Beyond the Cusp

April 14, 2020

Israeli Political Stalemate Strikes Again

 

 

When nothing has changed between now and whenever President Rivlin finally surrenders to reality, these are our observations and thoughts. Should everything remain as it appears, Israel will be going to a fourth set of elections. It appears that yet another election will likely leave things the same without anyone able to form a coalition numbering sixty-one or more Knesset Ministers. These past three elections fit neatly into the Einsteinian definition for insanity, performing the same tasks expecting different results.

 

We here at BTC are going to go out on a limb and predict a winning side; but first, our reasoning behind the change we see coming. Former Blue-White leader, Benny Gantz, performed the political pirouette going back on any number of his former promises. There is one main U-turn which will damage him and lose him followers. This U-turn came when General Gantz (ret) attempted to form a government by allying with the Arab List. Even with this attempted new alliance, Gantz ended up unable to reach the magic sixty-one majority. This attempt also blew apart the Blue-White alliance leaving the former alliance torn asunder back into the component parties. This breakup comes at the same time as Labor and Meretz ended their alliance as well. Meanwhile, the parties making up the right-leaning alliance are well as in tact for as long as Bibi Netanyahu honors the promises made to them and not take away their ministries so as to bribe left-leaning parties to join the coalition. Breaking these promises would be the quickest means for destroying the right-leaning alliance.

 

We at BTC are actually looking forward to a new round of elections. These elections, we believe, will be held sometime in either August or September. The reason for holding the new elections that late is for any number of reasons including an end to the COVID-19 pandemic allowing people to feel safer being in groups and still allow for some time for campaigning. Granted, the vast majority of Israelis are set in their voting choices. So, what changes have we noted, despite the difficulties caused by the pandemic? The most obvious has been the breaking apart of the main left-leaning party, Blue-White, and another leftist alliance where one of the members is unlikely to break threshold. Of course, there is always the chance for any slip to come along and change everything.

 

Bronze Star of David

 

Well, guess the time has come to predict the results of any fourth Israeli elections. Top of the list will be Bibi Netanyahu yet again with sixty-two to as many a sixty-five mandates. The Arab List will remain between fourteen and seventeen mandates leaving less than a mere fifty mandates, falling completely from contention. Hopefully, Bibi can get past his paranoia suspecting that others are trying to replace the leadership of Likud into the future. While having Netanyahu returning one more time as Prime Minister may not be the most desirable, one last tour to collect more cigars and champagne and getting even deeper in trouble with the media; after Gantz’s recent self-destruction, there really is no other choice.

 

Taking the nearly identical results from the previous elections, the fourth elections will be predicted to simply be yet another repeat, yet we believe it could easily be the charm. What we advise Bibi Netanyahu, or any other right-leaning leader, to do is better Israel politically and place her beyond physical threat. The first effort should lead to completely annex all lands west of the Jordan River while providing any Palestinians desiring to leave with aid to assist their relocation. As for the remainder of time to the next elections, it would serve Likud and the right-leaning political wing to replace Bibi at the helm and promote a new leadership. Meanwhile, Israeli politics will remain one of the most absurd and delusional found on this Earth.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 16, 2019

British Choose Conservative Party While People Riot in Iran

 

The British elections led to a victory and mandate to complete BREXIT with Boris Johnson as their Prime Minister. But there was a secondary message coming from these elections, namely that the British renounced the hateful racism and anti-Semitism which had become part of the messages coming from the Labour Party in general and from Jeremy Corbyn in particular. The British elections were just the next step coming from Europeans demanding their nations return to their independence and away from the European Union (EU) and centralized rule from Brussels. We have to add that most of the distrust of the centralized power without any input, that the EU intends to spread over all of Europe, has come from former Soviet nations which perhaps remember their former results from centralized power ruling from Moscow.

 

Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson

 

These results will be used by some in the United States to boost their arguments about President Trump, both pro and con. These sorts of arguments are best just left behind as one walks away, as arguing with such people from either side, using the British elections as a predictor for the upcoming 2020 elections in the United States is simply a waste of one’s time. Yet, the results of the British elections will not be affecting much on the world’s stage as the central focus of the world revolves around two nations, the obvious is Iran followed by the favorite nation for United Nations General Assembly to condemn, Israel. Of these two, Iran is the larger problem which the world needs to find something to remove the current Judeophobia, prevent Iranian hegemony of the Middle East and, in a perfect world, return control over Iran to the Iranian people. These problems are far more important keeping a careful watch over Iran and the effects of her involvement in the Syrian strife and violence as well as her influences in places such as Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen and beyond. Currently, the ball is on the Iranian side of the court leaving more room for speculation backed only by feelings. So, what do we expect in the coming future?

 

News about the internal struggle spreading throughout Iran has been sketchy at best and totally suppressed about the remainder. Meanwhile, the people of Iran are fighting for new governance which is more representative of the Iranian people. There is a large and growing undercurrent eroding at the power wielded by the Mullahs currently ruling in Iran through use of force. The situation in Iran is exactly as one might presume, with fixed elections and other shams giving a pretense of democratic elections. This is what has led to the current round of rioting and protests against the current rulers. News about the spreading protests has been relatively disorganized at best and imposed silence at its worst. This leads to much news being pure speculation mixed with hope for the Iranian people.

 

Our biggest fears are that this atmosphere of rejection targeting the ruling Mullahs could lead to an irresponsible set of actions by the Mullahs. The most feared scenario includes a nuclear attack on the American Fifth Fleet of the United States Navy assigned to patrol the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and parts of the Indian Ocean as well as the nations bordering these waters. Their mandate includes Iran. Often another scenario is mentioned where Iran starts their offensive in earnest against Saudi Arabia while simultaneously launching a massive attack upon Israel used to distract the world’s attention. Such an attack would be played in Iran as their leadership taking care to protect the people from these outside menacing forces. We do not foresee Iran using force against Israel beyond the consistent launching rockets by the IRGC in Syria as any escalation could trigger a larger Israeli response. Iranian leaders are aware that Israeli leadership would be required to respond to missiles detected coming from Iran well before they would strike their targets and possibly crippling Israeli capabilities. Israeli leadership would need to decide how severe any Iranian attack might be as well as which warheads were launched, specifically as to whether any WMD’s were included in such an attack. Such weapons include chemical and bio weapons as well as nuclear warheads. Any such attack from Iran would be hopefully largely, if not totally, intercepted by the layered protective spheres of the Israeli anti-ballistic missile defenses.

 

Talking about any Iranian strike, our belief is that Iran has absolutely little if any desire to exchange ballistic missiles with Israel as they are aware that such an exchange would result in the destruction of much of Iran with potentially minimal destruction in Israel as Iranian missiles were intercepted by Israeli defensive systems. Should Iran strike anyone, the most likely target would be the American naval ships off her coasts. Iran has been observing how President Trump has pulled American forces from much, if not all, of the Middle East battlegrounds. This has probably led to their concluding that President Trump would avoid any direct conflict initiated by Iran. They likely feel that such an attack could lead to concessions from the United States in order to avoid further American casualties. Such presumptions are the perfect setting for an ever-escalating exchange between Iran and the United States where Iran would be the loser. The United States would not consider herself as the victor as the resulting protests against the use of force and against Trump would prove to be a divisive and destructive force in the country.

 

This leads to our final vision of the future and the results of the people rioting across Iran demanding new governance and an end to the rule by the Mullahs. We fear that the results from these protests will be the deaths of thousands of Iranians as the Mullahs will refuse to go down without a monumental fight. In the end, the rulers of Iran will unleash the IRGC and the Basenji Militias upon the protesters. It will result in a near exact copy of the 2009 protests except with far higher casualty count for those protesting. Should the pro-democracy Persians, the actual and correct name for most of the Iranian people, start taking to the streets in vast numbers, their success or failure will be dependent upon what response and potential arming the Iranians receive from the United States. The knife edge upon which the world currently sits has Iran and the United States in direct opposition to one another. Iran could initiate problems in any number of means. Iran could stop all the oil tankers from entering or leaving through the Strait of Hormuz or block the Bab el Mandeb (see map below) blocking the only exit and entrance to the Suez Canal from the south.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Bab el Mandeb blockade would also negate the sole Israeli port in the south, Eilat, from access to the Indian Ocean and beyond. Preventing access to shipping lanes is considered an act of war. Well, that is, except if the nation in question is Israel. That aside, the most likely conflict will break out between the United States and Iran and not Iran and Israel. Should the conflict turn to being between Iran and Israel, the world (aka General Assembly) will immediately blame Israel with minimum opposition. This is the one item you can bet and rest assured of a win. The world’s ‘blame Israel’ reaction is the one constant in this rattled and violent world. Directing hatred towards Israel is the latest Judeophobia spreading around the world. We can only pray that the world awakens and removes their blinders and finally accepts that Israel has been reborn as predicted in Torah and related commentaries and this time, we are returning home and have little if any desire to leave. Hopefully, the world comes to grips with their unsupportable Judeophobia before it leads to another great war which will result in much of the world being destroyed and a death toll beyond any other war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 24, 2019

Abbas Making Threats and Promises

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 

Mahmoud Abbas is doing what he does best, threatening Israel and promising imminent elections. These are nothing new to those who spend even the slightest bit of attention to the ongoing war between the Arab Palestinians and Israel. We have lost count on the number of times that elections for the Palestinian Authority (PA) legislative parliament followed by elections for President. We do know how many elections have been held under the authority of the PA since 2005, none. That 2005 PA election was won predominantly by Hamas, just as Mahmoud Abbas, PA representatives and Israel had warned the American administration. It was Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President George W. Bush who insisted that the election be open for Hamas candidates claiming that such a terrorist entity as Hamas would never receive any number of votes from the Arab Palestinians as they desire peace with Israel, not the destruction of Israel. Well, apparently the Arab Palestinians supported Hamas in far greater numbers than the American experts predicted. There was to be a Presidential election after the parliamentary elections which was cancelled by Mahmoud Abbas as he understood he would lose the election and very possibly his life under a Hamas government. These were the same American officials who pushed the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in order to allow the Arab Palestinians to prove their ability for self-rule. This led directly to Hamas taking over Gaza in a bloody coup after which the same American administrators warned Israel against retaking Gaza, which is odd as retaking Gaza was their solution to all Israeli protestations against the policy moves being pressed by George W. Bush and Condoleezza Rice. There have been previous declarations of intent for elections made by Mahmoud Abbas with every one hitting what are often called obstructions and thus never come to fruition.

 

Abbas made another threat while addressing the United Nations where he warned that the PA will withdraw from all the agreements made with Israel. We can advise that this threat be ignored as it is impossible to break agreements which Abbas and the PA never observed in the first place. The promise to remove the destruction of Israel from the PA Charter is simply another lie reported by the New York Times as that clause remains. As is the usual response to Israeli actions which are well within international law, the Oslo Accords and the rules of conflict, the PA and Mahmoud Abbas immediately threaten Israel and demand the world jump onto their bandwagon against Israel and the Jews. We fully expect most of Europe and the European Union to back Abbas completely as usual. Much of Europe are marching in lockstep with the attempts to destroy the Jewish State. The closest that the PA came to altering and amending their charter was they voted once while President Clinton had observers monitoring their actions so they agreed to appoint a committee at their next meeting in order to rewrite the charter and bring it into compliance with the Oslo Accords. The committee was never formed nor was there ever any real intent to do so. They did enact changes to the charter making it even more difficult to make any changes in the future just in case a moment of weakness mixed with honesty ever took a grip on their leaders. There is one thing that Mahmoud Abbas and the PA can count upon, the New York Times will carry their water for them and report whatever they are told by the PA leadership and refute anything resembling reality which favors Israel.

 

Mahmoud Abbas to President Trump, “May your house be destroyed”

Mahmoud Abbas to President Trump, “May your house be destroyed”

 

There are a couple of things we can count upon in the upcoming future. First, there will be no elections for President and unlikely to be any for their parliament either. What will be the reason this time is anybody’s guess. Second, there will be no change in the animosity and terrorist attacks resulting from their “Pay to Slay” policy enacted by Mahmoud Abbas. Abbas has made crystal clear that if necessary, he would use every cent of funding to pay the terrorists even at the cost of not paying the government employees. That is just one of the items which too many governments, politicians and media elites ignore and refuse to report to the people instead laying all the blame for the problems in the Middle East on Israel. Further, the leaders in the world, both political and in the media, refuse to take the time to translate the speeches made by the PA leadership into English, French, German or any other language they understand. They act as if Arabic is some coded language beyond the ability to be comprehended. This is despite the many various NGO’s which translate much if not all the publications, speeches by PA officials and various news reports and videos. These include but are not limited to Palestinian Media Watch, Committee for Accuracy in Middle East Reporting in America and Middle East Media Research Institute. These and the other NGOs which translate much of the news reporting and political speeches from the entirety of the Middle East and stretching to Northern Africa and provide those who actually wish to know reality the actual truth of where and why the Middle East is as it is. But far too many western politicians and leaders, specifically those on the extreme right and left and a growing number of the left-wing are taking stances opposed to Israel. These are the same individuals who will be turning against the Christians and others who believe in a moral code and specifically who believe in our Creator, Hashem.

 

Many are perplexed by these leftists and their stand against religion and the belief in a Creator. The reason is simple, they desire the world returning to a less civil time with idolatry, abortion, and a two-tiered society with them at the top and the majority all but enslaved as were the serfs in Europe. They want to be rid of the narrow morality of the Bible, both Jewish and Christian, and want to replace the Bible with their ecocentrism and belief that the world would be a perfect place if only there were far fewer humans infecting the planet. Because of their desire to be free of the morality which spawned from Judaism and was the basis for Christianity, they will and have embraced everything which wishes to destroy the Judeo-Christian world. This is the basis for the left and Islam allying and why so many Islamists are being accepted as the new leaders of the left political spectrum. Their first hope is the elimination of Israel replacing it with another Islamist Arab state run by the terror masters of the PA, Hamas or Islamic Jihad. But, for now, let it be stated that they will never desire to know the truth, as the truth would not comport with their desires.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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