Beyond the Cusp

December 21, 2014

Iran and Hamas Make-Up and Reunite in Terror War

 

Hamas had insulted Iran and basically enjoined with the Iranian Enemies fighting against Syrian strongman Bashir al-Assad while Iran and Russia were supporting and arming Syria and their terror allies from Lebanon, Hezballah. This little parting of their ways Hamas was cut-off from their suppliers of rocket engines, largest and most capable rockets and tunneling expertise which had been provided by Iran or Hezballah agents. The IRGC (Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps) are the Iranian forces who are deployed to train groups and facilitate terror across the globe through providing expertise in rockets, ambush tactics, explosive construction, tunneling expertise, bunker construction and advice across a wide variety of subjects which assist in maximizing effectiveness and destruction of properties and killing of often civilian innocents in addition to military and security personnel. Their initiated conflict with the IDF (Israeli Defense Forces) cost Hamas much if not all of their infiltration tunnels which the IDF destroyed through selective placement of explosives collapsing the numerous and varied main and sub-tunnels which had reached across the Israeli border and to exits near or within numerous Israeli kibbutzim and military staging sites to utilize in a planned Rosh Hashanah massive terror assault, an assault which was prevented by the tunnel demolitions saving untold numbers of Israelis across the entirety of the Gaza border and beyond had all their plans succeeded. The leadership of Hamas has been attempting to make their apologies and reestablish their friendly relations and restore their lifeline for arms and expertise which had been lost when they sided against al-Assad, a close Iranian ally and critical state if Iran is to maintain their Shiite Crescent from Tehran to Beirut and other Mediterranean port cities. Syria is also important as the Damascus International Airport is the main point for Iranian and Russian supplies, especially advisors and armaments, to be transferred to Syrian military forces and to Hezballah, the terrorist entity which has gained control over Lebanon giving Iran an ally capable of threatening the northern borders of Israel. Now with the reunion of Hamas with Iran, the Iranians have reestablished their alliance with terrorists who can threaten Israel on her southern border even from the Sinai Peninsula when Hamas is able to establish communications with or place assets in those tactically sensitive areas. This is just as major an arrangement for Iran as it is for Hamas.

 

This reemergence of the Iran-Hamas relationship may have been the reason behind the recent Hamas demonstration in their largest ever military training exercise which was concluded with the launching of a rocket into southern Israel, the third such rocket launch into Israel since this past summer’s open conflict between Hamas and Israeli security and military forces. Israel finally responded with a bombing sortie which Hamas reported caused little damage and no casualties. This has been the history of the military responses by Israel to Hamas launches of rockets intended to strike civilian targets. Hamas launches a series of rockets over time into Israel aiming for civilian areas often striking near homes, schools, medical clinics, shopping centers and other places where civilians gather in numbers with only the hand of G0d preventing serious injuries in all too many instances finally forcing a response from Israel who launch a reprisal strike often on an empty building or in an empty field causing virtually no real damage and certainly not effecting Hamas terror functions and abilities. Every so often Israel will strike an actual Hamas sensitive target such as a rocket machining facility or a weapons storage shed, many of which are placed adjacent to Civilian structures often sharing a common wall such that any such location targeted also causes civilian damage which Hamas utilizes to express outrage which is immediately picked-up upon by European sympathizers including many political entities from the European Union such as their past and present foreign ministers, Catherine Ashton and Federica Mogherini respectively, and numerous Ministers of Parliaments from all too many European nations which is soon followed by massive leftist demonstrations within Israel and across Europe all coordinated by anti-Israeli, anti-Zionist, anti-Semitic Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) which receive their operating budgets from several European national governments and precious little funding from other sources. Often these NGOs receive funding from a central NGO which is totally financed through some single European national government. Such organized conspirational financing where questionably financed NGOs echoing the identical complaints made by European government or European Union Ministers or officials simply amplifies the denouncements of Israel which are originated, established, coordinated and conspired by these European politically related and tied groups and governmental institutions and individuals. When one then follows through with the media which will quote Hamas and other anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic terrorist or political entities word for word without any provisos or commentary giving them the weight and appearance of factual reporting rather than slanderous defamation yet in the very same news reporting an Israeli statement or press release is accompanied by modifiers such as reportedly, according to Israeli spokespersons, reputed by Israelis and other challenges to their veracity, then people watching such reporting are pressed to disbelieve the Israeli side while accepting without question the Hamas or terrorist statements simply due to the language and prefacing by the editorializing reporting by the news bureaus. The most disturbing examples of this problem is when similar reporting is committed by Israeli media such as Haaretz and any number of television news casts, some of which were broadcast on the nightly news as he was a well-known newscaster and editorialist who, as his father before him, translated his news fame into a political campaign and currently heads a party and who is vying to become the next Israeli Prime Minister, Yair Lapid.

 

With Hamas and Iran now returning to their collaboration against Israel there is an additional threat poised on Israel’s every border, the consequences of any Israeli attack on the Iranian nuclear sites or other instillations has become more tenuous and fraught with threats. This makes the negotiations of the P5+1 powers (United States, Russia, China, Germany, France and Great Britain) with Iran which just extended their deadline to reach an agreement preventing Iran from attaining breakout nuclear capability all the more vitally important. The threat is that these extensions which now have extended the deadline for reaching a conclusive treaty more than a year and approaching a year and a half which simply provides Iran that much additional time to not only complete their research but to also actually build some nuclear warheads to place atop their constantly improving missiles which are approaching ICBMs which would be capable of reaching anywhere in the world. This is important as even with their current abilities the Iranians can use either a North Korean plan, which I am sure after the SONY debacle they would gladly assist the Iranians, or use their own plan which they have practiced in the Caspian Sea with formidable results, topics explained more fully here. I guess the rule here is to never antagonize any potential enemy whose potentials to destroy your civilization are unknown and potentially capable of rendering your nation back to the times and technology of the American Civil War or worse, the stone age before electricity. Unfortunately for Israel, the United States and eventually for Europe as well, the Iranians may soon have produced, if not already producing, a fairly sizeable nuclear arsenal consisting of various weapons sizes and types to include EMP devices, neutron bombs and any other one might imagine since nobody really knows for sure how many nuclear sites the Iranians are operating or their locations and capabilities. What we do know is that the International Atomic Energy Agency (AIEA) has reported that the Iranians have not been completely cooperative nor have they permitted any inspection of known research sites such as their Parchin Military Base where it is suspected research was performed on nuclear triggers for warhead development. This also raises one problem that most concerns Israel, what if Iran has developed nuclear weaponry which they provide to Hezballah or Hamas to use against Israel. Such a weapon could be driven into the heart of Israel, the center of Tel Aviv, and detonated potentially before the vehicle could be intercepted. Such a weapon if smuggled into Samaria or Judea (West Bank) it could be transported to the Temple Mount and detonated there in order to lay the blame on Israel bringing unimaginable denunciations and hatreds down on Israel without waiting for any research to prove the origins of the device. Even after it may have been proven not to be an Israeli device but was suspected, or proven, to be a device of Iranian origins, there would still be those Europeans, amongst others, who would continue to blame Israel denouncing the Jewish State mercilessly ignoring any proof of Iranian perfidy or Israeli innocence. The Arab and Muslim worlds would go ballistic blaming Israel for the destruction of the Temple Mount and the historic religious shrines of both Islam and Christianity. This might have one blessing in that it would finally have Islamic leaders bemoaning the damage to Christian shrines and not just showing concern for Islamic losses. The reuniting of Hamas with Iran will be hazardous to Israel and likely problematic for Fatah and Mahmoud Abbas as well and potentially worse for Abbas than Israel as eventually Hamas will take control of the areas claimed by Abbas and Fatah. As a matter of fact, the sooner he realizes his oft stated dream of an Arab state, the sooner that Hamas will demand elections in which they are guaranteed to replace Abbas and control the new parliament, or should Abbas continue to refuse to hold elections, especially as he has done for his own position as chairman, then Hamas will simply repeat the act which gave them Gaza, a coup, a coup as bloody as any resistance makes necessary. This is the importance of the renewed Iran Hamas reunification of relations and the future should Iran become a nuclear weaponized power, because the P5+1 nations led by the United States fail to be effective in their duties, something which President Obama does not appear to appreciate the vital importance of nor the deadly consequences for any failure.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 7, 2014

Explosion at Iran’s Parchin Nuclear Plant and What We Might Learn

There is a very good reason why the Iranians continue to refuse to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect the Parchin Military Compound and the areas they suspect is the research facility for nuclear triggers, but that is just the half of it. Today the Iranian semi-official ISNA news agency reported there were two fatalities resulting from a fire which swept through an “explosive materials production unit” which produced a “loud explosion” which was audible several kilometers away. Further reports from opposition Sahamnews outlet claimed the explosion was so powerful it shattered windows some fifteen kilometers away from the site. Any way you slice through the conflicting information, the one thing which is unavoidable is that Iran had a very bad accident in the facilities where their research for a working nuclear trigger is presumed by numerous intelligence sources to be carried out. This should get any thinking person to wondering what the Iranians would want with a complicated, sophisticated high explosive trigger which might require sufficient high explosives stored on sight which might cause an explosion even remotely close to what was reported if they are not producing nuclear weapons from their completely peaceful civilian nuclear research program. But such thinking should raise further questions such as what type of weapon would produce the need for such amounts of explosives.

If it had not been established before, it should now be evident that the Iranians are working towards a nuclear weapons arsenal and not just electrical generation for future needs and medical research and treatments. What remains is to discern is the most likely type of nuclear weapon the Iranian scientists have been ordered to research and produce for their arsenal. If one were to look back in history to the Manhattan Project we would discover that there were two completely different types of nuclear devices dropped on Japan. The program climaxed with the dropping of the two bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, “Little Boy” and “Fat Man” in that order. The bomb dropped on Hiroshima by parachute at 8:15 in the morning was called Little Boy, and it exploded 2,000 feet above the city with a yield equal to approximately 12-15,000 tons of TNT as calculated by the top scientists of the project. The Little Boy bomb was not even tested before being deployed as the physicists were so completely certain of the design that they figured that it did not need to have a demonstration for proof of validity of concept. Little Boy used the Uranium-235 in a gun-style bomb where a machined bullet, projectile or plug which sits at one end of the length of the device with high explosives behind it set to explode when the detonator activates. The projectile travels at high speed into the target which is a block or sphere also made from Uranium-235. The impact speed is set at a sufficient velocity to begin a super-critical mass, initiating a nuclear chain reactive explosion. The design of a bomb of the style and engineering is considered to be so primitive in this the twenty-first century that it can be readily downloaded or found in your local library, assuming there is still a public library in your town in this Internet age. Developing a bomb such as Little Boy would not require any amount of explosives sufficient to shatter windows fifteen kilometers away or be heard over an even greater distance.

So, could the Iranians be working on another design, say the same as the bomb dropped on Nagasaki which was named Fat Man which was an entirely different design which had required a test device before it was approved for use by the military forces in the Pacific to force an end to World War II. Fat Man was an implosion-type nuclear weapon with a plutonium core. Fat Man was detonated at an altitude of approximately 1,800 feet over the city and had a yield of approximately 20,000 tons of TNT. In order to bring the plutonium-240 isotope to critical mass and initiate the chain reaction the surrounding high explosives needed to be designed carefully, crafted with care and near perfection and then detonated in an exacting sequence which places equal and seamlessly even pressure compacting the core until the bomb explodes with greater force than the entire bomb weight in high explosives could ever produce. This type of bomb requires a sufficient mass of high explosives in order to produce the device, but probably not a store of high, medium and slow explosives to have produced the explosions described occurring at the Parchin Military Base. The design for a Fat Man type device is also relatively easy to find though some of the finer points of the device are usually left out or are vaguely defined. There is a very good reason that the design for a Fat Man device are not given anywhere near as completely as the Little Boy device, though neither device’s complete design is given, is that there is another level of nuclear device which requires an implosions fission device similar but more advanced than Fat Man as the precursor in order to attain the force to attain the fusion of a hydrogen bomb, a thermo-nuclear device, a far more destructive device than any fission device by a factor anywhere from ten to a thousand times.

The making of either the gun style or the implosion type device could be developed, even given the sketchy designs available, by any physicist of any repute. Developing a thermo-nuclear device would be considerably more difficult. Such a device starts with an implosion device of sufficient yield that it can compress the entirety of the core device to force the fusion of hydrogen atoms in the core device. Even after developing a large and energetic enough to provide the compressive force, one still has to develop the inner core of the thermo-nuclear device which is never revealed with any accuracy or even imaginary measurements. This is likely wise and makes the development of such weapons of mass destruction that much more difficult which will hopefully handicap those much of the rest of the world prays never get possession of such devices. Iran has been working towards developing such a device for close to two decades. Developing a thermo-nuclear device would require more high explosives as the triggering mechanism would have to be far more sophisticated and thus more experimentation. Perhaps the suspicions of Netanyahu are more valid than the excuses from other locales where all the Israeli protestations are dismissed out of hand. Perhaps we should all simply soothe our suspicions and fears with the fact and hopes that the explosion set the Iranian nuclear weapons program back some relatively large amount. Still, we can also prove our humanity and regret the loss of life and give our sympathy to their families and pray that the Iranian nuclear research and programs never take an additional life, Iranian or anybody from anywhere on our ever shrinking planet.

Below are pictures depicting before and after the explosion:

 

Picture explosion at Parchin Military Base in Iran

Before/After Parching Military Base explosions

 

Beyond the Cusp

October 28, 2013

Iranian Nuclear Paradigm Changed

When Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made his speech using a picture of a primitive bomb to describe the then Israeli Red Line concerning the Iranian nuclear program he stated that should the Iranians enrich sufficient uranium to 20% to be able to then further process it and attain sufficient uranium enriched to 90% or more to be able to make an atomic device then Israel would have to act as the threat would then become too great to ignore any longer. That Red Line has blurred out of existence since then as the Iranians have made advances in their centrifuge designs which would now permit them to enrich uranium straight from approximately 3% to the 90% plus for weapons grade uranium. This now means that the debate the Iranians are engaging the P5+1 in the nuclear talks where they are offering to no longer enrich uranium to 20% in exchange for the lifting of the majority of the sanctions, especially the sanction on their oil production and sales is a ruse and a false promise as they know full well that they are no longer constrained to need to have 20% enrichment in order to have breakout capacity to reach nuclear weapons capability. The Iranians are promising to only enrich uranium to 3% to 3.5% and no longer enrich beyond that level because they no longer require the higher level yet President Obama and the European leaders are all pronouncing the great willingness of the Iranians to meet the demands of the Western leadership and that they are showing willingness to prove they truly are not interested in attaining nuclear weapons. Either the Western leaders are being poorly advised, are complete fools or are intentionally ignoring realities because they fear actually taking any stand which might force them to back their positions with actions.

 

It is highly unlikely that the Western leadership really has been so badly mislead and ill-informed that they actually believe that the Iranian offer has any validity at this late date. The Iranians are once again playing the Western leaders for foolishly becoming accomplices in the Iranian drive to set themselves up in a position to be able to produce a series of nuclear devices in rapid order taking less than two months with their first device ready within a matter of mere weeks. The Iranians feel that the western leaders are willing to play the part of fools mainly because they have been given signals by the administration of President Obama that the President wishes to avoid any possibility of a conflict and is willing to turn a blind eye and permit Iran to proceed all the way to nuclear armaments as long as no blame can be cast upon him and the other leaders. President Obama and the other Western leaders will hold up the presentation from Prime Minister Netanyahu from years ago and pretend that by having the Iranians agree to inspections and stopping production of uranium to 20% enrichment a great agreement has been reached and the threat of a nuclear Iran has been successfully avoided. And should you be waiting for the mainstream media to report the reality that this agreement not to enrich uranium to 20% as what it is, an empty promise and a ruse, then you will end up just as poorly informed as will the Western leadership once Iran tests their first nuclear device. What should be the concern is exactly how and where will the Iranians test their first nuclear device. It is not as if their designs have not been proven as they most assuredly have been advised by the North Koreans, Chinese, and the Russians and their designs have likely been tested by these same nations on their simulation computers and proven to be proper designs. Actually needing to explode a nuclear device to test its design has not been a necessity for decades now and the Iranians most certainly have had access to simulation programs with which to test their designs and have even figured out the yields to within 10%.

 

Since they will not need to do an actual test, then the sole reason the Iranians would have for exploding a nuclear device would be to announce their accomplishment to the world. One might safely bet that with their device’s functionality guaranteed that the Iranians will announce their entry into the nuclear armed club by actually deploying a nuclear device either by having terrorists transport the device and detonate it on the desired target or by launching the device and striking one of the nations Iran considers to be their most serious of enemies. This would mean that their target of first resort would be either the United States or Israel. The argument for Iran striking Israel first is that such an attack would go extremely far in heaping prestige upon them throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds. The reason behind striking the United States first is somewhat more complicated but put simply is it would give almost the same prestige and would remove the larger strike back ability if they were to utilize their nuclear device or devices to generate EMP waves destroying much of the United States electronic infrastructure and other electronic controlled systems and items such as communications, many modern vehicles, diesel-electric trains, the entire electronic grid, computer controlled systems and countless other systems. Such an attack might render the United States cut off from even being able to contact their forces outside the country initially providing Iran with the necessary tie to launch numerous other attacks against secondary targets and other countries they may feel require neutralizing. As we have discussed previously, the Iranians have been training for an EMP delivery launch sequence for the past decade and have become quite adept and accomplished at doing so. They have even mastered launching such attacks off of cargo ships and barges such that they could launch such an attack from the oceans just off the coasts of the United States which would negate virtually all of the ballistic missile defenses from being effective at all. Despite this being something that has been discussed in Congress for years and by the military for even longer, the United States remains extremely vulnerable to an EMP attack such as the type Iran has been practicing and mastered the tactical methods in performing such a launch sequence. A nuclear armed Iran is a threat to far more than just Israel and do not let the United States leadership tell you different or ever let them ignore such a dire threat because to ignore such a threat is to invite such an attack. The Greek City States ignored King Leonidas who still took his three hundred Spartans of his personal guard and stood against the threat and held them at Thermopylae facing an enemy numbering close to half a million men for three days. Those three days resulted in saving the entirety of the Greeks from falling and guess who their enemy was. That’s right, it was the Persians, the very same that today we call Iran for reasons that are interesting to research as well but will wait for another article.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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