Iran on the Offensive

 

The world thinks nothing about the fact that the United States has at least one naval fleet in every ocean and in some cases there are two. For example, there have been as many as three carrier groups stationed in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean for months at a time, usually two carrier groups in the Pacific Ocean, and two carrier groups covering the Atlantic Ocean with one in the North Atlantic and another usually in the western Mediterranean Sea. Usually the United States fields six carrier groups at any one time with one more in reserve and another being overhauled. These are the huge floating city aircraft carriers with their entire flotilla of escorting vessels. There was the period where President Trump decided to give a small show of force to North Koreas’ Kim Jong-Un with three carrier groups parked off his coast in the Sea of Japan (see image below). Such a group of ships with their compliment of escorting vessels will tend to get one’s attention as a single such carrier could decimate a nation as small as North Korea. They should have had a similar effect when parked in the Persian Gulf off the coast of Iran. The problem is they had little if any effect on the rulers of Iran, and their latest announcement could be seen as their response, a response that took around two years or more to come to fruition. Iran recently announced their intentions to send warships into the North Atlantic Ocean, very likely close to the United States eastern seaboard. This should prove to be very interesting.

 

Three United States Aircraft Carriers Dispatched
to Sea Of Japan off North Korean Coast

 

We can all expect that when they arrive, in about three to five months depending on average speed and any requirements to hold their positions while repairs to any of the convoy becomes required. We must point out that Deputy Navy Commander Touraj Hassani stated that the armada would set out for the Atlantic in March and that, “The Atlantic Ocean is far and the operation of the Iranian naval flotilla might take five months.” We will point out that when Argentina sent troops to the Falkland Islands it took the British flotilla almost three months to sail down and settle matters. The assessment of five months could be realistic and will also depend on which route they plan on taking. They could sail through the Panama Canal after traversing the Indian and Pacific Oceans or pass through the Suez Canal through the Mediterranean and into the Atlantic or, if truly daring, could pass around the southern tip of Africa into the South Atlantic and head north. The one route we would seriously doubt would be passing across the Pacific Ocean and then around the southern tip of the Americas as those are fairly treacherous waters even for modern ships. The main questions are why they are sending these ships, how many are in the convoy, and what is the number of “warships” versus support vessels and what are their nature and kind. The other question is what will be the responding moves from Washington. Our bet is there will be a response of United States warships waiting to greet the Iranian vessels in the Mediterranean Sea if they pass the Suez Canal and definitely in the North Atlantic upon their arrival no matter the route. What might the responding ships from the United States appear to the Iranians? Our guess is the picture below would be the minimal response, a single carrier strike group with normal escort and not the entirety of the Atlantic fleet, which would entail three times the number of surface vessels and possible a second carrier (see image below). The one item we can promise the Iranian fleet is they will not be lonely. What could result which would be interesting and really make Iran appear weak, rather than this being their great show of strength, would be their requiring assistance from the United States Navy should one of their ships require extensive repairs for which they were not prepared. The odd thing is that the United States Navy, after receiving clearance, would offer whatever assistance the Iranian fleet may require to make any repairs to a floundering ship.

 

Carrier Strike Group

 

What is interesting is that the Iranians are attempting to send vessels beyond their range of ability to service the ships. They have sent warships into the eastern Mediterranean Sea before which they could easily have docked in Beirut or any other Syrian or Lebanese port should they need fuel or repairs and have had parts sent from Iran. In the North Atlantic Ocean, the Iranians would not have a port of call in which they could seek repairs, fuel or anything else they may require. The closest friendly ports would be again in Syria or Lebanon which is quite a distance from the North Atlantic for a floundering or stricken vessel to limp on its own, or worse, be towed by another ship, something which requires additional fuel. This is the most distant attempt to station warships by Iran to date to the best of our knowledge. What their intention may be, beyond a show of presumed strength and an ability to actually stage warships that far from their homeports, is difficult to predict. What is of additionally interest will be the numbers and kinds of escort vessels, as they will require bringing additional fuel and supplies for their fleet. Further, it is not known what their ulterior motives may be. Also, it is known that the Iranians have practiced and have specially adapted merchant type vessels which could also be used as escort ship which are adapted for launching of ballistic missiles with ranges up to and over two-thousand miles. These specially adapted ships are to be utilized for attacking land targets anywhere on the globe from these ships as they can take their launching location anywhere. From the North Atlantic Ocean, such a launch could reach as far into North America to easily reach Chicago and the major cities along the Mississippi River. From well out to sea they could also be a threat to New York, Boston, Washington D.C. and the rest of the Atlantic seaboard. Iranian leaders often make no secret of their intents to one-day replace the United States as the preeminent power of the world. They also regularly chant slogans such as “Death to Israel, Death to America” with the Supreme Leader sometimes joining the chant and at other times simply observing appreciatively.

 

Iranian Fleet on Previous Maneuvers

 

There can be no mistake that this is intended to pose a threatening image letting the United States know that Iran has the capability to reach its shores with naval forces. The other unknown is how the United States reacts to the Iranian presence in what the United States considers their playground. One can be assured that the North Atlantic is not big enough for two such powers and it is likely that the United States will make such very clear. The unknowns on the United States side will be the number of ships which shadow the Iranians and whether their will also be overflights of the Iranian fleet by United States aircraft, and whether such aircraft will be carrier launched or provided by the Air Force from its bases along the Atlantic coastal regions. All told, there is a third potentiality. That is that the Iranian fleet never does arrive in the Atlantic Ocean at all and returns to Iran after sailing partially to the destination only to be forced to return due to fleet problems forcing their return. It may also be the Iranian intent to merely sail into the Mediterranean Sea, make port in Beirut, and then sail back to Iran, as that is the furthest they have sailed previously, and simply announce that they went into the North Atlantic claiming that all denials are simply foreign propaganda intended to denigrate the capabilities of Iran. That would then be something done for their internal consumption. Never underestimate the power of claims made to impress the masses.

 

What would be the worst-case scenario? I think we all know the answer to that question. The absolute worst-case scenario would be any confrontation between Iranian vessels and those of the United States. Even worse would be the launching of missiles by the Iranians towards the United States targeting cities. What people should have assessed by this time that as Iran has been working towards producing nuclear weapons for over twenty years, it is obvious that they would have produced a number of, at the very least, atomic warheads and potentially thermonuclear warheads to place atop their ballistic missiles. Should they launch multiple ballistic missiles targeting New York and Washington D.C. in sufficient numbers to assure that at a minimum at least a few reach their intended targets, that would be the beginning of World War III. Fortunately, this is an extremely remote possibility, but it cannot be completely ruled out. Should such a turn of events unfold, it will be time for everyone to brace themselves for the worst. At the top of the brace yourself list will be a tie between Israel and Saudi Arabia which both would likely be attacked simultaneously as Iran would know that they would have a very narrow window in which to attack whomever they hold the greatest hatreds before the United States would respond ending their ability to conduct further attacks. The next issue would be if such an attack would draw others into making their moves to be the most powerful nations surviving such a conflict. There are the possibilities for North Korea to move on South Korea, China to move on Taiwan and possibly India, Russia to move on reestablishing its control over many of the former Soviet States and who knows what other nations might decide this was their opportunity. This will most likely not be the result of anything Iran may have in its plans. The leadership of Iran often has made statements that it would be worth having their nation wiped off the map if they could take the United States or Israel, not to mention both, with them. Hopefully that was simply more bluster and not their intentions for some future war they would initiate. The first thing which the world need to witness is Iran actually making it with this fleet to the North Atlantic. Should they accomplish this, that will be a feat in and of itself and something which would not bode well for the future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

How to Kill the Next Flotilla

 

We reported earlier this week in our article How Does Europe Define NGO in Israel and More? where we examined the funding for much of the costs of the ‘Freedom Flotilla III’ being funded largely through a French NGO using funding provided by the government of France. We had mentioned how so many European NGOs are more government agencies than non-governmental agencies and there are even a fair number of Israeli NGOs financed by funds from European nations and the European Union, some directly and some through other go-between NGOs, levels of separation and deniability. The ‘Freedom Flotilla III’ should be reaching Israel after they drum up enough media coverage stopping at port after port all across the southern ports of Europe along the Mediterranean Sea. Some of those on the flotilla are paid instigators which must be rough duty to sail around the Mediterranean between ports watching those chosen to be the most telegenic and sympathetic looking and sounding giving interviews to an eager press giving coverage about the plight their supplies will alleviate. If only that were true. The provisions on former flotillas consisted of spoiled food stuffs and outdated medical provisions which were not even bothered to be picked up after being transferred across the border into Gaza the day after being unloaded at an Israeli port.

 

The one question I have heard that got me to thinking (yes, I actually do think at times) was why Israel would go to such extremes to prevent a flotilla from reaching Gaza if it was known they normally did not carry any contraband such as weapons, explosives or dual use materials? Great question was my reaction and I attempted to point out that once you make one exception and then that blockade is breached, then the entire reason for the blockade can be challenged in the international courts which might lead to the blockade being determined to no longer be required and then Iran and others could ship any and all weapons into Gaza making their next war with Israel far more dangerous. Still, what if Israel began their own news blitz and each time the flotilla spokesperson gives their spiel about the mean Israeli blockade and how they are carrying only humanitarian supplies and still the Israelis are likely to answer their purely good intentions with excessive violence. Of course they will leave out the part about their having specialists who will instigate the confrontation with violent attacks on the Israeli units in attempts to throw them overboard, kidnap one or two and injure or otherwise prevent any diversion of the ship hoping to either get pictures of IDF violence or forcing the final and last ditch measure of sinking one of the vessels. The person who asked why not allow the flotilla pass is a dangerous precedent as this would permit for Israel to be relying that some other nation making a determination that there is no contraband (contraband includes weapons, explosives, certain fertilizers, and numerous dual use items some of which are less obvious than others) aboard replacing Israel actually checking themselves and also the potential for contraband to be transferred at sea after any inspection thus defeating the blockade through simple deceit. Still, there might be a way of prolonging the gamesmanship of this flotilla and use it to Israel’s advantage. Make it known that if the flotilla were to get their cargo inspected by three nations certifying their cargo, any three stops they desire, and add one last inspection made by Egyptian military authorities at the port of Alexandria and then come straight to Gaza once cleared by the Egyptian military, they would be given free escorted entry to Gaza. Israel should then arrange for the Egyptians to escort the flotilla to their maritime border where an Israeli naval vessel to escort and assure that no other transfers are made at sea and then allow them to continue unhindered further to Gaza port. The Israelis should encourage media live television coverage of the arrival and unloading of the flotilla ships if they can spirit up any actual media excitement for such a momentous occasion. Whether there will be live coverage or not, Israel should place a few drones at high enough altitude to make them difficult to see and beyond any possible audible detection with sufficiently capable to televise the unloading live even using night vision technology if the unload is done at night. When the flotilla arrives and Hamas and Islamic Jihad and their other friends refuse to unload the flotilla and simply send them back from whence they came, then the world will see the falsehood of the flotilla racket and hopefully such shame will end the flotilla farce once and for all.

 

I can hear the sceptics with their claims that such bad media won’t prevent the next flotilla as they will simply keep coming and refusing to allow anybody, especially the Egyptians from inspecting their cargos. The main part of the plan is the Egyptian inspection using the Egyptian military overseen by officers picked by President Sisi for their honor and dedication to the new government and the desires of the President and who will do a thorough inspection as they have no love lost for Hamas and friends thus Israel can reliably expect the Egyptians to perform the cargo inspections. The demand for three European nations to perform some kind and unspecified inspection will be to provide evidence should the Egyptians find contraband that the Europeans either missed or intentionally overlooked, then the Europeans will share in any disgrace. This could lead to another manner of checking shipments headed for Gaza but sufficiently onerous demanding three inspections in different nation’s ports and then for the final and most important inspection at Alexandria by the Egyptian military. This may sound like a ponderous set of demands but one must remember that there is another alternative of docking and unloading at an Israeli port and permitting an Israeli inspection and then their delivering your approved goods as quickly as possible by overland in the earliest available trucks as part of the many tens of tractor-trailer loads delivered daily with food, medical and other non-military provisions each day except the Sabbath. Each delivery should be given this choice to every ship intending to make a delivery to Gaza and let them know that after the Egyptian inspection clears their deliveries then they must be escorted to international waters by an Egyptian military vessel which will turn the ship over to Israeli escort to the maritime border of Gaza from which they are on their own. This should be a fair alternative and those who wish to take advantage of such an offer may find some surprises should they also believe that they could get some contraband past the Israelis by using the alternative method. Even the Europeans would be inclined to make an honest inspection should they ever, intentionally or through error or misunderstanding of definitions for contraband, something Israel would be glad to provide a list to any nation requesting such, permit things to pass which they know should be prevented to pass once they have been disgraced when the Egyptians find the contraband and alert the Israelis while confiscating the contraband turning it over to the Israelis when they pass the now inspected cargo without the contraband to continue on to Gaza. There is no reason Israel should be forced to appear brutish when they can offer an alternative to docking in an Israel port so they might be able to take wonderful and generously offered alternative method by which they would be granted full permission to dock at Gaza and even take all the celebratory pictures and videos with their friends in Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the people of Gaza.

 

Israel has no real desire to add to the suffering for the citizens of Gaza. The proof is that the Israelis removed every last Israeli from Gaza on August of 2005 while even took the trouble of exhuming the graves of every Jew and moved them to a new location to keep their graves from being desecrated by any Palestinians desire to act on their vengeful hatreds and bulldozed the synagogue building after removing every last religious items so as to prevent its desecration. Then all of Gaza, every last millimeter was given to the Arab Palestinian Authority who lost their control over Gaza in the Fatah and Hamas with Islamic Jihad in the civil war for the control of Gaza which had been building in intensity but exploded into its final violence filled conflagration from June 10, 2007 to June 15, 2007 setting up the situation of steady rising of violence out of Gaza largely firing rockets on Israel targeting almost exclusively Israeli civilians and other provocations. Now Israel has all of that to thank for the flotillas testing their resolve but perhaps the time has come to use brains over brawn, intelligence as resolve and finally using the flotilla be the ones choosing which venue they prefer. If they choose to force a confrontation with Israel rather than receive merely four inspections with three from potentially friendly European co-conspirators plus an inspection from the Arab state of Egypt and after passing these small requirements then they preferred to force a confrontation, not Israel. By forcing Israel to divert them to an Israeli port instead of, what Israel in their magnanimity had offered to the flotilla coordinators, financiers, political activists and other members and crews, to have inspections at three of their European ports of call plus have them make their next to the last port call in Alexandria for an Egyptian Military run inspection permitting them to achieve direct access to the Port in Gaza. The monies of their arrival at the Gaza City port should prove interesting as will any unloading of goods from flotilla ships which have little or no cargo. The light of truth can be a wonderful light to use to reveal the reality of such farcical attempts to put the IDF, and in turn all Israel, in the worst light possible and refusing to circumvent the unfair Israeli inspections and instead take an alternative method of inspection where the first three are of their choice and one of Israeli origin. Simply offer an alternative and then allow nature and absurdity take their selected path.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Turkey, Israel, Gaza, and Supply Ship

The biggest story in the Middle East happened this past week and almost nobody covered the story. Twenty months after the Gaza Flotilla fiasco where the Turkish IHH terrorists viciously attacked and attempted to kill or kidnap the IDF soldiers enforcing the legal embargo on Hamas in Gaza we are treated to the complete opposite sending real honest aid into Gaza under a self-imposed press blackout. This happened on a ship named the Mavi Marmara and instantaneously the entire world heard that name, Mavi Marmara, and it became synonymous with Israeli brutality. The whole world lauded the terrorists and condemned the Israeli IDF soldiers for weeks afterwards. The fact that the entire flotilla carried absolutely no useable aid did not matter. The fact that Israel still delivered the outdated and useless medical supplies and foodstuffs and Hamas never even bothered to pick them up allowing them instead to sit in the Middle East sun until they were finally hauled away as the trash they had been from the start never was mentioned. The fact that the entire Mavi Marmara Flotilla was a rouse cooked up to make a spectacle for the world to condemn Israel did not matter, the world jumped at the opportunity to make Israel the evil menace completing the plan just as it was meant to go down. But the new story today, twenty months later, will be ignored and virtually nobody in the world will hear of this story, this almost non-story.

 

Here we are, twenty months after the ship named the Mavi Marmara made headlines around the world and yet, when an honest to goodness aid ship from Turkey delivers aid for Gaza, according to protocols, and using the Israeli port of Ashod; was designed to be so completely ignored that the actual name of the ship was left unmentioned. The Turkish ship was reported to have carried aid worth $1.5 million worth of aid consisting of medical supplies, food and other basics. This part of the report was confirmed by Turkish Deputy Premier Bekir Bozdag as was the fact that Turkey had arranged with the Israeli Defense Ministry all details for the delivery of the aid last October. There was absolutely no attempt or even mention of the blockade of Gaza and every detail and effort was expended to assure this real aid was delivered in a timely and peaceable manner.

 

There were no heroic proclamations of defiance in the face of untold cruelty perpetrated by Israel by imposing the blockade. The only statement came from the Turkish Deputy Premier Bekir Bozdag who stated that, “innocent civilians not only die by shelling but can be killed by the strict siege they are being held under, which prevents the entry of food, medicine and other basic needs,” after confirming the safe passage arranged for delivery of every ounce of this aid from Turkey to the people of Gaza. The rest of this non-story occurs each and every day week in and week out. Rarely mentioned and often denied is that Israel transports literally tons of food, clothing, medical supplies and sundry other necessities into Gaza daily. There have been times that Hamas has refused to receive these supplies usually just before arranged visitations by international inspectors in order to convey the idea that they are living deprived of basic necessities, a story happily covered at regular intervals. But the fact that supplies are transferred into Gaza daily and that any country or organization wishing to send nonmilitary relief shipments into Gaza may do so through approved channels and all aid is inspected and transferred will receive no coverage. The fact that Israel actually sees to the well-being of a territory from which they have withdrawn every Jew within its borders and only has insisted to inspect the inflow of aid due to the endless barrage of rockets and mortars fired into Israeli towns and cities every week from an independent, Jew-free Gaza run by the Hamas terrorists is also seldom mentioned. Yet, you can rely on regular mention of any reprisals when Israel uses their military in measured attacks to destroy rocket, mortar and other weaponry warehouses and machine shops in an attempt to curtail their use against Israeli civilians. That makes the front page news as did the Mavi Marmara fake aid flotilla. Meanwhile, the fact that Israel allows aid in and Turkey is able to send a real aid shipment to Gaza through Israel without incident remains relatively unreported. That, my friends is the truth but I will most likely receive e-mails calling me a tool of the Jewish world lobby and I will be accused of being used and of lying. Sometime the most reviled thing in the world is the truth.

 

Beyond the Cusp