Was Iran the Threat Trump Claims?

 

United States President Trump pulled the Americans out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) while offering the Iranians to sit down and work out a more restrictive treaty (see video below), which President Trump assured them would benefit the world. The reality is that should a better treaty be hammered out which truly would prevent Iran from ever attaining nuclear weapons capability with an inspection regime, which assured their compliance, then this would make the world a far better place. The reality is that Iran will simply continue as they have been by doubling down on ignoring their agreements of the deal, refusing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) permission to inspect their military sites other than Fordow. That was simply the most glaring refusal of the Iranian regime.

 

 

When one adds the revelations made by Israel last week about the Iranian nuclear activities, divulging the treasure trove of records absconded with by Israeli intelligence agents (Mossad) over the period of a single night, President Trump had all the information he required to justify pulling out from the JCPOA. Still, we are amazed they could even move that many records within such a brief period of time without being challenged. The speech made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu revealing the information (see video below) was interesting in that he was not addressing the Israeli people, for that he speaks Hebrew, and was not, as many declared, speaking to President Trump; he was speaking for the benefit of the American public. President Trump, his Cabinet Members who were interested and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had already been granted full access to the information for reason of verification that they were indeed exactly as claimed and for their being informed. Prime Minister Netanyahu was making the preparation for the action taken by President Trump by revealing the full extent of the Iranian breaching of the treaty including the initial requirements for validating the treaty, thus the treaty was in reality an empty shell from the beginning. With that established and made by a credible source, President Trump could make his announcement without facing rejections of his statements claiming that he did not have actual information on whether Iran was complying or ignoring their obligations. That simply caused those who claim that President Trump cannot walk without assistance, as he is that unstable, from claiming that he was bringing the world to the brink once again. That as it may, the die is cast and President Trump gave Iran the offer to make a new deal, which they will reject instead making much bluster while continuing with their nuclear research and weapons manufacture, and now it is just a matter of time until President Trump places a time limit on his patience over Iran requesting negotiations for a new treaty. This will be where things could become quite serious including the possibility of Iran testing an actual nuclear weapon and declaring themselves a nuclear-armed power.

 

 

As far as the threat level that Iran poses, President Trump underestimated their threat levels. Much of what the Iranians are threatening across the Middle East goes well beyond Hezballah, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others within the MENA countries. Some of their threat stems from the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay (see image below), where criminal interests, terrorist training, and IRGC preparations for strikes within the Americas take place including the two attacks in Buenos Aires, the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) bombing and the bombing of the Israeli Embassy. Iran has made threats to destroy Israel as well as the United States. There have also been rising levels of threat to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States as well as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and beyond. These are the threats which President Trump referred.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

These threats are actually minimal compared to the entirety of the designs of the Ayatollahs. Their dreams and designs are a compilation of the desires of the Persian Empire to rule the known world, which has grown since their time, and the Shiite Islamic desire to spread Shia Islam to every person on Earth. This put in the most simple terms states that the Iranian leaders believe it will be their triumph in the end taking over the entirety of the Earth and converting every remaining person to Shia Islam. Their intent is to give people the choice of convert or die by beheading. They are serious about this just as they have been at enforcing their nightmarish rule over the people of Iran operating a torture operation at Evin Prison where those who protest the regime face if arrested. Despite these chilling possibilities, there have been large demonstrations against the Mullahs in 2009, which were brutally put down with numerous of the leaders simply disappearing. These demonstrations have been building once again. President Trump gave those who wish to replace their governance with something more attuned to the needs of the people and not so intent on military building and nuclear weapons development at the expense of the people and the national economy. President Trump stated that the people should be the first concern of their governance, not just an annoyance to be disregarded. This was a message that Washington D.C. will back their demonstrations this time should they decide to challenge the rule of the Mullahs. Should the Iranian people rise up, we can only hope the President is ready and willing to stand behind his encouraging words and not simply blowing smoke in their direction.

 

Iran, as dangerous as they likely currently are, could become far more of a world threat should they ever compile a nuclear weapons cache of thermos-nuclear weapons which are miniaturized making them useable as missile warheads with greater yields per unit size mountable on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) threatening the entirety of the globe from within hardened launch sites within Iran. Already it is suspected that Iranian ballistic missiles are capable of attaining four-thousand-kilometers with new plans reaching possibly over six-thousand-kilometers. Iran has also proven their ability at firing satellites into low-Earth orbit, which is the principle requirement for launching an EMP device that would be almost impossible to prevent should it reach deployment orbit and be set upon a reentry path. That aside, the weapon could be removed from orbit while it remains in its orbit by anti-satellite missiles which have been developed by Russia, China, Israel and the United States at a minimum. The Iranians went one-step further by placing a satellite in a trans-polar orbit where it crosses over the North Pole and South Pole. This also permits for an orbit which approaches the United States from a southerly direction over the Gulf of Mexico and through Texas to Louisiana passing over Kansas City and St Louis, the prime location for an EMP device to be deployed and approaching from the area where the anti-missile detection and interception capabilities are at their most limited. So, Iran is capable of orbiting satellites, firing continental ballistic missiles up to possibly five-thousand kilometers and is at the verge of producing solid fueled ICBMs and the thermonuclear warheads to place atop them, exactly how much more dangerous would make them an international concern? We would claim they already are an international concern of great weight.

 

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

 

The Iranians have been working on producing nuclear weapons since December 1984 when with the aid of China, Iran opened a nuclear research center in Isfahan. This was claimed to be for the peaceful use of nuclear power, a story we have heard before from every nation right before they test a nuclear device. The United States started from scratch with the Einstein letter in August of 1939 to plan for making a nuclear device and exploded a fully operational thermonuclear weapon at the start of November of 1952. That is from nothing to a thermonuclear device in less than fifteen years in complete secrecy. Iran was suspected of working towards nuclear weapons in late 1997 and this was stated with an earlier estimate in the 1990’s, probably in 1992. When one figures out that Iran had the advantage that in 1992 one could search the Internet for a design for a normal nuclear weapon giving them a head start towards weapons research, then the fifteen-year requirement should be considered even smaller. One can even find the basic design for a thermonuclear device on the Internet; so making such devices must be far less complicated in the current time with the available free information. So, we will stay with the fifteen-year period just to be fair. So, if we decide for the sake of fairness using 1995 as the start point for the Iranian nuclear research into weapons. That would mean that Iran should have been fully capable for the manufacture of thermonuclear warheads certainly by 2010. As the JCPOA was signed initially in November of 2013, three years after Iran should have already found a system for the production of a thermonuclear device, we can probably also assume that the JCPOA was signed closing the nuclear barn-house door well after the thermonuclear horses had escaped. Iran could have been building such weapons for three years before they entered an agreement which had little if any punitive measures and weak and limp investigatory abilities after which they could very easily have continued their manufacture of warheads. Assuming that Iranian physicists are competent and actually were working honestly on weapons development, the world should expect that Iran has at least fifty, if not several hundreds, of thermonuclear warheads sitting currently in the ground in hardened silos atop missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in Europe and across the entirety of the MENA states. Add into the formula their capability to place a satellite capable of carrying a small thermonuclear device into polar low Earth orbit, Iran already could deliver a devastating device anywhere on the planet. But that is not the end of the threat.

 

Iran is known to have also researched EMP weapons, particularly it is suspected they have developed those with nuclear and thermonuclear devices as their trigger systems. These EMP devices could be capable of setting off a continent wide EMP pulse if detonated between thirty and three-hundred miles. It could effect anywhere from a closed area to a near open area including all of the United States (see image below). The outlines of the range of a strong device detonated at three-hundred miles altitude are purely frightening. Imagine turning off the electricity for up to as much as a decade across North America or Europe or almost fifteen-hundred mile radius effect anywhere on the globe. This is a threat that Iran may have already produced weapons with such capability as any nuclear device can be modified such that it has a stronger EMP pulse effect and a lower yield. This means if they choose less of an explosive shock, that they can maximize the EMP effects of their weapon crippling any nation which has not fortified their electrical distribution grids. The really scary item is that very few, if any, nations have bothered to spend the necessary funds to fortify their grids to protect them from an EMP device. This is despite this effect being known since the middle of the 1950’s.

 

The United States carried out a test of the EMP effect with a test in the early 1960’s finding that a moderate strength device exploded over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of two-hundred-fifty miles and found the device affected electrical distribution in Hawaii approximately nine-hundred miles distant. This was beyond their expected range and this was a weapon not specifically set to maximize the EMP effect. The EMP Pulse has multiple ranges of effect which cause electrical devices an entire series of stresses which maximizes the numbers and types of electronic devices and how they are potentially destroyed. The more nations allow their electrical grids to remain susceptible to the adverse effects of EMP pulse attacks, the more expensive it becomes to protect their systems in the future. The advantage of hardening electrical grids as early as possible is that once they have been hardened, keeping the entirety of the grid hardened as time continues and the system grows, is that such hardening can be included in building regulations thus all upgrades and additions to the systems will retain the advantages made by the hardening of their electrical grids. The United States figured that it would have been implemented in three-to-five years at a cost of ten-to-twenty billion dollars back in 2008. This would have included hardening the entirety of the system. Even after this has been performed, devices plugged into the system could still be susceptible and should the Congress pass new standards today which required all future electronic devices which will be powered by the electrical grid to be made less susceptible to EMP pulses, it would need to give industry around three years in order for new power supplies to be designed and all the old power supplied to be sold or upgraded, perhaps a decade later devices would be made EMP immune. Even if they were only required to only build power supplies to be fifty percent less susceptible, within a decade almost all moderate quality devices would be near hundred percent protected simply because the public would demand such protection once EMP was raised by such that it became something sellers could use in their commercials in order to claim their protection was superior than their competitor. If you want proof, look at the many food cereals which claim to be healthy and their specific amounts of the different kinds of fats, triglycerides, omega-3 fatty acids, calories and you name what else, but they will each claim they have the magic combination which researchers claim will make the healthy eater drool.

 

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

 

Seatbelts were originally an option on vehicles and the commercials showed the great advantages to wearing them. Within a few years, virtually every car had seatbelts standard and then soon after the Congress made them mandatory. Then came the tree-point seatbelts and they were standard even in the sub-compacts and then Congress made them mandatory. Air quality and water quality has been cleaned up well beyond what the laws written half a decade later required by industry simply due to the pressure the people placed on cleaning up the environment and industry responded and there were even commercials which stated the advances the production of some products were using at their factories to reduce pollution. The upper limits on people-power on manufacturers are near beyond the ability for us to measure. You probably would like us to prove this point, and so we will. Back on April 23, 1985, the Coca-Cola Company decided to release their great new idea, “New Coke,” and it ended up being less exciting than hoped. The BIG problem was that they discontinued their old formula and discarded it once and for all betting the company on their new product. All their testing had proven this product to outperform Pepsi with Pepsi drinkers. There was a small problem with their research, they forgot to test Coke drinkers. As it turns out, Coke drinkers were quite pleased with the standard Coke product and were quite distressed when this new more Pepsi-ish formula replaced it. Well, within a rather short period, on July 11, 1985, seventy-eight days after New Coke’s introduction, Classic Coke was announced. It was the old formula making its return after a short hiatus. That is what the power of the people demanding their preference can do.

 

Congress will claim that their regulations have done so much to improve our lives, the reality is the people demanding companies meet their expectations has done so much and Congress, late as usual, has jumped on the bandwagon after the companies have already circled the wagons and put their ducks in a row meeting the people’s demands. The politicians have to have their talking points, and that is all they usually are and they are depending on the people not realizing that it was their power that got the changes and Congress just jumped in at the end and is attempting to steal all the credit. Yes, they are a bunch of over-pious, overly-righteous, self-promoting egomaniacs who believe that the people really are that easily fooled. We wish they were not so close to reality on that assumption and being informed is what makes people less susceptible to the politicians stroking them just to get their vote and then serve the moneyed interests who paid for the town hall meeting and barbeque that gained them the votes. When the people demand that their electrical providers harden their service system, that is when it will be performed. Once the entirety of the nations is hardened, then Congress will require it and put aside tons of money presumably to harden the electrical grid. The money will be given to the surviving providers to repay them for what the people forced them into action and performing. Congress, always is there with the money, just after the fact more often than not.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Coming Wars from Iran

 

Where the coming war actually began is rather difficult to pin down. Was it the recent drone incursion into Israel? Probably not. Was it any of the missiles launched from Yemen at Riyadh? Also unlikely. Was it the Second Lebanon War started by Hezballah to cover actions in Syria both at the behest of Iran? Again, it was probably not. Was it the war Hamas fomented through launching a near uncountable number of rockets daily onto civilian targets covering half of Israel? Once again, this was not it. The start of the war coming from Iran did not begin or even originate in Tehran or anywhere else in Iran, it began just over six-thousand-three-hundred miles away in Washington D.C. The coming wars from Iran plus the current wars from Iran, namely Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Yemen as well as Saudi Arabia, Israel and the nations of the Gulf Cooperation Council all started with the foreign policy of President Jimmy Carter who ousted the Shah who was, be it ever so slowly, moving Iran towards a democracy, and implanting the Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a religious man and thus incapable of having warlike intentions and obviously a peaceful man, as assessed by President Carter.

 

Even this grievous error in judgment, which placed the Iranian people into a totalitarian regime which has enslaved the people to the religious whims of their Supreme Leaders, originally Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini followed by the current Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei. They have imposed a strict Shiite Islamic rule where the vast majority of the wealth is spent on weaponry and the comfort of the leading Ayatollahs and their selected henchmen who are tasked with giving the appearance of a democracy. Iran is a democracy if a democracy is defined as free elections where one may vote for any of the preapproved candidates chosen by the Guardian Council, an appointed and constitutionally mandated 12-member council that wields considerable power and influence in the Islamic Republic of Iran. No matter how many political parties pretend to have a say in who is elected to office, the only party that matters is the Grand Council and those candidates they approve. The Iranian Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader official name is Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution. This Islamic Revolution refers to their designs to bring Shia Islam to all of the Muslim World replacing Sunni Islam as the predominant variety of Islam. After taking control of the Islamic world they have not completed their revolution as they intend to fulfill the Quranic command to conquer the world spreading Islam to every corner making it the sole religion, and in the case of the Grand Ayatollah, that would have to be Shia Islam. This is the sole aim of the Iranian regimes and is not conditional on the person who is the Supreme Leader as it is conditional part of their being the Supreme Leader.

 

Grand Ayatollahs Ruhollah Khomeini and Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei

 

The error in judgment by President Carter was probably survivable as Iranian oil production was waning as infrastructure fell from disrepair and lack of investment as the Iranian leadership was more interested in building their military and supporting terrorism throughout the Middle East and beyond. They all but established Hezballah, support Islamic Jihad and oft times Hamas as well as establishing a base for training and launching attacks on the Americas located in the South American Continent in an area called the Tri-Borders Region located where the three nations of Paraguay, Argentina and Brazil border. Iran used this location from which to launch the two deadly raids on Jewish sites in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The first attack came on March 17, 1992, on the Israeli Embassy murdering twenty-nine individuals, four Israeli civilians and twenty-five Argentine civilian workers plus one terrorist suicide bomber along with injuring two-hundred-forty-two civilians. Islamic Jihad Organization claimed responsibility for the attack while Hezbollah operative Imad Mugniyah was charged by Argentina with participating in the bombing of the Israeli embassy. Then, a little over two years later, on July 18, 1994, Iranian operatives bombed the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) where eighty-five innocents were murdered with another three-hundred-plus were injured. The attack was suspected to have Hezbollah and Iran involvement as Ansar Allah, a Hezbollah front, claimed responsibility for the bombing. Argentina has attempted to no avail to gain extradition of several Iranian officials they have evidence participated in the planning and execution of these attacks.

 

Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina Building Bombing Aftermath

 

Iran is currently behind a number of wars and internal struggles. These include conflicts concerning Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Lebanon with additional attacks having been launched against Saudi Arabia, Israel and Afghanistan while also training revolutionaries in Bahrain and finally the issue of “Export of Revolution,” defined in both the Iranian constitution and the founding statute of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as an essential part of the Islamic Republic. This is the concept that the Islamic Revolution of Iran, which was the name given the return of the Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979, which demands that their eventual aim is the conquest of the entirety of Earth and the spread of Shia Islam to every person residing therein. It is the central concept of the Iranian government and the promise made by the Supreme Leader to “Export the Revolution” which guarantees that Iran will spread their influence. The Iranians are not foolish or lacking in planning as they use proxies and foreign leaders in their Exportation the Revolution to the far reaches as witnessed in Buenos Aires with the attacks on the Israeli Embassy and on the AMIA building. The Iranians are the financiers, military trainers and backers as well as a logistical resource of the largest and most expansive terrorist group on the planet, Hezballah. Most people think of Hezballah and immediately think Lebanon and attacks on Israel but Hezballah also is an active participant in the Syrian and Yemenis civil wars as well as the main force behind the Tri-Border Region and any operations planned and originating from that terror base. Their potential for spreading terrorism to any point on the globe is something that Iran has envisioned for some time, and through Hezballah, they have established this ability and the proof has been that there are a number of terrorist attacks that have been traced potentially to Hezballah but have yet to be proven.

 

Iran has consistently stated their desires to destroy Israel and to gain control over the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran is suspected of having orchestrated the recent broadcasts by Qatar calling for the internationalization of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina taking them from Saudi control placing them under control of a board of the several Islamic nations to include, of course, Iran. Saudi Arabian spokespeople from the government expressed that the Qatari broadcasts were the equivalent to a declaration of war and demanded that such calls cease immediately. Qatari officials declared they never made such a demand and that the government was not responsible for the broadcasts, as they do not control al Jazeera. Of course, nobody in Saudi Arabia believes the Qatari denials and neither does anybody with even the slightest knowledge of Qatar, al Jazeera, Iran and the Middle East. The reality is that Iran is escalating the level of threats on both Saudi Arabia with the broadcasts calling for the internationalizing of Mecca and Medina and with Israel with the launching of an advanced drone into Israeli territory this past week. Iran is behind much of the violence in the Middle East along with those who are taking advantage of the chaos such as Turkey who has begun a war with the Kurdish regions in northern Syria. Iran’s apparent intents currently are to push Saudi Arabia into moving against Qatar over the al Jazeera provocative broadcasts after which it would not surprise us if the Iranian response would be their own assault on Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates from which they could then assist Qatar without the need for an amphibious assault against Saudi Arabian forces who would already be in Qatar.

 

Their other target is Israel who they are hoping they can continue to provoke responses which Iran will use the European Union and United Nations as well as other European nations to proclaim Israel the aggressor. It would not be beyond reason to fear Iran pressing Hamas to initiate another conflict with Israel by once again launching rockets starting with a few smaller rockets per week escalating eventually to closing in on one-hundred missiles and rockets over most of Israel every day. The international media will all but ignore the escalation as once they run one article covering a single launch of even a half dozen launches with limited range, they will see no reason to mention the ever increasing numbers or the increasing range as they will claim it is all more of the same which they had covered. They will claim that it is not news unless something drastic occurs, say an Israeli response. Then the world media will cover the Israeli response making it appear as if Israel is overreacting to a few rockets and only five or six paragraphs into any coverage will the actual number of missiles are being fired into Israel and the fact that as far north as Haifa as well as Tel Aviv and Jerusalem and everything inbetween has rockets raining upon them. Once Israel responds and beginning on the second day the new story will be the number of people dead on the two sides and how so few have been killed in Israel, while more are dead in Gaza. We have all seen this fiasco during the last Gaza war and the reasons will be the same this time, Hamas does everything to maximize civilian deaths on their own side while Israel has invested millions to make their population as safe as possible. But why should reality get in the way of demonizing Israel and making it appear that the Jews are evil and unworthy people who are hypocrites in claiming they want peace. The European media and much of their leadership and people take great pleasure in making Israel and Jews appear in as bad a light as possible as it makes them get that feeling of superiority they crave. This is one of the more nefarious forms of anti-Semitism with which we are all too familiar.

 

Iran will continue their provocations through drones, Hamas, Hezballah and possibly even Syrian launched missiles. They will continue to taunt Saudi Arabia hoping to provoke a military response. We will eventually see Iranian offensive attempting to get Jordan involved in a conflict probably using Hezballah or Syria and possibly both. Their intent with Jordan is to gain a greater front against Saudi Arabia by forcing either Syrian conquest of Jordan or Hezballah installing an Iranian puppet government after overthrowing the King possibly using the Palestinian people. Iran has been attempting to gain inroads on the Palestinian Authority (PA) through which they could also gain a path reaching the Arab population in Jordan. Should Iran ever get control of the PA they would probably wait for Mahmoud Abbas to be replaced either through a coup or through waiting for his passing as he is over eighty years old and his health is questionable. This or the ever present possibility of Hamas taking over the PA as they did in Gaza which would also bring the currently PA controlled regions within Iranian influence. Should Iran ever take control of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina one could expect them, in time, requiring that those making the Hajj adopt Shiism hoping to find a more peaceable means of replacing Sunni Islam with Shiite Islam. Do not think that Iran does not have designs further afield as Iran would take aim on Europe through financing terrorist groups using Hezballah and the IRGC to make inroads through offering weapons, training, explosives and financial support. Iran has grand and extreme designs for the future of the world under their oversight and eventual control. With the nuclear breakthrough likely in the near future, if they have not already established themselves clandestinely as a nuclear power, it is only a matter of time before the world witnesses their first attack of nuclear terrorism. We can only hope it will not take such a horrific wake-up call before the world realizes the potential violence under design by Iran for our futures.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Coming Failure of Paris Accords With or Without United States

 

There has been a huge amount of clamoring since President Trump pulled the United States from the Paris Climate Accord. Claims that this will guarantee it will fail are farcical at best and sheer straight-faced lies at worst. The Paris Climate Accord will stand or fail on its own merits. The reason for the commotion is due to the loss of being able to point an accusatory finger at the United States and excusing every other nation failing on the fact that the United States also failed and apparently their failure was worse than these other failing nations thus giving them room for excuses. Here is a little secret which is seldom if ever stated, anybody can easily predict which nations will fail and which will actually reach or exceed their Paris Accord numbers and it is easy. Simply determine whether each nation has a growing or declining economy. Those nations with a growing economic output will fail to reach their set goals and those whose economic indicators are in decline, they will be able to reach their set goals. The reason for this being the indicator is with a higher economic output a nation will require increasing energy while a declining economic outlook will lead to their lessening their energy needs. It really is that easy.

 

So, now you ask if there would be some way of taking this into consideration. The truth is that it would be very easy and could be done by altering the means by which the carbon output is calculated. Instead of simply measuring the total carbon footprint and simply using that gross output without taking anything else into consideration, the measurement should be measured against GDP and population. The solution is to take this total output and divide the number by some version of GDP or other economic measure such that you end up with carbon footprint per unit of economic production. This is the true measure of the advance or lack of addressing pollution and its controls on a scale, which is fair and places everybody on an equal measuring basis. But this is not the reason for these ecology agreements like the Paris Accord or the Kyoto Protocols. They have little concern when it comes to bringing pollution and carbon footprints into order and lessening the actual pollution; otherwise, there would be stiffer demands made of countries such as Brazil, India and China. Taking China as an example, it has been found that China is estimated to have released nearly twice the carbon emissions as the United States and around two and a half times the European Union. Yet China is usually given a pass or an inflated target which allows them to continue at their higher levels without embarrassment. The real reason for these climate change and impact treaties is to force the industrialized world to transfer their manufacturing output and production to the third world and thus transfer a large percentage of the new wealth from the industrialized world to the third world. There are a number of problems with this concept and much of it has to do with actually cleaning the environment, something such a transfer would increase the carbon emissions by many fold, potentially as high as a ten-fold increase.

 

Perhaps it is time to inspect many of these undesirable effects such as a transfer of production from the developed world to the developing world would produce. While many nations in the industrialized world have decreasing carbon emissions per unit of economic output, the developing nations would have a steady and unchanging or slightly increasing carbon emissions per unit of economic output as they would continue using coal fired plants and many of the new ones they would require in order to facilitate increased industrialization would be hastily built coal burning plants with little if any sanitizing of the output and transferring carbon emissions straight and untreated into the atmosphere and any other pollutant the new manufacturing would produce would potentially end up in the land or waters also untreated plus the increases of other pollutants such as nitrates and phosphates and other dangerous gasses and water pollutants. Much of this is because these nations do not have the necessary infrastructure to treat and control such forms of pollution and currently do not have the current infrastructure and technology. Due to lack of capital these undeveloped nations have largely agricultural economies and thus depend mostly on coal fired electric generation as this is the least expensive to construct and also the least expensive to operate thus the most production for the least outlay. These nations being forcibly pressed into increasing manufacturing capability over a short period of time rather than gradually allowing for increasing capital paralleling the increasing manufacturing forces them to have to use the least expensive power generation systems to meet the large increase in electrical demand. On the other hand, if allowed to slowly and naturally, then there would be a general increase in revenue as the initial manufacturing is built allowing for any new power generation to be implemented with carbon suppressing equipment such as scrubbers. Then as industrial output increases, the nation can handle it in stages with better planning. Slow and steady is better than forced feeding.

 

For some reality about the United States, we can realize that if every nation could match the United States going forward, then we would have progress in reduction of carbon emissions in a real sense, measured emissions per unit of economic output. This is best displayed using graphs. This graph depicts the carbon emissions per person from energy production from 1960 through 2012. There is one fact which bears keeping in mind exactly what this graph depicts. This is actually two graphs in one, the 1960 through around 1985 and then 1985 through 2012. The end period of both segments shows dropping per capita carbon emissions released in the energy generation industries. There was a reason that the per capita increase after about 1985 was due to the general use of air conditioning plus the movement of people from the north into the south as there was a general migration as airconditioning became less expensive. Additionally, with the end of the 1980’s began the computer revolution and the electronics revolution. The per capita energy use began to explode as the per household electrical demands took off with entertainment systems replacing small televisions and often two such systems in an average upper middle class home. Add in two, three, four or more computers per household and more kitchen appliances and more and more electronics and the power consumption kept climbing yet the increase in carbon emissions was finally reduced to a point where despite each household used four, five, six or possibly ten times the electrical use per household compared to the usage in 1960 and the carbon emissions increased by less than one-tenth. Despite this phenomenal increase in electrical demand there was very little increased in actual carbon emissions release per person. This is one means of making the total carbon emissions make more sense by measuring it against something that also represents demand, which represents actual people and their usage is what is being measured.

 

 

Another means for measuring and giving it more meaning rather than simple gross carbon emissions alone is to measure total greenhouse emissions per person, against GDP and with showing populations and GDP from 1990 through 2014. While both populations and GDP increase, both greenhouse emissions measured per person and per unit of GDP decreased from 1990 through 2014, which is impressive. All of this and the different measures of the United States is all well and good, but is what the United States has accomplished at all impressive? That is an excellent question which is also best answered with more graphs.

 

 

Let us now see how China, the European Union and the United States compare in total carbon dioxide emissions with projections into the next decade plus. The comparison is stark and also reveals what we spoke about earlier, if the world were really serious about greenhouse emissions, they would be less concerned with President Trump pulling the United States out of an agreement which is more about transferring wealth from the developed world to the third world and the developing world, in particular China, India, central and southern Africa, South America and much of Asia.

 

Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions for China Compared to European Union and United States

 

The reality is the global emissions accords have worked in sending many hundreds if not thousands of manufacturers to build their plants in China to the point that China was building more than one large coal fired generating plant per month with some estimates putting it at one such plant per week. Such a rate of production of generating plants does not leave much room for building more than the generation plant and little as far as carbon suppression or mitigation equipment. When China sponsored the Olympics in Beijing, it was necessary to all but close shop on all the local manufacturing and request that residents not use air conditioning and other unnecessary electronic equipment and devices. These steps were taken so that the power company could shut down the majority of their power plants starting with those closest to the Olympic camp only restarting some to power the Olympic park and events themselves. This did manage to improve the air quality in Beijing such that the athletes would not be adversely affected due to competing in the Olympics. As a side benefit, the people of Beijing were treated to almost six weeks of clean air which was probably their greater joy and probably had them wishing they could sponsor the Olympics constantly.

 

The Truth About the Air in Beijing and Breathing Masks

 

The above picture shows two young women and one of the Red Guards stationed outside the Forbidden City in Beijing on the right and a breakdown of some of the chemicals that are found in the air in the city. It also tells of the history and how horrific the air quality can reach when the winds die and the pollution accumulates. Having driven into Denver in August when there are often temperature inversions and a reddish-brown bowl sat over the city in the late 1970’s and having read in the late 1960’s how people were safer to breathe through an unlit cigarette (some even claimed a lit cigarette) rather than breathing the air straight as the pollution was making air quality so horrible. I was in Cleveland in late June of 1969 when the Cuyahoga River caught fire, yes, the river caught fire, and burned for quite a distance (see video below). During that time period, Lake Erie was so filled with nitrates and phosphates that the plant life literally made the lake impossible for supporting fish. These were the days when the United States had its worst pollution and industry began to clean up their acts. Power plants installed scrubbers and manufacturers began filtering and treating their wastewater before permitting them to flow into rivers and streams. What people will claim is that government forced them to clean up their acts with the Clean Air Act and the Clean Water Act. The truth is fortunately different. The American public began demanding that Congress do something about the problem and by the time they finally agreed upon what legislation to pass, industry had surpassed their legislated levels by a fair margin with some specific, and often too spectacular, exceptions, which did need persuading. This was the reality; industry even began using their efforts in their advertising in the late 1960’s and early 1970’s. So, once again we had Congress passing legislation to close the barn door after the horses had escaped, been rounded up, returned to the paddock and the barn door closed and locked. Then the Congressional representatives ran for reelection bragging about how they saved America from becoming a polluted wasteland. The truth is all too often Congress passes legislation addressing a problem after the problem has passed and then claim they fixed it for the next decade or two.

 

 

There is pollution in the world and some of it is dangerous. In Brazil, farmers will burn down square miles of rainforest in order to make farmland they can work, as that is cheaper than trying to buy existing lands. China we have talked about but India is not that far behind them and the Ganges River, which many Indians wash themselves in because the waters are presumed to be blessed and sacred, are instead actually dangerous. The danger levels of the water increase ever mile that one gets closer to its exit into the Indian Ocean. The world would be better served if the third world and developing world were first introduced to modern farming techniques so they could increase yields and feed their people at a lesser cost. By increasing their agricultural output, their economic situation would improve. There should also be work to improve their governance such that they become rule by law and not by man. The laws must apply equally to all including the rulers as other than the Queen and Queen’s Mother in England, nobody is above the law (actually neither are the royals in England though they probably are in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and so forth). Once they have an improved agricultural economy then they can begin to improve their industrial base and with assistance in building clean energy plants, they can do this with minimal decrease, if any, in air and water quality. This is something that should be done properly and in stages and with each nation brought forward only once they have good governance.

 

The age where dictators and their cronies are made wealthy charging for food and other relief sent by the developed world while the people remain hungry, ill, lacking medical care, and impoverished while Big Cheese Who Cares reaps in millions of dollars. Probably the prime example of this is in Gaza with Hamas and with the Palestinian Authority and Mahmoud Abbas and his gang of merry terrorists. Yes, the developed world has a responsibility to lead and to do so properly and with respect and dignity given to all people. Further, the developed world has a responsibility to share their knowledge and experience in governance to improve the world and spread the rule by laws over other systems which keep people impoverished while their governing classes drive Mercedes on the nations’ dirt roads. Finally, the United Nations has proven completely incapable of performing these tasks and perhaps a new international group of developed democratic nations which can lead and assist the developing and third world nations and provide a message and example through which these nations will desire to learn and progress and have their development made in such a manner that their environment remains clean and their progress performed in proper and planned stages bringing them forward at a pace which matches their ability to develop clean power and their education systems produce a working class capable of the technologies as they are introduced. We believe here at BTC through examples of how such programs have been completed successfully in agricultural development such as this one in Kenya, Ethiopia and elsewhere, medical progress such as providing training and equipment for hospitals to perform surgeries on children with heart problems and other similar programs that these things done properly are doable if only people and nations are willing to make the efforts. Please do check these last links as they depict what is possible and is being accomplished through efforts of people who care for all people.

 

Beyond the Cusp