Beyond the Cusp

November 30, 2018

Why the World Seeks to Destroy Israel

 

The world has been attempting to destroy Israel simply because it is the Jewish State and because of their dependence on oil. Until the late 1960’s and more readily the early 1970’s even the United States was, at best, neutral regarding Israel. People believe that the United States had supported Israel from the beginning because Truman voted for the Israeli statehood at the United Nations in that presumed crucial vote. What most ignore or are unaware of, is that immediately after Israel declared statehood, the United States imposed an arms embargo under pressure from the State Department and the Defense Department of the time. This embargo remained in place until almost 1970 (see graph below) when President Lyndon Baines Johnson realized that Israel could be a permanent and dedicated ally and also the Defense Department and United States aviation industry also desired preventing the Israeli entry into the world’s fighter aircraft industry with the Lavi fighter which Israel was planning on putting into production. Ever since, Israel has been dependent on United States military aid, specifically for fighter aircraft. This is an area where the leadership of Israel should be carefully considering reentering this market with a sixth generation aircraft as the continued graces of the United States is questionable. One only need listen and read about some of the newly elected individuals entering national politics and their visceral hatred for the Jewish State. They are the future which is part of what we will cover.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

Aid for Israel has had bipartisan support for quite a period, longer than any other issue that comes to mind. That phenomenon is coming to an abrupt end. What is almost strange is initially support for Israel began on the left and had been slowly moved rightward. This made it a centrist issue as it slowly meandered across the political frame. Soon, support for Israel will end up as an issue supported by the right until it falls off the political frame and is simply a non-issue. As such, it will bring United States support for Israel slowly to an end. This is something the Israelis need to awaken and realize what is ahead. Preparation for this scenario, Israel will need to find a new source, preferably in making their own factories, providing firearms, bullets, heavy weapons, financing for the Iron Dome, naval vessels, submarines (as Germany will be less giving once the United States ends their support), space launch vehicles and most important fighter aircraft and all other supporting equipment. The up side will be the creation of thousands of highly paying jobs which will largely make up for the loss of United States aid. What is interesting is the fact that United States aid has become something which Israel could make do without if push comes to shove. United States has provided approximately three billion of dollars steadily since 1975 through to the current time. When one compares United States aid against Israeli GDP (see graph below), one will note that up to around 1980 this aid virtually equaled the entirety of the Israeli GDP. Then when looking at this since 2010, this ratio has flipped severely and United States aid has become a mere one to one and a half percent of Israeli GDP. When one realizes the additional jobs which would result from Israel producing their military goods in country, just as Israel makes their own tanks, the Merkava compared to the M1A2 Abrams with the Merkava rated as comparable in most attributes with a few where it gives ground and a few where it has more advanced and innovative adaptations. It is highly likely that Israeli engineers and design specialists would be very capable in designing and then manufacturing a top-level next generation fighter aircraft which would be specifically designed around all Israeli military needs, something the current United States aircraft actually fall short. We would also advise the Israeli engineers to take a long and hard look at the A-10 Warthog and seriously consider producing a modernized version of this excellent close support aircraft which would provide for superior close support in certain situations where helicopters would face serious threats which such an aircraft with its heavier armor could survive.

 

Israeli GDP Billions $

Israeli GDP Billions $

 

Now, let us get on to our titled subject. For the last number of decades, the United States has faced similar opprobrium as has Israel, and for similar reasons. For this article, we will largely ignore the Arab-Israeli Conflict as it is anchored in a complete irrelevant base for our considerations. The Arab-Israeli Conflict is simply about one thing, the Islamic Quranic directive to deny the Jews any rights and to kill them whenever and wherever possible. The rest of the world has other reasons for opposing Israel. We will largely be ignoring the anti-Semitic basis for much of the invective witnessed thrown at Israel. The reason for much of the behind the scenes support for every form of vilification towards Israel has had a similar source as the same scorn thrown the United States’ way. This is due to both nations having vibrant democratically based governance and their, what is considered, scurrilous dedication to their independence and the freedom of their citizenry. These traits stand diametrically opposed to the imposition of a single world governance based on a one world religion (or lack thereof), centralized governance, centralized economic control, greater share of world wealth, renewable energy replacing reliance on fossil fuels, demilitarization, centralized police force replacing world militaries, subordination of national governance to a central world order, and erasure of borders allowing free migration of populations. Yes, this is always called a conspiracy theory, but it is also the goal of the United Nations leadership, was the basis behind the European Union, is supported by numerous developing nations who seek the redistributed wealth and is an idea whose time is nowhere near being applied to the world in its current state. One of the main reasons why single world governance is out of the question is largely based on the tribal nature of the world. There are a number of nations within which there are tribal societies which are subdued by force otherwise, they would not only desire independence, but very well might declare independence. The most recent example of such was the Kurdish vote for declaring independence which the leadership was intimidated preventing their doing what would have probably worked out just as well if not far better than what followed with Iraqi troops aided by IRGC provided by Iran sweeping into the Kurdish region intent on at least partial genocide with Turkey doing the same thing to the Kurds of northern Syria. This was the reason the State Department advised against their declaring independence as they feared such a declaration would prompt Iraq taking military action to destroy any Kurdish nation. How that differed from the current situation is unclear. Another reason the State Department advised against Kurdish independence is that they would simply have been another nation completely resistant to any plans to unify under single governance worldwide. The State Department, continuing their long history of choosing the wrong side, actually works, within its deep state belly of the beast, supports initiatives which are intended to slide the world ever forward into single governance.

 

The problems with such governance are too numerous to list here, but allow us to hit on a few. One of the main initiatives which will be amongst the first acts of such governance will be wealth equalization which will be accomplished in the name of saving the Earth from the ill effects of humanity, especially the high cost which fossil fuels are taking according to the Global Climate Change initiatives. These are not an honest attempt to cut the use of fossil fuels, it is simply a means of forcing the developed world pay the developing world in order to get tokens, carbon credits, in order to sustain their standard of living and levels of production. One can only wonder how loud the caterwauling would be if in order to cut down or eliminate the need for the United States to buy carbon credits, the United States simply cut their agricultural production by not using fertilizers or pesticides leading to a reduction ten-fold in agricultural production and eliminating their export of food because the United States only produced sufficient food for their own population. When one third of the world was starving, does anyone think they would care one whit about Climate Change or would they be begging the United States to simply have their carbon credits and return to feeding the world. There are means by which the developed world could cut back on their fossil fuel use at little cost to their own people but at a severe cost to the rest of the world. Such could be the cost of unintended consequences from the world adopting schemes by which to transfer the developed world’s wealth to a collection of third world dictators who simply drool at the prospect. What they do not see is there are other means of pressure other than military force, food is one great weapon.

 

The world desires at controlling the developed world and in this fevered fervor, they place the United States as their number one target, which is sensible, and place Israel as their second target, which is not as sensible. When looking at the top nations in gross GDP, the top ten are the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, India, France, Brazil, Italy and Canada. Israel comes in, depending on which ranking, in the middle to low thirties, not exactly the second largest target by such a ranking, but still they are second on the One World Order hierarchy’s list. So, maybe they rate better under GDP per capita. The top nations in per capita GDP according to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) are somewhat unexpected, as first is Luxembourg followed by Switzerland, Macau, Norway, Iceland, Ireland, Qatar, United States, Singapore, Denmark and Australia with Israel coming in at twenty. When you check a few other statistics about Israel, serious questions should arise as to why it is so constantly in the news and in United Nations crosshairs. Israel is one-hundredth in population, one-hundred-fiftieth by area, thirty-fourth in population density, and we searched high and low even inventing concepts for which Google had no listings and the highest-ranking Israel received was eleventh place in happiness. We think Israel was robbed, we should have been higher ranked, at least seventh or possibly fifth, but ours is a skewed ranking as Israel is also home. Still, there is no reason why Israel should be the second target on almost any list outside of those controlled by the Arab and Muslim nations, which means almost every list from the United Nations and their various agencies. Still, there can be little doubt that Israel is in the crosshairs of way too many agents who also desire forming singular governance over the world. These same agencies and NGO’s also target the United States making them an even higher nation opposing their efforts. Since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union (BREXIT), they have moved well up on the targeting list as that was simply a dreaded show of what the One Worlders refer to as despicable nationalism. The raucous accusations clamoring for the United Kingdom to be punished economically even to the point of some demanding the European Union break off all trade with the British Isles has fallen off as things have simmered to a halt which momentarily was aroused for a brief second round when United States President Trump announced the willingness of America to increase trade with Britain. We can almost always count on President Trump to divert attention away from any burning problem of the day simply by stating something which if said by anyone else would not rise to the level of newsworthy. In Israel, we are used to similar treatment whenever Netanyahu or almost any other Israeli gets to a microphone to make a statement. The best example is that any building performed in Israel, particularly a new structure or anything beyond the Green Line, all go through anywhere from five to over ten stages of approvals from conception to the beginning of clearing the region. Whenever one of the beyond the Green Line plans passes one of these stages, they make the headlines of the New York Times and from there a few trips around the newswire. This makes even the addition of a deck or a new room for the coming baby into an international debate and argument for over a year before the first brick is even bought. If anyone who has read the San Remo Conference and the League of Nations Mandate can explain the reason for this with consideration of the promises made Israel which are still applicable under International Law, we would appreciate such a discussion. By the way, do not feel left out of something important if you never heard of these enforceable treaties under International Law which appear to have been sucked up by a political black hole. Forgetting these promises is part of the expediency for placing Israel high on the targeting list. While we appreciate attention, sometimes we would prefer a little anonymity.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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September 21, 2018

America Can be a Fickle Friend

 

Sometimes we believe that the leadership of Israel is oblivious to signs and signals they should be receiving from the rest of the world. In particular, Israel has this predisposition to see the United States as the perfection of nationhood and a fast friend forever. This is a belief that reaches to almost every corner and the vast majority of individuals throughout the land. At times we have attempted to warn or at least shake these beliefs warning that the United States is not sworn to protect Israel and there is no overriding reason that they have other than electoral politics. Electoral politics in the United States have changed and changed drastically. There were early warnings of what a single election could do when President Jimmy Carter attempted to force Israel into granting the Palestinian Arabs complete sovereignty over all the lands still remaining after Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt as part of that peace deal. Fortunately, both Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat refused this demand from President Carter and threatened to complete the deal without him in the picture. President Carter not being in the picture was unacceptable politically, thus he settled for what the two leaders had agreed. Then there has been the record since President Carter left the White House of his constant degrading remarks and efforts against Israel which have led some to think he might have a streak of anti-Semitism. We would offer to settle that posit as positive, Carter definitely has a wide streak of anti-Semitism covering much of what he does concerning Israel.

 

But the warnings were only to get worse. President Clinton had Yasser Arafat visit the White House more than any foreign leader in his eight years as President and pressured Israel mercilessly to give ever more concessions and fortunately, Arafat refused to break from his demand that Israel be destroyed. Fortunately, President Clinton was not willing to go quite that far. Then we had George W. Bush, touted as the greatest friend Israel ever had in the Oval Office, who along with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice who pressed Israel into the Gaza give-away and the destruction of the lives of nearly ten thousand Israelis, some of whom are still attempting to recover. Moving right along we come to President Obama who presented Iran with the means, the path, the right and the funding to build not just a nuclear device, but to build an entire thermonuclear arsenal and the ballistic missiles and ICBMs on which to place those warheads. President Obama even gave Israel a parting present with a shot aimed at the Israeli heart with UNSC Res. 2334. This resolution would have all but denied any Israeli or Jewish claim to the Temple Mount, the Old City of Jerusalem, Jericho, Hevron, Shechem and the heartlands of Judea and Samaria, the regions where most of the history of the Jewish People unfolded. Yet the Israelis, both within the government and amongst the people continue to believe that the United States is a friend who will never act to harm Israel. We just hope that they are correct and such never comes about, but to bet your future on this is nothing short of foolhardy.

 

Allow us to delve into another act which we believe has done near irreparable harm to Israel and could become life-threatening if not countered immediately. Once upon a time, not all that long ago, Israel had developed a war-plane which she had almost begun production. Along came the United States who noted, ‘Hey, our friend, Israel, we have an aircraft very much like yours. How about we sell you ours and you scrap yours?’ Israel pointed out that theirs had a longer range, was slightly better at the kind of activities Israel required. The United States did not give up as they really did not desire this Israeli plane competing for sales in the arms markets, so they offered, ‘Tell you what, we will throw in an equal number of our other aircraft and then you will have even more planes and abilities. We will even guarantee you, Presidential promise, aircraft into eternity giving you air superiority.’ Well, who could turn down twice the planes and an eternal guarantee?’ The problem is when you tell Israel and the Jews it is an eternal guarantee, we think in terns of thousands of years and the United States not quite two-hundred-fifty years old, how do they know of eternity. So Israel received her F-16s and F-15s and now the F35s but was refused the F22s despite the fact that the United States has provided Saudi Arabia and other Arab neighbors F35s which kind of ruins that promise of guaranteed air superiority which the F22s would have provided. Granted, the versions of these aircraft all carry the version letter ‘I’ as the Israeli versions all have modifications which are secret (really) which allows the claim that they provide air superiority. The war-plane Israel had designed and scrapped was called the Lavi and was a beautiful aircraft to look at as well as having uncontested abilities (see picture below).

 

Lavi the Lost Dream

Lavi the Lost Dream

 

We have previously stated much of this in our previous article How Bad do Americans Want to be First in Space?, but we have no problem repeating ourselves. Oh, you’ve noticed. Well, at least that’s settled. The first thing is that Israel must no longer outsource any part of her defense industry. No more reliance on Germany for submarines, United States for aircraft, and whomever for Littoral ships. Should any one of the nations providing Israel with necessary and vital military equipment decide to no longer provide their military equipment, then there could be a dangerous and difficult to repair hole in the IDF and their war fighting capability. We will concentrate for our example on aircraft. What would Israel be able to do if in ten to twelve years, when the next generation of fighter aircraft with whatever the latest marvel designed into it becomes available, when Israel turns to the United States to purchase these marvels and the answer is not to sell them to Israel because Israel is so difficult to deal with. These aircraft are not exactly designed in a few weekends on the side, they take a few years to imagine and another couple to design and still longer to build. Basically, what it comes down to is that if Israel desires to be prepared for such an unpleasant surprise, she needs to begin working on this immediately. This is something which is of vital national defense priority level issue which likely has not even reached the debate stage. There is another reason that Israel should plan on designing her future aircraft, and it has little to do with whether or not the United States will continue providing her with aircraft, it has to do with national pride and independence from foreign influence, which can only come with defense and financial independence and not having to rely on any other nation.

 

Israel also is a sizeable recipient of United States foreign aid monies. This causes some discontent amongst American citizens who claim that Israel can afford to care for herself and the United States can use the three billion dollars or there abouts better at home. Surprisingly, this argument is not made concerning Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, South Korea and the rest. Below we have a pair of graphs, the top being Israeli GDP which will come into play, and the bottom is United States aid to Israel by year. Looking at the aid to Israel graph there is one unmistakable but unavoidable as well as remarkably obvious thing, real aid to Israel did not come into play until around the early 1970s. What is interesting about that is this was about the same time as Israel was granted a deal providing Israel would remove herself from making fighter aircraft. This has permitted the United States to have one less competent aircraft manufacturing nation which is technologically advanced and could have built aircraft which might, and probably would, have sold for less and been decent rivals to any American aircraft. This means that one would have to take into consideration how much influence the United States would have lost and sales they might have missed if Israel had built the Lavi and gone on developing even more advanced stealth aircraft and beyond. The other obvious item is that the aid has leveled out for the last thirty years plus at approximately three-billion dollars. Back in the early 1970s, Israel needed the aid money, as what the United States provided was almost equal to the Israeli GDP. Today, well, not so much as Israeli GDP means that the United States aid to Israel is but around 3.5% of her GDP. Should Israel decide to present the United States with the following deal, one can only wonder how it would play in the media. The deal is that the United States can keep its money except for providing parts as agreed for the aircraft Israel has purchased or received (simply terminological difference), then Israel would be freed to start to manufacture their own fighter aircraft and other military aircraft as they desire or see fit. Let us try and imagine the response in the media as that might be amusing.

 

 

United States Aid to Israel

United States Aid to Israel;
Note the lack of aid until Israel agreed to not produce a better F-16 style fighter jet in 1971

 

We imagine the initial reaction to be shock, disbelief and many claiming that Israel was making a huge mistake. This would be true in both national news media. The Israel Prime Minister would be recommended for psychiatric evaluation by Haaretz and others might actually agree. The American President would be pilloried by the pro-Israel lobby and given acclaim by the alt-right and far left (unless a republican and then omit far left). Congress would immediately pass dozens of legislations which would spend the three-billion dollars ten times over. Eventually, the truth of the full effect of this move would become apparent. What would the United States gain, three-billion dollars a year, a mere 10% of the annual budget and likely a mere 5% by the time this occurs. What would the United States lose, the technological alterations which Israel makes for her aircraft some of which the United States adopts in their next series, a direct line to all Israeli anti-missile software and hardware such as the Iron Dome System which has already been utilized to update and improve the Patriot Systems, a real war zone test facility as Israel was the test base for United States aircraft in an actual combat situation and numerous other items on the periphery. What would Israel lose, three-billion dollars per year, a mere 3.5% of GDP and having her aircraft designed by the United States. What would Israel gain is a whole series of what would result in wonderful things. Israel would now need to design her own aircraft, build her own aircraft and maintain her own aircraft. This would mean some very nice high-end engineering jobs and the opening of a complete new line of engineering in which jobs would be available in Israel. There would go along software design jobs and soon thereafter manufacturing jobs, and these would be well paying manufacturing jobs. This would add to the GDP lessening the impact of the lost funding from the United States, as taxes would be collected all along these new job paths. More jobs in high paying fields and well paying manufacturing jobs leads to more retail jobs, restaurant and virtually every area gains when there are more workers receiving higher paychecks. Israel would also have entry into the lucrative fighter aircraft market, the exact market which led to Israel being dependent on the United States for her aircraft. In the end, the Israeli Prime Minister would be lauded as having been a man of vision and might even ride such approval to a whole decade as Prime Minister. These are the risky kinds of bold steps which make or break people’s political careers and can make their legacy. Imagine what kind of aircraft Israel might produce with stealth so good we cannot show you a picture because it is invisible. Well, we can dream and joke, but really, what would Israel design.

 

Going along that path, we have an idea of what Israel would design as a sixth-generation fighter aircraft. The aircraft would be one third smaller than current fighter aircraft and have five times the missile carrying potential all in hidden pop-out and fire compartments. Believe it or not, it would have guns with tens of thousands of rounds which would fire at the target designated by the pilot automatically computing best-shot probabilities. The plane would easily be capable of thirty-G and maybe forty-G turns with no ill effect on the pilot, because the pilot is not in the aircraft. These stealthy aircraft would be remotely flown leaving more room for fuel and armaments and requiring less protection as there is no pilot so no armored cockpit. The plane would be controlled by a wideband light source with each plane responding only to its own frequency and coded sync pulse. Should longer-range missions be necessary, there could be a limited number of piloted versions or a special aircraft could carry numerous control pilots and fly miles behind keeping a squad of the fighters for its protection while the rest carry out missions. They could be given missions which could be flown completely without human input once the aircraft took off just as Tomahawk cruise missiles are fired except this aircraft returns after the mission. Using friend-or-foe identification, these aircraft could fly intercept missions to prevent incoming aircraft from invading Israeli airspace flying completely autonomously. Any aircraft Israel designs will have other ramifications such as development of materials and systems which could make cars safer including self-driving vehicles. This type of manufacturing might even lead to an Israeli car manufacturer who could make one limited edition high-end sports car as well as some mass produced family and midrange priced vehicles. Perhaps Israel will make the breakout for an electrically powered vehicle which charges more rapidly with sufficient range to cover all of Israel on a single charge or they could also provide charging stations spaced strategically around Israel and sell the charging systems to nations interested in the vehicle. Starting with producing an all-Israeli fighter aircraft could lead to an all-Israeli Littoral class warships and an all-Israeli submarine.

 

Why stop there? Israel could build herself a spaceport (see map with our projected site below) and join the space race. Rockets are something Israel has already developed, but she does not have a heavy lift launch craft for developing a manned space program. A spaceport, some would claim, makes too much of a high-profile target for terrorist attacks. Oh, and the Dimona reactor and the twin nuclear power stations in Haifa as well as every flight in and out of Ben Gurion International Airport are exactly what? Let’s face it, all of Israel is a high value target with the most precious being her people. Israel has announced that their nonprofit SpaceIL and the government-owned corporation Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) aim to launch a robotic lunar landing mission atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Florida this December. How much more pride would there be if instead of atop a foreign company’s rocket from a launch site in the United States it read from atop an Israel designed and manufactured rocket from the spaceport south of Beersheva. There would be Israelis gathering at a safe distance to watch such a launch and those unable to get there would be glued to the television sets. This would be something over which almost every Israeli would get excited. Additionally, if there was the foresight to make the spaceport with multiple launch facilities and an adjacent special runway which could land any plane carrying parts from other countries, Israel could enter into the space launch business. The different gantries could each be tailored in such a way as to fit any requirements. There could be an additional area which would be flat and very solid where those self-landing reusable booster first stages could touch down safely away from anything of value, just in case. One can never be too safe. Israel might even place a second international airport fairly close to the spaceport such that in the future there could be travel to Israel for space tourism.

 

Israel Space Port Launch Facility

Israel Space Port Launch Facility

 

Back from dreaming and to the more immediate. Israel needs to plan for a future where the United States either cannot or chooses not to provide any form of aid and denies Israel purchase of her aircraft. As stated above, this is something which requires planning well ahead of the event. The problem we see is the growing number of extreme left politicians and some mainstream liberal politicians who have an adversarial relationship concerning Israel. The numbers of anti-Israel, and in too many cases also anti-Semites, politicians come from both parties with the Democrat side having Keith Ellison, Bernie Sanders, Steve Cohen, Gerald Connolly, John Yarmuth, Tammy Baldwin, Earl Blumenauer, Suzanne Bonamici, Michael Capuano, Andre Carson, William Lacy Clay, Emanuel Cleaver, John Conyers, Danny Davis, Peter DeFazio, Rosa DeLauro, John Dingell, Donna Edwards, Anna Eshoo, Luis Gutierrez, Martin Heinrich, Jesse Jackson Jr, Eddie Bernice Johnson, Barbara Lee, John Lewis, Betty McCollum, Jim McDermott, James Moran, Eleanor Holmes Norton, Charles Rangel, Laura Richardson, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Pete Stark, Nydia Velazquez, Chris Van Hollen, Henry Waxman as well as these on the Republican side including Steve West, Arthur Jones, John Fitzgerald, Corey Stewart, Bill Fawell. Oh, wait, we left out the newest darling of the Democrat Party from New York who believes Israel is a problem but we have doubts that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, could even find Israel on a globe even now after a month of heavy duty coaching.

 

The reality is there is still more than enough anti-Semitism, anti-Israeli and anti-Zionists living on the right, mostly the far right or alt-right almost all of which, while many may support President Trump, the President does not share their hatreds but on the left, specifically the far left and the new-leftist socialist supporters there is an even larger and growing group who fit into this classification. Those on the left are more of a problem than those on the right as the right and alt-right anti-Semites, who oppose all things Jewish including Israel, are an isolated group who represent a small and very slowly growing group who are nowhere near becoming a political movement. The new-leftists, leftist socialists, and far leftists are far more of a problem because they are the future of the Democrat Party and, as much as it pains us to say this, they are the future of the United States. The education system is spitting out these programmed youth with ideas right out of Bernie Sanders early campaign points. Free everything for everyone, including but not limited to medical care, education, food, housing, guaranteed employment and a fifteen dollar an hour minimum wage. The rich or the government will pay for all these free things because the rich and especially the government have a never-ending supply of money and the rich got their money by cheating the poor out of their rightful money. These are the youth vote which, should they become excited about a candidate, when garnered can put somebody into the White House, the House of Representatives and the Senate. These are the voters who more often tend to not remember or not care enough to vote. That was then and now many of these youth are being politicized by the education system and made to feel disenfranchised as well as energized to elect those who support the same things their teacher taught them about how socialism is the best system and free things is how it should be. These are the voters who in a dozen years will rule the roost and will be choosing who runs the United States. This means that Israel had better awaken to a future without United States aid and weaponry and having to depend upon her own people and resources. That is the challenge for Israel, the challenge for the United States is to survive and do that which is best for them, and if that places Israel out in the cold, so to speak, then Israel will adapt.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 14, 2017

I Worry for Israel and Her Future

 

Is my fear produced because of the terrorist threats? Not at all, though that is troubling, it is not a threat that could erase Israel. Is it that Iran may have nuclear weapons in the not too distant future and have claimed they will wipe Israel from the map? No, not that either. Against Iran I have faith that Israeli intelligence will know before the Iranians launch such an attack and then it will be addressed. Should they manage to launch some missiles, the Israeli multi-layered missile interception systems will take care of those attacks and the new additions that are in development are of a nature that no missile will penetrate the Israeli shields. Is it the number of Arab nations who might combine forces again as in 1948? Again, that is not something to fear; as there are very few leaders around whom these nations would congeal and the one potential such leader is more, a friend to Israel than a threat, but that relationship is low-key and not generally shared publically. Then it must be the war predicted for the end times, the war of Gog and Magog. No, that would not concern Israel at all as Israel is not included in that war. Well, what threat have we left out, what could be all that worrying if not these threats?

 

My fear is an unprepared Israel when the United States decides that Israel is not an ally worth assisting any further and the outlays to Israel can be better spent on benefits to the American poor. This could come as quickly as an election of a new President and his Inauguration followed by a complete disengagement from Israel including dissolution of all treaties and agreements. This would include an abrupt ending of all military aid, both material and financial, and the termination of any civil or other forms of aid. We saw how easily such an event could transpire with the election and partial freezing of any friendly relations beyond that which was absolutely necessary by President Obama towards the end of his second term and the general cool relations during his entire eight years in office. Oddly enough, the loss of financial aid is not what is frightening about such a series of events. There are a number of reasons which we will demonstrate fully, but first a little bit of history and the complete obliteration of one of the most lethal myths about the Israel-America relationship.

 

The myth is that the United States has always been the number one supporter of Israel. The corollaries to this myth are equally perfidious as they make both nations look poorly by insinuation. One is Israel would be incapable of making the weapons systems, which the United States provides, on their own. There are a number of answers to this. The first is the Merkava. The Merkava IV is the current rendition of the Israel designed and manufactured main battle tank. Let’s list the top ten main battle tanks as listed by Military-Today.com. The list follows:

1) Leopard 2A7 (Germany)
2) K2 Black Panther (South Korea)
3) M1A2 SEP (Abrams successor) (United States)
4) Challenger 2 (Great Britain)
5) Armata (Russia)
6) Merkava Mk.4 (Israel)
7) Type 90 (Japan)
8) Leclerc (France)
9) Oplot-M (Ukraine)
10) T-90 (Russia)

 

Merkava Mk.4

Merkava Mk.4

 

Now let us research a little history. The United States had an arms embargo on Israel from its inception on May 15, 1948 until they agreed in 1965 to a limited sell of arms, M-48 Patton tanks, which were a main battle tank but was considered to be a medium tank weighing under fifty tons, to Israel through a 3rd party, West Germany. The United States finally lifted the arms embargo selling arms to Israel directly starting in 1969, mainly jet fighters, more Patton tanks and other ground vehicles. This began the United States arms agreements with Israel that becomes obvious in the graph below which shows United States aid to Israel from the beginning in 1948. What is significant is the reason behind this move, which was anything but altruistic. The United States arms industry at that time was largely dependent on its sales of F-15 and F-16 fighter jets that had mainly one rival, the Soviet Union. Of course, each had their basic sphere of nations that were purchasing these aircraft from the two super powers. With neither of these powers selling their aircraft to Israel and with both France and Britain deciding that their best allies in the Middle East were the oil wealthy Arab states, which meant they would have to be abandoning Israel. These left Israel with but one alternative, design and build their own jet fighter, and this was exactly what Israel proceeded to do. The Israelis had built a few prototype aircraft called the Lavi and would have been a competitor for the F-16 in particular as it was of similar design and use. This led the United States to make Israel an offer which she could not refuse. The United States would sell them F-16s and throw in a number of F-15s but Israel had to scrap the Lavi and depend on the United States for their aircraft. The United States also promised that they would assure Israel air superiority for the future. There have been a few episodes since that agreement that have left the promises increasingly suspect. Yes, currently the Israelis have little to worry about with President Trump when it comes to promised deliveries of weaponry and aid, but what about after President Trump. President Obama gave Israel a taste of a wake-up call but things could turn even worse in the future. Imagine if after President Trump actually serves two terms and then, just like after Ronald Reagan (not to claim or compare Trump with Reagan), Vice President Pence serves a single term claiming, “No more taxes,” and then is forced to raise taxes leading to a Democrat winning the Presidency as the conservatives desert the Republicans and simply stay home. The Democrats, after running Hillary again and her losing to Trump a second time, and then running their chairman, Tom Perez, against Pence and he loses. Then they move on to the current vice-chairman Keith Ellison against Pence where he defeats Pence leading to a President Keith Ellison. Look at his affiliations in the past and it becomes glaringly obvious that any relations between the United States and Israel would immediately become a thing relegated to history.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

The graph above which depicts the United States aid to Israel, presumed largely military aid, had averaged a fairly steady three-billion dollars per year. The aid has been instrumental in providing Israel with a military advantage but has also made Israel dependent upon the United States military aid. Certain years in the graph stand out as being excessive with 1973 being the greatest surge for a single year than any other. This was the year of the Yom Kippur War which caught Israel off guard and flat-footed with most of their active military on leave to attend services and the majority of their reservists also in Synagogue. There were no people manning telephones as Yom Kippur is one of, if not the, holiest days of the Jewish year and is a fast day where people spend the entire day in Synagogue deep in prayer. In the end, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) resorted to sending vehicles with bullhorns, sound systems and anything with which to send out the call driving up and down the streets from synagogue to synagogue calling out the troops. Units formed by officers grabbing anybody who had the correct insignia with infantry grabbing infantry, armor grabbing armor etcetera with them ending up just grabbing anybody and forming fighting units. Within a day or two, the mess sorted itself out and then the push back started and the war turned in Israel’s favor. In the result of the war the boundaries did not change and the United States and Russia demanded that Israel not advance any further and return to the previous lines from the Six Day War and not continue onward to Cairo, Alexandria or Damascus. Israel was in a particular position which called for drastic aid; they had lost too much equipment and were running short of everything from bullets to aircraft and missiles. Despite Secretary of State Kissinger’s advice to squeeze Israel and hold back on the resupply until Israel was more vulnerable, thus making Israel likely more pliable and agreeable to demands, President Nixon sent the aid as quickly as it could be gathered and flown to Israel. This posed a second problem when the European nations refused to permit the United States refueling rights for any aircraft carrying aid to Israel, especially military aid. There is a lesson in there for Israel but that can remain for the next United Nations vote to discuss. The United States finally received permission to refuel in Portugal so Lajes Field in the Azores Islands became the midpoint for the resupply runs. This was the saving grace permitting Israel to survive what would have otherwise resulted potentially in a second Shoah.

 

But what can Israel do, ask almost anybody claiming to be an expert on the Middle East and they will tell the same thing, Israel cannot survive without the United States money and military hardware. They are only partially correct. Israel needs the United States hardware for the time being but that can be remedied by Israeli inventiveness and a brief period of time. Israel has already purchased and paid for sufficient F-35 JSF Israeli versions to provide sufficient air superiority or equivalence for the near future. There was a time when Israel was considered one of the true weapon innovators in the world. They had what was considered one of the best fighting infantry rifles in the world with the Galil. The weapon in one variant had a bottle opener which could open a soda bottle, or better yet, a beer. The Israelis also designed and manufactured the world-renowned Uzi submachine gun.

 

A Galil infantry rifle and an Uzi submachine gun above with the Lavi in flight followed by the IAI Kfir below

A Galil infantry rifle and an Uzi submachine gun above with the Lavi in flight followed by the IAI Kfir below

 

So Israel has proven with her current main battle tank, the Merkava IV and her historic and proven ability to make her own weapons systems, to be fully capable. The fact the United States felt in the past that they needed to make a generous offer to prevent Israel producing her latest fighter aircraft is sufficient proof that Israel is capable of making his or her own aircraft. Israel has been producing some of the most advanced avionics which they have adapted to numerous airframes and aircraft over the years. So, with the ability for Israel to make their own weaponry, the real potential problem would be the affordability of making their own weapons and doing without the aid money given by the United States. We have established that the funds from the United States to Israel average around three-billion dollars each year. The latest aid package was negotiated by President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu coming to thirty-eight-billion dollars for the next decade. So the current aid level is three-billion-eight-hundred-thousand a year and then after another nine years the package ends and then a new one would be required or Israel, by planning ahead, could turn a new leaf and start being self-dependent. Israel could reenter the world of self-dependence and design and produce her own weaponry. The weapons such as an infantry rifle, a submachine gun, and other small arms and even artillery, self-propelled artillery which they could use the frame of a Merkava IV tank. The largest challenge is obvious, the aircraft, a fifth generation, or better, a sixth generation fighter aircraft or sixth generation fighter aircraft system which may or may not require the pilot be in the aircraft. Israel is a small enough nation that the aircraft defending the borders and close air superiority and support from within Israel using secure encoded telemetry is a feasible and actionable option. The one thing Israel has proven is the ability to innovate and be inventive. How else did Israel get to be called the Start-up Nation? But first Israel has to grow up and realize that they no longer require the defense and military aid money and can depend upon their own ability to afford weaponry without requiring outside funds. Let’s examine this possibility by examining the history of Israel GDP as depicted in the graph below.

 

Israeli GDP Billions $

Israeli GDP Billions $

 

Looking back to where the aid from the United States began in the period between 1965 through 1969 and we see that three-billion dollars a year was about equal to the Israeli GDP. Back then, it was impossible for Israel to raise such a sum of money, as it would have required its entire economy to support the military. Even in 1980 such as the aid from the United States was close to half of Israeli GDP. By the late 1990’s the aid was equal to around three percent of the Israeli GDP and would have been possible even then for Israel to have began defending itself without needing to rely on anyone else. Let us look at the reality of now and where Israel stands economically. The reality is that currently the Israeli GDP is sufficient where the military aid makes up merely one percent and would almost make up for the aid in the taxes paid by the additional workers in defense jobs, jobs which would be fairly well paying. With the military aid package from the United States being merely one percent of Israeli GDP, Israel can make a clean break on her own terms. Eventually the United States aid is going to end. It could have come close under President Obama and had Hillary Clinton won there are some who claim that she would have cut the aid at the first opportunity. Who knows, she might just get such an opportunity yet. And even if she does not, some President down the road is going to decide that the United States can no longer afford Israel and that will be that. Then Israel will have no buffer, no period of adjustment, just a clean, quick cut-off and left dangling without replacement parts for aircraft and whatever other equipment from the United States makes up her armament. Israel had just under a decade to start making the transfer and since the current agreement demands that every penny of the aid be spent in the United States, Israel could stock whatever parts she may require while proving that she can afford to make her own systems and be ready to strike out completely self-dependent into the future. That would make Israel truly capable of defending herself under any conditions or situations because she would be depending largely, nay, completely upon her own industry. That is the future Israelis deserve and the industry would provide thousands upon thousands of new and decent jobs across all levels of educations and abilities.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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