Beyond the Cusp

September 19, 2013

Obama Desires Testing Surrender to Iran

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President Obama has responded to new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s laying of bait when it was reported in the German news source, Spiegel Online, Iran is “prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges.” President Rouhani expects that in return for decommissioning the heavily fortified Fordo facility that the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the United Nations and all others would rescind there sanctions. There is no mention by Iran that they plan on closing any of their other enrichment plants such as the one in Qom and a suspected recently opened new location which has been tentatively identified. With no guarantees that Iran would be willing to let a schedule for the dismantling of the rest of its nuclear sites including all of their enrichment sites, their plutonium producing reactor, their ballistic missile research, and their high explosive and trigger mechanism test areas setting all sanctions aside would completely free the Iranians to continue their steady movement towards nuclear weapons and their delivery systems without paying any price. There should be no difficulty in totally rejecting such an offer out of hand without having to think very hard.

But President Obama is a deep thinker who must mull over every decision and offer well beyond the point of distraction. Often there must be those advisors who feel like yelling, “What is so difficult about this?” when waiting for the Ditherer in Chief to make decisions after being briefed.  During an interview with Spanish-language network Telemundo on Tuesday, Obama said. “There is an opportunity here for diplomacy, and I hope the Iranians take advantage of it. There are indications that Rouhani, the new president, is somebody who is looking to open dialogue with the West and with the United States, in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. And so we should test it.” If the President by “test it” means measure the level and consider actions commensurate with the depth of the Iranian commitment, then perhaps he is working with a full understanding and not simply seeking a path for complete surrender rescinding all of the United States sanctions relieving all pressure from the Iranian economy and allowing any ability to force change to evaporate in that instant. The level of President Obama’s shallowness has been well defined, especially in foreign affairs, so we only need to measure the intent and honesty of Iranian President Rouhani to predict what to expect.

The recent news coverage of the election of President Hassan Rouhani has showered him with praises and the gentle mantle of peacemaker and the standard of reasonableness by which one could measure all others against. The depth of slavish praises has been worthy of that heaped by preteen young girls on their teen idols it has been so blindingly one-sided. The only fly in the ointment has been the warnings coming from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and numerous other leaders of the ruling coalition in Israel. So, which side is right? Could it be possible that the Israelis know something that the rest of the Western media and political leadership don’t know making Israel right and the rest of the world is making a dangerous mistake? That hardly would seem likely simply because it is preposterous to believe that the entire Western World and all of their intelligence agencies and thousands upon thousands of experts and advisors could all be misjudging the new President in Iran and only little Israel can tell that the emperor is wearing no shimmering cloak of reasonableness and virtue.

So, what can we divine from the past actions, positions and other information about the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani? The very first item that must be considered is exactly how he became the President of Iran. Presumably he won in an election which actually is just a pretense used to mask the dictatorial nature of the clerical rulers over Iran. It is a given that Rouhani was the personally approved candidate above all others as decided by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani was among the names which were brought to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Assembly of Experts had reviewed the candidates who were seeking to be included on the ballot and removed any undesirables, questionable or other disqualifications leaving a core group of candidates considered loyal to the clerical leadership and considered acceptable to build whatever foreign and domestic story the clerical leadership had planned going forward. Best guess is that after President Ahmadinejad the clerical leadership was seeking a candidate who would be well spoken with a calming demeanor with no history of fanaticism or obvious ties to the<a href=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-ithna-ashari.htm> Twelvers</a> and one who was extremely familiar with the mannerisms and negotiation style of the Western World. This definition is almost the exact resume of Hassan Rouhani who was a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, is well educated and well-spoken with a past that is above reproach. As wonderful as that description is, it does not mean that Rouhani is to be trusted in any negotiations as those who had met with him tell of a hard negotiator who is persuasive and manipulative often concealing his intents behind his polished, carefully chosen words. Rouhani thus was the hand-picked candidate by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and therefore the winner of the elections. Any belief that Iranian elections were not a ruse used to give a democratic shield behind which to camouflage a dictatorship was demolished by the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2009, thus it is understood that the person who wins such elections was actually the person anointed by the Supreme Leader.

The truth of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is he has been hand-picked to lead a deception by which Iran will make largely symbolic gestures expecting to reap huge rewards in return simply because they appear to be cooperating and President Obama is ripe for the fleecing as he is in dire need of success, real or false. This fits perfectly with the ploy by President Rouhani with his offering to decommission one of his uranium enrichment facilities and having all or most of the financially crippling sanctions removed from Iran, especially the sanctions against their exporting oil which is the Iranian most crucial trade item, the one their entire economy revolves around. Depending on the amount of success achieved by this deception the Iranian leadership will devise the next steps in their crafted path to attain nuclear weapons capability while managing to retain sufficient economic freedom from sanctions to relieve what has become a crushing situation under the ratcheted economic sanctions. It has only been the most recent sanctions that put the Iranian economy over the edge thus they do not need to attain sweeping relief from the sanctions; they just require the end of certain critical sanctions of which the sanctions on oil head the list. As President Rouhani was a previous nuclear head negotiator for the Iranians he is also very familiar and quickly brought up to date on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program and exactly what is still necessary to complete their quest in a timely manner. This past experience will serve him well as he will be able to make offers outside of the P5+1 talks, which include the five major veto holding powers of the Security Council plus Germany, thus allowing for a coordinated two-pronged assault to find and take advantage of any weaknesses or easily beguiled people such as President Obama and move rapidly with the minimal discomfort to their goal of nuclear weapons power. The description by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of equating President Hassan Rouhani with a wolf in sheep’s clothing as very accurate. He is also likely a slick fast-talker who can be glib, gracious, and disarming by a quick wit and the brushing aside of concerns or disagreements. He will likely be magnanimous if it serves his designs and hard as granite when needing to stand firm. He will have the piercing of a diamond tipped drill and the precision of a verbal surgeon as he will pick apart and cut out his needs with great skill and deftness. President Hassan Rouhani should not be underestimated and his words rarely taken at face value. One should always look for the hidden meanings and on the lookout for misdirection and baited traps which will result in allowing Rouhani the advantage he needs to gain trust or what may at the time appear to be a minor point, never take anything merely as an honest offer as there will always be a hidden meaning or path to back away after gaining the desired prize he sought. Never be at comfort in his presence and read carefully and listen well to his words and the tones and inflections he used to mask and enforce those words. To put it simply, do not trust, verify, and always suspect the worst or the biggest of deceits.

Beyond the Cusp

Addendum: After testing the will of President Obama and finding him to be beyond anxious in his desire to appear to make progress, Iranian new President Rouhani walked back the offer to decommission the Fordo Nuclear Uranium Enrichment Processing Plant. President Rouhani went even further negating that Iran was even interested in the pursuit of nuclear weapons while reclaiming the Iranian right to conduct nuclear research.

August 6, 2013

Iranian Master Ventriloquist Changes Dummies

A Master Ventriloquist has a particular set of skills among which are they are amusing, able to throw their voice, assume different personalities to match each Dummy, keep straight which voice to use both between dummies and when changing in conversation from his own voice and the dummy’s voice, engage the audience, and memorize the routine. These skills and others which any particular ventriloquist has mastered do not change or alter when they change from one of their dummies despite the fact that the act is altered as one of the participants, namely the dummy, has been changed out. The ventriloquist does not change when the dummy is changed. He retains his same voice, same ability to thrill and amuse the audience, and still works the various features of the dummy whether it is an expressive puppet professionally built with various facial and other features which can be controlled by the ventriloquist or it is a simple sock puppet which is taking the most simple of puppets used as the ventriloquist prop. When one is watching a ventriloquist perform his routines one does not expect for the ventriloquist changes his puppet that the ventriloquist will necessarily assume an entirely different persona himself despite the fact that the Dummy will have a different sounding voice, movements and other particulars which establish its personality and interaction with the ventriloquist. Despite the changes committed to make the new dummy a separate personality, nobody in the audience is expecting the act to suddenly transform miraculously.

 

What we just witnessed in Iran was the changing of the mouthpiece who serves as the voice of the Supreme leader and the ruling Ayatollahs of Iran. Ahmadinejad was swapped out for a new President, Hassan Rouhani. Of course the Ayatollahs will want to use their exchanging mouthpieces to alter and profit their position in the world and use it to reset as much of the Iranian situation as they are able. President Hassan Rouhani will be set out with a script which will be designed to make it appear that a new, softer, more pliable, more accessible Iran now exists that seeks peaceful, friendly relations and offers a new openness with the world on their nuclear programs. This was evidenced as President Rouhani’s first interaction with the press after being sworn in where he indicated he would pursue a less confrontational approach to nuclear talks with the six world powers than had his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. President Rouhani further claimed that Iran’s nuclear activities are “within the framework of law,” and that international sanctions are “baseless” and yet he insisted Iran would not be halting their uranium enrichment activities. President Rouhani sounded similar to the positions he had held while he represented Iran in their nuclear talks a decade ago. During his time as Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Mr. Rouhani often used obstructions and misleading statements to deceive and confuse the world as to Iranian intents and aims as well as how advanced and accomplished was their nuclear programs. The instillation of a new President in Iran is simply further proof that the more things change, the more they remain the same.

                                  

Despite evidence to the contrary from President Rouhani’s past performances and his initial statements and responses during interactions with the press and the Iranian people since his assuming the Presidency, the mainstream media and the political elites are all touting Mr. Rouhani as the coming of the great new moderate who will change and reset all settings and position within the government of Iran and bring a new approach which will align Iran with the desires of the international community. The leadership of the world is determined to use the inauguration of the new Iranian President to restart the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program and pretend that the negotiations have suddenly taken a complete change of direction deserving of renewed hopes even if doing such requires completely ignoring every single iota of evidence to the contrary. The real change is that the new Iranian President is a far more accomplished and smoother politician who is well practiced in the concepts and techniques of deception and misdirection capable of using all the tricks of the trade. Unlike his predecessor, President Rouhani does not take a confrontational position nor does he use brute force and direct defiance and opposition seeming to be immovable and resolute to withstand all assaults on his position as did former President Ahmadinejad. Instead, President Rouhani speaks in reasoned words using pleasing tones in order to passively resist thrusts while softly guiding them aside marshaling them into fruitless dead ends in order to maintain a soft resolve allowing for the continuation at speed of the nuclear program while beguiling his adversaries with sweet songs of agreement while refusing all agreements. President Rouhani is well practiced in all of the political arts using guile, concealment, double-entendres, and all forms of deceitfulness all without ever causing insult or injury yet also managing to put his adversaries at ease leaving them pleased with a false feeling of accomplishment. The leaders of the West and the mainstream media have all willingly been duped into believing their own propaganda and wishful dreaming as they are all in the mode of avoidance of conflict no matter the cost and are willing to do whatever it takes in order to be rewarded with a piece of paper filled with empty promises and meaningless words of agreement all expressing the accomplishment of the ultimate dream, peace in our time. Does nobody remember the everlasting shame of previous fools dancing to the pied pipers of those who would enjoin conquest through clever deceits and tunes of such sweet enticements which gathered the signatures of the blinded ones, Édouard Daladier and Neville Chamberlain?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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