Beyond the Cusp

November 24, 2017

Who Starts the Next War?

 

Oh, the possibilities we have. Will it be Trump or Kim Jong-un, Saudi Royal Prince Mohammed bin Salman or the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, the new Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar or Hezballah’s Leader Hassan Nasrallah or will it come out of the blue from an unexpected source responding to a terror attack or assassination as happened to start World War I? Will it perhaps be China moving on Taiwan or Russia finishing off the Ukraine or Georgia? It could simply be a severe escalation of Turkey’s private war against the Kurds in Syria and Iran spreading into a Kurdish rebellion within Turkey with the entirety of the Kurdish People finally demanding their own homeland refusing to be picked apart individually by Iran, Syria, Turkey, Iraq and any terror forces sent by the same or even Saudi Arabia or the Muslim Brotherhood. It might be the Basques or Catalan People of Catalonia declaring themselves independent from Spain with Spain having the obvious reaction and moving to end such as that might cause others to have similar thoughts causing the Balkanization of Spain. There are such movements within virtually every nation of Europe and likely the world. There are numerous other peoples in Northern Africa which currently are ruled over by foreign peoples who came along with the Islamic conquests of the Caliphate. One such are the Berbers, one of the tribes which converted to Islam only to be subsumed by Arab culture and rulers. The possibilities are endless but the real contenders come down to the first few listed as those are the least stable places with the most to gain or lose as the world moves forward.

 

The possibility that President Trump will start a war are, contrary to the wild accusations of some detractors, somewhere around nil. First, he would need a declaration from Congress for any actual war or even military actions. The Congress appears barely capable of passing the budget for a single year. Trump also has no taste for any conflict despite all of his bluster and even Kim Jong-un is aware that Trump was all talk and no teeth. This was part of why Kim Jong-un and Trump both have all but ended their contest of words, both realized the other was not about to start a war at this time, so tempting one was simply a waste of effort. So, North Korea and United States are not about to go to war, which should be a relief. If such a conflict were to come to fruition, we would predict that the North Koreans would attempt to make the initial strike forcing President Trump and the Congress to respond in kind. Thus, should a war ever come between the United States and North Korea, it would be at the insistence of North Korea.

 

The next pairing was between Saudi Royal Prince Mohammed bin Salman or the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei. Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the next directly in line to the crown of Saudi Arabia and has been assuming more and more power taking over responsibilities from his father, the aging and ailing King Salman. The Prince was the mastermind behind the Sunni forces which were routed in Syria and has mismanaged the Yemen-Saudi conflict allowing Iranian missiles and Hezballah and IRGC fighters to enter Yemen. Just last week an Iranian provided missile was launched from Yemen towards Riyadh. This was declared to have been an act of war by Iran against Saudi Arabia and there were rumors of an imminent war on the horizon. Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also moved to secure his own position by arresting for criminal corruption close to a dozen of his closest relatives, cousins, leader of the National Guard, governor of Riyadh, and the internationally renowned Prince Alwaleed bin Talal.

 

Further, Prince Salman has promised, or threatened, to westernize, or modernize, Saudi Arabia in an attempt to improve the economy such that it is not entirely dependent upon their oil wealth. The religious class, the clerics and heads of the Wahabbists, are very much opposed to such a plan seeing it as a direct threat to their power and influences on Saudi politics and direction. They have lived off the Royal Family paying them, rewarding them richly from the oil wealth such that they would back the Royal Family permitting them to remain in power. This arrangement left out one very important group, the people of Saudi Arabia who were sentenced to a life of moderations and poverty in far too many instances with lacking education and little chance for improvement.

 

Saudi Arabia and Iran War

Saudi Arabia and Iran War

 

All but needless to say, but a war is actually the last thing Saudi Arabia needs, now or at any time. Should such a war with Iran become inevitable, the winner, if there actually would be a winner, would not gain much and the loser would lose everything. It is for this reason such a war would be devastating to the Middle East and would also have a great possibility to spread and involve other countries. With the Iranians, one could expect Yemen, Iraq, Qatar, what is left of Syria, Lebanon and Turkey, while with Saudi Arabia, one would expect the Gulf States of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council which includes Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, and Oman), Jordan and eventually Egypt. There are some wildcards in the equation which include Pakistan, India, Israel and the United States. Pakistan actually could be thought to assist either side as they trade with Iran but they also owe Saudi Arabia for providing the necessary cash required to finance their drive for nuclear weapons. India does have a fair number of trade deals with Iran and they do have a common neighbor in Pakistan plus share the waterway, the Arabian Sea. Israel and the United States are the real game-changers which could completely alter the outcome of the conflict but are also the least likely to enter such a conflict, especially should the Saudi Arabians be the initiator of the conflict. Should Iran start such a conflict, then the probability that Israel or the United States would be greater, especially if the Saudis appeared to be on the losing end.

 

Estimating who would win such a war would need to weigh far too many variables. The basic equation places the newer and superior equipment and technology having bought $350 billion arms deal this year alone. But the Iranians have the population numbers and their military has been tested in Syria and thus experienced, especially the IRGC and Hezballah, the core fighters Iran would use for the tip of their spear. The Saudi Arabian military are known to march very nicely and have little to no actual experience in actual combat. The best equipment cannot make up for lack of experience and experience only mitigates lesser weaponry partially, so the question is which would be the greater equalizer and how long would this difference provide superior fighting ability. In the end, the real question comes down to whether Russia would assist Iran and do so at sufficient a level before the United States decided they needed to assist the Saudi Arabian side of the conflict. The final wildcards bring a nuclear answer to this conflict should nobody use such earlier as Iran is suspected of having nuclear weapons and Saudi Arabia is rumored to have an agreement with Pakistan to provide as many as a dozen such weapons on demand. These wildcards are North Korea and their eight-hundred-pound gorilla which often accompanies them in endeavors, China. One could trace how a conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran could draw in other nations until it would become the next World War, World War III. Such a war, according to Albert Einstein, would guarantee that the following World War, World War IV, would be fought with sticks and stones. We are thinking of going and picking up some stones tomorrow.

 

The real question we should be answering is, who might be planning to spread their influence and do so successfully enough that they become a threat to the peace of the entire planet? North Korea has talked of conquest but it has mostly been about the Korean peninsula and occasionally of the United States, and that second is simply bluster for domestic consumption. China appears readying to become the Pacific hegemon sharing that title with the United States and have raised expectations that they will be the first to build a Moon base. Japan has also talked of plans to place a base on the Moon in the near future. The United States and Russia have talked of Moon bases as well. Hopefully, the next war that threatens humanity will not be a Moon War where Moon bases start shooting at each other. The Moon race will hopefully be used to initiate cooperation instead of conflict. So, fortunately, the Moon is unlikely to spark the next World War. There have been accusations that Israel desires to conquer much of the lands surrounding them forcefully displacing the Muslim populations. That is pure propaganda which is provably false, as Israel has given up claims to land such as the Sinai Peninsula and Gaza in efforts to reach peace with varying amounts of success. Then there is Iran which has spread their control since the Iranian Revolution in 1979 to Syria, Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen. Iran has made claims that they intend to destroy Israel and the United States, establish a Shiite Crescent across the heart of the Middle East (see map below). The truth is Iran is in the stage of cementing their Shiite Crescent and may be looking further starting with Yemen.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

The one item which Iran has claimed to desire is represented on the map above by the big green star, that covers Mecca and Medina, which along with the oil fields in the northeast of Saudi Arabia make up the targets upon which Iran has set their eyes. Iran has also made constant references to the Persian Empire and reestablishing exactly such hegemony over the Middle East and reaching all the way into Greece and Egypt which was once the extent of the Persian Empire. Both the founder, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Mūsavi Khomeini, and his successor, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei, have both made references to spreading Shia Islam over the entire planet fulfilling the promises given by Allah in the Quran for Islam to rule the planet. There have been Sunni Muslims who also claimed they would fulfill the same promises such as al-Qaeda, Islamic State and Hamas. Al-Qaeda and Islamic State do not appear to have had much success in this effort and Hamas appears to be currently stymied by Israel and if they were to spread any form of Islam, it would probably be Shia since, just like Hezballah, Hamas is now in the service of Iran. For all intents and purposes, the only groups or nations with any current abilities which have also expressed the desire for word conquest all appear to be serving or are Iran. Additionally, Iran has spoken of their intention to erase the nation of Israel from the map commenting that Israel would be a one-bomb nation once they have sufficient nuclear weapons. They have also shared research with North Korea and shared tactics for a southern approach for using an orbital nuclear weapon to deliver and EMP to the United States destroying much of the electrical infrastructure. The real question that the world needs to address is who is going to stop Iran, when do they plan on starting and what it will take for people to take the concept of Iranian world conquest seriously. Ask almost anyone other than a minority of military leadership about Iran declaration of intent for world conquest; they will laugh at you as if you are insane if not actually trying to get you some medical assistance for your obvious problems. We all may as well face the fact that nobody believes in world conquest by any nation any more now, than anyone had in 1933 when Germany talked of world conquest. The world did finally respond to Germany but had they worked to prevent Germany from building up their military the world would have been saved the horrors of World War II. Iran has spread its influence across the Middle East, has all but surrounded Saudi Arabia, had closed in on Israel on three borders and has control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el Mandeb Strait giving them control over oil shipments to the world and the southern exit from the Red Sea blocking any use of the Suez Canal. How far does Iran need to go to prove they intend to try to conquer the world for Allah and Shiite Islam? This is a question which may get more important as time passes, or we may get fortunate and their efforts fail from reaching any critical point where preventing them becomes an absolute necessity, which would mean they have reached military capabilities making world conquest a possibility.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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May 15, 2017

Hezballah Threats Growing in Intensity

 

When threats of Hezballah invading Israel start being the next great idea used by Hassan Nasrallah to rally the troops and spark excitement in the Lebanese Shiite public replacing his usual anti-Christian rhetoric and claims of preparedness to repel and Israeli attack which may be imminent as the Jews nefarious ways can never be predicted, one can only expect the worst. That such news would be reported by, of all places, Yahoo News then either things are a whole lot worse than one thinks or Yahoo was going for broke trying to sell the story. The problem is Nasrallah has been speaking big much more than usual of late and that never bodes well. Part of the reason for his big chest pounding rhetoric could largely be due to things not going as well as hoped for on the Syrian front and Hezballah has been losing more men than they had initially expected when answering the call from Iran to assist Bashir al-Assad hold to power in Syria. Hezballah has lost a number of commanders including Mustafa Badriddine whose death was commemorated this past week in Lebanon. This too could be a further reason for the boastful threats by Nasrallah as he needs to make it sound as if the Syrian debacle has not swerved the terror outfit from fighting their supposed main enemies, Israel. Whenever the troops and/or the people need a little pick-me-up, well, there’s nothing like some anti-Israel threats topped with a little anti-Semitic slurs claiming that the Jews could never match his Hezbollah fighters.

 

Hassan Nasrallah

Hassan Nasrallah

 

In Nasrallah’s televised speech he declared, “Israel has been threatening for 10 years to open a front against Hezbollah, but it hasn’t done anything. Israel is afraid of any confrontation.” This is standard grist for the mill and can be found in virtually every Nasrallah speech in some form or another. The interesting declaration, which has been added in the last couple of years, has been the insistence that the next war, whether started by Israel or by Hezballah, will be fought in the Galilee, otherwise called occupied Palestine. They can only use the word Israel in conjunction with words such as annihilation, decimation, elimination or other wonderful threat or another, otherwise it is always occupied Palestine, occupied territory, occupied something or another. Nasrallah’s speeches almost always speak of the massive armaments and fearless Hezballah fighters who are going to fight scared Israelis, again win another war against the accursed Jews or some other fantastical fantasy, if you will permit the double-speak. Somehow redundancies actually seemed apropos when speaking of Nasrallah and his threats which come periodically from the man who seldom leaves his presumed hidden bunker appearing solely by teleconference on a bigger than life television screen even for outside events.

 

We have often wondered what he is making up for with these super-sized television screens. It couldn’t be some inadequacy such as fear of assassination, which keeps him seriously safe from anyone who might desire to replace him thinking that his actions have betrayed their main purpose and is now sacrificing their people in the service of Iranian and Syrian overlords. There are likely some who feel that Nasrallah has failed in many ways including not taking care of job number one, Israel, and instead is wasting lives and resources fighting in the Syria civil war. Somebody does not appreciate that the Iranians pay the bills and provide the weaponry, especially the advanced rockets and missiles including those, which can reach from Lebanon into Egypt and Saudi Arabia, not to mention all of Israel. That is the problem as well, as the Iranians have provided, over the past five years, somewhere between one-hundred-thousand and two-hundred-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and ranges including Scuds and Chinese knockoffs made in Iran, missiles including the C-701 and C-802 and Yakhont subsonic Chinese anti-ship missiles, as well as Zelzal-1 and 2, Fateh-110, Fajr-3 and 5 Missiles and a myriad of smaller rockets which can rain down on many towns and cities in northern Israel. Making matters slightly more problematic is the fact that Hezballah is aligned, more like subsumed, by the Lebanese Army which provides them with tanks, the T-55, T-62, and T-72 Russian Main Battle Tanks as well as M-1 Abrams United States Main Battle Tank. This also includes Armored Personnel Carriers. Their armaments also include various MANPADS (anti-aircraft man-carried anti-aircraft rockets) SA-7, SA-14, SA-16, SA-18, FIM-92 Stinger, QW-1 Vanguard, Misagh-1 and Misagh-2 which are of Russian, American and Iranian manufacture. They also possess both stationary and self-propelled anti-aircraft weapons. Further Hezballah received SA-8, SA-17, SA-22 and the Sayyad-2 surface to air missile systems. Further weapons include a myriad of anti-tank missiles from wire-guided to fire and forget and everything in between. Hezballah has become the beneficiary of main battle tanks, which they could never have gained on their own but were capable of purchasing them through the Lebanese Military, which claimed they had no connection with Hezballah when making the arrangements with the United States for the Abrams Main Battle Tanks, which was a complete and utter misrepresentation of the truth. We suspect that the Obama Administration was fully aware of the lie but went through with the deal in order to provide Hezballah with this formidable weapon system. Also attained by the Lebanese Army were seventy M-198 Howitzer artillery units, along with twenty-six-million rounds of ammunition. A summary reported by Breitbart tells that, “Lebanon is now the 5th largest recipient in the world of U.S. military foreign assistance. Over $100 million last year, and over $1 billion in the last 8 years.” The list of weaponry provided all but directly to Hezballah by the United States is astounding and frightening making one wonder who was the person behind making such weapons available to the second arm of Hezballah, the Lebanese Military which were known to be one and the same as long as a decade ago when it was first suspected by the administration of George W. Bush though they refused to go public and stay from admitting any direct link.

 

We can only hope that with a new administration in the White House that shipments of such weaponry to the Lebanese Military, and thus to Hezballah, have come to a close. Still, the damage has been done and cannot be undone. These weapons make the threats by Nasrallah all the more dangerous and the chance of war far more likely, not less. Hezballah has at most a limited number of pilots making them completely dependent upon the Lebanese pilots. The only other break is that the Lebanese Air Force is completely made of helicopters that can be dangerous to fixed wing aircraft no matter the sophistication. The Israeli Defense Forces also have helicopters that include the Apache, very likely one of the most advanced and capable attack helicopters. Still, any war between Hezballah and Israel would include the Lebanese military making it an all-out war between the two nations. Israel has realized this and made it evidently clear through contacts that any attacks by Hezballah would be taken by Israel as a declaration of war by Lebanon and constitute a state of war between the two nations. Israel desires to keep the peace with her neighbors but the threats and boasting by Nasrallah will eventually lead to the rank and file terrorist fighters that make up Hezballah’s fighting force demanding to be permitted their glorious and victorious war with Israel. Nasrallah realized that any war with Israel would devastate all of Lebanon and Hezballah but he does not care. Nasrallah will continue to periodically make his threats despite knowing that some day his big mouth will trigger that hated of results, an infernal war which destroys both nations with one probably incapable of recovering and the other taking a long time but rebuilding and, believe it or not, once rebuilt offering to assist the other as that is the Israeli way, help people, even former enemies. Israel sent tons of relief aid including food, medicines, diesel fuel, electricity, water and other provisions into Gaza during the Gaza War with Hamas even to include a field hospital at one of the crossings because the average Gazan was not the problem and should suffer as little as possible. The same will be true for Lebanon as much as conditions allow, but the conditions are likely to be horrific as Hezballah, like Hamas, use the civilians to protect their military assets. The real problem is not his threats but that one-day he will use such a threat to launch such an attack leading to total carnage, mostly in Lebanon, once their initial assault has been turned back as the rockets and missiles are the real threat, not so much any ground fighting. That day will provide an honest evaluation of the limits to Israeli missile defenses where Iron Dome, David’s Sling and both Arrow 1 and 2 will need to work together and seamlessly if Israel will be successfully defended.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

February 22, 2017

Nasrallah and Allies Throwing Threats at Israel

 

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel to “Count to one million!” this past Monday before starting any attacks or violence against Lebanon. To those who know Israel they realize this threat has nothing to do with any threats which might emanate from Israel, they have everything to do with Nasrallah reinforcing his own standing as Hezballah has some difficulties as their losses in the Syria conflict continue to mount. Hezballah requires their front with Israel to give their movement legitimacy and without support in Lebanon they would not have this front. Nasrallah’s problem is the fighting by Hezballah in support of Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad in his war to try and reestablish his country with him still in control. Hezballah only has an obligation to fight for al-Assad because Iran insists they assist the Iranian efforts to support al-Assad, an ally, or should we say the more honest assessment of puppet, and thus retain Syria as the anchor on the Mediterranean of the Shiite Crescent across the Middle East. This Shiite Crescent begins with Iran bordering the Indian Ocean and Persian (Arabian) Gulf across Iraq and on through Syria and Lebanon to the Mediterranean Sea. Should Iran lose their claim to Syria personified by Bashir al-Assad who is more Shiite than Sunni as an Alawite Muslim, they lose their western Shiite Crescent anchor. The civil war in Syria has drawn more assets from Iran who has sent mostly Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units and as the fighting had continued they demanded that Hezballah assist the efforts and this demand has only increased as the fighting became more and more desperate. Initially Hezballah had great successes but soon they began to have sufficient losses that they were no longer able of hiding the deaths and severe injuries to their fighters. As Hezballah is mostly an all-volunteer force, leaving Hezballah has proven bad for some individuals’ health.

 

Hassan Nasrallah Gesturing during remote feed video onto large screen during Hezballah semi-annual pretense of readiness to defeat any Israeli assault as he remain in hiding presumably beyond the reach of Israeli drones and commandos. This enhances his appearance of constantly under threat by Israeli forces seeking to assassinate him. The likely truth is that Israel had no reason, desire or even bothered to draw up plans to do so. As far as whether Israel could find Hassan Nasrallah’s various secreted locations, probably already have them pinpointed on some map just in case it becomes advantageous to remove Nasrallah from his position as the figurehead of Hezballah.

Hassan Nasrallah Gesturing during remote feed video onto large screen during Hezballah semi-annual pretense of readiness to defeat any Israeli assault as he remain in hiding presumably beyond the reach of Israeli drones and commandos. This enhances his appearance of constantly under threat by Israeli forces seeking to assassinate him. The likely truth is that Israel had no reason, desire or even bothered to draw up plans to do so. As far as whether Israel could find Hassan Nasrallah’s various secreted locations, probably already have them pinpointed on some map just in case it becomes advantageous to remove Nasrallah from his position as the figurehead of Hezballah.

 

Still, and especially with the losses in Syria, Hezballah needs volunteers to fill their ranks of fighters. They control much of the government forces throughout Lebanon and is allied closely with President Michel Aoun and through these connections they control the education system in much of the areas and through this they indoctrinate the youth thus providing for future volunteers. One of the main attractive themes which is used in the schools and in their seeking for new recruits is the idea of fighting the Jews, Israel in particular. This has been a central theme even in Iran where their two major indoctrination inducing themes are “Death to America” teamed with “Death to Israel” both of which are often chanted in demonstrations after Friday prayers. This is the Iranian version of George Orwell’s 1984 “Two Minutes of Hate.” The similarity between the Iranian use of hate and Nasrallah using hate for Israel and the Jews are asimple means of holding power through defining and demonization of the other. This has been one of the means of unifying populations throughout Islamic history beginning with Muhammad during his later period in Medina after his being cast out of Mecca as his preaching that his revelations were the only truth, something the pluralistic society of Mecca refused to accede to, eventually rubbed the leaders of the city and the populace to such an extent they rejected both his preaching and soon the man himself, Muhammad, was cast out of the city. Once he established his power base in Medina he turned on those who had rejected him, first the Jewish tribes in the vicinity of Medina and then on Mecca bringing it down and subjugating those who had formerly rejected him. This was why he called his religion Islam which best translates as submission. This is still the method used by Islam that all must bow to their wishes and as Muhammad chose the Jews for a special place as the most accursed by Islam, this theme is repeated today. This is part of why Israel is so hated and why they so often depict the United States as controlled by Jews or as the puppet of Israel and thus singling the United States for equal hate as is given Israel. Some may ask why then is Britain also given such hate even more so than France, which was just as much a colonial power after the end of the Ottoman Empire in World War I, and the reason is simple, the Balfour Declaration brining Israel into existence, as they were under Jewish control. Everything traces back to the Jews no matter how absurd such a premise may be. Below we have Orwell’s “Two Minutes of Hate” and a rally against Israel, Britain and America from Tehran and the similarities are easily recognized.

 


Two Minutes of Hate

 


Endless Mindless Hate

 

There has also been a renewed belligerence from Gaza using a new tactic of firing their rockets from both within Gaza and from the Sinai Peninsula. Other than opening up a new front by using Egyptian territory there may be more involved. These rockets have been largely a single volley and then a return to what can be described as a normal level of fear and anxiety. The truth is, as we noted in our article Hamas Appointments Signal Coming Conflict, the recent retirement by Ismail Haniyeh and his replacement by Yahya Sinwar signals an expected increase in belligerence and the definite possibility of another Gaza war as Hamas will likely start a new rocket offensive this spring and into the summer. More rockets were fired into Israel today and all that remains is to see who and how many take credit for the attacks. Currently there is a war ongoing in Gaza in a rather subdued struggle for control of the area, the attacks on Israel as well as potentially Egypt between Hamas and Islamic State. Both groups would desire to eradicate Israel and both find Egyptian President Sisi to be a threat to their particular version of Islam, as he is calling for a reformation within Islam placing the emphasis on the Meccan coexistence verses instead of the Medina conquer the world and subjugation verses. Both Islamic State and Hamas see conquest as the true path of Islam holding no question in the supremacy which must be brought about by any and all means necessary including by the sword. Their argument with Sisi still would take a back seat to their hatreds for Israel and the Jews. In the case of Hamas one should not believe their aim is simply to destroy Israel and scatter the Jews to the far corners of the Earth as their Charter calls for the annihilation of all Jews wherever they may be found. Quoting the Hamas Charter, it states in Article 7, “The Day of Judgment will not come until Muslims fight the Jews, when the Jew will hide behind stones and trees. The stones and trees will say, ‘O Muslim, O servant of God, there is a Jew behind me, come and kill him.’” Further, it states in Article 32, “Zionism scheming has no end, and after Palestine, they will covet expansion from the Nile to the Euphrates River. When they have finished digesting the area on which they have laid their hand, they will look forward to more expansion. Their scheme has been laid out in the ‘Protocols of the Elders of Zion.’” These are actual beliefs which they intend to act upon yet nobody appears capable of understanding their deep-seated anti-Semitism and the extents to which they intend to carry the extermination of the Jewish People. What the world need understand is that the Islamic hatred for the Jews goes all the way back to the beginning starting with Muhammad and was not a product of their influence from the Nazis but rather it was an Islamic influence of Jew hatred which spurred the Nazis even further and was responsible in part for the “Final Solution” which was in part formulated through the input of the Mufti of Jerusalem in discussions he partook in at the Wannsee Conference. Hamas is simply the continuation of Muhammad’s preoccupation with the extermination of the Jewish People.

 

Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar

Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar

 

What poses the real threat is the possibility of facing a two front assault from the south using both Gaza and the Sinai Peninsula by Hamas as well as facing Hezballah in the north potentially attacking from both Lebanon and onto the Golan Heights from within al-Assad held areas around Damascus in Syria. Where such would not prove an impossible task for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), it would limit that care which could be granted should the IDF only need fight on just one front. There would be a necessary broadening of any theater of operation with less ability to use discretion when targeting essential structures being used as rocket launching facilities or command and control. This would be particularly true on the front against Hezballah as they have been provided with sufficient ability to destroy much of Israel with their estimated one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles. With such an arsenal they could probably overwhelm the Iron Dome systems and in order to preserve the nation the IDF would be required to rely on intensive air strikes and use of Israeli missiles in a series of precision munitions. The usual surgical precision and calling off air strikes simply because there would be a potential for civilian casualties would need to be given less urgency as many of these rockets and missiles and their launchers have been placed in what Hezballah refer to as their hardened positions which they claim Israel is unable to strike. What they are relying upon is that no Israeli government would ever permit the unrestricted use of missiles and air strikes regardless of civilian casualties. The difference in any coming conflict with Hezballah is that it would come down to Lebanese casualties or Israeli casualties and that would not be a difficult, though it would be an unpleasant, thought for any Israeli Prime Minister no matter where on the political scale they may sit. Any Israeli Prime Minister who would hold Lebanese or Gazan lives as more important and more precious than Israeli lives and call off strikes which would save Israeli civilians simply because Lebanese or Gazans might be hurt should step down immediately. There is a point where being humane when fighting a war has to give way to the practicality of fighting a war. Any war with Hezballah who have been provided with more missiles and rockets than many European military powers could put into use at any given time by Iran with the intent of overwhelming Israel and destroying as much of the country and murdering as many of the people as possible, that requires taking off the gloves and fighting any confrontation as what it is, an all-out no-holds-barred war. Such is not exactly something to be proud over, but reality has consequences and the only thing which Israel can promise is that she will not fire the first shot.

 

That leads us to the final reason Nasrallah made the comments he did. His other purpose is to establish through quotations the idea that any confrontation must have been started by Israel. In this with repeated statements of how Hezballah will go to any length in protecting Lebanon from Israeli aggressions, Hezballah will not shy when Israel attacks, Hezballah stands ready for the coming Israeli attacks and statement after such statement that when Hezballah strikes Israel in a cross border raid killing IDF soldiers on patrol and kidnapping soldiers if able they will claim the Israelis attacked and the world, even for a moment believes and reports such, then the entire following conflict will be blamed on Israel. Many of the world media will point to all the times Nasrallah warned of impending Israeli attack. The problem is Hezballah claims that the Galilee is occupied land and that Israel illegally holds these lands so when they attack it is in defense of lands they claim are occupied despite there being a recognized international border which places these lands within Israel. The entire length of the Lebanon Israel border is fenced and any attack required crossing through the fence at recognized crossing points. The entire border between Israel and Lebanon is supposed to be monitored by the United Nations peacekeeping force in Lebanon. These are the same peacekeepers who were supposed to prevent Hezballah from rearming and prevent their digging an entire new set of underground facilities. This is the same United Nations peacekeeping force which the Europeans walked out of supporting, India left after they were threatened and these peacekeepers now basically work for Hezballah. These United Nations forces were referred to as UNIFIL (United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon) and were put in place after the Second Lebanon War and almost lasted two years before basically turning the other way and allowing any breaching of the agreements they were supposed to enforce. They became so threatened that one seldom sees any United Nations vehicles south of the Litani River and those one can find are often being driven by and used to transport Hezballah units, rockets and provisions. UNIFIL became a joke and if there is any logic left in Israel, they will never again trust the United Nations, European union, European nations or most of the world to keep even a single promise if doing so places them in opposition to the forces of Islam as the world is more afraid of terrorists than they are of Israel because Israel will not be blowing things up in their capitals or anywhere they care about. Israel needs to realize they are on their own for the most part and any friends they may have after an election may disappear after the next election and their promises will leave with them. Such is the lesson of the written agreement given Ariel Sharon by George W. Bush which has since become a dead letter with at best may become resurrected briefly but will then be eclipsed somewhere down the road, guaranteed. The only promises Israel can count upon are in Torah.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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