Beyond the Cusp

August 8, 2017

Future of Worry and Present of Threats

 

Temple Mount, just those two words bring up thoughts of rioting youth and terrorism murdering Israeli police and citizens. Ask anyone and they will tell you that the Israeli Arab conflict is one of the most difficult political problems on the planet. That thinking can and will never solve this conflict. There exists absolutely no political solution to this problem. The reason is this is not a political problem. More on this as we get further into the article.

 

Iran, this is also a political threat according to President Trump and most of the advisors and experts. Iran is attempting to take over much of the Middle East with control already stretching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They have all but taken over the southern half of Iraq, all of Lebanon and are working to take over much of Syria and appear to be succeeding with Russian assistance and the use of Lebanese Hezballah which for all intents and purposes is the Army of Lebanon plus what remains of the Syrian Army that remains loyal to Bashir al-Assad. Iran has been working towards a nuclear weapon and nobody can be absolutely assured that they are keeping to the supposed agreement made with President Obama. Most do not even know what the agreement between the nations was as each copy of the terms appears to be different. There are the Russian, European, and United States versions and nobody knows for sure what the Iranian agreement states. Iran has made remarkable progress on their missile technology and has been known to be working with North Korea which has to trouble everyone. The world will be seeking a political solution to this set of threats as well. This also is not a political problem.

 

North Korea and Kim Jong-un is probably the most pressing problem currently as he is about to go beyond the cusp and actually have a solid fueled ICBM capable of striking anywhere on the planet. Such a system is probably less than six months away and by that time he will most definitely have a nuclear EMP device (electro-magnetic pulse) capable of being placed atop just such a missile and taking out an electrical grid the size of North America or Europe. Further, he will likely have at least a nuclear device capable of decimating a city if not a thermonuclear device capable of destroying an entire metropolitan area. Some political solution is also being sought to this threat. This also is not a political problem.

 

China has been expanding her control in the South China Sea and threatening to take over disputed islands claimed by Japan and the Philippines. China has also refused to take any stand towards placing some control on Kim Jong-un. Many believe that this is due to China hoping that the trouble being sewn by North Korea will take the pressure and concentration of President Trump off the moves being exercised by China. This is probably not a wise move by China as President Trump is perfectly capable of addressing more than one problem at a time just as he is capable of causing more than one problem at a time. China, fortunately, is largely a political problem but also shares some of the properties of these other situations.

 

So, what is this magical and mysterious central concept that is not political at the center of these problems? In a single word, it is supremacy. For Iran and the Arabs, it is religious supremacy. For Kim Jong-un it is his view of himself as more than just a man but more of an idealized and worshiped leader who has abilities far above his enemies and other mere mortal beings. For China, it is the fact that China has been a world hegemon off and on for centuries and has always considered themselves superior to other nations and add in the Communist doctrines which tell that Communism will defeat Capitalism and the West given sufficient time, and time has always been in the favor of China. Where in the west we count our seconds and minutes, in China they count centuries and millennia. This has and still is an advantage as China operates on an entirely different view where they do not need to win today or tomorrow or in the next ten or hundred years. They believe that their patience and belief that their children or their children will one day rule the world will win them any contest.

 

So, as each of these conflicts is about supremacy of some sort, how does one become the victor? Let us take these situations in reverse order and start with China. There is no defeating the Chinese, only proving preeminent for now. If you can show China a strong front which is obviously a match if not superior to their current ability, China will lay back and wait building slowly but inexorably towards closing any gap or perceived deficiency. Currently China is building her Navy adding submarines and aircraft carriers. These are currently smaller and less capable than those of the United States, but China is rapidly making gains in the production of these vessels. This should not present a problem in the immediate as the United States can produce these as they wish as they just launched a new super carrier recently, the USS George H.W Bush CVN-77, which was the tenth of these super-carriers, three of which are currently stationed in or around the Sea of Japan and right off the coast of North Korea and China and rather close to the South China Sea when one considers the range of their aircraft (see image below). Where China will have difficulty keeping abreast of the United States militarily is simple, the United States spends more on her defense budget than China, Russia, India, Israel, Brazil, Britain, and Saudi Arabia combined. China knows they may be the eight-hundred-pound gorilla in the western Pacific, Sea of Japan, South China Sea and surrounding waters, but the United States is the ten-ton gorilla anywhere on the globe whenever she chooses to be so and the area just off China and North Korea currently has that privilege. China will rest and dream of a few centuries down the line but right now had best be concerned with India which is poised to become the most populous nation within a decade or two surpassing China. That one-child policy has really come to bite China.

 

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

USS George H.W Bush CVN-77

 

Next is North Korea where Kim Jong-un is perfecting his ICBMs and his nuclear warheads for immediate future use against the United States. What people need remember is that the United States and North Korea are at war as are North and South Korea with one another. The United States and South Korea stand opposed to North Korea across an area which resembles a World War I no man’s land and both sides take casualties every so often just to punctuate the distrust and animosity. North Korea has sufficient artillery and rocket launchers including multiple-launch rocket vehicles (MLRV) to completely decimate the entirety of the greater Seoul metropolitan area. That would amount to millions of casualties and the decimation of the South Korean economy. This has been their threat for years and it has worked as planned. Now North Korea is on the verge of a new threat, nuclear annihilation to any city on Earth or an even more devastating weapons, a super EMP device which is a low yield but dirty nuclear device with a yield under twenty-five kilotons but which produces a massive EMP wave which destroys virtually all functioning electronics being active at the time. This includes the massive power transformers used in the electrical grid. If these are not heavily shielded and hardened against such a device they will explode, causing fires and massive outages of electrical power, quite possibly much of the North American or European grids. There are very limited numbers of companies which manufacture these transformers, as demand for them is proportional to the expansion of the world electrical grids which moves at a steady but slow rate, all things considered. Such a device could put a nation like the United States without adequate electrical generation and delivery capability for as long as a decade or even two resulting in a loss of over half if not three-quarters of the population. If such a device were detonated over Kansas City, the entirety of the central United States and reaching well into Canada would be affected. That is the threat the United States and potentially Europe face from North Korea as soon as they have the rocket and a warhead version making such a device deliverable, something they could already posses. There is no delicate means for addressing this threat short of decapitating the entirety of the North Korean military command and structure and then having South Korea take as much of the peninsula as China will allow them. It is very possible that the Chinese will not interfere in such an instance, as they would not care to absorb the problems economically which exists in North Korea.

 

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

Demilitarized Zone Between North Korea and South Korea

 

Iran is fortunately not an immediate problem. One such problem is sufficient. Iran though is a growing problem which in some means resembles North Korea. The leadership of Iran feels they, as a whole, are superior to other people as they are the most learned in the Quran which gives them all the knowledge necessary to win. They have the ideology of Islam which promises them that Allah will make them the conquerors of the entire planet and all that their god commands. If life was found on a distant world and the Islamic peoples were aware of such and believed that to be a truth, then they would also expect to conquer that planet and subjugate and eventually convert or murder everyone. The main problem Iran has is Islam itself. Iran is Shiite Islam which is a small percentage of Muslims while Sunni Islam is easily ten times their numbers. Of course should Iran gain nuclear missiles and nuclear warheads, that might change rapidly. Then akin, if Iran developed nuclear weapons one can bet that Saudi Arabia would simply purchase a number of warheads sufficient to remove Iran and her allies from the map and then do so. Next to North Korea, Islam on Islam internecine warfare is the second highest risk of nuclear war breaking out on our globe. The most likely is between Saudi Arabia and Iran and should that occur and the Saudi Arabia manage to lose that exchange, the next would be Egypt who would likely ally so fast with Pakistan and likely arrange the launch to come from Pakistan as they are closer to Iran anyways. Egypt would waste no time getting aid from the United States and possibly even seek assistance from, of all places, Israel to intercept anything headed for Egypt as well as defending herself. Iran may soon require being toppled, something which a wise United States State Department would already be working on. Unfortunately the United States State Department has never really shown much of a proclivity for doing the right thing ever since World War I, they were even almost on the wrong side of World War II except the rest of the United States chose better.

 

Finally, we get to the Arabs and Israel. This is a very basic and simple situation. The Arabs are Muslims and the Israelis are Jews. To the Arab mind this is a simple problem, they are Islam, the sole true religion on earth and Israel are the Jews, the most contemptable religion on earth. Are there any questions after that description? There are only two results in this situation, either the Jews are annihilated or the Arabs go away or are so subjugated and defeated that even the sight of a yarmulke makes them shake with terrorizing, gripping fear. The problem is the world refuses to allow Israel to win such a victory and demands Israel make concessions to repair a political situation. Every concession Israel makes just has the Arabs believing Israel is frightened of them and reinforces their sense of superiority making the solution that much more distant. Should Israel be permitted to go through the Arab areas, take all the terrorists out and deal with them in a primitive and brutal manner, the problem would end the next sunrise. Even if the Jordanian Arabs were to get their independence from the Jordanian King and invite the Arabs to move to Jordan, they would still believe that they should conquer Israel as well. Only a defeat of the Arabs living within the lands promised Israel would end this conflict for the time being. There is only one thing which would solve this problem permanently, but the world is nowhere near ready to hear such an idea, though that time is soon to come or the world is in worse shape than we thought. Islam will require having its wings clipped and clipped severely such that the sound of a jet engine or the sound of tank tracks or a car motor sends then quivering to the furthest corner. Islam in several means is resurgent and will start to attempt conquest if not prevented through a display of actual willingness to prevent such an explosive force of destruction. Imagine terrorist attacks the globe over similar to what Israel faced in the Second Intifada and you have an idea of how such a war will soon progress. Israel has still to come to terms with this truth; the world is even further from this realization. There are some who see this such as John Bolton, Geert Wilders, Ayaan Hirsi Ali, Brigitte Gabriel and a select group of others. The only hope is for the world to awaken before it becomes necessary for another World at War.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 31, 2017

Our Worlds Are in a Mess and Clashing

 

Part I

 

Link to Part II

 

The Western World is seemingly in a death spiral while the Eastern Worlds are struggling with ideas the West cast off at the end of colonialism and Israel is caught in the middle. The Eastern World and Developing World are easily assessed as they are at the beginning point the West has already progressed past. Africa, central and much of southern, are still living largely off resources and selling such on the world market and subsistence farming with small amounts of true agricultural farming. The greatest of harms has been done to Africa as they have received massive shipments of food in the forms of wheat and other crops which would have been more productive had they grown the crops themselves. As their economy was basically agrarian, shipping them food was starving their economy thus making investments impossible as there was no venture capital with which to develop further. Basically, the Western World, whether through neglect, ignorance or an actual attempt to impede development, took away the one industry which Africa was suited to utilize for their own development. This left them with their farmers starving having to farm for their own families’ existence instead of farming to feed their own cities and thus form a solid backbone from which their economies could base growth. This has left Africa as a vastly underdeveloped continent surviving by selling off their natural resources instead of developing their own infrastructure to ready themselves to introduce industrial economic development. So while they sell their ore, their gems, their precious metals and every other item they can mine or find, they are actually stealing their own future to pay for the society today and that is a recipe for ruin.

 

The area known as MENA (Middle East and North Africa) is not in much better shape economically. Their economies are based on oil and drugs depending on the country. The few which are not able or willing to rely on either of those resources are living off base level industry, tourism, the good graces of an oil rich sponsor or some combination thereof. Egypt is such an example, as are many of the North African nations, has meager industrial base, a natural tourist industry with the Pyramids of Giza and other ancient wonders and a small oil market which also provides sufficient energy for the country to operate. Egypt could develop an industrial fishing economy and does receive funds from passage of commerce through the Suez Canal but still relies largely on the United States and Saudi Arabia to keep her solvent. The rest of the North African nations are at some level of poverty or worse, in complete melt-down as is Libya where tribal forces compete for the right to claim they rule the country when in reality it is nothing more than tribal influences vying for land and terrorist training areas taking advantage of the lack of governmental military force to prevent such. Along the entirety of the border with Central Africa there is a low level warfare going on with the most notable area being split between the war by proxy the Sudan is waging against the separative South Sudan and the regions being torn apart by terrorist violence by Boko Haram centered upon Nigeria where a little over a week ago at least twelve people were killed following two suicide blasts in the Maiduguri area of northeastern Nigeria and at the start of this month Boko Haram militants killed nine and abducted dozens more in southern Niger where attackers rode camels into the village of Ngalewa, about fifty kilometers north of the border with Nigeria. Such violence goes all but unreported in Western news as if this area of extreme and brutal violence is not important when the nations fighting these struggles cannot develop properly in such an atmosphere. This zone is known euphemistically as the African Transition Zone (pictured below). This zone also is the demarcation line between the Islamic World and that of Christian and African Traditional Religion. This is a war which deserves recognition beyond that of the Coptic Christians though they are an important segment of this struggle of non-Islamic faiths which are bordering the Islamic World.

 

African Transition Zone

African Transition Zone

 

The Middle East has its share of difficulties starting with the focal point of Syria. Syria, along with Yemen, defines the main struggle in the area, Sunni Islam against Shiite Islam. This battle has raged off and on since the death of Muhammad and is once again coming to the foreground. The main impetus behind Shiite Islam is Iran which currently includes much of southern Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. This area can be referred to as the Shiite Crescent (pictured below) and connects the Indian Ocean with the Mediterranean Sea granting an overland route which circumvents the Suez Canal. Such is important as should Iran take full control of Yemen they will control both choke points, the Straights of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, the main oil route from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, and the Bab el Mandeb which controls the exit from the Red Sea through the Gulf of Aden into the Indian Ocean which also cuts off the Suez Canal and the Israeli southern port of Eilat. Blocking these two choke points is what makes a land route to the Mediterranean Sea so important. Saudi Arabia could benefit from an oil pipeline across her width to the Red Sea but they would need to build a port capable of handling tankers or they could use the Israeli ports which have such capabilities if only they recognized that such an entity existed. The Saudi Port of Jeddah would also suffice but such would be susceptible to Egyptian control of the Suez Canal where using Israel would likely cost recognition and Saudi pressure to end the Arab-Israeli conflict and end the Arab Palestinian war to eliminate Israel through all means usable. For the meantime, Saudi Arabia is more than happy to keep the pressures on Israel preventing her from developing even faster. All the while, we have the heart of the Islamic World across MENA which saw itself go from the leaders in the world to the losers in the world with the Industrial Revolution in the Western World. What is most interesting is the Islamic World refuses to believe that they fell behind and hold the West as responsible for their lost primacy and have sworn to bring the Western World down, and are making great headway as the West does little or actually aid the Islamic World in this endeavor.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Far East has one eight-ton gorilla and some interesting, in a warped way, other actors. The main force emerging from the Far East is China. What is mostly ignored is right behind China we have India. India is simply working quietly in harmony with all around her with the exception of Pakistan (border with Islam) and a conflict over border claims around the region of Doklam, where Chinese and Indian forces remain locked in a stand-off sparked by a road construction project in a disputed border area shared with Bhutan. This is an old rivalry going back long before modern history with these two being the central powers in this region for much of human history. What will make this more interesting is that India is expected to surpass China as the most populous nation sometime this century. Also in this area is our favorite nut-job, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un who, as we have reported over the past two weeks, is developing missiles and well on his way to ICBM’s capable of striking anywhere on the planet and the nuclear warheads to place atop these missiles. North Korea is a menace which China appears unwilling or unable of reining in which could lead to open warfare if one side blinks at the wrong time or is caught winking when they should have been eyes front. Any misreading by either side, and especially the mentally less than stable Kim Jong-un, could result in a nuclear war whose expanse will be determined by that which the North Korean dictator can reach with his missiles. North Korea is suspected of working with Iran which means that Kim Jong-un could have a fleet of ballistic missile carrying freighters ready to launch at coastal cities leaving them mere minutes if not seconds to react before being struck by a nuclear warhead. And, of course, both South Korea and Japan, two of North Korea’s main enemies after the United States, are both within striking distance already and are obviously nervous.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 30, 2017

North Korea Sending Trump Personal Message

 

Kim Jong-un has allowed his latest missile to do his talking and his message could not be clearer. President Trump has just been asked whether he feels ready to actually challenge the leader of North Korea or is he ready to back down, bringing his ships home, especially the three aircraft carriers, and stand down from his demands. There will be further questions the least of which will be will the world actually do anything in about six months, a year tops, when Kim Jong-un decides the time has come to unify the Korean Peninsula and place all of it under his benevolent rule. That ought to satisfy his appetite for the remainder of the decade before his sights turn to Japan. Oh, also, should Kim Jong-un be permitted to unify the Korean Peninsula under his rule, the world should expect the unification of China with Taiwan being reunited with Mainland China under the Communist’s rule. Taiwan would still be granted some additional freedom in a similar manner as has been permitted Hong Kong. This would include the slow tightening of the Communist noose that is initially placed loosely around Hong Kong’s neck. Believe it or not, these are the very ramifications that are facing President Trump and the allies of the United States in and around the Sea of Japan as well as Taiwan further south. In our map below, North Korea, as the greatest threat, is colored in red, China, the potential secondary threat, is colored in brown and South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are colored in yellow as the targets depending on the United States to enforce their protection.

 

China and North Korea with Their Targets South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

China and North Korea with Their Targets
South Korea, Japan and Taiwan

 

There was a reaction that came initially from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson who issued a statement declaring, “As the principal economic enablers of North Korea’s nuclear weapon and ballistic missile development program, China and Russia bear unique and special responsibility for this growing threat to regional and global stability.” After speaking with Tillerson on Saturday, Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida said Tokyo would join Washington in new appeals to China and Russia to stop North Korea’s missile program. There will be more commentary in the ensuing days, but the main truth, which need be addressed, is that now North Korea can launch a missile and strike the mainland of the United States. Initial reports claim that the extreme range for a missile matching the one launched yesterday using an optimum trajectory could reach Chicago. It was reported to be a Hwasong-14 missile that was launched (see video below), one of the missiles we talked about yesterday in Where Will You Be When Kim Jong-un Launches? What this means is actually far more reaching than most will report. Should North Korea decide they wished to decapitate the United States, they now have the means to launch a small nuclear warhead of minimal yield, which could be designed for a maximized EMP (electromagnetic pulse) which could devastate the United States electrical grid. Should such a device be detonated over the St Louis to Kansas City region, it could quite readily all but destroy the electrical grid of the United States between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains and from well into Canada above the Great Lakes through Texas in the south. Such a weapon would cripple the United States and incapacitate much of the United States military making the ability of the United States to respond to any threat to her allies limited to what could be provided by the Navy. At the moment, such an attack would leave the United States with unmatched power sitting off the North Korean coast in the form of three aircraft carrier groups.

 

 

Still, Kim Jong-un is sending the message that he does not believe that President Donald Trump has what it takes to actually do anything as if he did have such nerve, he would have already taken steps against North Korea. Kim Jong-un may not even be controllable by Russia or China, as he may have gone off the reservation and is now beyond control of anyone and only his death will prevent him from continuing to work towards his dream of weakening the United States, slowly making them powerless against him in the area around the Sea of Japan. The Sea of Japan is the pool of water over which Kim Jong-un desires control, and that makes South Korea and Japan his first natural targets. But there is one difficulty between Kim Jong-un and his goal of ruling his entire small fiefdom, the United States and its ability to crush him should he move even the slightest bit towards his goals. This is why he must first force the United States into knowing that any move made which would support either South Korea or Japan should either come under attack from Kim Jong-un, that he would not hesitate in launching ICBMs striking at the United States with sufficient numbers that they would face devastating destruction beyond what they could absorb. Kim Jong-un has already convinced the world that he cares little about anything but expanding his control and had definite delusions of grandeur and that his thoughts may not even be discernable and thus he becomes unpredictable. Some believe that Kim Jong-un has no real connection with reality and that he could do the unthinkable and begin a nuclear war by launching a nuclear strike on numerous cities within the United States plus using EMP designed warheads with special detonators that will explode them at the optimum altitude of approximately three hundred miles. We have previously told how North Korea has become even a larger problem than the Middle East or anywhere else. Even Syria is nowhere near the threat, neither is the Islamic State because, simply put, Kim Jong-un has been launching a new missile at an ever-increasing rate with each one surpassing the former. Even more distressing has been that each new missile has a greater range than the previous. There is another reality, which is even more of a worry, these newer missiles are no longer all liquid fueled missiles which take long preparations before launching which would permit the United States to detect their readying and preventing their launch; many are solid fueled missiles which can be launched without necessary preparation. These are the facts and there really is not much more that needs saying at this time, but we expect that Kim Jong-un will see to it he remains in our coverage soon. Until then, allow us a little room for levity as we quote Kim Jong-un as he would be in a Clint Eastwood movie, “These trucks carry six missiles and honestly, well, in all the excitement I’ve lost track of how many I’ve fired. Now, as one of these missiles destroys a city, you have to ask yourself a question, President Trump. Do you feel lucky? Well, do-ya Trump?”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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