President Obama has responded to new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani’s laying of bait when it was reported in the German news source, Spiegel Online, Iran is “prepared to decommission the Fordo enrichment plant and allow international inspectors to monitor the removal of the centrifuges.” President Rouhani expects that in return for decommissioning the heavily fortified Fordo facility that the United States, Britain, France, Germany, the United Nations and all others would rescind there sanctions. There is no mention by Iran that they plan on closing any of their other enrichment plants such as the one in Qom and a suspected recently opened new location which has been tentatively identified. With no guarantees that Iran would be willing to let a schedule for the dismantling of the rest of its nuclear sites including all of their enrichment sites, their plutonium producing reactor, their ballistic missile research, and their high explosive and trigger mechanism test areas setting all sanctions aside would completely free the Iranians to continue their steady movement towards nuclear weapons and their delivery systems without paying any price. There should be no difficulty in totally rejecting such an offer out of hand without having to think very hard.
But President Obama is a deep thinker who must mull over every decision and offer well beyond the point of distraction. Often there must be those advisors who feel like yelling, “What is so difficult about this?” when waiting for the Ditherer in Chief to make decisions after being briefed. During an interview with Spanish-language network Telemundo on Tuesday, Obama said. “There is an opportunity here for diplomacy, and I hope the Iranians take advantage of it. There are indications that Rouhani, the new president, is somebody who is looking to open dialogue with the West and with the United States, in a way that we haven’t seen in the past. And so we should test it.” If the President by “test it” means measure the level and consider actions commensurate with the depth of the Iranian commitment, then perhaps he is working with a full understanding and not simply seeking a path for complete surrender rescinding all of the United States sanctions relieving all pressure from the Iranian economy and allowing any ability to force change to evaporate in that instant. The level of President Obama’s shallowness has been well defined, especially in foreign affairs, so we only need to measure the intent and honesty of Iranian President Rouhani to predict what to expect.
The recent news coverage of the election of President Hassan Rouhani has showered him with praises and the gentle mantle of peacemaker and the standard of reasonableness by which one could measure all others against. The depth of slavish praises has been worthy of that heaped by preteen young girls on their teen idols it has been so blindingly one-sided. The only fly in the ointment has been the warnings coming from Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and numerous other leaders of the ruling coalition in Israel. So, which side is right? Could it be possible that the Israelis know something that the rest of the Western media and political leadership don’t know making Israel right and the rest of the world is making a dangerous mistake? That hardly would seem likely simply because it is preposterous to believe that the entire Western World and all of their intelligence agencies and thousands upon thousands of experts and advisors could all be misjudging the new President in Iran and only little Israel can tell that the emperor is wearing no shimmering cloak of reasonableness and virtue.
So, what can we divine from the past actions, positions and other information about the new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani? The very first item that must be considered is exactly how he became the President of Iran. Presumably he won in an election which actually is just a pretense used to mask the dictatorial nature of the clerical rulers over Iran. It is a given that Rouhani was the personally approved candidate above all others as decided by the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani was among the names which were brought to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after the Assembly of Experts had reviewed the candidates who were seeking to be included on the ballot and removed any undesirables, questionable or other disqualifications leaving a core group of candidates considered loyal to the clerical leadership and considered acceptable to build whatever foreign and domestic story the clerical leadership had planned going forward. Best guess is that after President Ahmadinejad the clerical leadership was seeking a candidate who would be well spoken with a calming demeanor with no history of fanaticism or obvious ties to the<a href=http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/intro/islam-ithna-ashari.htm> Twelvers</a> and one who was extremely familiar with the mannerisms and negotiation style of the Western World. This definition is almost the exact resume of Hassan Rouhani who was a former Iranian nuclear negotiator, is well educated and well-spoken with a past that is above reproach. As wonderful as that description is, it does not mean that Rouhani is to be trusted in any negotiations as those who had met with him tell of a hard negotiator who is persuasive and manipulative often concealing his intents behind his polished, carefully chosen words. Rouhani thus was the hand-picked candidate by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and therefore the winner of the elections. Any belief that Iranian elections were not a ruse used to give a democratic shield behind which to camouflage a dictatorship was demolished by the election of President Ahmadinejad in 2009, thus it is understood that the person who wins such elections was actually the person anointed by the Supreme Leader.
The truth of new Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is he has been hand-picked to lead a deception by which Iran will make largely symbolic gestures expecting to reap huge rewards in return simply because they appear to be cooperating and President Obama is ripe for the fleecing as he is in dire need of success, real or false. This fits perfectly with the ploy by President Rouhani with his offering to decommission one of his uranium enrichment facilities and having all or most of the financially crippling sanctions removed from Iran, especially the sanctions against their exporting oil which is the Iranian most crucial trade item, the one their entire economy revolves around. Depending on the amount of success achieved by this deception the Iranian leadership will devise the next steps in their crafted path to attain nuclear weapons capability while managing to retain sufficient economic freedom from sanctions to relieve what has become a crushing situation under the ratcheted economic sanctions. It has only been the most recent sanctions that put the Iranian economy over the edge thus they do not need to attain sweeping relief from the sanctions; they just require the end of certain critical sanctions of which the sanctions on oil head the list. As President Rouhani was a previous nuclear head negotiator for the Iranians he is also very familiar and quickly brought up to date on the progress of the Iranian nuclear program and exactly what is still necessary to complete their quest in a timely manner. This past experience will serve him well as he will be able to make offers outside of the P5+1 talks, which include the five major veto holding powers of the Security Council plus Germany, thus allowing for a coordinated two-pronged assault to find and take advantage of any weaknesses or easily beguiled people such as President Obama and move rapidly with the minimal discomfort to their goal of nuclear weapons power. The description by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu of equating President Hassan Rouhani with a wolf in sheep’s clothing as very accurate. He is also likely a slick fast-talker who can be glib, gracious, and disarming by a quick wit and the brushing aside of concerns or disagreements. He will likely be magnanimous if it serves his designs and hard as granite when needing to stand firm. He will have the piercing of a diamond tipped drill and the precision of a verbal surgeon as he will pick apart and cut out his needs with great skill and deftness. President Hassan Rouhani should not be underestimated and his words rarely taken at face value. One should always look for the hidden meanings and on the lookout for misdirection and baited traps which will result in allowing Rouhani the advantage he needs to gain trust or what may at the time appear to be a minor point, never take anything merely as an honest offer as there will always be a hidden meaning or path to back away after gaining the desired prize he sought. Never be at comfort in his presence and read carefully and listen well to his words and the tones and inflections he used to mask and enforce those words. To put it simply, do not trust, verify, and always suspect the worst or the biggest of deceits.
Addendum: After testing the will of President Obama and finding him to be beyond anxious in his desire to appear to make progress, Iranian new President Rouhani walked back the offer to decommission the Fordo Nuclear Uranium Enrichment Processing Plant. President Rouhani went even further negating that Iran was even interested in the pursuit of nuclear weapons while reclaiming the Iranian right to conduct nuclear research.
Beyond the Cusp 