Beyond the Cusp

January 11, 2016

The Dream of Another More Distant Future

 

My view today is of the future and came mixed with yesterday’s visions and it will be taking place say in twenty-five to thirty years, possibly a little longer as I think some of the futurists such as Raymond “Ray” Kurzweil may be overestimating the advance in electronics, hardware and software and particularly when it comes to Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the ability of machines to design new machines and improve their own designs and being able to design the next generation which will replace their models which will design its own replacement and so on. But first let us direct our attention to the near events of the immediate future and into the coming decade which must be survived before we get to the Ray Kurzweil really different and somewhat scary future situations. Of course Ray is paid to picture opportunities for Google in the future so, needless to say but say we must or there would be no article, Ray Kurzweil’s views are almost all so perfectly upbeat and there could never be any real challenge as long as we stay zoned in on the future and keep abreast of how humanity can evolve with the technology. I have seen how my grandparents reacted and responded to the advancing technology of the twentieth century for the first three quarters and they were left in the dust from the 1960’s on but that was not really placing them at any real disadvantage. My parents are a totally different story. Televisions and cable remotes or even most of a VCR except for the always elusive how to program the clock after a power loss was well beyond their capabilities. If I had a dollar for every time I have had to reprogram the clock on their series of VCR’s where either they had not kept the manual and lost the remote which leaves one with a single option to rid them of that ever annoying flashing ‘12:00’ in the display; get two strips of electrical tape and cover it so they no longer can see it. Once my Dad complained that this solution did not work as he would know the clock was still flashing. I carefully, politely and deferentially advised him to just rest that thought next to the remote for the VCR and that complaint was not raised the next time we came to the same difficulty. Basically my Parents cannot even get mail from the computer if they lose the desktop icon. We will not even talk about cell phones and even making a call other than punching in the number from their phone-book or if the person has not called recently. They use the recent called list as their contact list so Heaven help anyone who does not call them regularly. Perhaps that is why I call them three times a week.

 

 

VCR Clock Frozen 1200 Failure After Power Loss

VCR Clock Frozen or Flashing
1200 Failure After Power Loss

 

 

But enough background and suffice it to say that ocular implants, neural sensory network reading our thoughts and releasing certain chemicals into our systems either intravenous, intramuscular, along neural paths or into the sheathing of the spinal cord to facilitate faster muscle reactions for both speed and reaction times for sports or fight-or-flight situations would be enough to freak one out but that is not the end of it. It would also pump extra O2 and adrenaline, norepinephrine, cortisol and increases deeper breathing as well as increased heart rate and shuts down any digestive processes temporarily diverting everything to your muscles and neural pathways increasing all physical abilities to the point where, if necessary, you could pick up a car and drop it on whatever frightened you. And then there is this which I am sure Ray Kurzweil will use in the future from new a study from Johns Hopkins University which shows that the brain cells surrounding a mouse’s neurons do much more than fill space. According to the researchers, the cells, called astrocytes because of their star-shaped appearance, can monitor and respond to nearby neural activity, but only after being activated by the fight-or-flight chemical norepinephrine because astrocytes can alter the activity of neurons. The findings suggest that astrocytes may help control the brain’s ability to focus. But wait, there’s more.

 

Ray Kurzweil predicts that people will augment their mental, physical, reactions, strength, speed, memory, reflexes, sight, hearing, smell, and, best of all, taste. We could have programmable nanites inside our bodies and a central sensing unit wired into the augmented neurological system which will register the first signs of any illness, cancer, virus, venomous bite or any threat to the body and it would use that same neurological augmented network to program the programmable nanites which would then combine and form whatever was required to fight or otherwise neutralize any threat. Other nanites would be utilized to repair and replace vital cells such as brain cells and neurons including those required for the enhanced neurological network and repair injuries such that should one fall and break their hip it would be completely repaired within a few hours without any need for X rays or a visit to the doctor. Your medical repair system would call your pharmacy and they would send the matrix required for the repair to be produced on your programmable, multi-use 3D printer which would produce the required items for the repair of your hip. Everyone will have such systems placed within their bodies and have access if they do not own a universal 3D printer, they will have access at data centers which will replace pharmacies, medical clinics, hardware stores and many other retail outlets as everything can be produced given the computer code. This melding of man and machine plus augmentations will grant the average person all the strength, endurance, health and intelligence which is beyond what we can even imagine today. This will very likely be the future where we each will have at least a basic issuance of many of these systems and the wealthier will still have the advantage in their being capable of purchasing improved, faster, more versatile, better features and every other advantage technology can provide them with even if it simply has a designer label. The good thing is that, just like the people who rush and camp out just to turn in their now obsolete and basically so dated and lacking in all the bells and whistles available on the latest cellphone, there will be plenty of people will make similar trade-ins with this technology as well. That makes these horrifically ancient five month old cellphones available for those who were unable or too smart to rush where those other fools had rushed just twelve hours ago so they could be amongst the very first, as witnessed by their four digit serial number against those purchasing one a week later with those yucky eight digit serial numbers. Then there are the more laid back but still nervous temperament who will pay premium price for those recently almost new cellphones were traded and they trade last year’s {Gasp} cellphones. And the models will drift down until everybody has a functioning cellphone though the majority does not have the latest cellphone which can be transformed into a racing quadcopter with direct cerebral guidance link built in! The same type of social pressures against financial restrictions will allow for all to have a workable unit with sufficient capabilities to provide general health and increasing augmentations as time progresses for all levels of the world. This would be a summation of the Ray Kurzweil world.

 

 

Robots on Parade

 

 

The problem here is the same as the problem with Ray Kurzweil’s design of what will happen with AI and the fact of his prediction that machines, read computers, will reach a level where their cognitive abilities will have equaled or exceed that of a human brain. He bases this on Moore’s law which predicts that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles approximately every two years. Ray Kurzweil translates that into their doubling their capabilities every two years exactly as the density of the transistors being fit on circuit board. There are a number of problems with that assumption. First is there is a limitation on how much further the density on integrated circuits can be produced and still dissipate the heat efficiently without such causing failures. There is also a minimal size of connecting runs and the guaranteed endpoint of restrictions of the size of the molecules themselves required to produce the components themselves. Further, the complexity required will also require more advanced circuitry in order to hold the memory and registers as well as the processing unit itself will reach limits and in order to reach higher levels they will require the time-synchronizing multiple processing circuity in order to produce very-high computing power the only way conceivable, more data and addressing lines which makes routing problems rise exponentially. These things all work in conjunction with the limiting of the ability for computing power to continue its thus far meteoric rise. Moore’s law will someday soon be proven too optimistic just as the prediction alleged by Microsoft’s Bill Gates’s who predicted that 64k memory is all one will ever need.

 

Still, there are some predictions made by futurists which we are in complete accord with even if our assessment is it might take a good amount more time, but there are some monster changes coming in the not too distant future. We have already witnessed the initial onslaught of the robotic workers in manufacturing. There exist complete production lines which have become completely automated where robotic units and control software where all that is required is two or three people where twenty years ago the same factory likely required fifty or possibly more workers when one includes the supply room worker and test engineers and technicians who all have been replaced by robotic workers leaving minimal need for humans to run the show. There is one medical manufacturer who back in the last century decided to release the majority of their technicians who had repaired units which failed testing as the company decided that production costs were so low that it cost them more to repair units which failed testing than they were worth so instead they decided to simply discard any failed units and make more. The first areas we will see robotic workers will be initially in the fast-food industry which is being threatened severely by the drive which is picking up steam for a fifteen-dollar-an-hour minimum wage law which has already been enacted in some location inside the United States.

 

 

 

 

The new fast-food systems will be entirely different than the original automats of the mid twentieth century. We will initially see automated cooking stations where one or two or even three employees will replace multiple times what many currently employed. We could see some automated wait staff at the registers in these same fast-food locations. Initial robotic wait/cashiers will not be human looking but more or less like a robotic human as such but more like robot and might even be made to look almost comical and use such in an advertisement campaign to promote the new robotic helpers. They will avoid initially referring to the automated robotic units which will interact with the public as robots unless they can soften the possible downside which might turn people away. Eventually, and potentially sooner than many might like, there will be robotic workers interacting with the public which will be so human-like that one would have difficulty telling them from a human except that in many instances they will know beforehand. The robots are coming and coming as soon as possible in many industries as unions and minimum wage lobbyists push up the cost of human labor. One has to wonder who is behind the fifteen-dollar-an-hour minimum wage drive and one can only wonder if the robotic industry is attempting to hedge their bets and push things to a critical point. The other side is how long before more people than not have been replaced with robots, automated systems or nonbiologic units that there will be no sustainable way of governments supporting the numbers who will be incapable of finding any work at their skill levels. The minimal level requiring human employees will become more specialized and limited and requiring special or higher education, eventually post graduate degrees and eventually human employees will be a part of history like the work horse.

 

 

Robotic Personal Assistant and Augmentation Suit

 

The governments will be forced to find new manners of raising revenue or an entirely different form of societal structure. Any new system would today be considered as being socialist but that would be a misnomer once the vast majority of jobs have been taken over by AI robotic workers, potentially even the politicians will also have been replaced by a master computerized controller which will double as the master comptroller. The one thing we know for sure is the world and our societies are going to be drastically different all depending on what decisions and potentially the ability for Turkey to return to the rules of their constitution, a somewhat dubious prospect, and the efforts of Egyptian President Sisi who definitely could use an ally from Turkey or other major Muslim nation. The first step to the future might depend on the survival of Western civilization and it’s technological to survive long enough to reach these promising future discoveries. The next decade to decade and a half will make all the difference and that starts with what may be the most frantically desperate attempt by the world to imitate a demolition derby in human history. So, if you have been ignoring or never cared about politics and history, this is the time to take whirlwind crash course and once you have a grasp on the weight of things to come, work to retain some semblance of sanity in the world which treasures scientific reason and the belief in a higher essence which treasures morality, virtues, and ethics with a firm grasp on truth, reality and the essence of being a part of humanity with free will, free thought, freedom, respect, and a thirst for knowledge of liberty and the responsibilities that engenders if one expects to protect such absolutes. Accepting reduced or limited forms of any will eventually result in diminishing forms of all resulting eventually in slavery or worse, especially as human society will be under some form of control within the century which will be absolute and no individual or group will be permitted to threaten the entities who have the claim to the seats of power.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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October 26, 2015

The Carefully Laid Plot Unfolds Slowly

 

The Third Intifada, what our Arab peace partners call the Stabbing Intifada, has been planned as the introduction to what they are plotting will be so much more. Their allies will gather over the coming months from places expected and some unforeseen. One of the first gatherings came this past week and instigated the abrogation of one of the few peace accords Israel has with her neighbors. Numbering over fifty, Bedouin leaders published a joint statement calling on Jordanian King Abdullah II to take on the task of building an army readying them to stand as the vanguard to take back Jerusalem. Arabi 21 news site quoted the statement accordingly, “Arab regimes in general, and the Jordanian regime in particular, have shirked their religious, national, and ethical responsibility towards the most important Arab and Muslim problem, the Palestinian problem. The events in the occupied land and at the al-Aqsa Mosque would not have happened if it wasn’t for the incompetence of governments and their actions in the service of the Zionists, Americans, and national enemies.”

 

 

Third Temple on Temple Mount Sharing with Dome of the Rock as equals

 

The statement proposed the Jordanian King assemble the “Return Brigade” from within the Arab refugee camps and displaced persons, a combination of the refugees grandchildren from the First Failed War to Annihilate Israelis both Jewish and Arab of 1948-9 with further candidates drafted from the camps of Syrian refugees augmented with new supporting brigades of Jordanian nationals and fully supported by the Jordanian military. Together the force should be applied to attack and conquer Jerusalem and the holy sites in the city, especially the al-Aqsa Mosque, Dome of the Rock and the remainder of the holy places on al-Haram al-Sharif (Temple Mount). The reason for building these brigades was to assure Israeli understanding that the campaign against them, the “Zionist enemy”, is truly ongoing and rather than a conflict over borders, it is a religious struggle for the restoration of Islamic Arab hegemony over all the lands and the complete defeat of the Zionist impostors who infect these Arab lands. The entirety of the struggle which has been continuous since before the turn of the last century and now covered over a century without end and will continue, according to many an Imam, Arab leaders and amongst many Muslims throughout the Middle East and beyond into Africa, until the Zionist Entity has been eradicated. One wonders how many of the over fifty Bedouin leaders will be sacrificing their tribespeople to this cause or are they demanding this task to be imposed only upon others. It would be nice to have a full understanding of exactly who and how many and from where the adversaries will be drafted and gathered once more on Israeli borders with the promise of extinction for the Jewish People even if only in Eretz Yisroel.

 

Many will see this story and pass it off as another stand alone and singular item not part of a greater whole, but in the end there are no stand-alone incidents in the end, just a series of chains of events that all too often become interwoven into a massive chain driving events which make for pivotal moments in history. Some of these events are unalterable and others are where mankind makes their own path. In the end we can only strive and pray that our efforts are towards that which we can change and often it is best to pretend that all is within our power to effect, after all, everything else will be as will be and all we could have done was our best. There will need to be far more events, some which will make the news but most will be hidden from view until, as it is always stated in Hollywood movies, too late.

 

 

Left side map depicts the division of the Promised Land amongst the tribes and right side map compares the modern promised land from the Jordan west to the Mediterranean Sea compared to the maximum of area during King David’s and King Solomon’s reigns.

 

 

Today was a blue ribbon day as another little piece of the puzzle came from Mahmoud Abbas as he and Jordanian King Abdullah II met with John Kerry to attempt to find ways of diffusing the ongoing violence on the Temple Mount, Jerusalem and throughout Israeli territory, within and outside the Green Line. Channel 10 in Israel reported Saturday night that the Arab Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is demanding Israel provide him significant political concessions in exchange for any efforts to stem the ongoing wave of Arab Palestinian terror. This all came about as a result of a series of meetings between Mahmoud Abbas with both United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Jordan’s King Abdullah Saturday on calming the tensions in the region. His first demand is the low hanging fruit and most obvious demand as Abbas has made this demand almost incessantly since the last set of steps of negotiating fell apart once the news that Abbas and the PA delegation were planning on terminating all contact with Israel immediately after the fourth and last set of prisoner releases which is now his opening demand even before discussing the rest of the list of coming demands. Abbas made a secondary demand that he absolutely must receive an official statement from Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu admitting to and willing to meet the reopening of talks, of mediations, under agreed upon conditions. Exactly what the remainder of the agreed upon conditions is not entirely defined at this point in time.

 

This all assumes that Abbas can even defuse the current situation, something many believe, yours truly included, sincerely doubt Abbas actually has such influences. Making such an assignment even more dubious is the threat by Hamas to torpedo any chance of talks in the region. Arab Palestinian sources have revealed that Hamas plans to increase levels of the incitement as well as perpetrating their own attacks in Jerusalem and throughout other areas within Israel wherever possible. Additionally, there have been reports of new insertions of new IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) trainers and supplemental forces to augment Hezballah frontline units, train new Hezballah units for the fight in Syria as well as potentially opening a new front against Israel from within Syria and potentially from within Lebanon as well. Some believe that the stationing and equipping new Hezballah units is being made possible by the recent or coming infusions of funds as well as the riches to be gained through the dropping of all sanctions. There is such a high probability, such as to be next to certainty, that Iran will use funds they receive in the coming year as the recently reached nuclear agreement is implemented, will be restocking Hamas supplies elevating the probability of yet another offensive out of Gaza launching hundreds or thousands of rockets with ever increased range and lethality. Fortunately Israeli-Egyptian relations, where frosty, are peaceful and actually have some beneath the board agreements and security coordination concerning the Sinai Peninsula and even Gaza. Egypt has also spent the time, treasure, manpower, planning and execution of steps to all but obliterate the network of smuggling tunnels under the border between Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula. As long as Egyptian President Sisi remains in power, then tranquility bordering on coordination and joint actions will largely continue in place.

 

There are other situations which hold threats for Israel going forward. There is always the danger of a large scale attack with well beyond acceptable losses, not that any loss should be viewed as a mere statistic, as should that day befall us, and let us all pray such never becomes valid, then the entire idea of status-quo will be blown apart possibly never to return as it is claimed currently. There will be the ever growing threat of rockets or missiles from Iran, an all on invasion by Islamic State launched across Jordan and on to the Arab Palestinian lands giving the Islamic State a beachhead against Israel. Then there is the constant verbal bludgeoning Israel receives from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. There is little doubt that given half a chance to defeat the Jews, Erdogan would dedicate whatever troops he felt would be required. The real problem is that there are Arabs and a few others around this globe who see nothing wrong regarding their defeating of the Jews, all of the varieties from the least religious, universalistic Jews or the uber religious Jews. To reach this end the Arabs may never be required to accept the Jews, Christians, Buddhist, and many others who have already been swallowed partially by Islam and know that it is about the particular uniqueness of Islam which demands as a holy act that it erase all which preceded them and conquer and convert those who claim to have come after them as they claim to be the sole repository of truth and the final word on all faith and thus all must either be preceded by Islam and thus an offshoot who has lost their way or beseeching forgiveness if they hold to religious beliefs which preceded Islam. Theirs is the ultimate and final end of self-aggrandizement claiming to be the final rendition of replacement theology thus they believe there can be none other.

 

 

The Isamic Creed

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

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