Beyond the Cusp

November 24, 2017

Who Starts the Next War?

 

Oh, the possibilities we have. Will it be Trump or Kim Jong-un, Saudi Royal Prince Mohammed bin Salman or the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the new Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar or Hezballah’s Leader Hassan Nasrallah or will it come out of the blue from an unexpected source responding to a terror attack or assassination as happened to start World War I? Will it perhaps be China moving on Taiwan or Russia finishing off the Ukraine or Georgia? It could simply be a severe escalation of Turkey’s private war against the Kurds in Syria and Iran spreading into a Kurdish rebellion within Turkey with the entirety of the Kurdish People finally demanding their own homeland refusing to be picked apart individually by Iran, Syria, Turkey, Iraq and any terror forces sent by the same or even Saudi Arabia or the Muslim Brotherhood. It might be the Basques or Catalan People of Catalonia declaring themselves independent from Spain with Spain having the obvious reaction and moving to end such as that might cause others to have similar thoughts causing the Balkanization of Spain. There are such movements within virtually every nation of Europe and likely the world. There are numerous other peoples in Northern Africa which currently are ruled over by foreign peoples who came along with the Islamic conquests of the Caliphate. One such are the Berbers, one of the tribes which converted to Islam only to be subsumed by Arab culture and rulers. The possibilities are endless but the real contenders come down to the first few listed as those are the least stable places with the most to gain or lose as the world moves forward.

 

The possibility that President Trump will start a war are, contrary to the wild accusations of some detractors, somewhere around nil. First, he would need a declaration from Congress for any actual war or even military actions. The Congress appears barely capable of passing the budget for a single year. Trump also has no taste for any conflict despite all of his bluster and even Kim Jong-un is aware that Trump was all talk and no teeth. This was part of why Kim Jong-un and Trump both have all but ended their contest of words, both realized the other was not about to start a war at this time, so tempting one was simply a waste of effort. So, North Korea and United States are not about to go to war, which should be a relief. If such a conflict were to come to fruition, we would predict that the North Koreans would attempt to make the initial strike forcing President Trump and the Congress to respond in kind. Thus, should a war ever come between the United States and North Korea, it would be at the insistence of North Korea.

 

The next pairing was between Saudi Royal Prince Mohammed bin Salman or the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the next directly in line to the crown of Saudi Arabia and has been assuming more and more power taking over responsibilities from his father, the aging and ailing King Salman. The Prince was the mastermind behind the Sunni forces which were routed in Syria and has mismanaged the Yemen-Saudi conflict allowing Iranian missiles and Hezballah and IRGC fighters to enter Yemen. Just last week an Iranian provided missile was launched from Yemen towards Riyadh. This was declared to have been an act of war by Iran against Saudi Arabia and there were rumors of an imminent war on the horizon. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also moved to secure his own position by arresting for criminal corruption close to a dozen of his closest relatives, cousins, leader of the National Guard, governor of Riyadh, and the internationally renowned Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

 

Further, Prince Salman has promised, or threatened, to westernize, or modernize, Saudi Arabia in an attempt to improve the economy such that it is not entirely dependent upon their oil wealth. The religious class, the clerics and heads of the Wahabbists, are very much opposed to such a plan seeing it as a direct threat to their power and influences on Saudi politics and direction. They have lived off the Royal Family paying them, rewarding them richly from the oil wealth such that they would back the Royal Family permitting them to remain in power. This arrangement left out one very important group, the people of Saudi Arabia who were sentenced to a life of moderations and poverty in far too many instances with lacking education and little chance for improvement.

 

Saudi Arabia and Iran War

Saudi Arabia and Iran War

 

All but needless to say, but a war is actually the last thing Saudi Arabia needs, now or at any time. Should such a war with Iran become inevitable, the winner, if there actually would be a winner, would not gain much and the loser would lose everything. It is for this reason such a war would be devastating to the Middle East and would also have a great possibility to spread and involve other countries. With the Iranians, one could expect Yemen, Iraq, Qatar, what is left of Syria, Lebanon and Turkey, while with Saudi Arabia, one would expect the Gulf States of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council which includes Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman), Jordan and eventually Egypt. There are some wildcards in the equation which include Pakistan, India, Israel and the United States. Pakistan actually could be thought to assist either side as they trade with Iran but they also owe Saudi Arabia for providing the necessary cash required to finance their drive for nuclear weapons. India does have a fair number of trade deals with Iran and they do have a common neighbor in Pakistan plus share the waterway, the Arabian Sea. Israel and the United States are the real game-changers which could completely alter the outcome of the conflict but are also the least likely to enter such a conflict, especially should the Saudi Arabians be the initiator of the conflict. Should Iran start such a conflict, then the probability that Israel or the United States would be greater, especially if the Saudis appeared to be on the losing end.

 

Estimating who would win such a war would need to weigh far too many variables. The basic equation places the newer and superior equipment and technology having bought $350 billion arms deal this year alone. But the Iranians have the population numbers and their military has been tested in Syria and thus experienced, especially the IRGC and Hezballah, the core fighters Iran would use for the tip of their spear. The Saudi Arabian military are known to march very nicely and have little to no actual experience in actual combat. The best equipment cannot make up for lack of experience and experience only mitigates lesser weaponry partially, so the question is which would be the greater equalizer and how long would this difference provide superior fighting ability. In the end, the real question comes down to whether Russia would assist Iran and do so at sufficient a level before the United States decided they needed to assist the Saudi Arabian side of the conflict. The final wildcards bring a nuclear answer to this conflict should nobody use such earlier as Iran is suspected of having nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia is rumored to have an agreement with Pakistan to provide as many as a dozen such weapons on demand. These wildcards are North Korea and their eight-hundred-pound gorilla which often accompanies them in endeavors, China. One could trace how a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could draw in other nations until it would become the next World War, World War III. Such a war, according to Albert Einstein, would guarantee that the following World War, World War IV, would be fought with sticks and stones. We are thinking of going and picking up some stones tomorrow.

 

The real question we should be answering is, who might be planning to spread their influence and do so successfully enough that they become a threat to the peace of the entire planet? North Korea has talked of conquest but it has mostly been about the Korean peninsula and occasionally of the United States, and that second is simply bluster for domestic consumption. China appears readying to become the Pacific hegemon sharing that title with the United States and have raised expectations that they will be the first to build a Moon base. Japan has also talked of plans to place a base on the Moon in the near future. The United States and Russia have talked of Moon bases as well. Hopefully, the next war that threatens humanity will not be a Moon War where Moon bases start shooting at each other. The Moon race will hopefully be used to initiate cooperation instead of conflict. So, fortunately, the Moon is unlikely to spark the next World War. There have been accusations that Israel desires to conquer much of the lands surrounding them forcefully displacing the Muslim populations. That is pure propaganda which is provably false, as Israel has given up claims to land such as the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza in efforts to reach peace with varying amounts of success. Then there is Iran which has spread their control since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran has made claims that they intend to destroy Israel and the United States, establish a Shiite Crescent across the heart of the Middle East (see map below). The truth is Iran is in the stage of cementing their Shiite Crescent and may be looking further starting with Yemen.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

The one item which Iran has claimed to desire is represented on the map above by the big green star, that covers Mecca and Medina, which along with the oil fields in the northeast of Saudi Arabia make up the targets upon which Iran has set their eyes. Iran has also made constant references to the Persian Empire and reestablishing exactly such hegemony over the Middle East and reaching all the way into Greece and Egypt which was once the extent of the Persian Empire. Both the founder, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini, and his successor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei, have both made references to spreading Shia Islam over the entire planet fulfilling the promises given by Allah in the Quran for Islam to rule the planet. There have been Sunni Muslims who also claimed they would fulfill the same promises such as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and Hamas. Al-Qaeda and Islamic State do not appear to have had much success in this effort and Hamas appears to be currently stymied by Israel and if they were to spread any form of Islam, it would probably be Shia since, just like Hezballah, Hamas is now in the service of Iran. For all intents and purposes, the only groups or nations with any current abilities which have also expressed the desire for word conquest all appear to be serving or are Iran. Additionally, Iran has spoken of their intention to erase the nation of Israel from the map commenting that Israel would be a one-bomb nation once they have sufficient nuclear weapons. They have also shared research with North Korea and shared tactics for a southern approach for using an orbital nuclear weapon to deliver and EMP to the United States destroying much of the electrical infrastructure. The real question that the world needs to address is who is going to stop Iran, when do they plan on starting and what it will take for people to take the concept of Iranian world conquest seriously. Ask almost anyone other than a minority of military leadership about Iran declaration of intent for world conquest; they will laugh at you as if you are insane if not actually trying to get you some medical assistance for your obvious problems. We all may as well face the fact that nobody believes in world conquest by any nation any more now, than anyone had in 1933 when Germany talked of world conquest. The world did finally respond to Germany but had they worked to prevent Germany from building up their military the world would have been saved the horrors of World War II. Iran has spread its influence across the Middle East, has all but surrounded Saudi Arabia, had closed in on Israel on three borders and has control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait giving them control over oil shipments to the world and the southern exit from the Red Sea blocking any use of the Suez Canal. How far does Iran need to go to prove they intend to try to conquer the world for Allah and Shiite Islam? This is a question which may get more important as time passes, or we may get fortunate and their efforts fail from reaching any critical point where preventing them becomes an absolute necessity, which would mean they have reached military capabilities making world conquest a possibility.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 2, 2015

Will it be a Good Year Too?

Filed under: 24/7 News Reporting,Administration,Afghanistan,al-Qaeda,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Arab Appeasement,Arab League,Arab World,Arabs,Balkans,Bashir al-Assad,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Borders,Cabinet,Calaphate,Canada,Civil War,Civilization,Conflict Avoidnce,Court Order,Domestic NGOs,Economy,Equal Responsibility,Equal Rights,Equal Treatment,Equality,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Media,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fatah,Fatah Charter,Foreign Funding,Foreign NGOs,France,Government,Government Controlled Media,Hamas,Hamas Charter,Hate,History,Internal Pressures,International Politics,Intifada,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Israeli Media,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jews,Jihad,Jordan Valley,Jordanian Pressure,Judea,Judicial Activism,Kobane,Leftist Pressures,Mahmoud Abbas,Mainstream Media,Malmo,Media,Middle East,Ministers,Muslim World,Muslims,One State Solution,Oppression,Oslo Accords,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parliament,Parliamentary Government,Peace Process,Pogroms,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Vladimir Putin,Prime Minister,Prime Minister,Recep Tayyip Erdogan,Resolution,Russia,Russian Pressure,Samaria,San Remo Conference,Saudi Arabian Pressure,Secular Interests,Security,Sharia Law,Soviet Union,Statehood,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,Third Intifada,Turkey,Two State Solution,Ukraine,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,United States Pressure,Warsaw Pact,West Bank,World Government,World Media,World Opinion,World Pressures,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 4:37 AM
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Yesterday we took a somewhat longer view of our universe which can be read here, but now let’s take a look at items a little closer to this year alone and things we can examine closer to the here and now. The first news read on page one or heard on news broadcasts might have been about the petition filed by Jordan before the Security Council as the agents for the Palestinian Authority demanding the Security Council act to basically force Israel to surrender to the territorial demands without any demand for the Palestinians to make peace was not passed missing by a single vote. There will be many editorials examining why the petition failed and in many instances there will be questions as to what actions were taken by Israel to possibly affect Rwanda, Nigeria and Britain that they abstained when predictions from different news organizations had listed combinations of these as the last votes which were thought to be in the Palestinian support column. Reacting immediately to their defeat, the Palestinian Authority in its numerous manifestations acted to join various conventions including and starting with the Rome Convention in order to attempt to call Israel onto the carpet before the International Criminal Court (ICC) on various charges of crimes against humanity and various war crime charges. If Israel were a normal nation these charges would be thrown out without any consideration, but Israel has the advantage, as does the United States and other nations, fearful of being subjected to specious accusations forcing them to be spending an inordinate amounts of time and treasure fighting one charge after the other, of placing themselves outside of the full jurisdiction by retracting themselves or having never joined the ICC, thus leaving them subjected to only a very limited number of acts or accusations emanating from the ICC. The nations who have placed themselves under such a state of exclusion from the complete power to be adjudicated before the ICC have not had efforts made to force them to stand before the court in contradiction to their electing to decide not to be within the full jurisdiction of the court, but we may soon see if Israel will be the first to be demanded to stand before the ICC despite their not being a member after the Palestinian Authority or one of its numerous manifestations bring charges against Israel at the ICC. Where the filing of charges by Mahmoud Abbas and the Authority is not a guaranteed certainty, yet the decision will not be decided or even the slightest bit influenced by the actual fact of whether Israel can legally be brought before the ICC on the more than likely specious charges. But there is always the one unknown, whenever something includes Israel in the equation, evidence soon proves that Israel is not treated the same as other nations and things for which no other nation would be excoriated and forced to be subjugated to adjudication despite presumably being beyond the jurisdiction under the ICC authority. So, it might not prove to be all that surprising, though there will be those newscasters breathlessly commenting as to the potential priority setting situation should Israel actually be brought to answer against the charges filed with the ICC by Saab Erekat and Mahmoud Abbas. These reports will logically be followed by breathless interviews with numerous spokespersons including our culprits, Saab Erekat and Mahmoud Abbas, with easy softball questions and supportive commentary expressing sympathy for and verification of their cause and agreement that the seriousness of their charges demands an exception as there must be resolution for these accusations, the rules be damned. There will also be interviews of Israelis, especially such as Prime Minister Netanyahu and any others who are named in the accusations, where the attitude will be even more accusatory than a television dramatic prosecutor, as that is the part they are actually assuming, with demands that guilt for the charges be admitted berating the interviewee severely as if that would be sufficient to presage the newscaster’s hunger for an admission of guilt from any of the Israelis subjected to this trial by media. This little scenario may even play out throughout the year as new charges are filed and other agencies are sought in further attempts to vilify Israel and bring her down by a continuous barrage of accusations as the latest manner of assault. The Geneva Convention in numerous different areas and treaties were also signed by Mahmoud Abbas granting yet another friendly venue for more charges and then there will be the attempt by Abbas and Iran, Turkey, Qatar, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan and who knows what other Arab or Muslim nations will join demanding that Israeli be forced to sign onto the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) thus also demanding that Israel destroy any nuclear weapons they possess as well as decommissioning their research reactor at Dimona in the Negev Desert. The reactions from the community of nations will tell more about the nations of the world than it will about Israel.

 

Russia will continue to be an extension of President Vladimir Putin’s desires to return Russia, and through Russia also aggrandizing himself, to its former glories as the Soviet Union by slowly ratcheting up pressures on the closest former Warsaw Pact nations. He may renew pressuring Georgia, providing arms and potentially providing fighters in the eastern provinces of the Ukraine in efforts to break them away and place a puppet government over the territories. Then there is what appears to be the next target predicted for Russian interest, Moldova. Where it is true that Moldova is a small nation, it also is located centrally between Romania and the Ukraine which means that should Putin gain leverage over Moldova, he will then have a base with which to threaten the western border of the Ukraine making the situation in the Ukraine even more volatile than it currently appears to be. What makes such a move even more dangerous is the fact that in 1992 Moldova was accepted into NATO and has remained a NATO member nation ever since. Any Russian moves on Moldova would have consequences far beyond the Ukraine or Romania, which are the two nations surrounding the small nation, but would also be a direct challenge to the NATO treaty for mutual defense by all nations should any nation under the NATO umbrella be attacked. Should United States President Obama refuse to act or only act by ‘leading from behind’, as he has shown a preference for doing, then Putin might decide that NATO is a paper tiger making her member nations susceptible to attack without any risk of further escalation. Such an indication might trigger Putin making good on his off-the-cuff remark made a few months back in a moment of bravado claiming that he could take any and all NATO countries without suffering any repercussions from the remaining NATO nations. Making a move to take Poland as well as all the smaller nations right on the Russian border might even appear to be something which would carry little downside.

 

There are those who have predicted that President Vladimir Putin would be driven from office in a response to the crash of the Russian nation’s currency taking it from Ruble to Rubble. Recent polling shows Putin still well regarded by the Russian public carrying near eighty-five percent approval, certainly not the sign of a leader in trouble at home. Putin will continue to present a threat to the nations nearest Russia as increasing Russian territory is nearly guaranteed to spur economic growth to aid the Russian economy out of its current difficulties. There is one silver lining in this dark cloud which is the Russian economy, with the decreased worth of the Ruble, this priced the Russian oil and natural gas at a far lower than before the downward spiral thus protecting Russia from the petroleum warfare being waged against Iran by Saudi Arabia. We can expect Russia to also make the news with Iran in their mutual support for Syrian President for Life Bashir al-Assad against the rebel forces largely consisting of forces allied in an al-Qaeda with the majority of the rest belonging to ISIS. We should not expect for Bashir al-Assad to fall from power or stop the extreme methods he has employed against the rebel forces, ISIS and his own people. No matter who prevails in Syria, the victory will be a Pyrrhic victory, as the entire nation has been devastated with the majority of the infrastructure being completely destroyed. The most important yet devastating development to come as a result of the Syrian Civil War has been the rise of ISIS and their control of much of central Iraq and a swath of land across Syria reaching almost to the Turkish border where they were stopped dead at the northern city of Kobane where Kurdish Peshmerga Militias are making a desperate and unbelievable stand.

 

Speaking of Kobane brings us to one of the more desperately unfortunate events which have been unfolding as if in slow motion, the Islamification of Turkey slowly turning back almost one-hundred years of progress by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Erdogan has singlehandedly undone the carefully crafted safeguards by which Turkey had been secularized in the aftermath of World War I and the defeat of the Ottoman Empire by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Turkey was included in NATO during the Cold War in order to seize control of the Bosphorus Straights which gave NATO the ability to stop all shipping traffic from the Black Sea into the Mediterranean Sea and from there to the Atlantic Ocean. This gave the NATO allies a way of monitoring and potentially trapping the Soviet Union’s access to the Atlantic as their sole warm water port was in the Crimean, the same port that Russia has grabbed by their assuming control over the Crimea from the Ukraine. President Erdogan has been serving the interests of the Muslim Brotherhood openly with the silent consent of United States President Obama. Erdogan found his best ally in transforming Turkey back into an Islamist state in the European Union where the nations of the European Union with the assistance of the United States then President George W. Bush when they prevented the ranking generals of the military from performing a coup as their reaction as tasked by the Turkish Constitution where it stated that should the Turkish government be detected moving the nation back into the arms of Islamic Sharia that the military must step in and end such governance. Then the Turkish military was tasked with overseeing elections permitting only a secular government to form before returning civilian control. This method had been utilized in 1960 and again in 1980 and was almost going to occur once again around 2004-5 but the European Union warned the Turkish military that the nations within the European Union, which Turkey is trying desperately to join, do not allow for the military to rise up against the civilian government for any reason even if such power is vested in the military to preserve the secular nature of the nation. This basically froze the military’s power and Erdogan slowly but inexorably replaced those generals who were opposed to the direction he was steering the nation. President Erdogan is still moving Turkey away from Europe and NATO and towards the Muslim Brotherhood and seemingly illuminating the imposition of Sharia on all of Turkey. President Erdogan has also waged a low-level war of attrition against the Kurds which has been expanded since to include arming, training and financing the Sunni rebels fighting against Syrian President al-Assad. With the Kurdish also fighting against al-Assad, Erdogan had to decide whether he would aid the Kurds in Syria, and especially in Kobane where the Kurds were getting desperate. This led to allowing the Kurdish Peshmerga Militias from Iraq to enter Syria from Turkey and aid the Kurdish fighters. The Islamization of Turkey is likely to continue unabated and Turkey will probably continue to aid ISIS as best as they are able mostly by reselling the oil from Iraq using that marketing as the easiest way to both provide Turkey with revenue while also funding ISIS.

 

Turkey is not the only nation being inexorably moved into compliance with the Sharia as many of the European nations have minority neighborhoods which are imposing Sharia as the laws within their controlled neighborhoods. These enclaves are almost exclusively inhabited by Muslims with only a small numbers of the original Europeans still reside in these enclaves and they too would have moved given the opportunity. There are those who claim that it is these new immigrants which spend their time protesting against Israel and are also responsible for the increased anti-Semitism. Unfortunately it is not exclusively the immigrant population who are responsible for the recent escalating numbers of anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and anti-Semitic crimes which have increased so significantly that the increases are not measurable as easily as a percentage but rather as a multiplier. Had the increases been merely a percentage such as an increase of fifteen percent, twenty percent numbers like that might have been the new immigrant populations and as such acceptable as an explanation. Perhaps even fifty percent or even anything less than ninety percent but when countries are measuring increases of incidents of violent anti-Semitic acts increasing by four times, five times and in some cities even worse numbers, we are talking increases above, if measured by percentages, numbers of more than seven-hundred percent and those numbers require more than just the new immigrants. Do these immigrants count for a large number? Yes, but not the entirety. One need only look at the evening news to see that at some rallies the participants are not immigrants. When the banners carry the Golden Dawn logo we are not looking at immigrants. The same goes for the Jobbik Party demonstrations. When a Mayor of a major city, one of the five largest in that nation, and the mayor tells the Rabbi of a community which has resided in that city for centuries that the Jews will no longer be safe and there is nothing that can be done to protect them, that is more than the new immigrants. The Jews have seen this before when in the first decade and a half after the founding of the state of Israel we saw this in one Arab country after the other where the Jews were told by a friend that it would be better if they left, if they left and moved to that country of theirs. First it was in individual small towns and villages and eventually became the entire nation regurgitating their Jews. We saw it in Russia in the seventies and eighties. We saw it here in Europe right after World War II when many returned to their homes from before the horrors they had already suffered and when returning to their town only to be met with some family living in their home as the bombs destroyed half of the town and they had to live somewhere and we were not there, so, you do what you have to do. Not everywhere was like this, but still, anyone receiving such a greeting returning from the camps was a bit much. What was the answer every time? We heard you would not be returning, half the homes were hit by bombs, artillery, whatever. What were we told? Go to that country you are founding. Where will the Jews of today go; America? Canada? Israel? We may as well realize that eventually we will all end up together again in Israel as even Canada and the United States are seeing the beginnings of what has metastasized in Europe. The entirety of the world is going to be spitting out their Jews and yet when we find ourselves in Israel, the place everybody tells us is our nation and where we belong, then we get there and are told that is not ours either. If not Israel, where else is there? We asked this question once before in “If Not Israel Where do the Jews Belong? and nobody had an answer then. My bet is nobody has an answer now either. Maybe if every nations sent us here then can we please have all of the lands you once promised we could use for our little corner in the world, our really little corner in the world? Just allow us sovereignty over the lands west of the Jordan River and east of the Mediterranean Sea and allow us to live in peace and in return we will make advances in whatever fields we touch and we will share them with the world just as we have always done. We are a sharing people which we have always been ever since we shared what we received on two stone tablets. Perhaps you remember those ten rules we shared with all the societies on earth; we shared the one enduring set of laws that really were written in stone, twice. We merely asked that others observe seven that Noah recounted after the flood as what his family could base a just and civil society, just Seven Noahic Codes; that’s all.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 15, 2013

Has the United States Missed Another Golden Opportunity?

Filed under: Absolutism,Administration,Advanced Weapions Systems,Afghanistan,al-Qaeda,Alawite,Amalekites,Appeasement,Arab Spring,Arab Winter,Arab World,Arms Transfer,Austerity Measures,Banking Failure,Bashir al-Assad,Blood Libel,Britain,British Mandate,Calaphate,Chemical Weapons,China,Civilization,Colonial Possession,Conflict Avoidnce,Corruption,Cost of Living,Covert Actions,Dhimmi,Dictator,Direct Elections,Ditherer in Chief,Earnings,Economic Fascism,Economy,Egypt,Egyptian Military,Elections,EMP Device,Employment,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Failed State,Georgia,Government,Hamid Karzai,Hate,History,ICBM,Income,Inteligence Report,International Politics,Iran,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,IRGC,Islam,Islam,Islamic State,Israel,Jihad,Jobs,Kiev,Kurdish Militias,Kurdistan,Kurds,Military,Military Advisors,Military Aid,Military Base,Military Council,Military Coup,Military Intervention,Military Option,Muslim Brotherhood,Muslim World,Nonjudicial Assassination,North Korea,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons Test,Pakistan,Politics,President Obama,President Viktor Yanukovich,President Vladimir Putin,Pressure by Egyptian People,Promised Land,Rebel Forces,Register to Vote,Russia,Russian Pressure,Saudi Arabia,Sharia,Shiite,Soviet Union,Sunni,Syria,Syrian Free Army,Syrian Military,Taqiyya,Terror,Threat of War,Tribe,Troop Withdrawal,Tunisia,Turkey,Ukraine,Under Employment,Unemployment,United States,War Threat,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,Worker's Strike,World Opinion,World Pressures — qwertster @ 4:39 AM
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The past quarter of a century has experienced a world going through some seismic political transformations, some more surprising than others and some completely expected, but solely in hindsight. The first major quake on the political landscape was the collapse of the Soviet Union and the dissolving of the Warsaw Pact. In hindsight the collapse of the Soviet Union made complete sense and seemed like it should have been expected, yet it was not. The dissolving of the Warsaw Pact was the great opportunity for the Western Nations, especially those in NATO, but it ended up an opportunity lost. Admitting Poland into NATO, reuniting Germany, and accepting slowly some of the central Eastern European nations into NATO was an obvious move. What was the missed opportunity was the acceptance of the farthest Eastern European nations into NATO which was an opportunity lost. Yes, it would have required effort in order to secure these nations as democratic and free in the Western model but that was doable. Instead President George H. W. Bush wasted his efforts attempting to woo Russia to join NATO as a subservient secondary power to the United States and probably Britain and Germany as well if not France and others. Russia was never going to sit on the same side of the table as their arch enemy since the end of World War II because there was simply too much history of bad blood between the West and the remnant of the Soviet Union’s heart, Russia. Still, the United States pumped billions upon billions of dollars into Russia thinking there would be something to show for their investments and there has been, a stronger Russia than had they been left in the cold until they agreed to play nice and make a fully and long lasting unipolar world. Instead we have a rescued Russia now challenging a listless and inattentive United States that has been bumbling around on the world stage without any true direction seemingly pilotless. The United States is doing exactly what President Obama said they would do, “leading from behind”, which is a sophisticated way of saying following and letting the world dictate to the United States rather than actually fulfilling her role as the world superpower. By the time President Obama leaves office, assuming he does, the United States will be disregarded by China, Russia, and very probably a nuclear armed Iran which will hold hegemony over the oil states in the Middle East.

 

The other major seismic change was the originally named Arab Spring which we and others eventually saw to call the Arab Winter. The path that resulted from the uprisings against the dictators starting in Tunisia and progressing through Egypt, Libya and on had been earlier demonstrated when in 1979 under the watchful eye of President Jimmy Carter when Iran threw off the dictatorial Shah and installed an Islamist government which was even more oppressive than the Shah had been. The only difference was that these were Sunni countries and not Shiite countries so the Muslim Brotherhood rose to power. Thus far none of the nations that experienced a transformation as part of the Arab revolts has returned to a peaceful life free from terrorism, shooting wars in the streets and general mayhem disrupting everyday life. The worst of these is obviously Syria followed by Yemen, Libya and on through Egypt and Tunisia. Egypt may be the only one which may be spared an Islamist dark ages as the people rose up a second time and the military took that opportunity to execute a coup, whether anybody cares to call it by that name it was still a coup. Tunisia may be the next nation to throw off their Islamist rulers that usurped power in the elections after the revolution as the people in Tunisia are still rising up demanding the government address the weak economy and the rampant poverty resulting from poor governance. Tunisia bears watching and if any nation desires to do the right thing, perhaps some assistance before the secularists are beaten down by Islamist fascists could enable changes towards a more liberated society and the improved economy such might facilitate. Libya has devolved into tribal warfare which shows little signs of waning. Iraq is being consumed by a Shiite-Sunni war with Iran and the government of Iraq fighting against al-Qaeda and Muslim Brotherhood forces in the resumption of an ancient struggle for the heart of Islam. Syria, well, Syria is Iraq on steroids with such violence that whoever wins will not really win much as much of Syria has been utterly destroyed and it will be months, likely decades, before Syria will be capable of even the slightest of an economy. Meanwhile Afghanistan has been courting Iran as a replacement for the United States which Afghanistan is contemplating removing unceremoniously after the next elections. Currently Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai is holding United States President Obama hostage demanding he will sign the continued American military presence only after the election implying that the Americans need to assure Karzai wins reelection. Fortunately there was little if anything that could have been done politically to alter the results as the Muslim Brotherhood was the only organized political force existent within the Sunni nations. The Shiite nations all fall under the sway of Iran which will likely start sewing unrest in Shiite majority nations and areas such as the Northeast Saudi oil fields once the disasters in Iraq and Syria are concluded and they have tested a nuclear device in order to protect their efforts from outside interferences.

 

There is unrest currently rocking Kiev particularly and the Ukraine generally over President Viktor Yanukovych’s decision to cancel a deal to integrate Ukraine with the European Union under duress from Russia’s Putin threatening to cut trade relations and other threats in order to hold on to the former Soviet possession. This is a direct result of inaction by the Western nations, especially the United States. The Ukraine has been available to incorporate into NATO if the other NATO countries had been more flexible, agreeable and afforded the Ukraine and other central Eurasian nations that were freed with the fall of the Soviet Union. There is plenty of blame to spread over the long list of Presidents of the United States who dropped the ball which include George H W Bush, William Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama. The European Union does not get off without some culpability as they have not exactly bent over backwards to assist the Ukraine entering the European Union. This may be the final chance to provide the Ukraine with an exit from under the thumb of Putin and Russian influence. Making demands that the Ukraine must meet including political changes is not facilitating an easy transfer from Russian orbit to joining the European Union. The path from Soviet possession to democratic governance was particularly difficult for the Ukraine and other former Soviet possessions. Especially Georgia, which attempted to break free and join with the West, only to be left hanging as Russian tanks rolled across their border reestablishing Russian influence using aiding the breakaway South Ossetia Province as their reason for invading Georgia. Just add Georgia to the list of countries that attempted to gain freedom only to be left hanging helplessly before Soviet style tactics employed by ex KGB Russian President Putin. Will the Ukraine be the next notch on Putin’s gun belt? The unfortunate answer is that it is very likely as there is nobody in the West who appears ready to do anything to intervene and provide an alternative to caving to Russian pressures. Yet another opportunity squandered. History will possibly call this the quarter century squandered that allowed whatever conflicts that will result to the lack of vision by Western leaders who were blind to great and fleeting opportunities.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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