Beyond the Cusp

May 10, 2018

Was Iran the Threat Trump Claims?

 

United States President Trump pulled the Americans out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) while offering the Iranians to sit down and work out a more restrictive treaty (see video below), which President Trump assured them would benefit the world. The reality is that should a better treaty be hammered out which truly would prevent Iran from ever attaining nuclear weapons capability with an inspection regime, which assured their compliance, then this would make the world a far better place. The reality is that Iran will simply continue as they have been by doubling down on ignoring their agreements of the deal, refusing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) permission to inspect their military sites other than Fordow. That was simply the most glaring refusal of the Iranian regime.

 

 

When one adds the revelations made by Israel last week about the Iranian nuclear activities, divulging the treasure trove of records absconded with by Israeli intelligence agents (Mossad) over the period of a single night, President Trump had all the information he required to justify pulling out from the JCPOA. Still, we are amazed they could even move that many records within such a brief period of time without being challenged. The speech made by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu revealing the information (see video below) was interesting in that he was not addressing the Israeli people, for that he speaks Hebrew, and was not, as many declared, speaking to President Trump; he was speaking for the benefit of the American public. President Trump, his Cabinet Members who were interested and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had already been granted full access to the information for reason of verification that they were indeed exactly as claimed and for their being informed. Prime Minister Netanyahu was making the preparation for the action taken by President Trump by revealing the full extent of the Iranian breaching of the treaty including the initial requirements for validating the treaty, thus the treaty was in reality an empty shell from the beginning. With that established and made by a credible source, President Trump could make his announcement without facing rejections of his statements claiming that he did not have actual information on whether Iran was complying or ignoring their obligations. That simply caused those who claim that President Trump cannot walk without assistance, as he is that unstable, from claiming that he was bringing the world to the brink once again. That as it may, the die is cast and President Trump gave Iran the offer to make a new deal, which they will reject instead making much bluster while continuing with their nuclear research and weapons manufacture, and now it is just a matter of time until President Trump places a time limit on his patience over Iran requesting negotiations for a new treaty. This will be where things could become quite serious including the possibility of Iran testing an actual nuclear weapon and declaring themselves a nuclear-armed power.

 

 

As far as the threat level that Iran poses, President Trump underestimated their threat levels. Much of what the Iranians are threatening across the Middle East goes well beyond Hezballah, Hamas, Syria, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Israel and others within the MENA countries. Some of their threat stems from the Tri-Border Area (TBA) of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay (see image below), where criminal interests, terrorist training, and IRGC preparations for strikes within the Americas take place including the two attacks in Buenos Aires, the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA; Argentine Israelite Mutual Association) bombing and the bombing of the Israeli Embassy. Iran has made threats to destroy Israel as well as the United States. There have also been rising levels of threat to Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf States as well as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and beyond. These are the threats which President Trump referred.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

These threats are actually minimal compared to the entirety of the designs of the Ayatollahs. Their dreams and designs are a compilation of the desires of the Persian Empire to rule the known world, which has grown since their time, and the Shiite Islamic desire to spread Shia Islam to every person on Earth. This put in the most simple terms states that the Iranian leaders believe it will be their triumph in the end taking over the entirety of the Earth and converting every remaining person to Shia Islam. Their intent is to give people the choice of convert or die by beheading. They are serious about this just as they have been at enforcing their nightmarish rule over the people of Iran operating a torture operation at Evin Prison where those who protest the regime face if arrested. Despite these chilling possibilities, there have been large demonstrations against the Mullahs in 2009, which were brutally put down with numerous of the leaders simply disappearing. These demonstrations have been building once again. President Trump gave those who wish to replace their governance with something more attuned to the needs of the people and not so intent on military building and nuclear weapons development at the expense of the people and the national economy. President Trump stated that the people should be the first concern of their governance, not just an annoyance to be disregarded. This was a message that Washington D.C. will back their demonstrations this time should they decide to challenge the rule of the Mullahs. Should the Iranian people rise up, we can only hope the President is ready and willing to stand behind his encouraging words and not simply blowing smoke in their direction.

 

Iran, as dangerous as they likely currently are, could become far more of a world threat should they ever compile a nuclear weapons cache of thermos-nuclear weapons which are miniaturized making them useable as missile warheads with greater yields per unit size mountable on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) threatening the entirety of the globe from within hardened launch sites within Iran. Already it is suspected that Iranian ballistic missiles are capable of attaining four-thousand-kilometers with new plans reaching possibly over six-thousand-kilometers. Iran has also proven their ability at firing satellites into low-Earth orbit, which is the principle requirement for launching an EMP device that would be almost impossible to prevent should it reach deployment orbit and be set upon a reentry path. That aside, the weapon could be removed from orbit while it remains in its orbit by anti-satellite missiles which have been developed by Russia, China, Israel and the United States at a minimum. The Iranians went one-step further by placing a satellite in a trans-polar orbit where it crosses over the North Pole and South Pole. This also permits for an orbit which approaches the United States from a southerly direction over the Gulf of Mexico and through Texas to Louisiana passing over Kansas City and St Louis, the prime location for an EMP device to be deployed and approaching from the area where the anti-missile detection and interception capabilities are at their most limited. So, Iran is capable of orbiting satellites, firing continental ballistic missiles up to possibly five-thousand kilometers and is at the verge of producing solid fueled ICBMs and the thermonuclear warheads to place atop them, exactly how much more dangerous would make them an international concern? We would claim they already are an international concern of great weight.

 

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

Ranges of Iranian Missiles

 

The Iranians have been working on producing nuclear weapons since December 1984 when with the aid of China, Iran opened a nuclear research center in Isfahan. This was claimed to be for the peaceful use of nuclear power, a story we have heard before from every nation right before they test a nuclear device. The United States started from scratch with the Einstein letter in August of 1939 to plan for making a nuclear device and exploded a fully operational thermonuclear weapon at the start of November of 1952. That is from nothing to a thermonuclear device in less than fifteen years in complete secrecy. Iran was suspected of working towards nuclear weapons in late 1997 and this was stated with an earlier estimate in the 1990’s, probably in 1992. When one figures out that Iran had the advantage that in 1992 one could search the Internet for a design for a normal nuclear weapon giving them a head start towards weapons research, then the fifteen-year requirement should be considered even smaller. One can even find the basic design for a thermonuclear device on the Internet; so making such devices must be far less complicated in the current time with the available free information. So, we will stay with the fifteen-year period just to be fair. So, if we decide for the sake of fairness using 1995 as the start point for the Iranian nuclear research into weapons. That would mean that Iran should have been fully capable for the manufacture of thermonuclear warheads certainly by 2010. As the JCPOA was signed initially in November of 2013, three years after Iran should have already found a system for the production of a thermonuclear device, we can probably also assume that the JCPOA was signed closing the nuclear barn-house door well after the thermonuclear horses had escaped. Iran could have been building such weapons for three years before they entered an agreement which had little if any punitive measures and weak and limp investigatory abilities after which they could very easily have continued their manufacture of warheads. Assuming that Iranian physicists are competent and actually were working honestly on weapons development, the world should expect that Iran has at least fifty, if not several hundreds, of thermonuclear warheads sitting currently in the ground in hardened silos atop missiles capable of striking virtually anywhere in Europe and across the entirety of the MENA states. Add into the formula their capability to place a satellite capable of carrying a small thermonuclear device into polar low Earth orbit, Iran already could deliver a devastating device anywhere on the planet. But that is not the end of the threat.

 

Iran is known to have also researched EMP weapons, particularly it is suspected they have developed those with nuclear and thermonuclear devices as their trigger systems. These EMP devices could be capable of setting off a continent wide EMP pulse if detonated between thirty and three-hundred miles. It could effect anywhere from a closed area to a near open area including all of the United States (see image below). The outlines of the range of a strong device detonated at three-hundred miles altitude are purely frightening. Imagine turning off the electricity for up to as much as a decade across North America or Europe or almost fifteen-hundred mile radius effect anywhere on the globe. This is a threat that Iran may have already produced weapons with such capability as any nuclear device can be modified such that it has a stronger EMP pulse effect and a lower yield. This means if they choose less of an explosive shock, that they can maximize the EMP effects of their weapon crippling any nation which has not fortified their electrical distribution grids. The really scary item is that very few, if any, nations have bothered to spend the necessary funds to fortify their grids to protect them from an EMP device. This is despite this effect being known since the middle of the 1950’s.

 

The United States carried out a test of the EMP effect with a test in the early 1960’s finding that a moderate strength device exploded over the Pacific Ocean at an altitude of two-hundred-fifty miles and found the device affected electrical distribution in Hawaii approximately nine-hundred miles distant. This was beyond their expected range and this was a weapon not specifically set to maximize the EMP effect. The EMP Pulse has multiple ranges of effect which cause electrical devices an entire series of stresses which maximizes the numbers and types of electronic devices and how they are potentially destroyed. The more nations allow their electrical grids to remain susceptible to the adverse effects of EMP pulse attacks, the more expensive it becomes to protect their systems in the future. The advantage of hardening electrical grids as early as possible is that once they have been hardened, keeping the entirety of the grid hardened as time continues and the system grows, is that such hardening can be included in building regulations thus all upgrades and additions to the systems will retain the advantages made by the hardening of their electrical grids. The United States figured that it would have been implemented in three-to-five years at a cost of ten-to-twenty billion dollars back in 2008. This would have included hardening the entirety of the system. Even after this has been performed, devices plugged into the system could still be susceptible and should the Congress pass new standards today which required all future electronic devices which will be powered by the electrical grid to be made less susceptible to EMP pulses, it would need to give industry around three years in order for new power supplies to be designed and all the old power supplied to be sold or upgraded, perhaps a decade later devices would be made EMP immune. Even if they were only required to only build power supplies to be fifty percent less susceptible, within a decade almost all moderate quality devices would be near hundred percent protected simply because the public would demand such protection once EMP was raised by such that it became something sellers could use in their commercials in order to claim their protection was superior than their competitor. If you want proof, look at the many food cereals which claim to be healthy and their specific amounts of the different kinds of fats, triglycerides, omega-3 fatty acids, calories and you name what else, but they will each claim they have the magic combination which researchers claim will make the healthy eater drool.

 

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

EMP area by bursts at 30, 120 and 300 miles

 

Seatbelts were originally an option on vehicles and the commercials showed the great advantages to wearing them. Within a few years, virtually every car had seatbelts standard and then soon after the Congress made them mandatory. Then came the tree-point seatbelts and they were standard even in the sub-compacts and then Congress made them mandatory. Air quality and water quality has been cleaned up well beyond what the laws written half a decade later required by industry simply due to the pressure the people placed on cleaning up the environment and industry responded and there were even commercials which stated the advances the production of some products were using at their factories to reduce pollution. The upper limits on people-power on manufacturers are near beyond the ability for us to measure. You probably would like us to prove this point, and so we will. Back on April 23, 1985, the Coca-Cola Company decided to release their great new idea, “New Coke,” and it ended up being less exciting than hoped. The BIG problem was that they discontinued their old formula and discarded it once and for all betting the company on their new product. All their testing had proven this product to outperform Pepsi with Pepsi drinkers. There was a small problem with their research, they forgot to test Coke drinkers. As it turns out, Coke drinkers were quite pleased with the standard Coke product and were quite distressed when this new more Pepsi-ish formula replaced it. Well, within a rather short period, on July 11, 1985, seventy-eight days after New Coke’s introduction, Classic Coke was announced. It was the old formula making its return after a short hiatus. That is what the power of the people demanding their preference can do.

 

Congress will claim that their regulations have done so much to improve our lives, the reality is the people demanding companies meet their expectations has done so much and Congress, late as usual, has jumped on the bandwagon after the companies have already circled the wagons and put their ducks in a row meeting the people’s demands. The politicians have to have their talking points, and that is all they usually are and they are depending on the people not realizing that it was their power that got the changes and Congress just jumped in at the end and is attempting to steal all the credit. Yes, they are a bunch of over-pious, overly-righteous, self-promoting egomaniacs who believe that the people really are that easily fooled. We wish they were not so close to reality on that assumption and being informed is what makes people less susceptible to the politicians stroking them just to get their vote and then serve the moneyed interests who paid for the town hall meeting and barbeque that gained them the votes. When the people demand that their electrical providers harden their service system, that is when it will be performed. Once the entirety of the nations is hardened, then Congress will require it and put aside tons of money presumably to harden the electrical grid. The money will be given to the surviving providers to repay them for what the people forced them into action and performing. Congress, always is there with the money, just after the fact more often than not.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 15, 2017

Could United States Forces Prevent North Korean Attack?

 

Lieutenant General (ret.) Jan-Marc Jouas wrote in a leaked letter to members of the US Congress, US troops “are vastly outnumbered by North Korean forces, as well as (South Korean) forces that will conduct the overwhelming majority of the fighting.” General Jouas adds, “Unlike every conflict since the last Korean War, we will not be able to build up our forces prior to the start of hostilities.” May we add that in our opinion, the general is a flaming optimist. There is anywhere, depending on the assessed threat levels, between thirty-five thousand and fifty thousand United States Army forces on the line at any given time backed up by what is considered a significant number of South Korean forces. They are backed up by air power and artillery stationed in South Korea as well as air-power from Guam, the Philippines, Hawaii, Japan and the naval forces from United States Seventh Fleet (Seventh Fleet Battle Group pictured below).

 

United States Seventh Fleet Battle Group

United States Seventh Fleet Battle Group

 

The following is our own assessment of the situation for the United States forces stationed in South Korea and their civilian employees and the rest of the population of South Korea. They are all toast should North Korea decide to initiate a war. The initial threat would be the launching of rockets and firing of artillery which might include chemical weapon rounds and would lay waste to much of the northern sections of Seoul. The initial firings and launchings could be utilized to a devastating effect on the entire length of the DMZ emplacements which defend South Korea and are often referred to as the first line of defense. The name we gave these soldiers was the trip wire which would notify command that everything they prayed would never happen, was in fact happening. These troops were never designed to prevent North Korean troops from invading South Korea, they were placed there such that the United States would have an excuse to reengage in the actual longest running war in which the United States has ever been engaged. The Korean War never ended, it only was suspended with the signing of an armistice which is merely a cease-fire. Every time even a single bullet crosses the DMZ, even an accidental discharge, the armistice is technically broken and the other side could reengage in hostilities while blaming the other side for actually initiating the renewed war. Other than the troops “guarding” the DMZ, the population of Seoul would be the other major group of victims as North Korea has made everything clear that they would intentionally target all of Seoul murdering civilians. This is their intentions despite North Korea being a signatory to the Geneva Convention Protocols.

 

Known North Korea Artillery Sites with Range of Fire

Known North Korea Artillery Sites with Range of Fire

 

In the end, the resulting carnage would be something the Korean Peninsula would find recoverable but requiring decades if not centuries. North Korea would likely face destruction on a scale previously thought unimaginable should this occur while President Trump is in office as it is doubtful Secretary of Defense James Mattis, a retired Marine four star General as well as Commander of United States Central Command, Commander of the United States Joint Forces Command, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation and whose dress blues are decorated with an impressive amount of salad, would even wait for President Trump to order an attack before readying all the forces which could conceivably engage North Korea to prepare to act immediately when given the go command. He did not earn the nickname “Mad Dog” for a passive demeanor, so one would expect him to be ready for any threat. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson may try to be a voice of reasoned response and advise caution, which we would not be surprised to hear, but between Secretary of Defense James Mattis, White House Chief of Staff and John F. Kelly, also a four star Marine General, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Joseph F. Dunford, another four star Marine General and active as well, and if three retired Marine Four Star Generals were not sufficient to convince President Trump to overreact immediately, there would likely be one more voice demanding action, United States Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. One might almost feel sorry for Secretary of State Rex Tillerson trying to make himself heard as the voice of reason calling for some degree of hesitation to try to end the confrontation without resorting to escalating the situation. Then again, we are prejudging that Secretary of State Tillerson would not also be in favor of making South Korea into an island off the coast of China.

 

The truth is that should Kim Jong Un actually desire uniting the Korean Peninsula knowing that the United States is tied by treaty and United Nations edict to come to the defense of South Korea should they be attacked by North Korea, Kim Jong Un would be more likely to act first on his threats against the United States as well as President Trump. This could be accomplished in any of a number of means. The most obvious is the expected firing of ICBMs at the major cities of the United States. There has been discussion of the southern vulnerability to orbital missile attack which the United States faces. This exists as the United States defenses were all designed in addressing an attack from the Soviet Union. North Korea is a new threat and was given access to the Soviet Union southern attack plans which they developed back in the 1980’s in order to address a means of avoiding the United States defenses. North Korea has already launched satellites which would have been capable of using just such an approach in the past. But this attack plan has given way to something more realistic, so keep reading.

 

North Korea has tested six nuclear weapons in the recent past. The last two were reportedly thermonuclear weapons, in the vernacular, hydrogen bombs. Most of their weapons have had much lower yields than what most expected such weapons to produce. There is but one rational explanation for this result. These weapons are intended for a specific purpose, to produce the maximum EMP which, for reasons which nuclear expert scientists can ably explain, are a special orientation which while producing the maximum EMP yield and also a rather dirty bomb with high but very short lived radiation, produce lower than expected explosive yields. In other words, they give less pop but more pizzazz than the normative thermonuclear device of old which was designed to destroy a city. These devices are called Super EMP devices which are the result of a concerted effort between the Soviet Union and China and provided to North Korea by their ever-caring provider, China. Yes, the same China which now claims to have lost their leash and declared Kim Jong Un to be outside their control. Of course that is simply only partly true as China and her trade and support financially of North Korea is responsible for most of the economy.

 

The threat such a weapon poses were it to be exploded high in the atmosphere over the central United States is potentially devastating. Such a detonation could conceivably destroy the majority of the North American electrical grid plunging all but the east and west coasts into blackout as the transformers would be overloaded and rendered inoperable. Estimates are that it could take as long as a decade to completely repair the damage. The worse case scenario would have well over three-quarters of the population of the United States perishing in the first year alone and also rendering the United States vulnerable to invasion. There would also be problems for central Canada though northern Canada and her coasts would be unaffected. The dire consequences of such an EMP device is well defined by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry as well as debunking the detractors who claim otherwise. Needless to point out, the United States vulnerability to such a devastating attack should be of far more importance than it has received to date. As pointed out by Dr. Peter Vincent Pry, “For 17 years the EMP Commission warned, in the words of the 2004 EMP Commission Executive Report: “The current vulnerability of U.S. critical infrastructures can both invite and reward attack if not corrected; however, correction is feasible and well within the Nation’s means and resources to accomplish.”

 

The truth is that the Congress and President were first briefed by the military upon their surprise discovery of the dangers of EMP after their own nuclear tests having knocked out electrical devices at a distant base after a nuclear above ground test in the Pacific theater. This was back in the 1950’s when adapting the electrical grid would have been far simpler and almost inexpensive by even the standards of the day. The electronic grid could be modernized and protected from an EMP device and implemented in 3-5 years at a cost of $10-20 billion. The complication is that every year the price will rise and the time required would also grow. Such an upgrade could include other upgrades making the grid intelligent which would lead to lower maintenance costs as well as numerous other advantages. But as nobody in Congress can place their name on an upgrade, the funding will go into items which often are unnecessary but are new constructions which Senators or Representatives can place their name on a sign taking credit. When someone becomes the first to place a sign taking credit for an upgrade, such as this resurfacing brought to you care of Senator Blah, perhaps upgrading on substations could begin. Until such a time or when the people find out the truth of the EMP vulnerability of the United States and entire North American electrical grids, then perhaps the required and necessary upgrades will be considered. What would it take to get these upgrades done, probably a miracle from Heaven. Still, the North Korean madman, Kim Jong Un, is most likely to attack the United States before attempting to unify the Korean Peninsula and such an attack would take the form of an EMP attack. As far as the United States preventing such an attack, that might take a miracle where just the right balance between bluster and pressure on China to pressure North Korea. There will always be those claiming that pressure should come from the United Nations Security Council sanctions where approximately seven sets of sanctions passed already have had absolutely minimal effect. This could be something which can be done with no desired result just to say it was tried, but some point of strength and threat need be put in place always leaving that small amount of doubt in Kim Jong Un’s mind just to keep him balanced, unbalanced is his normal condition.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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