Iranian Threats Greater Value than Their Treaty Signatures

 

Eventually a package will be presented and signed with great flair, fanfare, flourish, pomp and circumstance far in excess of the actual impact and affect the resolutions will possess, no matter whose version you believe, or the pages full of technical definitions, schedules and rights of inspections, both their scope and priorities and their timing and access as well as any specific particulars either side can impress or force the other side to permit to be woven seamlessly into the text, much of which will not survive the first disagreement or protestation despite their being engraved onto fine parchment pages within fine leather bindings, after all, for any agreement of this stature and importance, only the best quality and refinement will do. We were introduced to a taste of the manner by which the different translations apparently can alter the agreement to such an extent as to define the most simple and seemingly obvious of points, such as, “Snap inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will be permitted with access provided within six hours of their initial notice,” can be translated with great care assuring critical points retain their definitions and intents such that one version of these stipulations reads, “Snap inspections will not be attempted or accepted as such are an insult to the integrity and imply distrust which will not be tolerated.” This was an example as nobody is actually sure of any term or sentences included in the actual Framework Agreement as the likely most accurate translations were laboriously produced by the French and the European Union and in both cases the resulting works were claimed to be unintelligible nonsense. So, the next sets of meetings are being scheduled to be held in Vienna for reasons unknown. Our best guess is that one of those select million dollar poker tournaments will be held over a series of weekends allowing for Secretary of State Kerry to unwind while losing some of his wife’s soaked raison monies. We may be wrong but thought it sounded like as great a reason as that they found Lausanne, Switzerland to be far too chilly and figured that a warmer climate might thaw the sides making an agreement more easily accomplished. Perhaps we should start the next paragraph and stop attempting to be amusing.

 

The whole thing is that Iran has been quite up front about their intentions in so many things which when taken at face value are disturbing enough and of such a nature as to make any agreement they sign suspect simply due to their disdain for the Western world and especially their number one enemy which they claim is ripe and primed for destruction. The Fars News Agency has articles full of gems and many make it into their English editions, like this little gem titledIRGC: US Still Remain Iran’s Arch Foe. After a brief introduction they got right into the meat of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRCG) quotes mostly referring to the world according to the elite units which make up this, the special ops and other forces which are tasked with bringing the revolution to the rest of the world. The article jumped right to an IRGC statement released on the threshold of the anniversary of Ashoura, “The US is still the great Satan and the number one enemy of the (Islamic) revolution and the Islamic Republic and the Iranian nation inspired by the lessons of the great uprising of Ashoura, the eternal guidelines of the late Imam Khomeini as well as the wise and vigilant guidelines of Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei as the roadmap and compass of its movement will never allow the dignity and independence of the Islamic homeland to be threatened and harmed by the will of the enemies.” They continued going for the heart of their message and their lack of trust in the negotiations and tactics while blaming the United States for the turmoil and uprisings inflaming the Middle East claiming, “Contemplation on the bitter realities of today, specially the ISIL and Takfiri plots in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon more than any time before shows that the US is the house of the world’s plots and corruption that never intends to compromise and have real friendship with a popular and independent system that manifests the powerful existence of the beloved Islam.”

 

Another article from the same family titled Rallies Held Throughout Iran to Mark US Embassy Takeover relayed a message of great pride reporting that, “Tens of thousands of Iranians from all walks of life, including school and university students, took to the streets to commemorate the National Day of Campaign against Global Arrogance,” and went on to explain once again that “The demonstrators also condemned the US-led western sanctions against Iran, and stressed that the United States is the main enemy of the Iranian nation.” They also placed further emphasis stressing that “Since the 1979 takeover of the US embassy in Tehran, Iranians have been celebrating the occasion every year by holding rallies on the anniversary and marking it as the National Day against the ‘Global Arrogance’.” The article also explained that the day also commemorated numerous other anniversaries and concluded with a message of “Iranian university students took over the US embassy building to thwart what they called Washington’s plots against the Islamic Revolution. Inside the embassy, the students found shredded documents which proved their convictions.” The article was headed with a picture shot with an angle giving the impression of a large crown of people pressed together but only depicting an extremely small section thus could easily have been a particularly poor turnout as you can see below as we include their accompanying picture from the article.

Iranian annual celebration of American Embassy Takeover angled to present largest crowd while viewing a narrow slice

 

 

Iran has made numerous statements since 1979 presenting their hatred and distrust of the United States, the Western world, and their intent to destroy Israel using numerous allegorical and insinuating statements. Of course the first instance we found where words in Farsi do not always mean what any literal translation claims they mean as the Iranians are the ones who decide how each word should translate into other languages and even resort to explaining that there is no accurate translation and if they were to explain the actual meanings of many of their statements the entire Farsi statement would lose all meanings in any translation because other languages are so primitive that they do not have words with the full and accurate meaning including the innuendos, implications, intents and actual and figurative relations between the words thus translation is absolutely impossible. What their disingenuous excuses for the inability of Farsi to be translated to another language is simple, if I may quote the Spaniard, “You Keep Using That Word, I Do Not Think It Means What You Think It Means.” Of course there are no words in Farsi for, “Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.” But there likely is a single Farsi word to exclaim the simple command given by Fezzik the giant played by Andre the Giant in response to Inigo Montoya while fighting the crowd calmly requested assistance saying, “Excuse… Excuse me… Excuse me… Fezzik, please?” and Fezzik complied with the unspoken request with a simple, “Everybody Move!” Perhaps somebody should tell all the sides in the Iranian negotiations with the P5+1, which consists of Russia, China, France, Great Britain, Germany and the United States, as they need some added impetus as these negotiations have lasted long enough for Iran to have produced a dozen warheads by the time June 30, 2015 rills around and they very likely will announce to the world that they have grown closer, before growing apart, and with just a few months more and they should be within a lifetime from making a deal both sides can be proud to have pieced together.

 

Meanwhile, the United States can expect the Iranians to continue to stall, deceive and obfuscate all the while spinning an ever increasing number and installing improved quality to accompany the quantity all the while refusing to reply to questions while hampering inspections. The possibility that Iran has been fashioning warheads to match the reverse engineered original deactivated super EMP and other warheads they received during the period where the world was unsure of the status of numerous of the Soviet Union’s nuclear warheads sitting in neighboring nations where they could have been sold to the highest bidder. There were many rumors flying as the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact nations were falling to protests and even outright revolutions where leaders of the Communist Parties needed cash fast in order to reach a safe destination to retire with ample funds for a comfortable life. Selling a few nuclear warheads, even those without their central core making them inert, to an interested party such as Iran who held a fair amount of oil-soaked funds with which to purchase the entire range of such weapons, one should expect that the Iranians took great advantage of this situation. The Russian Super EMP Nuclear Warhead was considered to be in Iranian hands needing simply its nuclear core to be made operational. Of course such a warhead would be worth far more if it could be duplicated by the Iranian scientists, something definitely within their abilities.

 

The probability for Iran to have already manufactured even a single warhead fully armed including having a useable and detonable core, then it must be assumed that they have a couple dozen such warheads, both for EMP and others for regular detonating usage. Iran has presumably been working to produce a nuclear weapon since the early 1990s if not even before then. When one figured that the United States developed and built three devices, one for testing before usage, another of the same type built for use from a Boeing B-29 Superfortress, and another different design which they were so assured that it would be capable of detonation that it was deployed also in the Enola Gay without having been tested. The development of the United States first nuclear weapons systems took under four years. Of course it will be pointed out that the United States managed this under war type conditions where there existed a driving force making the development much faster as it had every top mind necessary working towards the development. The Iranians also believe they are at war with the world. One can see the evidence in the articles referred to at the beginning of the article, and their enemies are Israel and the United States, the little Satan and the Big Satan. These references are the driving necessities matching the same conditions existing back in the early developmental period of the United States. Iran has stated as much and regularly has rallies where the people chant to” bomb the United States” and to “bomb Israel” just as if the two nations, Israel and the United States were at war with Iran. The Iranian People are regularly told that the United States is believed itself at war with Iran and the proof is in the frightening rallies held most often every Friday after prayers.

 

Additionally, the Iranian government regularly has parades where the latest rockets and missiles are paraded before the people with drawings on them as well as notes written saying hello to the United States or Israel in them. These missiles are a part of military reviews which make up many Iranian memorial commemorative parades honoring the military or paying tribute to the Supreme Leaders Ayatollah Ali Hosseini Khamenei, or to the Former Supreme Leader and Father of the Revolution Ruhollah Moosavi Khomeini or Commemorating historic events such as the storming of the Embassy of the United States and taking over four-hundred hostages. There are also such parades held when celebrating historic events which have to do with Shia Islam, the Twelfth Imam, Mohammad’s life and other events where these displays of military might are used to impress on the people that their nation is strong and an equal in power against any other nation on the planet, particularly the United States and Israel. The Iranian President, Supreme Leader and other ranking Iranian political, religious and military leaders often in speeches to remind the people that the Revolution will be spread and that the conquest and glory of their Revolution has plans to place its flag over the White House and that their military leadership have designated numerous targets which are weak which they will strike when the time is right and how the exploding of sixty-thousand missiles will bring the entirety of Western decadence to its knees leaving them eradicated as punishment for their arrogance. These displays are very reminiscent of the Soviet Union May Day Parades and other militaristic reviews as still held in China and North Korea putting the Iranians in good company whose history of broken promises and trashed agreement where their signatures on treaties only promised their inevitable disregard unless the treaty had strictly defined methods putting forth exactly how such terms were to be enforced, or as President Reagan would say it, “Trust but verify.” One vital item on every such treaty which was paramount for the “Trust but verify” was the snap surprise inspection. If such inspections are delayed even a single day then one should assume the treaty has been violated and if the other side refuses to include surprise snap inspections, which indicate they have absolutely no intentions to keep to the terms of the agreement. Another telltale sign that the one side intends to ignore and break even the intents of an agreement is when they demand that their reward be granted upon signing and not delivered in stages after proof of compliance. It is interesting that the Iranians are refusing to permit snap inspections, inspections of military instillations where work might be underway in violation of the treaty, the obligation to answer questions about present and past military applications which have been or are being undertaken, and the Iranians are demanding the complete removal of all sanctions immediately upon the signing of any agreement. If you require any further proof that the Iranians are not planning on keeping any of their obligations to any treaty then you must have been one of those who negotiated with former President Carter at the behest of President Clinton with the North Koreans to prevent their becoming a nuclear weapons power, oh wait, many of the people working on this deal from the State Department are the same ones they had negotiate with North Korea, whatever could go wrong? My bet is that Secretary of State Kerry, in grand fashion very similar to that of President Carter, will announce how this treaty guarantees Iran will be unable to develop and manufacture nuclear weapons for at least ten to fifteen years. This announcement will likely be followed within eighteen months an Iranian test of a nuclear weapon, the best case scenario, or the worst case scenario the Iranians will use nuclear weapons as the initial strike to be followed by their invading the target nation, if it should be as we would expect, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the Gulf States taking control of the remainder of the largest oil fields currently active in the immediate area of Iran and their puppet state of Iraq.

 

We have made a Page with select Military Displays of military parade reviews to give you a smattering of the troops and some of their weapons and missiles with an emphasis on their ballistic missiles. We will be needing at some future date to include pictures of the Russian S-300 series anti-aircraft radars and missile systems, one of the top systems of its kind in the world assessed to equal or possibly surpass the United States Patriot Missile Batteries. The inclusion of these systems will make any airstrike on Iran very costly demanding that either a large force of fourth generation aircraft or an attack force comprised of stealth aircraft if one is to overcome these systems. They are a game changer and Vladimir Putin, or as we like to refer to him, Vlad the Invader, knows full well that the S-300 anti-aircraft system may technically be a defensive system incapable of attacking any nation in itself, its ability to defeat virtually any air assault by any nation save the United States would prove so costly that no nation in the Middle East could dare attack Iran and deter their drive to nuclear weapons capabilities as it would make their enrichment and other facilities near impossible to strike with aircraft, cruise missiles or medium range ballistic missiles thus making the Iranian path to nuclear armaments a well paved six lane freeway without even a single pothole. So much for the S-300 being merely defensive when it guards the Iranian capability to produce nuclear weapons and the ballistic missiles on which to deliver them to their targets.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Could Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei be Right?

 

There is one leader in the world who has taken a unique view of the so-called Framework Agreement, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei of Iran. He has decided to be neither for the Framework nor against the Framework for as he sees it, there really is no Framework to support or oppose. He has posted to his official website, “It’s all about the details. The disloyal side may want to stab Iran in the back over the details; it is too early to congratulate. What’s been done so far secures neither the main deal nor its contents nor is it even clear whether talks will bear fruit and lead to a deal.” The Ayatollah Khamenei might be the only commentator to actually call the Framework Agreement what it really is, all things to all people. As has been commented on this site and elsewhere, there appear to be as many versions of the Framework as there are commentators making their own assessments and predictions. The immediate reality which struck within hours of the announcement of there being a Framework Agreement there were commentaries from all fronts on the terms of the Framework Agreement. The White House gave their interpretation which included “fact sheet” which included the most rosy and wonderful set of conditions giving the indications that the P5+1 had procured every single item from even the most optimistic sources’ predictions of what would constitute the perfect agreement. Then there was the news of the Iranian conclusions about the Framework Agreement which granted Iran every last desire they could possibly have expected. Then there was what might be the actual best representation of the actual Framework Agreement given by the French and the European Union Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini, both who held the supposed actual copies of the direct, interpretation free, translation of the actual Framework Agreement from which the United States and Iran each had made their own determination and translations. The unique, and in our opinion, near perfect interpretation and potentially most direct and honest translation of the actual Framework Agreement is the French version which is not required to fulfill any expectations nor infer any political intents satisfying public opinions and provide, false as they might be, feelings of safety and satisfaction of our hopes and dreams.

 

So, if we are expecting the framework agreement, as the citizens in the United States have been told by their media, was satisfied by the Framework Agreement, you will likely not be uplifted by the rest of this article. If you are seeking promises that your nations has hoodwinked the Western Imperialist fools and have used the wiles and tactics developed over the thousands of years or Persian history and conquest to deliver the perfect and most promising possible affirmation of your leaders promises, you too will likely be upset by the remainder of this article. Even those who have been left scratching their heads after reading the French version of the Framework Agreement and desire somebody to make sense out of the jumbled up mashing of contradictory terms and nonsensical jumble of words, we will not be much help here either. We will try to explain what has occurred, maybe even explain some of the why, and finally give a guess at what to expect between now and the June 30, next deadline. As far as the actual meaning of the Framework Agreement, we believe the French is by far the most accurate translation which is anything but satisfying.

 

The Ayatollah Khamenei probably nailed the true reality about the Framework Agreement, it was actually meaningless and was an acquiescing by the Iranian to allow President Obama and his supporting actors to perform their kabuki dance for their supporting media and spin doctors giving them the ability to appear victorious and gaining the upper hand and have bested the Iranians by issuing their fact sheet while the Iranians were happy to issue their own version of a fact sheet which supported a completely opposite set of realities drawn from the Framework Agreement. The French version tells us everything we need to understand about the Framework Agreement. It is simply the invention which permits a continued set of negotiations despite their original statements that the postponement to March 31 was to be the final delay for reaching an agreement. This addressed the promise to finally reach an accord by claiming that they had made progress and set down a set of agreements which would act as the skeleton of the eventual agreement which is now scheduled to be produced in another quarter of a year, three months. This was their way of allowing another stretching of the deadline kicking the can down the road. If one looks at the promises President Obama and his supporting staff and media have set as their interpretation, if not the actual terminology, of the Framework Agreement it does not prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed nation, it merely puts that date off by ten years, the exact ten years which Islamic traditions allow for the application of a Hudna which states that the longest period any truce or treaty is permitted is a decade and which can be transgressed by the Islamic party to the Hudna if they feel they have the tactical advantage and strength which they had lacked when seeking the Hudna. Actually, the ten years limit to the majority of the terms of the agreement in the Framework Agreement may be the only accuracy which we can rely upon and yet it is also the most troubling of the claims made by the White House. We are not going anywhere near claiming that the ten year timing in the Framework Agreement and the fact that the Islamic limitation on treaties of such natures being limited by the Hudna to ten years makes President Obama a Muslim, but we would agree that he has a deeper knowledge of Islamic laws and practices and may be more sensitive to such nuances which has driven him to implement the ten year limitation for much of the Framework Agreement out of respect.

 

So, we have a Framework Agreement and have three separate and conflicting versions of said document with one being so vague and contradictory as to make it worthless, where does all this lead? It leads exactly where we have been before as this is far from the first extension of the nuclear weapons talks. This is notable because this extension is merely a quarter of a year compared to the previous delays which were often a year or longer. There was a statement by CIA Director John Brennan this past week when speaking to Fox News Sunday stating on Fox News Sunday, “I think they realize there’s going to be tremendous costs and consequences and implications if they were to decide to go for a breakout.” And if the deal fails, “If they decide to go down that route, they know they will do so at their peril.” There have been recent rumors that the Iranians have constructed a secret nuclear enrichment facility which was built in an area beneath one of the government buildings in order to conceal the construction from the world and the entrance. This location has been stocked with cascades of their newest model IR-8 centrifuges which spin somewhere around twenty times faster than their original centrifuges. This may be behind the latest estimate which claims that Iran currently has a breakout time of a mere couple of months, three at the longest, to building a nuclear warhead as they already have all the technical talent and abilities to produce such a weapon. This claim takes into consideration the advances the Iranians have made in their rocketry and other weapons including drones and cruise missiles and came to the conclusion that the sole impediment is the length of time it takes to enrich sufficient highly enriched uranium over ninety percent and fashion the core for the device which we have been currently told is approaching a full year but some have claimed the Iranians would only need a few months, somewhere between two and three months. What makes all this of interest is that it is possible that the Iranians desired this three month extension so they can produce at least one nuclear device and to announce that the negotiations are ended as Iran has joined the nuclear weapons club of nations. This would present the world with the worst possible result from talking the problem to death and by extending the time repeatedly the Western powers have failed hopelessly at attaining their expected goal of preventing Iran from producing nuclear weapons. This has been our greatest fear here after the second time the talks were extended for yet another year or more as each of the extensions contained smaller additional extensions before simply setting a completely new date usually a year down the road. This frightening eventuality may be exactly what we will witness at the end of this latest push back of the deadline for an agreement. This is the problematic result of the hubris and superciliousness of the approach by President Obama and his haughty treatment of the Iran negotiations standing aloof and apart from the actual negotiations and simply seeing only that which he desired while ignoring everything else. Now President Obama may be about to be standing facing explaining how it was that Iran developed nuclear weapons not only on his watch but during President Obama’s declarations guaranteeing preventing their attaining such weapons.

 

There is one thing which can be guaranteed should an Iranian nuclear weapon be tested or used against either the Greater or Lesser Satan during his watch, he will simply blame it on George W. Bush, Benyamin Netanyahu and the Republicans who signed and sent the note to be published as an editorial aimed at the Iranians because, as we all have come to realize as this has been explained to us ad nauseum, it is absolutely impossible that President Obama and those he has assigned to carry out his directives to have failed unless a third party crossed some line and thus caused the misfortune. There will be much of the blame heaped on Israel, her Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu, the close cabinet around Prime Minister Netanyahu and with additional blame heaped upon Defense Minister Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon for making threats which caused the Iranians great amounts of fear pushing them to hurriedly produce a nuclear weapon for their protection from this Israeli threat. What will be the result of this ever dithered, repeatedly suspended, and interminably put-off target date for a final agreement which simply had to eventually produce a nuclear weapons armed Iran just as the negotiations with North Korea resulted in a nuclear armed North Korea after former President Jimmy Carter promised the deal made along with the scheduled IAEA inspections would lock down their efforts preventing their reaching a nuclear bomb. We used many of the same people in negotiating these ever protracted and delayed negotiations which oft appeared more like an attempt to provide the Iranians sufficient time to forge ahead and produce nuclear weapons while they were not obligated by any treaty as the negotiations were still in progress. When, and if Iran decides to go to breakout and charge forward to establish themselves as the next nation to join the nuclear club there might be nothing to prevent their breakout just as nothing short of taking the military option off the table and implementing the less than perfect solution but perhaps the only option which will attain the desired results. We can bet that if President William Jefferson Clinton refused to use United States military troops and firepower to prevent North Korea from attaining nuclear weapons then there is absolutely no possibility that President Obama would use military force to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear armed nation, and they are aware of this weakness and lack of fortitude, quite aware. And as we all understand, any arms displayed as part of national armaments will forever going forward have them as an option. Perhaps the only nation to choose to forgo nuclear arms after once having nuclear weapons has been South Africa who dismantled their nuclear armaments and destroyed everything which was part of the research and development such that if they were ever to decide to build another nuclear weapon they would need to start from square one. Still, it appears that Iran will become a nuclear armed nation in the near future if they desire such and there is nothing which will stand in their way. This is the sad reality of affairs and it appears that we will need to address what to do about a nuclear armed Iran and the ramification of an arms race spreading rapidly through the Middle East and also across North Africa spreading nuclear weapons capability in such a relatively unsteady area of the globe. G0d help us.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Deal that Assures a Nuclear Armed Iran

 

The one overriding fact which we have known and has been confirmed by multiple sources is that Iran has what they refer to as “R-265 spheroidal three-stage warheads” which are almost ready to load atop the Mullahs missiles within their nosecones. The Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles are renamed from their North Korean origins named No-dong-1 and Ro-dong 1 which were in turn basically renamed from their Soviet designed Scud B with later upgraded missiles being based on the Scud C and Scud D. The Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 have been set to launch reaching Tel Aviv and delivering the warhead for an airburst detonation approximately 650 meters over the greater Tel Aviv metropolitan area. This would make this detonation closely replicate the atomic bombs detonations over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. The accuracy of these warheads will depend greatly on whether they will be spin stabilized before reentry or simply allowed to tumble around their center of gravity upon reentry as the earliest of this variant of missile were designed to do. The reentry capabilities along with the possible use of GPS in the spun reentry advanced warhead having an accuracy of as close as within two-hundred meters and if simply using the tumbling reentry which would not have GPS capability would then drop the accuracy to approximately one kilometer. One does need to take into consideration that like horseshoes, nuclear devices have the quality that closeness counts quite heavily.

 

Iran was known to have had difficulties with their tumbling warheads self-destructing upon reentry. We can expect that this problem was eliminated either through stronger warhead construction or simply by designing warheads to spin upon reentry thus eliminating the problem caused by tumbling while also increasing accuracy, a double bonus. Further, if a Shahab-3 or Zelzal-3 were launched from western Iran, say Tabriz, Iran, then any variant of these missiles would have sufficient range to reach Tel Aviv and the updated version could easily make such a trip and would have sufficient range to be fired from downtown Tehran thus making a big show around such a launch. There are still unanswered questions about the advanced multi-stage missiles which Iran may have developed and their potential range. Such ICBMs would easily be capable of striking within the United States with some estimates placing even Chicago within the limits of the most advanced Iranian multi-stage missiles. It is also known that Russia shared with Iran their plans for a Super EMP device which is claimed to be easily placed atop any Iranian missile and not only having no interference with its range but as it is lighter than most other warheads, including conventional warheads, would actually permit for an increased range. It has been verified that Iran is capable of striking anywhere in Europe up to and including Paris with London just beyond their insured and validated missile capabilities. On the other hand, even should Iran not have yet to developed an actual ICBM capable of striking within the United States, Iran has allies in Central and South Americas who would bring much of the United States well within range though assembly and setting up such a rocket launch would likely be detected well before its launch.

 

The greatest fear of an Iranian strike on the continental United States would come from one of two sources; either the Iranians have developed a multi-stage or possibly a single stage ICBM with sufficient range to cover the distances from Tehran which is 9879 kilometers or 6139 miles or 5334 nautical miles to New York City, 10200 kilometers or 6338 miles or 5507 nautical miles to Washington D.C, 11846 kilometers or 7361 miles or 6396 nautical miles to San Francisco, 10880 kilometers or 6761 miles or 5875 nautical miles to St. Louis and lastly10755 kilometers or 6683 miles or 5807 nautical miles to the furthest point, Seattle, Washington in the northwest. Of course there is the fact that Iran has perfected the ability of launching one of their Shabab-3 or Zelzal-3 missiles from aboard a freighter camouflaged as carrying regular cargo in shipping containers which would place every last part of the United States within easy range and also not allow sufficient time for any coastal cities such as Boston, Baltimore, Washington D.C, New York City, Atlanta, Houston, Los Angeles, San Diego and its Navy Base at Coronado, San Francisco and Seattle to react and implement anti-missile units into position to protect them from such attacks launched from less than fifty miles off the coast as the freighter would simply appear to be heading for the docks to download their cargo and then in a short transformation time become an active missile launching base with perhaps half a dozen or more missiles to attempt to launch at various targets before they were engaged by Air Force, Navy or Army air assets destroying the offending ship.

 

These frightening realities brings us back to the crux of the situation, the Iranian ability to covertly manufacture nuclear warheads for any of these systems and thus bring their mass chants of “Death to America! Death to Israel!” to fruition and by doing so place itself as the leader of the Muslim world, and more importantly placed all the Arab nations in a weakened position with their populations suddenly desiring to join the Shiite leaders of Iran giving up on the apparently weaker Sunni leaders. As we know, nothing succeeds like success and mortally wounding both the United States and Israel would definitely depict Iran as the strong horse, the stallion amongst a herd of neutered geldings. The supposed impossibility is for Iran to successfully conceal at some secret instillation a series of twenty or more cascaded super-sonic centrifuges spinning Uranium-Hexafluoride gas (UF6) with each centrifuge pulling its gas from the central cylinder of the previous centrifuge and spinning the slightly purer UF6 gas which allows the lighter isotope of Uranium 235 (U-235) from the heavier isotope of Uranium 238 (U-238) with each stage of the cascaded centrifuges makes its contribution of stripping away the U-238 spinning it to the sides of the centrifuge while leaving the U-235. Originally the Uranium Ore mined from the ground is made up of over 99% U-238 and mere traces of the desired U-235. The entire negotiations revolved around how Iran could be monitored thus making the production of Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) impossible and easily detectable thus only permitting Iran to enrich their ore to make Uranium that is of a low enrichment no higher than twenty percent and very little of that with much of their Low Enriched Uranium (LEU) limited to five percent or three percent which can be used solely in their reactors and also used in medical procedures which may use enriched Uranium as high as twenty-percent.

 

According to President Obama, there now exists, thanks to United States Secretary of State John Kerry, an agreement which “has reached an historic understanding with Iran which, if fully implemented, will prevent it from a nuclear weapon.” President Obama continued convincingly claiming, “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final comprehensive deal it will make our country, our allies and our world safer.” President Obama literally lit up as he boasted, “Today after many months…we have achieved the framework for…(a) deal, and it is a good deal, a deal that meets our core objectives,” he stipulated that it cuts off every pathway to developing a nuclear weapon. Continuing along I was worried that the American negotiators were going to simply roll over on every point simply to give President Obama a foreign policy achievement which would cover three pathways to prevent Iran attaining nuclear weapons. The first pathway blocked was the Arak Heavy Water reactor where Iran will not be permitted to collect and process the spent rods allowing them to process Plutonium. Iran has also agreed to never build another heavy water facility. The second pathway involved Iran simply only being permitted using one-third of their existing centrifuges, closing its Fordo Plant for the next ten years. Further, Iran must not stockpile materials required for building a nuclear weapon for the next 15 years. They must also neutralize any Uranium making it useless in the manufacture of a nuclear weapon. Iran has theoretically agreed upon a twenty year full inspection routine which is presumably so invasive and thorough that should Iran transgress on any of the former items that the world will know of it long before the Iranians are able to reach building a nuclear weapon. That begs the question as to what if the inspections is where they renege, then the world would be blind to any other forbidden acts or clandestine work towards the manufacture of a weapon.

 

The entire framework depends on Iran permitting free and untethered inspections of their every platform where it is suspected that work towards a nuclear device is progressing. The agreement also depends on Iran being at least a full year away from its breakout point, something where Israel disagrees claiming they have approximately six weeks or less to a breakout point thus making many of the points stressed by President Obama appear optimistic. This so-called framework also depends on the fact that President Obama and the Iranians agree on exactly what each word of terminology actually mean and the definition of every term. This framework is also still months or even years from being an actual agreement and meanwhile the Iranians are refusing to answer direct questions from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), continuing to spin their centrifuges including those at Fordo, and working on any unfinished items on their way to a nuclear weapon. There is many a slip ‘twixt the spoon and the tongue. This has proven to be excessively valid when dealing with the Iranians. They have often come back after agreeing to stipulated terms and explained that what the P5+1 thought some phrase means is not even close to what the Iranians interpreted as the meaning. It is very similar to Princess Bride when the Spaniard, Inigo Montoya, stated to Vizzini, “You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means.” The Iranians have already backtracked when confronted with actual implementation on previous agreements claiming that there must have been an unfortunate misunderstanding which will then entail weeks of straightening out a misunderstanding claimed by Iran and by the time everything has been reworded properly the entire section of the agreement will have been basically neutered and rewritten to favor the Iranians progressing to wholesale production of nuclear weapons. My fears is that in these negotiations that the United States will have proven by the end that they have been completely hoodwinked and made to appear bonkers with Iran getting everything they desired when all is said and done and every paper signed making a furious roar but signifying nothing. The question the world should figure out is who will be the first victim once Iran has nuclear weapons, Israel, the United States or possibly Saudi Arabia or Egypt. That is the question which has the experts completely vexed and unknowing each giving their own expert advice, my not so expert advice is first will be the United States and it will prevent their retaliating while they start frantically attempting to restore the power grid with minimal fatalities allowing Iran a free hand to accomplish whatever their evil little heart’s desire. After taking out the United States from the game, the Iranians will know that they have built the world’s largest deliverable nuclear stockpile and then they will begin to start using them to attain their own ends. When Iran starts down this path using their nuclear devices, then the world will understand true chaos meant to facilitate their ends and opening the world to such chaos in order to bring on the Twelfth Imam. These negotiations are actually Iran buying time while they assemble their nuclear arsenal and plot the best way to maximize the effects and ramifications of their utilizing all of their weapons in order to cement their place as the new hegemonic power in the world. The Iranians, especially their rulers, are set upon returning Iran to the glories and conquests of the entire world as had their forefathers, the Persians. This is also another reason that the Iranians desire to conquer or at least defeat the Americans as they are seen as the new Greek empire because of their governance using so many of the Greek concepts of democracy and republic. The time to start worrying is when the Iranians complete their talking as that means they are done with talking and now believe it is the time for them to act. That will be the time to have your plans ready as the Iranians will be committed to accomplishing theirs and that you can bet on and take it to the bank.

 

Beyond the Cusp