Beyond the Cusp

October 13, 2013

Why Obama Will Continue to Ignore Alarms by Netanyahu

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There are a number of reasons working together, any one of which is sufficient to turn President Obama’s hearing off when Netanyahu gives any warnings about the Middle East or even the greater world. The major impetus behind the wall President Obama has placed to block Netanyahu out derives from the belief in President Obama’s mind that he knows more about what is happening in the Middle East and who can be trusted and which leaders he needs to woo and that his being raised in Indonesia gives him experiences and an innate knowledge which he believes will prove him correct in the end. Part of this insider knowledge that President Obama relies on is his familiarity with Islamic beliefs and society of Indonesia of his youth. No matter how many experts make claims that the form of Islam practiced in Indonesia at the time that President Obama resided there was completely different than the forms of Islam being practiced today in the Middle East and North Africa as well as the Islamist Madrassas around the Western World, President Obama is determined to prove that he knows best. President Obama’s pridefulness and inability to admit to his own mistakes, especially in matters concerning the Middle East and the Islamic World make for a combination where changing his perceptions on such subjects is simply impossible. The best examples of the President’s inability to adapt or incorporate new information if it does not fit his carefully crafted view of how he believes things to be can be found in Egypt and Turkey as well as the obvious, Israel.


In Egypt President Obama still holds to the policy which dictates that the Muslim Brotherhood is, as then Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said at a House Intelligence Committee hearing, “The Muslim Brotherhood is a very heterogeneous group, largely secular.” Group that “has eschewed violence and has decried Al Qaeda as a perversion of Islam” and “have pursued social ends, a betterment of the political order in Egypt.” He added that the Muslim Brotherhood, which has branches in many Muslim countries, has “no overarching agenda, particularly in pursuit of violence, at least internationally.” President Obama also believes that the Freedom and Justice Party’s President Morsi won the first elections after the removal of former strong man and American longtime ally President Mubarak in a totally free election in which there were no improprieties despite evidence to the contrary and that the fact that the Muslim Brotherhood was the most organized and the only group in a position to organize and conduct a coherent campaign and thus guaranteed to win the election. President Obama has also chosen to ignore the fact that Egyptian people in the tens of millions protested, signed petitions and carried out the most massive popular revolution calling for the removal of President Morsi. The protests to remove President Morsi were actually larger and more invigorated than those a little over a year earlier which dethroned Mubarak. President Obama prefers to believe and act as if the Egyptian Military acted solely on their own without any mandate from the people and has even gone so far as to blame all of the violence on the Egyptian Military totally absolving the Muslim Brotherhood of any guilt. Any casual observer of the violence being perpetrated against the Egyptian people, especially the Coptic Christians and any non-Sunni Muslims would easily see the evidence that the Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda are behind much of the violence evidenced by the black flag and the Muslim Brotherhood banner being carried by the gangs violently attacking the people and intentionally attempting to destroy Egypt if they are not returned to power.


Then there is Turkey and President Obama’s declared bestest friend in the Middle East, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. As we noted close to a decade ago and has been commented upon by numerous Middle Eastern experts, Prime Minister Erdogan has been slowly but surely moving the Turkish governance from a secular governance into a Sharia governance. Prime Minister Erdogan had warned Egyptian President Morsi very early in his time in office that he should emulate the example that Prime Minister Erdogan had used in Turkey of small increments and taking one’s time and not rushing or pushing the people too quickly so that they did not revolt to the sudden changes and the potentially unpopular proponents of Sharia. Morsi did not listen and if the violent protests which have gripped Turkey of late are any evidence, even taking the slow but steady change from secular to Sharia did not prove successful either. Add to this that the reaction from the Turkish government was just announced by the Justice and Interior ministries that people can now be jailed if they think about protesting against the government. Meanwhile, as the Egyptian Military is backing the temporary government by destroying the majority of smuggling tunnels from the Sinai into the Hamas stronghold of Gaza in order to prevent Hamas, an arm of the Muslim Brotherhood formed to attack Israel, from smuggling terrorists back into the Sinai to attack Egyptian villages and military outposts, Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan has invited and met for the third time this past year Hamas chief Khaled Mashaal. Of course this does not appear to cause President Obama any concern as he just announced a $200 million program under which Turkey and Qatar will develop materials aimed at promoting the Muslim Brotherhood’s Islamist agenda while cutting off military aid to Egypt until they reinstate Muslim Brotherhood representative Morsi to the Presidency. Also, do not expect any apology any time in the foreseeable future to come from President Obama to Prime Minister Netanyahu for forcing him to apologize to Prime Minister Erdogan over the actions on the blockade runner Mavi Marmara where nine terrorists died after they posed a fatal threat as they attacked Israeli Special Forces who boarded the ship to enforce the blockade with paintball guns loaded with pepper-balls and were attacked with knives, steel rods, and other small arms. The closest that Turkey has come to making any return gesture to Israel has been complete and rudely given refusals to accept the apology and the obvious warming gestures with Hamas which may soon result with Hamas moving their headquarters from Qatar to Turkey.


Further proof of President Obama’s affections for the Muslim Brotherhood has been obvious in Syria where the only thing preventing full United States support of the Rebel forces has been the warnings and threats from Russia and China. The only times that President Obama has taken steps which may have proven advantageous for Syrian dictator President Bashir al-Assad has been the leaking of information proving the suspicions that Israel had been behind attacks that prevented the transfer of chemical weapons, advanced anti-air and anti-ship missiles presumably supplied by Russia, and other advanced weapons systems or game changing weapons that provided significant upgrades to Hezballah’s abilities. The sole threat of American intervention came in a threat to Syrian President al-Assad primarily when President Obama said, “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.” This brought about the now infamous backpedaling and stalling until Russian President Putin supplied President Obama a get untangled from your tongue alternative which he, of course, took immediately. Of course, many have pointed out that Syria is a no win proposition and what would probably serve the future best would be a prolonged conflict where the civilians who remain were permitted to leave or be provided safe-zones and eventually have, strangely enough, President al-Assad remain in power even if he ruled a small area while the rest of Syria was divided between the Kurds and the other forces. The one result we would like to have from all the turmoil and violence, especially in Syria and Iraq, would be a Kurdish state combining the Kurdish controlled areas in northern Iraq and north-east Syria, but that may simply be a dream as the Kurds have historically been treated poorly and denied their promised homeland simply because J. P. Getty wanted the central Iraqi oil fields which was within the areas promised the Kurds after World War I, and one thing anybody familiar with the broken promises to the Jews after World War I knows is just how unfairly the British were with the Kurds.


The final country which President Obama has taken as far back a seat as possible allowing even the Europeans to show definitively more leadership than he, is Iran. Yes, after years of wrestling with the Europeans President Obama has been dragged to a point where the sanctions on Iran are having their intended effect. The Iranians, masters in chess and the art of deception, have played their hand masterly with their choice of Hasan Rouhani as their new President and face before the world. He contrasts with former President Ahmadinejad nearly perfectly and has been hailed by an overanxious West as the revelation of a new and open Iran. He has been hailed as approachable and having shown an honest intention to make changes and reveal the entirety of the Iranian nuclear program with an honesty that will be unquestionable. This is all well and good except that it is a complete and total fabrication. President Hasan Rouhani was formerly the lead negotiator for the Iranians in their nuclear talks and as such he glad-handed and smiled his way adroitly avoiding revealing anything about the Iranian nuclear program as he also oversaw the installation of thousands of centrifuges. He was proven to be a masterful deceiver who was well spoken and had a full understanding of the West and the weaknesses of each person with whom he would need to deal. Adding to this is the fact that absolutely nothing has changed in the actual power structure in Iran. They have the same Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who is the real power and very likely the person most responsible for Hasan Rouhani’s election. The twelve on the Council of Guardians, six of whom are appointed by the Supreme Leader, have not changed and were responsible for choosing who would be permitted on the ballot in the elections. Since virtually all of the real power rests with the Council of Guardians and the Supreme Leader, nothing in Iran has changed except they have a new puppet to place on the world stage and apparently that is sufficient for a Western World who wish to find any reason to avoid having to face the facts that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons and is very likely to either use them or threaten their use in order to have a nuclear umbrella that guards their terrorist attacks across the globe. President Obama sees in Iran his chance to receive another Nobel Peace Prize and honestly believes his oratory abilities will sway the Iranians from their pursuit of nuclear weapons. The only times that President Obama might decide to take any real actions against Iran would be in order to force concessions from Prime Minister Netanyahu to the Palestinian. Even then his promise will more likely be broken and in the end if the negotiations do not produce the result he envisions as equitable and fair final peace treaty, which is the complete capitulation by Israel of all lands and every one of the Palestinian demands even including some form of Right of Return for millions of Palestinian refugees, President Obama is considering forcing a peace of his liking on the Israelis even if it requires a Chapter VII Security Council Resolution granting the Palestinians the entire enchilada with the threat of military enforcement by the nations willing to enforce the United Nation edict. President Obama is going to be the first man in history to win the Nobel Peace Prize before he did anything to earn it and then his efforts to prove he deserved it resulting in starting World War III. What a legacy.


Beyond the Cusp


March 19, 2013

Rumor Obama Will Demand Timetable for Israeli Withdrawal West Bank Looking Credible

Almost two weeks ago a rumor surfaced claiming that there were reports that President Obama would be demanding that Prime Minister Netanyahu provide a timetable for the withdrawal of every Jewish resident from the area beyond the Green Line in Judea, Samaria, and Jerusalem including all of the Old City which contains numerous Jewish restored neighborhoods and near countless Jewish Holy Sites and historic synagogues. The release of this information which was attributed to the World Tribune Newspaper was immediately downplayed, squelched and denied by Administration spokespeople. We had let this information drop at the time possibly in the hopes that there really was no validity behind this rumor. Now things are not looking so bright and the credibility of this rumor has gained ground with a news report from the United Nations. Reacting to a team appointed by the United Nations Human Rights Council which just presented its conclusions Monday in a report to diplomats in the agency’s Geneva headquarters, there has been a demand in the name of the United Nations demanding that Israel begin to withdraw its citizens from Judea and Samaria. The timing of the release of this report which includes the demand of this cleansing lands of its Jewish residents presumably in preparation to presenting it for the formation of a Palestinian State a mere two days before President Obama makes his historic trip to Israel definitely pumps new life into the previously refuted rumor that demands will be placed on Israeli leaders to provide a detailed schedule for the removal of the Jewish citizens beyond the Green Line. This is an ominous and frightening convergence of semi-aligned circumstances with the United Nations Human Rights Council releasing a report and in the name of the United Nations demanding Israel establish a schedule for the withdrawal of all Israelis, or at least the Jewish Israelis, from Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as well as East Jerusalem including the entirety of the Old City immediately before United States President Obama is scheduled to make his first trip to Israel as President while his newly appointed Secretary of State, John Kerry, has been quoted after being sworn into his new position that he has a plan that could jumpstart the Israel/Palestinian peace process and lead to a rapid and permanent solution. When adding in the reported insider claim that President Obama was to demand the exact same schedule of removal of all Jewish residents beyond the Green Line in Samaria, Judea and most of Jerusalem you have a convergence which is difficult to ignore and frightening in its scope and content.


There is little doubt as to how Prime Minister Netanyahu should respond to such a request, or do we call it what it will become, a demand. He must simply refuse to consider any such plan and refuse to give the withdrawal even the dignity of discussion. This may be exactly what is expected since there has been a change in the schedule for President Obama on his trip visiting Israeli leaders, Palestinians leaders and then the King of Jordan. Originally President Obama was to meet upon his arrival with Prime Minister Netanyahu then later meet with Palestinian President Abbas and towards the end of his trip meet with the Jordanian King. Within the last forty-eight hours President Obama has scheduled two additional meetings with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to take place after his meeting with Palestinian President Abbas. If I were pressed to venture a guess why these additional two meetings were added to the President’s itinerary, I have an inkling that President Obama will make a promise to President Abbas that providing Abbas sign an agreement to end incitement, recognize Israel’s right to exist and agree to be open to the idea of forgoing the ‘Right of Return’ to inside Israel and to accept the refugees to resettle in the Palestinian state then President Obama will promise to force Prime Minister Netanyahu to remove all of the Jewish residents on any lands beyond the pre 1967 War lines and surrender every inch of these lands to the establishment of the Palestinian state. The two extra meetings are scheduled so that at the first meeting President Obama can take a charm offensive to persuade Netanyahu into accepting the peace being offered and the second meeting to make Netanyahu an offer he would be wise in not refusing or else no stopping Iran from reaching nuclear weapons capability and even a threat of shooting down any Israeli attempt to strike the Iranian nuclear sites, an end to all United States aid both military and all other aid, even possibly the threat of a complete arms embargo including spare parts for aircraft and all munitions and who knows what else. The two additional meetings and the demands by the United Nations Human Rights Council there are not all that many implications such a combinations of events could foreshadow other than the final power-play forcing a peace upon both the Palestinian and the Israelis even if it kills both parties.


There will be some who will put forth the claim that President Obama will be unable to convince President Abbas to make peace, and I would have been one of them except for the introduction of the United Nations calling for the schedule just in time for the American President’s trip. It is possible that President Abbas might fold and accept making the promises as he has done similarly in the past only to renege when everything came to the crucial point where the only thing necessary was the signing of an agreement at which point Abbas, just as Arafat had done, walked away refusing to sign and spitting out new and more extreme demands. If, as I fear may be the case, President Obama has organized across the board support for this one last gasp push where everything and anything will be used to force an agreement, then here is what President Obama might be about to do in order to force a peace on both parties. He can face President Abbas with the threat that not only will the United States aid to the PLO, Fatah and Palestinian Authority be cut off but so will all aid from the European Union and its member states as well as the end of numerous NGOs support. Then it may be possible to get Abbas to sign intents or even an actual preliminary peace agreement using the threat of a complete financial collapse of the Palestinians against a promise that President Obama can guarantee that Israel will be made to return every square millimeter of the so-called Occupied Lands for the formation of the Palestinian State. President Obama can then return to meet Prime Minister Netanyahu to apply honey first and the fire and brimstone should honey fail in attaining the desired results. The only part of this that will matter is whether or not Obama can force a concession from Netanyahu that Israel will present a schedule for the removal of all Jews from beyond the Green Line that the World will implement all measures necessary to hold Israel to their obligation even should the Palestinians renege on their promises. We have seen this consequence almost countless times previously where Israel is held to commit to her promises while the Palestinians are never held accountable to their promises. This time Israel will be forced into an untenable position which will leave her with virtually undefendable borders totally lacking any strategic depth which is in complete violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 242. Things may be about to go from bad to worse, possibly worst, making for a very uncertain near future.


Beyond the Cusp


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