Beyond the Cusp

December 26, 2013

January and the Countdown to the Next War on Israel

Come the New Year and we will find a full frontal assault on Israeli political leadership pushing them to accept the latest and greatest United States plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process. Thus far the discussions with the Israelis have mostly been centered around explaining the great benefits, form a Palestinian state and still pay attention to providing for Israel’s security to the IDF top brass and exchanging ideas trying to reach some mutual middle ground. All of the actions so far have been exercises performed simply to mollify the Israeli leadership softening them up for the coming offensive. The United States has reserved fifty rooms at a luxury hotel in Jerusalem plus three floors of a conference hotel just to house computers, maps, and other displays and visuals on which to display all the great and wonderful features of the latest and greatest final solution to the Israel problem concerning the risks that a Palestinian state might cause. It is my hope that these computer simulations and other technical equipment planned to be implemented to sell this version of the Saudi Plan to Israel will function as well as the initial rollout of the program for Obamacare. These rooms have been initially reserved for three weeks but it is doubtful their reservations could not be extended into the future probably to the very last day of the Obama Presidency if that is what it takes to force this plan on the Israelis.


There have been some leaks and what has become known is telling and very frightening. The biggest issue for the Israelis is their being able to monitor the Jordan Valley thus controlling what can be transported into the Palestinian state keeping them from importing heavy weapons, rockets, explosives and terrorists and their tools of the trade. The difference between the Israelis and the plan that Secretary of State Kerry is selling concerning the Jordan Valley is basic, Israel insists on being able to permanently station troops to monitor this border or at least until the Palestinians cease to pose a threat. The Kerry plan places Israelis initially on the border then after two to three years the Israeli contingent will be decreased and dual partnering with Israeli and third party, probably United States forces, will take over monitoring. This will continue with the Israeli forces being replaced by third party forces until the force is purely third party with no Israeli presence. The theory is that these troops will slowly, as conditions permit, turn the border over to Palestinian forces allowing the formation of the Palestinian state to be fully realized. The initial reaction from Palestinian spokespersons has basically warned that they would attack any non-Islamic forces placed on their holy lands whether they be Israelis or any third party. They guaranteed that no foreign forces would be tolerated after the agreement has been reached. Somehow the plan to implement the American plan only addresses forcing Israel to accept the terms of the agreement and very little attentions has been shown about convincing the Palestinians to accept the plan. This may become a problem at some point.


One might ask why there is no provisions to convince the Palestinians to accept the plan. There is a solidly good reason this is the case. Secretary Kerry learned from his earlier trip where he first met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and agreed to present some of the Israeli positions to Chairman Abbas to get the Palestinian reaction. After meeting with Netanyahu and the Israelis Secretary Kerry agreed to meet reporters and hold a short press conference. During the press conference Secretary Kerry claimed that good progress had been accomplished in his meetings with the Israelis and he expressed his assurances that after his meeting with Abbas that most of the difficulties would be behind them and an agreement might be within reach. Secretary Kerry then took the short drive to Ramallah and met with Chairman Abbas who immediately went off on Secretary Kerry rejecting every single aspect of the plan and then denounced the entire plan before the press after Secretary Kerry had returned to Israel. This left both Secretary Kerry and President Obama facing a problem, how could this be turned to make it appear that Israel had been the side causing the negotiations to fall short when Secretary Kerry had already stated that the Israelis had met him at least part way and it was evident after Chairman Abbas gave his interview to the media that it was he representing the Palestinians that had totally rejected everything. Not to fear as the Kerry-Obama team will not make this mistake again. They will now faithfully toe the Palestinian line and attempt to push every single element of the Palestinians down the Israelis throats. The mistake that will still be waiting for Secretary Kerry and company is that even should he manage to get the Israelis to agree to everything except the full right of return for the over five million refugees and descendants from the 1948 war to destroy the nascent state of Israel launched by multiple Arab nation’s armies, the Palestinians will still refuse to accept the deal as it will not fulfill their requirements, even if Israel agreed to allow a partial right of return of say two million refugees and descendants.


That leads to what would a plan have to include in order to have the Palestinians accept it. The first item is that whatever else the peace plan might contain, if it did not erase the Jewish nature of the state of Israel it would be unacceptable. This has been made evident and the Palestinians have become so confident that the world will back them to any degree that they have even began to state these truths in English as well as in Arabic. Over the past few months the negotiators, other high officials of the Palestinian Authority, officers from Fatah and others have come out and stated bluntly that there is nothing which will persuade them to accept Israel as the home for the Jews. They have stated that they will accept allowing the Jews to accept Dhimmi status and to live at the convenience of the Palestinian Muslims. They have even stated that they would guarantee not to allow any harm to befall the Jews as long as the Jews knew their place and did not offend them in any way. There was no explanation as to exactly what the Jews would need to do in order not to provoke the Palestinians’ wrath. The minimal conditions which the Palestinian leadership has defined will not allow for any settlement of the conflict ever, let alone in the near future. This may be the saving grace for Israel and her peoples as it is very possible that Prime Minister Netanyahu and much of the Israeli leadership, both political and from the military, will sellout and agree to conditions which would spell a deadly threat to the ability of Israel to continue to operate as a nation free of direct threats. Israeli leadership appears ready to allow the Palestinian state to exist right up to large sections of the Green Line, the 1948 Armistice Lines, which would allow for line of sight attacks with rockets and other weapons even to the heart of Tel Aviv. It is ironic that the saving grace for the nation of Israel is that the Palestinians are dead set on destroying the Jewishness of Israel through the negotiations, something that even the Obama-Kerry team would not try to sell to Israel. Then again, they just might but they could not expect to succeed. There has been one series of very troubling statements made a short while back where more than one Palestinian leadership where they intimated that Secretary of State Kerry had given Chairman Abbas and other leaders a signed letter guaranteeing that Secretary Kerry would force the Israelis to accept and agree to every last item on their pre-conditions list and necessary guarantees which they have listed knowing that they are impossible demands. That is the one guarantee, the Palestinians will always have one more demand no matter how many demands Israel may be willing to grant. Why is it so frightening having to rely on the greed and obstinacies of the Palestinians to save the Israeli people from their spineless government leadership? Irony is that had the Palestinians rational expectations and leadership they could have had their state almost any time over the past fifty years and would probably be living with a level of affluence unknown by the neighboring Arab states.


Beyond the Cusp


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