of time and as his party is the most prominent on the right, he will be the longest serving Prime Minister in Israeli history and will remain as such for the foreseeable future as his accomplishments politically are unprecedented in a democracy. Netanyahu will remain as the Israeli Prime Minister into the future until he, or Sarah Netanyahu, decide that it is time for him to retire and probably seek the position as President, something he is very likely to be given.

 

Meanwhile, there has been a call for a unity government with Likud Joining the Blue White Party along with the rest of the left-wing parties including Yisroel Beiteinu, where we are to expect their leader, Avigdor Lieberman, to be given the Ministry of Defense. This call was made by Avigdor Lieberman who was responsible partially, if not largely responsible, for the collapse of the last Knesset coalition. Lieberman has been suspected of socialist leanings and only joining right-wing coalitions simply to receive those guarantees of positions and monetary support for the Russian immigrants he represents. He is doing exactly that which party members expect, he is supporting the interests of his members. His problem is that his constituents are slowly decreasing as a percentage of the voting population. Avigdor Lieberman knows that any renowned achievements he might still be able to make have to come sooner rather than later as he might not have a later politically. One thing we know is that he desperately wants to be given the Ministry of Defense as from there he believes he can force Haredi into serving in the IDF. What is not being noticed by the media and others when covering Lieberman and this issue is that the Haredi are entering the IDF and National Service in record numbers without anybody pressing the issue. Reality is that the more the Haredim are pressured, the stiffer and more widespread their resistance becomes. Simply leave things to progress naturally and there will be little difference between the Haredi and the rest of the population when it comes to IDF and National Service entrants. People are very much a liquid of some unknown sort which will naturally flow more easily than being pushed which is immediately pressed back against and resisted. The Haredim entering the rest of society when it comes to working, IDF service and National Service volunteering, will probably be more easily attained the less aggressively it is pressed upon them. Sometimes, simply leaving it all up to Hashem and the problems often cure themselves. If only the entire world would take that very same approach.

 

Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett

Ayelet Shaked and Naftali Bennett

 

Now allow us to discuss the variations for the future of the New Right Party. This was the effort by Naftali Bennett for him to establish a secular and accepting of religious Zionist party. His efforts appeared to many to be as if he was forming a party which would be Likud Lite, the slender and more flexible Likud which would annex most of the major settlement communities in the Shomron. They formed this party by taking the top two people and another of the Ministers from the Jewish Home Party leaving their former party lurching as it sought new leadership. The New Right rocketed immediately to twelve to as much as fourteen mandates in polling. We warned people that this was not going to last and their future would be better invested in remaining with Jewish Home. We were almost universally ignored. Well, Jewish Home anchored a three-party coalition and cleared threshold comfortably while the New Right floundered and failed to reach threshold by the slimmest of margins. Now at one extreme we have Ayelet Shaked, or at least people claiming to represent her, making moves to bring the New Right into the United Right providing that they replace Rafi Peretz at the top of the ticket with Ayelet Shaked. This has not sat well with Rafi Peretz who after being wrestled from retirement with little desire if any to enter politics into leading Jewish Home and their rebuilding after Bennett and Shaked bolted to form their own party. Now that he has taken over this responsibility, the retired General, former Chief Rabbi of the IDF and combat helicopter pilot, he is not the type to leave a job half finished. Rafi Peretz has stated that he intends to remain as the head of the United Right. But wait, there’s more.

 

At the same time there have been reports that Naftali Bennett has been trying to attract Moshe Feiglin to form a coalition of his Zehut Party with the New Right as the almost two mandates which Zehut received would easily put the New Right over the threshold to enter the Knesset. This begs the question as to how one party will be capable of making deals with two separate parties. Perhaps there is some trouble brewing in the New Right leadership. They have apparently forgotten rule one of a partnership, communication. Then there is the other possibility; they may have decided to attempt separate paths taking whichever one proves to show the most promise. In the interests of Zehut, the offer by the New Right would guarantee Moshe Feiglin making his way into the Knesset without having to compromise on any positions as they would go their separate way after the election. This might not work as well for Moshe Feiglin should there be a greater coalition of the United Right including both the New Right and Zehut which might gain the United Right an additional five or possibly as many as seven additional mandates and allow for Likud and the United Right along with the Haredi Parties, potentially they might be able to choose only one of the Haredi Parties forming a coalition without any need for Avigdor Lieberman. This possibility of a right-wing and Haredi coalition without Yisroel Beiteinu being required to clear the sixty-one mandates to form a coalition. This would be the intrigue of the pre-election machinations except for the one known, the real suspense is what ploy will Bibi Netanyahu use in the closing days to agitate and awaken his base and the other question is at whom will Bibi target with his coming emergency, all hands on deck call which we are expecting. Bibi would not let us down, would he?

 

The Labor Party is also running around with much of a frenzied emergency. One of the most successful parties in Israel history and the sole leaders of Israel politics are now facing with the distinct possibility of not clearing threshold for the first time. They are looking both to the right and the Blue White Party and to the left to Meretz Party to find anybody to throw them a life-preserver and help pull them across threshold and back from oblivion. This is one of the major results of the Israel public moving to the right as well as becoming more Zionist and religious. Labor, a secular left-wing party has been left behind. Add in the Blue White Party and the excitement they cause with their four generals and their claim that as generals they are far more suited to lead the nation than Bibi as he never reached such high rank and thus must not be as prepared to face the security threats facing Israel. We predict that Blue White might not be favorable to any approach from Labor Party as it would not provide sufficient number of votes to make the surrender of two or possibly three seats on their party list. Labor and Meretz merging would be a more natural fit and could potentially lead to a permanent merger forming a somewhat stronger far left party. They would bridge the entirety of the left between the Arab lists and the Communist party to the Blue White Party. A Labor Meretz merger would garner them likely two additional seats in the Knesset and is the only means for Labor to guarantee to get anybody into the next government. This has a potential to change in favor for the Labor Party as they are choosing new leadership and with change there is always the possibility of the unexpected.

 

Lastly, one last means of solving the apparent confusion between the two leaders of the New Right, Naftali Bennett who is wooing Zehut and Ayelet Shaked who is making approaches to the United Right and still make Rafi Peretz happy as well. First thing is to set the record straight that Rafi Peretz is and will remain at the top of the United Right with Bezalel Smotrich occupying the second position. Then simply dangle having Ayelet Shaked reappointed to the Justice Ministership as part of their criteria for joining the coalition. This would make many within the parties of the United Right somewhat more motivated, Ayelet Shaked would be receiving something she covets far more than a top slot on the ticket and possibly not becoming Justice Minister to finish her work there and Naftali Bennet could continue to take the remainder of the New Right, those who would not follow Ayelet Shaked, and he could join with Zehut. Making any offer to either Ayelet Shaked or Naftali Bennett after their disgraceful bolting from Jewish Home and almost destroying the party has to be seen as generosity seldom found in politics. The only reason we advise that this is a decent idea is due to the work Shaked has already performed at this post and it would be of benefit to Israel for her to complete her vision. Any further tweaks could be made along the road. The only other item is we bet that this election Bibi Netanyahu emergency get out the vote last minute revelation will target Avigdor Lieberman and might be sufficient to prevent his party from clearing threshold, and providing Bibi with what he believes is justifiable revenge.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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