Beyond the Cusp

May 13, 2016

Iran Destroying Sykes-Picot as World in an Israel Panic

Filed under: 1949 Armistice Line,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,al-Qaeda,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arms Transfer,Ayatollahs,Balkans,Bashir al-Assad,Blood Libel,Chemical Weapons,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Covenant,Coverup,Dhimmi,Egypt,Equality,Equality of Mankind,European Governments,European Pressure,Executive Order,Five Books of Moses,Fossil Fuels,France,Hate,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps,IRGC,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic State Forces,Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish State,Jihad,Judea,Kurdish Militias,Leftist Pressures,Light unto the Nations,Mahmoud Abbas,Military Option,Missile Attacks,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Persians,Politics,President Obama Pessing Freeze,President Sisi,Promised Land,Religion,Samaria,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Supreme Leader,Syria,Ten Commandments,Terror,Threat of War,Torah,Uranium Enrichment,Victims,Weapons of Mass Destruction,Western World,WMD,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:28 AM
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France is planning a multi-national convention in order to force a solution on the Arab-Israeli conflict by, if necessary, forcing the formation of a new Arab state they would call Palestine. They would try to do this without any promise from the Arab leadership that this would end the conflict, end the demand for five-million or more Arabs be admitted into Israel swamping the Jewish state thus destroying her, end all demands for destroying Israel in stages and demand more land be relinquished by Israel, or end the violence and terror attacks. France is seeking to gather at least twenty other nations including the United States, European nations and whichever other nations might show any interest with one distinct nation excluded, forbidden might be more accurate. That excluded nation would be Israel as having Israel might actually stress and interject the problems and deficiencies with any plan which demands from Israel everything and asks nothing from the Arab leadership other than their promise to be nice and where accepting an answer of , “we refuse” would be considered an affirmation for proceeding. They would not require the Arabs to recognize a Jewish State, Israel’s right to exist, the freedom of Israeli public to continue to choose their own leadership or even to end terrorism and the launching of rockets into Israel. The Arab Palestinian leadership has already reserved the right to hold military drills with any nations they desire, import weapons from whoever was willing to sell them such including rockets and missiles, import heavy weapons such as main battle tanks and mobile rocket launchers, and develop nuclear weapons and warheads. The Arab Palestinian leadership has promised to endeavor for one item with a steady and consistent inclusion of any and all manner of facilitating overrunning the State of Israel and cleansing all the lands of those who are not Muslims or even judged to be sufficiently Islamic. And the French and their allies will find such only a minor obstacle and soon dismiss all difficulties or complete rejections coming from the Arab leadership as they will simply turn to pressing Israel to take huge risks and make injurious sacrifices entering into an open ended and incomplete treaty where Israel meets final conditions while the Arab side simply marks the occurrence as simply another step towards the eventual elimination of Israel. All of this, while the borders formed by the results of the last time Europe forced their will on the Middle East in the form of Sykes-Picot are dissolving in fire and bloodshed.

 

Meanwhile nobody appears to have learned anything from the Israel complete withdrawal from Gaza and the dangerous results. They all appear to be unable to correlate and equate the lessons from Gaza to the entirety of Judea and Samaria with their holding the high grounds which overlook the beating heart of Israel. The world also appears to be unaware of the disintegration of the Sykes-Picot agreement and the borders drawn up along with everything else resulting from the breakup of the Ottoman Empire apparently remaining calm as the redrawing of the borders from the Austro-Hungarian Empire (see map below), Germanic Empire, the Balkan lands and the rest of Eastern Europe appear to have survived with only minor conflicts thus far and hopefully time will not change this fragile stability. What is frightening is the alliance which appears to have been behind this disintegration and who is the leading player and who simply appeared to take orders and provide cover and facilitate the immobilizing of the world to defend or even relieve the disasters across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) with a blithe disinterest and total disregard. Perhaps a quick summation of these problems might serve us well.

 

Austro-Hungarian Empire

Austro-Hungarian Empire

 

The greatest representation of the world’s disregard and laissez-faire attitude of the world generally and the Western World led from behind, way behind, by the United States, towards the extents of Arab and Muslim nations and their citizens lives, which have all but dissolved into complete disarray and bloodshed, is criminal. The posterchild country for all that had gone wrong has been and will continue for some time to lead the rest is, of course, Syria. As far as functioning governance in Syria there is next to or absolutely no governance and where there may be a semblance of governing, it is done through force of arms and not any other legitimate form. Syria started as protests for Syrian strongman Bashir al-Assad to step down and be replaced with an actually legitimately elected leader. When Bashir al-Assad responded with force, the protesters ended up being replaced by separate and disparate terrorist groups. There were both Shiite and Sunni terror bands descended onto the Syrian countryside attacking the Syrian military forces which remained loyal to Bashir al-Assad as well as one another. The first climactic series of events which threatened to blow the entire Syrian civil war wide open started with the use of chemical weapons on civilians of his nation. These usages of these weapons of mass destruction was a direct challenge of United States President Obama who had threatened that such usage would cross a red line and bring a definitive response from the United States which would affect great consequences. After a couple of debatable usages of chemical weapons where the tests were determined by the White House to have actually been unconforming with the levels required for a clinical determination to be finalized and with a use of chlorine gas being determined not to be a chemical weapon of mass destruction because Chlorine was only an element and the White House had meant a manufactured agent not found naturally in its usable chemical compounds, they stalled even more. It soon became evident that the actually sanctioned nation from the Syrians resorting to gassing its own citizens was the United States. President Putin offered President Obama a way out with an offer to assist in the destruction of all of Bashir al-Assad’s chemical weapons stores. There has been evidence that not all of the compounds were destroyed and that amounts of chemical weapons stores may have been captured by the Islamic State and other terror groups including at least one al-Qaeda aligned group.

 

Another distressing location of failed governance has been Iraq. Here the Shia government, after the premature exit of allied forces, arrested the Sunni high office holders while the remaining Sunni and Kurdish representatives took the hint and fled. This left a core government which ruled solely over the most southern areas of Iraq while the Kurds are holding the North both in Iraq as well as Syria and the Islamic State had settled in the lands between these two groups. The failure in Iraq is troubling for American policy makers and White House communications office as they are tasked with shifting and spinning blame away from the Administration. Astonishing as it now appears, back in early 2010 Vice President Biden stated flat out that Iraq was stable and about to hold open, democratic elections and thus the United States was done and the troops were already scheduled to pull from Iraq. He further claimed that Iraq would very likely prove to be a central point in the legacy of President Obama. Surprisingly, we believe that Vice President Biden was dead on correct, Iraq will be a central policy choice of the Obama Administration and with its current ongoing disaster and growing chaos, well, let it suffice to say that we bet President Obama wishes he had never heard of Iraq. If it were not for the Kurdish fighters in the north, the Islamic State could have concentrated all their efforts southward and likely have taken the entirety of Iraq and be directly threatening Saudi Arabia and Kuwait and their oil fields.

 

 

 

 

Another location of a failure of the United States was in Yemen where the refueling docks which had been used by United States warships are currently no longer under the steady and complete control of the former government which was friendly with the West while the Houthi are threatening to greatly expand their territory and al-Qaeda was holding the southern end of the nation. The existing shipyards and fueling stations utilized by United States Navy are now in questioning hands making their utilization questionable at best. This is also an ongoing confrontation which, as far as we are able to gauge, with the regular government on the short end of the deal more often retreating than reclaiming lands lost to the Houthis. There is also sporadic violence in Lebanon as well with the largest contingent of Lebanese Hezballah militiamen are fighting alongside al-Assad’s forces in Syria. The point of interest which will require continued attention to detail are the actions of Iran in each of these national tragedies and is also sometimes working with Hamas and has shown signs of hoping to gain influence with Mahmoud Abbas, the Arab Palestinian Authority or at the least of Fatah directly or even the Palestinian Liberation Organization.

 

We need to understand a few realities about Iran, its topography, population distribution and political philosophy. Iran is split by a mountain range stretching from the north to the south running about one fifth of the way in from the western border. This range acts as a defensive barrier at the western part of the nation and also marks the divide between the more populous Persians in the center and east while the Arabs reside in the western edges. The oil fields are also in the west beyond the mountains. Iran is a Shiite nation run by the Supreme Leader, a cleric who is virtually all powerful and with the generals of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) run the nation partially through threats, intimidation, fear and some sense by the people that they mean every threat they make. The Iranian people are well educated and have many who receive high level degrees in the hard sciences in American, British and European universities. They believe that Shia Islam should be supreme in all of Islam and those who are not Shiites are apostates or idolaters depending on the day of the week, hour of the day and number of captives to be judged. Well, right, it is not that bad, yet. The Persian Iranian have no great love of the Arab people believing them to be lesser uneducated barbarians who are barely worth using for manual labor and are only good for murdering non-Muslims, especially Jews and Americans. The Persian Iranians who mostly run Iran desire to rule the Middle East as well as finally settle the Arab (Islamic) Israeli (Jewish) conflict. Their reason is they desire to reestablish their Persian Empire and more plus see themselves as the new and original Aryans. They even renamed their country in 1935 from Persia to Iran which means Aryan. They also believe that they should be the real and only true rulers of the world and are willing to take a thousand years to conquer the planet and convert every last soul to Islam, Shiite Islam, or return that soul to Allah for judgement and eternal damnation.

 

Black Triangle of Oil Wealth Containing Over Half the Known World’s Oil and Natural Gas Supply

Black Triangle of Oil Wealth
Containing Over Half the Known
World’s Oil and Natural Gas Supply

 

Currently there is something the Arabs control that the Persians desire to control, the quarter of the oil which is the Black Triangle. This is the area (see map above) where all of the Middle East oil wealth, or at least very much of the Middle East oil and gas reserves, exist in this triangle. The triangle currently sits on lands stretching in the northwest in Turkey and Syria continues down through Iraq, Kuwait, into Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Qatar, and western-most Iran. With the Black Triangle existing almost exclusively in Arab lands and the levels traditionally of mistrust between the two peoples, Iran knew gaining control of the wealth of the Middle East was not going to be easy. The first impediment was that the majority of the Arabs were Sunni and not Shia. Fortunately the Shia ruled Syria at the beginning of the Iranian situation, Iraq had a predominance of Shiite Muslims and Saudi Arabia and the remainder were the problem one could and should put off for now. The real challenge was how to conquer the Arab world despite being vastly outnumbered. Well, remember that it was the Persians who invented chess.

 

The one split in the population which was as wide as the Grand Canyon was the Shiite-Sunni divide. This split had driven wars over the centuries. Iran has begun to use it once again and to great prevail. Iran has neutered Turkey by charm and guile and has promised Egypt in return for the same, peace in our time, and knows that Saudi Arabia who is hypersensitive when other people’s business encroaches on them or their protectorates so they play it close to the vest but one should still not press their luck. These are the playing fields. Syria promised the easiest place to pick a side and keep it as viable and oddly enough, the most vital place if Iran was going to keep open its crescent to the Mediterranean Sea. Both Iraq and Syria have proven a problem that with continued carnage would continue to serve the Iranian machine. As long as the problems scared the Europeans and the United States remained standing off in the distance, then Iran could continue her march to her goal. The triangle was currently broken into segments which nobody truly knew who owned what at the end of the day. Still, each day somehow was unable to swing the attentions of the Western World from their main obsession, what had Israel done which could be condemned today. Iran marches on across the Middle East maiming and murdering but nobody cared, but should Israel harm the hair on the head of a single Palestinian and war crimes tribunals are called into session. A war in Syria had murdered millions, but wait, Abbas has accused Israel of building a deck onto a Jewish house, the deck must be destroyed unless Israel should claim all the land by building decks onto settlements. Millions of refugees are fleeing Syria, but that does not matter unless there is a way to make them the problem of Israel. The Islamic State is destroying precious artifacts which are irreplaceable and destroying world heritage sites, wait, world heritage sites, those can be granted to the Palestinian State of the future just so they are never allowed Israel or the Jews to claim. Of course every site in the Holy Lands, be they Hebrew or Christian, they can be used to further the Palestinian claim as the indigenous peoples if only we grant them every last site. This is the picture of a world gone mad.

 

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

This is the desired and long sought Iranian Shiite Crescent across the Middle East reaching from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea after Islamic State Defeat and Iran Surge Retaking Syria for Bashir al-Assad with Hezballah retaining their iron-fist control over Lebanon and the Iraqi Shiites retaining their hold on the southern half of Iraq. This could very well be the starting positions for a final World War resulting in exchanges of nuclear weapons before the end is reached. This map also depicts the areas bordering the Iranian influence which could become the future red lines and the trip wire for a horrific conflagration, exactly what the Twelvers desire to bring back the Twelfth Imam and the Islamic Messiah who will lead them to finally realize their destiny of world conquest. Despite what many in the West view as an outdated and dead idea, the Iranian leadership dreams of world conquest and desire to that end.

 

Iran had a simple plan, bleed the Arab world dry and then simple blow the empty husks away and claim the prize. Pit one against the other, the Sunni against the Shia, both against the Kurds and all the while making sure that none triumphed who the Iranians did not control. The wars allowed Iran free access to southern Shia Iran and into the cauldron that was Syria with their old puppet al-Assad. Meanwhile they earned points with the Muslim Brotherhood though many found such so confusing as they were Sunni, how could their friendship help Iran? Well, they are the pipeline to Hamas and that allows for Iran to foment another crisis for Israel and for the world to worry over and conduct more inquiries. Iran knows the longer inquiries into the presumed sins of Israel continue, the longer they can play their bloody game of Arabic genocidal conflict. Who benefits from the war in Syria, the conflict in Iraq and the threats to Sisi in Egypt? At first glance one is tempted to say nobody and that is the obvious response. But looking deeper, and there is a story line here which reads that the Arab world must be set against itself, whenever there is the first inkling that the world is starting to understand, then some front must be agitated against Israel as a distraction.

 

Today the latest crisis is whether or not the United States will join the French initiative and give it weight. Why is this a story? It is a story because the French initiative which is a guaranteed non-starter as even Abbas will refuse to accept any peace as he needs the conflict in order to continue the money trains carrying billion and trillions of guilt monies pouring into his coffers far beyond any credible need. Will anybody ever do an investigation as to where the treasures poured into the Arab Palestinian cause flow to and for what purposes are it used? Such is as unlikely as is anybody realizing that Iran is sowing discontent and violence across the Arab Middle East simply to gain advantage and eventually form a greater Iran across their crescent and encompassing all the Middle East oil fields. Are they really that blind that they refuse to see? They will sit up and take notice once Iran controls the spigots to the Middle Eastern oil and turns the flow to Europe off. When Iran then demands five-hundred dollar a barrel oil as winter approaches and Europe faces freezing to death slowly or paying the price, the world will sit up and notice when another world war appears around the corner and this time the enemy holds one quarter of the world’s oil and all the nuclear weapons they could have built in a couple of decades.

 

And when numerous European capital cities lie as radioactive smoldering ruins, these nations will demand yet another panel to discern how all this is Israel’s fault. Europe is facing a slow death at the hands of refugees caused by Iran yet cannot escape their visceral hatred of Israel. Europe sits at the front of a crisis which they will not survive should Iranian schemes continue and they take control of the Saudi and Arabian Peninsula oil fields in addition to those they already control yet they obsess over Israel. Iran is quietly producing nuclear weapons for use against the United States, Europe and the Western world but the French are calling for a meeting of as many nations as are willing to force another failed state onto the Middle East map simply because this one guarantees the death of Israel. Wake up before it is too late. Israel poses no threat to any of you and simply desires to live in the region promised her and allow the rest of you to go your own path. Leave Israel be and tackle the real problems, but no, we understand, we are the Jews amongst the nations and as such you are hardwired to obsess over Israel. It is Israel, has always been Israel and will always be Israel and the Jews; otherwise we might go an entire generation without some fool rising up against us only to be destroyed. Why has the world never realized that obsessing over Israel and the Jews only brings ruination down upon your houses. Look at the history; it is not that difficult to see. All those kingdoms are vanished or soon to be and we are still vibrant and the leading force to bring light and invention into the world. We brought the world so much and ask nothing but to be let alone to continue to serve all mankind, but instead you and those before you decide that we must be crushed. Why? We are willing to bet that none amongst you can come up with an honest and real answer other than we are Jews. And you talk every day about racial hatred, Islamophobia, class warfare, the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer but never does one of you ask why there is still anti-Semitism and it is allowed throughout your world and your history and all the Jew ever did was give you the Ten Commandments, the idea a ruler should not enrich themselves on the backs of their people, the concept of a fair trial, the weekend, bar-b-que, and a moral and just society. We understand that the world may desire to continue after the model first attempted to be the framework for a society used by Sodom and Gomorrah and such is your choice, but please, for once just leave Israel alone, allow our children and people to live here in peace even if only here. Try it for a century or two and see how you like it. We’ll behave, we promise. Then, if you desire such, we will attempt to show the world a better way. Until them can we develop miracles to share with you in peace. Imagine what we would have invented if we were not constantly being warred against in one form or another by almost all the nations of mankind? Let us have peace as we use our word for peace as our greeting and parting thought as we simply say, Shalom.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 6, 2015

How Did This Mess Get Started

Filed under: Absolutism,Act of War,Administration,Afghanistan,Alexander the Great,Amalekites,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab World,Armed Services,Article Five,Ba'al,Babylon,Balanced Budget,Balkans,Bible,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Blue Water Navy,Britain,Cabinet,Cairo,Cairo Speech,Calaphate,Caliphate,China,Chinese Pressure,Civilization,Colonial Possession,Commander in Cheif,Conflict Avoidnce,Consequences,Coverup,Crimea,Czarist Russia,Czech Republic,Demolitions,Dictator,Ditherer in Chief,Economic Independence,Economy,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Euro,Euro Zone,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Financial Crisis,France,GDP,German Pressure,Golden Age of Islam,Government,Greece,Hate,History,Holy Roman Army,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Iran,Iraq,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamist,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jobs,Keynesian Economics,Kurdistan,Kurds,Leftist Pressures,Libya,Military Council,Military Intervention,Mongol Hordes,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,NATO,Nazi,Non Binding Resolution,Obama,Old Testament,Ottoman Empire,Ottoman Empire,Panic Policies,Peace Process,Persians,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,President Vladimir Putin,Pressure by Egyptian People,Prime Minister,Regulations,Roman Empire,Russia,Russian Military,Russian Pressure,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Shared Currency,Shiite,Socialism,South China Sea,Soviet Union,State Department,Submission,Sunni,Sykes-Picot,Syria,Threat of War,Threat of War,Threat to Israel,Tribe,Two Millennia of Exile,Ukraine,Unemployment,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Upgraded Military Capabilities,US Air Force,US Army,US Marines,US Navy,Vlad the Invader,War,Warsaw Pact,Wealth,Weapons of Mass Destruction,World Opinion,World Pressures,World War I,World War II,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 3:05 AM
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Looking at the world around us one has to wonder how it all got into the horrible state of affairs. There had to be a lynchpin which started the unraveling, an actual starting point which we can trace everything back to and find the culprit who made that initial error, mistake in judgement. But in order to do that one has to decide which of the unravellings we should start with as there are so many to choose from. There is Putin, or as we like to call him, Vlad the Invader (our original reference recently stolen by a Fox News commentator the erudite pontificator), who has shaken up parts of Central Asia and Eurasia and is threatening Eastern Europe, or at least there are some former nations swallowed by the Iron Curtain of the Soviet Union; there is China who apart from building a blue water navy with which not only to challenge the United States Naval hegemony of the seas, a privilege formerly owned by the British, but are also building Islands in order to cement her claims to the vast South China Sea and thus control or divert much of the sea lane traffic from the Indian Ocean in and out of the Pacific Ocean; there is the financial problems in Europe threatening the stability of the European Union and the adoption of one currency with the Euro; and the final and greatest roiling and boiling cauldron, the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA). There may be other problems out there but these are the most prevalent and easily identifiable.

 

Let us start with the easiest of these, the financial meltdown in Europe. This problem was a situation just waiting to happen as soon as the most disparate economic nations decided to adopt the same currency unit without permitting a central planning committee to set their financial and economic planning and other such decisions in-line with each other. There was absolutely no way the less productive economies of such nations as Spain, Greece and Portugal had any hope of paralleling the productivity, GDP and economic output of a France, Britain or Germany. Additionally, adding the former Warsaw Pact nations probably sparked an even more divergent economic growth rate as nations such as Poland, the Czech Republic, and others plus the reuniting of Germany allowing the already dominant economy to also feast on the same rebuilding and economic recovery from the less efficient economic model of central planning to a market driven economy which granted these nations a greatly exaggerated GDP during their basically playing catch-up with the rest of Europe and becoming modernized economies. Thus the Euro was a pipe dream which probably had hoped that through the singular monetary unit, the Euro, would lead to a centralizing of economic planning being turned over to the European Union to plan these different economies as if they were a single unit. That was highly unlikely as that would have spelled the demise of the nation states and rendered them merely states in the continental nation of the European Union. What the European Union bureaucrats were seeking was a situation very similar to a former economic model using the Union name, the Soviet Union, replacing Moscow with Brussels and otherwise retaining that centralized, top down dictatorial form of economic planning. The hope of having all the European nations of the European Union surrender that much power to centralized governance was an impossible and thankfully unthinkable centralization of power. This became first indicated when Great Britain took a vote of the people on whether or not to adopt the Euro and the people were clearly heard to say not without losing to an invading army first, otherwise reported as a resounding no and Great Britain retained the Pound but with time would accept the Euro but it would change in buying power as it performed against the Pound. The British model of accepting the Euro while retaining their own currency would very likely have been a far better solution considering what we know now. By allowing each nation their own currency while having them also accept the Euro as legal tender the individual national economic planning would have reflected in their national currency which could slide against the Euro while still having an exchange rate at which the Euro would have an established buying power. This way Greece could remain Greece and Germany could march to their own economic tune and both nations would accept the Euro but their economy would be reflected in the exchange rate which would be set in Brussels. That would provide each nation with its economic freedoms while granting the central control freaks in Brussels their power in determining the value of the Euro to the individual currencies.

 

Next, let us take Vlad the Invader and resurgent Russia. Here the answer is simple; things are as they were inevitably meant to be. Russia has always had that appetite to chew on and swallow the smaller nations around her and some more so than others. Georgia and the Ukraine both fall into the more so than others category. Eventually there would have come along a strong and imperialist charismatic leader, instead we got a shirtless man experiencing a middle age crisis and owning a Napoléon complex likely due to the shared attribute of being of diminutive size also known as vertically challenged. Thus we have Vlad the Invader slowly but inexorably making advances which could have been potentially limited in the Ukraine to the Crimea but there would have been no stopping Putin’s appetite for conquest short of tempting his readiness for war by admitting the Ukraine and any other Warsaw Pact nation into NATO as well as the European Union. Of course this would have had the effect of making any of these moves by Russia on its neighboring countries, or as Vlad sees these nations being simply escaped provinces to be reclaimed, and thus pushing NATO or the weaker European Union into backing their mutual self-defense claims of, to quote an oldie but still a goodie, their all for one and one for all defensive agreements contained in both the European Union and especially NATO. So this can be traced back to Putin’s training as a KGB agent merging with his Napoléon complex plus his nationalistic and simplistic view that Russia was dealt a cruel and unfair blow with the, as he sees it, calamitous and most disastrous and lamentable event of the twentieth century and that he was the individual given the extraordinary and heaven ordained duty to rebuild Russia to her full and former glory. As far as others fearing Russia, especially in that neighborhood, Vlad the Invader has succeeded in spades.

 

China is another historical hegemonic power in the Pacific Ocean or at least the western shores of the Pacific Ocean and at times the Indian Ocean as well. One has to remember that China used to have regular wars with the other great power of Asia, India, back when simple people power was a determining factor and has only in recent history run astride of hard times. Historically China has either been the regional power controlling all she could survey or China was broken into separate mini-states which often warred with each other thus diminishing their powers. The only other situation was when China was overrun or controlled by outside influences and she was in a slow but constant state of regaining her independence and eventually sovereignty over her invaders. China has been and remains the slow and patient survivor and eventual victor which one need but wait to see her resurgence. China has a long history of simply refusing to be cowed or defeated, merely witnessing a temporary inconvenience. China has relied on the winds of change always knowing that no matter what the calamity, be it outside invaders or internal misrule, everything changes and change is the one criteria which can be relied upon to render all things dust. China realizes that there are time when you are riding the crest of the wave and time when the wave has crashed down upon you and whichever end of that wave you find yourself, you will eventually find yourself at the other extreme so enjoy the best of times and remember them as a goal in the worst of times. For China time has been her greatest ally and greatest enemy but she also knows that time is her greatest weapon. China will rise and fall just as the ocean tides, just on a much longer cycle.

 

Then there is the Extended Middle East which incorporates the traditional Middle East and North Africa and often called MENA. We like Extended Middle East better. This area has always been a cauldron of swirling fates. One need do no more than read the Bible, the Old Testament, to realize the great swings of fate for all who resided in this area. There have been great empires which rose from next to nothing to greatness only to be blown away like the desert sands. Some of these empires blew away so completely that one is unable to find their descendants as it is as if they were snatched from the Earth itself. Probably the strangest of stories is the people of the Bible who only recently returned to their historic, ancient lands, Israel. However, this return has become the central story and burdened with the weight of responsibility for all the unrest anywhere on the globe and particularly throughout the Extended Middle East. Despite there being no actual or traceable root to the great turmoil destroying and potentially redrawing the map of the Extended Middle East to Israel, that has not prevented many from historians to political pundits to media reporters and even to governments and their agencies such as the United States Department of State from laying all of the blame at Israel’s doorstep.

 

The turmoil in the central Middle East is nothing new as it is the control point for all trade historically between three massive and divergent continents; Africa, Europe and Asia. This was the locations of a city-state which had no viable crop or natural resource and was hidden away behind a narrow splitting in a rock face and the city was entirely built into another rock face which had an outer clearing protected by tall rock walls and survived purely on trade and taking a percentage of all transactions. The city was Petra which finally and literally fell out of use after an earthquake made its further use untenable. But Petra was an indication on exactly how important the areas of the Middle East were for trade between the three continents. Tracing history in this area you find such names as Egypt, Hittite, Assyrian, Babylonian, Philistines, Minoans, Canaanites who worshipped such gods as Moloch and Baal, Persians and entering the more modern age, the Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Ottomans and finally the French and British. Where to trace back the turmoil and near constant warfare of the Middle East, perhaps to Cain and Abel and the earliest recorded use of a rock as a tool of war. That might be a stretch but the earliest conflict likely predates writing by a sufficient amount of time that it also ceased being a part of the oral history and never got recorded just as the actual traceable location of Atlantis was never given (Pillars of Hercules and out in the great waters, like that helps).

 

But the recent difficulties and intermitted warfare both between nations and internal to nations is traceable to a particular intentional act meant to create just such internal strife and potentially these external wars in order to prevent the area from ever again uniting into the one promise the French and British had given to particular Arab tribal, nations and even clan leaders to persuade them into assisting them in their efforts against the Ottoman Empire during World War I, the reestablishment of the Caliphate, meaning the areas of the Ottoman Empire intact as a singular entity, and leaving these leaders as the ruling council and the ones who would choose the new Caliph. Instead, this promise was not only shattered but the lines drawn after World War I in both the Middle East and rest of the Ottoman Empire as well as the Austria Hungarian Empire in order to prevent there ever being a reunification thus preventing these powers from becoming preeminent and capable of starting the next conflagration. The division of the Austro-Hungarian Empire mostly achieved its purpose and the next war where it did arise out of Germany which was generally a previous part of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and had only in the late 1800s gained its unified formation independent of outside control but not necessarily free of their influences thus leading to the rise of Adolph Hitler and the Nazi efforts and Word War II. But in the Middle East we had the Sykes–Picot Agreement which made completely arbitrary borders without, or possibly intentionally ignoring, tribal lines and clans or any of the natural political alignments often splitting lands as in the case of the Kurds; who also were promised their own nation as were the Jews in separate agreements but instead the Kurdish lands were divided and became parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran; making each nation internally unstable. Iraq is probably the most well-known of these divisions which in the case of Iraq divided the lands such that the Shiites were predominant in the south, the Sunni predominant in the center and the Kurds predominant in the north. This forced each of these imaginary nations to eventually find that the only way to restore and keep the peace was the rise of a militant strongman willing to impose peace by force of arms such as was the case under Saddam Hussein. Say whatever you like about Saddam Hussein such as he was a butcher, a murderer and a hard tyrant with an iron fist, he kept Iraq from devolving into internecine warfare such as we are witnessing today.

 

The rest of the turmoil which we are suffering through today may have had a recent triggering event, namely the Cairo speech by United States President Barack Obama and his foreign policy which was centered around his campaign promise to end the wars and bring the troops home. Unfortunately for the majority of the people turned victims in the Extended Middle East, President Obama pulled all of the United States military personnel from both Afghanistan and Iraq prematurely as neither nation had developed the experience of the new governance nor the military ability to resist disorder while, especially in Iraq, the suppressed majority had some real and serious issues and grudges to settle with the minority who had ruled the nation through oppressions and they were out to get that revenge which tore the nation apart making it ripe for a force such as ISIS to tear into its midsection and even gain some support from the people there. The Sykes–Picot Agreement was designed to make the Middle East in particular and the Extender Middle East by division of who controlled what area which became independent nations with the arbitrary borders established by their respective colonizers, left the entirety of these areas as a tinder box simply waiting for that spark and it was likely the Cairo Speech and the enthusiastic attempt after the Tunisian vegetable cart vendor’s self-immolation and subsequent uprising in Tunisia being used as the trigger for President Obama’s attempt to redraw the Middle East around granting the Muslim Brotherhood preeminence over the region sharing control with Iran as the hegemon in the east and the Muslim Brotherhood in the west. Even had this plan succeeded it would have only set up a different state of conflict but this time with two very strong entities making for an even potentially greater struggle. The war right now is contained for the most part to the Greater Syrian conflict which includes ISIS and Iraq and the Iranian intervention, and the Egyptian struggle internally for the most part with the Egyptian military wresting control from the Muslim Brotherhood. The trouble in Libya is tribal and most likely to remain in Libya unless ISIS gets a firm and significant foothold and then there will be trouble as ISIS then moves to take all of Libya and begins their spread into Tunisia, Egypt and Algeria, but especially Egypt. History will likely eventually lay the blame for the current explosion of unrest and open warfare in the Extended Middle East to the United States meddling and doing so by proxy removing their personnel, especially military, from the Extended Middle East and stirring the pot so to speak and hoping for the best. They failed, or should we simply say the truth, President Obama really had no idea what he was attempting and misunderstood the players and nearly everything in the Middle East and almost every other foreign affairs which he has chosen action or inaction. Incompetence beyond measure being wielded by a self-indulgent, uninformed, narcissist with delusions of competence and wisdom that produces a boondoggle that only complete ineptitude, ignorance and delusions of grandeur could produce. I am sure there are other adjectives which would apply but for the sake of brevity shall we coin a new phrase and call such complete ineffectiveness which produces great conflagrations as doing an Obamy.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

April 8, 2015

The Iran Framework Controversies and Forbidden Areas

 

The reports, statements, coverages, and interviews of the separate teams of the United States and Iranian teams and political leaders about the terms derived from the Framework wording differ by a little more than a measure of degrees and are approaching diametric opposites. One might question how such difference between interpretations could ever exist from the exact same set of words which they had agreed to and both surmised meant something similar to their adversaries on the other side of the table. The truth turns out to be one of the most damning realities of the entire fiasco this far as the English version and the Farsi barely resemble each other and the French and European Union foreign policy head Federica Mogherini versions borderline being meaningless and contradictory terminology, perhaps because they were written in the original international political language, French. How translations from presumably identical base text can become so completely different may be something apparently impossible, but then these translations are being produced by the finest spin doctors on the planet that money can buy. We need to remember that the renditions we are hearing have all been filtered through different lenses and bounced off opposing mirrors and then twisted and rotated until they represent exactly what each side promised their public would be the result of the negotiations proving their mastery of the situation. Of course this leads to another problem which will simply serve to muddy the water further as each source reporting on the results will be, thanks to the international reach of media, using the source text from whichever result be it the confused and meaningless French to the Farsi or the English version presented in the United States when making their case that the Framework represents exactly what they had predicted.

 

So, what is it we can actually take from these various versions of the Framework? Initially we know we can take virtually any reading about any particular area of the Iranian nuclear program, the international sanctions and all the threats, promises, innuendoes and ramifications from every last talking head, politician, national leader and individual negotiator cares to put on the Framework. Our interpretation of the Framework is that it is an amorphous, incoherent, ambiguous and vague congruence of terms resembling a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. The Framework in the form explained by both the United States President’s Administration and the representatives of the Supreme Leader in Iran will both be cast aside and the full fury fur-ball of unrestrained political recriminations immediately followed by declarations decrying the misinterpretations of their opposing interpretations of the Framework which will quickly lead to a restart from square-one and discarding all interpretations of the Framework as they will all prove unacceptable by one side, the other or both. The probability that a final agreement will be possible by the June 30th deadline depends on what year you place at the end, 2015 makes that highly doubtful and any year other than that we all had best hope are just as ridiculous. The question becomes what will be the reaction when the lack of any possibility of reaching a mutually agreeable settlement becomes unavoidable. Our expectation is that Iran does not even begin to desire any agreement which will limit their desires for becoming the next nuclear armed nation thus they have no requirement to reach any agreement beyond the level of sanctions being enforced or any other of the potential ramifications of refusing to bend and reach an accord. President Obama has already revealed his desired action is lowering the level of sanctions by releasing some of the sanctions over the Iranian economy thus enticing Iran over ramping up sanctions to force Iran to comply or face economic ruin. By making his method enticement over punishment, Iran has no fear that President Obama will make things more difficult for their intransigence but rather will relieve the pressures of the sanctions as a reward for future Iranian compliance. By using the carrot over the stick, President Obama has encouraged at the very least an initial rejection of even the most generous of conditions waiting for the release of sanctions before having to agree to an offer and then demanding additional sanctions be release upon agreement. This has rewarded Iran already to a point where the present sanctions are not sufficient to apply economic pressures where the government is in any peril of a revolt by the people. Even currently the inspection regime attempting to be executed by the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) is minimal and nowhere near being beyond all reasonable expectations yet the Iranians have refused many of their demands for explanations of previous potential military research and actions and the IAEA also suspects that the Iranians have recently opened an unannounced facility near Tehran deep underground beneath existing buildings so as to disguise the operations and provide an unobservable entrance equipped with their most modern centrifuges operating in cascades producing enriched uranium outside of any restrictions as reported by the same anti-regime sources who originally reported the Iranian nuclear program to the world.

 

Should this new report ever become verified it then begs an even bigger question, what should the United States demand from Iran due to their attempted intrigues? We all probably read reports or actually listened to videos or seen President Obama make his announcement that “all options remain on the table including the military option.” We have often debated what exactly that statement means and what we can expect. We have reached one singular point of agreement that the always mentioned military option which is stressed to be on the table is mentioned so prominently because it will never ever be taken from its position on the table by President Obama. It is very possible that no United States President in the foreseeable future could in-gather sufficient popular public support to permit taking the military option off the table and implement it. Then we often hear that at the first hint that the Iranians have transgressed any of the terms of the agreements, assuming one is ever formed and unilaterally accepted, the sanctions which had been terminated could be immediately reinstituted and applied pressing Iran to immediately come back into compliance or pay the continued penalty. This is considered unlikely for the duration of the Obama Presidency and will be dependent on who wins the elections in 2016 who will decide what should be done sanctions wise concerning any Iranian refusal to comply completely with any agreement reached during the upcoming negotiations. A lot depends on what the final draft of any agreement stipulates and even further, what the Iranians agree it stipulates, after all everything does depend on what the meaning of is, is; not to mentions the other words such as enrichment, centrifuges, cascade, modern, fastest, most, advanced, least and every word or phrase within the agreement. This problem has been made excessively evidenced by the seemingly opposite definitions to the agreement when it was translated into French (ambiguous), Farsi (near complete freedom to continue full speed with their program and immediate end to all sanctions and no necessary inspections routine) and English (shuttering of two-thirds of centrifuges, Arak reactor neutered, solely old centrifuge use, strict inspection routine and who knows whatever other restrictions). If each side is left to their own translations and thus their own conditions then why are there scheduled additional negotiations? Apart from permitting each side to report their own interpretations of the terms, there are numerous other reasons for simply putting off the remainder of the negotiations indefinitely as neither side is regarding the talks as a serious negotiation to try and prevent Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. The Iranians are set on developing and building nuclear weapons capability and a delivery system making it an equal or superior to any other nuclear power in the world and President Obama is intent on putting off any Iranian actions using nuclear weapons until at least five years after he has left office making him apparently blameless and thus not interfering with his legacy as the greatest negotiator and international diplomat in history, at least the equal of Neville Chamberlain. Does this mean that Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu is playing the part of Sir Winston Churchill? If so, he had better be ready for the media and a near unending political lynching and denunciations coming from all corner of the globe, but then how much different is this from normal in today’s anti-Israel, anti-Semitic and anti-Zionist filled world. Let the insanity begin, or should we say continue at current pace.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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