Beyond the Cusp

February 20, 2015

Coming Iran Deal May Be Worse than Netanyahu Claims

Filed under: Absolutism,Administration,Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani,Allah,Amalekites,Anti-Israel,Anti-Semitism,Anti-Zionist,Appease Islamic Interests,Appeasement,Appointment,Arab Authority,Ayatollah,Ayatollah Khamenei,Battle of Khaybar,Benyamin Netanyahu,Binding Resolution,Blood Libel,Breakout Point,Britain,Cabinet,Calaphate,Camp David Peace Accords,Catherine Ashton,Catholic Church,China,Christians,Civilization,Condemning Israel,Conflict Avoidnce,Congress,Dhimmi,Disengagement,Ditherer in Chief,Ehud Barak,EMP Device,Europe,European Council,European Governments,European Pressure,European Union,Executive Order,Fadjr,Federica Mogherini,Forced Solution,Fordo,France,Gaza,Gaza Blockade,Golden Age of Islam,Government,Great Britain,Hassan Rowhani,Hate,History,Holy Cities,Holy Site,Holy Sites,Hudna,IAEA,International Politics,Intifada,Intifada,Iran,Iranian Military,Iranian Pressure,Iraq,ISIS,Islam,Islam,Islam,Islamic Pressure,Islamic State,Israel,Israeli Capital City,Israeli Interests,Jerusalem,Jewish Heritage,Jewish Leadership,Jewish State,Jihad,John Kerry,Jordan,Judaism,Lebanon,Leftist Pressures,Legal Blockade,Libya,Mahmoud Abbas,Mecca,Medina,Middle East,Military Option,Mohammad Javad Zarif,Mohammed,Muslim Expansionism,Muslim World,Muslims,North Korea,Nuclear Option,Nuclear Program,Nuclear Scientist,Nuclear Sites,Nuclear Weapons,Nuclear Weapons,Obama,Oslo Accords,P5+1,Palestinian,Palestinian Authority,Palestinian Pressures,Parchin,Persia,Persians,Plutonium Production,Politicized Findings,Politics,President Obama,Progressives,Qom,Quran,Religion,Response to Muslim Takeover,Russia,Sanctions,Secretary of State,Secular Interests,Sharia,Shiite,Shiite,Statehood,Sunni,Sunni,Supreme Leader,Syria,Taqiyya,Terror,The Twelfth Imam,Theocracy,Thermopylae,Turkey,Twelvers,United Nations,United Nations Presures,United States,Uranium Enrichment,Vatican City,Weapons of Mass Destruction,WMD,World Opinion,World Pressures,World Without Zionism or America,Yasser Arafat,Zionism,Zionist — qwertster @ 2:57 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

When Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu gives his speech to a joint session of Congress on Tuesday March 3, 2015, he may actually be relating a scenario of best possible deal Iran might accept. President Barack Obama might be correct when he claims that he is attempting to have Iran accept the only deal they are willing to make and that pushing for anything more stringent would simply result in Iran balking and walking out without any deal and doing whatever they please. We should all take up what very well could be the newest slogan in the ever shifting political scene that instead of President Obama’s first campaign theme of Hope and Change, we are now looking at Hope and Pray. There is another problem in the Iran dealings which everybody has apparently ignored, what if Iran walks away from the negotiations and simply states that no deal no matter how generous is as good as no deal and Iran doing whatever their hearts desire. This should be a negotiating scenario with which the Israelis should be very used to as it is the exact negotiating scenario Israel had faced with Mahmoud Abbas and Yasser Arafat before him when attempting to negotiate an end to the Arab Israeli dispute. This is where their negotiations are a diversion and have nothing to do with the terms being so laboriously and tediously worked through down to the last detail, exactly as Secretary of State John Kerry described are currently being hashed out at the negotiations between the P5+1 (United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany) and the Iranians. According to Secretary of State Kerry the major framework of an agreement has been laid out and that the negotiations are proceeding on a series of minutia such as inspections schedules, types of centrifuges permitted, how many of the centrifuges would be permitted to be swapped out and replaced with superior and newer centrifuges as time and technology progress, size of the permissible Iranian stockpile of LEU (lowly enriched uranium) and a plethora of other very specific items. This tactic sounds exactly like the Arab negotiations such as the Camp David Summit negotiations which were held under the generous sponsorship of United States President William Jefferson Clinton and proceeded to where all the particulars and specifics of the deal had been negotiated and spelled out. Perhaps a recounting of these events will help.

 

They were meeting in Paris to formally complete the deal and hold the signing ceremony when the Israeli team headed by Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak surprised Arab leader Yasser Arafat by simply accepting his presumed final objection in order to arrive at a signed agreement bringing an end to the Arab-Israeli conflict by establishing an Arab state consisting of the West Bank and Gaza with land exchanges on the final five percent of lands Israel was to retain from the West Bank made up of lands from within the Green Line, the sharing of Jerusalem, even a partial right of return, the final demand Arafat believed would be a poison pill the Israelis could not accept, but they did, and every other seeming dispute settled. Yasser Arafat found himself at a place he had thought he had shrewdly been able to avoid ever since the initial agreement in 1993 with the Oslo Accords and their stipulation for working towards a peace settlement. There everybody was sitting at the table, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak with the Israeli negotiators, Yasser Arafat and the Arab negotiators, President William Jefferson Clinton and Secretary of State Albright and the American facilitators on a beautiful Paris afternoon and a completed deal ready for the signatures making the deal final when Yasser Arafat refused to sign claiming the entire deal null and void and totally unacceptable to him, he then rose and stalked out of the negotiations to his car which was awaiting him outside. Immediately behind Arafat was a running Madeline Albright sounding as desperate as she did comical her short body attempting to catch Arafat while teetering on heeled shoes giving up more and more ground as she flung herself wildly down the hallway. That was the end of the Camp David Accords despite Taba Summit and every other final last ditch attempt by the Clinton Administration to forge a deal which would bring Arafat back to the table. He outright refused and never fully explained that his problem was that he would accept nothing less than the destruction of Israel replacing it with an Arab state and removal or slaughter of the Jews residing there, much the same as Abbas is currently working towards as there is not one stich of difference between Arafat and Abbas outside of their attire.

 

The filling in of the minutia is exactly the steps which are being laboriously worked through parsing every last terminology, checking the exact meaning of each and every word, even getting down to the punctuation so as not to miss even the slightest potential for some misunderstanding down the road which may lead to problems of vision as to whether or not the agreement was being fulfilled. This all takes time, inordinate amounts of time, copious amounts of time and this is as the Iranians desire as it also prevents any further real negotiating between the initial extension and the next deadline and meanwhile no actual progress has been achieved. Should one really desire to see what the final idea of an acceptable agreement would entail, all one need do is to research the statements and specifications defined by speeches, press releases and even Facebook and other social media postings made by the only person who actually holds power in Iran, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has made his position abundantly clear and despite it differing from nearly every statement made by President Hassan Rouhani, Parliamentary President Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, Foreign Minister and Chief Nuclear Negotiator Mohammad Javad Zarif or any of the other Iranian political elites. The Supreme Leader has stated in every possible manner that the sole item standing in the way of an agreement are the illogical and indefensible demands which the Western powers continue to stick to in an unprincipled and arrogant ignorance and denial of reality. He has repeatedly stated that it is the right and prerogative of Iran to continue to enrich uranium with as many centrifuges as they desire producing enriched uranium as they see fit for their purposes and the objections of other nations are irrelevant as Iran seeks only the peaceful use of nuclear power leaving nothing for the United States or the Europeans to object to. He has demanded that the Western powers simply realize the truths and respect Iranian independence and their rights as a nation which is their equal, possessing the right to exercise its rights just as any other nation does. The faster the United States and the Europeans relent from their ridiculous demands and show the proper respect of the Iranian people and their government then the faster an agreement which is in accord with the rights and privileges of the independent Iranian nation recognizing its dignities and right to proceed with their nuclear ambitions can be attained and signed. Unless Iran is given the same respect that the Western nations demand for themselves, the sooner the silliness of these talks can end and a serious debate can be held. Simply put, Iran is going to do what Iran wishes to do and the rest of the world can just sit back and observe, period.

 

The Iranian negotiators have agreed with Secretary of State Kerry on one very important point, an agreement and a point which the world would be very unwise in ignoring. They have both stated that there will be absolutely no need nor will there be any plan for further negotiations beyond the coming deadline which has been stated as being March 24, 2015. There are some who claim that technically the actual drop dead end to this round of talks is actually in June or even possibly July. That is of little comfort if the Iranians believe and are holding to the end of the debates being late March as they have claimed that that is their deadline and no extension will be considered. This means that we will very soon see exactly what almost two decades, should one count from the start of talks between the Europeans and Iran and not from the delayed entry of the United States, all has been an exercise in futility and has proceeded exactly as the Iranians had desired, simply stalling any other avenue such as that famous option which has constantly been right there on the center of the table never ever to be taken off of the table, let alone implemented, the military option. The United States view of ever making use of the military option has been made clear beyond the fact that President Obama has often informed the media, “I was elected to end wars, not to start them.” This has been carried to the point that on a number of occasions where Israel had been making preliminary arrangements for their utilizing of the military option, there were leaks suspected, and one even obviously, emanating from the White House which exploded any deals or arrangements coordinated by the Israelis. There was the leak that Israel had obtained overflight permission from the rulers of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, the leak of the leasing of two defunct military airfields from Azerbaijan and the United States stated position after Israel had arranged for overflight with Jordan that any unscheduled overflights of Iran would be intercepted by the United States and engaged and shot from the skies if such illegal flights were attempted. These leaks were all made known to the appropriate governments which would have made life very difficult for the nations involved with Israel forcing them to claim that all such information were completely false and that such cooperation with Israel could and would never ever be contemplated, let alone such agreement reached.

 

Meanwhile, the United States continues to lead the dancing troupe of diplomats from Europe all dancing to a tune skillfully orchestrated by the Iranian master manipulators all while making furious noise upon the world’s stage all signifying nothing. The next month will be spent with numerous State Department officials and specialists meeting in endless sessions with their Iranian counterparts going over every word, every spot of punctuation, researching countless thesauruses and dictionaries, translating terms between Farsi and English and even potentially Arabic just to make sure that everything means exactly what both sides think they mean and even potentially having the American side using a word repeatedly only to be countered by an Iranian claiming, “You keep using that word, I don’t think it means what you think it means.” There will be arguments, heated discourse, difficulties laboriously worked through and potentially even fists or even shoes slammed upon tabletops before stalking from the session. We have not had a good recorded footwear slammed on the tabletop since the fall of 1960, when in the midst of the debates at the United Nations concerning the Korean Crisis that Russian Premier Nikita Khrushchev reportedly did exactly that, slammed his shoe atop the table during a session of the Security Council and then led the Russian contingency stomping from the room. This is what supposedly allowed the Security Council the opportunity to pass a resolution permitting military force against North Korea leading to the still unsettled Korean War. It is doubtful that the Iranians would pull such a stunt though it would be a form of ultimate insult as shoes are often thrown as a sign of great disrespect for the targeted individual, ask former President George W. Bush who received just such treatment at the hands of an infuriated Iraqi reporter. The main objective of the Iranians, which will eventually become evident, is to run out the clock without having reached a final wording of an agreement so as to facilitate their walking from the negotiations without any agreement and then either declaring their intent to remove themselves from the restraints of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or to simply continue on to completing their preliminary nuclear weapons research and go on to manufacture nuclear weapons while continuing their research into larger, more powerful yet smaller nuclear devices as well as thermonuclear devices, often called hydrogen fusion devices, while never even bothering to formally depart from the NPT. The final piece which Iran has gained is ISIS and its threat to the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq. The Iranians are very likely to offer a grand deal to President Obama where they will provide the needed boots on the ground against ISIS providing the United States allow Iran a bundle of items in exchange. These include retaining the lands it recaptures from ISIS, allowing Iran to absorb the majority of Iraq and all of Syria and Lebanon, and allowing Iran complete freedom in the nuclear field as long as Iran also promises not to expose President Obama to any embarrassment by not revealing their nuclear arsenal’s existence until he has left office. After he has left office Iran would then be free to reveal their nuclear capability in a staggered manner in order to make it appear they had not gained their knowledge nor began assembling weaponized nuclear devices while President Obama was in office. All these promises would provide Obama with the cover he would require for his legacy which would include his preventing a nuclear Iran while bringing Iran back within the community of nations and reestablishing Iran-American relations. President Obama might even be permitted to reopen an American Embassy in Tehran. This may even be the best agreement that President Obama and the P5+1 might be able to accomplish as the alternative is an end to negotiations and leaving with their hands empty and less than nothing to show for all their endless efforts.

 

The end result will potentially be that President Obama will end up having no agreement and no prospect of an avenue to preventing the Iranians from the wholesale manufacturing of nuclear weapons and building a huge arsenal resulting in a Middle East nuclear weapons race which may very well result in some very nasty scenarios. What must be kept in mind is that Israel is far from the only nation sitting on the Iranian ‘do not send Christmas cards to list’ who instead might receive a nuclear device used as an EMP device exploding high over the center of the nation. The Iranians would love little more than to replace the Saudis from being the guardians of the Holy Cities of Mecca and Medina. Iran also had designs which are well on their way to fruition of incorporating much of Iraq as a province of the renewed Persian Empire simply renamed as the Iranian Empire. After Syria and Lebanon, Iran will be well on their way towards the reacquisition of the lands once controlled by the Persian Empire, about the only things missing from the Persian Empire would be Turkey, Jordan, Israel and a run through the Greek Islands after a very nasty and costly three days at the Pass of Thermopolis. Iran does not see the world through the same lens as does the Western nations. Iran looks at the Western nations as defunct, swimming in debt, morally corrupt, debaucherous, poorly ruled, lacking in direction and perched precariously just waiting to be nudged beyond the cusp and falling into a great chasm, a great abyss never to rise again. And who do the Iranians see as the successor to the Western Hegemony? Themselves, of course. They see themselves rolling across Europe in an easy conquest after subjugating the Middle East and slashing across Northern Africa unifying the entirety of the Muslim world placing themselves and Shia Islam as the preeminent force in all of Islam and as the subjugators of Sunniism. Their slicing across Europe would proceed with ease of effort as the United States would have been brought low after the EMP device was detonated high above St Louis or Kansas City. Once they had conquered Rome they would see that as having defeated all of Christendom, making their only remaining conquest to be Asia. Iran is seeking to conquer the world and they see nothing out in the world that could potentially pose any real or serious threat opposing such a conquest. They see the United States as a technological giant with a serious Achilles Heel, the complete and total reliance on that technology which requires electricity, great quantities of electricity, in order to feed that technology and without which the United States would be mortally wounded. They view Europe as simply waiting to be subjugated and they figure that the disarming of Europe after World War II and their continued military decline resulting from their emphasis on luxuries and frivolities and neglecting their military defense as their biggest weakness which has left them virtually defenseless.

 

The only remaining threat might be Israel which they have claimed is a one or two bomb nation which even with its nuclear capabilities still would not pose any serious threat to Islam as an entirety. Further, if the Iranians put off confronting Israel until they had conquered all the rest of the Middle East and potentially Northern Africa, then Israel would definitely not pose a threat to their entirety of conquest. The United States is a one or two bomb nation because they only need destroy the electrical grid and potentially a third and fourth bombs to take out New York City and Washington D.C. as that would wound America fatally in their financial and political hearts, especially if they struck when almost all of the political class is in the Capital building with the President as happened every January for the State of the Union Address. Should Iran partner initially with Russia, the Russians might realize too late that Iran has used them and had no plans on sparing them from their eventual subjugation under Islam. That leaves the two Asian heavyweights outside of Russia, namely China and India. Iran honestly regards themselves as the next hegemonic world power and sees nobody capable of standing in their way, a view the Western world should regard with great trepidations and respond potentially with great and furious force as anything less may leave the free world in a more serious predicament than they found themselves in when ignoring Winston Churchill and all the warnings he had laid out before them and refused the resistance through force he had demanded of them. The result was Dunkirk and almost the loss of the free world to Adolph Hitler. History does not repeat itself exactly the same each time but comes disguised as the past’s adopted cousin, something that acts similarly but is just different enough that it becomes difficult to detect. You know you have seen all this before but you are unable to draw the correct conclusion, sometimes that delay may make everything else too little too late.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

February 7, 2015

What ISIS Jordanian Pilot Barbarity Means for Humankind

 

While the United States was debating which retread political sloganeering to rally around for the next two years and the White House was deciding how next to interfere in Israeli politics and Egypt faced another terror menace in the Sinai and much of the world continued attempting to ignore the greatest threat to advancing humanity called ISIS, one leader depicted exactly how all of us should have reacted to the most barbaric sign of human regression since Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were plaguing mankind with their versions of barbarity, namely Jordanian King Abdullah II. His speech was not the most eloquent and did not draw upon high sounding words or propose great sweeping plans; his reaction was visceral, his anger tangible, and his resolve absolute. The man spoke of action and he then mobilized a nation unifying them behind his resolve to strike back at the evil that is ISIS. He ordered an immediate reprisal by the execution of two terrorists who sat on death row in Jordan, one of whom ISIS had bargained to exchange for the Jordanian pilot despite having already murdered him. Then on Thursday King Abdullah II visited the mourning tent of the fallen pilot, Lt. Muath Kassasbeh, which quickly escalated into a pro-war rally, with young men pledging their “blood and soul” to wage war against ISIS. There have been rumors that the King plans on leading airstrikes personally, though this is unlikely as though he is a skilled and able pilot, his experience is in rotary winged craft such as the Cobra in which he was trained when enrolled in the United Kingdom’s Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst in the 1980’s. Where the brutality by ISIS was intended to intimidate pilots from the coalition currently striking ISIS largely from the air, the effect on the nation of Jordan has been the opposite as the King has taken the lead and the nation has rallied behind him. King Abdullah II has a long and storied experience of hands-on training and working with the Jordanian military and is well respected amongst the officers and men. He previously commanded Jordanian Special Forces and has often flown himself on inspections of the military and situations around the nation.

 

The releasing Wednesday of satellite images of the pilots’ homes and an offer of a 100 golden-dinar-bounty by ISIS was intended to threaten other Jordanian pilots causing them to defect or at least refuse to fly further missions. After the video was released showing the gruesome fiery death of Jordanian Pilot Lt. Muath Kassasbeh, the Jordanian response has been exactly the opposite as one group of pilots overflew Lt. Kassasbeh’s village after returning to Jordanian air space after flying sorties against ISIS positions in Syria. This was just more evidence that the mood in Jordan has turned from slowly growing resistance against Jordanian missions in the coalition to one of total war footing to avenge this wrong done against every Jordanian, especially her pilots. The King showed his support for the pilot and his origins in the Bedouin community as he donned the traditional red Bedouin kefiyah passing on his message of tangible empathy with their pain when addressing the nation thus pledging the nation to stand in unity to avenge this national challenge. During King Abdullah II visit to the family’s grieving tent, Mohammed Kassasbeh, the pilot’s cousin, declared his desire to join Jordan’s military stating, “Muath was not the first martyr and will not be the last martyr for this country. We are at war and we are all prepared to fight.” His reactions were simply another piece of evidence of the changed mood in Jordan which has rallied behind the King and against ISIS.

 

Signaling what may be the next step in the Jordanian newly declared war with ISIS, says Jawad Anani, a Jordanian senator and former foreign minister, stated, “The Islamic State declared war on Jordan, its pilots, and security. We are going to see a military escalation, and the dispatch of ground forces is the next logical step.” Jordanian State media has run some stories indicating such a move possibly to gauge public sentiment and degree of backing for such a move. The potentially troubling reality is that over one-thousand-five-hundred Jordanians are estimated to have joined ISIS with dozens having risen to leadership positions. This provides ISIS with detailed intelligence of Jordanian society, its military and potential security weaknesses. These Jordanian volunteers within ISIS are suspected of assisting in the recent revelation of the names and even home addresses of Jordanian military pilots. Reactions on both sides of this now critical divide will prove telling over the coming weeks. Still, these events are making for an unusual pairing of anti-ISIS forces as Jordan and King Abdullah II have not had the best relations with Syrian dictator Bashir al-Assad yet both find themselves opposing ISIS though it would be foolish to expect any cooperation between the two countries or their militaries. It may have been partially due to the perception that ISIS was opposed to Syria and al-Assad which caused some Jordanians to join ISIS though that may be giving these volunteers too much credit for their knowledge of the political realm as they may simply have been drawn to join ISIS for the same vainglorious reasons that other youthful recruits have done so.

 

Where the Jordanian heated response will likely provide some additional force to the fight against ISIS, Jordan alone will not be sufficient to turn the tide against them all that much faster. Much will depend on whether Jordanian troops are injected into the fight on the ground, the component which is sorely needed if ISIS is to be degraded and defeated with any alacrity. The best of situations would have included other nations, especially the members of the GCC (Gulf Cooperative Council) led by Saudi Arabia, which had made gestures not long ago of their desire to include Jordan amongst its members, signaling their intentions to join Jordan in their efforts and also joining Jordan in the denunciations of the barbarity shown by ISIS in their burning alive of the Jordanian pilot. Such has not been the case and by all initial indications, the remainder of the Sunni world remains mostly asleep and blissful in their ignoring of the threat posed by ISIS.

 

The remainder of any efforts to crush ISIS will unfortunately fall upon a leaderless Western coalition which appears to be paralyzed waiting for someone to take the lead. The obvious leader would normally have been the United States but alas the President is too full of waging his war on the Republicans to bother with saving the world from the barbarian at their gates. Much of President Obama’s actions, such as his hypocritical denunciations of the Judeo-Christian world for their barbarity of six to fifteen hundred years ago as a reason to disqualify them from passing judgment on any barbarity being waged against the world currently during his speech delivered at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington D.C. this past week, tend to equate historical shortcomings of Christianity with similar barbarisms committed today in the name of Islam. With Washington asleep at the switch, can the world honestly expect anybody else to step up and take the lead and join Jordan in what may prove to be the beginning of the singular greatest challenge of the coming century? If such a national leader exists, please have them hurry as the world awaits its savior despite the probability that whoever steps forward will more likely be pilloried as a wild, warmongering hooligan than hailed as the potential new leader of the civilized world. By all appearances, the old powers of civility, that would be the members of the European Union, the great moralizers when it comes to Israel, the United States, and especially the exceptional positions taken in the last few years by the Canadians, apparently are content to quake in fear that Russia might turn its ravenous gaze in their direction to worry about the growing menace in the heart of the Middle East. The other potential leadership might come from Israel except that such a move would be more likely to band together the forces of the Arab and Muslim worlds to stand with ISIS than to stand against ISIS.

 

The problem is that many in the Middle East view ISIS as a problem between Syria and Iraq and their allies Iran and Hezballah than as a threat to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt or the rest of the GCC membership, thus they are content to sit on the sidelines as much as possible hoping that ISIS and the Iranian axis will beat each other to death and thus remove them as viable challenges in the future. The problem with such a view is there is just as much a possibility that Iran will come out the winner of the struggle against ISIS and in the process cement their influence and domination of the areas surrounding Saudi Arabia and her GCC allies and in a position to strangle their oil trade. Iran with its Houthis allies now taking the preeminent position in Yemen are now also threatening to seize control of the mouth to the red sea and thus be in a position to block all sea traffic passing through the Suez Canal which would deliver the deathblow to the Egyptian’s fragile economic situation. Should Iran control both the Straits of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, they would have a complete stranglehold on the Gulf oil kingdoms and all trade between Europe and Asia by controlling the southern exit from the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With Iran threatening such complete control over the maritime trade routes, especially those of oil and Euro-Asian trade routes, they could quickly bring the world to its knees within weeks. Further, combining this with their land hegemony including Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, they would also block the major land routes between Europe and Asia. The main stumbling block may currently be ISIS but they will not be able to withstand a full on assault by Iran, especially once Iran completes their negotiations with the west in March and retain their supposed right to enrich Uranium. That is the sole item they need to ensure they acquire from the negotiations with the P5+1 (United States, France, United Kingdom, Russia, China and Germany) over their nuclear program; and if they succeed, then G0d help us all.

 

The current sticking point appears to be over the numbers of centrifuges that Iran will be permitted to keep operationally and interconnected as the United States was initially pressing for hundreds while Iran has demanded the full nineteen-thousand as well as the right to continue research into even more advanced centrifuges and the right to produce and substitute them as they become available. The initial approval for Iran to retain their ability for the continuation of their research into even higher speeds and greater yield potentials from their centrifuges and the implementing the newer and higher capacity centrifuges replacing older models as they become available has all the appearances of being a done deal. Recently Secretary of State Kerry allowed to slip out the negotiating prerogatives of the United States when he stated that the United States would continue to present their positions and those that the Iranians balked on or rejected would simply be ignored and the next point brought forward for discussion. The implication was that the United states desired a deal, any deal, to such an extent that they are willing to forego any and every demand and restriction they had sought just so a deal would be attained by the fast approaching March 24 deadline. This mention of the latest surrender by the United States and their intention to surrender all the way to a deal, if that was what was required, leaves those hoping that the United States had actually intended to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear breakout point without any real restrictions to their achieving nuclear weapons production, presumably before anybody being able to detect their doing so, let alone actually taking measures to prevent such an occurrence, now must prepare for the world with a nuclear armed Iran.

 

The United States default position now appears to rely completely on deterrence and to have surrendered on prevention of a nuclear armed Iran. Does anybody honestly believe that Iran would not announce their breakout to nuclear weapons nation by dropping two or three tactical nuclear devices of limited yields onto ISIS positions in order to bring their threat to a halt while letting the rest of the nations in the area be stunned into submission. That would simply be the starting gun on nuclear proliferation across the entire Middle East with Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and who knows who else is racing to gain nuclear parity with the Iranians as quickly as they are able. After the entire Middle East and North Africa attain nuclear weapons capability, how long before somebody uses their nuclear weapons to preemptively strike another nation or clandestinely provides a nuclear device to terror entities for delivery anywhere in the world. That is the future which is rapidly approaching and this will only be further facilitated as claims will initially be made that nuclear weaponizing the military was a necessity in order to prevent the spread of ISIS which then becomes prevent the spread of who next and then after that what happens. This could be made less of a possibility if only somebody from the Western world would stand up and take the lead as the United States is in permanent surrender mode for the time being. That much should have become evident by now, so who wants to take the lead until the world comes to their senses, if it ever does?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

December 9, 2013

Northeastern Saudi and Eastern Gulf Oil Fields the New Sudetenland

Once Iran has successfully attained their nuclear weapons credentials the world will begin to see their long-term plans. The presumption that first thing Iran will do once they have a deliverable nuclear weapon is attack Israel is highly doubtful. One reason is that the leadership uses the Israel issue to explain away any difficulties experienced by their society by claiming that it is a result of evil perpetrated by the Zionists. The Iranian threats against America are equally simply propaganda they feed the people to give them an external target.  Iran also knows that if they should attack either Israel or the United States that the price they would pay would be beyond anything their society could survive. Even if an Iranian attack on Israel was completely successful it would not prevent a return strike even if that strike had to originate from Israeli submarines weeks later or even months later, that strike would still decimate Iran. Any retaliation from the United States after an Iranian attack, well, I doubt there needs to be any comment on the ferocity with which the United States would respond if they were hit in numerous locations by an Iranian nuclear first strike. So, that leaves the question that if Iran is not developing a nuclear threat capability for Israel or the United States, then why go through all the sanctions and other difficulties as well as the expense of the program itself.

 

Iran is not seeking a nuclear arsenal with which to dominate the world, at least not initially, and they are not seeking to destroy the United States or Israel, but they do want to make anybody who might intervene on the real Iranian plans to have the doubt of attacking a nuclear armed nation to consider before they move to control the Middle East and its oil reserves. The first target the Iranians would most likely make some inroads upon would be the nations along the eastern rim of the Saudi Peninsula, especially those with sizeable Shiite populations. Those would include Bahrain with a population that is 70% Shiite, Kuwait with a population that is 25% Shiite, United Arab Emirates with a population approaching 20% Shiite and lastly the northeastern oil fields of Saudi Arabia where the majority of Saudi Shiites reside and where they are a clear majority. There could potentially be calls from the Shiite populations within these areas for their repatriation with Shiite Iran much the same as was done by the Sudetenland and their repatriation into Nazi Germany after the signing of the Munich Agreement of 1938 by which France and Britain sacrificed northern Czechoslovakia to placate Hitler and presumably forgo any possibility of a war. The same eventuality will result if the Western allies turn their backs on Saudi Arabia and the other nations which might come under threat from Iran and allow these lands to be sacrificed giving in to Iran simply to avoid testing a nuclear power and presumably avoid a very horrid war. The result would be that by handing Iran control over the vast majority of the Middle East oil reserves would result in energy blackmail being the new Iranian economic weapon through which they would seek hegemony over an ever increasing area of the world. Eventually their appetite would become obviously insatiable and the continued surrendering to their demand unsustainable thus eventually leading to war but where the Iranians would possesses a far greater ability and strength due to the weakness shown by mostly the Western powers who were doing whatever they could to avoid that very same war when it was easily winnable. This result is only achievable in a case where the United States is in an isolationist mode or a period of weakness where the President has taken a position of avoiding any foreign entanglements and has defaulted on the United States presumed responsibility to act as the leader of the free world. What it would take is an American President who would solely lead from behind and allow others to take the initiative while the United States sat on the sidelines and watched.

 

This exact scenario would explain why the Iranians were willing to suffer the sanctions no matter the difficulties even to an extreme level simply in order to complete their nuclear weapons program before the United States changed its people in the leadership of the country. The reason they were able to come and negotiate the recent agreement were twofold, first they knew that with the reelection of President Obama they had another four years of an American military superpower in remission and unlikely to interfere with any Iranian plans and secondly they also knew that President Obama wanted an agreement which would allow him to concentrate fully on his Administration’s primary areas of concern, the fundamental transformation of the United States into just another overstretched, overtaxed, over-indebted socialist nation which is undistinguishable from any nation in the European Union. The final steps are in the works with the soon to be offered solution to the failure that is Obamacare, a single payer government healthcare system along with the other final touches which include a higher than reasonable minimum wage (also called a living wage), guaranteed minimum salary even for those who are unemployed through permanent unemployment insurance and other social safety nets, a scaled down military which is understaffed, undertrained, and underfunded making it unable to do more than patrol the waters and skies domestically and have virtually zero projection of force capabilities. Iran has seen what the United States is transforming into and they are counting of just this transformation to allow them to step up in the not so distant future and become a world power equal or better equipped than the United States and with more energy reserves after annexing the Saudi Arabian oilfields and with only China as a foreseeable equal. Iran will first try to become the superpower of the Muslim World, then of the Middle East and North Africa, then of everything west of China and eventually vying for hegemony of the Americas. This sounds preposterous but probably so did a nuclear powered North Korea and next a nuclear armed Iran, who or what next is anybody’s guess. Should Saudi Arabia be allocated a nuclear deterrent by Pakistan, as is their informal agreement under which the Saudis financed the Pakistani nuclear weapons program after India tested their initial nuclear weapon, then the entire shooting match between Iran and Saudi Arabia could become the stage for a truly frightening game of brinkmanship with both sides trying to make the other blink, and then hold on to your hats. That has the potential of turning very ugly very fast and the repercussions are as unpredictable as they can get. Perhaps bowing to Iran as was the case in the recent Geneva agreement was the fateful rolling of the dice and one is still spinning while the other came up a one, a second one means snake-eyes, everybody loses.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Blog at WordPress.com.