Beyond the Cusp

May 14, 2015

When Polls Lie and Deceive What to Believe

 

In the last three major elections in the democrat and republican electing world the polls were as misleading as one could imagine. Not only did they get it wrong, it appeared that their polling was just as corrupted as their reporting. In this last election in the United States the polls predicted minor gains for the Republicans in Congress but with the Democrats probably retaining a slight majority in the United States Senate. The Republicans gained sufficient seats to rise to a dominating position in the Senate and further improved their position in the House of Representatives and as if that was not sufficient, the Republican Party also swept a number of State and local elections placing the party in a position of dominance unseen in decades. The liberal states of Massachusetts and Maryland elected Republican Governors despite their being the bluest of blue states.

 

In Israeli elections the polling and every indicator predicted that the Zionist Union, the marriage of the Labor Party with Tzipi Livni’s Hatnua Party, was going to sweep Prime Minister Netanyahu out of office. Further, it was predicted that with the aid of election specialists who had assisted in charting the course of the reelection of President Obama running a political operation called V2015 run by Obama election strategist Jeremy Bird and using the cryptic slogan of “Anyone but Bibi” was going to put in place an undefeatable election day tsunami sweeping the Zionist Union into power. Somehow Bibi Netanyahu won taking a commanding thirty seats beating the odds where the polling predicted the Zionist Union beating Netanyahu and the Likud twenty-six seats to a mere twenty-three seats. How could it have been polled so wrong such that the real results were Likud with Thirty and Zionist Union garnering twenty-four coming in a weak second. Again the polling was so wrong one could have thought they were blindsided by the actual results.

 

Finally there were the recent British elections where Ed Miliband and his Labour Party were supposed to sweep the Tories and David Cameron from office was also dead wrong with the conservative Tories and Cameron embarrassing the Labour Party so completely that Miliband resigned without bothering to wait for the broom to sweep him aside and replace him atop the Labour Party. This was simply the cherry atop the three layer cake with each layer sweeter than the previous as election results made lies out of the predictions by the pollsters. That begs the question as to how could they have gotten all three so completely wrong and should we believe anything we read about in polling.

 

There could be any number of reasons for the inaccuracy of polling from improper reading of the results leading to massaging the results in order to match the pollsters political preferences or that the media intentionally went with slanted polling data knowingly but fully believing that they had sufficient sway to bring about the results they desired simply by reporting the results they desired and willing them into existence. It is entirely possible that the methods utilized by the polling companies favored the liberal leftists over the right wing conservatives. One method of polling which had found produces such results is to utilize polling conducted by using land-line phone numbers during mainly daytime hours when the majority of the people who have jobs are working at those jobs and therefore are not home to take any polling calls, which is also why they use land-lines and not mobile, though even mobile polling would likely produce similar results just less skewed to the left. Then again, if people are anything like the folks I know then they only use their cell phones and only have a land-line because it came with the package they get their internet access or television cable and never give out that number thus never answer the land-lined knowing that the call is either a poll or telemarketer and either way undesired. But maybe the polling methodology was not to blame but the people themselves are the problem.

 

What if the people have been so beaten down by the seemingly endless efforts to force political correctness along with leftist propaganda down our throats using news reporting which is more electioneering or campaigning or simply editorial opinions wrapped up to appear like news coverage that the people react repeating the touch-words or positions constantly pushed upon them by a media which has completely turned to the left beyond any reason. People may have reached the point that they find it easier and less complicating for their lives to simply regurgitate the leftist mantras to avoid offending the sensibilities of anyone leftward-leaning within earshot who would immediately slowly turn in their direction and then questions by question slowly turn further until they are glaring directly at the malcontent who spoke words which are taken as offense and must be challenged until all descending conservative expression has been wiped from the public sphere. Where this may have silenced those conservatives who simply take the path of least resistance which in public discourse means not upsetting the leftist sloganeering policer of their immediate space, they cannot yet accompany everyone into the voting booth where everyone is free at last to vote their true mind and not be made to suffer the umbrage and wrath of the leftists in our midst. Perhaps that has so swept and crept its way into our lives that anytime other than within the safe confines of the voting booth we will simply become leftists for the duration while secretly voting our inner Churchill, Thatcher, Reagan, Jefferson, John Adams or Menachem Begin when the chips are to be cast, gathered and counted in order that our captains for the ship of state are selected.

 

Think about debates at work with associates or discussions with fellow congregants at our places of worship or wherever we toil, gather or socialize and my bet is there is at least one person in each of those settings whose stand is for Big Brother and makes sure any wrong-think is made sufficiently uncomfortable that fairly soon all but the lost causes simply speak the words our monitors desire to hear and keep our real thoughts happily dancing within our minds unmolested by the minders. There are also those few outliers who are true believers and speak their minds no matter who may add their names to a list of those to be watched, as many have made so many of such lists that one more will make little difference. These are the ones who can often give as good as they get. Only the few ever make friendship bonds with these people and if we should we often request they not reveal our true political kinship as we are amongst the quiet quiescence slumbering through life passing by semiconscious of the views expressed around us as there is nothing worth our fighting for as we still have the blessing of honest representation of our votes. Should we lose such honest accounting of the ballots then will we allow ourselves to be availed of out of our quiet accommodations and comforting silence and then hear us roar for when it comes to our votes we will not sleepwalk through such offense. There is much we can allow to pass as fact when we know it to be different, but the honest representation of our vote we draw the line and demand honest representation.

 

It is little wonder that those in the media can walk around claiming in all honestly that every person with whom they speak of such things all supported President Obama and thus it was an absolute impossibility that the President was reelected by so close a margin. These people are not delusional because they mean it when they claim that election results were completely skewed, opposed to the polling, and they are truly flabbergasted and personally destroyed that the Congress or Knesset or Parliament which was elected could have gone so wrong, as in their worlds their viewpoints are correct, good and the only honest result possible and the other side can only possibly win by deceit or trickery. We are all living more and more in small echo chambers where we hear little from the other side of political and social issues. Our bubbles are carefully chosen and seldom do we hear a disparaging word and our skies are not cloudy all day. Often we even go so far as to carefully choose from whence we receive our news so as to hear only those reports which inform us of how impossible it was that we lost an election or that the results were so much closer than they should have been. The most often heard reason for any loss in an election was simply that our side did not get the vote out and turnout favored the other side. There was a perfect such comment made after the recent midterm elections in the United States when President Obama actually had the nerve to claim, “To everyone who voted, I want you to know that I hear you. To the two-thirds of voters who chose not to participate in the process yesterday, I hear you too.” I likely could spend the rest of my life and never find somebody in high office who is so out of touch with reality that they would make such a statement. For your amusement, here is the comment straight from Obama’s mouth.

 

 

 

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 28, 2013

Iranian Nuclear Paradigm Changed

When Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made his speech using a picture of a primitive bomb to describe the then Israeli Red Line concerning the Iranian nuclear program he stated that should the Iranians enrich sufficient uranium to 20% to be able to then further process it and attain sufficient uranium enriched to 90% or more to be able to make an atomic device then Israel would have to act as the threat would then become too great to ignore any longer. That Red Line has blurred out of existence since then as the Iranians have made advances in their centrifuge designs which would now permit them to enrich uranium straight from approximately 3% to the 90% plus for weapons grade uranium. This now means that the debate the Iranians are engaging the P5+1 in the nuclear talks where they are offering to no longer enrich uranium to 20% in exchange for the lifting of the majority of the sanctions, especially the sanction on their oil production and sales is a ruse and a false promise as they know full well that they are no longer constrained to need to have 20% enrichment in order to have breakout capacity to reach nuclear weapons capability. The Iranians are promising to only enrich uranium to 3% to 3.5% and no longer enrich beyond that level because they no longer require the higher level yet President Obama and the European leaders are all pronouncing the great willingness of the Iranians to meet the demands of the Western leadership and that they are showing willingness to prove they truly are not interested in attaining nuclear weapons. Either the Western leaders are being poorly advised, are complete fools or are intentionally ignoring realities because they fear actually taking any stand which might force them to back their positions with actions.

 

It is highly unlikely that the Western leadership really has been so badly mislead and ill-informed that they actually believe that the Iranian offer has any validity at this late date. The Iranians are once again playing the Western leaders for foolishly becoming accomplices in the Iranian drive to set themselves up in a position to be able to produce a series of nuclear devices in rapid order taking less than two months with their first device ready within a matter of mere weeks. The Iranians feel that the western leaders are willing to play the part of fools mainly because they have been given signals by the administration of President Obama that the President wishes to avoid any possibility of a conflict and is willing to turn a blind eye and permit Iran to proceed all the way to nuclear armaments as long as no blame can be cast upon him and the other leaders. President Obama and the other Western leaders will hold up the presentation from Prime Minister Netanyahu from years ago and pretend that by having the Iranians agree to inspections and stopping production of uranium to 20% enrichment a great agreement has been reached and the threat of a nuclear Iran has been successfully avoided. And should you be waiting for the mainstream media to report the reality that this agreement not to enrich uranium to 20% as what it is, an empty promise and a ruse, then you will end up just as poorly informed as will the Western leadership once Iran tests their first nuclear device. What should be the concern is exactly how and where will the Iranians test their first nuclear device. It is not as if their designs have not been proven as they most assuredly have been advised by the North Koreans, Chinese, and the Russians and their designs have likely been tested by these same nations on their simulation computers and proven to be proper designs. Actually needing to explode a nuclear device to test its design has not been a necessity for decades now and the Iranians most certainly have had access to simulation programs with which to test their designs and have even figured out the yields to within 10%.

 

Since they will not need to do an actual test, then the sole reason the Iranians would have for exploding a nuclear device would be to announce their accomplishment to the world. One might safely bet that with their device’s functionality guaranteed that the Iranians will announce their entry into the nuclear armed club by actually deploying a nuclear device either by having terrorists transport the device and detonate it on the desired target or by launching the device and striking one of the nations Iran considers to be their most serious of enemies. This would mean that their target of first resort would be either the United States or Israel. The argument for Iran striking Israel first is that such an attack would go extremely far in heaping prestige upon them throughout the Muslim and Arab worlds. The reason behind striking the United States first is somewhat more complicated but put simply is it would give almost the same prestige and would remove the larger strike back ability if they were to utilize their nuclear device or devices to generate EMP waves destroying much of the United States electronic infrastructure and other electronic controlled systems and items such as communications, many modern vehicles, diesel-electric trains, the entire electronic grid, computer controlled systems and countless other systems. Such an attack might render the United States cut off from even being able to contact their forces outside the country initially providing Iran with the necessary tie to launch numerous other attacks against secondary targets and other countries they may feel require neutralizing. As we have discussed previously, the Iranians have been training for an EMP delivery launch sequence for the past decade and have become quite adept and accomplished at doing so. They have even mastered launching such attacks off of cargo ships and barges such that they could launch such an attack from the oceans just off the coasts of the United States which would negate virtually all of the ballistic missile defenses from being effective at all. Despite this being something that has been discussed in Congress for years and by the military for even longer, the United States remains extremely vulnerable to an EMP attack such as the type Iran has been practicing and mastered the tactical methods in performing such a launch sequence. A nuclear armed Iran is a threat to far more than just Israel and do not let the United States leadership tell you different or ever let them ignore such a dire threat because to ignore such a threat is to invite such an attack. The Greek City States ignored King Leonidas who still took his three hundred Spartans of his personal guard and stood against the threat and held them at Thermopylae facing an enemy numbering close to half a million men for three days. Those three days resulted in saving the entirety of the Greeks from falling and guess who their enemy was. That’s right, it was the Persians, the very same that today we call Iran for reasons that are interesting to research as well but will wait for another article.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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