Beyond the Cusp

September 14, 2017

Sheer Embarrassment from Washington

 

What or who can be described as sheer embarrassment from Washington can be answered in so many ways as the national capital is just chock full of embarrassments. Many people have referred to President Trump as the most embarrassing President in history. We might also nominate President Ulysses S. Grant as probably a good candidate to challenge for that title, but for this article, we will grant that there is plenty of potential that might be parlayed into a winning Presidency for the title. We will have to wait and see. But we were not referring to President Trump.

 

Then there is the media and the, as President Trump refers to it, “Fake news” giving them a run at the title. We know much of the news comes from New York or Los Angeles. Where that may prove true, and we would add Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston and other major cities, but the news, which appears to be most made-up, originates from Washington D.C. We have had our little disagreements with the media for longer than most and much of it with CNN and their reporting on the Middle East and Israel specifically. Even so, we are afraid that it is not the news media we are referring to in this article.

 

Then there are the reactions to the Presidency of Donald J. Trump from the entertainment direction and some of the most outlandish and outspoken actors and actresses. We have seen such things as a decapitated President, demands to assassinate the President and for assaults on the White House. The entertainment industry has had musicians actually ruin otherwise great performances by injecting political denouncements into their acts. These entertainers, singer, musicians, comedians and others have gone to such extremes that they have also been an embarrassment, but not what we are targeting.

 

That leaves Congress and they are the group which has gotten our attentions this time. It is particularly the Republicans who are going to receive our attentions. We understand the Democrat Party Congressional representation voting as a single point against the majority of things President Trump has lobbied Congress to pass. President Trump is, to them, the enemy who desires destroying everything they believe and have accomplished over the last eight years under President Barack Obama. Of course, the Democrats will vote against much, if not all, of the Trump agenda and their ability to hold the line unanimously is a credit to their part unity and vote discipline. If the Republicans were as supportive of their President as the Democrats are at opposing the President, then President Trump would be getting things completed and checking them off his to do list, as they would be done. The Republicans do not have that kind of discipline and the reason is basic, their leadership, at best, is conflicted over their support for the President. They are not attempting to hold their people to vote for the Trump agenda, as they do not respect him as their party leader. They view President Trump as an outsider and a one-off who was more lucky than having any political acumen. They do not believe he has earned their respect or the right to lead their party and thus do not feel obligated to work for him as they might one of their own. Their actions are going to cost them when elections come, especially if their electorate lives anywhere between the Appalachian Mountains and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, otherwise called Middle America. These were the people who sent Trump to the White House and they are likely not going to receive their representatives second-guessing their wisdom. This has made the Congress into a do-nothing Congress when the people voted for change and they are not receiving what they demanded.

 

The two items which the electorate was most eager to see enacted were the repeal of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) and tax reform including across the board tax reductions and simplification of the tax code even if that meant they would lose some presumed precious deductions. The people recognized that Obamacare was nothing more than the means by which the Democrats were attempting to force the enactment of a single-payer healthcare system run by the government and wanted no part of such a system. The people wanted their old system of healthcare returned to them while it was still viable rather than delays until the healthcare insurance industry had failed beyond repair, something which is no more than six months away by many estimates. Unfortunately, there are some core Republican elite members who agree with the left that the best healthcare is government run healthcare and that the people need to be given what these Republican lifetime Congress members believe is best for them, not what the people themselves desire. These lifers think they are more intelligent and wiser than the people they represent. Many of these people, they believe, are incapable of reasoning intelligently will hopefully demonstrate their ability for independent thought and replace these elite politicians who believe themselves to be superior to those they represent. Apparently there are those amongst the most well-known Republicans in Congress who have decided that being a representative of the people does not require representing the people but thinking for the people.

 

The other issue, tax reform and reduction, has not been given a good run as the Congress decided to run off and take their long Labor Day break, which lasts half of August and September, rather than do their job and address the IRS Code. We are willing to bet that most of the people these clowns represent would like to take three, four or even five weeks off to celebrate what for the regular people, you know, their lessers, get to celebrate as a three day weekend unless they use their vacation days. That is correct. The members of Congress who were unable to deliver on their seven year promise and the number one item they campaigned upon for almost a decade, the repeal of Obamacare, decided they required a month off to recover from their arduous debates and then inability to pass, not one, not two, but any of three different means for repealing Obamacare as promised. There was a reason why they had three different bills which they voted on in one day, rejecting one after the other, but allowing those who desired to oppose President Trump to each at least vote for one of the repeals or even two while making sure that they had sufficient opposition each time so all three would fail. This is an old trick that the members of Congress have pulled nearly forever. They make multiple versions of a bill they have promised to support. Then they all support at least one of the versions while the majority votes down each version. Then they can all go home and tout how they supported the single version they did vote for while disavowing that they voted against the other versions. This is how they deceive without actually being caught in a lie and more often than not the media only check to see if what they stated was true, not whether the spirit of their statement was true. The media and the political elites are all in the same party circles and become friends and friends help one another, that is only normal. Who wants new faces on their party circuit, that means getting used to a whole new person who will need breaking in and being taught how the games are played.

 

Congress will now get to play games with the tax reform packages. They will have numerous, possibly hard to count versions of tax reform and they will divide up between them how to vote so even the most contemptible Democrat will be able to tell his moneyed supporters how they fought tooth and nail to get them the breaks in the tax code they deserve. It is all about making the lies believable and having the right votes in place to back the lie despite their arranging the votes for just that purpose. We will hear reason after reason as to why there was no tax reform or that the loopholes just could not be removed because other members of Congress worked against your particular representatives in the House and Senate while they worked like dogs trying to make the new tax package more fair. Oh, how they worked themselves to the bone going to all the different Washington parties then showing up to work at the ungodly hour of eleven in the morning and going home at two-thirty so they would miss rush hour and oh the pains they went through. Oh, wait, they will never be that honest. They will try and pass the party which lasted until two in the morning as the time they were working the others in Congress to vote for their package which was just so fair and unblemished. Of course, the rich had too much influence and your attempt to be the super person of the little people failed. The poor Congress critter worked so hard between the events every night of the week.

 

Now, we will mention that there are the few people in Congress who actually are representing their constituents and the people as a whole, but these are the members who are easy to spot. The first thing is they are rarely in the news and their picture is almost never in the major newspapers. Next, they are the ones who most often have a party plant put against them in their primary and the party does all they can to supplant them and they are always the underdog. Some of these members of Congress are so egregious that they never receive any support from the national party or often the state party and even have their party work against them in the general elections as they feel it is better to have the opposition for one term and then they can run a party line person they can control the next election. If you ever find that you have such a person in the Congress, hold on to them as far too many in Congress are purely party functionaries. They do not represent their constituents; they represent money and party plain and simple. If ever there was a need for such people to be placed in the Congress, the next election is crucial. If it were possible to elect almost all members to Congress who had never been in politics before, that time has arrived if the nation is to be rescued.

 

There is a reason that the Congress is currently stymied and unable to function and that is being done on purpose. The political machine, and there is only one real political machine and both the Democrat and Republican Parties are parts of a single entity. The machine serves the major industries which have the capital to invest in making sure that each party gets their turn at the big prize, the White House. The machine every so often does manage to lose its iron grasp on the White House and must then rely on the Congress to assure that no real damage is incurred. The election of Donald Trump as President is one of those times that the machine lost the big prize. The fix was supposed to be in and Hillary Clinton was presumed to be the next President once the others, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio or even worst-case scenario, Ted Cruz lost and the uncontrollable Donald Trump became the Republican candidate. The machine had not counted on Hillary Clinton as their candidate and was counting on the Republicans to choose wisely, the people refused to be smart, imagine that. The machine had given the Republicans the nod as after eight years of a Democrat, they could read the tea leaves and the leaves indicated the Republican Party had the advantage in the race for the White House. When the Republican candidate turned out to be a rogue from outside the regular field, the machine had no recourse as the Democrats had given them a ham-handed candidate, as flawed as the Republican. They went with the horse they knew and could influence and would play the game; they went with Hillary. Their only hope was to convince the world that Hillary was popular which required her having high polling numbers and looking assured of the win. This may have backfired but that is something we will never know for sure. Now they have to deal with President Trump so the Congress must make sure he does as little damage to those who actually control the government. Let us all hope that they fail at this.

 

Capitol Cash Machine

Capitol Cash Machine

 

There is one thing people can do which will pay dividends down the road. If your have a member of the House of Representatives who has been in Washington over ten years, replace them. Once your Senator has served two, three terms at the most, replace them. Washington D.C. has a corrupting influence which taints anybody not raised inside the Capital Beltway as only those raised that close to purgatory are capable of resisting its powers. Those who come from outside soon have their guts torn apart and they are refilled with money and corrupt practices. Every member of Congress and their staffers cannot resist and act any other way because they almost all have lived beyond the normal laws. There is an easy means for telling if your members of Congress have taken the bait and become corrupted, their net worth. If your member of Congress was worth less than two million dollars before going to Washington and now are worth over five and likely twenty million dollars, then vote them out and fast. There is this neat little thing about being in Congress or a staffer; you are not subject to inside trading laws. This means you can buy stock in companies who are about to receive large sums of government contracts before the vote or anybody else knows about this and you can sell your stock in companies being investigated by Congress before the reports come out to the media or before they do not get that contract or their merger will not be approved, all things you know ahead of their actual occurrence. This allows you to trade stocks with great confidence and amass quite a large amount of wealth rather quickly. The catch is once you get onto this gravy train you will be voting your pocket and not your constituents’ pockets. This makes you a liability to your voters and the nation and makes you a bought person. This makes you toxic and you need replacing, period. We believe that most honest Americans would agree with this analysis, so please spread the world and let the people clean up the mess in Washington D.C.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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February 8, 2016

Israeli Possible Futures and American Elections

 

There have been many numbers of articles predicting the fate of Israel should one party or the other take the White House next January. Where this early on it is a bit futile to be second guessing the American people, there are some concrete facts we can observe more generally and some rather specific. The most obvious fact is that Israel will likely fair better with virtually any Republican in the White House than either of the Democrat frontrunners. This has been the trend which has steadily become absolute starting with President George H. W. Bush who was far less Israel friendly than President William Jefferson Clinton. The Republican side is the most undecided; so we will begin with them, though there are some tantalizing consequences for discussion on the Democrat side.

 

The knowledge that Israel would be better served by any Republican than with either Democrat frontrunner is a no-brainer; there are still sufficient untested Republicans which leave things unsettled there as well. The top three caucus winners in Iowa are a case in point. Ted Cruz is as pro-Israel as anyone could ask for and would likely increase whatever aid Israel claimed to have or needs identified by United States Military assessments. Mr. Cruz is also the one most likely to ignore the current State Department being fully aware that the United States Department of State is closer to being an enemy foreign agent than an American foreign policy agency. They are so far into the pocket of whatever Islamic forces appear dominant at any given time ignoring the small fact that the United States can alter that picture with the slightest influence added by clandestine units in their military. Truth be known, even with Russian influence, the United States can alter any reality on the ground should it so choose. The drawback would be risking a general confrontation with the Russians which would require active duty forces in numbers sufficient to require Congressional approval and thus general media coverage. Much of the American as well as European and the World media will bend left as the media is generally more an agent of leftist ideological proponents and similarly predisposed on reporting on the Middle East which had been made evident by their misreporting or bias and slanted reporting on the Arab Israeli conflict which is decidedly anti-Israel.

 

 

Ted Cruz for President

 

Donald Trump for President

 

Marco Rubio for President

 

Next down the caucus line is Donald Trump followed by Marco Rubio. Mr. Trump is completely untested in any and all policy positions and this is even more pronounced on foreign policy. Mr. Rubio is only slightly less of a mystery. The advantage Rubio has is he will likely follow the mainline Republican positions which had become more pro-Israel. Mr. Trump has talked a good game but his true heart is unknown and he is more likely to allow the State Department and the Pentagon along with whatever foreign advisors already exist within the government initially for his positions andthis would produce a period of time where he could damage Israeli relations even further. The question is how and if that would change when he received different and pressing information from the Israelis themselves and other contacts even to include business influence from people he has dealt with and gained a degree of trust. Rubio would also be somewhat untested and known to follow the advice he receives which then would rest heavily on his choice for Secretary of State and the weight he would put on Military and other foreign policy influences against the State Department. The one thing we know is Rubio is the candidate most likely to allow others from the Republican hierarchy to set his foreign policy. The decision, if one is honest, is still out on these two candidates who were definitive winners in Iowa.

 

Of the remaining herd of contenders who at this point are not even sufficient to be second tier and are closer to third tier with the one exception, the sole other Republican candidate to clear 2%, Ben Carson. Dr. Carson would necessarily need to rely heavily on experts and thus his positions would depend completely on who he appoints with the one obvious difference, the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Our feelings are Dr. Carson would be very similar to President George W. Bush than any other predecessor. Hopefully Dr. Carson could look at a map of the areas surrounding Israel and the Middle East and realize that Egypt is currently stable, Jordan is stable with a few big ‘if’s’ sitting on her northern and eastern borders and might need to rely heavily on Israeli intelligence and potentially military support should the Islamic State turn their eyes westward seeking a border with Israel which Jordan would provide. We hear the people with their maps out pointing to the fact that such a move would still leave the West Bank and Jordan River as impasses to an Islamic State assault on Israel. We feel it would be a near certainty that not only Israel would aid Jordan but so would Saudi Arabia and the other member nations to the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Currently the three main challenges which would face anyone stepping into office would be, in descending order, from the greatest threat down three steps are, Iran, Islamic State and the Iranian controlled terror networks of Hezballah, Islamic Jihad, to a lesser extent Hamas, and soon to be acquired Palestinian Authority which is likely to see a leadership change within two to three years as Abbas and family will take off for safer climes, probably somewhere in the United States under the witness protection agency’s assistance.

 

Ben Carson for President

 

The remainders of the Republican herd who we can take the measure of are Jeb Bush and Chris Christie who both talk a good pro-Israel game but remain untested as being governors they had little to deal with outside their States and were able to leave the big foreign policy decisions to Washington D.C. Both would likely play Republican ballgame until they were able to put their own people in place. This would mean heavy reliance on the State Department and its Arabist and Islamist leaning viewpoint and having a disparaging and deleterious effect on Israeli ability to trust any recommendations initially from the White House. The long term relations would be heavily dependent on the people placed in positions such as Secretary of State, State Department Middle East experts and department leaders, Ambassador to Israel, Ambassador to the United Nations, Security Advisor and on.

 

The Democrat side of the equation has one twist and is otherwise underwhelming. Bernie ‘Feel the Bern’ Sanders has a voting record only the Muslim Brotherhood would applaud. He has proven to have adopted the erroneous leftist view that Israel is guilty of the two greatest sins, colonialization and capitalism. On the latter, Israel can only plead guilty and proud of it. On the foremost charge Israel is provably not guilty. First piece of evidence is the Holy Bible and in particular, Torah. The Torah other than the five books which chronical the early life from Abraham forward of the Jewish people but is the deed of ownership of all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea and south of the Litany River, though the current border with Hezballah, oops, sorry, Lebanon will suffice. Don’t you just hate when that happens. Then there are the treaties, Mandates and conferences which resulted in the League of Nations declaration of intent and right of the Jews to their own state located where the Biblical accounts define their Holy Promised Lands. Bernie may have been born into a Jewish family but that little fact never softened his heart nor gave him an appreciation of the necessity for the Jewish People to have a place of refuge where they may defend themselves if again the world decides it is best to either actively slaughter the Jews or simply not lift a finger to save those few where offers are provided for their potential to save such as the SS St. Louis. We can place Senator Sanders on the State Department side and likely to continue the Obama aggressive policies concerning Israel and even supporting an Iranian centric Middle East and North Africa. Bernie Sanders has not proven to be a friend of Israel.

 

Hillary Clinton is an easier story. She really does not think all that highly of Jews. This was most evident when after Bill lost an election she angrily screamed at the campaign manager calling him some kind of derogatory form of Jew with questionable parenting engaged in a lewd act and the campaign manager was not even a Jew so the word Jew in this racy and lewd epithet could only have been included as a further form of insult. This episode has been known in political circles and in Israel for quite some time, since early in Bill Clinton’s Presidency and is chronicled here. Additionally there is e-mailgate, really, e-mailgate? Haven’t we beat the gate means scandal after Watergate back during President Nixon’s administration where Hillary Clinton did a part of the research on this case which might mitigate this and no that did not mean miti-gate conspiracy though somebody from some conspiracy website will see gate and jump ugly to conclusions. Hillary has to win the Democrat nomination and the election or she is toast and the FBI is the toaster. Any normal individual, we know that normal can never be used when the Clintons are involved, would have been detained, tried, convicted, appealed, lost and be serving time in a Federal Penitentiary. Should she lose anything leading to the White House she will be indicted immediately. As far as Hillary and Israel, could we simply state oil and water for the comparison. No, need more? Sure, Hillary is the water and Israel is the highly flammable oil floating above and Hillary lights a match above the liquid line causing all the oil to disappear in a burst of flames and smoke and the water barely gets any warmer. Hillary fully supported every Obama policy regarding Israel and with gusto. Yes, she pandered to the Jews in New York when she ran for the Senate from New York. She wanted to get elected and also have additional campaign funds. Any pro-Israel comments can be placed as purely political and playing a particular audience though probably not that necessary as most of the Jews supporting Hillary do not support Israel either. Having met too many such leftist Jews, by birth only, who line up lockstep in the parade of the Democrat mainstream which has been as hijacked. This claim can be validated by inspecting after terrorists strike and they attempt to mitigate any terror act claiming the person was hijacked and does not represent the Islam they are familiar with. Hillary will only be less of a detriment to Israel because she will pay little if any attention to foreign policy decisions leaving the majority to aids and reliance on the State Department, need more be said. The big question is rapidly becoming who will be placed replacing Hillary should she become toxic either by actual arraignment or simply too much stacked against her and her base, as fickle as it may be, simply melts away and she becomes an unviable candidate. Joe Biden has ruled out a run and in keeping with the first woman President motif, we would suggest they would have Hillary give her delegates to Elizabeth Warren who would sweep Bernie Sanders aside in a tidal change potentially notifiable from the ISS, from the International Space Station. The tide would sweep across the Democrat primary voters and her coronation would take place at the Democrat National Convention. Her likelihood of taking the Presidency would be a complete lock should she decide to choose Bernie Sanders as her running-mate as that addition to her ticket would cement the youth vote, a vote which proved so vital to President Obama. Lastly, Elizabeth warren polls excellently with Democrats and the population as a whole. We expect this last scenario to play out as it appears that the FBI has built their case and are waiting for her to falter to pull the pin on the indictment grenade which would finish her candidacy, something the Democrat main controlling interests just might prefer as they watch her national polling numbers tank.

 

Hillary Clinton for President

 

 

Bernie Sanders for President

 

There remains one critical position which almost nobody from either side is likely willing to take except one. The position is that there is not and never has been an honest partner for peace from the Palestinian Authority and most definitely not from Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Fatah, the PLO or any other Arab influence with the possible exception of Egyptian President Sisi whose efforts to force a reformation for Islam with the transformative impact greater than that of the Protestant Reformation in Europe and definitely more dangerous and threatening to President Sisi’s continued health. One can only hope for his success and pray for his continued health. As far as Israeli policy, any administrations pushing any deal other than the full annexation of the territory of Judea and Samaria with a weeding out of the most dangerous of the terror operatives and their leadership. Additionally, Israel could offer any Arab desiring to leave and never return, meaning never ever return, in exchange for a generous dispensation including purchase of their properties and holdings and a generous award of separation which would likely to exceed their expected lifetime earnings with the understanding that should they or any member of their family return they would be executed on sight. Any pushing of the deader than a doornail policy of two states living side by side in peace, security and prosperity is not realistic especially looking around the Middle East and North Africa and one sees a sea of turmoil and conflict with little comfort in sight for most of these conflicts and with all eyeing attacking Israel as a potentially solid option. How erroneous and self-destructive such a policy decision would prove, the fact it bears mention is a testament to the insanity which has soaked the region.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 26, 2016

What if Trump Trumps the Competition for Nomination?

 

Trump is still there against almost every prognosticator and editorial writer who keep interpreting polls and explaining how when people have to actually vote they will become serious and then they’ll vote for a serious candidate. Initially that serious candidate was Jeb Bush who flamed out really fast, then it became Governor Scott Walker but he soon decided to walk on home, then it became Senator Marco Rubio who has slowly sunk into the more of mediocracy and now the latest is former Ohio Governor John Kasich who is in third and a fairly distant third which will likely also fade in the setting poll numbers after Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina. The betting line now is after Trump, providing Trump snags victories in Iowa, New Hampshire and North Carolina, who will have polled well enough to have a reasonable standing to attempt to catch the nomination starting from behind, a not completely unheard of happening and, except for blessings in the Torah of second born sons, only considered expected in elections and the last two months of baseball season and a few other sports. The latest New Hampshire polling we were able to locate a poll out of New Hampshire which placed Donald Trump at twenty-seven per cent, John Kasich at twenty per cent, Marco Rubio at ten per cent, Ted Cruz at nine per cent, Chris Christie nine per cent and Jeb Bush eight per cent, with at least fifteen percent undecided as of the polling with some obviously supporting Rand Paul or Mike Huckabee and wise enough not to admit so. What is interesting about these polling numbers is that Senator Ted Cruz is receiving much of the bloviating all a titter, not to be confused for a twittered, about the Donald-Cruz one-on-one bashing, smashing, slamming, screaming with blood flowing and bruises and contusions on the stage and some Twitter smears in one-hundred-forty characters or less free-for-all. Now we see a poll of real people, not to accuse media personnel as being other than real or people but me thinks they would all protest too much and break the one-hundred-forty characters or less Twitter limits, and Cruz is in single digits making his chances as remote as expected from the start. So, what are we to take away from all of this?

 

Firstly, there is a lot of room for improved polling for former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and anyone else still in the race and below Senator Jeb Bush and his eight percent polling and that the media elite and controlling editors apparently have their own agenda. Let’s look at the media, or at least a wide swath of the media and even FOX from what we have seen and read. The media will push candidates which either have little hope of becoming the nominee such as Ted Cruz, one they expect would be a weak candidate against the expected Democrat candidate which will likely be Hillary Clinton or potentially Bernie Sanders. In either case, the universal choice happens to be the front-runner Donald Trump. The media was handed the perfect storm when Ted Cruz and Donald Trump held a one-on-one, mano-a-mano, slugfest which carried on for almost a week and was the only news event as all else fell off their radar screens. The media is simply giving their largest audience exactly what they are paying to hear, and that is whatever is the most sensationalistic and bombastic news with all the gory details and particulars their money can buy. The media live and breathe in the cities and the media which has a much larger area to cover is completely different and that is what conservative talk radio serves and they are covering the rest of the field and even they find they need to invest an inordinate amount of time covering the Donald Trump phenomena as that is where their audience desires to hear about because it affects them as well.

 

 

Democrat Front Runners Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders

Democrat Front Runners
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

 

 

The particulars about this year’s Republican race and the media covering it until the news is up to its neck in coverage of the Donald has part of its root in the fact that the Democrat race is a two person race from the outset and the only real question there is Hilary, Hilary and more Hilary. Bernie Sanders is sneaking up on the media because they did not believe the crowds he was drawing with his carnival like atmosphere were real because the media had been told by the Democrat establishment that they had piled all of their apples into Hilary as it was her turn. Well, the people have different ideas and Bernie has lit up their interest and he is now the face of the true believers on the left and the antiestablishment candidate. When the media realizes that Hilary had a credible challenger, even if it is Bernie Sanders, the media will clump around them and squeeze until the pressure breaks him or the primaries are over and all of a sudden Bernie will be their man and he was their man all along because Hilary was just too much yesterday’s news. If, or dare we say when, Bernie Sanders finished off the last gasp from the Clinton ‘machine,’ the question will be does the Clinton machine now swing in behind Bernie or will they hold their cards and donor lists close to their chests and hope he fails so they can begin claiming that 2020 was their target year all along. That decision may decide if there is a Clinton machine left after this race as if they do not back Bernie and he wins, that will be the end of it, done, over. Be that such as it may, the crash and burn by Hilary twice in a row and in both instances to what everyone claimed were too weak and unknown candidates who had one thing Hilary lacked, excitement. Hilary never ran for the nomination and simply waiting for what she claimed and honestly believed was inevitable, the White House and status as the first woman President and she offered nothing more and a whole lot less.

 

The Donald is proving that there is no inevitability in politics and that it truly has become a circus. Like Hilary on the democrat side there is Jeb, it’s my turn to be President, Bush who thought when he had the walk-in victory well in hand when he was the only candidate we had heard of and all the money was flowing his way, the republicans were almost giddy with the idea of another Clinton/Bush contest they figured they could win simply by showing up. Well, this year is looking anything but set in their ways, establishment backed Party politics and the people have finally decided it is their country and their Party and they are going to do what they desire and not just follow the Party line drawn for them. This is going to be the year of the populace come what may and the establishment is not what they want in either side. There is no ‘anybody but Bush’ line in the Republican race. The race was Jeb’s to lose and it appears he has done exactly that, lost it. What started this insanity which is quickly becoming the mainstream effort if, for no other reason, because that is the story the media may have caught onto right at the onset when Donald Trump, old Clinton friend and cohort grabbed large audiences to his appearances just as much to laugh and at some point turned and supported him just as Bernie has been doing on the Democrat side.

 

 

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

The Donald-Make America Great Again-Trump

 

 

So, what happens if Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? The question is more as to what will the Republican establishment do should Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination? It is important to remember that Donald Trump does not need the permission of the Republican Party as much as they will need his stamp of approval as he will have already passed the baptism by fire the campaign threw at him and came out on top. Further, Donald Trump does not need to rely upon the Party money to back him and he does not need the Party permission once he has won the nomination and he might do all that much better without the support of the Republican Party establishment. The favor the Republican Party elites would hand the American public would be for them to refuse to accept Trump as their candidate after he wins hands down the elective process and they deny him his rightful place through manipulating the Convention voting or other controls the Parties hold over their nomination processes in each state and in a larger part over their convention voting itself. It is still possible in both parties to win big in the primaries and still lose by a fairly surprising margin in the convention vote.

 

How is that, you ask? Without going through a ton of confusing math, here are the basics. Just because you win a state’s primary, do not go counting those delegates quite yet. Many states have adopted to use some method other than the winners take all allocation of their delegates. They get as confusing as having each voting district winner getting that delegate and the final delegates which would represent the Senators that state has in Congress usually going to the winner of the state overall but that can be altered and given by the Party bosses as they see fit. There are also the super delegates which are controlled by the elitists of the Party by which they retain some degree of control over who wins the nomination. Then there are all sorts of devious manner in which any selection process can be swayed and be controlled by the Party elite through such means as releasing the delegates from their presumed sworn obligation to vote as they were legally instructed by the states and then lean on the delegates seen as most likely to be susceptible to pressures and other manners of ‘buying’ their vote. Then there is the old adage that it is not who wins the election but who counts the votes that matters, also known as the Stalin approach to politics. After all, it was Joseph Stalin who pointed out this little fact that, “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” So, assume it safe to say that as long as Donald Trump does not win the necessary number of votes outright, even going down to the Congressional seats level and delegate by delegate count, then the often referred to as the powers that be will control who the candidate representing the Party and then appoint the person most likely to lose and have their political career ended once and for all. There are serious consequences for crossing the people when it comes to negating the power of their votes. That is a part of the animus against President Obama as he takes matters into his own hands bypassing the Congress.

 

Finally, just as Donald Trump could do by running as a third Party or no Party candidate, the Republican elites could put their influences and resources behind a third Party candidate either overtly or covertly using all sorts of weapons the largest of which is their influence over money. The Party establishment could decide suddenly that the Presidency is less important than winning Congress and claim in panicked desperate soundbites that they must, in order to save the Party, take all the Party monies and use them to elect every office other than the Presidency thus taking huge sums of money and other resources from the Presidential campaign with the most damaging part being the voter rolls and donations from the Presidential candidate in the final two to three months. Against Donald Trump such a move would be suicidal as he could finance his entire campaign without a penny from the Party but his slogan of win against the dirty money; after all there is nothing cleaner than a candidate using their own money to mount their campaign. Any nefarious or clandestine manner used to steal the campaign from the obvious and going away victor from the primary system would simply be the final nail in the Party coffin as when it comes down to it, what makes a political Party if it is not votes from the public, so ignore them at your own peril.

 

So, now Donald Trump is the Party candidate and will be listed on every state’s ballots as the republican nominee for President, now what? This is where the runner meets the road and we stop using these silly catch phrases as this is where the sloganeering gets decisive. The slogans are chosen and the campaign commercials are shot and the final race to the finish has been run and it is Election Day. There are numerous kinds of Republican and Democrat voters. There are the voters who always vote Party line, the absolute, who else would they vote for base. There are the base behind each candidate which may place some voters who were a different candidate’s true supporter who now must choose between two people they did not support or chose to stay home and watch the Gilligan’s Island Marathon on the who are we kidding channel. It are these stay at home my guy lost and I’m going to pout on election day hoping that if the Party candidate fails they can blame the Party for not seeing your infinite wisdom and intelligence when you supported candidate X and the Party foolishly tempted fate choosing candidate Y. The thing which has changed in politics has been the importance of turning out your Party’s base supporters which, except in the most unusual of cases, is not simply the important thing but the most vital thing in the universe. Elections here in the Twenty-First Century are not won on winning the middle voters, the average voter, as almost none of those voters who will cross ideological lines and even Party lines exist any longer. There are all kinds of single or three issue voters and the candidate needs to turn as many of these from their Party’s voters out to the polls. This is why many politicians have mastered talking out of both sides of their mouths simultaneously and some even manage saying three things at once all while stating nothing at all. This is seemingly more important for the conservative candidate as they have far more to lose if they do not hold true to every single issue which gets tricky when there are opposites within your Party structure. The easiest issues are gun rights and abortion. There are those Second Amendment voters on both sides of the abortion issue just as there are pro-life voters on either side of the gun issue. There is no way of parsing these dichotomies which will produce a guaranteed victory and all one can hope to do is tell the truth and hope they have not hurt themselves too badly.

 

These such issues are often far more damaging for conservatives because liberal media types will always attempt to peel back supporters by asking pointed and sharp edged questions on the most contentious issues hoping to cut voters away from the conservative candidate one-by-one if need be and conservative media will question them similarly claiming to want to present the truth to the voters. In elections there is such a thing as too much truth, especially for conservative candidates as each truth may cost them the election. This is especially true in the Presidential elections as there are far more liberal voters who will hold their nose and vote for the liberal party candidate, the Democrat just because they are not that evil person over on the other side of the ballot. Conservatives need a reason to vote for you and not just I’m not that other person, I am the Republican as that does not walk the walk or even talk the talk according to all too many voters. Those who claim they cannot vote for Trump because he used to be a liberal would likely not have liked Winston Churchill as he was among the left when he was young and somewhere during World War I he became a conservative and an ardent proponent of being prepared to fight a war when it is easily won rather than refuse to face facts that a storm is brewing. He had a number of great sayings on just that subject but I would rather use a different category on which he was also a great and wise discerner of humankind. Sir Winston Churchill stated, “If you’re not a liberal at twenty you have no heart, if you’re not a conservative at forty you have no brain.” That’s a great stopping point, till tomorrow.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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