Beyond the Cusp

February 23, 2015

Election Run-Up Potential Coalition Building and a System Gone Awry

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Israel, Prime Minister Netanyahu, Iran, NIAC, United States, Congress vs. President Obama

 

 

There are a number of crucial events and societal revelations all holding a great propensity to go awry traveling astray of their reputed paths and expectations. Yesterday a full-page advertisement was placed in the New York Times by a political non-governmental organization (NGO) called the National Iranian American Council (NIAC). This advertisement likely cost them upwards of $200,000 unless the New York Times welcomed the advertisement to such a degree as to offer NIAC a discounted price, something we are unable to prove such actually transpired but decided it was worth mentioning the possibility. The NIAC nonprofit NGO has been perceived to represent the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei (Persian: علی حسینی خامنه‌ای‎) being his spokesman in the United States using whatever medium they feel will achieve the most influence reaching the targeted people be they in the White House, members of Congress, the public in general or even a targeted audience. The audiences targeted by this advertisement were the people in the United States government, influential people from the public and even the public in generally or at least those who read the New York Times. This advertisement attacked Israeli Prime Minister coming to speak before a joint session of the United States Congress, and accused Speaker of the House John Boehner of “siding with a foreign leader” against the elected leader of the United States, President Obama, whose efforts have placed the P5+1 on the “verge of a diplomatic victory that will prevent war and prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.” This advertisement targeted the growing divide between President Obama with the Republicans as represented by Speaker of the House Boehner and by association with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu with whom the President has huge disagreements over the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This disagreement is merely the latest uproar between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu. It was this split between the President and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the American people’s expressed exhaustion with having American troops fighting what appear to be senseless wars all across the Middle East and gaining no advantage nor reaching a more peaceable relations that NIAC President Trita Parsi stated in a press release that, “The U.S. and its closest allies are on the brink of a historic deal that will both prevent an Iranian bomb and war with Iran, and Congressional hawks are orchestrating political stunts with foreign leaders to try to kill it. The American people do not want another senseless military adventure and certainly don’t consider Benjamin Netanyahu to be their commander in chief.” This was added in order to take aim at the suspicions that the Islamic world believes the rest of the world also suspects the Jews generally and the Israelis in particular of possessing far too much influence over the United States governance.

 

One day earlier, on Saturday , a senior figure in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Mujtabi Du Al-Nour, threatened that Tel Aviv could be destroyed “in ten minutes” if Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities. He further claimed that the Iranian rockets can reach the heart of Tel Aviv within six or seven minutes, “even before the rockets of the Zionists reach us.” This was simply additional bluster by Iranian military leadership from within the IRGC elite units touting weapons superiority over the Israeli weaponry. As much of the Iranian systems are produced by them and within Iranian borders, this makes assessing the effectiveness of their weapon systems impossible; but if previous records and ability to produce systems with equal or superior abilities against Israeli weapon systems, such attempts are next to impossible. Often these type statements are made with the intention of impressing their own people just as much if not more than it is to be taken as an actual threat from the Iranians. That Iran has thousands of missiles and nearly countless rockets capable of being launched and reaching Tel Aviv is a valid threat and not any different from Israeli estimates of the Iranian capabilities. Israel has been made aware of the extent of their level of competence and expertise. The question is whether or not the Iranians would place weapons of mass destruction (WMD) atop these weapons and if so how many such warheads they would utilize and if so exactly which variety and in what numbers. Of course such determination is only important if Israel would resort to replying with weapons of mass destruction in return and if Israel has decided to answer chemical weapons, biological weapons and nuclear weapons using same kind of weapons. Should the Israeli plan be to simply respond to any attack utilizing WMDs of any variety, be it chemical, biological or nuclear, the Israeli response would come in the form of a nuclear response. Such a response should be made known before there is any such assault from Iran and thus after an exchange of fire the Iranians cannot claim they did not understand how Israel might respond.

 

Then there are the coming Israeli elections and the forming of a coalition and thereby name the Prime Minister and set government policies. The fact that the likelihood that current Prime Minister Netanyahu will be called upon to make the next ruling coalition is only disputed by the polls being touted by the media which continues to depict the race as close between Netanyahu’s Likud Party and the combined ticket of Labor with Hatnua and having a shared Prime Ministership between Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Hertzog. The media has claimed there is the threat of horrific evils should Netanyahu and the Likud win and the combined ticket of Hertzog and Livni ended up in the opposition. There was a report which claims that a senior source in an article in Arutz Sheva titled Senior Source: Bibi Plans Gov’t with Labor, Haredim has informed the media that Prime Minister Netanyahu plans on forming a Unity Government with his initial coalition by inviting the Labor/Hatnua parties along with Shas to form the government and lock out Jewish Home and the other religious Zionist parties. Such a coalition would result in the complete capitulation to whatever President Obama would demand of Israel concerning the formation of an Arab state using the 1949 Armistice Lines as the new borders and a sharing of Jerusalem. This would be accepted by Netanyahu as a result of making such a coalition as not accepting the formation of an Arab state utilizing whatever President Obama would demand as the main parties forming the coalition would be Labor/Hatnua which would hold the coalition to fulfilling their main concern, the forming of an Arab state as President Obama desires and along the Green Line, also called the 1967 lines or the 1949 ceasefire armistice lines and named by Israeli United Nations Abba Eban as the Auschwitz Borders as he predicted that Israel returning to the borders as defined before the Six Day War would leave Israel indefensible against another combined Arab assault. This, if it proves true, will mean that Bibi Netanyahu, another IDF veteran from an elite group and as well respected for his military service as was former Prime Minister Sharon very well might be heading to making another unilateral disengagement just as was performed by Sharon with Gaza except this time the area to be gifted to the Arab terrorist groups will have easy ability from the overlooking Judean Hills to launch rockets directly into Tel Aviv and the heart of Israeli society targeting well over three-quarters of Israeli population, business, industry, power generation and virtually everything else one might imagine including the nuclear reactor at Dimona. The only reason which we have been able to put together as to why Prime Minister Netanyahu would form such a government is in order to attack Iran with the backing of the entire government and the people as such an assault may be required once Israel reads and fully understands the ramification and realities of the world once President Obama with the backing of the P5+1 default giving Iran a green light to attain breakout existence and making Iran a threshold nuclear state capable of producing nuclear weapons at their choosing with merely a two or three week period to reactivate the hardware required to make the ninety percent enriched uranium and producing two bombs a week within eight to ten weeks. In order to prevent Iran from having such ability in the present time Israel would be required to destroy the nuclear sites within Iran and to do so and repeat doing so each time Iran rebuilds their nuclear weapons production stations. This would mean that information which Israeli intelligence has gathered is so convincing of how dire the situation is as a result of the feckless negotiating by President Obama such that even Tzipi Livni would realize that before returning to negotiations with Mahmoud Abbas about the formation of a poisonous state in Judea and Samaria the situation with Iran will need to be defused otherwise that threat would make any concessions impossible. Benyamin Netanyahu making such a broad and diverse coalition would only make such reasonable if a combined and unified nation is required for the situation Israel is facing and both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Rivlin have seen and discussed the situation and already reached their conclusions and planned for the making of a Unity Government. That Prime Minister is considering forming a unity government with Labor can only mean we are on the verge of an existential war which will require a united nation and all-inclusive governance.

 

The final event is the finalizing whatever agreement is in the workings between the P5+1 and Iran over the Iranian uranium enrichment and nuclear weapons system. President Obama has been working on finding some slight of language which will permit him to sign a treaty for the United States and enforce said treaty without receiving the approval by the Senate. President Obama has had his advisors, czars and other appointees assisting in the making and signing of a treaty putting it into effect establishing the international application without fulfilling the requirements for making a treaty or agreement between the United States. Such an agreement very well may force Israel’s hand and have Israel leading a coalition of the willing which would possibly include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states all of whom are petrified with fear and very well may be willing to even join an organized resistance against Iran and even allow said alliance to be organized around and led by Israel. This may be the near future should Iran be permitted to retain assembled and not required to disassemble her nineteen-thousand centrifuges of which a sizeable number of these centrifuges are their latest version and they are six times more capable than their older models. It is very likely possible that Iran is simply waiting for the end of negotiations and likely to blow off reaching any agreement and immediately start their dash to produce a nuclear arsenal. Once the negotiations have been permitted and accepted as the manner of addressing the limitation of Iran thus preventing the Iranian governance and military from attaining nuclear breakout, that allows Iran to easily start making nuclear bombs and stocking an entire arsenal. The guarantee being proffered by the United States that they would be capable of detecting any moves by Iran in time to prevent their making nuclear devices is on shaky ground as proven by the United States having missed catching the Soviet Union, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea and South Africa from reaching nuclear breakout becoming a nuclear armed power and a member of the nuclear club, a club which is steadily losing its exclusivity.

 

The near future is appearing to be exciting enough to give even the most optimistic of us reason to pause and even to stumble before regaining our balance while observing the earth losing its balance. Meanwhile anti-Semitism is once again spreading across Europe and the call is once again blaming the Jews for the world’s ills. The difference this time is the Jew is the state of Israel. The Middle East is heating towards a boiling point and may explode very soon. Iran is still financing and arming terrorists worldwide. Iran has even gotten into the business of arming and financing Sunni terrorists such as Hamas. Talking about Sunni terrorists, there is a new Sunni terrorist group called ISIS (or IS) which is gaining recruits from the world over and also is being reinforced by other treacherous Sunni terror groups joining their front including one of the larger terror groups in Libya and from Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad and along the Muslim/Christian divide in western Africa, Boko Haram. Meanwhile Iraq has split into three states, the Shiite south being protected by a loose alliance of the United States and Iran while the north is becoming a Kurdish run and protected state which is also receiving some aid from the United States and even being further armed by Iran as well and between them in the Center of Iraq and slowly expanding is ISIS. The United States is also assisting in the fight against ISIS in Syria where the government of Bashir Assad is fighting for its life with aid coming from Hezballah, Iran and air support from the United States who are also presumably attempting to remove Assad. Confused enough yet? Well, try this on for size, Israel is loosely allied with Saudi Arabia and Egypt against ISIS and also may be developing an above the table alliance against ISIS with Jordan. Will wonders ever cease? Add to this the fact that the United States President is working against Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and definitely Israel. The final relationship has deteriorated to the point that President Obama had begun to attack the Prime Minister of Israel claiming that he is attempting to disrupt the negotiations with Iran just as President Obama has almost completed the terms of the United States surrender which Europe appears to be satisfied will not destroy Europe immediately. The entire mess reminds me of the song Eve of Destruction by Barry McGuire of the video below.

 

 

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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February 7, 2015

What ISIS Jordanian Pilot Barbarity Means for Humankind

 

While the United States was debating which retread political sloganeering to rally around for the next two years and the White House was deciding how next to interfere in Israeli politics and Egypt faced another terror menace in the Sinai and much of the world continued attempting to ignore the greatest threat to advancing humanity called ISIS, one leader depicted exactly how all of us should have reacted to the most barbaric sign of human regression since Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were plaguing mankind with their versions of barbarity, namely Jordanian King Abdullah II. His speech was not the most eloquent and did not draw upon high sounding words or propose great sweeping plans; his reaction was visceral, his anger tangible, and his resolve absolute. The man spoke of action and he then mobilized a nation unifying them behind his resolve to strike back at the evil that is ISIS. He ordered an immediate reprisal by the execution of two terrorists who sat on death row in Jordan, one of whom ISIS had bargained to exchange for the Jordanian pilot despite having already murdered him. Then on Thursday King Abdullah II visited the mourning tent of the fallen pilot, Lt. Muath Kassasbeh, which quickly escalated into a pro-war rally, with young men pledging their “blood and soul” to wage war against ISIS. There have been rumors that the King plans on leading airstrikes personally, though this is unlikely as though he is a skilled and able pilot, his experience is in rotary winged craft such as the Cobra in which he was trained when enrolled in the United Kingdom’s Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst in the 1980’s. Where the brutality by ISIS was intended to intimidate pilots from the coalition currently striking ISIS largely from the air, the effect on the nation of Jordan has been the opposite as the King has taken the lead and the nation has rallied behind him. King Abdullah II has a long and storied experience of hands-on training and working with the Jordanian military and is well respected amongst the officers and men. He previously commanded Jordanian Special Forces and has often flown himself on inspections of the military and situations around the nation.

 

The releasing Wednesday of satellite images of the pilots’ homes and an offer of a 100 golden-dinar-bounty by ISIS was intended to threaten other Jordanian pilots causing them to defect or at least refuse to fly further missions. After the video was released showing the gruesome fiery death of Jordanian Pilot Lt. Muath Kassasbeh, the Jordanian response has been exactly the opposite as one group of pilots overflew Lt. Kassasbeh’s village after returning to Jordanian air space after flying sorties against ISIS positions in Syria. This was just more evidence that the mood in Jordan has turned from slowly growing resistance against Jordanian missions in the coalition to one of total war footing to avenge this wrong done against every Jordanian, especially her pilots. The King showed his support for the pilot and his origins in the Bedouin community as he donned the traditional red Bedouin kefiyah passing on his message of tangible empathy with their pain when addressing the nation thus pledging the nation to stand in unity to avenge this national challenge. During King Abdullah II visit to the family’s grieving tent, Mohammed Kassasbeh, the pilot’s cousin, declared his desire to join Jordan’s military stating, “Muath was not the first martyr and will not be the last martyr for this country. We are at war and we are all prepared to fight.” His reactions were simply another piece of evidence of the changed mood in Jordan which has rallied behind the King and against ISIS.

 

Signaling what may be the next step in the Jordanian newly declared war with ISIS, says Jawad Anani, a Jordanian senator and former foreign minister, stated, “The Islamic State declared war on Jordan, its pilots, and security. We are going to see a military escalation, and the dispatch of ground forces is the next logical step.” Jordanian State media has run some stories indicating such a move possibly to gauge public sentiment and degree of backing for such a move. The potentially troubling reality is that over one-thousand-five-hundred Jordanians are estimated to have joined ISIS with dozens having risen to leadership positions. This provides ISIS with detailed intelligence of Jordanian society, its military and potential security weaknesses. These Jordanian volunteers within ISIS are suspected of assisting in the recent revelation of the names and even home addresses of Jordanian military pilots. Reactions on both sides of this now critical divide will prove telling over the coming weeks. Still, these events are making for an unusual pairing of anti-ISIS forces as Jordan and King Abdullah II have not had the best relations with Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad yet both find themselves opposing ISIS though it would be foolish to expect any cooperation between the two countries or their militaries. It may have been partially due to the perception that ISIS was opposed to Syria and al-Assad which caused some Jordanians to join ISIS though that may be giving these volunteers too much credit for their knowledge of the political realm as they may simply have been drawn to join ISIS for the same vainglorious reasons that other youthful recruits have done so.

 

Where the Jordanian heated response will likely provide some additional force to the fight against ISIS, Jordan alone will not be sufficient to turn the tide against them all that much faster. Much will depend on whether Jordanian troops are injected into the fight on the ground, the component which is sorely needed if ISIS is to be degraded and defeated with any alacrity. The best of situations would have included other nations, especially the members of the GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council) led by Saudi Arabia, which had made gestures not long ago of their desire to include Jordan amongst its members, signaling their intentions to join Jordan in their efforts and also joining Jordan in the denunciations of the barbarity shown by ISIS in their burning alive of the Jordanian pilot. Such has not been the case and by all initial indications, the remainder of the Sunni world remains mostly asleep and blissful in their ignoring of the threat posed by ISIS.

 

The remainder of any efforts to crush ISIS will unfortunately fall upon a leaderless Western coalition which appears to be paralyzed waiting for someone to take the lead. The obvious leader would normally have been the United States but alas the President is too full of waging his war on the Republicans to bother with saving the world from the barbarian at their gates. Much of President Obama’s actions, such as his hypocritical denunciations of the Judeo-Christian world for their barbarity of six to fifteen hundred years ago as a reason to disqualify them from passing judgment on any barbarity being waged against the world currently during his speech delivered at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington D.C. this past week, tend to equate historical shortcomings of Christianity with similar barbarisms committed today in the name of Islam. With Washington asleep at the switch, can the world honestly expect anybody else to step up and take the lead and join Jordan in what may prove to be the beginning of the singular greatest challenge of the coming century? If such a national leader exists, please have them hurry as the world awaits its savior despite the probability that whoever steps forward will more likely be pilloried as a wild, warmongering hooligan than hailed as the potential new leader of the civilized world. By all appearances, the old powers of civility, that would be the members of the European Union, the great moralizers when it comes to Israel, the United States, and especially the exceptional positions taken in the last few years by the Canadians, apparently are content to quake in fear that Russia might turn its ravenous gaze in their direction to worry about the growing menace in the heart of the Middle East. The other potential leadership might come from Israel except that such a move would be more likely to band together the forces of the Arab and Muslim worlds to stand with ISIS than to stand against ISIS.

 

The problem is that many in the Middle East view ISIS as a problem between Syria and Iraq and their allies Iran and Hezballah than as a threat to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt or the rest of the GCC membership, thus they are content to sit on the sidelines as much as possible hoping that ISIS and the Iranian axis will beat each other to death and thus remove them as viable challenges in the future. The problem with such a view is there is just as much a possibility that Iran will come out the winner of the struggle against ISIS and in the process cement their influence and domination of the areas surrounding Saudi Arabia and her GCC allies and in a position to strangle their oil trade. Iran with its Houthis allies now taking the preeminent position in Yemen are now also threatening to seize control of the mouth to the red sea and thus be in a position to block all sea traffic passing through the Suez Canal which would deliver the deathblow to the Egyptian’s fragile economic situation. Should Iran control both the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, they would have a complete stranglehold on the Gulf oil kingdoms and all trade between Europe and Asia by controlling the southern exit from the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With Iran threatening such complete control over the maritime trade routes, especially those of oil and Euro-Asian trade routes, they could quickly bring the world to its knees within weeks. Further, combining this with their land hegemony including Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, they would also block the major land routes between Europe and Asia. The main stumbling block may currently be ISIS but they will not be able to withstand a full on assault by Iran, especially once Iran completes their negotiations with the west in March and retain their supposed right to enrich Uranium. That is the sole item they need to ensure they acquire from the negotiations with the P5+1 (United States, France, United Kingdom, Russia, China and Germany) over their nuclear program; and if they succeed, then G0d help us all.

 

The current sticking point appears to be over the numbers of centrifuges that Iran will be permitted to keep operationally and interconnected as the United States was initially pressing for hundreds while Iran has demanded the full nineteen-thousand as well as the right to continue research into even more advanced centrifuges and the right to produce and substitute them as they become available. The initial approval for Iran to retain their ability for the continuation of their research into even higher speeds and greater yield potentials from their centrifuges and the implementing the newer and higher capacity centrifuges replacing older models as they become available has all the appearances of being a done deal. Recently Secretary of State Kerry allowed to slip out the negotiating prerogatives of the United States when he stated that the United States would continue to present their positions and those that the Iranians balked on or rejected would simply be ignored and the next point brought forward for discussion. The implication was that the United states desired a deal, any deal, to such an extent that they are willing to forego any and every demand and restriction they had sought just so a deal would be attained by the fast approaching March 24 deadline. This mention of the latest surrender by the United States and their intention to surrender all the way to a deal, if that was what was required, leaves those hoping that the United States had actually intended to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear breakout point without any real restrictions to their achieving nuclear weapons production, presumably before anybody being able to detect their doing so, let alone actually taking measures to prevent such an occurrence, now must prepare for the world with a nuclear armed Iran.

 

The United States default position now appears to rely completely on deterrence and to have surrendered on prevention of a nuclear armed Iran. Does anybody honestly believe that Iran would not announce their breakout to nuclear weapons nation by dropping two or three tactical nuclear devices of limited yields onto ISIS positions in order to bring their threat to a halt while letting the rest of the nations in the area be stunned into submission. That would simply be the starting gun on nuclear proliferation across the entire Middle East with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and who knows who else is racing to gain nuclear parity with the Iranians as quickly as they are able. After the entire Middle East and North Africa attain nuclear weapons capability, how long before somebody uses their nuclear weapons to preemptively strike another nation or clandestinely provides a nuclear device to terror entities for delivery anywhere in the world. That is the future which is rapidly approaching and this will only be further facilitated as claims will initially be made that nuclear weaponizing the military was a necessity in order to prevent the spread of ISIS which then becomes prevent the spread of who next and then after that what happens. This could be made less of a possibility if only somebody from the Western world would stand up and take the lead as the United States is in permanent surrender mode for the time being. That much should have become evident by now, so who wants to take the lead until the world comes to their senses, if it ever does?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 3, 2014

The Coming Iran Nuclear Deal

 

During the Meeting this week between Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and United States President Obama in the White House the subject of the Iranian nuclear talks with the P5+1 (Five permanent UNSC members; United States, Russia, China, Britain and France; plus Germany) was said to be one of the major topics discussed. This is probably as good a lead to this story which was supposed to have been resolved to a greater deal almost six months ago but was pushed off until the end of November when no middle ground appeared possible. This was made possible by the clause in the previous partial agreement where sanctions on Iran were loosened in exchange for Iranian promises to state there were Iranian promises, exactly what those promises were defined to be depended on whom one asked, where the last part of that agreement allowed for it to be used as a resting place for the talks if no further progress were accomplished simply by agreeing to extend that letter of agreement for an additional six months of negotiations, an extension which could be enacted almost forever off into the future through repeated extensions. When this clause was first revealed it became obvious that the interim agreement was simply a way of allowing the parties to claim progress without necessarily making any progress. So, for the time being extending the previous agreement will have to serve as progress until the end of November. So, are we to expect another six month extension or will actual progress be reach in time?

 

The negotiations have appeared to be all but moribund with the two sides appearing to have been unable to move any closer together though one might get the feeling that that could change as the deadline approaches. There have been signs from the White House that a breakthrough may be lurking out on the horizon that we will just have to wait and see how negotiations play out. It is almost as if President Obama might be pleading to Iranian President Rouhani to please not make Obama compromise again in order to reach a deal as he may be willing to do exactly that, but not before the mid-term elections, and that is the reason for delaying the extension of the previous agreement such that the six month delay put the next deadline comfortably a few weeks beyond the mid-term election which provides sufficient time to offer American surrenders on one point after another on the way to near complete capitulation without making an all-at-once bombshell shock and awe collapse all too evident. We can expect the first inklings of the potential for a deal right before the mid-term elections with everybody being very tight-lipped claiming that it is too early and the situation for too volatile and delicate to make public exactly what the promising signs may be. This is the perfect we are on the way to historic agreement without having to give recognition that this historic agreement will be the ending of almost all sanction over the ensuing months in exchange for kind words and meaningless gestures all of which will culminate in the ending of the sanctions as they will have proven inadequate to prevent the new nuclear power on the block as it will be made known that Iran has reached the point of breakout and may already have acquired a nuclear weapons arsenal despite all the efforts, inspections and agreements which were supposed to have prevented exactly that from reaching fruition. There will be the requisite handwringing and regrets over the inability to have reached an accord in time to prevent Iranian nuclear weapons but that is no longer possible and the job at hand will be one of containment in order to prevent Iran using its nuclear weapons as a threat while also attempting to prevent the rest of the nations across the Middle East and into Northeast Africa from stampeding towards developing their own nuclear arsenals as their deterrents and as protection against the Iranian nuclear weapons.

 

The initial efforts after the realization that all efforts had failed exactly as warned by Israeli intelligence reports and the repeated admonitions by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu that Iran was approaching the doorstep of entering the nuclear armed nations of the world and that President Obama’s actions and drawing negotiations out indefinitely into the future was simply facilitating the Iranian nuclear program and allowing it to reach its final goal of nuclear weapons and the industry to continue to produce additional warheads to their arsenals. The focus once it has been established that Iran has become a nuclear armed nation will be aimed at dual targets; the first will be the prevention of Saudi Arabia and Egypt from also attaining nuclear weaponry and the second to force the Israelis to surrender their nuclear weapons as the initial step to convincing Iran to also destroy their nuclear weapons, neither of which is likely. The first nation to follow Iran into the nuclear armed nations house will be Saudi Arabia though they will not necessarily have developed the necessary infrastructure to produce further weapons on their own as their initial weapons will have been provided them clandestinely by Pakistan as has been their standing agreement ever since the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear program allowing them to follow India in becoming a nuclear power and retaining the so-called balance of power between the two rivals. Following Saudi Arabia will most probably be Egypt and Turkey though the order of which will be the first between the two is unclear.

 

Once it has become evident that Iran has attained nuclear weapon status, the next stage will be working out some agreement limiting their arsenal size and opening up their facilities for inspection to assure they are abiding by any agreements to limit their production of nuclear warheads and the systems with which to deliver them over the entire globe. The rapid development of longer and longer stage rocket system with Iran long having ballistic weapons capabilities has presented a viable threat though it is presumed they have yet to have developed a reliable ICBM (inter-continental ballistic missile) which would allow for targeting the United States from within Iran. The development of a reliable and accurate ICBM may still be beyond Iranian capabilities but such capability is not that far off and like nuclear weapons, where there is the will, there is a way and Iran will assuredly reach that goal over time. Their lack of such a weapon at current times does not mean that the United States is perfectly safe from any Iranian nuclear weapons threat. Iran has allies who would gladly act as forward launching facilities placing all of the United States within range of their largest ballistic missiles should they succeed in placing them with their allies in South and Central America. Even without such staging, the Iranians have developed and perfected the ability to launch their two-thousand-mile range missiles from specially modified cargo vessels, an ability they have practiced launching from the Caspian Sea. These developments have been accomplished in some part by the assumption, erroneous as it has proven to be, that Iran did not have the scientific knowledge base to have accomplished the numerous weapons systems they have claimed to have accomplished and placed into production, but such an assumption is a dangerous thought process and may result in proving the admonition against underestimating the capabilities of one’s enemies. What the exact price will be for the United States and the world will be required to pay but we can be assured it will not be a cheap and inconsequential price.

 

It can only be assumed that another consequence of Iran becoming a nuclear armed nation will not only cause their adversaries in the Middle East to rush to attain a balance of power but it can be expected that there will be allies of Iran with whom they will share their bounty and among those nations we will assuredly find North Korea. Adding in Syria and Hezballah and we are starting to spell out a scenario which resembles many of the models for Armageddon. There will be those who will point to this failure to prevent a nuclear armed Iran as just one more proof that President Obama had only one goal and that was to disempower the United States and her closest friend, Israel, while setting the world ablaze with revolutions and the redrawing the map of the world and the balances of powers within. This would be just the goal an anti-colonialist would imagine as their life’s goal, to create a multi-polar world where the United States would merely be one of the equals amongst the rest of the primary powers within the world. This was first evidenced when President Obama tasked NASA with a new primary goal of imparting a sense of accomplishment and partnership in the Muslim World as without whom the space program would have been impossible. Their job-one was not any missions to Mars, or to the outer planets or even the moons of Jupiter or Saturn, nor was it to identify and set in place current plans and develop better future plans for dealing with near Earth objects and Earth crossing objects. The world is becoming a strange and interesting place and thus our times have also entered those strange, complex and interesting, even better and more disconcerting than the world in the ancient Oriental curse. What more could one ask of the first President to receive the Nobel Peace Prize simply for getting elected and who described his election to the highest office on the planet promising that, “I am absolutely certain that generations from now, we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on Earth. This was the moment – this was the time – when we came together to remake this great nation so that it may always reflect our very best selves, and our highest ideals.” Well, I guess we can only conclude this article by again using a quote from a man once said to be so humble and reserved, Barack Obama, “We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek.”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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