Beyond the Cusp

March 7, 2012

Super Tuesday and My Opinion for What it’s Worth

We are looking at a night where the presumed authorities all said that the only primary which counted was Ohio as all the others were preordained by early predictions. So, what does the virtual tie which will split the delegates almost right down the middle mean in the long look at the race? We learned that you can buy a victory, something I am personally very familiar with from my one dip in the wading pool of national politics. My third party candidacy for the House of Representatives, the one in Washington DC, I lost in the vote count but won if you determined number of votes per dollar spent on the campaign. My friends tell me even getting on the ballot was a victory which is more comforting today than back then. But after comparing that my two opponents spent a combined amount in excess of $5,000,000.00 against my huge outlay of $33,000 you find my spending was a less than 0.75% of what was spent. Somehow I received just over 3% of the vote, kind of embarrassing but I can still claim to have gotten more votes for my dollar. Granted, Mitt Romney is outspending Rick Santorum and the rest of the candidates by somewhat less than my opponents outspent my campaign, but over 10 to 1 is a significant difference for such a minor victory. Romney does not have much to crow about.

 

The real story so far in this primary campaign season has been the coverage of the race more than the races themselves and the trial of using proportional representation in many states in assigning their delegates. The proportional delegate assignments is going to be a real plus should this be continued as it will force closer races to actually be represented as such instead of the race being done on super Tuesday. Tonight the talking heads are trying to make the slight Romney win as a sign of the end of the race making him the odds on favorite if not already nominated Republican candidate. The delegate count is nowhere near at a point where anybody is even within sight of the needed count to win the nomination on the first ballot. Yet, I keep listening to these talking heads telling me to go to bed and not bother with the election until November. The only thing I can relate is it is not over and the fat lady has not even been out on the stage as of yet. Should Romney continue and actually win the nomination solely dependent on his deep pockets and disproportional spending and still only manage squeakers splitting the delegates almost sown the middle, how can he expect to beat President Obama who will easily outspend the Republican candidate similarly to Romney’s primary strategy. Considering the investment one would expect Mitt Romney to easily be winning 65% or even 75% of the votes and thus winning entire delegate counts from these states, not sharing evenly with a candidate that was all but unheard from just a few weeks ago. The talk at the front end of these primaries generated questions as to why Rick Santorum had not simply taken the hint and gone home, yet now we are discussing Rick Santorum as making a race out of these primaries and there may still be a few more surprises in store for the talking heads. Much may depend on whether or not Newt Gingrich continues on through to the very end. To be fair, the other way to stop Mitt Romney might be for Santorum to drop out giving his delegates to Newt Gingrich, or they could both drop out and give their delegates to Ron Paul. I think we all know that Ron Paul is in the race to the very bitter end. My hope is that the race soon becomes a three candidate race though I will not hold my breath.

 

The most important singular item is the proportional assignment of delegates which is going to prolong this race well beyond this week. Without this change we would not even be discussing the Republican primaries as it really would be just about all over. By going to a more representative delegate system the Republicans have very likely stretch out the campaign and will thus achieve exactly what was the aim, more people having their say count and the race going much deeper into the primaries. The talk about a bartered Republican Convention was all the talk early on and predicted to be a definite possibility. This prediction was assessed back before even the Iowa caucuses and has proven to have been a premature fear that is no longer likely. The assignment of delegates has run fairly even between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum with Newt Gingrich holding a small share of delegates. Well, guess now all we can do is wait and watch. With any luck it will continue to be, if nothing else, informative and anything but boring. So far it has been anything but predictable as we have watched a parade in which we went through every candidate as the non-Romney and only time will tell if any more grand changes in the tides of battle are in the future.

 

The last item from Super Tuesday came from the caucus in North Dakota. Mitt Romney was predicted to take that caucus by many due to his greater sized organization. Something went horribly wrong according to the reports I heard and Rick Santorum was chosen in the North Dakota caucus. The race continues and sooner or later we will know who will be chosen to be the Republican candidate to run against President Obama this fall. The final win count for Super Tuesday was Romney with 5, Santorum with 3, and Gingrich with 1. As close as those numbers are, the delegate counts will, once all has settled out and been computed, be even closer between the two leaders, Santorum and Romney. At least it has not been a clean sweep as last primary cycle otherwise I would have one less subject to write about.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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