Beyond the Cusp

March 21, 2017

Syria Attempting to Broaden War Threatening Israel

 

Israel sent her warplanes into Syria this past weekend in order to intercept yet another attempted shipment of weapons potentially including advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon arming further the Hezballah terrorists who rule the Bekaa Valley and most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Hezballah has already taken control of most of Lebanon and has indirect, more like reviewing rights of any actions or laws, of the Lebanese government, an improvement of sorts over the direct rule they held a few years back. Apparently trying to rule and fight wars with Israel was taking too great a threat of Israel holding Lebanon responsible. Now Lebanon has been afforded plausible deniable for Hezballah military actions which has not helped much with the events across the border and within their borders with Syria. The length of the reach by Hezballah included their required approval of choice for the new Prime Minister when the new government was formed. Full display of both Lebanon’s difficulty and the threat to Israel are obvious in the map below. Syria will try to drag Israel into the war once again so they can claim to be fighting a holy war against the Zionist entity and will use all of Hezballah’s abilities if need be to accomplish this. That makes the weapons Hezballah already possess and any they are able to smuggle all the more important and why Israel must prevent certain weapons systems of ever being smuggled into Lebanon and to Hezballah forces there. That was the reason for the raid and why there may be more in the future with each one presenting the same difficulties.

 

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon
Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

 

Israeli sources including Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman reported the raid was a success and that all planes returned and were undamaged. The Syrians reported things differently claiming to have shot down one Israel aircraft and damaging another. No pictures of the destroyed Israeli plane were provided to back the Syrian claims and they have made similar claims on previous occasions including once against American aircraft under President Obama’s brief attempt at a Syrian campaign against Islamic State. The Syrians also fired four missiles into Israel with one being intercepted by the Arrow III system which was the first real world use of the system which operated well in all aspects. The remaining three landed in open areas, two in the Israel area of the Jordan Valley and the final one landed in Jordan reportedly causing no damage or loss of life. The attempt by Syria to provide their Hezballah ally with rockets is far from new and Israel has taken to only intercepting weapon systems which would provide Hezballah with additional capabilities with the most serious being anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. The Iranians have been attempting to provide the Hezballah terrorists with the Chinese C803 anti-ship missiles as well as SAM missile batteries of a more advanced series than those in the Bekaa Valley already. This probably requires an update on the extent to which Hezballah has been rearmed since the United Nations, United States and European Union guaranteed after the Second Lebanon War as part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the doubling the size of the UNIFIL forces who were assigned to prevent Hezballah from rebuilding their tunnel and bunker systems and rearming with rockets, let alone missiles.

 

The UNIFIL forces have been photographed allowing and even assisting in loading their trucks to move Hezballah munitions, armaments, rockets and personnel around in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, the area where they are presumably tasked to prevent Hezballah from accomplishing such minor details. Hezballah had completely restructured their tunnel systems, underground bunkers, and massively extended these systems and improved their command and control as well as their communications systems and networks. This will have massive positive effect on their abilities and lethality should there ever be a need for Israel to attempt to blunt their threat to Israeli existence. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezballah was suspected of having stocks reaching as high as thirty-five-thousand rockets of which a very small percentage were of the larger varieties able of reaching beyond Haifa and even fewer which had any guidance whatsoever. This had vastly changed. Their current armaments include tens of thousands of missiles with ranges reaching the entire length of Israel carrying as high as five-hundred kilo warheads which also makes the nuclear arms capable. The various names are easy to remember and they are with their range, diameter and payloads as follows:

Katyusha approx. 132mm diameter range 10 kilometer with a 5 kg payloads
FAJR-3 approx. 240mm diameter range of 43 kilometer with a 45 kg payload
FAJR-5 approx. 233mm diameter range of 75 kilometer with a 175 kg payload
Fateh-110/M-600 approx. 0.61 m diameter range of 300 kilometer with a 500-650 kg payload
Zelzal-2 approx. 610 mm diameter range of 210 kilometer with a 600 kg payload
SKUD-D approx. 0.88 m diameter range of 700 kilometer with a 1000 kg payload

The map below indicates the ranges as they pertain to Israel and the danger becomes evident, very evident. This is one of many reasons that Israel has developed the world’s most advanced layered missile defense systems and is working on secondary and triple level means of intercepting all varieties of indirect weaponry including missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars. Israelis are thankful as many lives have been saved and apparently more will need these systems in the future, which is unfortunate.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah has not just tens of thousands of rockets and missiles but somewhere approaching two-hundred-thousand of varying sizes and capabilities. Additionally, there have been reports that through captured weaponry from various Syrian rebel groups that Hezballah has come into possession of a limited number of American MANPAD anti-aircraft weapons as well as similar systems designed from Russian and Chinese types of anti-aircraft weapons of a similar nature. These anti-aircraft and any anti-ship missiles which the Iranians have managed to provide to Hezballah are amongst the most dangerous should another war break out. The last war already provided ample indications that Hezballah has received numerous effective anti-tank rockets and have developed very effective tactics for their deployment. This was one area which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) needed to develop some form of countermeasures. The greatest threat is to the Israeli public as Hezballah’s numbers of missiles are sufficient to use for swarm attacks as they can lose large numbers to interception providing they are able to get some percentage through the Israeli defenses. The numbers of missiles makes air superiority a necessity which is why Israel cannot allow large numbers or advanced air defenses to be provided to Hezballah as only through air superiority can Israel successfully destroy the stores of missiles and their launchers before they are sent in numbers over Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beersheba and numerous others.

 

The difference between Hezballah and Israel is a familiar one but still important to mention while we are on the subject. First, Hezballah uses identical tactics as does Hamas and will the PLO, which is to say the Palestinian Authority when they decide they have gained all they can through blackmail and using the world to demand Israel kowtow to demands for their surrender and return to their terrorist ways, which means firing from behind the people they claim to protect while Israel does everything possible to protect civilians, both Israeli and Palestinians. Hezballah has placed their rocket launchers inside civilian homes and place their command bunkers under hospitals, schools and even Mosques. They defend their positions using civilians and store their weapons and rockets in civilian’s homes, Mosques and schools. Hezballah builds tunnels and bunkers in which they secure their fighters and civilians are forced to remain on the surface usually near Hezballah fighter locations. Further, Hezballah uses villages and towns as their operations centers and builds fighting positions within these locations often people’s homes, schools and other public locations. The Hezballah tactic is to maximize civilian deaths, hardships and destruction of civilian structures all such that at the end of the conflict they can show this destruction to the media as proof of Israel offenses claiming the Israelis simply attacked civilian homes and structures out of spite and not because of their being used as military enforcements. Often the media can tell the claims are bogus as they can see the fortifications and still take their photographs using such angles so as to avoid displaying the fortifications while maximizing the obvious damage. Often the media has their photos and stories edited by Hezballah and in order to be permitted to return and cover future events each media outlet is required to follow the Hezballah story otherwise their entire news service will be barred from covering anything in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel the media is permitted complete freedom and is free from any forms of censorship whatsoever which is why often the bad stories come out about Israel while Israeli enemies always get star treatment by the media. Israel suffers from the identical media difficulty that the United States also faces with total freedom of the media. When you have no operational control over the media and their stories and your enemy exercises total media control and is willing to lie and the media willingly follows along with their messages, it should be no surprise that Israel has the media difficulty.

 

The final warping of the media coverage is the often result in civilian casualties between Israel and her enemies. The extensive efforts that Israel goes to in order to keep its civilians protected, its enemies all spend seemingly an equal amount of effort to maximize the destruction of civilian structures and the numbers of dead and injured civilians they are able to produce. This leads to a high civilian casualty count while Israel often suffers minimal civilian deaths and casualties. Israelis are well trained and are conscious of the closest shelter when there is a war and are willing to drop anything including prayers to head to their closest shelter. Israel’s enemy governments and terror forces consider shelters as a waste of resources which could be better used to purchase weapons. This leads to a civilian casualty count in Israel often approaching zero while her enemies who place their fighting forces and weapons stores and rocket tubes within civilian homes and use civilians as human shields suffer civilian casualties in the tens, hundreds or unfortunately thousands. Still, it has been shown and witnessed that Israel does far more than any other military to protect and avoid civilian casualties on either side even to the point of calling off strikes to avoid civilian casualties even when the civilians have voluntarily gathered to protect terrorists. The IDF is amongst, if not the, most moral military in all history. Don’t take our word for it; listen to Colonel Richard Kemp in the video below giving evidence to the United Nations.

 

 

An example came when the IDF had three terrorist leaders holed up in a Mosque in Gaza. The IDF troops refused to enter the Mosque as this is something they avoid out of respect for a house of worship (you never want to see what Israel’s enemies do to captured Synagogues). Hamas radio called for women to rush to the Mosque with some extra burkas and within minute’s two dozen women in burkas and some carrying burkas entered the Mosque. Soon afterwards, the women left the Mosque as a mob hiding the three terrorists wearing burkas somewhere in the group. The IDF officer ordered his men to simply leave as the alternative would have been unthinkable for IDF soldiers to potentially appear to accost Muslim women.

 

In conclusion, the problem facing Israel also involves Russia as the ally and enforcement arm of Syria. Israel coordinates with the Russian commanders before sending any aircraft into Syrian airspace such that Russian and Israeli aircraft are not in conflict. Thus far, by all information, the Russians have not been sharing such information with the Syrians intentionally but there is obviously some leakage. When Bashir al-Assad’s military commanders receive hints or information of an imminent Israeli strike they inform their militias and other unattached forces who have been armed and often actually are Hezballah and receiving support directly from Iran. Syria would love to open a front against Israel in the hopes of internationalizing the war and bringing it before the United Nations General Assembly where Israel will be once again denounced. The end result will be a front opened across the Golan Heights with Hezballah attacking from the Israeli northern border backed by the Lebanese Army which is American armed including tanks and aircraft. As they have already been given these arms, the merging of the Lebanese Army with Hezballah being placed under their control, Israel may be facing the combined forces of Hezballah, Lebanon, Syrians and presumably independent militias all of which are backed by Russia. Russia is not in any means taking action against Israel and with Iran gathering forces and aligning forces under a unified command group independent of the Russians, is going to put Putin into a delicate position. When these forces finally open a full force assault upon Israel in an attempt to bring things before the United Nations where Israel will be blamed for initiating the violence and this will place Russia in the position of deciding whether to pull out of Syria demanding that their port facilities in Latakia as Russian protected territory and otherwise Russian forces will stand down and release Syria to its fate or Russia continuing to back Syria and very possibly be drawn into a war with Israel. Should Russia engage Israeli forces, be it on the Golan Heights or against aircraft in Syrian or Lebanese territories, then what does the United States do and NATO and the United Nations. There is a distinct possibility that the United States will use these events to press Israel into making a crippling series of concessions to Abbas giving him his state with the Green Line as a border as a prerequisite for continued aid while facing the war on the Israeli north against Syria, Lebanon, Hezballah, and full Russian assistance and Iran who will also add another front at some point using Hamas on the Israeli southern border along Gaza and with aid of militias along the Sinai-Negev front. This would soon include the Palestinian Authority as Abbas would be overthrown immediately after the forced peace and the withdrawal of the IDF either by ISIS or Hamas bringing this as well as the final front. This could lead to Israel fighting a war with fronts on all borders even to include the Mediterranean Sea leaving Israel in a desperate war for her existence and Israel would at best finally establish her borders as the Jordan River and hold the southern borders while establishing the Litani River and Golan Heights as their northern border and end these wars by establishing defendable borders with the downside of the entire nations requiring the rebuilding of her entire infrastructure. It would take Israel over a decade to rebuild but once the restructure has been completed, Israel would be the envy of the world when it comes to infrastructure and the Third Temple would be constructed and the Arabs who are unwilling to live supporting the Jewish State deported and finally a bright future before her.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 26, 2016

What is the World Going to Do, Hate Us?

 

Israel is facing any number of hard and soft threats. The hard threats are such items as the Syrian War spilling intentionally or inadvertently over our border, the nuclearization of Iran, especially when combined with the Iranian threats to annihilate us, and other threats to invade or otherwise cut Israel from the rest of the world, the end result if the BDS movement (boycott, divestment and sanction) ever succeeded in their efforts. There are some more distant hard threats such as complete sanction under Chapter Seven by the United Nations Security Council with their declaring Israel to have been formed illegally and stripping Israel of any recognized borders and calling for her isolations, their recognizing the Arab claims for Palestine replacing Israel with this new entity or simply demanding Israel withdraw to within the Green Line making that the recognized border between the two states. All of these threats would not hold complete validity until the United Nations would begin to form a military alliance to force such a resolution upon Israel or if any of the major powers such as Russia, Chins, the United States, the European Union or any group of nations capable of fielding a sizeable military force intent on forcing the issue upon Israel. Most, if not all, of these scenarios hold no possibility at this time and some are items for future sleepless nights if not prevented before their initiation. The nuclearization of Iran at the very top of that list but there we should have allies as such a threat to Israel being launched would establish the Iranian intent to use their nuclear weapons status as a weapon with which to threaten or annihilate any of their adversaries which includes every Sunni State, every non-Islamic state and most obviously the United States, Europe, and eventually China, Russia and the rest of the world on their way to world domination, one of Iran’s previously stated goal as their part of completing the commands of the Quran as they interpret it to demand of them. These threats can only be defeated by military readiness.

 

Israel had faced such threats in the past and fared poorly for quite some time. What the Jewish people are more threatened by is the same threat they have faced since the beginning of history, the threat of annihilation being bandied about as a stated goal by groups or nations. There have been times throughout Jewish history with the earliest being the enslavement in Egypt. This led to some of the most influential experiences of any people on the remainder of the world throughout the rest of history. The Bible as in Old Testament was a direct result as was the New Testament and Christianity and later the Quran and Islam and there have been a few other offshoots of these into separate groups through history. The Ten Commandments were given at Mount Sinai which has often been referred to as the basis for much of the body of law in the Western World. There was also the idea first given that a King or any governing body must be made to live under the same code of laws as anybody else and that no ruler should become wealthy off of public service as enriching oneself at the public’s expense is the worst form of tyranny, that of separating the rulers from the peoples. The concept of a day off from work, the weekend, the concept that slaves must be set free and the rules set forth for the humane treatment of a slave where they are to share and eat as does their owner and their family and other similar laws. When one comes across the law which states any slave may choose to remain as a slave with their master for life must so mark himself with a mark on their ear that one realizes that slave was more of a reference as a worker more so than a slave. There are numerous other concepts drawn from the Jewish writings which are still seen as appropriate today, it is really a shame that many are not extended to the Jews or Israel.

 

Most of the problems Israel has deal with the Arabs, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas and Islamic Jihad and how the stories related to these are retold in the world media. One might safely say the majority of the media, particularly the more leftist leaning media have a real hard time with Israel basically discounting anything and everything they claim. These same news outlets copy PA, Hamas and other propaganda casting Israel as an evil entity word for word with absolutely no check on the validity. The claim that had these news sources have stated has been the rapid speed of the news business today and that getting the breaking story out is often a greater demand than checking its validity. Of course any commentary released by Israel must be checked and rechecked and then weighed for its imperative need to be given any priority. That is the longwinded way of saying whatever Israel claims is invalid. Some of the reporting of the current Arab war on Israel which has escalated once again where there are at least an average of three to five assaults per day not even counting the rocks, large rocks hurled at vehicles hoping to cause them to cause the driver to lose control and crash and possibly kill any number of passengers. The claim given by the PA is that these attacks are completely unplanned and they have no control over the perpetrators who are acting out of frustration with the settlements and the inability of Israel to make peace. This is obvious as it is exactly what the media throughout the world has had to say. The fact that Mahmoud Abbas and the PA are running and indoctrination assault using social media, television, radio, music, the school curriculum and virtually every other ploy to instigate a many attacks as possible. That truth is also missing from reporting. One of the best headlines which had since been scrubbed as it was replaced with one somewhat less negative. The initial claimed that two Palestinian youths killed on bus, twelve injured. The part left out was that the two ‘Palestinian youths’ were cousin age fourteen and sixteen were armed and stabbing their way through the bus until they came upon police who ended their rampaging through the bus terminal. They had managed to injure to varying extents twelve people and were charging the security officers who ended up shooting them ending their stabbing their way to martyrdom. This is the other fact often left from the coverage is that these youths, and they are unfortunately youths, will continue to assault people and kill people until they are rendered incapable of continuing which too often equates to dead. Even Mahmoud Abbas stated that these young people were seeking martyrdom and lauded them for their courage. I have come over the years to realize that though the officers, the hierarchy of Arab Palestinian society constantly congratulate the suicide bombers and the current trend of stabbing suicide martyrs claiming how glorious such a death is and its rewards in heaven but do not appear themselves all that anxious to lead by example and place themselves in harm’s way. The leaders and much if not all their family members remain safely locked while building themselves some really luxurious palatial homes. Below find Mahmoud Abbas’s plans for his new residence and some of the other opulent houses, chalets, palaces, not sure on what the best word is to describe such homes. Abbas’s compound will cost around thirteen million dollars.

 

 

Mamoud Abbas planned masion estimated cosr of thirteen million dollars but will end up costing far more after required kickbacks

Mansions of Palestinian Elites

Mansions of Palestinian Elites

 

 

Perhaps it is because of the nice homes that these men do not volunteer for martyrdom attacks. Where that may appear to be an argument for economic development to improve the situation of the average Arab, that might not be the end all because nobody no matter their business acumen can make their employees as wealthy as the people whole homes are pictured. The one thing that can be guaranteed about the owners of these homes, they are either higher-ups in the PA government or are close friends with people in the PA government as nobody gets that wealthy without Mahmoud Abbas and his henchmen permitting such which means there has to be some I scratch your back and your scratch mine going on. The one item never explored (I hear it coming that I have said this a gazillion times and I will probably do it a gazillion more) is exactly what the PA would accept as a final, repeat final, solution with Israel. Once upon a time a PA leader named Yasser Arafat, you may have heard of him, answered the question of what would it take. His answer was half of Jerusalem, and over 95% of the West Bank. That response was given to President Clinton who rushed to Prime Minister Barak and presented the terms. If you can find the video of Madeline Albright waddling running after Yasser Arafat as he fled to building to a running waiting car, please send it to us with link as we will use it. After that the PA has refused to give any real set of condition and will never give their actual demand. What is their actual demand, you ask? They want a State of Palestine replacing Israel from the River to the Sea. This demand also means that they are honestly aware that Israel has legal international claim to all the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. Mahmoud Abbas knows that he has to demand all of the lands such that Israel cannot acquiesce as the next step once the world, or the United Nations, fits them their demand and the world powers are finally willing to commit massive troops to enforce such a deal and understand that what that means; the annihilation of over six-million Jews and almost a quarter of a million Christians being likely to be murdered as soon as the PA is replaced with Islamic State/Hamas.

 

The really big secret in the Middle East has been how Hamas is burning the candle at both ends and likely to get away with it for the time being. Hamas is cooperating with Islamic Jihad in the Sinai while also accepting funding from Iran as well as Muslim Brotherhood. Hamas is linked to Iran and is playing a second front with which Iran can harass Israel with. Hamas also takes direction from the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda, and Islamic State. All of the above except Iran are Sunni while Iran is Shia. The question is where will Hamas fall when Iran and Islamic Jihad lock horns? Our feeling is who care as long as they destroy one another. I apologize, that was not nice, how about only cripple? The problem is the world will denounce Israel because they are seen as the stronger force picking on powerless Arab Palestinians. The reality is that the PA goes through a budget of trillions of dollars each year and still has the audacity to claim they are broke every three or four months. Israel also receives support from the United States with a small iron bridge support cable namely they must spend the funds in the United States on military equipment solely while the PA gets to use their money, a measly half million alone from the United States plus whatever the United States pays to support UNRWA plus the unpublicized funding from extremist sources such as the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey and who knows where else (Qatar maybe or are they too mild). The forces surrounding Israel are dangerous, well-armed and immune to any sanction from the United Nations or any Western Powers, bit that most would denounce, let alone harm, any of the forces challenging Israel.

 

Let’s take a quick tour of the forces threatening Israel. The PA which received more money than anyone can track and pays all of the Hamas government salaries, the Hamas and Islamic Jihad forces used as Gaza Security (or in otherwords all of them) and likely helps with everything it believes it can legally and not anger the United States. Hamas gets funding from every direction in the Arab and Islamic worlds as well as European governments (many of whom have demanded Israel negotiate with them as they believe they are just one of the boys who really hate Israel) and UNRWA as well as many other United Nations funding options. Hezballah is the attack puppy of Iran and runs Lebanon with an iron fist and, as the Syria war has proven beyond any doubt, is at the beck and call of Iran to perform any service they require and anyone other than Iran will have to stand in line until Iran is not using Hezballah, otherwise they are in the clock and you can just wait. These are some of the threats Israel faces. There is also Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Islamic State, IRGC and the Muslim Brotherhood financed forces as well as some other lesser forces. With these forces threatening Israel on every border Israel needs to redefine their borders such that they are far more defendable. What does that mean? The first step is that as long as the PA is encouraging stabbing, vehicular, rock throwing, firebombing and other assaults with the intent of murdering Israelis, everywhere else in the world that is an act of war which is responded to forcefully. The new border after everyone known to be attached directly to the decision making processes of the PA driven beyond Israeli borders and any terrorist having them and their entire family, cousins, uncles, aunts, mother, father, brothers, sisters, wife, children, and other first step family members all deported. Then, when Hamas and Islamic Jihad take their next missile and rocket attacks and using tunnels to attack inside Israel and possibly attempting or actually committing kidnappings, then Gaza should be pushed into the sea or Sinai with the Egyptians warned ahead of the assault so they could be stationed at their border to arrest all the terrorist and others undesirable refugees as they crossed their border as they will more likely prefer being arrested by Egypt than Israel. What can I say about the last comment about preferring Egyptian arrest, everybody is permitted one mistake. Finally, when they return from the Syrian war Hezballah will need to regain their street cred with the people of Lebanon and they will turn on Israel to get their support. Israel should let the Christian, Druze and Sunni Muslim who all are subjugated by Hezballah that this would be the time to clear the Becca Valley and place sufficient forces to arrest all of the remaining Hezballah forces at the Litani River and once and for all having destroyed Hezballah, Israel will be assuming the Litani River as their northern border. The immediate response from the world, the United Nations, the European Union, the United States, Russia, China, Vanuatu and who knows who else will be to denounce the Israeli aggression, disproportional force, and expansion of borders. The problem is that when attacked a country is permitted to retain the lands from which the attacks were manned and launched and establish a border which is defensible which usually means holding the high lands (Golan Heights), a river (Jordan and Litani Rivers), larger bodies of water (Dead Sea) and other strategic lands granting the ability to see attacking forces at a distance (areas beyond the Negev Desert into the Sinai Peninsula). These are the natural borders Israel should implement if attacked from across her borders and let this be known ahead of time as a deterrent. Those who will claim Israel will never hear the end of such overt moves, let us ask, and we are hearing the end of our defending ourselves from Hamas and a thousand rockets a day and from the PA with their all-out attack backed by instigations from government media and with government social media blitz and financial rewards yet Israel is attacked for killing homicidal maniacs demanding to be stopped and who when shot and injured lunge at victims until shot repeatedly and killed. We are being victimized by the world for defending ourselves within our current borders so why care what the world thinks as they already condemn us for breathing. We want secure borders on all fronts and we should take them as they become necessary. Nothing less than knowing attacking Israel will cost the attacking forces land, period. We tried carrots, now is the time for sticks.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Blog at WordPress.com.