Beyond the Cusp

November 24, 2015

Coming Death of Europe and the European Union

 

 

Finally British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlin’s Peace for Our Time which started World War II can be put to rest just as it put the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg which started World War I to rest. That might indicate to many that German Chancellor Angela Markell’s announcement that Germany would accept 800,000 Syrian refugees which was the dropping of the European Union flag starting the final invasion of Europe as we know her, the bitter and painful death of Europe and the European Union.

 

 

Top Left) Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg which started World War I. Top Right) British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain Announcing, “Peace for Our Time” Leading to World War II. Bottom Left) Angela Merkel Posing for Selfie with Syrian Refugee. Bottom Right) The European Union Flag Starting the Race of Refugees Overrunning Europe Coming not to Settle but to Conquer.

Top Left) Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg which started World War I.
Top Right) British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain Announcing, “Peace for Our Time” Leading to World War II.
Bottom Left) Angela Merkel Posing for Selfie with Syrian Refugee.
Bottom Right) The European Union Flag Starting the Race of Refugees Overrunning Europe Coming not to Settle but to Conquer.

 

 

If those flooding into Europe were actually families of all ages with many being three, four or even five generations traveling seeking a sane and orderly place to rebuild their lives, then it would be acceptable. But these are not largely families nor are they all Syrians; these are refugees from the length and breadth of the troubled Middle East from Pakistan and Afghanistan to Yemen to Libya to Somalia. The problem is the non-Syrian members of the refugee hordes and those both planted and others simply the product of a poor education system who are easily influenced by those planted within these groups who will spread influence and others who are easily influenced by these placed within the systems.

 

The fuel which will sustain the fires, both literal and figurative, has been in place and willing to follow any leader who promises a better future. That better future which will excite the youths from the existing Islamic populations whose parents fled the exact same system as what will be promised as the solution to their problems, a system where these underprivileged youths who have received an inexcusably poor education or were raised in Islamic Madrasas which have been subverted simply teaching the promises of jihad and the redistributional systems where they will be given their shares of a new society which they will bring into existence through violence and revolution. The greatest share of the wealth they redistribute will necessarily end up in the pockets of the instigators and the real power gained will also be exclusively shared by the leaders of this grand jihad, this grand revolution which is fed by class and racial rhetoric which will stoke the fires of the inequality of wealth distribution and their inherent right to these riches after the conquest of Europe.

 

The real problem also lied in the freedom to travel anywhere within the European Union once one establishes residency in any one of the European Union nations. This will make the spread of the instigators and facilitators crossing from one country to the next always preaching the same story of how the riches of those who now rule have stolen from them and their right once the new order of the Sharia and Islamic rule has been established. Any Muslim who tries to prevent their youths from making the same mistakes which were behind the failures of the Arab Spring or committing themselves to instituting the exact same governments which have spread the misery equally to those being enslaved by a government that is all about submission; will be imprisoned, if they are fortunate, or executed. This includes but is not limited to submission to Allah, submission to Islam, submission to the Sharia, submission to the Iman and submission to the government which will claim be to be an extension of Allah. The Imans, the Sharia and the hierarchical system of a dictatorial theocracy control the real wealth and power. It will be vested in the few at the top and just sufficiently shared with the highest tier in the political and religious scale of a strictly ordered society and the Imans who tell great stories of the shahids who liberated the land for Allah. The state of affairs for the masses will be little different after the initial spoils are redistributed much as was true immediately after the French Revolution which soon led to a secondary revolution between the two then opposing solutions and the strongest but not necessarily the best side won and the French have been attempting to perfect their socialist order and their republic all the while missing the systemic problems within socialism, but fear not as the winds of change are about to blow and blow with the very fires of religious fervor and unprecedented zeal not seen since the Inquisition and sharing much of the same horrors.

 

The winds of Islamic Caliphate are coming to Europe and the only antidote has been forsaken to such a point as there is little if any hope that Europe will find the resolute will and G0d fearing faith to make the sacrifices necessary to combat the evil that is coming. The disease which fathered this change has been a long time building and its most apparent problem has been the cause of the necessity to bring in foreign sources of labor which will now extinguish all that Europe has built and either tear the signs of Western based systems and their most obvious symbols out by the roots or convert these monolithic cathedrals into Grand Mosques and take the statues and obelisks which festoon Old Europe out by their roots. The architecture will have to be altered to please the new masters and some obvious pillars to another time will need be torn asunder. The prime example would be Titus’s Arch with its symbols of Roman General Titus’ spoils from the defeat of Jerusalem and the putting down of the Jewish (Israelite) revolt and taking the spoils of war by taking the sacramental treasures from and sacking of the Second Temple back to Rome a sign of his triumph (see images below).

 

 

Islam in its current Jihadi form refuses to permit the colossal works such as Titus’s Arch on the Via Sacra in the Forum Romanum, Rome, Italy (above) or the Arc de Triumph stands in the center of the Place Charles de Gaulle (originally named Place de l'Étoile), at the western end of the Champs-Élysées, Paris, France (below) as such works either predate Islam, Titus’s Arc, or have no reference or meaning in Islam, Arc de Triumph, thus are simply distractions from Muhammad and Allah and as such are deserving of destruction. These also represent great victories or are standards or national monuments and as such must be brought low before they inspire some future generation to reassert their national pride. Without such reminders of a past independent from Islam it is far easier to keep the people in a state of submission.

 

 

Islam in its current Jihadi form refuses to permit the colossal works such as Titus’s Arch on the Via Sacra in the Forum Romanum, Rome, Italy (above) or the Arc de Triumph stands in the center of the Place Charles de Gaulle (originally named Place de l’Étoile), at the western end of the Champs-Élysées, Paris, France (below) as such works either predate Islam, Titus’s Arc, or have no reference or meaning in Islam, Arc de Triumph, thus are simply distractions from Muhammad and Allah and as such are deserving of destruction. These also represent great victories or are standards or national monuments and as such must be brought low before they inspire some future generation to reassert their national pride. Without such reminders of a past independent from Islam it is far easier to keep the people in a state of submission. Further, a people in submission without any signs, monuments, great works of art, literature, movies, music, or anything else not honoring Islam and declaring the superiority and completeness of Islam are inconsequential. A story, apparently first appearing in the thirteenth century (mentioned first by Abd al Latif, who died in 1231, and later by Gregory Bar Hebraeus, who died in 1286), says that the Arabs, under Caliph Umar, destroyed the Alexandria Library shortly after the conquest of Egypt in 639 AD. The story rumored that Caliph Umar stated, “This library, if the books it contains agreed with the Koran, then they are superfluous, and if they disagree, then they are heretical. In either event, they are worthless and should be obliterated.” The books of the Library were put to the torch being used to heat the palace baths. Such was the reasoning which led to the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan in Afghanistan by the Taliban claiming they were the objects of idolatry and thus an abomination which must be destroyed. Similar claims have been documented for the actions of the Islamic State when they came upon items which were not of Islamic origins, especially if they were from religions which predated Islam.

 

 

The story rumored that Caliph Umar stated, “This library, if the books it contains agreed with the Koran, then they are superfluous, and if they disagree, then they are heretical. In either event, they are worthless and should be obliterated.” The books of the Library were put to the torch being used to heat the palace baths. Such was the reasoning which led to the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan in Afghanistan by the Taliban claiming they were the objects of idolatry and thus an abomination which must be destroyed. Similar claims have been documented for the actions of the Islamic State when they came upon items which were not of Islamic origins, especially if they were from religions which predated Islam.

 

 

We covered the destruction of the Buddhas of Bamiyan in our article titled Israeli Choice Between Terminal Terror or Settling Our Lands which were one of a number of such desecrations committed in the recent past and if Islamic State, the Taliban, and al-Qaeda get their way, the destruction has just begun. The items which would stand a high likelihood of being destroyed upon Islamic, especially the ardently zealous, passionately obsessive and compulsively dedicated with a fanatical devotion to Islam and solely Islam, possession of Western Europe would include irreplaceable artwork originals including the entirety of the Louvre in Paris, France. So many victory and other celebratory arches and obelisks, untold statues, historic sites, religious monoliths such as Stonehenge and countless libraries, film collections and archives, art museums and so much more as to be unthinkable. Further, many churches would be transformed into Mosques or otherwise destroyed, the main cathedrals would have their ornate artwork and mosaics plastered over as was done to the Hagia Sophia, the complete destruction of the Sistine Chapel as that has solid irreplaceable artwork, much done by the greatest painters of the day such as Michael Angelo as well as the stores in the Vatican vaults, their artwork and so much more (especially if the rumors are true that the original vessels, sacrificial items, the candelabra and other artifacts taken from the Second Temple by Titus referred to above and came into the hands of the Catholic Church early in the formation of the church and have been kept hidden and official denials issued when approached on the subject. But there will be other events which will change the entire scenario long before it gets to the horrific stages expected to arrive sooner rather than later.

 

The main problem has been the split between Old Europe (Western Europe) and the former Warsaw Pact Nations (Eastern Europe) with the most forceful stances taken have been Poland and Hungary who have refused to permit any refugees from remaining within their borders. The problem will come to a head once the refugees are issued European Union National identity cards or Blue Cards to be able to work throughout the European Union. Once the refugees gain the ability to travel, work, reside and cross into any European Union country, those nations who have refused to allow them entry except to pass through on to Germany, France, Scandinavia or anywhere other than Poland, Hungary and the other Eastern European nations and European Union members for now will soon be leaving the European Union either by choice or dictate. We suspect that once this comes to a head that the United Kingdom, which is already about to have a referendum on whether to remain in the European Union, and the majority of eastern bloc European Union member nations will all flee from their membership or attempt to remain members and also be permitted to define who may or may not cross their borders for as long as the refugee situation persists. If the European Union decides to be stubborn and refuse the eastern bloc nations, then there is a good chance that we are witnessing the immediate death of the European Union. If exceptions are granted for the former Warsaw Pact nations, then the days of the European Union are numbered. The European Union cannot long survive once it has granted that as long as member nations insist, then there can be different rules for some and the binding rules for the others you have an untenable situation where all European Union nations are equal, just some are more equal than others. That never has worked very well.

 

This situation was partially brought on by shifting population numbers where replacement levels were not met for a number of decades now. Germany having one of the worst within all of the European Union member nations may have been spurred by the vital need for younger workers as their pension bill increases and the number of workers kept declining, not a situation with which any nation can long survive. The same problem but nowhere near as severe has struck the United States thus one of the reasons there is no great hurry to close the southern border. The situation in the United States is not comparable to that of the European Union as in the United States the situation is being addressed by ignoring the influx of illegals across the Rio Grande River. The United States is blessed in that their illegal immigrants are largely Hispanic Christians with a large number either Catholic or after reaching the shores of the United States discovering and becoming Evangelical Christians. That is a far smoother transition than what Europe is facing. Further, the immigrants to the United States are coming with the intent of becoming Americans and assimilating with the exception of their intentions to remain religious or at least more religious than the average American, sad but true.

 

The Europeans are facing an entirely different problem. The refugees and the illegal immigrants which have been flooding Europe from the south by crossing the Mediterranean Sea, have an entirely separate and different religious, social, and political background which is completely in every way incompatible with European history, European religious freedom, even freedom from religion for the majority, work skill levels, educational levels, morals, social ethics, and just about everything right down to food choices. Their inclusion will completely alter what it means to be European. These illegal refugees from across the Mediterranean Sea are far more likely to adopt at least some of the European ethos while those coming from the east out of the Middle and Central East from as diverse a set of nations as imaginable will be mixed with most being honest refugees and amongst them hidden in plain sight will be entire terror squads. On top of the Christian Syrian refugees and some Iraqi Christians who compose the smallest of the smallest percentages, there are influxes of Islamic, largely Sunni which may perhaps be the slightest of breaks, with refugees arriving other than Syrian there are also Iraqi, Afghans, Pakistani, Yemenis, Iranian Arabs, Saudis and even some Egyptians and Sudanese. This is a challenging mix and the fact that many of the refugees have little or no skills and at best a rudimentary education level, is a complete change from what the European Union nation are accustomed. This is a completely separate and alien set of backgrounds which will also present problems in finding them employment. This is a problem as the last thing the European nations and the European Union do not need is a workforce who require rudimentary educations and training on even what a time-clock is and the stress in European society will quickly hit the breaking point and soon thereafter the boiling point.

 

We may be about to witness the splintering of the European Union. The first ones to bow out will be the eastern and former soviet Warsaw Block nations who might return to Russian orbit or may strike out on their own. Should the Eastern Europeans decide to make their own version of the European Union then Israel should use her friendship with Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States and any others to receive preferable trade relations and potentially membership in any group they might form but Israel should be careful that these nation are not taking their time to simply gain a better bargain in reentering the Russian orbit. Some of the Eastern European Nations favor Israel, even more so than many of the Western European nations who are behind the BDS in Europe and have taken the Western European nations and have been instrumental in financing NGOs which oppose Israel and support the destruction of Israel and replacing it with yet another failed Arab kleptocracy. The strangest thing was the admission by Mahmoud Abbas that he had refused to accept or even make a counter proposal, just as did Yasser Arafat before him, too he rejected an offer from Israel’s Ehud Olmert which included placing Jerusalem’s Old City under international control and granting his 99.5% of the lands he demands and a tunnel between Judea and Gaza for Arab use only. Whatever the reason he gave, it was most definitively a bald faced lie! Abbas was offered lands from the triangle to offset for the settlement area Israel was retaining. Still the Arab capital would have been in East Jerusalem. Abbas was basically admitting that he could not be made happy with a loaf of bread under each arm and a bag full of marmalade, butter and some India Black Tea on the pot waiting. There is no hope short of marching the population of Israel westward into the Mediterranean and then Abbas would continue to take millions and then complain to the world that he needed more to be held responsible and if they did not fill the coffers. The world will eventually tire of that petulant child and his temper tantrums and let him scream and pound the floor kicking and screaming until he passes out. We can turn on the televisions if need be, but this they would not cover, but no matter, most Israelis we have had enough with the suited terrorist and his lies and false claims, his projection and finally, his damage to the Arab people whom he supposedly serves. We guess that is what you get when you deal with charlatans who are only in the game for the terror and pain they can inflict and the dollars and Euros they are able to steal, all else be damned.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 10, 2015

Our Economic World is Shakier Than We’ve Been Told

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The mainstream media, especially the European Media, are all the news all the time covering the Greek economic meltdown. Some of the more honest media has also included the crises that could be soon to topple as if dominoes all in a row of which Greece is but the first domino to be tripped to fall and they have shown how Spain and Portugal would be precariously hanging and soon toppled partly as a result of Greece’s defaulting though it might be likely they would have fallen eventually all on their own. These would trigger a crisis in Ireland and Italy as to which would be the fourth victim and which would follow as the fifth victim signaling the end of the most endangered Eurozone nations too close to default to be comforting. The real horrific effect of these five weaker economies finally tripping the default cable and snagging the economic webbing, which has held the European Union and the Euro together since 1999, doing irreparable damage to the delicate webbing, more fragile than the most slightly laced spider’s web, tearing enormous holes in its intricate weaves slashing at the most vital threads and upsetting the ever so precarious balance that underlies its supporting structures threatening to unbalance and collapse even the previously though stable economies of France, Poland and many of the other east European economies possibly pushing them right to the cliff-face and potentially tipping them beyond the cusp and into default thus lacerating the last remnants of the Eurozone and possibly taking with them Germany and the ECB (European Central Bank) causing unimaginable damage to the financial structure of Europe and beyond, the ripple effect causing a second deep recession well more serious and taking longer to tank-out and hit bottom and then begin a long sluggish scent clawing for every single Red Cent and Dollar and Euro after having taken its toll on Asia and beyond. But the Euro, Greece, and the rest of the European Union and the Eurozone is but one whirlpool looking to sink every last economic boat.

 

The Euro is what we have been led to believe is the only threat. Where previously economic ships only had to worry about rising and falling tides, now they are adrift and facing not just one whirlpool representing the Euro dying, but now there is a second even more massive whirlpool coming from deep within Asia. China has hit the road’s end and is attempting to push its enormous mountain of debt using a garden trowel while piling on fresh debt using Caterpillar 990K series front end loader shoveling an additional $19.3 billion in an effort to end their three week slide totaling $3.2 trillion downturn in the past three weeks alone. These losses were the result of a Chinese Stock Market where as many as two-thirds of the stocks were frozen in a further attempt to stem the torrents of dollars flowing from their stock market and their economy like the icy waters which flooded the lower decks of the Titanic as she slowly but inexorably fell beneath the waves, something somewhat prophetic for the Chinese markets and economy. There is actually a comparison between the situation in Greece and the downturn in China as one must remember that Greece is as socialist as a nation can be without being either fascist or Communist and Greece has retained their spirit of a democratic Parliamentary system despite it all but China has taken socialism that one final step to communism, the addition of mostly state owned corporations and central planning of the economic engines and manufacturing. Chinese leaders had been attempting to liberalize their economic sectors, though not all of them, selling a number of previously State run businesses and even permitted competition between companies in the same market hoping this would charge their economy further and it had been working but even free-market economic liberalization was unable to stave off this meltdown. The problem obviously is what will this mean for the liberalization of the Chinese economy as the leadership are still Communists who serve the Party and depend on the Party, may decide that much of their financial woes are the result of these new policies and curtail or even reverse some or all of the liberalized companies, markets and take a giant leap backwards to increased government control over every iota of the economy and the manufacturing and sales etc.

 

United States Treasury Secretary Jack Lew commented Wednesday on the current crisis in China stating at the Brookings Institution, that the economies of the United States and China are “still pretty much separated.” In further testimony Secretary Lew queried, “I think the concern … it is a real one … is what does it mean about long term growth in China?” Further in his speech he pointed to the main potential impacts which could emerge as a result to the Chinese Stock Market bleeding financially leaving the leadership seeing ‘Red’ in more ways than one. The leading question is to figure out as soon as possible what the reaction of the leaders of the Communist Party is and whether they may decide that the problem dictates such as appointing new leadership, freezing prices, injecting even more dollars into the markets through the banks and state owned businesses or closing the banks and Stock Market for a week or two cool down and reset to normalcy again; the choices and potential marrying of any two or three makes predictions near to impossible. The one thing which can be computed and predicted as long as the numbers being released and any steps taken are done so in plain view then the impact of the Stock Market freefall on the Chinese economy’s core condition and whether it appears that it will have much elasticity and dynamics when the end is finally reached and the rollercoaster slides on in to the station signaling the end of the ride, and what a ride it was with vigorous growth only to drop who knows how large a percentage of that growth in this correction, and what a correction. Secretary Lew’s closing thoughts are worthy of being repeated as he emphasized, “The question isn’t their commitment to the goal; the question is the pace at which they implemented it, and do they do it fast enough for it to be effective. I hope this is not something that slows down the pace of reform. If the reaction is to put the brakes on reforms, that will slow that process.”

 

With China making a long overdue correction which will be far more severe than it should or could have been if the leadership was not so intent on what numbers they released to the world and on making their predicted economic increase and meet all targets set within the government as to fail was unthinkable and would have been a terrible loss of face thus undermining faith in the economy. This has caused the Chinese to follow the example first used by President George W. Bush and turbocharged by President Barack Hussein Obama which was in the old school simply called a ‘stimulus package’ but is now known by a more enigmatic phrase of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ either of which hides the actual result and method being implemented as who would stand for the government announcing they were devaluing the money supply and taxing every single American by a minimum percentage directly proportional to the percentage increase the total added funding was doled out in stacks of hundred dollar bills, literally thousands of such stacks in the United States and unknown amounts though what is known is the Chinese leadership pumped close to twice the percentage of GDP as did the United States. Just as the United States took their hit starting back in late 2008 and continuing through 2011 and briefly relieved with another round of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ this was like the third pitcher of beer at a table trying to drink their way sober. The economic burst from that mid and late 2011 ‘Quantitative Easing’ gave the economy a burst of hope which appeared to continue due to lowered interest rates and the paring down and mostly neutering of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act gave the economy the needed push for President Obama’s reelection as he could run his campaign claiming to have turned the economy around and that great times lie ahead. Well, as far as that goes I’ll point to Greece and China and point out that the United States has followed similar patterns of fueling the economy and especially the Stock Market with borrowed monies and when loans were unavailable the Federal Reserve would electronically buy Treasury Bonds with funds they imagined into existence as a few strokes on a Federal Reserve keyboard and one produces and completed sale with funny money in that the receipt for the Treasury Bonds was used to balance the books as it represented the electronically derived cash used. This is a very convenient way to purchase items this way when you are the government or a very clever fraudster as just try using the sales slip from one register, say men’s clothing from a department store as cash at the Jewelry Counter and see how far that takes you. The catch, and there is always a catch, to ‘Quantitative Easing’ is that eventually you either have to pay back the money that was invented which can only be done some combination of these three methods, first is retire actual money from circulation which can also be done electronically by retiring any electronic payment made on credit cards, second is to remove the funds through higher taxes taking the money directly from the supply, and lastly one could raise the interest rates and siphon off a percentage of each loan to pay the Piper so to speak. The problem is that each of these methods actually hurt the consumer the most; it is the public that pays the price for the economic and financial misdeeds and ill-advised policies.

 

There are but a few redeeming features out of all of this and one serious and potentially unavoidable problem, and it is a big one. So, we will leave the bad news for last and the good news which will cause doom’s day to come and come quickly first. The best of news is that the meltdown in China is most likely to be relatively unfelt even amongst their Asian markets as China does not purchase many goods from outside and the few major needs she has will continue even if slightly abated, things essential like coal and petroleum. Further, the only nation carrying a trade deficit of any note is the United States and even should quotas be placed on any goods currently purchased from China will very likely have ten other sources with some popping up due to China cutting production. The European crisis is more likely to hit the United States harder than anything else on the economic horizon. Should the Eurozone break apart due to the collapse of several of their nations having financial difficulties and teetering at the edge of financial Armageddon plus one, Greece, which has in all honesty gone beyond the cusp and is currently running with his feet well away from solid ground just hanging there for that brief Wiley Coyote moment before collapsing into the darkness below only to make a small puff of dust rising depicting his hitting bottom. Even should the entire Eurozone collapse it may actually serve to keep a lid on inflation and allow for low interests rates, a necessity for the United States. That brings us back to the one thing that at first everyone would be glad to see, a real recovery with rising workforce participation which in the United States is down to approximately 63%, one of the lowest figures since the mid-1970s. This would also bring jobs, especially higher end job market opening up once again which would allow for a ripple effect. As the overqualified people working at menial or minimum wage jobs would leave those as jobs in their field became available and they gain employment thus making room for these other positions to employ more of the nations’ work force and soon inflation will return, something there has been no worry about as even the few months where such measurements showed a possibility for inflation to develop only for indicators to slide back the next couple of months with it often seeming like one big step forward and all promise breaking out only to be followed by three or four months of small to moderate steps backwards and everything gained to be lost and often more. When inflation does finally return for real then there will be a really bad situation. Once inflation starts to threaten then the interest rates will rise as a counter to inflation. Rising inflation takes a bigger bite out of people’s pockets all but actual theft. Inflation also helps with making the national debt somewhat more manageable by deflating the value of the currency taking the currency to new lows and the lessening to of the value of the debt and the purchasing power of that coinage. This was where Greece and the other nations in the Eurozone faced; they no longer had control over their coinage, their monetary worth so they were unable to simply lessen the value in order to get a handle on their debts and also make their nation more attractive to investors and new businesses. Perhaps leaving the Eurozone for a set period of possibly not less than two years and no longer than a decade or quarter century at which point they can reapply at the short end or must face a permanent decision at the longer end. Granted, this will possibly make some nations more reckless but the consequence is the only alternative to having the Eurozone nations turn their entire control of monetary and fiscal planning over to Brussels, they already control the monetary which is part of the problem, and most nations will refuse to be relieved of the power of the purse even if they are no longer able to control the coinage of said purse. Perhaps even a rotating schedule where every nation has to spend a decade using their own coinage would be another compromise. Until the Eurozone finds the answer they will be facing little impossible challenges as is Greece right now and others down the line. Let’s just hope their mistakes don’t become global economic-mines blowing the world markets haywire.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 19, 2012

European Union After the Greek Inevitable Collapse

Whether Greece is going to crash and be unable to pay the interest on their debt, let alone pay down the debt itself, no longer needs debating. The only discussion is when it will crash and what happens next. The crash could arrive this weekend or next weekend or some weekend coming in the near future, but my bet is it will officially succumb on a weekend in order to minimize any attention at the point of economic Armageddon. The fall will bring troops in the streets to contain the breakdown of civil society which will rapidly follow. Within days the markets will run out of food and the petrol will cease to flow. Cash, even Euros, will likely no longer be accepted for trade and instead precious metals or other items of barter will replace money. Government will fail as the employees begin to realize that they are not going to be paid their salaries and even if they were, the money would be worthless. The run on the banks has already begun as when it all falls down the banks will be forced to close. The borders of Greece will close to people leaving taking anything of value out of the country. Precious metals, gems, jewelry and any other objects of worth will not be allowed to be taken out of the country. If I was currently living in Greece I would take what I could and flee the country now while it is allowed. The real problem will be the affect it will have on the European Union and the Euro.

The first thing one needs to realize is the current economic emergency in Europe is mostly traceable to the unified currency called the Euro. Because ever country which has joined the Euro currency exchange has a unified currency, the countries who are in financial trouble are unable to adjust their currency in order to make their debt easier to pay simply by deflating the currency. They are stuck with a Euro which has a set worth that is beyond their ability to control. If Greece was still using the Greek Drachma they could allow their economy to have had steady inflation which would have reduced the exchange rate of the Drachma against the other currencies in the world. This would have allowed Greece to stay on top of their debt as by allowing economic inflation they would be actually lowering their debt while also making Greek products less expensive thus more attractive on foreign markets and the lower cost of doing business would have attracted industries to Greece thus allowing them to recover and grow their economy. Being stuck with the Euro they had a currency that remained fixed by external factors thus Greece could not adjust their place within the world markets. This is what aggravated their problems to this point where everything will simply go bust. The Greek economy will no longer support the currency the country is forced to use. The fastest way to try to actually address the Greek crisis would be to allow them to immediately revert to their native currency and set the Greek Drachma at a favorable exchange level in order to stimulate their economy. It might be too late to have this avoid the default at this late date, but it might be something worth considering. The problem this would cause is it sets a precedent which other countries would use to get out of using the Euro thus making the Euro the currency of the elite European countries and pushing its relative value upwards which would weaken the stronger European Union member countries’, such as Germany, economies. Such a move would actually spell the end of the Euro and everybody would be rushing back to their individual currencies and Europe would be facing its old problems which the Euro was set to be the grand solution. I think with Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and soon France all being in need of an instrument for adjusting their debts and market place of trade in the world through currency manipulation that this will bring down the European dream of a unified currency. The Euro will be the initial casualty as the economic tsunami that is racing towards many of the European Union member states.

The real problem behind this tragic set of circumstances is the European Union attempted something that is impossible even when studied in simple economic theory. Countries which have independent governments with differing economic policies cannot share a unified currency. I realize the theory was that the European Union would become sufficiently powerful as to dictate economic policies to its member states. Even if the European Union did not possess universal power, as long as they could set limits or, at the very least, have strong influence over the interest rates, levels of indebtedness, amount of social spending as percentage of GDP and other fiscal policies in order to have a more unified economic set of policies, then the Euro might have succeeded as a universal currency. But as each country had different interest rates, different retirement ages, differing benefit packages for workers, and similar disparities on almost every economic function, a universal currency was marked to fail from the start. Now the European Union is facing its inevitable predicament of what to do when the limited common governance leads to sufficient economic disparities that the common currency of the union can no longer be universally sustained. The countries and governors of the European Union must now decide exactly which precedent it finds least contemptible, allowing Greece to return to its native currency the Drachma or force Greece from the European Union cutting it adrift to fend for itself. At least if they only allow Greece to adopt their former currency then Greece can allow the Drachma to adjust in value until they reach an equilibrium where their economy begins to reemerge and strengthen sufficiently that Greece rebounds from its plunge and begins a real recovery. The option of pumping more funds into Greece cannot be the solution because unless the Greek economy is rejuvenated such funds would simply be absorbed without relieving the problem which can only be accomplished by devaluing the Greek currency which is impossible as long as they use the Euro.

This is where everything gets interesting. Should the European Union take the easiest route and simply cut Greece from being a member of the European Union and wish them a fond, or not so fond, farewell they will be sending signal to the other countries facing economic troubles the message that should you get into dire straits we will not be there till the end. The European Union would then have to live with the reputation of a fair weather club which casts out anyone who upsets their happy economic cart. Such a move would very likely be the death knell for the European Union which would likely find itself losing numerous other nations, both those who are having problems and those who fear remaining within the European Union would eventually lead them to have problems. Very quickly we would likely see Spain, Portugal, and Italy following Greece out of the European Union and back to their own currencies and happily enjoying renewed economic freedom to do what they must to retain their current socialist oases while adjusting their currencies thus repairing their sick economies, something not possible from inside the European Union while depending on the Euro. The European Union might find itself reduced to a union that included Germany, France, Great Britain and possibly some of the emerging nations from Eastern Europe who are still coming into their own after decades of Soviet domination and repression.

The other route would be to allow Greece to return to using their own currency for a set period, say eighteen months or until their economy stabilized. Then allow them to return to using the Euro which would now be adjusted to the new level of the Greek Drachma. This would allow for Greece to revalue their currency and then return and have a Euro that was actually matched to their real economic dynamic. The problem is once Greece returns to using the Euro, the same problem would begin to build up unless Greece made some radical changes to their economic and social systems, something which they have proven they are adverse to. Should the permanent change be allowed where Greece returned to the Drachma and was never to return to using the Euro, this would then force other countries to take whatever steps were necessary to take themselves out of the Euro and return to their national currency. Once the dominoes start falling this would bring the end of the Euro as a viable currency. Then the question becomes exactly how long the European Union remains viable once almost everyone, if not everyone, returns to their native currencies. The odds are this would bring on the slow but natural death of the European Union as it can only survive as long as it ties the economies of the different nations to each other. Once everyone has returned to their native currencies, then each nation would have economic independence which is the exact opposite of what the European Union was supposed to accomplish. So, whichever way the European Union turns, if it does not both give Greece a path to repair their economy through devaluing their currency relative to the rest of the nations in the European Union, a neat trick, and eventually return Greece to full implementation of the European Union and the Euro as their currency, then it will only be a matter of time before the European Union collapses in on itself. Then we will once again have a volatile Europe which who knows where that will lead. If Europe’s past is any indicator then it may be that Europe is in for a rough future. Then again, most of the European countries have surrendered any military might for socialistic blight, thus they may no longer be quite as rambunctious as their previous histories indicated.

Beyond the Cusp

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