Beyond the Cusp

September 24, 2019

Reflections on the Latest Israeli Elections

 

Israel went to the polls again on September 17, and voted a near identical result to the April elections leading to a better than average chance that no government will be able to be formed. So many of the reviews we have come across have interpreted this completely wrong. Most are claiming that the Israeli democracy is illogical and defective. Nothing could be further from the truth. Those who got it correct realized that the problem is that the population is relatively evenly divided. We already covered here the real reason why forming a coalition is so difficult, explaining that because of one group of parties which are outliers backing neither major party forces, any government needs to realize well over the fifty percent plus one usually required in any normative election in a parliamentary government. This is not a detractor of the Israeli parliamentary democracy and the vibrancy of our democracy. The elections were simply a realistic representation of a country divided almost evenly in their view of what the future of Israel should steer towards.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

We agree that part of the problem is fatigue over Bibi Netanyahu leading to some simply supporting anybody who appears to have a better than even chance of replacing him. But the claims that the divide is between right-wing and left-wing is not a completely honest means of defining what is occurring. The first thing which needs to be addressed is what exactly is meant by right-wing and left-wing in Israeli politics. Yes, part of it is over economic outlooks and the separation between preferences for Capitalism against Socialism, but this is actually far from the central dividing issue. The real divides come from two separate but interdependent divides in the Israeli populace. The main divide is between religious and secular with the other main divide being nationalists and Zionists who are opposed by internationalists and those still holding onto the idea of a Palestinian Arab state and the two-state-solution. Then we have the political allies often referred to as the Joint Arab List which also includes Communists, Arab nationalists, secularism, Pan-Arabism, Eco-socialists, Islamists and other traditional left-wing causes. The mandates garnered by this list traditionally have not supported any candidate for Prime Minister or named one of the leaders from the group of parties making up this faction. This, more than anything else, is the exact reason that there has been no definitive result. This is also one of the most obvious reasons that the Israeli democracy is functioning in a representative fashion and is providing the exact result that represents her people, a deeply divided people.

 

There is the possibility that the Blue White Party and Likud could form a unity government completely free of requiring the support of any other party. This is the main reason why Avigdor Lieberman’s claim that he would join a unity government and be commanding one of the principle centers of power. He has claimed that without him there could not be a unity government. Apparently Avigdor Lieberman is incapable of doing simple mathematics such as adding together thirty-three and thirty-one and realizing that is more than sixty-one. Since those are the results for Blue-White and Likud, it should be obvious that those two together could form a government. So, what is the hang up preventing such, is it political, personal or simply ego?

 

Part of the reason is political as should Bibi actually agree to such an arrangement, the Likud Party would bleed voters in significant numbers to vote for parties which are either more religious, nationalist or Zionist than the Likud such as the parties which made up Yamina; Jewish Home, National Union–Tkuma and New Right. Such a change could prove to be seismic should Bibi ally with Gantz. This would represent a similar situation as when Ariel Sharon bolted Likud forming Kadima in order to allow him to agree to President Bush’s and Condoleezza Rice’s plan for the Gaza withdrawal. This caused a split in the Likud Party which Bibi has been able to reverse over the last two elections. Furthermore, Blue White leader, ‎Benny Gantz‎, has already declared that he would only agree to a unity government only if he was made Prime Minister as his party received the most mandates. This would be ignoring that the so-called right-wing parties received more mandates than the left-wing parties. Further, there is no way Bibi will join any coalition which he does not lead. Once more, egos are getting in the way of any feasible solution.

 

President Rivlin, who has the undesirable task of deciding who will be given the first opportunity to form a coalition, has intimated that he would fall just short of knocking heads together to force a government being formed and avoiding yet a third election in under one year. He is facing the problem that the right-wing parties are unable to form a government without Lieberman and his Yisrael Beiteinu Party. The problem is if Bibi were to agree to Lieberman’s demands, he would lose the Haredi Parties and still be unable to form a coalition. Were Gantz given the nod, the only way he could form a coalition would be if the Joint Arab List were to agree to sit in with him. The problem is that Avigdor Lieberman has expressly stated he would not sit in a coalition with the Arab parties which would again prevent a coalition. Were Lieberman to change his mind and agree to sit in a government with the Arab parties, his Yisrael Beiteinu Party would splinter as it has a large number of nationalists who would not take well to joining a government with the Arab parties included. This would lead to either the end of Yisrael Beiteinu or their replacing Avigdor Lieberman as their leader. Either choice would be political suicide for Lieberman who is too crafty a politician to make such a blunder. So, without hammering Bibi and Benny into submission, it appears that there is not much that President Rivlin can do to force a government.

 

So, the vibrant Israeli democracy will very probably be heading for new elections once again. This will again be a reason to claim that the Israeli democracy has failed and could be considered dead. The reality is that the Israeli democracy is working exactly as it should and is representing the fractured Israeli populace quite accurately. Just because a ruling coalition appears to be escaping reality and becoming near an impossibility is no reason to claim that the democracy has failed, perhaps it is just very accurate in representing and displaying the point at which we find Israel today. If anything is broken, it is not our democracy or any of the other claims which you may have read elsewhere. What is actually broken are the complaints that democracy has failed Israel. Perhaps it is simply jealousy over the fact that the Israelis are being served well by their democracy as it represents the splits between the numerous factions which make up the various parties. One last note, nobody we have had conversations with has complained that their lives are being impacted by not having an actual government and are instead being ruled by a Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, and a number of Likud Ministers who are in the cabinet plus Rafi Peretz from Jewish Home as Education Minister and Bezalel Smotrich from National Union–Tkuma as Transportation Minister, who are making any choices and will protect Israel should she be attacked. It may even be this combination making the decisions over any response to an attack upon Israel which will prevent such an eventuality from coming to fruition. Maybe not having a ruling coalition and a normal government by the world’s standards will prove to be the best thing which could happen to Israel in these turbulent times.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

September 16, 2019

Election Day is Almost Here

 

Well, we are going to try and elect a government one more time tomorrow. We attempted to do so back in April but that became a bad joke as nobody could reach the magic number of sixty-one mandates. There is a better than even chance that we will simply have a repeat performance by an evenly divided country. Now, we know the question on so many minds, how can there be an election without one side reaching a majority. The answer is easy to understand once one realizes that a large segment of the populace refuses to join with either the left or right, the Arab sector parties. When Ra’amBalad and HadashTa’al, both a combination of far-left party and an Arab party plus another Arab party with a Communist party, take on average around ten to a twelve mandates, this means the major parties need to gather sixty-one or more mandates out of merely one-hundred-eight to one-hundred-ten available mandates. This means that instead of being required to form a government with fifty-percent of the vote plus one mandate, to form a government they require between fifty-five-percent to fifty-seven-percent plus one to form a government, a far more difficult task. These outlier parties have as part of their platforms anti-Zionism, support for two-state-solution, socialism/communism and a general disregard, if not outright hatred, of the right and simple disdain for the left and support for Israeli Arabs plus the Arabs of the Palestinian Authority and those in Gaza. Israelis will await the results as it is unsure which side, right-wing or left-wing, will be able of forming a coalition. So, what should the world expect come Wednesday morning and the results are finalized?

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

We can all expect another close election with the balance being determined by which side gets their supporters to the polls to vote. Initial indications from those permitted to take advantage of early voting have presented a disturbing realization, they are voting at a rate measurably below their percentage in April. Should this hold valid for the turnout for the elections tomorrow, it means that whichever side loses the least in turnout will likely come out as the leader. But just because one side receives a larger percentage of the vote does not mean that they will realize sufficient support to form a government. Things have gotten to the point of absurd as Bibi Netanyahu came out making a similar announcement so as not to be outdone by the Blue White Party, where Ganz stated he would accept Arab parties in his coalition if needed to form a government and that negotiations were proceeding in that direction; Bibi stated he would not refuse to work with Arab Ministers who might join his coalition. The reality is almost every Arab Minister from the Arab parties would never join a Bibi led coalition, but Ganz could be a wholly different and definitive possibility. Even should either side make a coalition with Arab Party Ministers, such a coalition would be excessively shaky and unlikely to be sufficiently stable to survive even one year.

 

So, what has accurately changed since April? One thing is that Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, has entered into a vote sharing where should one part be close to attaining an additional seat, the other party can gift them any votes which would not cost their party a position. This is performed in order to attempt and provide one of the parties, and thus their combined number of mandates, an additional position. Lieberman had been seen as potentially leading his party along with the rest of the right-wing parties and this places Yisrael Beiteinu definitely allied with the left-wing and has removed any doubt as to their current loyalty. This is a definite change from history and was suspected when Lieberman refused to join any government led by Netanyahu, thus moving to the left of center. This could result in their receiving fewer votes and thus mandates with some of their more conservative members leaving and joining Likud or possibly even Yamina combined right party. This will be another of the variables which will be beyond the polls and prognosticators ability to accurately predict. Then there is the other difficulty which drives and makes Israeli elections different and more variable than other parliamentary governments, the fact that there are numerous, what are best described as, personality parties where they are centered around a person whose positions are often either narrow or even contradictory such as being largely a right-wing party as well as marijuana legalization, which often fail to reach the threshold in order to receive ministers in the government and thus their votes go wasted. This often leads to what becomes lost positions and mandates for either side depending on how many of such parties or alliances of such parties fail to make it into the government. On the other hand, should the majority of such parties on either side actually make it into the government, then that side will have a stronger position in forming a government.

 

So, what have the polls been claiming? Here we must be honest; we have tended to disregard Israeli polling as it is often well off the mark. If President Trump is to be believed, then Prime Minister Netanyahu will waltz to victory with ease, another thing we doubt as nothing in Israeli politics is easy. What people have mentioned in conversations about the elections is that there are polls claiming the right will form the next government and claiming the left will form the next government. There you have it, polls made to order, and that is the unfortunate reality about Israeli polling. Israel has the same dividing political criteria as in the United States. The big cities, starting with Tel Aviv, vote largely for the left-wing while the religious, Zionist and smaller cities tend to vote more right-wing. Similarly to the United States, the population is relatively evenly split with one exception, right-wing voters in Israel are often the ones more determined to make it out and vote. This may prove to be the defining difference when the dust settles and Israel will once more set out to form a government. The bigger question is which person, Bibi or Ganz and company, does the Israeli populace trust to lead the country sustaining the economy and keeping the nation safer. This is where the left very well could hit their largest problem, they are too defined by the memory of the Oslo Accords and the well over a thousand Israelis murdered in the following flood of terrorist attacks. Netanyahu has allowed for terrorism to be greatly decreased with the terror wall, technological miracles such as Iron Dome, and other mitigating factors. Netanyahu has also had the advantage of a strong economic picture. But he does have one looming fault which he has attempted to cajole and coax a picture of his turning over a new leaf and suddenly has reached a point where he claims he will extend Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, all of the Israeli towns beyond the Green Line and numerous other offerings to the Zionists and stronger right-wing voters. Part of this rhetoric has been his weapon attempting to drive voters from the further right Yamina into the fold of Likud. Netanyahu has gone what some may see as overboard with claims that Yamina will not pass threshold and thus voting for them is wasting your vote and only the Likud is the safe vote. This has been the main difficulty with Bibi as he desires having a coalition made up of Likud without any other parties. By attempting to reach such, he often attacks the other right-wing parties which in the end makes forming a right-wing government that much more difficult as he could cost some of the smaller parties to fail to reach threshold thanks to his attacks. His attack on Yamina would be completely unfounded as it is a coalition of parties which Bibi pushed and pressured Jewish Home, National Union and The New Right to combine so they would easily pass threshold and now he is attacking them for not being able to make threshold. Netanyahu has also been seen to be attacking largely Zionist parties such as Yamina which makes his promises for extending sovereignty all the less believable. Only a strong showing by Yamina would be capable of holding Netanyahu to his word while others would allow him to forget these promises seeing them simply as politicking for these elections.

 

Then there is always the question as to who other than Bibi can lead Israel from the right. That is a question which will have to be seen after the era of Netanyahu as the Likud is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla in the room. But this will change over time and within the next thirty years, and conceivably less, the leading party will likely be a coalition of religious-Zionist parties which will have taken control of Israeli politics. This prediction is based on simple mathematics. The religious sector in Israel, as in the United States and Europe, are reproducing at a far higher rate than the left-leaning populace. This population will be split between the Haredi Parties and the religious-Zionist parties and somewhat less for Likud. There will be, for some time, the ability for Likud to continue to lead as long as they can find some means of retaining the support of the Haredi Parties. Eventually, their allegiance will be swayed to support of the religious-Zionist groupings as they take the lead ahead of the Likud. But all of this will take a few decades and, in the meantime, Israel is a very divided nation with a fine enough balance that we might not form a government with these elections either making new elections in another three months necessary.

 

So, what happens if we have another election which does not produce a government? Well, as we have mentioned to friends and observed, Israel is doing just fine without any functioning elected government and the main difference is there is less news. We have always felt that less news is good and no news is great despite it making blogging more difficult. Eventually Israeli populous will figure out what is what and a government will be voted into power and then we will have more news than we probably desire. We have often found the old Ronald Reagan quote of, “Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.” Perhaps this is partly why we have no problem having Israel continue without a government. Further, as long as we do not have a government, we will not have Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” something we have had a great deal of trepidation concerning what it may present. We are aware that the State Department likely had a fair amount of influence, and that is one area of the United States government which has proven to be very much anti-Israel and definitively anti-Zionist. Their influence is the central figure in our consternation. Perhaps Israel being unable to form a government is Hashem’s way of protecting her from potential disasters where Israel is once again forced to make concessions without a single guarantee that such concessions will bring us any peace. The greatest three concessions Israel has made have been some of the most destructive and now constitute the greatest threats to Israel’s future. The first was the Oslo Accords which brought us the two-state-solution paradigm which promises to produce even more terror wars were it ever to be fulfilled, the pulling of the IDF out of Lebanon without any promise for safety on the northern border leading to Hezballah on the northern border representing the Iranian desires and whims and finally the Gaza withdrawal which produced Hamas and Islamic Jihad who both are also enforcers of the will of Iran. We have our doubts that Israel could survive too many more peace plans as each brings us a new disaster and the renewed threat of devastating wars in the future. The only secure resolution of the Arab threats to Israel is the world finally actually fulfilling the promises we were given and are still the only solution which meets with International Laws, treaties, conferences, Mandates and all enforceable by the United Nations. We are not fools and realize that much of the world desires an end to the state of Israel even if it costs, or especially if it costs, the lives of seven-million Jews. Perhaps the reality is Israel is safest and best off as long as she does not have a government upon which such future demands would be pressed. Yes, perhaps no government is the best government, something Thomas Jefferson would have understood and likely supported.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 1, 2019

Election Update, Can Bibi be Stopped?

 

We are not foolish enough or so blind as to believe that Bibi will not be forming the next government. This is almost an inevitability. But what can be prevented is his forming a “Unity Government” with Blue White while leaving the New Right-United Right coalition he all but forged himself out in the cold. It is entirely possible, probable even, that between Likud and Blue White parties they will have over sixty mandates likely achieving as high as sixty-seven mandates between the two parties. Such an outcome precludes any other parties being required to form a government. We understand that everyone who proposed such an outcome thus far have had their prediction ridiculed and their acumen questioned. We would rather simply explain our reasoning and allow it to stand or be crushed by the eventual events surrounding the coming September elections.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

First, we will admit we feared this when Bibi was unable to cobble together a right-leaning coalition after the elections just passed and failed in forming a coalition. We even see the European Union (EU) having a small hand in these coming disasters. They are the reason that Bibi needs a coalition which he has sufficient control such that it cannot crumble as the plans move ahead. Bibi is facing the Sharon moment when his entire reputation into the future will be affected. Ariel Sharon faced a similar threat to his plan but managed to form a new coalition under a new party without holding elections. He took a fair number of Likud members as the core to his new Kadima Party and formed a unity government around them using the Labor Party as the main partner. This led to the Gaza Withdrawal. One particular factoid which bears remembering is that until immediately before the Gaza Withdrawal was executed, Bibi Netanyahu remained allied with Ariel Sharon only pulling his support when it became obvious that Bibi would have lost his credibility within Likud, something which would have made his run as Prime Minister impossible. Bibi pulling away from Sharon was something necessary for its political expediency and to hold together the power base which Bibi had formed and who would be his springboard back into the Prime Minister position. But Bibi also was impressed by the media attention and the praises lavished upon Ariel Sharon simply for his having permitted Israeli policies to be dictated by the United States, specifically the State Department, and the approving light shined on the Gaza Withdrawal by the EU and its member states.

 

We have always suspected that Bibi Netanyahu plays to two audiences, the core Likudnics who keep him at the fore of his party and the European leaders from their respective capitals and the EU as the voice of Europe. These are also the main controlling forces behind much of the world media, or the result of what the media praises and condemns. Bibi is not solely to blame for far too many of the positions and decisions he makes as we fear that Sarah, his wife, has far too much sway and influence over his actions and even sometimes what he is permitted to think. This may have been the source rumors after the last elections that Bibi had signed an agreement with the EU allowing them to build anywhere in Area C from the Oslo Accords which had designated Areas A and B for the Palestinians to build and Area C was to be reserved for Israel. Of course it did not take the EU and numerous European nations along with the United States State Department, from now on this grouping shall be referred to as “the Beasts,” from decrying that the entirety of the disputed territory was supposed to be given to the Arabs and Israel should just be glad they were permitted to win the Six Day War and Yom Kippur War. Any other nation on planet Earth who had been attacked by around half a dozen neighboring countries would be granted the right to annex whatever lands were considered necessary to provide more secure and defensible borders. The aggrieved nation would also have the right to force the inhabitants of any lands they deemed necessary for their achieving good and decent borders to relocate into the nation from which said lands were acquired without any remuneration. These were the rules by which the entirety of the map of Europe was drawn, actually redrawn, after World War I when the Austria-Hungarian Empire and German Empire were broken up by the victorious allies (see maps below). This redrawing of the map even went so far as to create several nations such as Poland, Czechoslovakia and Yugoslavia. These nations were formed under the auspices that indigenous peoples required their own nation, the exact reason why at the same time as Europe was redrawn, so was the Ottoman Empire and Israel was to be established as the homeland of the Jewish People. The British Mandate declared that the borders of the state of Israel were the Negev border with the Sinai Peninsula, the Blue Line with Lebanon, the Golan Heights with Syria and the Jordan River with Transjordan (later renamed Jordan). What is most definitely notable by its absence is the imaginary nation of Palestine where Palestinian Arabs presumably are the indigenous peoples.

 

German Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire Before WWI and After WWI

German Empire and Austro-Hungarian Empire Before WWI and After WWI

 

Even the wars Israel was forced to fight simply to be born in 1948, again in 1967 and once more in 1973, after this loss the new tactic of terrorism and destroying Israel in stages became the order of the day. So, let us list the combatants in each of the wars Israel has survived and it just may be educational for us. The war of 1948 has euphemistically called the Israeli War of Independence simply because the war was launched mere hours after Israel was formed and had declared their independence from the British Mandate and British rule. A more accurate description of the war was given by Azzam Pasha, Secretary-General of the Arab League at that time, who stated, “It will be a war of annihilation. It will be a momentous massacre in history that will be talked about like the massacres of the Mongols or the Crusades.” The proper name for the 1948 war is it was a War of Annihilation where the Jews would be wiped from the map of the Middle East and the world. Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen who were further aided by irregulars such as the Holy War Army, Arab Liberation Army and other militias plus what were called foreign volunteers consisting of the Muslim Brotherhood, Pakistan and the Sudan. Then in 1967 came the Six Day War, so named because it took six days. The combatants on the Arab side were Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon along with aid from numerous other Arab nations and several militias. The war in 1973 was launched in a surprise attack by the Arab forces on the Jewish holiday of Yom Kippur when virtually everybody was either in Synagogue or at the beach if they were less religious. For the history challenged, this was before cellphones and the IDF commanders sent trucks with loudspeakers atop announcing the universal call up as Israel was at war. IDF soldiers were seen running through the streets to their homes to grab their military gear and then they met up and formed impromptu units with whomever they had and set off to turn back the invading Arab armies. These included Egypt and Syria with expeditionary forces, a nice way of saying they did not send everybody, from Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco and Cuba with the entire effort supported and armed by the USSR. This was the time when the Russian leader Leonid Brezhnev called Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir demanding that Israel cease fighting their poor innocent Arab allies by noon Thursday or face the wrath of the Soviet Union. The call was made on Tuesday and Golda Meir simply replied to Leonid Brezhnev asking, “Why wait?” or so it was reported. The Soviet Union did not join the war. But reviewing the names of those who fought against Israel and one notices the absence of anything remotely Palestine related. The claim that Israel was founded over top of what was Palestine hold no validity either as before the lands became Israel, they were a part of the British Mandate and before that the Ottoman Empire. There has never been a nation called Palestine in all of history. But the world is dead set on inventing it and working with the Arabs to replace Israel with Palestine.

 

This is the reason that the EU pressed Israel to provide them permission to build in Area C where their intent is to place Palestinian towns such that all the Jewish communities are completely cut off from Israel and can be suffocated when the next round of violence starts. The EU has already been building a number of these communities without permits or any arrangements for making them habitable. They do serve well as a propaganda and political message as the Arabs will place themselves in these towns and guides bring EU officials, heads of state and UN officials through these communities pointing out their dearth of utilities or anything which might make them habitable. Since these communities have thus far been simply thrown up anywhere the EU can find open areas, preferable at hill tops or other critical places all without permits or making arrangements, these communities lack roads, electricity, gas, water, sewage or any other niceties. They even lack cable television. When the tours are given, the lack of utilities is blamed on Israel and these officials gobble that up without checking the validity, after all, the Jews are denying these poor people utilities, why look up the facts when it is so obvious to these anti-Semites. But this is apparently about to change, and why, because the EU and the UN and far too many leaders around the world to even try to list have all claimed that all of the disputed area must not be returned to Israel. But now the EU desires having these communities and all future EU constructions to be provided with utilities, roads and everything to make them habitable and thus new facts on the ground supporting the claims by leftists and anti-Israeli, anti-Zionist and anti-Semites that none of the disputed territories have any relation which could imply Israeli ownership of these lands. These are all parts of the efforts which began almost immediately after the San Remo Conference set the lands between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River as set aside for the Jewish State. Even Egypt and Jordan recognized that they had held Gaza and the Shomron (West Bank) actually belong to Israel as they relented all claims to these areas which they had illegally occupied from 1949 until Israel liberated them in the 1967 Six Day War. The only remaining action under international law which remained to be executed was the relocating of the peoples back into the redrawn borders placing them under their proper national control. But why allow a little thing such as international law be applied to Israel which, according to so many in this world of ours, has no right to exist on any land no matter how small an area. The main country which has made any moves towards recognition of the Israeli right to these lands has been the United States and largely due to the support given Israel by Congress since the early 1970’s when United States aid and allying with Israel initially began.

 

For those who believe that the United States has always had Israel’s back, here are a few facts which belie such thoughts. Yes, the United States voted for the UN patrician plan which would have taken the lands west of the Jordan river and divided it between Israel and a new Arab state (see map below). They then proceeded to place an arms embargo on the entire Middle East which allowed the Soviet Union to back their Arab allies and left Israel basically alone. Israel was originally provided aircraft by France who sold Israel some Mirage jets. The United States took an interest in Israel after the Six Day War as Israel appeared to be worthy of American support against the Soviet backed Arab states. It was when Israel was about to put the Lavi fighter, an indigenous production by Israeli industries, that the United States had second thoughts. The Lavi would have been in direct competition with the F-16 on the international arms market that caused the United States to propose a deal with Israel if she would stop their production of the Lavi even before they had started to produce this indigenous fighter jet. America offered F-16’s plus F-15’s and they promised that Israel would always have air superiority supported by the United States. This promise has recently fallen by the wayside as the United States is providing Saudi Arabia and Egypt with F-35 JSF’s, the same aircraft they have provided Israel thus making the Arab air forces having more F-35 JSF’s than Israel possesses. For this reason, economic reasons and simply dependence on nobody else are reasons that Israel must immediately make plans to produce their own aircraft once more. This would provide for thousands of high paying jobs for everything from production line personnel to the engineers required to design the next generation of jet fighters and other support aircraft. This would make Israel more independent and no longer having to rely on the United States aircraft meeting the Israeli requirements for their own air superiority.

 

Israel Through the Ages United Nations Proposed and Arab Rejected Partition and Israel as Promised by International Treaty Israel on Morning of May 15 Before War of Annihilation

Israel Through the Ages
United Nations Proposed and Arab Rejected
Partition and Israel as Promised by International Treaty
Israel on Morning of May 15 Before War of Annihilation

 

Meanwhile, Bibi Netanyahu has already begun working on the means for permitting the EU to build facts on the ground in Area C. In a recent Cabinet meeting, Ministers set guidelines for approval of construction of housing units for Arabs in Area C. This is the necessary step required to make these EU communities legal and becoming fact on the ground. Once there have been guidelines set, they can be twisted, spindled, folded, torn and manipulated in order to provide cover for any and everything the EU desire to build and the eventual cutting off of the Jewish communities in Area C such that they will become unsupportable and have to be relinquished upon which the Arabs will take them over as well. The end result of this is to allow for the creation of an Arab Palestinian state covering the entirety of the disputed lands. The only area which would remain disputed would be East Jerusalem. This is where the PLO and PA demand that their state have its capital city. Should the Arabs succeed in making East Jerusalem part of their state, it would mean the Western Wall, Temple Mount and numerous other historic and biblical places being placed beyond the reach of the Jews just as it was when Jordan occupied these lands. Gaza has already been surrendered and Hamas with Islamic Jihad hold this region from which they launch attacks upon Israel often at the behest of Iran. Should the EU, UN, world busybodies and whomever else is pressing for the establishing of a new Arab state cut from the midsection of Israel succeed, which with Bibi’s assistance is inevitable, then Israel will have been forced back to the initial borders she faced at the onset of the Six Day War. This would make Israel nine miles in width at her narrowest point centered on Tel Aviv. This would place Tel Aviv in direct fire from rockets shot off the Judean Hills overlooking the center of Israel. Once Hamas backed by Iran took control of these areas, Israel could expect rockets to be launched whenever Iran felt it necessary into the heart of Tel Aviv where should they manage to destroy a single skyscraper Israel would be counting the dead in the thousands. Whenever such an attack takes place, we can assure you that the EU, UN and much the rest of the world would be demanding that Israel not be disproportional in their response. We discussed the irrationality of not using disproportional military response in this article. We know from experience that whatever the response by Israel to such an attack would be denounced by most of the world with the EU and UN leading the way. This is where Bibi’s arrangements with the EU will become a dire situation where Israel will have little response which the world will not condemn. How can we say this? Well, it has been the response even from those Israel considers to be friends every previous time Israel has found it necessary to respond to aggressive attacks by Arab forces. There is little if any reason to believe it would be otherwise.

 

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace and Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

Tel Aviv Now Before Green Line Peace
and
Tel Aviv the Day After Green Line Peace

 

Finally, after the coming September election, the situation will be that Likud will be unable to form a right centered coalition. This will be the result of the attacks which have already begun to come targeting the right-wing coalition of the Unified Right and the New Right with Ayelet Shaked at the top of their list. We will be witness to one Likud person after another denigrating this coalition of parties as not including every party. This is due to three right wing parties who have refused to join the larger coalition. These include Otzma Yehudit, Zehut and Noam, likely the furthest right party, all of which have thus far simply refused any reasonable offer in stead choosing to run independently despite all polls showing their not clearing threshold. The Likud attackers will continue to press the idea that the union which has been formed is not up to the expectations of Likud to consider them a rightful partner in any future government coalition. Why would the Likud be denigrating what many see as their natural allies? Because Bibi knows that these parties would never permit the programs and future which Bibi is hoping to form as his legacy. Yes, we are speaking of Bibi and his legacy building. The past history of Israeli politics has been centered on those who worked hardest to recognize the Arab claims to the lands which make up Israel. The Oslo Accords became the legacy for Simone Perez while the Gaza Withdrawal is the legacy for Ariel Sharon. Bibi Netanyahu has a legacy as being the longest serving Prime Minister, but he desires something far more difficult to be surpassed by a future Prime Minister. Establishing an Arab state, be it along the Green Line or the Security Barrier, would make for a legacy, whether evil or for good we would see, which could not be surpassed by any future Prime Minister. The attacks on the right-wing coalition will continue as should Bibi and the Likud Party succeed in diminishing the votes received by this right-wing coalition as well as destroying any hope that Otzma Yehudit, Zehut and Noam have of clearing threshold and gaining Likud a mere three or maybe four mandates will make forming a right-wing coalition impossible without gaining the support of a leftist party such as Yisroel Beiteinu. This will set up the situation where Bibi will simply claim that forming a right-wing coalition has become impossible, impossible because the Likud continues to attack their own seeking to wring every last vote possible for Likud. Bibi’s actual desire would be to form a coalition where the Likud was the sole party. Lacking such freedom, Bibi will likely form a Unity Government with Blue White. When General Gantz announced the founding of his party, a central part of Blue White, he stated that he had learned much during the Gaza withdrawal and believes he now knows how to better enact such withdrawals and can see areas where similar actions would work to bring about the two-state solution. Never mind that Mahmoud Abbas and the entirety of the PLO and PA leadership do not desire and never have desired making their own state, they simply want only one thing, the destruction of Israel and the removal of the Jews. This has been their desire since day one and it is not about to change. They desire the destruction of Israel after which they will leave the land for Egypt and Jordan to decide who gets which parts while the PLO continues on their path of murdering every Jew who currently resides in Israel. This is the explosive package which Bibi appears to desire to pin his legacy upon, that he was able to make the Arab state from within lands belonging to Israel under international law. The reason for the pressure under which Bibi is about to fold is due to the fact that unless Israel formally surrenders claim to any of the land between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, these lands are legally belonging to Israel and the Arabs residing in the Shomron should be legally relocated within Jordan.

 

One final note about the attempts to form this Arab state. The PLO and PA recently announced that leaving the region will no longer be permitted. Any Arab who attempts to leave the regions controlled by the PLO and PA will be charged with the crime of desertion and prevented from leaving and face jail or potentially execution to make an example of anyone who attempts to seek a better life elsewhere. This was in reaction to rumors that President Trump intends to allow Arab Palestinian to relocate and find a better life in a new location with a monetary bonus to assist their relocation. This is part and parcel of the PLO and PA efforts since the onset of the Oslo Accords, namely to put in place impediments which are meant to make any settlement of the Arab Israeli conflict impossible for as long as any solution permits the continued existence of the Jewish State. When the PLO was formed in September of 1964, it made no claim to Gaza, which was occupied by Egypt, or of the Shomron, occupied by Jordan and renamed West Bank, and only claiming the remainder of the lands between the river and the sea, or simply put, all of Israel. The PLO and PA continue to have this as their aim, the complete replacement of Israel with some Arab rule followed by the eradication of all the Jews residing within. Bibi is about to grant them their first in what they see as the eradication of the Jewish State in stages. Once they have gained the Shomron and East Jerusalem, their next claim will be the Galilee and then the Negev. This would make Israel the Tel Aviv metropolitan area completely surrounded by Arabs ready to use terrorism to drive the Jews from the lands by any means necessary. This is the reality that Israel faces and should Bibi form a unity government with the Blue White Party, then Israelis would be best served in forcing new elections by whatever means are necessary.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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