Beyond the Cusp

December 23, 2018

Steps to Real Israeli Deterrence

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:57 AM
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Establishing deterrence has been a topic of debate amongst the Israeli leadership. There is one main problem, and that is the fact that currently the Prime Minister is also the Defense Minister as well as holding two other Ministerial positions making him almost a majority all by himself. Israel is currently in a frightful position as it appears that Prime Minister/Defense Minister/almost the entire government in a person Bibi Netanyahu has been struck with a dreaded condition we refer to as Galutitis, which is defined as being frozen to inaction over an overbearing fear of what others will think or possibly react. In the case of Netanyahu, his fears appear to be over what the Europeans will think, say or do. He is so tuned into what the world including the always-oppositional United Nations and its numerous appendage organizations, that he freezes when the time comes to approve military action. The result has been that he orders the military to use roof knockers, to allow everyone in a location to be struck time to depart the building, that includes the terrorists and their leadership, so that when the building is struck, not a single hair on anyone’s head is even singed. So Hamas launches rockets which in the last barrage did kill one Palestinian Arab living in Israel illegally, karma, and did cause a degree of damage while the IDF struck a number of Hamas structures resulting in virtually no casualties. Hamas aims to murder as many civilians and had one shell recently land in a kindergarten a mere twenty minutes before it opened to tens of children, and Israel does everything possible to only strike empty buildings. This is not the means to establishing any deterrence.

 

So, what would it take to establish a serious deterrence which would allow for Israel to feel a prolonged period or possibly even permanent peace? That is a sticky proposition. When the main aim if those who are attacking you is to die in the process such that they gain immortality in their next life with seventy-two raven haired perpetual virgins and endless wine which does not ever make one ill but simply provides a pleasant sensation where there are streams, waterfalls and fields of grass in a pleasant atmosphere and every day is perfect; then threatening their lives does nothing as death is their ultimate goal after killing as many innocents as possible. This is often why terrorists refuse to surrender and start shooting at an entire platoon of IDF soldiers simply to get to the virgins and perfect lush green land with streams and waterfall. This fact that the terrorists often enter into their attacks hoping to end up dead and there have been a fair number who would continue attacking even after police or IDF forces came upon the scene often charging at the armed official personnel screaming “Allahu Akbar” with their weapon in the ready attempting to be shot and killed. Some, even after being shot and injured and caught being surrounded by IDF soldiers all of whom are armed only to have these injured terrorists jump to their feet and attack the soldiers repeatedly for as long as they are physically able in their attempt to be killed and sent to a better life. The problem Israel faces is how to deter people to whom death is a desired end. This is the dilemma facing Israeli leadership and is not going to be an easy one to find a solution as threats to the actual terrorists will be absolutely useless as there exists no threat which would actually deter their attacking Israelis, and often Israeli unarmed civilians.

 

Since the terrorists are seeking immortality in the next life which they are told they will be guaranteed such rewards should they die while attempting or actually murdering Israeli civilians, guaranteeing that any terrorist caught in the act will not be taken into custody but instead will be shot dead at the scene of their attack would probably encourage more rather than less terrorism. What should Israel threaten, that they will catch all terrorists and treat them with kid gloves and place them in a place where we will keep them well fed and medically treated such that they have a long life in this world? Obviously, Israel is going to have to think outside the box, so to speak, and find something which the terrorists will fear sufficiently such that they will be forced to think twice before committing any acts of terror. Israel attempted house demolition which the Palestinian Authority (PA) answered by building new homes right where the destroyed house used to sit. The PA has also promised to provide the terrorist, should they survive, or their family, should they succeed in reaching that life after with or without the promised virgins and perfect green and water-filled world, a salary based on the numbers of Israelis killed and other particular bonuses for certain other delineated options, which is greater than the average salary of PA employees, for the rest of their lives or as long as the PA continues to be so generously funded by Western nations, particularly European nations and the European Union. In Gaza, the economy is in such a state that unless you are in the business of smuggling items for Hamas and Islamic Jihad or other support of their terrorist war, that you are left living a life destitute simply because the governance is a terrorist group which diverts virtually all the provisions, materials provided for infrastructure and cash flow into their terrorist endeavors such as building tunnels within Gaza, infiltration tunnels into Israel which get destroyed, rocket production, mortar production and whatever is the most recent terror weapons which has established an upper class. The terrorist efforts which is the main goal of Hamas and Islamic Jihad takes virtually all of the economic production leaving nothing for a healthy working class in Gaza so the people have mostly lost hope and simply follow the government line that their poverty is caused by Israel and only by destroying Israel and murdering the Jews will their lives improve. To the north, Hezballah is funded and armed by Iran and attacks Israel when ordered to do so by Iran and for that there is no deterrence unless the fanatic leadership in Iran can be threatened, and even that is not necessarily guaranteed that it would work.

 

If at this point you are thinking that each of the three terror fronts poses different forms of threat, each with its own formula and that none of them could be deterred by any of the normal routes which have proven to be deterrents in the past, you are quite perceptive. There is only one thread which runs through all three threats, they are in specific regions and all their eggs are pretty much in one or two baskets for each group. Hang with us as we build this up and assemble the only means that Israel has to deter aggressions against her people and secure her borders. The first threat which should be addressed should be either the threat in Gaza from Hamas and Islamic Jihad or the threat in the Shomron where the PA governs. The first thing one need recognize is that both of these zones are ruled by terrorist groups despite what Britain’s Jeremy Corbyn says. The first fact which need be established is what were the intended borders for the Jewish State derived from the 1922 San Remo Conference and agreements reached between the British and the Zionist Congress to permit for the Arab state of Jordan east of the Jordan River and the Jewish State of Israel west of the Jordan River before the British gifted the Golan Heights to the French Mandate region giving it to Syria and denying it to Israel. The best way to establish this is to show the map below which shows exactly what we are describing. Any final determination which actually will provide Israel with defensible borders and fulfill the promises made between the two World Wars in a number of treaties, will serve to provide additional security for Israel. With this understanding of the reality under International Law and enforceable by the United Nations under Article 80 of their Charter where they assumed the responsibility for the establishment of the Mandate systems established after World War I by the League of Nations, can guide the final determinations as to what borders are required satisfying all the necessary requirements. All of this is easily proven and does not recognize any additional Arab state west of the Jordan River or in Gaza and under these established laws, while there must be no interference in the religious, economic and numerous other rights of the Arabs residing within the Jewish State, the rules of these treaties allows Israel to refuse them political rights. This means that while Israel must be as cordial and allow the Arabs and any others who are not Jewish to continue with their lives largely unaltered, Israel is not required to permit them to have the vote and could do as they have allowed the Arab communities to rule themselves in local areas but not have the vote in national elections, this is how the Arabs are in the annexed eastern Jerusalem, they can vote in Jerusalem elections but not in Israeli national elections. Now to discuss the deterrence which must be found if Israel and the surrounding Arabs can find some way of coexistence without either side attempting to murder the others.

 

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

Map of the lands promised to the Zionist Congress and inviolable and sacrosanct for all time by Great Britain and the League of Nations as an addendum to the Mandate System which makes this promise also enforceable by the United Nations and considered equal to a treaty through Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. This was also considered as an element incorporated to the San Remo Conference which is also applicable in modern times.

 

The initial step to forming a safe and secure Israel comes from responding to any assault upon the body of Israel such that it ends any threat from the region which is causing the distress. For argument sake, this paragraph we will be looking at Gaza and addressing the PA in the next paragraph. Eventually, even if Israel completely ignores all else and continues providing electricity and natural gas to Gaza despite their not paying for these provisions, Hamas or Islamic Jihad will be ordered by Iran to launch attacks on Israel. Upon the second, no later than the third, day of rockets raining down upon innocent Israelis and regardless of whether they are striking only in the Negev Desert or have the temerity to strike Tel Aviv, Haifa and/or Jerusalem, Israel should announce an ultimatum that if the launching of projectiles, even including the incendiary balloons and kites, does not completely halt by sundown, then the people of Gaza may not see the next sunrise. When one of these ultimatums is ignored, which actually will probably be the first time, then Israel should completely destroy every site used by the terrorists, destroy every rocket making machine shop, level the homes of every Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders’ homes, destroy the mall, the water park, the fancy restaurants and everything which those who live comfortably off of the terror war treasure and then the next morning make the final announcement. The final announcement will be simple, the population of Gaza has to decide what they want. If they wish to remain, then they will accept Israeli law and rule living in peace, then they will feel the benefit of real governance which is not based on terrorism and the destruction of Israel at the cost of the people and their futures. Those who wish to depart and begin their lives elsewhere, Israel will provide a small incentive to assist with their beginning anew. The amount could arguably be anything from twenty-five-hundred dollars to as much as twenty-thousand dollars, using dollars so that the currency would be accepted anywhere on the planet, and we promise not to chase after you. Finally, anyone who refuses both offers and plan on continuing the terror war, know that Israel will solve these threats in a biblical manner. For those who are unsure what that means, it means we will come and kill you, your family, your animals, your vehicles, your home, your business and those of your family and all those who assisted you and their families. That might provide an idea that Israel has decided the war from Gaza must end and are taking back the area as we were promised we could by the world when in 2005 we disengaged from Gaza to provide the Palestinian Arabs a chance to prove they could live in peace and instead they gave us terror wars and no peace. The entirety of the leadership of the various terror groups, should they survive the night, will be sent packing with a warning that should they return, they will be shot on sight.

 

In the Shomron where the PA believes that, they were promised that Israel could be forced back within the Green Line by the Oslo Accords. That is about as wrong headed as they could misinterpret what was stated. The region was divided into three regions, Area A, Area B, and Area C. Area A was recognized as belonging to the PA and where they would rule without Israeli assistance or interference unless they desired such. Area C was to be given for Israeli settlement and to become part of Israel. Area B was the region where cooperative rule was the case and was the region where borders were to be determined with the PA and Israel each being able to claim parts of that region. Even before anything further comes along, Israel needs to annex all of Area C leaving Areas A and B and even small regions of Area C such that these regions are interconnected making a smooth border between what is Israel and leave the remainder to the PA. This should be done immediately as it would provide a wake-up call for the leadership of the PA, also known as Mahmoud Abbas, that Israel was done with his games and the false negotiations which has been used to drive Israel from lands which are legally hers. The reality is that all of these areas belong to Israel under International Law unless Israel officially disengages from the land in permanence, something which Oslo Accords was not establishing. Should the PA through their various means of instigating a general uprising, usually incited with claims that the Jews are destroying the Dome of the Rock or desecrating the al-Aqsa Mosque just as Mahmoud Abbas did causing the stabbing Intifada using the video below, then Israel would be required to act. Such announcements are used by Mahmoud Abbas and the other leadership of the PA use to cause an uprising which they then claim is completely caused by Israel. Upon such instigation in the future, Israel need warn Mahmoud Abbas that Israel will no longer tolerate such instigations fomenting terrorist violence. Should he continue or allow the leadership to continue to foment terrorism, then Israel should simply remove all of those who are part and parcel of the PLO and other terrorist functions in their regions. Israel could then inform the leadership and security forces of the PA, should they persist in their calling for violence and the death of Israelis, they will no longer be welcomed within the borders of Israel which does include their regions. Then, should they ignore that last warning, the final warning is that they have until sunset to leave Israel including all the lands west of the Jordan River or they will be eliminated. That night, the IDF under guidance and direction of the Israeli intelligence, they should arrest all of the leadership of the PA, PLO, Fatah and the security forces simply eliminating all of those who resist. The next morning we would then place these leaders on an aircraft and take them to a prearranged foreign nation where they would be allowed to take refuge knowing that should they ever set foot within Israel ever again, they will be shot dead. Then the remainder of the people of the PA will be provided the same options as were described be given in Gaza. Israel should also offer the same incentive for anyone living in Israel who would rather live elsewhere.

 

 

Hezballah in Lebanon is a completely different situation as they are the military anti-Israel and anti-Zionist solution and continuous threat to Israel. Hezballah follows pretty much the same rules and follow the same usage as does the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) with the one basic difference being that the IRGC is used to perform attacks anywhere in the world such as the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina building bombing in Buenos Aires (see image below). The IRGC is also suspected of the bombing of the Israeli embassy in the same time period in Buenos Aires. As Hezballah is located in Lebanon, they are not in lands which were in any way promised Israel. Their attacks, as they are now a major part of the governance in Lebanon, are now also a state of war between the two nations. Additionally, the United Nations Security Council established and empowered UNIFIL to establish and enforce a demilitarized zone in southern Lebanon in order to end the threat from Hezballah and prevent their establishing bases and attack formations along the Israel border. A simple answer is that they absolutely failed and should be removed before they are used by Hezballah as human shields for their command and control bunkers which many are built adjacent to UNIFIL offices and depots. Past Hezballah usage of civilian housing from which to launch rockets, for ambush sites and storage of munitions, rockets and other equipment necessary for their attacks conveys their propensity which infers that they would use the UNIFIL forces as human shields. Since the UNIFIL presence is in no way any deterrence to Hezballah actions along the border and in the future could become human shields, they should be removed and declared a failure. This would be wise as a means of preserving their lives and cutting the cost of an otherwise useless effort.

 

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

Results of the July 18, 1994 AMIA Bombing in Buenos Aries

 

Hezballah is currently armed with one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and, using Iranian provided guidance packages, have started altering their larger rockets into guided missiles. Any provocation by Hezballah need be taken up initially with the government of Lebanon. They would need to be told that they are responsible for preventing attacks by Hezballah from their territory. Israel should then issue a declaration of war against Hezballah and Lebanon as a response to provocations coming from within Lebanon. The reason for declaring the war on both parties is due to the fact that they are inseparable and in order to fight Hezballah, it becomes necessary for Israel to attack much of Lebanon south of the Litany River, the Bekaa Valley as well a southern Beirut as all of these are regions used by Hezballah. Israel should also inform Hassan Nasrallah, the promoted leader of Hezballah, that he will be one of the first targets which Israel will strike. He probably believes that because he almost never comes above ground that Israel does not know where he is hiding, he should not be feeling so safe. When it comes to Hezballah, there would be no use using the same offers used for Gaza and the PA region as the members of Hezballah are in the pay of Iran and chose to exist solely for the sake of the destruction of Israel upon orders from Iran. There is no means of deterrence possible concerning Hezballah because they are an arm of the Iranian military world forces and they are dedicated to destroying Israel, a similar desire as their Quds Force which is dedicated to the capture of Jerusalem. With Hezballah, there are no incentives which would influence their actions as they are under orders as they come from Tehran and the Iranian government, specifically their Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. When the time comes that Iran turns Hezballah loose on Israel, the only choice Israel will need make is whether they desire expanding this coming war which is unavoidable, should they also take out as much of Iranian leadership as is readily attainable. As far as Hezballah is concerned, Israel should use all the force which is readily available for targeting Hezballah positions throughout Lebanon, Syria and anywhere else they may be located even to include Iraq. Once the entirety, or as close as humanly possible, of Hezballah forces, rockets, launchers, weapons stores, manufacturing and other infrastructure has been utterly destroyed, then Israel will need to face Iran and either extend the war to include Iran and their leadership, their military locations (especially the IRGC bases) and anything which does not cause the people to pay a price as they are not the enemies of Israel. Were we the ones who made these decisions, we would probably advise Iran that we have identified those responsible for the causing of the war with Hezballah and that perhaps they had made a potentially fatal mistake. Then we would select the most fanatical of those people and allow for them to have some terrible accidents. But any conflict with Hezballah need to be fought as a war between two nations, as Hezballah has already stated that they control the military of Lebanon. Israel could inform the Lebanese military that those forces which remained in stand down they would not be attacked but as soon as they appeared to be taking action, they would be targeted. Hezballah must not have any of its leadership and none of its military equipment surviving any conflict down to the last bullet. It needs to be a complete war with no quarter given from the very beginning as Hezballah has grown into an existential threat to Israel and as such, it cannot be permitted to have any abilities remaining from which to rebuild, period.

 

The final word on deterrence for Israel, that comes down to announcing a policy of no quarter for those who try to harm our people. The next step is to follow through completely on that promise. The price of targeting Israel must be made very expensive for any party which decides to target Israel. The tamping out flare-ups attempting to do the least amount of damage and completely avoid casualties of our enemies has proven completely ineffective. Continuing in this exact same scenario while our enemies continue to gain abilities to cause us more and more harm and casualties, then Israel will eventually be facing threats which will surpass anything we are capable of surviving. We have seen this with the continual increase in the threats from Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezballah to such a point that they each may not be capable of destroying Israel, but should all our enemies combine their forces, then the survival of Israel could be challenged. That is why Israel must take the stand that we will no longer suffer these malevolent threats with benign responses. We must meet force with far greater force and threats with total destruction such that none of these threats survives their attempts to cause us such threats. Never Again used to have meaning and it is time to return to such an approach to the threats out in the world as they are only going to grow with time, so it has come time that Israel return to the motto of Never Again.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 16, 2018

Wherever Israel Turns there are Threats

 

Though the media is largely ignoring many of these events, they are still plaguing Israel and those who love her. There are still rioting on the Gaza border pressed on continuously as the new normal with Hamas. The Hamas tunnel systems were thwarted so incendiary kites and balloons were the response. They claim they love the land more than the Jews ever will and are willing to burn it to ashes to prove it. Israel simply nurtures the land and grows crops and establishes discoveries which are helping humanity all over the world with the problems of fresh water, growing crops in arid lands, using water gained from treated sewage to grow crops, medical cures, software for office, security software, facial recognition systems which can detect criminals in crowds such as airports and other advances in virtually every endeavor all for the improvement of our world. But that is but a small area, the border with Hamas in Gaza, what about the rest of the region?

 

In the north on the border with Lebanon, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have uncovered another series of infiltration tunnels coming from within the region presumably patrolled and kept terrorist-free by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as per UNSC Resolution 1701, which brought the last Hezballah-Israel conflict to a close. There was to be a buffer region in southern Lebanon (see map below) where Hezballah was not to be permitted to place weapons, build bunkers, dig tunnels into Israel or place rockets. It is needless to point out, but that presumed effort has been a mitigated disaster. Hezballah has built up the region with bunkers, tunnels, launching positions concealed underground or in people’s homes, built ambush sites also often using people’s homes and increased their rocket inventory to approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets plus a percentage have been upgraded with precision guidance packages provided by Iran.

 

Map of UNIFIL Demilitarized Region

Map of UNIFIL Demilitarized Region

 

These modified rockets are now comparable to missiles; actually, they are missiles capable of striking within a few meters of any target in Israel. That is considered to be an existential threat by Israel and suitable warnings that this must not continue or else Israel may be forced to perform an extensive intervention. With their ranges and sizes, many of these rockets and missiles are capable of striking all of Israel (see table and map below). Unfortunately, such a threat from Israel is mostly, if not completely, ignored, as Israel is no longer considered a force to be feared. This is due largely to the crippling limitations placed on the IDF soldiers to such a point that they often delay before shooting, something which has proven excessively detrimental and cost Israel far too many lives. One example of such restraints was exceedingly evident during the rioting on the Gaza border where after allowing the troops to use their discretion, they imposed their being required to receive approval to engage targets unless their lives were under direct threat. The airstrikes by Israeli pilots also required approval even when given a specific and known Hamas positions as either an observer aircraft or drone was required to inspect the target and immediate vicinity before the mission could be concluded. Often, the pilots were instructed to return with their munitions still onboard because there was an innocent within the area considered to be potentially injurious. Hamas have often placed women and children on the rooftops of their most important positions and place their main command and control bunker underneath the main hospital in Gaza City.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

The recent past has reignited the terrorism from the Shomron by Arabs who are ruled by the Palestinian Authority (PA). One attack almost murdered a mother in her thirtieth week of her pregnancy. Her unborn child was removed by cesarean section and valiant efforts were made to save the child, but the infant died after four days, him never even having been held by his mother. This closes the loop where the only border where Israel can claim they have peace is the one it shares with the Mediterranean Sea, and please do not let the world know or they might just start to launch more Gaza Flotillas attempting to break the legal blockade of Hamas by Israel. That also brings us to the other problem which Israel faces, the United Nations and much of the world where anti-Semitism is being expressed as anti-Zionism and anti-Israelism. We had the perfect ignominy of the United Nations General Assembly which was brought to the fore by the recent vote refusing to condemn Hamas for firing rockets into Israel and the border violence which has gone on for over three-quarters of a year which we covered in this article. Within Europe, anti-Semitism has become rampant, increasing to the point that some of the political parties have refused to condemn the growing anti-Semitism within their ranks, even that of people of prominence of the party. But this trend is far from isolated to Europe.

 

In the United States, anti-Semitism has increase by near or over fifty-percent every year for the past half-decade. The recent elections placed a new member in the United States House of Representatives, from Michigan named Rashida Tlaib, who celebrated with a Palestinian flag and proclaimed her support of the Palestinians and her ill will for Israel. But it is not necessary to take our word for this, please check out what we state independently, we would be proud to have these things validated. One thing which one would need to find is my friends from long ago to validate that I had been warning my fellow Jews outside of Washington DC that anti-Semitism was rising and that a future would come probably in our lifetime that Jews would face extremely difficult situations in the United States and that at a turning point the bulk of one of the political parties would turn against the Jewish People. I also told them that I was going to retire in Israel and they did not believe that either. What can one say, such doubters.

 

There has been talk within Israel about reestablishing the Israeli deterrence so that the terrorists would refuse to continue their animosity and then we can all coexist in a period of peace. There has been no debate about exactly what form such an action would require in order to reestablish an Israeli deterrence. There have been hints such as the near immediate house demolition of every terrorist’s home regardless of other family (which would never get past the Supreme Court), immediate shutdown of any area from where a terror attack originated and the only sensible suggestion of reestablishing checkpoints throughout the Shomron. Despite the idea of reestablishing checkpoints, especially random checkpoints guided by intelligence, being a great idea to make the Shomron a safer place, Israel cannot place checkpoints within Gaza or Lebanon currently without first taking these regions through military action. Were Israel to take action to destroy the infrastructure built-up in southern Lebanon to deter Hezballah would simply return Israel into occupying southern Lebanon and all Hezballah would do is set-up new infrastructure just north of any IDF held positions. This would simply move the threat further from the Israeli public but would also place IDF soldiers at risk holding ground where the people are largely hostile. This is a ‘tried that, did not work,’ situation.

 

Then there is what to do about Hamas. This is where something can be done which would change the dynamics. Any action to change the map concerning Hamas, Islamic Jihad and all of their supporting terror infrastructure would first require being prepared to defend such actions. This would start with the considerations and guarantees provided to the Israeli government as part of the deal to engage in the grand experiment which became the Gaza Disengagement. First thing is that this was a grand idea cooked up by the United States State Department and proposed to President George H. W. Bush by Secretary Condoleezza Rice. The intent was to provide a region completely free of any and all Israeli presence in which the PA could demonstrate their ability to operate a civilized society with jobs, government services, power generation, economic development and a normative society. President Bush promised that the United States would provide cover in the United Nations should it become necessary for Israel to retake Gaza because it became a terrorist threat. By the end of 2007, Hamas had taken control over Gaza in a bloody coup and cemented their rule by discarding any PA officials they did not control off rooftops of many of the tallest buildings. From that point forward, Gaza has been a terrorist base exactly as the rightwing leadership of the Nationalist, Zionist and Religious parties within Israel had warned. The agreement Israel made was that should Gaza turn into the terrorist base it has become, Israel would be entitled to retake control of Gaza, clear out the terrorists and their supporters, and resume Israeli rule. Does anybody honestly believe that the world would not act as if it were on fire should Israel actually retake Gaza? Of course the world would go berserk, the United Nations would be holding sessions of the General Assembly, the Security Council, the Human Rights Council, UNESCO, UNICEF and the rest of the usual suspects. The European Union would be writing denunciations faster than their stenographers could write. Almost every other organization and most governments would all be lining up to take their shots at Israel for their temerity to act on a guarantee made them back in 2005 which the world was made aware of at the time. All of this is not even beginning to understand the reaction of the Arab and Muslim worlds. One would believe that the end of the planet was at stake.

 

Here is the catch when discussing Israel retaking Gaza and exactly what Israel takeover of Gaza would entail and require. First, the Israeli leadership would need to wear sound suppressing headphones for an extended period of time in order to have any peace. Second, Israel would need to have an indisputable reason such as almost five-hundred rockets launched into Israel out of Gaza in a twenty-four hour period. Since Israel just suffered exactly such an attack, allow us to divert and review. Israel was warned by the United Nations that this barrage was entirely just a reaction to the infiltration of an intelligence gathering team which was caught and engaged by Hamas forces resulting in one dead Israeli officer, one injured Israeli soldier and six dead Hamas fighters. Israel would just need to suffer this outburst as Israel deserved whatever Hamas desired to throw at her. The European Union seconded this feeling and probably threatened some punitive reaction were Israel to react with any change of the situation. Israel was permitted to react by launching rockets at Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets providing they were empty. There would be no tolerating anyone further in Gaza being killed in these exchange of fire, but if Israelis died, well, that would be acceptable. The United Nations in conjunction with Egypt, and rumored Turkey, arranged for Hamas to cease firing the rockets and simply continue the rioting along the Gaza border which Israel would need to continue to pretend that farming and other activities within a number of miles of the border were to never to survive planting or normative operating conditions as the launching of explosive and incendiary objects into Israeli territories surrounding Gaza. This would also extend to forests and wildlife reserves within these regions. What other nation in this world would tolerate such a situation? Not even the United States would tolerate this even if it were restricted to these devices being launched solely from the Baja Peninsula.

 

The reality is that Israel retaking control of Gaza might actually be the least invasive action which would provide some degree of deterrence. The problem is that Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas are actually under the direction of Iran. Should Iran decide that it desired for Israel to suffer some degree of difficulty, they could simply tell Hamas, Islamic Jihad and/or Hezballah to attack Israel to whatever degree desired. Iran has attempted to also engage and bring the PA and its terrorist groups including the PLO, al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades and whatever others which exist in an Iranian attempt to completely encircle Israel with terrorist allies. Iran already has IRGC troops stationed in Syria as well as some in Lebanon which have launched rockets and anti-tank missiles at the IDF forces stationed on the Golan Heights, which should tell one about the degree of deterrence Israel currently projects. The ability to project deterrence by Israel would require some drastic action which would leave no doubt that things have changed in a determinable manner witnessing that Israel was not going to continue to suffer terror attacks without responding with the liberal application of military force altering the ability for such activities being able to continue. Israel would need to make it apparent that any terrorist attack would engender a response so severe that any further terrorist activities would require rebuilding the terror infrastructure from scratch. There are two regions which would come to mind first and foremost, the Shomron and Gaza. This would mean the removal of terrorist governments of either the PA or Hamas, depending on which region provided sufficient threat demanding such an intense reaction. Should the terror attacks continue as almost daily attacks in the Shomron, that could cause the Israeli leadership to decide to extend Israeli rule to all of the Shomron and remove the PA leadership and security forces sending them to whatever nations will accept them, as long as it is as far as possible from Israel. Another barrage of five-hundred rockets in a day from Gaza would be another stimulus for Israel to retake Gaza.

 

The world does not need get themselves into a lather, the current Israeli government would not be taking such steps in the near future. It is even doubtful that the Israeli government which will be making the next coalition would take such steps, as that government will either be very similar to the current government or far more left-leaning. Short of a general war being initiated by Arab nations, Iran or a general coordinated terror assault, Israel is unlikely to take any drastic actions which would result in a change in the separate regions under the different terrorist rule, the PA in the Shomron, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and Hezballah with the IRGC out of Lebanon along with possibly Syria. The chance that the Arab and Muslim worlds will decide that Israel is permitted to live in peace is improbable without a very serious change in their attitude. There are only two reasons such a decision would be reached; a Renaissance in Islam where the Mecca Quran takes precedence over the Medina Quran which drives Islam in the modern day or Israel uses such an application of military force serving as a deterrence with lasting effects. When or exactly what takes place to cause either of these reactions we will have to leave up to our readers to dream-up. The same goes for when such a wondrous event or set of events will occur. Anyone who has thought that this cannot happen too soon, we feel your thought path and join your enthusiasm.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 14, 2012

The Real Consequences of the Korean Missile Launch

There is much about the Korean reportedly successful launch of a three stage ballistic rocket which placed a satellite into orbit that much of the news reporting has been omitting. There has also been a slight misdirection of faint praise lauded on the North Korean rocket scientists for overcoming their previous problems which had caused numerous previous failed launches. I can assure you that as supposedly talented and innovative the North Korean scientists may be, they had another group of rocket scientists whose experience and knowledge they tapped in overcoming their previous shortcomings, the Iranian rocket scientists. What has been not actually a guarded secret, but has been only minimally mentioned, the North Koreans and the Iranians entered an agreement a number of years ago as a response to both countries having similar aims and under similar world sanctions. Since then they have shared jointly all research into building rocketry with an aim at developing a useable ICBM and the nuclear device to place on top of it. Under this agreement each country’s scientists work on a particular problem and then share their results so that both teams can move forward. This has allowed for an accelerated pace of advancing their research and knowledge as this method removes redundancies and allows virtually all research to be accomplished by one team but benefit both programs. From what we have been able to discern the Iranian area of specialty has been the development of rocketry while the North Koreans have spearheaded the nuclear weaponry side of the equation. This may have been partially the reason behind the Parchin Military Base being decommissioned and destroyed and cleansed as the North Koreans had already finished research and designing the necessary explosive charges necessary in a high yield nuclear device.

So, when evaluating the ramifications of the North Korean missile test and its relative success, one has to figure that this was actually a dual success with Iran as a mutual winner besides the North Koreans. The North Koreans gaining the ability to launch a three stage rocket and place a satellite into orbit now an ability which we need to grant to the Iranians. The only solace we can take from this accomplishment is that the satellite the North Koreans placed into orbit was apparently tumbling and as such completely useless and would also not allow for a stable placement of a warhead. Mind you, taking much solace from this fact may prove to be a short lived comfort as this little difficulty will probably not take very long to correct and then the North Koreans and their allies, the Iranians, will have pretty much a fully functioning ICBM. We already know that both countries have fully functioning CBMs with sufficient range to make many countries throughout Asia, the Middle East, North Africa and much of Europe nervous and easily within range of these missiles. The Iranian Shahab series of missiles appear to me mostly exact copies of the North Korean Nodong missiles. So, we can now assess that both Iran and North Korea have the basic plans for ballistic missiles and at least a rudimentary nuclear weapon as well as very possibly a nuclear triggered EMP device. That sure is a comforting set of thoughts for the holidays, well, not exactly.

The most troubling fact about this entire North Korean launch is that the sanctions in place on North Korea, sanctions considered to be even more all-encompassing and strict than those on Iran, has not deterred the North Koreans from moving ahead with their nuclear and rocket programs. With this knowledge, exactly how much faith can anybody be expected to place on President Obama’s statements that we need to give sanctions a chance to work on Iran. Really now, wait for the lesser sanctions on Iran to cripple Iran while more stringent sanctions have had little effect in slowing North Korea from their nuclear or their missile development. The people in Iran are suffering under the sanctions despite efforts by Turkey, India, China and other allies and friends who get exemptions or find other ways around the sanctions and are providing some amount of relief from the sanctions. This has not allowed Iran to completely avoid the restrictions and difficulties sanctions are supposed to apply but these transactions have allowed at least some funds and relief. The most important and critical piece of information from this mostly successful launch by the North Koreans is the nearly total uselessness of sanctions against a dedicated, military, faux-electoral dictatorship at preventing military and WMD development. This is total proof that Israel has been correct all along stating that sanctions will not be sufficient in preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons capabilities. Whatever else you take from these pieces of information, the one most important is that United States President Obama is completely in the tank depending on sanctions and will not resort to a military option unless there is no other choice and the American people actually call for such actions universally. President Obama does not realize the full ramifications of the Iranians going nuclear and never will. He has a permanent blind spot that forces him to disregard and oppose anything that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu mentions. Now we just have to figure out how the world can survive and go ahead once Iran has nuclear weapons and can apply nuclear terrorism using Hezballah, Hamas, the IRGC and all the rest of their terror proxies. Such a world will not be a good place, not a good place at all. Sometimes one really wishes they could find a Hobbit hole and settle down to some real peace and comfort.

Beyond the Cusp

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