Beyond the Cusp

November 2, 2015

Who Leads the Free World?

 

The United States has for the time abrogated their right to be the leader of the free world. Despite the United States military being the most capable and well-armed and trained that the world has ever witnessed, they have been relegated to sentry duty and policing their own areas and otherwise been retreating from the world scene. The rumors that President Obama has recognized his error and is about to send some troops to fight against the Islamic State is but fifty troops who are not to engage beyond being spotters for air strikes and possibly performing training the indigenous troops will only cause the Islamic State to shift their positions more often, set up more dummy camps which look and sound on radio chatter as if they are an actual base and also doing a similar thing with tank formations in order to get the United states to waste their ordinance striking decoys just as was done in the Balkans.

 

Where next to look? Europe might be a logical place when one judges solely by history, but after World War II the United States basically neutered the Europeans such that their navies basically were relegated to the strength to perform coastal patrols and little more and their armies were basically reduced such that to field an effective army sized assault would take a combined force of much of the European Union nations which would lead to numerous other problems such as unit cohesion and command and control protocols and division of risk and other minutia some of which would still be important. Oddly enough the two nations in the free world who might have the resources militarily might be Canada and Australia but both currently have governments which would preclude their taking such grand risks. India has a respectable sized military but their equipment and training would likely need upgrading and the time to teach their commanders throughout the ranks how to utilize the features of modern command and control with which warfare becomes more effective and individual units with the right support made available in a timely manner and knowing how to anticipate such requirements through analysis would take quite some time. Much of the rest of the world are beyond consideration simply due to their voting records in the General Assembly which also would make a number of Europeans suspect as well. If one were to record all the votes taken in the past seventy-five years in the United Nations General Assembly one of the countries, the very few and possibly only nation, that had voted nearly if not perfect with the United States is Israel.

 

There are a few others which vote most often with the United States both in the Security Council and in the General Assembly. Those are Canada, Czech Republic, Israel, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Nauru, Panama, and Palau. Together the army they could raise even if the rest of the European Union nations were added as well as Australia, Japan, India and the Philippines and your fieldable force would not exactly be formidable. The only nations to actively challenge United States President Barack Obama and the rest of the nations in backing the horrific Iran nuclear deal, which guarantees Iran developing and becoming a nuclear armed state in approximately an even dozen years should they obey the terms and if they do not obey the terms and simply go as fast as they are able then, by this time next year probably the Iranians will have produced three to ten deliverable weapons depending on how much Highly Enriched Uranium they have already stored at some undisclosed location plus the amounts they can produce running all their centrifuges running full-speed in long cascades all the time. But wait, it could be worse and in many ways it already is.

 

There are other major problems around the globe and more specifically across the Arab world of the Middle East and extending through Northern Africa (MENA). Taking the lead in this troubled region are Syria and Libya, not a total surprise. Another contender would have been Egypt if not for the secondary protests which demanded the army take control and run new elections where more parties which formed as a result of the initial efforts of the Arab Spring, an idea which implicitly bore witness to the chaos which has swept other regions as well emanating from the lack of the guidance and “interference” by the United States. The leading from behind was more like leading from within the gates of the White House as President Obama was leading from so far behind the United States almost had no influence and was of little assistance after the governments started collapsing. What was supposed to be an Arab Spring rapidly became the Arab Winter. The fracturing in Libya into tribal enclaves and Islamist sects, all of which take little note of those claiming to be the nation’s government though they control only most of the capital city of Tripoli. Syria has presented the world with the spectacle of a bloodbath which has claimed the lives of approaching half a million civilians and large numbers of military and militia casualties. The entrance of an overtly strong and well organized group took such advantage to grasp large tracks of lands in both Syria and in another area where death and chaos reigned in central Iraq’s Sunni areas. This group is of course the Junior Varsity, as referred to early on when if the United States President had entered the battle in strength for a brief period in the early stages they could have struck the forming Islamic State inflicting serious damage and death and possibly have captured or killed much of their leadership returning the forces into the disarray they suffered from before being organized by the Islamic State. Now this group commands lands greater in size than the United Kingdom and will likely grow stronger and gain more followers swearing their fealty all across the central Arab Middle East. The United States response had been an extremely weak and ineffective bombing campaign where often pilots return with their ordinance still in place as their target area had no targets and their search for suitable targets were unsuccessful and they were forced to return to base when fuel ran low. The fifty man force about to be unleashed by President Obama will likely prove the greatest military farce of his Presidency.

 

 

Display of the Muslim Nations of the World in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa in Green with Israel depicted in Red making the relative size of Israel evident and consisting of under one percent of the land mass

Display of the Muslim Nations of the World in the Middle East, Asia and Northern Africa in Green with Israel depicted in Red

 

 

The Middle East is not the only problem though when the problem is financial; its effects are more readily concealable. The difficulties in Europe can also be traced back to the United States as when the American public’s buying power becomes strapped, then every market in the world loses their primary market. In Europe the economic situation grew so severe in a number of states with Greece and Spain being unable to cover their difficulties and Greece even having riots over the difficulties and many police departments turning to foot patrols in the neighborhoods closest to the station houses as their vehicles were out of gas and the precinct out of funds. Some Fire Departments ran on crews who were often unpaid but had firefighters who refused to allow such an inconvenience to leave the people unprotected from fires. These were the modern heroes.

 

Meanwhile, even with the encouragement of President Obama who has signaled through unofficial channels which have included members of his administration have encouraged former allies of the United States of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the rest of the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to actively seek assistances and alliances with Soviet Russian holdover of the old ways and now President of modern Russia Vladimir Putin, though some of his actions prove his throwback to a former age and desiring to force things back to the good old days with success while the United States remains almost inert, as the United States has taken a pull back on all fronts as the United States imposing militarism was declared by President Obama to be one of the two most damaging influences causing all the strife in the world with the mere existence of the state of Israel being the other evil influence which may explain the cold treatment of Israel and her Prime Minister by the American leader and many in his cabinet and shadow cabinet of Czars. It never occurred to the Obama Administration that the United States presence in near every hotspot was as those tasked to address the situation and as repair and assist and not causality.

 

This misperception has also been expanded to the Arab/Israeli conflict. President Obama and many of his advisors, particularly Susan Rice, Valerie Jarrett and Samantha Power were known anti-Israel, anti-Zionist and probably anti-Semitic problem children. The near universal denials of the slant to Israeli against Israeli security through supporting even the most absurd of Arab Palestinian demands and claims might be causes for concern for Israel and her security and being just one more administration to take the position that it is Israeli settling their ancient homelands and fulfilling Torah that are the problem and the Arab Palestinians are an oppressed indigenous peoples despite the Jewish presence documented to reach back near four-thousand year history and constant existence in Jerusalem since David took the city thirty-five-hundred year ago. This position has slowly been eroding as more and more leaders and people throughout the world have begun to realize that Arab intransigence and demanding that Israel be destroyed and that the destruction of the Jewish State and the genocidal slaughter of her peoples are the primary desire of Mahmoud Abbas and the rest of the Arab Palestinian cause. The next realization that will hopefully hatch within their consciousness is that Israel had already given up the entirety of the Gaza Strip in August of 2005, which was soon taken from Mahmoud Abbas and his Arab Palestinian Authority by Hamas and a host of terrorist Islamist entities; returned the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula, which is easily three times the size of Israel itself; plus the Zionist Congress when working to form the Jewish State agreed to permit the British to form Transjordan (Jordan) from over three-fourths the lands of the British Mandate surrendering the lands east of the Jordan river and reaching to Iraq on the east, Syria to the north and Saudi Arabia to the south; so all told, Israel has surrendered sufficient land mass to have increased the actual size of Israel close to ten times. So, do not claim that Israel has not returned or released their claims to land; that is a total myth and quite fallacious a myth at that.

 

 

Eretz Yisroel from back in the time immediately after Exodus and before the additional conquest by King David and King Solomon with the original division of the lands between the Tribes covering both sides of the Jordan River. The Israelis and Jews in general could attempt to demand that Eretz Yisroel, the Land of Israel be made whole as was First Apportioned by Hashem.

Eretz Yisroel from back in the time immediately after Exodus and before the additional conquest by King David and King Solomon with the original division of the lands between the Tribes covering both sides of the Jordan River. The Israelis and Jews in general could attempt to demand that Eretz Yisroel, the Land of Israel be made whole as was First Apportioned by Hashem.

 

 

So, with the United States Executive Branch under President Obama and reflecting his beliefs which reflect with great credit the church he and his family attended for twenty years under the anti-Israel, anti-American, anti-Judeo-Christian ethic and beliefs Pastor the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, it is little surprise that in President Obama’s foreign policy has reflected his animosities and complete lack of foreign policy expertise. This has led to the retreat by the United States on all fronts and allowed for the brash adventuresome actions by American adversaries of Russia and China, amongst others which have bordered on being temerarious, risky and posing a serious threat to any President who follows these policies and their implications if and when such a foreign policy focused President might be elected. The foolhardiness of the American populace who are well permitted to ignore the outside and greater world and simply be concerned with their domestic situations, pretend that economics were their driving passions and even appear to have fallen for an idea whose time was claimed had come and the first Black President be placed in the White House and for his catchy and easily remembered themes of “Yes We Can” and of “Hope and Change”; though there never was anybody asking what changes are we presumably hoping for? The change has mostly been quite destructive in the world’s stage and a complete abrogation of the traditional importance to the world, strategic positioning of the United States military forces, the American political model being represented as the preferred model for good governance with concern for the people over and above the concerns of the political class and as the guarantor of order, human rights, civility and against the most disastrous proclivities of mankind such as genocide, oppressions, and the many other presumed actions the United States could provide the world at large when she is enforcing those principles under which she herself presumably performs her domestic policies. Some might claim that the United States internal policies have also suffered since the start of the Twenty First Century which was preceding the withdrawal and suffering of the rest of the world from the United States reduction of both interactions and direct actions across the globe and especially in the MENA areas which have suffered the most from this abatement.

 

This is what has led to the situation where the free world had no real or active leadership. Canada’s Stephen Harper took up some of the challenge as did Britain’s David Cameron; but even combined, the two men could not equal even the most minimal actions usually taken by the United States. Additionally, the only nations who are capable of deploying troops across the globe are China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. The pullback of American forces has permitted some adventurism by these two powers which would never have been undertaken had there been a remaining presence in force of the United States. Russia adventurism has extended to as far as Syria and even negotiating got permission for a naval base in Northern Africa. China has been even more interesting as they have been adding to their territories and expending their claims to the waters of the South China Sea by building new islands stretching well into this vital commercial water causeway through which much trade by shipping takes place.

 

So, who will take up the mantle of leader of the free world? Of all the potential candidates, it is likely that one of the smallest of nations and one which many would claim they would never look to for such directions, still it is Israel which may end up with the mantle due to her location as the cork in the bottle of the Middle East which appears ready to once again explode on the world’s stage starting with Europe. The explosion of “refugees” into Europe over the past weeks is in reality an invasion and not an influx of oppressed refugees. Despite the great care and effort of the media to find groups with children and women to snap their pictures defining the refugees flight into Europe but there have been a few news sources which have shown the reality of large and even overly common numbers of men between the ages of fifteen to forty and extremely able of being a deployed army which is now injected throughout continental Europe and a large number had gathered across Germany. If Europe is going to be capable of managing the troubles to come, they will very likely look to Israel as their model on how to handle their newly found problems. There is one result from this which will serve Israel as well as Europe as Israel will be forgiven taking control of all of Israel as promised in the British Mandate but limited by the later Churchill White Papers where Transjordan was taken out of the lands originally promised and the promise to keep the remainder sacrosanct for the Jewish State for a promise of all the lands west of the Jordan River. This newly found freedom of action will permit Israel to finally take the steps which has been obvious since the Second Intifada from 2000 through 2005 which claimed over a thousand Jewish and Israeli lives and many tens of thousands injured with all too many having life altering injuries with which they have been forced to live with as their injuries were too serious for modern medicine to repair and only to make things as best as the physicians were capable. The memories and witness of the pains still felt resulting from the last Intifada has cast a pall over Israel where people are determined to take any and all necessary steps to assure that no such situation comes into the violence which has been escalating since late last winter and finally made the world news with the stabbings. These attacks have become so permeating Israel with a half dozen to dozen daily and have become the new normal which means they will soon become considered everyday events in Israel and therefore no longer of any importance for the media to grant coverage. Those who choose to mention these attacks will come under criticism for saying the same thing day after day and as the media is no longer covering these events including the daily rioting on the Temple Mount there are no new pictures and as a Jew in Israel I would face certain injury or death were I to attempt to take my own pictures and videos and as such I am not that adventurous. Still, once Europe realizes that they are in the same boat as Israel and that boat is taking on water at an alarming pace, then Israel will be freed of her shackles and freed to do what should have been done ten to twenty years ago. This will put an end to the miscreants, actually murderous swine, who have indoctrinated their children so to send them on suicide missions as their deaths are to their propaganda media’s advantage and must be born witness by the Western Word for being what it truly is, child sacrifices. Their acts are no different than the idolaters from who Joshua led the initial conquest of Israel by the Jews who had come out of Egypt almost thirty-five-hundred years ago leading to the initial founding of the Jewish State which was recently reestablished restoring what is the only indigenous peoples to return from exile twice with one approaching two-thousand years and to retain their language, code of laws (Torah) and remained a peoples avoiding intermarriage for much of their centuries of life amongst other peoples as they resided in their Diaspora. This is the miraculous nation which may soon become a “Light Unto the Nations” as written in her historic Torah and kept alive in her oral laws as well, to quote Fiddler on the Roof, her “Traditions!”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

August 17, 2015

The Best Manner to Destroy the Iran Deal

 

The first and most important item which our friends in the United States, and for those in the Congress who wish to oppose the Iran deal in the most effective manner still available, is they all need to understand that the United Nations Security Council Resolution has forced the hand of the United States as it passed and was enacted by the United Nations which is binding on the United States as well as the rest of the P5+1 nations and also on the European Union and all the member nations of the United Nations. Thanks to President Obama immediate actions the Congress has been basically relegated impotent when it comes to preventing the adoption of the Iran nuclear deal. Additionally, pursuing rejection of the deal against the Presidential veto, which President Barack Hussein Obama had guaranteed, is an act of pure futility and will simply open those supporting such a move to ridicule when they fail to override the Presidential veto. Even should they override the veto, the President still has the United Nations Security Council vote to implement the end to sanctions and thus again much of the media pointing out the futile waste of time and taxpayer monies by the Republicans and those select Democrats who will meet opposition backed by the party as they face what we here at BTC refer to as the Senator Joe Lieberman treatment. President Obama has taken every possible step to minimize, or even eliminate, the avenues available to the Congress or even the American people from denying the stipulation in the Iranian Nuclear Deal to terminate the sanctions placed on Iran by the United States. So, if anything the Congress can do to prevent the elimination of the existing sanctions, what should they be doing concerning the Iran Nuclear Deal and all its ramifications.

 

The one thing that might be to the advantage of the Congress might be instead of passing legislation killing the Iran Nuclear Deal as currently in progress, would be to allow the President to have his celebration but to not feed his triumph by passing legislation just to have President Obama veto it in an in your face mode and very publically using the media to emphasize his victory over those luddites and their feeble attempts to prevent moving forward as the Iranian Nuclear Deal allows. Simply do absolutely nothing. That is correct, nothing. Simply allow the discussion over the Iran Nuclear Deal to die a natural death and give the President a temporary victory and prepare to do something constructive and effective. Wait about six weeks until all the fervor dies down and even the longest attention spans have moved to another subject, perhaps Hilary’s e-mails, or Bernie Sanders poll numbers or whatever any of the almost dozen and a half Republican candidates have done to advance or serve a coup de grace on their campaign and may as well pack it up and better luck next time. That may not even take the full six weeks, but wait six weeks just so most everyone will believe that any new sanctions, even if they resemble the previous sanctions, as if anybody would be so knowledgeable to tell, are something being addressed over some great new information about the Iranians breaking their agreement and thus the move to new sanctions. I am sure if one were to discreetly inquire of the Israelis to provide any new information which could be used to grab the attention of the average American, something not overly technical but still a few sprinkles of scientific terms and a few ominous descriptions should be sufficient to give any hearing exactly the force and urgency required for a quick debate and vote. Applying new sanctions, not reapplying the old sanctions that the President so opposed, but new sanctions brought against new violations by Iran in their nuclear program requiring these new sanctions should be an easier sell and would also circumvent the United Nations Security Council Resolution as that was on the old sanctions and not others going forward. Then lobby and get sufficient Democrats’ votes to add to all Republican Congressional members’ votes allowing those Democrats who are hesitant to vote their conscience once there are sufficient votes assuring the new sanctions pass with a veto proof majority.

 

There should also be efforts to try and get the assurance from members of Congress such that if the President were to oppose the legislation and insult the Congress or otherwise be demeaning in his treatment rather than simply vetoing the legislation quietly and returning it to Congress with his reason for using his veto, then gain their assist in overriding any veto used as a weapon to insult Congress. One could even attempt to gain additional assistance in passing the legislation should the President take overt initiatives to attempt and belittle Congress or threaten any Democrat or others who are supporting new sanctions. If there has to be a fight over sanctions on Iran, make the fight about actual sanctions which are actually able to be applied to the Iranian Nuclear Program. The sanctions could even be targeted should Iran be found to avoiding IAEA inspections or seen to be utilizing every delaying tactic to deny snap inspections or otherwise working to circumvent the terms and stipulations of the Nuclear Deal, something which very likely will be suspected within a few months after the finalization and acceptance of the terms. As the Iranians pose greater and greater resistance against speedy and immediate inspections and refusal to inspection of sites despite sufficient announced inspections schedule then passing new sanctions, should “snap back” sanctions prove impossibly, should be the answer which even President Obama should support, and if not eventually public pressures will either force the President’s hand or that of the necessary members of Congress to override any veto from the White House. Forget kicking a dead horse and instead run down new threats which are sure to come from the Iranian nuclear program in the ensuing months.

 

Further, the Iranian nuclear program is far from the only activity being pursued by the Iranians which could bring undo attention from Congress as they arm many various terrorist or rebellious groups throughout the Middle East. Then there are the constant threats to Israel and the United States, the attempted subversions against Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Lebanon, Kurdish areas, the GCC nations (Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf) and likely far more proliferate meddling once the initial inflowing of funds from the cancellation of the current sanctions and the increased income from new oil and pistachio sales. The reality may be that Iran and new Middle East turmoil may be the surprise influence on the United States elections as Iranian interference could easily begin to take violent and unpredictable turns. Iranian influence arming Hamas could result in Hamas and other supporting terror groups to be instructed to, instead of starting another rocket war with Israel, overthrow the Arab governing bodies in Judea and Samaria. Only then would they be loosed to start a terror war from both the east and the southwest against Israel. Another possibility is that Iran could place sufficient numbers of troops, predominantly from the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) in Syria and central and southern Iraq and after destroying the Islamic State then turn their forces on the Kurds or Jordan. Such an assault in any direction would depend on the United States elections and seeing if the new President will turn away from isolationist governance which would bring to an end any Islamic unfettered conquests. Only time will tell whether or not Islamic expansion will come to a definitive end once President Obama leaves office. Exactly what direction Iran will take in the next year plus until the new President is sworn into office is anyone’s guess. With a large influx of funds and their already having placed orders for the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems, one-hundred-fifty Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, two-hundred-fifty Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters as well as one-hundred IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers they have already bought themselves a modern Air Force. What other purchases Iran makes in the next few months may give a better lead as to what their immediate plans might be in the long run.

 

 

Pictured are the weapons systems ordered by Iran against the $150-Billion they are to receive as the sanctions are removed Chinese Chengdu J-10 sophisticated jet fighters with Israeli avionics, Russian highly-advanced Sukhoi-Su-30MK1 fighters, Russian IL78 MKI aircraft refueling tankers and Russian S-300 anti-aircraft-and-missile systems seemingly even if the plan is rejected by the United States, Iran or even France.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

 

May 30, 2013

Potential Results if Obama Orders Syria as a No-Fly Zone

According to inside the White House officials, President Obama’s White House has asked the Pentagon to draw up plans for a no-fly zone over Syria. The no-fly zone would be enforced by the United States as well as France and Great Britain and other NATO members as the next step in assisting the Syrian rebels against Syrian Dictator Bashir al-Assad. The rebels forces which have presumably been vetted and approved would also receive arms as a part of this new offensive. This was part of the reasoning why Senator John McCain just took an “unscheduled” and “private” trip into Syria to talk with the rebel leaders, the good rebels and not the bad rebels, and get a feeling for level of trust and their needs. There are a few questions which deserve a public debate before such drastic actions are undertaken and perhaps we could start the conversation here.

 

The first item would be to actually enumerate the potential consequences of such an act. We will hear from President Obama as well as Senator McCain and others in his echo chamber how we are allied and have the praise and agreement from the Saudis, Turkey’s leadership, and the members of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). We will not hear about the opposition and standing threats which exist and have come from Russia’s President Putin, Hezballah’s Leader Nasrallah and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Russian President Putin has made his position exquisitely clear stating that Russia fully backs Syrian President al-Assad in his measures taken to put down the revolution being carried out against him by terrorist entities and Russia will back him against any outside interference by any groups or nation. Hezballah’s Nasrallah has promised that his organization has global reach and has in place assets that can be utilized against anybody found to be interfering in the fighting in Syria or who try to influence things against Hezballah in Lebanon. The Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned that any country which chooses to assist the rebels in their illegal revolution against their ally al-Assad will have their hand and foot cut off on opposing sides, whatever that actually means. Any way you look at these threats, one can be assured that ramification of enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria could very quickly lead to an escalating situation that could very easily get out of control leading to a much greater conflagration than we are presently witnessing.

 

But what are the likely initial and secondary events which would most likely actually follow the placing of a no-fly zone over Syrian airspace and arming the rebels with light and some crew served weapons but not heavy weapons. Some of the response would depend on how the no-fly zone were implemented and enforced. If the rebels were supplied with MANPAD Systems and Stinger Missiles, they would then be capable of providing their own air defenses. This method would allow for a suitable threat to exist on any Syrian air attacks that Bashir al-Assad very well might be very restrictive on his use of his air strike capabilities. This method would allow for only a minimal response from Russia who would likely provide al-Assad with potentially ARMs (anti-radar missiles) with which to counter the new armaments given the rebels thus returning a semblance of balance to the fields of combat. But if President Obama and his allies decide to take the more direct and conventional means of enforcing a no-fly zone over Syrian, this would generate a completely different response all around. The direct method includes initially flying sorties over all Syrian airfields and bases taking out as many aircraft such as helicopters and fighters as can be struck on the ground and bombing the runways to render them unusable. This is followed up by keeping air resources at the ready twenty-four hours a day in order to scramble and take out any aircraft that take to the skies within Syria and attacking those which have threat capability against the rebel forces. This direct approach could lead to some very serious responses. The Russians could deploy the S-300 and S-300M air defense missile systems in Syria and even man them with Russian troops. These are top of the line and very capable systems which could pose a serious threat to any United States or NATO planes sent over Syria. Putin might even go so far as to dispatch Russian fighter jets with Russian pilots to engage the United States and allied aircraft. Russia already has at least one known missile destroyer sitting just off the coast of Syria in addition to the Russian naval base in Tartus, Syria. This is just two of a myriad of responses the Russians could potentially take as a response to a United States applied no-fly zone over Syria, what about Iran and Hezballah?

 

Iran is a completely different story and much more of an unknown enigma. Much of the Iranian weapons capability comes in the form of missiles and rockets. The majority are ground-to-ground types but they also possess capabilities in ground-to-air and both ground-to-ship and ship-to-ship. Their navy consists mostly of fast attack craft armed with ship-to-ship missiles, torpedoes, and automatic cannons or heavy machineguns. The initial threat the Iranians could apply in response would be the closure of the Straits of Hormuz using various anti-ship mines backed up with land-to-sea-missiles already in place along the coastal region, fast attack craft patrolling the waters, longer range missiles stationed inland, and anti-ship artillery placed along the coastal areas. Simultaneously, the Iranians could mount a mass fast attack craft assault on the United States fleet positions with the targeted intent of taking out any aircraft carriers in the area. Such an attack could be coordinated with missile and artillery support from bases throughout Iran as well as anti-ship batteries along the coasts and on the Iranian owned islands in the gulf. Where such an attack may prove suicidal for many of the attacking Iranian ships, the United States would very likely also take some damage with the possibility that such damages could be quite costly and dear. One American warship sunk would likely be more costly than all the Iranian losses in such a confrontation and there would also be the propaganda victory that Iran would claim and would likely be believed and hailed as a sign from Allah across the Muslim World. There is one other unknown about Iran and that is concerning their nuclear program. The Iranians could very well already have a deliverable nuclear weapon, be it an actual twenty kiloton bomb or a smaller yield EMP styled device. Such a weapon might even be deliverable by a missile and could already be in place on a ship off the coasts of the United States or in Venezuela just waiting for the command. This is a potential about which the United States has only rumors and intelligence from satellites and other countries as it is highly doubtful that the United States has any HUMIT placed within Iran.

 

The final piece of the puzzle is an even greater unknown that Iran, that is Hezballah. It is known that Hezballah has infiltrated and is in league with the Mexican drug cartels. What is unknown is how extensive the Hezballah has positioned assets within the United States. The one truth about Hezballah is that until the 9/11 attack by Osama bin Laden, Hezballah had murdered the most American citizens of any terrorist organization. It was Hezballah who blew up the Marine barracks in Lebanon on October 23, 1983. Where Hezballah is not likely to be a significant threat against American military might, they are extremely capable in dispensing terror in a well-planned and systematic manner which would maximize the effects causing the maximum panic. Their style is to use explosions often to kidnap victims and then either hold them for ransom or simply to kill them one by one over an extended period making sure to make each execution as grizzly and horrid as possible while gaining it word-wide publication using both the old media and the internet. Most of the effect of a Hezballah assault would be mental stress, fear, and intimidation. Hezballah does have the capability to use explosive devices of massive effect and has shown the ability to utilize their assets to maximize their impact. A Hezballah assault would be a steady number of attacks likely spread over a prolonged period with varied lengths of time between attacks and seemingly unpredictable locations. Their initial series of attacks would be dispersed and occur in a swarm and they would repeat the use of swarms of attacks in a short period in order to cause trepidation that there would be a series of bombings or attacks to follow any single attack thus maximizing the public’s fears.

 

The main reason not to enter into the Syrian civil war has little to do with the problems that retaliation by Syria, Russia, Hezballah, or Iran might unleash. The reality is there are no good guys on any side in this war. There are no allies of the United States or Europe. We would be backing the least offensive of the sides but they would still be offensive. The other problem would be Bashir al-Assad’s response to the United States imposing a no-fly zone over Syria. Bashir al-Assad would resort to using his missiles of which he has a rather large supply. He would use these missiles against any United States assets in Iraq that were within his range as well as the fleet in the Mediterranean Sea and then also on Jordan, Turkey and of course Israel. Along with al-Assad striking Israel, we could also count on Hezballah unleashing thousands upon tens of thousands of missiles on Israel. The odds are Israel would strike back at Lebanon and leave Syria to Turkey, the United States and NATO. Israel has proven they have no dog in the Syrian civil war. But in Lebanon Israel has interests which simply put is to remove Hezballah from controlling the Lebanese government. There may even be the possibility that Iran may use some of the Iraqi assets and mount an attack on Saudi Arabia while all this was taking up everybody’s attentions. The basic truth is that there is no happy side to entering into the Syrian imbroglio, only heartache and great amounts of loss and pain. This is one fight where the best manner to employ is not to fight. Plan all President Obama wishes but the Congress should be demanding that the United States take a pass on Syria but instead they are egging the President on to engage in this evil and deceptive involvement. Mr. President, Please, just say no.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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