Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?

 

We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.

 

So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.

 

Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.

 

 

The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.

 

 

We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

The Coming Deal that Iran Wrote

 

The defection of Amir Hossein Mottaghi, Rouhani’s public relations manager during his 2013 election campaign for President, removed any doubts or glimmers of hope that what was being acted out in Lausanne, Switzerland, nestled in the Alps, was an actual deal meant to deny Iran anything they desired and packaged it as an accomplishment. The crux of the problem is that the Iranians have neither desired nor needed any form of a deal as they always were and are going to do exactly that which best serves their purposes, and that is to build as many nuclear warheads and as many missiles on which to place those warheads and do so at whatever speed they desire. The warning signs have been everywhere for all to see. Even the French and the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) claim the deal is so pathetic as it does not limit or even begin to prevent the Iranians from proceeding forward to producing nuclear weapons nor does it address the concerns expressed recently by the IAEA, an agency notorious for being unable to prevent or even monitor any nation which has had any desire to attain nuclear weapons. When the IAEA is expressing serious concerns that the Iranians have kept much of their work and engineering work for the supplemental items to weaponized nuclear materials such as the triggering mechanisms, warhead design and other necessities concealed and has been reticent about reporting such activities, then there may be a serious problem. The IAEA reports claim that Iran has refused to come clean in any number of areas and that they suspect Iran has nuclear research and production sites which they have refused to report and may even have some of which the IAEA has no knowledge or information about and may reveal in time that the Iranians are running a parallel program intended solely to produce the required nuclear weapons materials such as highly enriched uranium and all other parts required for the manufacture of nuclear weapons thus allowing for Iran to negotiate a deal while producing nuclear weapons clandestinely.

 

Meanwhile every report out of Lausanne, Switzerland, has been another piece of the puzzle which is beginning to reveal an ugly reality. What is becoming evidenced this week is satisfying the worst fears of those watching the charade being carried out by the United States negotiating team which appears to be cheering and working for the Iranians and simply attempting to drag any unwilling partners along down the primrose path and producing a document replete with the appropriate signatures all signifying nothing. The Iranians have taken measure of President Obama and found him to be lacking in all ways. They have detected an empty suit which envisions himself as a great negotiator whose simple presence, even from behind the scenes, as so inspiring that others will bend to his will and he can win the day with virtually no effort. They have seen the man-child for what he truly represents, a narcissist with delusions of grandeur and of great moral and intellectual prowess unequaled in all fields and so full of himself that he cannot even begin to believe the reality that Iran has simply been going through the motions of negotiating and simply have been baiting the United States team, the same team which negotiated the agreements with North Korea as they became nuclear capable, manipulating their every response leading them to the exact point the Iranians desired with which they would continue their clandestine operations while also using their agreed upon centrifuges working in order to continue the façade of staying within the letter of the agreement. Iran has used the negotiations to their advantage all the while laughing at the ridiculous actions of President Obama and Secretary of State Kerry who have taken every word and action to heart and have never actually shown any intelligence or perceptive abilities all the while being largely led around by their noses going wherever the Iranians had wished to move them. As we have pointed to before, the French see the deal as weak and beyond the monitoring force’s ability to enforce. The IAEA will continue to never receive total access to the Iranian nuclear facilities thus never knowing definitively whether or not Iran is producing nuclear weapons behind their backs.

 

The Institute for Science and International Security was quoted in The Tower magazine having stated, “A deal that does not include Iran addressing the IAEA’s concerns about the past and possibly ongoing military dimensions of its nuclear program would undermine the verifiability of the deal, and thus the credibility of a comprehensive deal.” Their spokesperson was further quoted, “Fordo will remain open, and its centrifuges will spin.” As the information attained monitoring the news out of the negotiations revealed that it truly is a part of the deal that Iran may continue to utilize the Fordo facilities and continue to maintain six-thousand centrifuges at any given time by our latest information. Six-thousand centrifuges are a really large number for supplying fuel rods for the few reactors currently in use and thus one must conclude that Iran has measured the spines of the Western powers and found them to be lacking and thus capable of misleading themselves and their public into believing they had negotiated a good deal. The Iranians were likely convinced that they were negotiating with a pack of fools simply by how they reacted to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress by claiming they had Iran cornered and that the deal was as good as was possible all things being considered. Meanwhile, the IAEA had been sounding the warning bells trying to get anybody at the negotiating table in Lausanne, Switzerland to heed their concerns and realize that the deal they are debating is a complete and total lie as the Iranians have been dealing falsely and has no intentions of observing any limitations written into the deal and are making as many of the terms denoted in vague terminology such that there is potentially two manners in which one would be able to interpret the meaning and operate their centrifuges and other materials as freely as they wish. The truth of the matter is that the Iranians often were only capable of running their centrifuges at around forty to forty-five percent of capacity thus agreeing to around one-third of the units in use at any given time, so the six-thousand centrifuges turns out to be the number they use at any given time.

 

The claims by the French that the United States has spent much of the negotiations parroting the Iranian demands trying to make them more readily digestible for the remaining members of the P5+1 were pretty much validated by the defecting Amir Hossein Mottaghi. His relating the weakness displayed by the United States negotiating team also gives credibility to the claims made a couple of weeks ago by some Iranian dissidents that Iran had recently completed and already using a new unreported uranium enrichment site beneath the outskirts of Tehran. They explained the methods used to conceal its construction and how centrifuges were brought into the facility and assembled within the new laboratory and they claimed that the new site was recently completed and the cascades of centrifuges were tested and functioning well producing enriched uranium. The dissidents’ were dismissed as alarmists by the United States and dismissed as unreliable, pretty much as these same dissidents were dismissed when originally claiming that Iran was running secretive enrichment and other nuclear weapons related development which eventually proved valid producing these very talks.

 

But Iranian uranium enrichment is but the tip of the iceberg whose concern should be taken more seriously by the United States and the rest of the appeasing western nations. There is also the question of their rocket and missile research and their near completion of a true ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile) capable of carrying a nuclear warhead anywhere in the globe with relative accuracy. The definition of relatively accuracy is simply because with nuclear weapons, like horseshoes, often close is sufficient to score. This is one reason the difference between the super accurate United States missiles which were capable of striking their exact target missing it by no more than a couple of inches and their Soviet counterparts which had an accuracy of striking within twenty to thirty or even fifty yards really made little difference when talking about warheads which would lay waste to most of the targeted city. It has been proven by observing Iranian rocket and then missile tests that they have progressed from the simple rockets, which generally went where you pointed them and would strike more often than not within the country they were aimed at, though this might have proved more difficult when striking Israel due to her narrow profile, to large ballistic missiles which have ranges of up to three-thousand kilometers and striking within fifty kilometers of their intended target. Iran has recently claimed to have developed a cruise missile with a range of close to two-thousand kilometers and an accuracy of less than ten meters, an impressive level of accuracy. So there is this front which makes the Iranian development of nuclear weapons all the more ominous and threatening, especially with their continued chanting of, “Death to America”, and “Death to Israel.” These chants which have been a response to the policies of their government and the promises given to destroy these two main enemies and obstacles to a world dominated and ruled by the Iranian Mullahs.

 

This concept brings us to the last leg of the triad of threats posed by the Iranians, namely their ever more rapid attempts to control areas of the Middle East and their expressed desire to further their conquest across Europe. Additional to the Iranian conquest to becoming the leader of the entire Muslim world and spreading their form of Islam across Europe, they have a particular desire to vanquish the Greek islands in revenge for the Persians defeat at the hands of Alexander the Great. The Iranian eventual goal is perhaps the most difficult to believe and pertains to drenching the entire planet in a conflagration in order to speed up the arrival of the Messiah, the Twelfth Imam, who will climb from his hiding place in a well in Qom and lead the Iranians in the purification and conquest of all mankind. This sounds incredulous when one first contends with this Iranian belief that their savior has been hiding since childhood in a well to avoid being murdered by his enemies, the Sunni Muslims, and upon the world being bathed in fire and chaos will climb out from that very same well to lead in the Shiite conquest of the earth. Those who believe this concept are referred to as Twelvers for obvious reasons though I might have called them as duodenary dunderheads. This is perhaps partly the reason why many who have studied the leadership of Iran have posited the idea that deterrence is impossible as such a threat merely plays into their belief that the Twelfth Imam would then arise and lead them to their destined victory over all odds and adversaries, and that is truly frightening when one realizes that it is more likely that Iran is currently manufacturing nuclear warheads which are merely waiting to be married to their own ICBM and launched to the far corners of the globe and everywhere inbetween in order to bring on the salvation of the true believers. If this is not frightening enough to any sane individual, then I know not what might be.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Netanyahu Speech Coming Tuesday to be THE Speech

 

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to give his speech to those of the entire Congress with the backbone and wits to attend what President Obama, his administration, the leftist politicians in the United States, and most embarrassing, leftist politicians in Israel and is willing to withstand the withering barrage from the leftist media which will hopefully be easily over four-hundred-seventy-five who sit through the entire speech. There is planned a show of great lack of significance to show disregard and insult for Prime Minister Netanyahu arranged by the Congressional Black Caucus who decided their ire would be best served if they interrupted THE Speech by noticeably walking out in the midst of THE Speech as a sign of the racist nature of THE Speech. The media has harped on THE Speech claiming it is designed to destroy the United States Israel relations as if President Obama’s wrecking-ball relations and operational leaks of presumed privileged communications had not already set the stage for a mortally wounded relationship. Fortunately, once the United States occupant in the White House regains some manner of balance and diplomatically less caustic intent forming every interaction pertaining to Israel and her future I am sure the Israelis will gladly move ahead and simply never mention the injuries suffered the last six years and the potential bumps in the relationship yet to be suffered. Others in the media have accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of making THE Speech all about campaigning for retaining his term in office and being reelected by displaying the good relations he has with the United States by addressing a joint session of Congress. THE Speech has delivered the opponents of Prime Minister Netanyahu sufficient ammunition to shoot him for the next three or four or possibly a round dozen decades and the Israeli leftist media has loaded their weapons to their capacity and will keep the extra munitions for future use. But the politics being played in the United States are far less problematic than the politics being played in Israel.

 

In Israel THE Speech is the center of efforts to pillory Prime Minister Netanyahu claiming that he has destroyed the closest, greatest, most beneficial and friendly relationship any former or potentially future occupant of the White House that Israel will ever experience. Not to toss the entirety of the Israeli media under the bus, we must admit that there are some media sources and reporters, editorialists, anchors and talk show hosts along with bloggers who have supported the efforts by Prime Minister Netanyahu to sound the clarion bell alarms about the impending P5+1 agreement with Iran concerning their nuclear program which Iran claims is solely for civilian use in reactors present and planned for future development while Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and many other world leaders suspect is being utilized to develop and produce in an industrial manner nuclear weaponry. The most distressing of Israeli dissenters who are actively claiming that THE Speech will be the largest possible disaster which will destroy United States relations with Israel and forever cause animosity between the two nations are the two politicians who head the coalition of the Hatnua Party with the Labor Party which these most notorious post-Zionist politicians have mocked the voting public through their use of the misnomer of Zionist Camp, are Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak (Buji) Herzog. Their campaign has almost universally focused on defeating Prime Minister Netanyahu at all costs, and that includes the allowing Iran to attain the ability to fulfill their stated utmost goal to destroy Israel, or as they have referred to Israel, that one bomb nation. Tzipi Livni and Yitzhak Herzog have completely abandoned the unspoken rule for honorable campaigning which places things having direct effects on Israeli relations with the world, especially those relations with historically friendly nations, beyond the pale in any campaign while general theory or policy differences acceptable if handled by stating one’s positions and not direct attacks on actions being undertaken that have direct repercussions on sensitive relations or the future of the State of Israel. Their attacks claiming that THE Speech and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s entirety in office and every actions taken there as working to cause the isolation of Israel on the world’s stage and especially working to destroy relations with the United States and insulting directly President Obama by insisting on giving immediately rather than after the reaching an agreement with Iran before expressing reservations and accusations of reaching and allowing a bad deal which will permit Iran to become a breakout nuclear nation in Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opinion which will be stated in its purest essence as the central subject of THE Speech. As a matter of fact, THE Speech has become a central theme in their campaign and their drive to unseat and replace Prime Minister Netanyahu with their agreed upon sharing with Tzipi Livni taking the first two years and Yitzhak Hertzog assuming the Prime Ministership the final two years knows no bounds nor any restrictions breaking every accepted protocol which have served Israel since her founding on May 15, 1948.

 

So, if the dye is cast and the nuclear agreement a done deal, which simply has a few particulars left to erase the differences, then what is it that Prime Minister Netanyahu believes he can affect by making this apparently contentious appearance, against the better judgment and to the offence which President Obama has expressed, and delivering THE Speech? Perhaps THE Speech will serve its best possible scenario and sour the agreement forcing President Obama to take a new approach, an approach which does not necessarily mean war with Iran which is one of the favorite over-simplifications used by the media. Should that be the eventuality brought on by THE Speech it might lead where the Congress has already stated they intend to head should there not be an agreement reached by the end of March and bring serious, tight, extreme and crippling sanctions against Iran possibly even more stringent than those sanctions which originally brought Iran to the negotiations table before President Obama relaxed sanctions removing many of the most hurtful and effective sanctions. This may work to not only force Iran to reenter negotiations and even potentially force a far more advantageous deal where Iran is forced to not only forfeit continuing their enrichment of uranium, end their construction of the Arak plutonium producing reactor and disassemble all of their centrifuges. This is the deal that President Obama is impossible to attain and that Congress desires using sanctions to prove it to be attainable if only sanctions and time are permitted to work. But it is more probable that President Obama will complete the negotiations and have an agreement to sign in the near future. The only question left is how far Iran will defrost relations with the United States from their frosty ice age which has been the basis ever since the 1979 Iranian revolution and the ensuing hostage crisis where Iran held fifty-two American diplomats and citizens for four-hundred-forty-four days from November 4, 1979, to January 20, 1981, coinciding remarkably with the inauguration of Ronald Reagan. But really, what if THE Speech makes absolutely no difference regarding the agreement being forged between the P5+1 and Iran?

 

There may be reasons beyond simply giving THE Speech before those willing to attend the joint session of Congress and instead intended for the audience beyond which will either view THE Speech through a video or audio transmission, but in Israel the broadcast has been ruled that it must not be broadcast live but with a five minute delay such that anything considered to be a form of campaigning can be muted or even blackening the screen simultaneously as the audio is muted as a precaution against Prime Minister Netanyahu potential to utilize the speech for electioneering purposes. Outside or inside Israel THE Speech will likely be viewed live on CSPAN and I am sure that any interested head of state or politician will be able to arrange viewing live, so basically there will be political leaders and people worldwide who will be able to view live or otherwise view THE Speech with a little effort thus Prime Minister Netanyahu will be speaking to a far wider audience than the United States joined Houses of Congress minus the detractors who will be heeding the demand for them to be the balm for President Obama’s damaged pride by boycotting Prime Minister Netanyahu’s address or possibly his entire visit including any meetings or question and answer sessions he may attend. Then there will be the release of the text which does lack any emphasis added by the Prime Minister’s delivery. These foreign viewers may also be a significant part of the audience intended to be reached by the Prime Minister. Perhaps THE Speech will cause one of the P5+1 members to come out and oppose the agreement thus using their veto to block its implementation other than the United States which leaves Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia. Obviously, Russia and China are more closely aligned with Iran and potentially have no issues with their attaining nuclear weapons capability so the actual targets to object to the deal and demand far more stringent restrictions hopefully crippling the Iranian drive towards nuclear weapons capabilities would be Britain and France. This is not as preposterous a possibility as many might believe as back when the tentative agreement was reached in December of 2013, in a previous vote on the tentative agreement Britain informed the Saudi Arabian rulers of the terms and expressed reservations though they eventually agreed while the French made their communication with the Israelis and initially the French delegation vetoed the agreement and it took until the next day to persuade or otherwise have the French remove their objections and in a subsequent vote all went as preferred by President Obama and his team. It was months later when it became known that the United States had held secret talks and had already released parts of the sanctions even before receiving affirmations from the other partners of the P5+1 nations. So, there is the potential for THE Speech to influence either the British or the French governments such that they send orders to their negotiation delegates and their Foreign Ministers that they have decided to oppose the arrangement hammered out by the United States and Iran independent of the influences of the rest of P5+1 negotiation teams. But what if THE Speech fails to influence any of the nations taking part in these negotiations sufficiently to actively oppose the agreement which is expected by mid-March leaving a little time before the March 31 deadline to smooth any unexpected ruffles which may occur, then what other possibilities could also be sought by Prime Minister Netanyahu?

 

There is another alternative which is probably the least desirable of the potential possibilities and thankfully one of the least likely. Just because the United States along with Russia, China, France and Britain, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council and the holders of veto power in that body where the United States veto has been used to Israeli advantage since June of 1967, and Germany which pretty much includes the power brokers from the European Union which has also been included in these negotiations since their inception, reach an agreement or accord, anything other than an actual treaty approved by the United States Congress, does not preclude other nations from attempting to influence or force Iran into negotiations and potentially an even more restrictive and enforceable agreement is not excluded from reality. Such an attempt would require virtually every nation which would otherwise trade with Iran or buy Iranian oil to impose a complete shutdown on all trade with the possible exception originally of medical and food trade goods, but even those would be threatened to be included if the initial sanctions were not sufficiently effective in pressuring Iran into negotiations with this new alliance. Such a decision by a group of nations which might even include one of the first alliances which included Muslim nations such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain and Indonesia with having Israel as not only one of the nations included, but the nation leading the coalition though it would not be impossible for Israel to operate under the radar, so to speak, and allow Saudi Arabia or Egypt take the leading role. The real threat which would make this such a risk and also so undesirable is the alternative if such sanctions prove ineffective when weighed against the investments and trade with the United States and Europe as well as Russia and China, especially China who buys a large amount of Iranian oil, then that coalition of the willing might find many participating nations not so willing if the time came that makes the need to risk military action against Iran to be placed on the table as an alternate option should Iran continue to refuse to negotiate with this second set of nations. There are very few nations which have sufficient military forces and resources who could join together and pose an actual threat to the Iranian military. There would also be the direct possibility that the nations who took part in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran would decide they needed to enforce their agreement as sufficient and threaten the new alliance with an embargo on them or worse. It is difficult to think of any coalition which would, let alone could, stand against such pressures. The unfortunate thing is there is little hope that THE Speech will have any favorable effects but at least the world, starting with the Representatives and Senators who are in the chamber will receive an in depth explanation of exactly where the Iranian nuclear weapons program has progressed, how long it might take them to build a single nuclear device and how soon after that they would be capable of constructing additional warheads and of the level of sophistications these devices might have and the ever important yields and potential for an EMP device. The one huge question everyone should be clamoring to find the answer, and that is does Iran have the ability to construct a thermonuclear device, in other terms, a hydrogen fusion bomb. If THE Speech reveals that Iran has such technical ability, the engineering specialists capable, and the necessary elements and a trusted and continuous source, as that too would be required to attain such unsettling, daunting and intimidating capabilities; such known to be established capability might even serve as a wake-up call for President Obama, the man who promised to minimize or even reduce the numbers of nuclear armed nations, not initiate and welcome the newest nuclear nation and announcing the newest arms race to nuclear weapon production across the Middle East thus essentially nullifying the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and potentially facilitating the dread inevitability that once almost every nation which desired nuclear weapons were to become so armed which all but guarantees the certitude that a nuclear war will break out somewhere and that will signal the end of civilization and the onset of a world which more resembles those post-apocalyptic B-movies which were released during the Cold War and the threat of a nuclear exchange between the Communist and Western nations.

 

There are those who have claimed, as have I, that President Obama desired to knock the United States from not just the world stage while he was President, but to permanently prevent the United States from reasserting herself as the preeminent surviving super power or even imposing her will through military actions such as was the case in Afghanistan and Iraq until President Obama surrendered both nations through premature retreat pulling out and reducing American military presence such that they served more as advisors and were made too impotent to be a credible force in the field of battle. This is what led to the birth of ISIS and their rise as a threat to Syria and Iraq thus far while the core group also threatens Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel. This was followed, almost ran concurrently, with the pullout of American forces when President Obama pressed Egyptian President Mubarak from office and supported the Muslim Brotherhood and their takeover of Egypt. Following Egypt there was the NATO action initiated by President Obama, though the United States led from behind, that toppled Moammar Gadhafi from power in Libya which destabilized the nation and is where a second core for ISIS was born and has begun to slaughter Egyptians as well as Libyans and threatening to mount an amphibious assault on Italy with the aim of sacking Rome. There have also been reports that ISIS aligned cells are already setting the groundwork to replace the Arab terror groups in Judea, Samaria and Gaza so that ISIS can war with Israel and presumably drive the Jews from their homelands once again. There are bands affiliated with ISIS marauding in the Sinai Peninsula which makes the coup in Egypt potentially a good thing even if it put General Sisi on the throne as a civilian, of course. The destabilization of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) has reached from the eastern borders of Iran to the sandy shores of Morocco and the Atlantic Ocean. During President Obama’s terms in office Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has all but completed the transformation of Turkey from Secular society to an Islamic society and virtually enacting Sharia. About the only things that President Obama has yet to complete of the items I had feared were his goals for his Presidency to live-up to his standards and complete those particulars I suspected he desired to complete, he still has a way to go to make many of them but President Obama has functioned with a firm reliance that he is invulnerable and that he has effectively neutered the Congress and will simply allow the courts to fight out the rest of what he performs and he also hopes to be able to appoint some people to the Supreme Court as well as the lower courts. His wildest dream would be to replace two or three of the four conservative stalwarts on the Supreme Court with youthful and energetic justices who share his political views especially that the Constitution is dated and no longer applicable to modern society and thus to be largely ignored whenever it becomes and threat to establishing a just and fair society. Such a society would be based on equity in all things starting with wealth which requires complete establishment of the engine for redistribution of wealth, judicial decision based on racial, gender, sexual preference guidelines which would give special consideration to the favored peoples, the gutting of the United States military which was started by cancelling the production of the F-22 fighter jet along with numerous other new weapons systems, the reduction of Western nations military abilities such that they became susceptible to invasion incapable of resistance, open borders with amnesty and citizenship for all who desire to live in the United States and can actually get here with the Border Patrol redefined job to be the issuing of all items necessary for proof of citizenship, and to destroy the entirety of the United States nuclear arsenal and the ability for the manufacture of replacements once his terms in office are over. His grand design for the Middle East was for Iran to replace Israel as the hegemonic power, give the Muslim Brotherhood the power to rule in an nation which he succeeded in doing for one year in Egypt before the military responded to the demonstrators’ outcries for liberation from the sliding towards Islamist Sharia governance before it became too late, and the establishment of the Palestinian State even if that required it being consecrated in the corpse of Israel in the process. President Obama still has just under two years and he does not need to fear another election or the support of the people and he did manage to get Obamacare passed inside of his first two years so imagine what he can accomplish in his last two years. Meanwhile, we wait on next Tuesday when Prime Minister Netanyahu stands before the mostly combined Congress and potentially every vital, influential, powerful, wealthy, successful and empowered individuals and groups the worldwide and delivers THE Speech, let us hope it accomplishes something very positive in making that necessary changes in the path being taken currently by our world and alters the hearts and minds of those who hate and those who aim to destroy while preventing any further enfeeblement of the Western world as it nears a time of destiny which will decide the future of the human race possibly permanently. We may be coming up upon the final conflict in which the victors will lead us all beyond the cusp into new full of promises and great accomplishments with wonders beyond our imaginations or backward to a period where we live an unbelievably brutish existence lacking in civility or any refinement and thoughts of plenty and dreams of a future will be torn from our minds as time for such things do not exist in such a world.

 

Beyond the Cusp