Beyond the Cusp

September 16, 2019

Election Day is Almost Here

 

Well, we are going to try and elect a government one more time tomorrow. We attempted to do so back in April but that became a bad joke as nobody could reach the magic number of sixty-one mandates. There is a better than even chance that we will simply have a repeat performance by an evenly divided country. Now, we know the question on so many minds, how can there be an election without one side reaching a majority. The answer is easy to understand once one realizes that a large segment of the populace refuses to join with either the left or right, the Arab sector parties. When Ra’amBalad and HadashTa’al, both a combination of far-left party and an Arab party plus another Arab party with a Communist party, take on average around ten to a twelve mandates, this means the major parties need to gather sixty-one or more mandates out of merely one-hundred-eight to one-hundred-ten available mandates. This means that instead of being required to form a government with fifty-percent of the vote plus one mandate, to form a government they require between fifty-five-percent to fifty-seven-percent plus one to form a government, a far more difficult task. These outlier parties have as part of their platforms anti-Zionism, support for two-state-solution, socialism/communism and a general disregard, if not outright hatred, of the right and simple disdain for the left and support for Israeli Arabs plus the Arabs of the Palestinian Authority and those in Gaza. Israelis will await the results as it is unsure which side, right-wing or left-wing, will be able of forming a coalition. So, what should the world expect come Wednesday morning and the results are finalized?

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

We can all expect another close election with the balance being determined by which side gets their supporters to the polls to vote. Initial indications from those permitted to take advantage of early voting have presented a disturbing realization, they are voting at a rate measurably below their percentage in April. Should this hold valid for the turnout for the elections tomorrow, it means that whichever side loses the least in turnout will likely come out as the leader. But just because one side receives a larger percentage of the vote does not mean that they will realize sufficient support to form a government. Things have gotten to the point of absurd as Bibi Netanyahu came out making a similar announcement so as not to be outdone by the Blue White Party, where Ganz stated he would accept Arab parties in his coalition if needed to form a government and that negotiations were proceeding in that direction; Bibi stated he would not refuse to work with Arab Ministers who might join his coalition. The reality is almost every Arab Minister from the Arab parties would never join a Bibi led coalition, but Ganz could be a wholly different and definitive possibility. Even should either side make a coalition with Arab Party Ministers, such a coalition would be excessively shaky and unlikely to be sufficiently stable to survive even one year.

 

So, what has accurately changed since April? One thing is that Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu Party, has entered into a vote sharing where should one part be close to attaining an additional seat, the other party can gift them any votes which would not cost their party a position. This is performed in order to attempt and provide one of the parties, and thus their combined number of mandates, an additional position. Lieberman had been seen as potentially leading his party along with the rest of the right-wing parties and this places Yisrael Beiteinu definitely allied with the left-wing and has removed any doubt as to their current loyalty. This is a definite change from history and was suspected when Lieberman refused to join any government led by Netanyahu, thus moving to the left of center. This could result in their receiving fewer votes and thus mandates with some of their more conservative members leaving and joining Likud or possibly even Yamina combined right party. This will be another of the variables which will be beyond the polls and prognosticators ability to accurately predict. Then there is the other difficulty which drives and makes Israeli elections different and more variable than other parliamentary governments, the fact that there are numerous, what are best described as, personality parties where they are centered around a person whose positions are often either narrow or even contradictory such as being largely a right-wing party as well as marijuana legalization, which often fail to reach the threshold in order to receive ministers in the government and thus their votes go wasted. This often leads to what becomes lost positions and mandates for either side depending on how many of such parties or alliances of such parties fail to make it into the government. On the other hand, should the majority of such parties on either side actually make it into the government, then that side will have a stronger position in forming a government.

 

So, what have the polls been claiming? Here we must be honest; we have tended to disregard Israeli polling as it is often well off the mark. If President Trump is to be believed, then Prime Minister Netanyahu will waltz to victory with ease, another thing we doubt as nothing in Israeli politics is easy. What people have mentioned in conversations about the elections is that there are polls claiming the right will form the next government and claiming the left will form the next government. There you have it, polls made to order, and that is the unfortunate reality about Israeli polling. Israel has the same dividing political criteria as in the United States. The big cities, starting with Tel Aviv, vote largely for the left-wing while the religious, Zionist and smaller cities tend to vote more right-wing. Similarly to the United States, the population is relatively evenly split with one exception, right-wing voters in Israel are often the ones more determined to make it out and vote. This may prove to be the defining difference when the dust settles and Israel will once more set out to form a government. The bigger question is which person, Bibi or Ganz and company, does the Israeli populace trust to lead the country sustaining the economy and keeping the nation safer. This is where the left very well could hit their largest problem, they are too defined by the memory of the Oslo Accords and the well over a thousand Israelis murdered in the following flood of terrorist attacks. Netanyahu has allowed for terrorism to be greatly decreased with the terror wall, technological miracles such as Iron Dome, and other mitigating factors. Netanyahu has also had the advantage of a strong economic picture. But he does have one looming fault which he has attempted to cajole and coax a picture of his turning over a new leaf and suddenly has reached a point where he claims he will extend Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley, all of the Israeli towns beyond the Green Line and numerous other offerings to the Zionists and stronger right-wing voters. Part of this rhetoric has been his weapon attempting to drive voters from the further right Yamina into the fold of Likud. Netanyahu has gone what some may see as overboard with claims that Yamina will not pass threshold and thus voting for them is wasting your vote and only the Likud is the safe vote. This has been the main difficulty with Bibi as he desires having a coalition made up of Likud without any other parties. By attempting to reach such, he often attacks the other right-wing parties which in the end makes forming a right-wing government that much more difficult as he could cost some of the smaller parties to fail to reach threshold thanks to his attacks. His attack on Yamina would be completely unfounded as it is a coalition of parties which Bibi pushed and pressured Jewish Home, National Union and The New Right to combine so they would easily pass threshold and now he is attacking them for not being able to make threshold. Netanyahu has also been seen to be attacking largely Zionist parties such as Yamina which makes his promises for extending sovereignty all the less believable. Only a strong showing by Yamina would be capable of holding Netanyahu to his word while others would allow him to forget these promises seeing them simply as politicking for these elections.

 

Then there is always the question as to who other than Bibi can lead Israel from the right. That is a question which will have to be seen after the era of Netanyahu as the Likud is the eight-hundred-pound gorilla in the room. But this will change over time and within the next thirty years, and conceivably less, the leading party will likely be a coalition of religious-Zionist parties which will have taken control of Israeli politics. This prediction is based on simple mathematics. The religious sector in Israel, as in the United States and Europe, are reproducing at a far higher rate than the left-leaning populace. This population will be split between the Haredi Parties and the religious-Zionist parties and somewhat less for Likud. There will be, for some time, the ability for Likud to continue to lead as long as they can find some means of retaining the support of the Haredi Parties. Eventually, their allegiance will be swayed to support of the religious-Zionist groupings as they take the lead ahead of the Likud. But all of this will take a few decades and, in the meantime, Israel is a very divided nation with a fine enough balance that we might not form a government with these elections either making new elections in another three months necessary.

 

So, what happens if we have another election which does not produce a government? Well, as we have mentioned to friends and observed, Israel is doing just fine without any functioning elected government and the main difference is there is less news. We have always felt that less news is good and no news is great despite it making blogging more difficult. Eventually Israeli populous will figure out what is what and a government will be voted into power and then we will have more news than we probably desire. We have often found the old Ronald Reagan quote of, “Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem.” Perhaps this is partly why we have no problem having Israel continue without a government. Further, as long as we do not have a government, we will not have Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” something we have had a great deal of trepidation concerning what it may present. We are aware that the State Department likely had a fair amount of influence, and that is one area of the United States government which has proven to be very much anti-Israel and definitively anti-Zionist. Their influence is the central figure in our consternation. Perhaps Israel being unable to form a government is Hashem’s way of protecting her from potential disasters where Israel is once again forced to make concessions without a single guarantee that such concessions will bring us any peace. The greatest three concessions Israel has made have been some of the most destructive and now constitute the greatest threats to Israel’s future. The first was the Oslo Accords which brought us the two-state-solution paradigm which promises to produce even more terror wars were it ever to be fulfilled, the pulling of the IDF out of Lebanon without any promise for safety on the northern border leading to Hezballah on the northern border representing the Iranian desires and whims and finally the Gaza withdrawal which produced Hamas and Islamic Jihad who both are also enforcers of the will of Iran. We have our doubts that Israel could survive too many more peace plans as each brings us a new disaster and the renewed threat of devastating wars in the future. The only secure resolution of the Arab threats to Israel is the world finally actually fulfilling the promises we were given and are still the only solution which meets with International Laws, treaties, conferences, Mandates and all enforceable by the United Nations. We are not fools and realize that much of the world desires an end to the state of Israel even if it costs, or especially if it costs, the lives of seven-million Jews. Perhaps the reality is Israel is safest and best off as long as she does not have a government upon which such future demands would be pressed. Yes, perhaps no government is the best government, something Thomas Jefferson would have understood and likely supported.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

August 13, 2019

2020 American Elections as Seen from Israel

 

The consensus here, from those we meet and greet daily, is that President Trump will win reelection. There are but two questions on which there is a fair bit of leeway in the opinions. The first is by how much with the range being anything from a squeaker to President Trump moving the bar even higher than President Ronald Reagan has set it. The other is about the cheating which is widely seen as inevitable but still unable to alter the final results. What the main disagreement over the cheating is less about the amount of cheating but more about whether those conducting the campaign to potentially steal the election by fudging the numbers in numerous battleground states will be caught and spend any jail time. Here at BTC we believe that in the areas where the cheating could occur are regions where nobody working for the predominant party would ever be charged with tampering so nobody is going to jail. Some we talk with believe that so much cheating will be attempted in order to sway the elections that it will be beyond the abilities of anyone to ignore and people will be held as responsible and face trial and jail time. Most everyone believes that those at the top, the Obamas and Clintons, will escape without as much as a scratch just as they have always done and will continue into the future unless somebody with iron-tight security decides they need to answer to the American people. So, why even discuss the elections if it appears from here across half the globe that President Trump will be reelected and everything else will be pretty much exactly as it has been in the past? Because there are rumblings which some over here are worried for the America they thought they knew, as what they are reading now depicts some massive changes and many not for the better.

 

The thought of a civil war in the United States, something which a number of editorialists have written, is a definitive possibility or even an inevitability. This type of information does not sit well with the average Israeli’s view of the United States. Partly this is the fault of Israelis who have this idealist view of the United States while others have this 1950’s or 1960’s view where people line their lawns with white picket fences and everyone cooks out on their bar-b-ques every Sunday afternoon in the summer and wave to one another while shoveling snow in the winter. They were not born during these times and grew up listening to their parents rave about the greatness of America and how it almost became the Promised Land. Most Americans know the old tales about the streets are lined in gold and anybody can make it if they just work smart and hard. These old, tall tales are actually believed by some and trying to tell them that things are no longer like that is not an easy row to hoe. It is definitely an uphill struggle to break many Israelis of such beliefs just as it is near impossible to get them to understand that the United States will not be there for Israel in the not too distant future. It is difficult to even prove that the United States aid to Israel did not begin in earnest until the 1970’s and President Nixon was the man who started the aid resupplying Israel over the protestations and advice of many of his advisors. The shocked reaction we receive when we warn that the United States aid to Israel is not going to last forever is as fascinating as it is frustrating. The only thing which Israelis love, respect and expect more from than the United States is their beloved Israel. This may just be what will be necessary to do without United States aid as that will be a day of panic here in Israel despite the reality that Israel should be capable of not only surviving that day and what comes afterwards but will very likely thrive in that future. Currently, Israel is holding up her end of the deal and not producing combat or other aircraft in exchange for the United States taking care of that area. This promise started when Israel shut down her plans for production of the Lavi fighter jet. This deal will end when the United States decides that Israel is just that much of too expensive a friend to continue the relationship. But there is more to the coming break-up, and it has to do with the new additions to the Democrat Party who, along with numerous members of the Black Congressional Caucus and those behind and driving Black Lives Matter, Antifa, CAIR, BDS and numerous other leftist NGO’s and activist organizations. Israelis are having a rough time figuring out where these groups came from unless they are simply in denial that these groups exist.

 

Many Israelis reacted with a degree of shock over the statements made by Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez when these items became more well known. True, the Tel Aviv region is more worldly and mostly ignore much of what they learn because they are the heart of the Democrat Party support in Israel. These are largely the former supporters of the Labor Party in Israel and who are now the main support for the Blue-White Party of General Ganz and Yair Lapid. But even a number of these left-wing Israelis are appalled at the reports about Rashida Tlaib and even more perturbed over the antics and statements of Ilhan Omar which were widely reported before their recent visit. There was a degree of overreaction to their visit. This was largely due to the simple fact that everyone knew why these two came to the Promised Land, and it was about as far from a goodwill mission as any can get. Further, with the way these three with little other support have all but taken over the Democrat Party which has been evidenced by the statements against Israel made by virtually all of the Democrat Party Presidential hopefuls. This brings us to the Democrat Party Presidential hopefuls and their apparent potential for posing any challenge to President Trump. Well, at least this is the general feeling over here. What is frightening is the potential that serious violence could break out after the elections should President Trump be reelected. Of course, we in Israel, who are seemingly unable to elect a government as the nation is so evenly divided, we have little room to talk, at least the United States has a system which almost rules out such troubles. We just had to take the worst ideas of all the European, mostly western European, parliaments and added our own twist just to make everything dysfunctional.

 

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

 

Probably the worst, and thus the most challenging, problem which could erupt after a Trump victory would be rioting in the cities led by BLM and Antifa. Of course, any reaction to the election will be blamed on President Trump, doubly should he prove victorious as we predict. What will complicate many of such situations is that the President cannot intervene unless invited by the governor or potentially the mayor of the city. So, we can see the situation where the rioting is in cities where their mayors and their state’s governors are all democrats seeking to blacken President Trump for winning his reelection bid. The President cannot act without either his assistance being requested by the Mayor or Governor or President Trump declares the city a national disaster area which would also blow-up in his face. No matter what President Trump attempts to accomplish, he will be called racist or fascist as we explained here a while back. If he waits for the city or state to make a request, they can stall while the mainstream media attempt to blame President Trump for his obvious inaction and lack of caring for these cities in distress. Should President Trump declare any of the areas a federal disaster zone in order to intervene, he will be cast as uncaring for these cities because they did not support him and they are people of color. He will be in a damned if you do, damned if you don’t type of situation where whatever you do is wrong according to the New York Times, Washington Post and the rest of the plethora of leftist media. But a civil war will not break out even should President Trump win reelection and especially if he should not prove victorious. Nobody who makes such decisions desires to see a civil war break out as they have far too much to lose and the risk of losing everything would be far too great. The powers that exist on both sides of the isle, Democrat or Republican, Leftist or Conservative, Capitalist or Socialist; any way you slice the pie, any war, especially a civil war, runs a very high risk of destroying the pie or largely diminishes what pie is left to cut.

 

Unrest is a completely different problem. There are two very different kinds of unrest, that which was called for by an organizer and that which just rose literally from grassroots. The first can get beyond the organizer’s ability to control which then transforms the unrest into a warped version of the grassroots unrest. The grassroots unrest is the more difficult to put out as it had different leaders throughout the separate breakouts of unrest. Grassroots unrest lacks a single leader which makes negotiations next to impossible. The only way to restore peace in a city torn apart by social unrest is through superior force deployed either by the police or National Guard if required. The trouble is finding the sufficient but least amount of force required to end the unrest and restore peace to the community. This is likely the aftermath of the coming 2020 elections. But the United States will continue as the world super power and a wealth producing country which a mostly capitalist economy. While, for the time being, in Israel the September election in Israel, our second one this year, where we, if the polls prove correct (they rarely do), the coming elections will once again fail to provide either Likud or Blue-White the capability of forming a governing coalition as the Arab parties refuse to join any government and this makes reaching the necessary sixty-one mandates, as with the approximately thirteen Mandates which are not going to join any coalition, impossible. This requires that to make a ruling coalition, one requires reaching sixty-one mandates out of the remaining one-hundred-seven available after subtracting the Mandates of the Arab parties. This makes it necessary to claim instead of just over fifty-percent to needing slightly over fifty-seven-percent, almost ten-percent more than was the original plan when the system was implemented. Then either Israel will have to hold another election and continue doing so until somebody proves victorious and the Knesset forms around one side or the other. Hopefully, Israel will reach and form a government before the United States election results are known in November of 2020. The American election which should worry Israelis is the 2024 elections when the Democrat Party top tier people will vie for the nomination and the Republican Party will no longer have Trump or anybody even remotely similar and much of their base could end up returning to their hibernating position simply working and doing so despite any and everything. Then Israel might find herself on the wrong end of American foreign policy, and even more likely should people like Rashida Tlaib, Ilhan Omar and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez still hold any power. One need remember that Ilhan Omar received posting to the Foreign Affairs Committee, a very high and powerful position which is seldom if ever given to an entering Congressperson. Ilhan Omar is being groomed for higher office once the Democrat Party takes the White House. This future is what Israel should rely upon and why Israel must finally break free from dependence on the United States and learn to stand on her own two feet. The two graphs below show that American aid to Israel has remained level at approximately three billion dollars while Israeli GDP has grown from almost nothing back in the early 1969’s when Israel was struggling and when United States aid to Israel started in earnest, Israeli GDP had reached approximately thirty-five-billion dollars, which means that American aid was equal or just under one third of the total Israeli gross domestic product for that year. Currently, Israeli GDP stands at three-hundred-plus-billion-dollars making the current percentage the American aid presents is barely over one percent. That is right, a mere 1.02% of GDP, such an amount by comparison means that Israel will survive just fine without American aid monies and will be cut free from her dependence and subordination to the United States.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

 

 

But there is another bonus which will come when the day arrives that the United States cuts from Israel leaving Israel to fend for herself. Israel could benefit from the end of our mutually beneficial relations and Israel will continue to treat America as an ally and friend until such is made untenable. Further, Israel would then be required to design and produce her own aircraft just as she manufactures her own Merkava tanks. While Israel has to start to design her own aircraft, she should do the same for their infantry rifle and change to a heavier and more powerful round which still has extreme range, designed for desert warfare but equally adaptable to urban warfare. The development, production, assembly and other various necessary jobs will be created and these will be well paying jobs producing taxes which will increase the GDP and the general wealth of the country. Israel might even decide to construct a launching facility for rockets into space. The facility would be largely underground protecting the rocket and launch facility. The possibilities are virtually endless and developing these weapons and aircraft along with the Merkava, and if Israeli aircraft are as well adapted to the needs Israeli missions call for, it would be a desired aircraft on the open arms market. This will be the Israeli future simply because the United States, despite protestations, will break relations with Israel. The writing is on the wall already written there by none other than President Barack Obama and how he treated Israel and especially his drafting and permitting to pass United Nations Security Council Chapter Six Resolution 2334. The next Democrat President is very likely to build on that reputation and attitude against Israel. Even former Vice President Joe Biden was forced to step back from offering ironclad backing at the United Nations and claiming they will need to be fair to both sides, often the code that means Israel is going to be called on to sacrifice for peace and then all promises will be broken and Israel will have gifted something to the Arabs for nothing in return and no longer even have a reliable friend in the United Nations and the Security Council in particular. But very few ever heed our warnings and most believe we are simply overly concerned about things which could never happen. Maybe we should take bets that what we claim will happen by 2033 after the 2032 elections. But first the September Israeli elections and hopefully a government which is at the very least strongly Zionist and then the 2020 American elections which will probably reelect President Trump and then the 2024 elections when everything will be completely up in the air as the Republican Party has no candidate who could and would do as President Trump has done either as a candidate and as President. It will be interesting to see who the Republicans choose for 2024 and beyond as the United States reaches into the future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 12, 2019

Roller Coaster Pre-Election Ride Begins

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:54 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Where to start, why not with the good, the bad and the beautiful. The good is easy but also will prove difficult to mediate. The good comes from the United Right’s current number two, Bezalel Smotrich, who has spoken the truth which the vast majority of the religious right pray for at services every day, that Israel live and keep the Torah and its commandments throughout the land. This does not mean what the media paints it to mean, as it does not demand anything from anyone who is not Jewish. They are only requested to follow the Noahic Code with seven laws. The Jews, on the other hand, have a mere six-hundred-thirteen laws in Torah. Somewhere over one-third of these refer to the service of the Cohanim and the Levites and their duties and expectations serving in the Temple. We do not currently have a Temple nor has any government Minister really pursued such a venture in the Knesset, thus it is not on the drawing boards, not in the planning stage and likely nowhere on the horizon. This means that these laws will have to await the people of Israel demanding the Temple be built, something prayed for every morning, afternoon and evening but not expected any time too soon. The rest of the laws are largely basic decency, common sense and the dietary laws of Kashrut. The majority of grocery stores sell only kosher food and are certified to have taken out the appropriate tithes and everything meets the high standards of the law. Restaurants are a separate issue but there are sufficient kosher restaurants even including some fast food establishments. What may amaze many people is that it may be likely, unless your favorite lunch location is not kosher, that the vast majority of people, Jews and non-Jews alike, probably lead lives that, outside of prayers they may ignore saying, are close to or within the demands of Torah. So, when Bezalel Smotrich spoke of his desire for Israel to become a nation whose laws and people kept to the Torah, he was speaking of a desire held by many and not transgressed by more than most might believe. He could just as easily spoken of the desire for the coming of the Mashiach, and we bet that would have drawn just as much scorn from any in the left-wing media, unfortunately that is the majority of the media. Their scare mongering will dredge up more hatred and mistrust between the people which is their intent. But speaking of such desire for Israel to become a Torah observant society is a very nice though and natural desire for the religious Zionist as well as other observant groups such as the Haredi. Nobody would even think twice had a Haredi leader made the same statement as that is acceptable from them as their voters mostly do not include the secular community. The entire flap over this was due to the attempt by the media to frighten the secular community, specifically the secular Zionists, into fearing the religious right parties over an event which was far more innocent than portrayed. Hopefully, the media feeding frenzy will be seen for what it was, an attempt at voter manipulation. It is really sad that the media here in Israel resorts to such tactics, but they will do whatever it takes to try and push the voting public into electing a left-leaning government.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

The bad is an internal desire which was expressed largely within the Blue White Party but which did receive some mention by the media. This was a request, perhaps a demand, for Yair Lapid to lay low and quiet over his otherwise normal denunciation of the Haredi community. Are some of the views expressed by Yair Lapid accurate and in need of a solution? The answer is of course some of these complaints necessary, but his solutions would actually be detrimental to the desires he expresses. The Haredi community are people, believe it or not, people just like all other people. As a normal community, they will adapt to changing needs and other factors at their own speed. On the other hand, if such a community believes they are being pressured, pushed and manipulated to change, they will resist such change just because people resent being pushed into change. What Yair Lapid is ignoring is simply because his vision is clouded by his personal apparent dislike for the Haredi community and their favored treatment due them legally under laws and appropriations made by the Knesset. Part of their favored treatment comes due to their guaranteed number of Ministerial positions they receive in every election from a devoted and unified community. The thing is some Haredi are already voting outside their dedicated voting bloc. This makes them what are called king makers as their bloc is necessary to reach the sixty-one mandates to form a coalition whether that coalition is left-wing or right-wing. Due to their crucial voting bloc, the Haredi will receive an identical set of concessions from either side, over the tantrum which would likely be thrown (in private) by Yair Lapid. The demand that his Blue White Party run with part of their platform for the forcing of the Haredi to allow more of their youth to be drafted for IDF service and their being coerced into joining the workforce in larger numbers would be a guarantee to never have the Haredi join them in a coalition. Their insistence that Yair Lapid tone down his Haredi rants is a purely political measure as they know that if they would ever be chosen to form a coalition, they would absolutely be required to include the Haredi parties.

 

Ayelet Shaked

Ayelet Shaked

 

The beautiful is easy as former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked (pictured above) has made a semi-official announcement that she will be running for a position in the Knesset in the coming September elections. This semi-announcement about her return left out one important item; she forgot to mention exactly which party she intended to make her run with and what position she wished to take in their list. There have been those claiming she will be part of the Likud Party and others have called for her to replace Rafi Peretz at the top of the United Right Party list. Which one is the most likely? Well, I have doubts that she will replace Rafi Peretz at the top of the list with the United Right and Bibi Netanyahu has stated that he is not considering inviting Ayelet Shaked into the fold with Likud. So, where does this leave Ms. Shaked now as the leader of one list is not expecting to be replaced and the head of the other party simply is not interested in having her join the party. Perhaps we can find a small hint from her statements at the small ceremony given when she left the Justice Ministry. One of her comments was that she expects to return to the Justice Ministry. The interesting thing about her desire to return to the Justice Ministry does not require that she head any party’s list. She was not the leader of Jewish Home when she received the Justice Minister posting. She was number two behind Naftali Bennett. She was the number two behind Naftali Bennett on the list for the New Right Party which she and Naftali Bennett founded right before the last elections where that party did not quite pass threshold to make it into the Knesset. When Bibi Netanyahu was unable to reach an amicable agreement with Avigdor Lieberman who was making the same demands which he had pressed leading to the call for new elections in the first place, that situation is most likely not going to change with Avigdor Lieberman which means that should Bibi Netanyahu be tapped again, he will be relying on the right-wing, religious and, of course, religious Zionist parties. The good news for these elections is that such is very probably what will happen as long as the Haredi Parties also join the government coalition, something which is largely expected. So, the situation with Ayelet Shaked will depend on which party’s list she lands within. We can probably safely bet that she will not be placed atop of either Likud or United Right. There is still the possibility that she will remain with Naftali Bennett if the New Right is reformed for another attempt to pass the threshold this time around.

 

We can provide some free advice for Naftali Bennett, if he reforms the New Right, he should place Ayelet Shaked in the number one slot and take the second slot himself which would be more probable to put them over the threshold. There is one item which is the biggest guarantor of failure in politics such as in other professions, that is an overly inflated ego believing that they are the answer that the people are craving and if only you present yourself then they will flock to your banner. When you are Bibi Netanyahu and have been Prime Minister for the past decade and lead the strongest party, or at worst the second leading party, and may become the longest serving Prime Minister by the time of the coming elections, then you can have such an ego. No, we are not claiming that Bibi has an over-inflated ego. This is about all the actual excitement we have seen over the coming elections in Israel. More over the weeks to come and perhaps things will heat up. We can tell that the Blue White Party is confident that they should receive the nod from President Reuven Rivlin to form the next coalition. They are confident that with the Haredi Parties they will be able to form a coalition. There may be some questions as to this confidence. The Labor Party is in a tailspin and hoping primary elections for what they hope, and as Avi Gabay has decided that he will resign from leading the party and dropped from the primary list, will be a new leader as the latest polls showed that the Labor Party, the party which led Israeli politics for decades until 1979 when they lost the coalition making position, was not polling sufficient to pass threshold. Labor has also sought to join another party as a joint list, either Blue White, Meretz or another left-wing party but they have not had any takers as of yet. As the elections grow closer, they will have a better chance for this alternative. But with the left polling lower and lower, there may be doubts about the optimism of the Blue White Party. We will try and find more fun things concerning the September 17th elections in future articles.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.