Beyond the Cusp

June 17, 2019

The Crux of the Arab-Israel Conflict, Part II

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 12:55 AM
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Click for Part I

 

All the wars in which Israel defender herself, not once was one of the belligerents a nation by the name of Palestine. In all of history there has never been a nation called Palestine. There was a region of a Roman Province called Syria Palaestina. Further. Jerusalem has served as the capital city for only Jewish nations, the initial lands of the Hebrews and when these lands split, Jerusalem became the capital of Judea, from which the term Jews is derived, and after the dissolution and dispersion of the Jewish People by the Romans, Jerusalem has not served as a capital city until Israel was reestablished in 1948. During the nearly two millennia after the Roman dispersion of the Jews and the return of Jews, the lands which today make up Israel were largely a forgotten and abandoned region almost devoid of human inhabitants. This is not our description, it belongs to Mark Twin in his description from his travels abroad in the late 1860’s. The region was then still under Ottoman Rule. Before the Ottomans entered World War I, the regions which is today Israel had last been fought over by Napoleon briefly and before him were the Crusaders after the Caliphate had taken Jerusalem and the Christians attempted to take it back for Christianity and only succeeded temporarily only to lose it again to Islam.

 

Since the Yom Kippur War the Arabs changed their tactics using their invented people, the Palestinians who came into existence in September of 1964 with the KGB and Arab League launching of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). When the PLO came into existence, they made no claim of the Shomron or of Gaza explaining that these were already in Arab Muslim hands and thus were not in need of liberation. What they did claim they would liberate was all of Israel which they were going to then turn over to Jordan. It was not until almost three years after their founding and after the 1967 Six Day War that they began claiming their ancestral homelands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea. This has been their claim since then and is exactly what is meant by the chant heard across Europe and North America at the anti-Israel rallies, “From the river to the sea, Palestine must be free.” Often Mahmoud Abbas is quoted as stating that he only wants the 22% of the lands which belong to his Palestinians. Remember when we told you we would get back to the 22% number, here is where it becomes important. Many will try and claim that Abbas is only referring to the West Bank or it and Gaza. Well, both of these combinations cannot be equal to 22%. The reality is though any combination comes close to 22%, the only true 22% is all the lands west of the Jordan River which are not part of the 78% of the Mandate which is Jordan. Further, if you listen carefully, Abbas often states clearly that he demands 22% of the Mandate. That should be a dead giveaway but many politicians are either idiots, ignorant or stating straight out lies when they claim that Abbas wants peace and just his region within Israel.

 

We have understood that if nothing else would save Israel from its occasional suicidal leaders who agree to the most dangerous peace agreements in order to satisfy the demands for another additional two-state solution, we could always count of Yasser Arafat and then Mahmoud Abbas to refuse every offer. The reason is very simple, there is one demand which must be met or every deal lacking this will be refused, the end of Jews being permitted their own state. Under Islam the Jew is incapable of self-rule and must be cared for by its betters until the time is ripe to demand they convert to the only true religion permitted by Islam on the earth or die if they refuse. While under Islamic protection they are considered Dhimmi and are subject to paying the Jizya. Further, according to Islam, all lands which have ever been ruled by Islam must remain under Islamic rule or be in a state of war with all of Islam. Andalusia is another region which Islam claims which to most people is the Iberian Peninsula, otherwise known as Spain and Portugal. Israel is considered an insult to Islam just by its mere existence. This has been obvious by the number of attempts which have been launched to destroy Israel. Honestly, Israel should never have succeeded in any of her first three wars where Islam attempted her destruction in 1948, 1967 and 1973. Since then the war had changed tactics and uses terrorism and rocket attacks to drive the Jews from the lands. Then there is the demand that the Jews simply return to America and Europe from whence they came. This may be the most disingenuous claim made by the Arabs as they are fully aware that half of the Israeli population came from Arab lands across the Middle East and North Africa as well as Iran when almost 850,000 Jews were forced from their lands where many had resided for over a thousand years after having their wealth stripped and allowed maybe two suitcases in which to pack their belongings, and these were often searched before they were permitted to leave. We have serious doubts that when the Arabs claim the Jews can return to the nations from whence they came that they include their Jews returning to their homes, stores, businesses and regaining all they had lost. Below is a video from the United Nations which takes snippets from the Arab representatives and then contrasts that with the representative from United Nations Watch before the United Nations Human Rights Council. The exchange and the attempt to silence the speaker with a point of order are all quite amusing and the fact that he was permitted to continue was as remarkable as it was surprising. This puts much of the focus where it truly belongs but will never be permitted under the current world in which we reside.

 

 

Israel has accepted several peace proposals all of which have resulted in violence and dead Israelis. Israel removed the IDF and its bases, all intelligence operations and removed almost ten thousand Jews from several communities and even reinterred her dead as had their tombs remained in Gaza, their bodies would have been dug out of the ground and likely burned. The greenhouses Israel left for the Arabs to use were disassembled and their pipes used to make rockets and launchers. Israel in 2000 and in 2008 gave offers of over 90% of the West Bank and land swaps to make up the difference and both of these were refused, one by Arafat and the latter by Abbas. Both Arafat and Abbas were often found to state that the destruction of the Jewish State and an end to the Jews was their minimal demand, but they always stated such in Arabic. Apparently, there is no way that many of the European leaders and the United States Department of State could translate anything stated in Arabic into a language they understand, or they would rather not translate these statements. There is also the threat we hear but which will never be carried out that the Arabs are going to take Israel before the world courts. This will never happen simply because Israel had the first right of claim of the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea by treaty and under Article 80 of the United Nations Charter. The reason there has not been a settlement of the Arab Israeli Conflict is because the Arabs will not accept the existence of Israel. Israel would be quite happy to be granted the stated borders of the Jordan River, Mediterranean Sea, Lebanese border, Egyptian Sinai-Negev border and keeping the Golan Heights for her own security, which with Syria as it is, one can obviously see why. Israel has no desire for empire, though Islam does and sees the entirety of the world as their rightful empire. Israel simply wants to live in the ancient homelands which she was given by Hashem at the conclusion of the Exodus under Moses and the rest under Joshua.

 

There are those who claim that the Jews seek something called a Greater Israel which they state extends from the Euphrates River to the Nile River. This is nothing more than outright lies. There was a time in ancient Israeli history under Kings David and Solomon where there was a Greater Israel. The Biblical description was that the kingdom reached from the Euphrates River to the River of Egypt. The Euphrates was touched at a northern point in what is today Syria and the River of Egypt is today called the Wadi of Egypt as the river has dried out, and it does not refer to the Nile River. Greater Israel is a historic reference and had no reality or application today except to attempt to paint Israel as an aggressor nation and to blame Israel for every time which the Arab world attempted to wipe her off the map. Apparently, the next attempt is not to arise from an Arab country but from Persia, otherwise known as Iran. This does not for a moment mean that the Arabs are done with attacking Israel as they will continue with their terror warfare. Finally, the Arab refugee problem is an Arab problem as they are the descendants of the 675,000 Arabs who became homeless after the 1948 War by the Arabs in their attempt to destroy Israel at her birth. Israel took in far more Jews and never placed them in refugee camps for generations, they accepted them as the brothers and sisters they were and they are now contributing members of Israeli society.

 

Now the world awaits the Trump Peace Plan known as the Deal of the Century. Mahmoud Abbas has already turned it down casting it as Trump’s Zionist inspired anti-Palestinian plan. This has been his position for the past two years despite his never having seen the plan. Is his claim valid? We cannot say as we have not been privileged to see the plan either. Some have claimed, who also have not seen the plan, that Trump will attempt to bribe the Arab Palestinians with a new home and possibly cash and a job if only they will relocate outside of Israel. As we stated, if this is President Trump’s plan, we have one simple question. How in the world does President Trump plan on extracting the Arab Palestinians from their current rulers, who would rather kill them than allow them to leave, without invading these regions and imposing his plan? Even were Trump able to do such a plan with the Arab Palestinians in the Shomron, under Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, no plan short of removal of the Iranian backed terrorist forces in Gaza will allow these people to relocate. Both Hamas and Islamic Jihad would respond to whatever the Iranian leadership demanded from them and from what we have seen of how Iran treats internal dissent; it would be an ugly sight of oppressive genocidal rule using an iron fist to prevent the people from serving their own interests. We have witnessed how Hamas and Islamic Jihad are ruthless as they attempt to burn as much of Israel to the ground and are now launching kites with pretty bottles containing poison attempting to murder young children in Israel. Their previous attempt with toys tied to explosive charges failed to entice any victims as the parents warned their children and the children actually listened and obeyed. Israel only wants what the world promised back in 1920, no more and no less. Israel will accept the Jordan River, Golan Heights and the remainder of our borders as they exist. Gaza can remain what it has become as long as they end their attacks with balloons, kites, incendiaries, rockets, mortars or any other form of malicious acts. But if Israel allows Gaza to remain independent, as we did forgo our claim so without the world accepting our reacquiring Gaza, which Europe and the United Nations would never bring themselves to do, Gaza is actually an independent nation of a sort which is ruled by terrorist gangs, like Somalia has been ruled. In exchange for such recognition, Gaza must understand that any form of attack on Israel will be considered an act of war. A series of such acts will bring destruction down upon those responsible. To be honest, there are two Gazas, the one where the Hamas and Islamic Jihad elite and their wealthy friends reside and the one where they wage war from with total disregard for their own people.

 

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

The Two Gazas with One Pristine and the Other Ravaged

 

Israel has spent most of their efforts destroying the rocket launchers and tunnel systems. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have placed these regularly within working-class neighborhoods, most often amongst or atop apartment buildings. Next to schools and mosques, near hotels where media stay, and virtually anywhere it could cause casualties they can put on display for the media. Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been proven to use human shields with a frequency which implies it is a method used intentionally. For Hamas and Islamic Jihad any dead Gazan is a potential Israeli war crime no matter who caused their death. In the recent rocket assaults out of Gaza, the world media immediately repeated the Hamas charge that Israeli strikes had killed a pregnant woman and her accompanying child which Israel denied and in the end it turns out that they were killed by a misfired Islamic Jihad rocket. This was far from the first time such has occurred with the most infamous being the al-Dura case. Israel celebrates life, and we do so in everything we do including attempting to cause as few unintended casualties as possible while Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian Authority proudly assert their adoration and love of death. Judaism instructs its adherents to live their earthly existence to the best as they are able with the six-hundred-thirteen commandments of the Torah as our guide with any afterlife as something which comes hopefully after a long and fruitful life. Islam degrades life and puts their expressions into an afterlife which is a refuge from earthly existence which is described as brutal and almost worthless while the afterlife can be a place of flowing streams, endless wine, green grass, and should one die fighting for Allah there are the seventy-two perpetual virgins. Judaism does not even promise a body in the afterlife, thus, no guaranteed virgins for Jews.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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June 13, 2019

The Palestinian Peace and Leadership Dilemma

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:07 AM
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There is a simple reason behind all the reasons and all the difficulties and all the problems concerning the Palestinian Arabs and their respective societies. The first problem which strikes one is it is a matter of the leadership. But even they are trapped by their own avarice, greediness, self-professed greatness and simple lack of concern for those they rule. But their problem is also one of a cause divided and this is where we will begin. The divide is deeper than Palestinian Authority (Fatah) against Hamas with Islamic Jihad. The divide exists amongst the people who speak slightly different dialects of Arabic. The ones in the Shomron (West Bank) speak a variant of Jordanian dialect with a mix of Iraqi and Syrian included while in Gaza they have a more Egyptian dialect. The two groups are genealogically separate as well. This is part of the reason that the two groups’ societies react differently when it comes to violence against Israel. The one ruled by the Palestinian Authority look at their difficulty as a political problem where they need to force Israel to recognize their dreams of statehood, a dream which mostly disappears once one of them is outside their community completely and integrated into a new community and a normal life. The Arab Palestinians in Gaza are largely Egyptians who have become caught up in the Hamas and Islamic Jihad contempt for Israel in general and the Jewish People in particular. They are more prone to violence and mass demonstrations. They have bought into the Hamas revolutionary story and believe that Hamas will lead them to a victory over Israel and they will conquer Israel and take its wealth for themselves. What has been kept as a secret and not expounded upon often is that the two groups of people do not particularly even like one another. There exists no brotherly love or desire for unity between the two populations. Of course, if their governments ever agreed upon merging, they would merge but the two populations would remain largely separate.

 

Then there is the problem of money, and it is not the lack of money that is the problem. Mahmoud Abbas has channeled much of the cash flow which passes through the Palestinian Authority to his three sons and all his devoted followers who make sure he remains in power. Hamas is no different and all of its past leaders have pretty much retired with more money than they can blow through in an entire lifetime, though we are sure they will try to do just that. Neither set of leaders care to solve the problems they have molded from ant hills into what is visually a mountain but, in reality, is still an ant hill. They do it with smoke and mirrors, but mostly smoke. The recent scare is that the Palestinian Authority is dead broke and is unable to pay their government workers and also have enough to pay those and families of those who have murdered Israelis. In the end they cut their government workers’ salaries in half to pay the murderers of Jews, and that is their phrasing. When the Arab Palestinian leadership complains to the world that they are broke, it does not mean what you or I would consider broke. What this means is that their cash flow has been reduced from the Amazon River in the height of the rainy season to the Ganges River at the end of Summer before the Monsoons. Their complaint that they do not have the money necessary to meet obligations means that after they have skimmed most of their usual take right off the top, then they are without sufficient funds to continue and take their large percentage, possibly well over half, and still have sufficient to pay the murderers and also their government workers. Most of the working public are government employees of one sort or another.

 

Refined Living in Gaza

Refined Living in Gaza

 

What is so ridiculous is that were the Arab Palestinian leadership to complain that Israel had stolen all of their dandelions, half the European countries along with countless others would be growing dandelions under perfect conditions in order to have them bloom quickly to produce seeds to give the Arab Palestinian leaders to fill the terrible gap they were claiming to face. When Hamas was screaming about their lack of medical provisions, the IDF contributed to truck leads of the exact items they were complaining about and delivered them to Gaza. Hamas left these provisions to rot in the sun, rain, weather, whatever. Soon they were ruined and Hamas was still screaming about their terrible situation. The Palestinian Authority, of course, did not lift a finger to assist their brothers’ in Gaza who were in need, or so we were being told. The real truth was that they had sufficient medical provisions to treat those in need of medical care and this was more a ploy to gain funds than to gain gauze, balms, ointments, bandages or other medical provisions. As long as the leadership, their families, cohorts, security details, relatives and friends are all raking in the cash, there will be no solution and no peace. The over abundance of cash flowing through the Arabs residing in the Shomron and Gaza is more the problem than increasing it would be a solution. The funding to the Arab Palestinians has increased beyond the point of reason. President Trump addressing this situation through economic means is dead in the water as increasing their cash flow will merely increase their graft and greed. We will get back to the rumored Trump plan about to be unveiled later. It may simply be throwing money to surrounding countries who could not actually care less about their Arab Palestinian brothers and sisters and are simply taking all who are willing to cough up the cash for a ride.

 

The next difficulty is that the entire attempt to replace Israel with an Arab Palestinian nation was not even an idea that was broached before 1964 and even after the September 1964 roll out of the Arab League and KGB production despite it not yet being ready for prime time and was still being fleshed out. Within a decade the Arab Palestinians had become the cause celeb amongst those who knew that their leftist, anti-Judeo-Christian, Israel is the problem positions were the most proper and correct positions they could ever hold. How many of these celebs had ever been to Israel? Well, none as it is near impossible to support the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanction) Movement and actually visit Israel as that is amongst the things most certainly verboten. They view Israel to be such a horrid place where people are killed in the streets hourly, if even that infrequently, and it gets even worse in the areas of Israeli oppression as Israel is also practicing ethnic cleansing by removing Arabs by force as well as Israel practicing genocide using the IDF sweeping areas clean of Arab existence all of which explains why there are more Arab Palestinians year after year. Do these people ever stop and think their claims through? We mean like, really, do they have such a low opinion of the abilities of the IDF and Israel that if Israel desired the death of the Arab Palestinians, something we would never consider, that there would be any left alive after a few weeks for them to still protest using the same old adages including that Israel is committing genocide.

 

When the PLO was founded, their desired end was for their terrorist group, and they proudly exclaimed that they would be dealing in terror, would remove the Jews from Israel and then hand the lands to Jordan or sometimes Egypt or both. They had no claims for making themselves into a nation and instead saw them becoming Jordanian or Egyptian. The PLO distinctly stated they had a complete lack of concern for the West Bank (Shomron) or Gaza. Their reasoning was simply, these two regions were occupied by Arab nations so there were no Jews to expel. Egypt held Gaza illegally since they gained the region during their 1948 War to Eliminate the Jews and their State while Jordan held the Shomron region and had annexed it with three nations having recognized their annexation, Britain, Iraq and Pakistan. The Arab League even resisted granting recognition of the Jordanian move. The PLO laid their sights upon Israel and that target has never changed, it has simply regained lands which belonged to Israel legally from the outset. The defined borders for Israel were laid down at San Remo and confirmed by the British Mandate though the British decided that the Jews really would never require lands east of the Jordan River, so they gifted them to the Arabs and to the Hashemites so as to fulfill their promise to give both sons a nation of their own to rule. The other son got Iraq and was gifted the region presumably dedicated to the formation of a country for the Kurds, Kurdistan, but as these lands included the Mosul oil fields, the British cut a deal with the ruling son in Iraq and in exchange gifted him the region of Kurdistan. The Kurds have been denied rectifying this terrible injustice but other than Israel, very few are interested in the Kurds and their situation. Meanwhile, if the protesters really desired that justice be done, promises met and the rights of the Jewish People to be granted that which the world promised through the League of Nations, then the protest chant should be more along the lines of,

From the River to the Sea replete,
Israel will be made complete.

So, the problem for making peace is not money as the Arab Palestinians are the most supported group in the world by a large factor (see graph below). Their difficulty is they have predicated their hopes and desires on the removal through slaughter of the nation of Israel. Many of these Arab Palestinians would murder every individual in Israel should they have the opportunity while virtually all would agree that at the very least all the Jews must be eradicated. That is a definitive and central theme behind their education system, the books used by their education system, the naming of streets, squares, schools, sports parks, sporting events and virtually everything else which requires naming, even to include their children, after known terrorists with those who are valued the most as they murdered a larger number of Israelis (Jews), or as they refer to their victims, Zionist dogs. All of these items and far more has led to their raising a generation of, now, young adults who have a glorified view of murdering Jews, Israelis, Zionists and all those who have been set as enemies of the Arab Palestinians. Their hate has also been set against the United States and President Trump whom they view as a buffoon and a tool of the Zionists. This is why their leadership can reject President Trump’s peace proposals sight unseen before they have even been presented. They have no real desire for a homeland as much as they desire the destruction of somebody else’s nation, Israel.

 

Graph of Aid Money to Palestinian Territories and other needful locations

Graph of Aid Money to Palestinian Territories and other needful locations

 

The position to erase the nation of Israel simply because the Zionists had the audacity to decide to create something that, according to the Arabs and the Quran presumably, had never existed and was now stealing consecrated Islamic Arab lands, which cannot be viewed as the homelands of the Jews because the Jews are an accursed people forced to roam the world being forced from one nation to the next and those refusing to leave when told are to be murdered. The Arabs claim that the Jews have never had a homeland in this region as there has never been an actual nation located in this area and none of the cities have ever been the capital of any nation or people ever since the Arabs conquered the region. The problem is that the Islamic faith teaches that Islam existed before the world and man were created as it is the law by which their concept of their deity lives by and expects all the people of Earth to live by the Quran. They further believe that history for any region began once they had conquered the area and that once made Islamic, it may never be altered or removed from Islamic rule. Their belief is that the world began, at least all that is important, around fourteen-hundred years ago as they spread throughout the Middle East and across North Africa. They pretend not to know that Israel and the Jewish homelands have existed for close to four-thousand years and the initial deed is recorded in the Bible. They view Israelis to be European despite the known fact that the Arab world spat out virtually all of their Jews within the decade after they failed to destroy the nascent state of Israel. These near to eight-hundred-fifty-thousand Jews altered the face of Israel making the Europeans merely half of the population. These Arab Palestinians are bombarded day and night with propaganda relating to how totally awful the Israelis are and how they are responsible for everything which ails them. This is also the sorry excuse behind most of the economically challenged nation where the reason for their situation has nothing to do with their actions as they performed flawlessly but the Jews, or Israelis, came like thieves in the night and stole whatever riches and lands which actually all belonged to the Arabs initially. This is a difficult storyline to use and try to rectify with the known timeline which depicts the arrival of the Arabs who currently make up much of the population came after the Jews arrived, cleared the lands, began irrigation, drained the swamps and connected the region with electrical power. These economic improvements implied there would be jobs and people would have cash which the Arabs gave them an opportunity for employment,

 

The basic problem the world will have with the Arab Palestinians is that the developed world follows the idea of building for the future while the Arab Palestinians desire destroying Israel and tearing down everything the Jews and Israelis have built. The Arab Palestinians are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. This was behind the Gaza rioting replete with the launching of incendiary balloons intending to spread fire destroying all that they were able to set alight. The Arabs, particularly those in Gaza, make great calls on their people to sacrifice themselves for the cause. They make efforts to publicly revere and celebrate death with this taught to youth in an all aspects of their lives. This culture of death taught to children all but demands that they sacrifice their own lives for the cause. They are raised being taught that day to day life is a hard, difficult slog lasting day after day until you die and possibly go to heaven where there is plenty of water, beautiful with lush meadows, flowing rivers and fruit trees. But if you were to die fighting those evil Jews, then your soul is whisked off to heaven straight away with all sins forgiven where you receive seventy-two perpetual virgins who will see to your every need, and they are very explicit going into some depth about how these women would serve, please and pleasure them. Their teachers are largely from Hamas or Islamic Jihad with their core teachers being Imams. These people teach their children to have a deep-seated hatred for the Zionists alongside their expounding about their culture of death. Such is a dangerous and potentially volatile combination. Is it any wonder that the Palestinian Arab culture and life with so little regard for their day to day lives and such an emphasis on death that they have so many youths risking their lives in a hopeless assault on the border wall with total disregard for their own lives. Then again, on the other hand, these youths could simply by depending on the Israeli love for life thus their IDF practices what we preach and do not take lives needlessly. But the brainwashing by the Arab Palestinian leaders leaves little if any hope of peace now or in the distant future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 5, 2019

Is it Time to Replace Netanyahu?

 

The inability of Bibi Netanyahu to find the right formula to form a government was the result of his own doings. His craving for vengeance costed him a coalition yet much of Israel is resigned to his being Prime Minister despite his vengeful animus which threw away the chance for a solid religious Zionist right wing nationalist coalition. I hear many now demanding to know what we are referencing. Well, it comes down simply as the Bibi demanding that it is good to be the king and he plans on deciding who will be the king now and who will be the king of the future. In case you might be wondering who would be the future king, Bibi of course. Had Bibi not decided just two days before the election to promise everything which the New Right led by Naftali Bennett were using as the base for their campaign, then Likud might have lost two or three mandates and the New Right would have crossed threshold and resulted in a gain of four or more likely five mandates. This would have resulted in Bibi having sixty-three seats even without Avigdor Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu. But Bibi was determined to cause as much humiliation and heaped scorn on Bennett and Shaked for their betrayal of leaving Likud in order to seek more productive support. This has been further represented by Bibi fighting the prevailing mood within Likud to bring Ayelet Shaked into Likud with a high position on their list and a guaranteed Ministerial position. Many, if not most, of Likud members and those who hold positions within Likud desire bringing Ayelet Shaked back into their fold and may even see her as the heir apparent to Bibi. This has been the problem, Bibi does not desire having an heir apparent as he has no desire, despite what has been reported, of ever giving up his spot at the top of the list and as Prime Minister as a result.

 

BTC Israeli Election Banner

 

Since Naftali Bennett has made it very clear that he sees himself as the heir apparent and thought that any party he headed would give Likud a run for their money. Instead, he departed Jewish Home in a manner which left a bad taste throughout the party, and made his own party with Shaked as his number two. Initially, it appeared that his new party would receive over ten mandates, though we warned people that leaving Jewish Home for Bennett’s New Right was a mistake as he would be fortunate to clear threshold, he polled lower and lower and on election day did not pass threshold. The new election might breathe some fresh air into Bennett’s New Right Party but that is only if he retains Ayelet Shaked, which is starting to look very iffy as Jewish Home would also take her back, though Bennett is a wholly different matter. The real problem is because Bibi wanted to extract revenge on Naftali Bennett, and secondarily Ayelet Shaked, the New Right crumbled along with the hopes for a true religious Zionist coalition. Of course, Bibi will deny to the day he retires that this was not of his making and will blame Bennett pointing to his departure from Jewish Home as the reason, not Bibi taking the wind out of their sails.

 

Now we are looking at having no real governance until after the middle of September and also risk the left winning the election and getting first chance for putting together a coalition. Fortunately, such will be next to impossible should the Israeli voting public remain true to form. The best they could hope to patch together is possibly fifty-seven mandates, four short of a majority. This is largely due to the left requiring the Arab blocks to join them in order to even come close to reaching a viable coalition. Even should they find a means of incorporating the Arab lists into their coalition, such an unsteady group would fall apart and require new elections within the first four months. But even to make such a coalition, the Arab parties have proven to be difficult to bring on board as they simply refuse to be part of any ruling coalition where they are not the ones given total control. The simply way of stating this is that the Arab parties will make unreasonable demands and once these are met, they will demand more and more and even more. Eventually, one realizes that nothing will ever be sufficient to bring them into the government and thus making it impossible for the left to form a government at this time. That brings us back to forming a working coalition from the right.

 

There actually could be arguments made for choosing a different party leader from the right leaning parties to form a coalition. The difficulty here is that Bibi Netanyahu would refuse to permit the Likud from joining such a venture. Thus, the only means by which this could work would be through the removal of Bibi from leading Likud. Did I hear somebody say, “impossible?” That is why it is a problem. Bibi would tear the Likud Party into pieces taking a large chunk of the party with him in order to allow him to continue as Prime Minister indefinitely. There was a similar problem during the lead-up to the Gaza withdrawal when Arik Sharon was felled by American pressure to cede Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (PA) so they could prove their ability to form a functioning governance and state. Well, within two years the PA lost their grip on Gaza to Hamas and Islamic Jihad (controlled and provisioned by Iran) who have made war on Israel ever since their 2007 takeover. Erik Sharon was unable to convince the majority of the Likud Party to go along with the plan presented by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and President George W. Bush to permit the PA to rule Gaza unhindered. This caused him to form the Kadima Party which also included many people from leftist parties such as the Labor Party, and resulted in a coalition made up of strange bedfellows. He kept a coalition and gave away Gaza and the rest is history. The promise that Israel could simply reestablish control if things went wrong itself went wrong and now Hamas and Islamic Jihad control Gaza and threaten Israel representing Iran in the process.

 

We would not be surprised if things went awry, that Bibi would form his own party out of the remnants of Likud and whomever he could bring aboard and make a run at a centrist unity government, taking the same path as Arik Sharon. He could include the Blue-White Party, or whatever might be left after they separate from Yair Lapid and he take the most faithful of his Yesh Atid people with him. Add to this a few sprinklings from both extremes including people who decide that this is the best bet for their future. We can only issue them the same warning we gave those leaving to joining Bennett, be very careful where you cast your lot as things tend to lose their luster once revealed to the sunlight.

 

Still, we have three months plus to the September elections in which time much can come to pass. The attempts by Naftali Bennett to bring the religious-Zionist parties together to run with him leading the ticket are doomed to failure. What does he believe he has to offer after his recent defeat? This is his final push to find his path to being Prime Minister. We long ago told friends that all Naftali Bennett was is Yair Lapid with a yarmulke, nothing more. Bennett believes that he is owed the Prime Minister position on any ticket which he joins. He probably left Likud realizing that he was not going to replace Bibi from within. He left Jewish Home because he believed he was their star attraction and as such he could simply make his own party and people would flock to him and Jewish Home would be decimated. Jewish Home was in complete disarray immediately after he left partially because Bennett had refused to seat the new Central Committee and refused to allow the Central Committee to meet for over a year before he split taking the number two and another Minister along with him. Jewish Home (we) rather than collapse found a new leader, and what a great leader he is, and proceeded to form a small coalition with two other parties and broke threshold. As long as Jewish Home can retain the other parties, all looks bright. There is also the possibility that Jewish Home might pick up Zehut and in the process placing Moshe Feiglin within the top ten positions on the party ballot. Such a move would unite the religious-Zionist parties forming a block which could reach the necessary sixty-one mandates along with Likud in September. The problem will not be incorporating the New Right former Jewish Home party members into the coalition as most never officially resigned from Jewish Home and as such are still members in good standing. Those who did renounce their membership will have a more difficult road back, but will still be welcomed and might even return receiving everything they may have formerly held. These past elections were a disaster waiting to happen and Bibi gave that disaster the push it needed to squelch the New Right and their platform bringing their efforts to a premature end. It was a classic case of cutting one’s nose to spite their face.

 

So, is it time to replace Bibi Netanyahu? Even so, it remains improbable that he can be replaced. He has carefully destroyed every person who came even close to presenting him with a challenge. He did so to Moshe Feiglin and most recently to Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked and has done similarly to every individual who posed a realistic challenge to his primacy. We have watched this time and again. That presents a huge difficulty in replacing Netanyahu as he controls Likud ruling it with an iron glove on one hand and silk glove on the other. Those who bed their will to his and serve to increase his power get the silk glove and those who rise to challenge him are struck cold by the other glove. This means that there are only two paths to the position of Prime Minister, one with blessings from Bibi and the other as his opposition. Thus far there has not been one who has curried Bibi’s favor to become heir apparent to his rule and perhaps none sufficiently qualified to challenge him from without. Part of the problem is that Bibi completely controls Likud and has not chosen an heir apparent thus leaving only the adversarial method for defeating him. Thus, one must look at the opponents and their likelihood for challenging Bibi.

 

The Blue-White Party with their presumed impressive list of notable people such as Yair Lapid and the four generals has a problem. The problem is that at least three, if not all four, of the generals hold to the position that some form of the Gaza withdrawal mixed with the IDF remaining in southern Lebanon as the solution they back giving the PA another chance at forming a workable society. Their leading candidate, General Benny Ganz initially spoke of how he learned from Gaza and believed if handled differently it could be applied to the settlements with slight adjustments largely consisting of leaving the IDF behind to monitor and prevent terrorism. So, he would pull back to the Security Barrier, very close to the Green Line (see map below), giving the lands beyond to the PA and declaring the conflict over and expecting the Arabs to concur. The IDF would presumably be left in place while all Israeli civilians would be uprooted and forced to find new residence within the remainder of Israel. Their claim that this time it will work is based on their intent on literally forming these borders by fiat and presenting this as the solution to the PA and expecting them to be happy about this. That will fail and do so miserably.

 

Green Line versus Separation Fence Borders

Green Line versus
Separation Fence Borders

 

The problem with this solution is the same as it has been with every solution, that being that as long as any piece of Israel remains with the Jews permitted self-rule, this will be totally unacceptable to the Arab side. The world and far too many Israelis actually honestly believe that when the Arabs refer to their demand that they be given the entirety of the 22% of the mandate, they are not speaking about some piece of land west of the Jordan River, they are talking about all the lands west of the Jordan River. The basic question is that when they chant, From the River to the Sea Palestine must be free,” what does anyone believe that would leave as the Jewish State. The 22% they are demanding has nothing to do with West Bank or Gaza or any other division of the lands, they are referring to the remaining 22% which is not Jordan which took 78% of the British Mandate. The Palestinian Arabs demand for 22% is from the British Mandate and correspond to all the lands set aside for the Jewish state between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, the River to the Sea. Their demand is for all of Israel and they demand that this land be Judenrein, and should any Jews remain, they have a solution, a final solution. From all we have seen, Bibi has no actionable solution to this overly-extended problem. So, who might be capable of mounting a drive and replacing Bibi?

 

This depends completely and totally upon the people of Israel. There is no lack of people who could replace Bibi Netanyahu and serve as Prime Minister of Israel. The going argument the people backing Bibi always claim is that nobody has the experience of being Prime Minister as does Bibi. That is no wonder as he will soon be the longest serving Prime Minister and is already the longest serving living Prime Minister. By this argument, Bibi can never be replaced which just might inevitably run into a problem, either his retirement voluntarily or forced by Mother Nature. We may as well face facts, the next Prime Minister after Bibi will have far less experience than does Bibi. Everyone upon being elected to lead their nation for the first time has zero job experience, but they figure out what the buttons on their phones mean and find the button for calling meetings or their aid to come take a letter, or e-mail. So, pushing such a weak argument aside as superfluous, let us move on. Yair Lapid consistently claims he is the man with a plan and if only he were Prime Minister, all the Israeli problems would disappear as he can fix everything. Well, first off, please let us not fix anything which is not broken. Simply stated, leave the economy alone unless you plan on reducing taxes. The real problem is that Yair Lapid is one of those who believes that there is a solution which can be reached if only the perfect concession of land were proffered the Arabs. Of course, he does not mean all the Jews moving to California and giving all the lands to the Arabs, so, as we have explained, whatever his proposal, the Arabs will refuse it as not sufficient. The Generals from the Blue-White Party also suffer from the same ailment. Their solution takes the worst of the Gaza disengagement, pulling the Jews from their homes, and combines this with the worst of the disaster of Southern Lebanon where Israel left the IDF in a region she had surrendered any claim which eventually led to a hasty retreat executed by one of the generals (another of the generals was responsible for the Gaza disengagement). So, their solution to the problems with the PA is to combine the Gaza disengagement with the disaster of southern Lebanon and pretend it is something which has a viable chance at success. There is a single saving grace in their plan, Mahmoud Abbas and his terrorists will refuse this as a solution as Israel will not have gone far enough to find a solution, their problem is that Israel remains. This problem only becomes worse as one would go further left, thus any replacement for Bibi is not to be found on the left.

 

This leaves a problem as Bibi has ruled the right for approaching a decade. His Likud Party has cemented the lion’s share in every election only a few times having anything approaching a problem from the left. This means that any real and viable threat to replace Bibi has to come from Likud or a surprise from another of the right leaning parties. As far as somebody rising from within Likud to challenge Bibi, such in the past has proven to be fateful and immediately followed by being placed far down the Likud list thereafter followed by their burial as a viable candidate. Some such people include Moshe Feiglin and Naftali Bennett; both of whom have been relegated to the scrap heap of parties missing threshold. The best Naftali Bennett ever did was actually provide Bibi a challenge but as the election appeared as if it might slide to the left of Likud or Bennett’s party, Jewish Home at the time, received the lion’s share of the right wing votes so one of the two needed to fall on his sword, which Bennett did and that may have proven to be the last time he posed a threat to Bibi. Currently, there is no obvious threat to Bibi though there has been a development very recently which may provide insight of a potential challenger in the near future. The news of Bennett attempting to head a coalition of right wing-religious-Zionist parties was met with an interesting response from the current leader of the United Right and head of Jewish Home, MK Rabbi Rafi Peretz, who stated that joining their block by Naftali Bennett and the remains of his New Right Party would be welcomed but would not result in any alteration of the party hierarchy. Rafi Peretz made one thing clear, as he has come from a quiet retirement where he had no desires to enter politics or the public spotlight, his decision to lead the United Right was a casting of the dice and he will be putting forth the same efforts he has given to everything else he has undertaken. When an individual who was once a combat helicopter pilot, in and of itself an impressive challenge, and going further in the IDF to become a Brigadier General and to be the IDF Chief Rabbi and then becoming head of the Otzem Pre-Military Academy in Yated, which was relocated from Bnei Atzmon after the Gaza disengagement, this is not somebody to take lightly. Once the Israeli public becomes introduced to this man of great talents, his straight talking and meaning what he says and saying what he means, there is a definitive possibility that Rafi Peretz could become the Prime Minister after Bibi and do so while Bibi is still in contention. There are two people currently who could either pose a direct challenge running against Bibi to lead the right of center coalition or becoming heir apparent. The heir apparent would be Ayelet Shaked providing she manages to rejoin Likud and Rafi Peretz under any circumstance as he gains in notoriety and thus popularity. The positive vibes we received from numerous fronts when Rafi Peretz was named as the new leader for Jewish Home was just the tip of the iceberg of the potential for him going forward. Israel would be well served having a man of such integrity and forceful character as Prime Minister and would gain even more due to his politics and love for his country. Time will tell who replaces Bibi and when, but that time is coming and who knows how much longer Bibi can retain his monopoly on the Prime Minister’s spot.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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