Beyond the Cusp

May 8, 2014

Would Loss of American Unquestioned Support Destroy Israel?

Periodically the almost automated support given to Israel without any real debate or question does come into review with some of the same expected sources challenging the basis for this aid. There are also the parallel claims of Israeli misdeeds, misallocation and other evil intents which Israel often uses American aid monies to facilitate. These claims often depict the use by Israel of American military aid in their struggles to abate, intercede and react to terrorism which often takes the form of limited military strikes on terror targets in Gaza as well as Samaria and Judea. The Israeli use of American military hardware such as Apache Attack Helicopters or F-16 aircraft usually top the list of complaints as they are the most readily applicable force extender. So, how devastated would the Israeli Defense Forces and Israeli society in general suffer should such aid actually be pulled by some future President or Congress due to any reasons from changing alliances to spending cuts or any other motivations. Surprisingly, under many such scenarios Israel might actually find themselves in a better position than the present status-quo. Yes, that’s what we said, better off.


First off, should the United States curtail most of its aid from Israel while continuing to provide the levels of aid, especially military aid, to Israel’s Arab neighbors would create a dangerous situation. This would not be as devastating as might first appear as currently, especially under the Bush and Obama Administrations the aid to Israel’s Arab neighbors has, when considered in total has significantly exceeded the aid received by Israel. Recently there were military aid packages which provided Saudi Arabia with a number of F16 fighters which brought them almost on par with the numbers of fighter aircraft as Israel would be capable of fielding. Another example was the supplying to Egypt of Apache Attack Helicopters in numbers approaching the numbers of Israeli attack helicopters. When considered including the Russian aid to Syria and Egypt where the Russians have claimed their intent is to provide each of Israel’s neighboring nations with military hardware comparable to the Israel military giving each parity with the IDF results in putting Israel at a distinct disadvantage should her neighbors combine their forces and coordinate an attack. Of course there will be those who, completely blind to historical examples will contend that such a possibility would be unthinkable considering the splintering of the Arab nations over the recent past. Anybody with an ounce of reasoning and devoid of any anti-Israeli bias would immediately see that the one unifying item which would overcome any and all differences and animosities of the Arab nations would be a plan and call for a complete and total war to eliminate the Zionist entity. Even previous United States military experts always explained and supported military support in the Middle East to heavily favor Israel due to the fact that Israel would most likely face attacks by all of her neighbors and not just each as a single entity, just as the previous wars since 1948 through the present proves.


So, wouldn’t Israel face an even more unbalanced and challenging situation should the United States take a position where they cut significantly their foreign aid packages, especially their military aid packages. The truth is as long as such cuts were universal and across the boards and not specifically aimed at Israel; such a situation might actually work to Israel’s advantage. Given that most of the recent arming of Israel by the United States has been offset by a similar package for Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser measure Turkey, Lebanon, and possibly Iraq ends up making the forces which could potentially ally in an attack on Israel far more equipped numerically than Israel. This is ontop of and above the fact that Israeli dependence which has resulted from the United States offers from back in the early 1970s has left Israel basically dependent on the United States as Israel has not put any significant efforts into development of advanced fighter and other aircraft since that time. One might ask how and why did Israel end up in this less than enviable position. The answer revolves around the Lavi fighter jet. The Lavi was the Israeli equivalent, for lack of other comparison, to the F-16 as a single engine fighter jet and would have been poised as a challenge to American sales of F-16 aircraft in international sales. The United States offered the Israelis a deal which included not only F-16 fighters which would cover the main abilities of the Lavi and also F-15 fighter bombers which added extra capabilities to the IAF and promised to maintain such a military and tactical advantage over her neighbors in air superiority. Now Israel is no longer in a position to produce their own fighter aircraft as they are decades behind in practical experience as they have relied completely on the United States. Should Israel be forced to produce future aircraft in-country, there would be a lagging in the development of cutting edge aircraft on a level comparable to the promised F-35 fifth generation fighter Israel is currently scheduled to receive. This in no way implies that the Israelis would find themselves in an unenviable position and overmatched by the aircraft capabilities of her neighbors who would either continue receiving American aircraft or Russian aircraft. After an initial lagging period and as soon as Israel developed their fifth generation fighters and other aircraft and completed building the necessary infrastructure to produce these assets without dependence on other nations, then Israel would no longer be dependent on the United States, something which is proving to possibly become problematic.


There are numerous reasons that Israel would initially experience some serious difficulties and challenges to overcome but nothing that dedication and a sizeable but likely affordable and advantageous investment of engineering and manufacturing which would also provide Israel with a future market on the international arms market where Israel could give favor to those nations which support her instead of being dependent on any one provider for the tools necessary for her defense. Israeli development of an aircraft production manufacturing could also provide El Al a new, less expensive and domestic supplier of passenger aircraft which would also place Israel in a market that currently she is a purchaser and not a supplier. This would also give El Al a venue where they could request aircraft developed and built to their specifications and included the defensive abilities which currently have to be added to any passenger airlines bought by El Al. Having a manufacturer who would build these capabilities into the aircraft would necessarily also provide cost savings and also secrecy which in such areas is invaluable. Israel actually would be well served to move towards becoming self-dependent such that she is not reliant on any foreign entity for those items which are vital to the protection and further development necessary to provide protection and comfort of her people. Becoming self-sufficient would also be a necessary step towards freeing Israel from outside influences and vulnerability to demands from a provider of vital needs or funds. As Israel has become a leading nation in software and related technologies and had a healthy economic future, especially if their attention to cutting their deficits proves successful, that should allow for internal development for all items including military hardware as the current threats existing in the world could lead to a situation where Israel no longer would have willing partners who would provide those items necessary for her self-defense and abilities to intercede and intercept terrorist threats. With Iran poised to become a nuclear armed nation, providing they are not already so armed, the possibility of Iran forcing other nations to place a military embargo on Israel and deny her any military or possibly all aid will become something which needs to be incorporated in Israeli plans for the future.


The admonitions and adversarial statements by United States Secretary of State John Kerry and Special Envoy Martin Indyk placing all their blames and venoms onto Israel over the failure of the most recent negotiations could be a harbinger of troubling times. The facts are that many were capable of predicting not only the failure of the peace efforts but also give the steps, or likely the frameworks if not the actual steps, which the Palestinians would utilize to, as they defined their actions and intentions themselves, “blow up the peace talks.” Add to these items the insults and proclamations made by President Obama directed against Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and other Israeli politicians and statesmen as well as placing unreasonable demands and misplaced blame on Israel while demanding concession and surrenders by Israel beyond reason have all given an indication that perhaps American aid might not be as dependable in the future as Israel has depended upon in the past. The changing attitudes on College campi is another indicator of what the future may hold as it is from the students who are today holding mock checkpoints, building Apartheid walls, and acting out skits denigrating IDF actions to protect Israeli citizens from potential terrorist actions are the leaders of the world within the next few decades. The proof of this is on display as the students of the anti-war and other movements from the 1960s and early 1970s are the current leaders in the world and particularly in the United States and today’s students will climb into the positions of power in the near future. Looking at the university environment during Israel Apartheid Week and the activities which have spread across numerous colleges and will likely continue to spread give a likely accurate picture of the composition of the board rooms, parliaments, congresses, professors, media, and other positions of power and influence within the next quarter century. The picture this paints should be taken as the warning as well as the threat it really poses and should such a future come to fruition, Israel will be facing much worse than simply the refusal of the United States to continue to sell them fighter aircraft or other military supplies, Israel may find herself completely alone in the world and facing the Armageddon predicted in religious liturgies. Amazingly, the prediction of such a scenario coming in the future does not set me on edge or fill me with fears as I just have a feeling, call it a faith, that Israel will persevere and prove triumphant in the end no matter how extensive the threat or how dire the situations and I have no doubts in this conviction.


Beyond the Cusp


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