Should Ukraine be Defended by the United States and Other Threats

The Constitution of the United States defines the numerous means of forming treaties and their required ratification. Once these definitions have been completed, the treaty is to be treated as the “Law of the Land.” Numerous, if not the vast majority, of treaties entered into by the United States went through a ratification by the United States Senate, after which, they would even supersede the Constitution itself. One such treaty is the December 5, 1994, <a href=http://www.pircenter.org/media/content/files/12/13943175580.pdf> “Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances…”</a> whose beginning is quoted below.

• 1. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the Independence and Sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine.
• 2. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
• 3. The United States of America, the Russian Federation, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine…

Apparently, should Putin violate the Ukrainian border, not only are the United States and Britain being required to respond and defend the Ukraine, but Russia is also under treaty obligation to defend the very borders they are violating. As far as obligations; the United States, by her own Constitution, is required to come to the defense of the Ukraine defending against any aggressions by Russia or any other invasion. Fortunately, a military defense is not specifically required, thus mere economic sanctions would satisfy the requirements of the treaty even if ignoring the intended sentiment. In the end, it would be so wonderful if the media, all of them, would simply inform the American people of the pertinent facts and follow their reaction, which is guaranteed to be vehemently opposed by the minority. So, would the Americans demand action in defense of the Ukraine should Putin send his troops across their border; and if so, to what extent, sanctions, non-military aid, military equipment or actual American troops (only airstrikes or including ground assault forces)?

Biden Unable to Locate Putin

This is as if President Biden is not facing grave challenges. Well, actually he is clueless on the national difficulties but probably does face the “gravest” of threats. It is saddening watching the United States slowly spiraling towards the drain seemingly unable to take a true direction supported by the people. There appears to be a disconnect between the apparent direction taken by the government and the will of the people. The people are done with Covid, back at work unless throttled by government, and tired of foreign military entanglements. Yet, we bet given the entirety of treaty obligations, their Constitutional importance and their legal weight; they will reluctantly insist on military aid as a minimal first step, followed by air support and even troops if required. Perhaps we will see as the debate begins if anyone will stand for the truth and reality of the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances.

Beyond the Cusp

Another Useless European Gesture

 

According to reports by the BBC, Britain, France, and Germany, the three European nations who took part in the negotiations with Iran have warned Iran that any further breaches of the agreement could force them to act and leave the agreement. Such an eventuality presumably would cause the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Such a move is said to make it possible for the United Nations to reapply economic and other sanctions against Iran as well as the European Union or at least Britain, France and Germany. Some reports have actually appeared anxious worried that such a collapse of the JCPOA would free Iran to restart the entire nuclear program. Additionally, within days Hezballah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened to start sending terrorists into Israeli territory. While interviewed by Lebanon’s Massir magazine, Nasrallah was quoted stating, “The enemy is right now in a defensive position. Once we were constantly on the defensive, now we are threatening the enemy, not the opposite. We will enter the occupied territory of Palestine.” These are two related facts which should be seen as one entirety and not as separate in any way. Hezballah does not act independent of their Iranian masters. This will be escalated and was meant to be a shot across the bow warning Britain, France, and Germany not to withdraw from the JCPOA or be blamed for instigating a war in the Middle East, or should we call it by its real name, yet another war with Iran as the instigator in the Middle East.

 

Hassan Nasrallah

 

It has been part of the Iranian world policy, you upset Iran and Hezballah will start a large-scale confrontation with Israel unless Iran is further appeased. Iran wears the JCPOA as an accessory by which it can frighten Britain, France, and Germany, and the European Union into any act of appeasement to what Iran fancies. The Iranian threat has been that they are forced by that eternal evil, ever ignorant and wild cowboy in Washington D.C., President Trump, to bend and even break specific parts of the JCPOA as Iran no longer felt constrained by the treaty if the Americans were no longer constrained from sanctioning Iran. The catch for all involved has been that Iran was never restrained by the JCPOA as we have reported repeatedly (see here, here, here and here). We also have shown that Iran was not even following the weak restrictions they claim that they had agreed upon and only not complying with those extreme measures that the United States claimed were included and that they had never agreed to place them in the agreement. Simply stated, Iran has been producing whatever weapons they desire and researching at full speed further nuclear weapons to add to their arsenals.

 

The real question is not so much are Britain, France, and Germany going to depart the JCPOA, but is whether or not they will join with President Trump in reapplying sanctions on Iran and end their comfy little trade deals by which they were making millions of dollars. One can blame the European powers for trading with Iran, but how else were they going to benefit from the billions of dollars lavished upon Tehran and the Mullahs by President Obama. Should Britain, France, and Germany actually leave the JCPOA, the next big question is over sanctions and whether or not this signals they are willing to work with President Trump. If Britain, France, and Germany are unwilling to work with the United States on sanctioning Iran, then any such announcement concerning leaving the JCPOA is just empty rhetoric. But there would be more than Iran finally coming clean about their continuing to develop nuclear weaponry as fast as they could, there would also be the war Iran wound instigate, if not actually order, against Israel to punish the world for their insult and blaming Britain, France, and Germany for their aggressive actions.

 

As we stated above, Nasrallah does not act without permission and orders from Iran. That is why the threats from Nasrallah were expected and were expressions dictated from Tehran. Just to complete the quotes, Nasrallah further stated, “The balance has changed due to the Iranian revolution’s victory, which was begun by the blessed imam Khomeini and is continued by the blessed imam Khamenei. Today we have much better intelligence regarding what the Zionist entity is doing than we had in the past, from official sources as well as from unofficial sources.” This overt threat is actually a restating of the Hezballah threats and claims that they could take back the Galilee from her occupation whenever they decided the time had come. This threat needs also to be taken along with the recent Hezballah claims that stated, “Once we said that we could strike targets south of Haifa. Today, we can say that if Israel has sites south of Eilat, then we can also hit them. All of Israel is under the range of our missiles.” All of this bluster just because of the threat by European powers to leave a treaty which few if any of the participants ever intended keeping. Iran, under the JCPOA presumably was inspecting their own military installations and were to report any breaching of the agreement. Really? Who expected that to work at all?

 

Iran has treated the JCPOA as the fig leaf behind which their nuclear program never even felt a hiccup as was proven when Israel lifted tons of evidence from their secure Tehran bunker in one evening and transported it all to Israel (see image below). These were the final information required by President Trump to pull he United States from the JCPOA and reapply sanctions on Iran in an effort to have them come to the table and negotiate a new deal. Iran does not desire a new deal; they prefer the one they have and will wait for a new President of the United States to be elected and be reasonable with their needs. Should the three European powers also leave the agreement, it never was an actual treaty, then Iran could be facing the reapplication of the sanctions by Europe which would actually cause Tehran some serious headaches. The serious nature with which Iran has reacted with their having ordered a Hezballah threat on Israel is all the proof needed to assess the nature and threat on the JCPOA.

 

Netanyahu Displaying Iranian Nuclear Program Files Stolen from Tehran Bunker

 

Whether or not Israel should take the Nasrallah threat to heart and possibly take steps to respond will be determined by any information Israel has been able to garner. Over the last half a decade, Nasrallah was largely ignored as Hezballah was up to their ears in the Iranian backed wars in Syria and Yemen. There have been reports that many of the Hezballah operatives have since returned to Lebanon from their efforts supporting Iran. These operatives sent to Yemen and across the border to Syria were presumed to be training more than actually fighting yet, from intercepted casualty reports, the Hezballah members were performing much more than training than was admitted. These threats from Nasrallah should be taken seriously but tempered with intelligence of Hezballah movements of assets and terrorists placing them such that crossing the border appears likely. Israeli intelligence and aerial surveillance should take particular attention to any readying of Hezballah missiles and rockets. Such intelligence should be critically analyzed with specific attention to their Scud rockets and MLRV* units. The former, and its ilk, comprise the ability for Hezballah to strike at Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and the Dimona complex which would be primary targets in the initial round should they be seriously planning an assault upon the north. The MLRV with their rapid multiple rocket barrage capabilities is primarily used in supporting advancing forces by forcing the enemy to take cover and remain buttoned-up thus limiting their vision and ability to detect any attack or infiltration.

 

When it comes to terrorists, we are looking more at infiltration which could come from almost any front or direction. The most obvious would be across the fenced Lebanon border with Israel or, using the Syrian confrontation, entry could be attempted along the Golan Heights. Another option would be to enter through Gaza where allies such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad might assist or their people might carry out attacks for Hezballah to force a two-front confrontation upon Israel. The final entry points would be along the Israeli eastern lands bordering Jordan or the PLO/PA region west of the Jordan River. Israel will probably place their forces already in these positions to heighten awareness and be particularly sensitive to potential terror infiltrations. Israel might also redouble efforts at detecting and destroying tunnels under her borders to facilitate just such operations. The world need realize that this Hezballah threat is actually a threat coming directly from Tehran and should put most of Europe on notice that they have problems within their own countries which lie openly vulnerable to Iranian terror forces of the IRGC or Hezballah. This was not a threat made upon Israel for her presumed occupation of the Galilee but a warning to the world that moves made against Iran could be answered by terrorist forces in Lebanon as well as Iraq, Yemen and other supportive places. Europe should also take the precaution of seeking out any Iranian operatives who probably entered Europe as part of the waves of Middle Eastern and North African “refugees” they foolishly permitted entry. Many of the entering refugees were actually terror operatives and as Iran has the largest amount of control over these terrorists, even more than the Muslim Brotherhood, they could be activated and given targets within Europe to strike. Such strikes by terror operatives would target high profile locations very likely also tourist hot spots with intent to harm as many as possible. Israel is prepared largely while Europe is largely vulnerable. Israel will tread carefully until it is time to act, Europe would be best served to move with bluster intended to maximize the appearance of readiness. One last tip, the terrorists in Europe are most likely controlled through the IRGC or by Hezballah which means that your Lebanese immigrants just might be Hezballah plants. Be well advised Europe, after Israel you are the most inviting of targets along with the United States with a difference, Europe is far closer to their bases in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

*MLRV = Multiple Launch Rocket Vehicle

 

Netanyahu Success in Revealing Establishment Europe

 

Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu returned from his European trip with a few nice souvenirs from the gift shop, a hefty trip ticket, receipts, a few renewed memories and little else. His intended trip to Gay Paris, Merry olde London town and unified Berlin was to attempt to pry these leaders into joining United States President Trump by pulling their support from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This was going to be a tough sell as these nations are enriching their otherwise sagging economic outlook with what they believe will be substantial economic trade with Iran. Tiny little Israel, despite the fact of her economy being far greater than her size, does not have the purchasing power presently coming from Iran. The problem is that some of these trade items come under dual use equipment as they are utilized in the nuclear industry as well as in medical and other industries. Special blends of steel and aluminum, magnets and capacitors, strobes and filaments, microprocessors and integrated electronics can be used in various industries such as medical lasers, X-ray machines, MRIs and all forms of special equipment used across numerous industries as well as used in the nuclear industry for everything from reactors for power to nuclear warheads for power projection. This is what makes many forms of trade with Iran so potentially precarious.

 

The promise of good relations and a new market was the sole concern for the three M’s, Merkel, Macron and May. The rulers of France, Germany and Britain gave Netanyahu a warm and fuzzy cold shoulder. They refused to advise any changes to the JCPOA and definitely refused to withdraw from the agreement. Their claim was that their nations had given their word in good faith and to break their word was unthinkable. Really? Telling Israel that France, Germany and Britain were seriously concerned about their word being their bond was brazen audacity. We would try to count the times and ways that these three nations have reneged on promises to Israel and to the Jewish People but doubt such is really necessary. But Prime Minister Netanyahu should have known this before leaving which leaves one wondering why he even bothered to try other than to placate the left and be able to at least claim he gave it an effort. The trip may have been to inoculate himself from just another pointless politically motivated attack for pushing Europe away when, according to the critics, the European acceptance is necessary if Israel expects to have a future. Well, that is a nice concept providing you are backwards looking. The truth is that the future for Israel economically, politically, and societally is not looking to Europe and the past but to the future and upcoming nations such as India, China and the working democratic, free-enterprise nations in Africa and South America. But when there are those seeking to attack you, they will blame Netanyahu for the rejection by France, Germany and Britain but had he not approached them he would have been criticized for not going. It is the old you can fail by trying or fail by not trying, either way your failure will be attacked.

 

Israel Willingly Reaching Out to the World

 

The reality is that politically France, Germany and Britain wish Israel, and by Israel the Jewish People, would simply be overrun and removed from their consciences. They blame the Jews for surviving the persecution heaped upon them by Christians and the Greeks and Romans before Nazi Germany almost succeeded in Europe. These leaders will make nice statements and even provide security after each attack, but they believe that their future is to adapt and make their Islamic immigrants become good Europeans. The more likely result will be the Europeans with become nice Dhimmis in an Islamic centric society likely within the first half of this century or by the end at the longest. Imagine Britain under Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, France under Union for a Popular Movement leader Jean-François Copé or Germany under Alliance 90/The Greens Party leader Annalena Baerbock, all heavily pro-immigrant parties and candidates who see the future of Europe as reaching a working alliance with a large percentage of Muslim immigrants welcomed into the nation to replace the numbers of youth not being birthed by native Europeans. Germany (below 1.5 children per woman), France (hovering around 2.0 children per woman) and Britain (approximately 1.9 children per woman) all have reproductive rates below the 2.2 children per woman required to simply have replacement rate. This has been the plaguing problem, with the only reason that these rates are increasing is due to the high birth rates by incoming immigrants, thus since the early 1970’s Europe has been looking at a disappearing native population. This changing demographic has brought on a backlash of anti-immigrant political demographic which has been latched onto by the far right parties. The futures of the nations of Western Europe are being wagered on building their new nation largely upon immigrant populations. This will take them politically further and further from Israel politically and in policy. Israel need accept this reality and come to the realization that though Europe provides markets in the here and now, the future will not be in Europe, at least not in Western Europe. Israel would be better served to work with the former Warsaw Pact nations, assisting them in modernization and build relations with that sphere.

 

Israel has much to offer any nation in developments and new discoveries. These will produce trade relations with every nation willing to trade. As for political alliances, Israel should not be the beggar but rather offer free trade with those nations which whom we can have strong political relations and a shared political outlook. Israel should build relations with nations who are willing to be cooperative and not constantly joining those in the United Nations General Assembly and other institutions of the United Nations condemning Israel in a near constant basis. Israel should announce that her trade barriers would be lowered for those who support Israel and would be raised on those who choose not to defend Israel from undue slanders and denunciations within world bodies. Israel need stop going from nation to nation with their hands out begging for favors. Israel need simply take care of Israel and deal with favor with those who decide they wish to join Israel into the future. Those who desire or act to the detriment of Israel, well, who needs those who show Israel no favor. Every nation has the right to deal with those who befriend them and to avoid interactions with those who do not. Israel, as most nations will do, should trade with those willing to trade unless a nation is amongst those who denounce Israel at every turn. Israel need go forward by building alliances with nations willing to stand with Israel and move slowly but surely away from any which repeatedly join in denouncing Israel. Israel should not expect any nation to bend or act against their economic future to please Israel but on the other hand, Israel need not assist those nations who choose to work with those who threaten Israel as nations we cannot count amongst our allies. Israel should work with allies made and leave the others as neutral unless they prove otherwise, and then they should be shunned.

 

Israel cannot expect anybody to respect Israel more than Israel does herself. This is another lesson which the political class need learn and learn fast. If Israel acts as if she is unsure of what is rightfully hers, then how can Israel expect others to be more assured of such than is she? That is illogical at the start. The initial step in this strengthening of Israel and her stand within the community of nations is to act with assured firmness. Step one is to annex all of Area C from the Oslo Accords in which Area C was left under total Israeli control. The existing Palestinian Arabs who are residing within Area C are doing so illegally under the Oslo Accords. They should be required to sign a non-belligerence agreement signifying that they hold no support for terrorism and no ill will towards Israel and accept residing under Israeli Law. In exchange, they will be permitted to remain as legal alien residents. Those who refuse should be offered reasonable remuneration for their property and allowed to move into Area A or Area B. Once the screaming has dimmed to a dull roar, Israel should invite Mahmoud Abbas to sit down a make peace or lose Area B. We expect that he would balk and instead run immediately to the European Union and United Nations and get as many denunciations of Israel for seeking such a meeting under dire threat. Following such a response by political attack and attempted political ostracization, Israel should simply annex Area B and offer the Palestinian Arabs residing there the same option as those from Area C. Finally, the same procedure should be exercised with Area A, the world should expect the same result, and in the end, we could send Mahmoud Abbas to live in Paris with as many of the leadership as possible with the rest being allowed to leave for whichever Muslim nations will have them. Once Israel has established her eastern border as the firmly and originally promised Jordan River, she can move forward acting as if the world has finally come to grips with its original promises. Yes, there will be a period of adjustment and France, Germany and Britain will be generally put out, but sometimes nations need to do what they need to do. Israel does not exist to make the French, German or British people and governments happy, she exists to be the Jewish State and take whatever steps are necessary for her own future and survival. The façade of a peace process has gone on long enough and it is time to settle things and bring it all to an end. The proper end would be and should be that Israel is entitled to every inch of the lands promised her by the Mandate, by the League of Nations, by the Allied Powers of World War I (it is a very old promise) and by the United Nations who promised as much in Article 80 of their Charter. That is the reality and there really should be little if any argument about this. The Europeans and their World War I allies are aware of the promises, as is the Arab League and every Arab and Muslim nation. It is inscribed indelibly in the San Remo Conference, Treaty of Sèvres, the Mandate Agreements and numerous other places, thus ignorance really has to be willingly adopted. The time has long passed for the grievance mongers to be rejected and sent upon their way into the dustbin of history and Israel to take her place as a nation without question. Those who wish to recognize her may and those with problems may have their problems, these problematic countries should not act as an excuse to deny Israel her rightful boundaries. There were promises, an Arab state was already carved from 78% of the British Mandate, and there is no agreement that a second Arab state followed by a third and a fourth until all the Jews reside in a single building in Tel Aviv is required. The time has come to end the ruse and reveal it for what it is, the dream of politicians around the world to step-by-step disassemble the Jewish State and bring the life of the Jewish People to an end where they become a scattered few who live at the kindness of others. Never Again! That phrase should become the negotiating slogan as Israel takes that which is hers and makes it final. Never Again means that we will take the interlopers injecting their politics to Israeli detriment no longer. That time has arrived and it will not take much longer before Israeli politics catch up and this becomes a reality. Prepare for this and prepare your politics for this as the end of the ruse is coming.

 

Beyond the Cusp