Beyond the Cusp

June 13, 2019

The Palestinian Peace and Leadership Dilemma

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 2:07 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

 

There is a simple reason behind all the reasons and all the difficulties and all the problems concerning the Palestinian Arabs and their respective societies. The first problem which strikes one is it is a matter of the leadership. But even they are trapped by their own avarice, greediness, self-professed greatness and simple lack of concern for those they rule. But their problem is also one of a cause divided and this is where we will begin. The divide is deeper than Palestinian Authority (Fatah) against Hamas with Islamic Jihad. The divide exists amongst the people who speak slightly different dialects of Arabic. The ones in the Shomron (West Bank) speak a variant of Jordanian dialect with a mix of Iraqi and Syrian included while in Gaza they have a more Egyptian dialect. The two groups are genealogically separate as well. This is part of the reason that the two groups’ societies react differently when it comes to violence against Israel. The one ruled by the Palestinian Authority look at their difficulty as a political problem where they need to force Israel to recognize their dreams of statehood, a dream which mostly disappears once one of them is outside their community completely and integrated into a new community and a normal life. The Arab Palestinians in Gaza are largely Egyptians who have become caught up in the Hamas and Islamic Jihad contempt for Israel in general and the Jewish People in particular. They are more prone to violence and mass demonstrations. They have bought into the Hamas revolutionary story and believe that Hamas will lead them to a victory over Israel and they will conquer Israel and take its wealth for themselves. What has been kept as a secret and not expounded upon often is that the two groups of people do not particularly even like one another. There exists no brotherly love or desire for unity between the two populations. Of course, if their governments ever agreed upon merging, they would merge but the two populations would remain largely separate.

 

Then there is the problem of money, and it is not the lack of money that is the problem. Mahmoud Abbas has channeled much of the cash flow which passes through the Palestinian Authority to his three sons and all his devoted followers who make sure he remains in power. Hamas is no different and all of its past leaders have pretty much retired with more money than they can blow through in an entire lifetime, though we are sure they will try to do just that. Neither set of leaders care to solve the problems they have molded from ant hills into what is visually a mountain but, in reality, is still an ant hill. They do it with smoke and mirrors, but mostly smoke. The recent scare is that the Palestinian Authority is dead broke and is unable to pay their government workers and also have enough to pay those and families of those who have murdered Israelis. In the end they cut their government workers’ salaries in half to pay the murderers of Jews, and that is their phrasing. When the Arab Palestinian leadership complains to the world that they are broke, it does not mean what you or I would consider broke. What this means is that their cash flow has been reduced from the Amazon River in the height of the rainy season to the Ganges River at the end of Summer before the Monsoons. Their complaint that they do not have the money necessary to meet obligations means that after they have skimmed most of their usual take right off the top, then they are without sufficient funds to continue and take their large percentage, possibly well over half, and still have sufficient to pay the murderers and also their government workers. Most of the working public are government employees of one sort or another.

 

Refined Living in Gaza

Refined Living in Gaza

 

What is so ridiculous is that were the Arab Palestinian leadership to complain that Israel had stolen all of their dandelions, half the European countries along with countless others would be growing dandelions under perfect conditions in order to have them bloom quickly to produce seeds to give the Arab Palestinian leaders to fill the terrible gap they were claiming to face. When Hamas was screaming about their lack of medical provisions, the IDF contributed to truck leads of the exact items they were complaining about and delivered them to Gaza. Hamas left these provisions to rot in the sun, rain, weather, whatever. Soon they were ruined and Hamas was still screaming about their terrible situation. The Palestinian Authority, of course, did not lift a finger to assist their brothers’ in Gaza who were in need, or so we were being told. The real truth was that they had sufficient medical provisions to treat those in need of medical care and this was more a ploy to gain funds than to gain gauze, balms, ointments, bandages or other medical provisions. As long as the leadership, their families, cohorts, security details, relatives and friends are all raking in the cash, there will be no solution and no peace. The over abundance of cash flowing through the Arabs residing in the Shomron and Gaza is more the problem than increasing it would be a solution. The funding to the Arab Palestinians has increased beyond the point of reason. President Trump addressing this situation through economic means is dead in the water as increasing their cash flow will merely increase their graft and greed. We will get back to the rumored Trump plan about to be unveiled later. It may simply be throwing money to surrounding countries who could not actually care less about their Arab Palestinian brothers and sisters and are simply taking all who are willing to cough up the cash for a ride.

 

The next difficulty is that the entire attempt to replace Israel with an Arab Palestinian nation was not even an idea that was broached before 1964 and even after the September 1964 roll out of the Arab League and KGB production despite it not yet being ready for prime time and was still being fleshed out. Within a decade the Arab Palestinians had become the cause celeb amongst those who knew that their leftist, anti-Judeo-Christian, Israel is the problem positions were the most proper and correct positions they could ever hold. How many of these celebs had ever been to Israel? Well, none as it is near impossible to support the BDS (Boycott, Divestment and Sanction) Movement and actually visit Israel as that is amongst the things most certainly verboten. They view Israel to be such a horrid place where people are killed in the streets hourly, if even that infrequently, and it gets even worse in the areas of Israeli oppression as Israel is also practicing ethnic cleansing by removing Arabs by force as well as Israel practicing genocide using the IDF sweeping areas clean of Arab existence all of which explains why there are more Arab Palestinians year after year. Do these people ever stop and think their claims through? We mean like, really, do they have such a low opinion of the abilities of the IDF and Israel that if Israel desired the death of the Arab Palestinians, something we would never consider, that there would be any left alive after a few weeks for them to still protest using the same old adages including that Israel is committing genocide.

 

When the PLO was founded, their desired end was for their terrorist group, and they proudly exclaimed that they would be dealing in terror, would remove the Jews from Israel and then hand the lands to Jordan or sometimes Egypt or both. They had no claims for making themselves into a nation and instead saw them becoming Jordanian or Egyptian. The PLO distinctly stated they had a complete lack of concern for the West Bank (Shomron) or Gaza. Their reasoning was simply, these two regions were occupied by Arab nations so there were no Jews to expel. Egypt held Gaza illegally since they gained the region during their 1948 War to Eliminate the Jews and their State while Jordan held the Shomron region and had annexed it with three nations having recognized their annexation, Britain, Iraq and Pakistan. The Arab League even resisted granting recognition of the Jordanian move. The PLO laid their sights upon Israel and that target has never changed, it has simply regained lands which belonged to Israel legally from the outset. The defined borders for Israel were laid down at San Remo and confirmed by the British Mandate though the British decided that the Jews really would never require lands east of the Jordan River, so they gifted them to the Arabs and to the Hashemites so as to fulfill their promise to give both sons a nation of their own to rule. The other son got Iraq and was gifted the region presumably dedicated to the formation of a country for the Kurds, Kurdistan, but as these lands included the Mosul oil fields, the British cut a deal with the ruling son in Iraq and in exchange gifted him the region of Kurdistan. The Kurds have been denied rectifying this terrible injustice but other than Israel, very few are interested in the Kurds and their situation. Meanwhile, if the protesters really desired that justice be done, promises met and the rights of the Jewish People to be granted that which the world promised through the League of Nations, then the protest chant should be more along the lines of,

From the River to the Sea replete,
Israel will be made complete.

So, the problem for making peace is not money as the Arab Palestinians are the most supported group in the world by a large factor (see graph below). Their difficulty is they have predicated their hopes and desires on the removal through slaughter of the nation of Israel. Many of these Arab Palestinians would murder every individual in Israel should they have the opportunity while virtually all would agree that at the very least all the Jews must be eradicated. That is a definitive and central theme behind their education system, the books used by their education system, the naming of streets, squares, schools, sports parks, sporting events and virtually everything else which requires naming, even to include their children, after known terrorists with those who are valued the most as they murdered a larger number of Israelis (Jews), or as they refer to their victims, Zionist dogs. All of these items and far more has led to their raising a generation of, now, young adults who have a glorified view of murdering Jews, Israelis, Zionists and all those who have been set as enemies of the Arab Palestinians. Their hate has also been set against the United States and President Trump whom they view as a buffoon and a tool of the Zionists. This is why their leadership can reject President Trump’s peace proposals sight unseen before they have even been presented. They have no real desire for a homeland as much as they desire the destruction of somebody else’s nation, Israel.

 

Graph of Aid Money to Palestinian Territories and other needful locations

Graph of Aid Money to Palestinian Territories and other needful locations

 

The position to erase the nation of Israel simply because the Zionists had the audacity to decide to create something that, according to the Arabs and the Quran presumably, had never existed and was now stealing consecrated Islamic Arab lands, which cannot be viewed as the homelands of the Jews because the Jews are an accursed people forced to roam the world being forced from one nation to the next and those refusing to leave when told are to be murdered. The Arabs claim that the Jews have never had a homeland in this region as there has never been an actual nation located in this area and none of the cities have ever been the capital of any nation or people ever since the Arabs conquered the region. The problem is that the Islamic faith teaches that Islam existed before the world and man were created as it is the law by which their concept of their deity lives by and expects all the people of Earth to live by the Quran. They further believe that history for any region began once they had conquered the area and that once made Islamic, it may never be altered or removed from Islamic rule. Their belief is that the world began, at least all that is important, around fourteen-hundred years ago as they spread throughout the Middle East and across North Africa. They pretend not to know that Israel and the Jewish homelands have existed for close to four-thousand years and the initial deed is recorded in the Bible. They view Israelis to be European despite the known fact that the Arab world spat out virtually all of their Jews within the decade after they failed to destroy the nascent state of Israel. These near to eight-hundred-fifty-thousand Jews altered the face of Israel making the Europeans merely half of the population. These Arab Palestinians are bombarded day and night with propaganda relating to how totally awful the Israelis are and how they are responsible for everything which ails them. This is also the sorry excuse behind most of the economically challenged nation where the reason for their situation has nothing to do with their actions as they performed flawlessly but the Jews, or Israelis, came like thieves in the night and stole whatever riches and lands which actually all belonged to the Arabs initially. This is a difficult storyline to use and try to rectify with the known timeline which depicts the arrival of the Arabs who currently make up much of the population came after the Jews arrived, cleared the lands, began irrigation, drained the swamps and connected the region with electrical power. These economic improvements implied there would be jobs and people would have cash which the Arabs gave them an opportunity for employment,

 

The basic problem the world will have with the Arab Palestinians is that the developed world follows the idea of building for the future while the Arab Palestinians desire destroying Israel and tearing down everything the Jews and Israelis have built. The Arab Palestinians are dedicated to the destruction of Israel. This was behind the Gaza rioting replete with the launching of incendiary balloons intending to spread fire destroying all that they were able to set alight. The Arabs, particularly those in Gaza, make great calls on their people to sacrifice themselves for the cause. They make efforts to publicly revere and celebrate death with this taught to youth in an all aspects of their lives. This culture of death taught to children all but demands that they sacrifice their own lives for the cause. They are raised being taught that day to day life is a hard, difficult slog lasting day after day until you die and possibly go to heaven where there is plenty of water, beautiful with lush meadows, flowing rivers and fruit trees. But if you were to die fighting those evil Jews, then your soul is whisked off to heaven straight away with all sins forgiven where you receive seventy-two perpetual virgins who will see to your every need, and they are very explicit going into some depth about how these women would serve, please and pleasure them. Their teachers are largely from Hamas or Islamic Jihad with their core teachers being Imams. These people teach their children to have a deep-seated hatred for the Zionists alongside their expounding about their culture of death. Such is a dangerous and potentially volatile combination. Is it any wonder that the Palestinian Arab culture and life with so little regard for their day to day lives and such an emphasis on death that they have so many youths risking their lives in a hopeless assault on the border wall with total disregard for their own lives. Then again, on the other hand, these youths could simply by depending on the Israeli love for life thus their IDF practices what we preach and do not take lives needlessly. But the brainwashing by the Arab Palestinian leaders leaves little if any hope of peace now or in the distant future.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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May 22, 2019

Iranian Threats Must be Taken Deadly Seriously

 

Many in the Western World will claim that we should take threats made by Iran with a large measure of salt. Their reasoning is that no sane leader would risk such destruction upon their nation, its infrastructure and especially its people. We could not argue with this reasoning as no sane leader would risk such destruction. There are two slight problems with this reasoning as it has been applied to Iran. First is that the Ayatollahs, especially the most important Ayatollah, the Supreme Leader, do not believe that the United States would risk war with Iran because they believe they hold the same belief that President Trump is bluffing and would not risk the destruction Iran believes they could inflict upon the United States. This brings us to something which is necessary for going any further in this standoff review.

 

First, we will look at the United States and what they might be capable of inflicting upon Iran. The United States has replaced the aircraft carrier group in the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean, as the former group had been rotated to their home port, plus another carrier group in the eastern Mediterranean in addition to the fleet normally in the Mediterranean. Further, the United States has repositioned an entire B-52 Wing stationed in the region in the American base in Qatar. The aircraft carrier group was already scheduled for positioning and is not an additional deployment and as thus is merely part of the rotation of naval forces. The main additional threat is the B-52 Wing which provides some heavy bombers which are nuclear capable and can also carry the MOAB (Massive Ordinance Air Blast) nicknamed the Mother of all Bombs due to its size. This ordinance is a supersized Daisey Cutter and has an equivalence of eleven tons TNT forming a blast radius of one mile in every direction from the detonation point. Even using normative bombs, the B-52 specialty is performing what is called carpet bombing destroying large swaths of a region the plane overflies. The additional item is the B-52’s fly in formations in which one of the aircraft is what is called an electronics plane which specializes in jamming radars, giving false radar returns of additional B-52 Wings miles away from the actual group, diverting anti-aircraft missiles of numerous varieties and other electronic means for defending the wing. The naval forces America has within range of Iran includes a number of missile cruisers and frigates which have numerous varieties of missiles and warheads including nuclear warheads. But all of these are items the Iranians are fully aware but one has to wonder what the United States has in the region which Iran does not have when forming their equation. With any naval fleet there are some selection of submarines stationed within range of the fleet and even within the fleet to augment their abilities. There could be attack submarines which could assist with intercepting ships, including fast ships, and also could pass discreetly into the Persian Gulf. Then there is a possibility of submarines carrying missiles including what are called Boomers which carry nuclear missiles. Between the numerous assets the United States has advertised they have placed in the regions around Iran are sufficient to eradicate targets throughout Iran from specific targets to entire metropolitan regions and do so with conventional weapons. We are taking it on faith that the United States would not resort to the use of nuclear weapons except under the most serious of provocations.

 

Now, for the Iranian side of the equation which is less well defined. There is one wild card in the Iranian equation which is totally dependent upon the current location of the fleet they claimed to have deployed for stationing in the western region of the North Atlantic Ocean specifically to situate itself along the Eastern Seaboard of the United States. Of course, Iran has not stated that they intend to attack the United States mainland but has threatened the American naval assets in their region. The main threat coming from the Iranians is that should they come under attack, any attack by any country, they will completely destroy Israel immediately thereafter. Their threats have included the intent to use nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction such as biological or chemical weapons. Iran would not need to launch a single missile, launch aircraft to bomb Israel, they simply can send the order to their terror forces in the region to launch all-out attacks on Israel and sit back and watch. So, what are the forces and what are their weapons they might use. The one many people are already familiar with are Islamic Jihad, a direct arm of the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), as well as Hamas to attack Israel with various rockets which are capable of striking near Jerusalem and the entirety of the Tel Aviv metropolitan region all the way to Haifa in the north and possibly bring down some of the skyscrapers in the center of Tel Aviv all from Gaza. That would likely be the Iranian opening strike in order to entangle Israel and the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) in Gaza in the south. Then, after two or three days waiting for the IDF to be forced to become fully involved with the Iranian terror extension in Gaza. Then Iran would unleash their main force in the region out of Syria and Lebanon backed by whatever IRGC forces they might have stationed in Syria, that being Hezballah. Hezballah has approximately one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles of varying sizes and ranges. Their largest can strike all of Israel and beyond with very large warheads including biological and chemical warheads and, if they have them, nuclear warheads (see map below).

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah also has access to the entirety of the Lebanese military weapons. These weapons include numerous Russian tanks, armored vehicles and anti-tank missiles as well as American Abrams Main Battle Tanks, armored vehicles and helicopters as well as whatever Iran has been capable of smuggling to the Hezballah terrorist army, and it is an army, make no mistake about that. Additionally, Hezballah has dug an unknown number of tunnels under the Israeli border to use as an intricate part of their invasion plans in addition to the tunnels and bunkers they have spread over southern Lebanon across the entirety of Lebanon below the Litany River. Any assault by Hezballah would initially be a massive firing of rockets with the hope that when Israeli Air Force arrives to end the barrage that they will be able to use the anti-aircraft missiles they probably possess. There have been rumors that Hezballah has been equipped with the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft systems as well as shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles such as MANPADS and Stinger Missiles. At some point the Hezballah Army and the IDF would engage. The plan from Iran is that after forcing the IDF to engage with Islamic Jihad and Hamas and other terrorist groups operating in Gaza, then Israel would not have top-line elite forces left to engage their main force from in Lebanon supported out of Syria. Their thinking may or may not be valid. That may be mistaken as Israel could alter their normal division of forces and use weapons which Israel has normally deployed. Then again, Israel has not been required to engage with Gaza and Hezballah at the same time. There is one means to which Israel could resort which she normally does not use. No, we are not talking about nuclear weapons or any other weapons of mass destruction. Israel also has missiles, very accurate missiles with various warheads. What kinds of warheads? The normal answer to this question is, if we told you we would have to kill you, but that is too trite. Israel has the normal range of warheads of any first-world nations which include EMP (both nuclear and conventional), high explosive, incendiary, fuel-air (thermobaric) and various others including nuclear should such an exchange become necessary.

 

But what else would such an attack cause? Israel has stated that should Hezballah attack that Iran would not be spared. Iran definitely has S-300 and potentially has S-400 Russian anti-aircraft and missile systems. How sophisticated are the Israeli missiles? We know they are accurate and that they include advanced cruise missiles but the cruise missiles would require being launched from aircraft or naval vessels closer to Iran to be within their range. Israeli aircraft are almost exclusively fighter jets whose range would not permit any extended time over targets in order to reach Iran unless they were granted landing rights from a nation between Israel and Iran. Releasing the name of any Arab or Islamic nation which might have agreed to give Israeli fighters landing rights if necessary was the method by which President Obama kept Israel from inhibiting the Iranian production of nuclear weapons. Things have changed, or so we are led to believe. That will remain to be seen as time reveals what will become history.

 

What is frightening for Israelis, Iranians and potentially far beyond even to the United States is what follows a war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. Such a war would immediately escalate to include Israel almost immediately. The entirety of the Israeli anti-missile systems would be tested to or beyond its ability, we can merely pray that it is up to the task as Iran has intimated that she would launch as many nuclear tipped missiles as it would take to get at least two of them through the Israeli defenses as they believe that would be sufficient to completely wipe Israel from the map. This begs the question as to exactly what it would take to prove that Iran had launched a nuclear tipped missile at Israel simply from the remains of the successful interception of such a missile. Would sufficient crucial pieces remain which could be used to prove such a case? Would anybody actually believe any proof Israel provided? What would result from such an exchange?

 

Well, the answer is that nothing would change and Iran would not be decimated while Israel might remain. So, for argument’s sake we will assume Israel also survives any such conflict. The very first thing would be the condemnation of the United Nations General Assembly of Israel demanding that Israel cease their hostile and unprovoked attacks. Then would come the various agencies of the United Nations followed by a litany of nations largely from the Group of 77, the coalition of one-hundred-thirty-four developing nations which have mostly followed the Arab and Muslim worlds blindly and thus will gleefully condemn Israel and exonerate Iran and turn on the United States if given any chance to do so. The chance that such a conflict would widen into a greater conflagration is actually small. There exists a possible path should Russia get involved and side with Iran. First thing is that Russia and Iran (Persia) have a long and violent history of ill wills. Russia is favorable to Israel as first, there are a large number of Russians in Israel, second, they admire what Israel has accomplished and third, Russia wants no part of a conflict with any nuclear capable nation with advanced missiles and pinpoint guidance systems. Fortunately, the majority of the Arab world being Sunni Muslims and untrusting of Persian, especially when they are Shiite, will simply wait any war involving Iran out unless attacked by Iran. We can assume that any nation which may end up fighting Iran will not be concerned with engaging the Arabs world as well. So, as long as Russia stands aside there will be little chance of this war widening beyond Iran, the United States and Israel. Nobody else wishes to have a dog in this fight and to be honest, Israel would love nothing more than to sit any and all future wars out.

 

 

The best solution to this would be the United States and Iran talking and making a new deal, but there has been some bad blood from the United States withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) and demanding a renegotiation in which the terms would be far less advantageous for Iran. The Ayatollahs, specifically Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei who is the one who believes he got sand kicked into his face by President Donald Trump. This is something that Supreme Leaders, Kings, Emperors and other dictators take very badly and tend to react violently. We may find the answer as to whether the Supreme Leader Khamenei was serious about sacrificing the people and nation of Iran in order to destroy Israel and the United States or was he blowing smoke to try and appear more powerful. Iran is rated as the fourteenth most powerful military with Israel two spaces behind at sixteenth. Of course, Russia is rates second, China third and the United States was first, of course. The pivotal individual in this entire imbroglio is the Iranian Supreme Leader and those with influence in his decision-making processes. This includes the Council of Experts, a group of senior Imams, Ayatollahs, who are responsible for appointing Supreme Leaders and advising them, the Iranian President and their Parliament, though the elected individuals have far less input than the Ayatollahs as they are merely elected by the people, even though the Assembly of Experts also decide who is permitted to run for office. In the end, it will be the top Ayatollahs who will be more likely to simply agree with whatever the Supreme Leader decides. The problem is he is the one who likely feels he has been insulted directly by President Trump. There may be an attack upon the United States naval forces which will lead to a serious conflagration which we can only hope never does include nuclear weapons, no matter whose weapons they may be. In the end, it will be what Iran desires, peace or war.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 8, 2019

The Score is not Over as of Yet

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:57 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Bibi Netanyahu proudly announced that a ceasefire has been attained from the leadership of Hamas through the efforts of Egypt. What number ceasefire is this, ten, fifty, a thousand, is anybody counting or does anybody really care? We will be celebrating those who have fallen in the terror war which this year will include four additional souls who were sacrificed for peace. This was the phrase which Israelis heard constantly during the Oslo Accords as the Labor government labeled those killed by Palestinian Arab terrorism as those sacrificed for peace. They were the casualties of the peace process. This last round Hamas fired over six-hundred rockets into Israel and Israel responded with the usual, the Israeli Air Force carefully bombed the same series of empty buildings, yes, empty buildings. Hamas, or Islamic Jihad or both, fired a series of heavy bombardment on Ashdod testing the efficiency of the Israeli Iron Dome Systems and they learned that these systems have limits, even the vaunted Iron Dome, and a percentage of rockets pierced the Iron Dome shield. The terrorist army of Gaza (Hamas and Islamic Jihad plus whoever else is backing them as there could even be some IRGC forces from Iran behind some of these attacks) now knows that they can overload their attack and get a small percentage of rockets past two or three Iron Dome batteries. This tells them just a small amount as to how three or four systems would protect say Tel Aviv, as some have allowed their lips to part and their tongues to utter the reality we all knew, that rockets on Tel Aviv is a red line which if crossed will bring the full weight of the IDF into action. But such makes the people of Sderot, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Be’er Sheva and all of southern Israel feel as if they are not worthy of protection as those in the wealthiest of cities in Israel. They question whether it is because Tel Aviv is where many of the “heavy-hitters” and the “movers and shakers” all reside within the Tel Aviv metropolitan areas, so is this what is required to be worth actually acting against rockets being fired twenty-four hours a day throughout the weekend but if they do not target Tel Aviv then the terrorists are mostly safe? The people of Israel, outside of Tel Aviv (and a fair number within Tel Aviv as they know they will reap the knowledge of how to beat Iron Dome when their time comes) are reaching a point which can only be described as ugly. The people living under these constant barrages are well beyond scorching angry. The kind of anger and feeling of hopelessness as the government appears to be failing them is best represented by one phrase from the movie Network, “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.” Even if you never saw the move, never heard of the movie, this scene has taken on a life of its own and when people approach this state, then governments know they can no longer ignore the people, ignore the problems, ignore the situation which is causing the rising discontent and they start to consider actually doing something more forceful and directly targeting a solution.

 

 

But Israel just had an election and chose to continue with Bibi Netanyahu as our Prime Minister despite having other options. We are not talking about the Blue-White Party with its list of Generals from the IDF or the fact that they had three former Chiefs of Staff on their list. These three former Chiefs of Staff are partly responsible for the situation we face as they were instrumental in the decision-making process. These were the same Generals who tout that if Israel would just give the Palestinian Arabs their state, then everything would be rosy and it would shower lemon drops with the sunshine. They were not the solution needed but the political situation in Israel is a sticky problem. As long as the threats remain as they are, and as long as there does not arise a leader who generates the confidence and resolve to address these problems and end the suffering of the Palestinian Arabs as well as the Israelis under rocket fire, then Bibi Netanyahu knows that he is all but guaranteed to remain as Prime Minister for as long as he desires to lead the Likud Party. But there will come a day, hopefully not too far distant, where such a person will rise and challenge Bibi from the right rather than trying to best him from the left. The person we believe who could fill this bill is a man who is soft spoken but firm and strong. One who can excite people through his sincerity and the fact that he means exactly what he says and says what he means. A man of his word with a pedigree which would make for a challenger to Bibi who may arise sooner rather than later.

 

One person many have thought could be that man is a woman, Ayelet Shaked. She had an understanding, or at least this was what people believed, that she would not upstage Naftali Bennett. Now that Bibi targeted their New Right Party a couple of days before the election when he announced his intent to extend Israeli civil law to the settlements in the Shomron, the main point which Bennett and Shaked had been running their campaign around; they fell below threshold while Bibi gained as much as five additional mandates as he also took from the Combined Right led by our party, Jewish Home, though we still passed threshold. Bibi and Bennett have a history which may have fueled Bibi targeting Bennett’s Party which he formed when he all but destroyed Jewish Home the day after elections were called and he left the party taking the number two and number four people from what was our present Knesset list along with his position as chairman of the party. Jewish Home was leaderless and the New Right took half of our Knesset list as they ran out the door leaving destruction in their wake, but we rose in a stronger position in our belief. We weathered the storm and, in the end, may have found just what Israel needs and a potential answer to who could possibly replace Bibi and instill the faith of the people of Israel to trust a new leader with a new direction and new answers to the most vexing of the problems Israel faces.

 

Think of a man who spent their early years in the IDF as a combat helicopter pilot. Helicopters are not the easiest of vehicles to master, ask any pilot, fixed wing or rotary wing. He retired as a Brigadier General and was the Chief Rabbi for the IDF. That right there should answer any questions as to whether you can trust what this man says. On the other side, he understands combat and the risks and would not risk the precious lives of our IDF soldiers in any empty actions for political gain. He has a soft demeanor but commands respect and when he speaks, it is with a quiet strength which makes his words heavy with the force of truth behind them. The Israelis may get their first glimpse as the coalition is cobbled together. This person has already faced a form of challenge to his leadership within our ticket which was a group of parties with one led by a man with great drive and energy who thought he could force his way to unseat the chosen leader. This likely got him a nice quiet, calm, patient and even understanding reading of the riot act and he then settled down knowing he was not to try such again. There were no theatrics, no shouting, nothing that even the news reporters could discern which might have made for a tasty morsel in their articles. Things simply were straightened out and the rules cemented. Now comes the bigger game, the coalition and what price for the support of our group. This will be interesting as this person we have been describing has made it perfectly clear, annexation of Area C of the Shomron will be required to be largely annexed such that all the towns, cities, neighborhoods and industrial zones will be annexed and be placed under civil law and removed from military rule. This and the other lesser points will make for an interesting measure of who is the more forceful and stronger man between Bibi Netanyahu and Rafi Peretz.

 

Rafi Peretz had to be convinced to take the helm of the party as he had little if any desire for entering politics. That might make one believe that this would make him less likely to be anything other than the man filling in for the time being. General Peretz is not the kind of person who would take such a position with such an attitude. No, he was convinced that the Jewish Home Party required a person of his stature and caliber in order to make the Party credible again. A political party does not lose its leader and the next in line along with yet another critical member and just shake it off and continue on. When you are not one of the main parties in the polls, early ones had Jewish Home with zero mandates and we ended up with four or five depending one how one places the division between the three parties which made up the Combined Right group. Rafi Peretz was quoted speaking with Arutz Sheva soon after the Monday ceasefire took effect stating, “This battle needs to result in one thing: a clear sense of deterrence – but we didn’t not achieve that. We need to continue work to prevent attacks, continue to hit critical targets which we have the opportunity to strike at. We can’t stop this [campaign].” His words appear measured and not the words of a man satisfied with the current results. The one good thing about this ceasefire is that it was reached pretty much all on Bibi Netanyahu’s head as there is no real government seated currently. In the current Security Cabinet, you have people who will not even be in the next Knesset and missing some of the people who will be heads of departments and included in the Security Cabinet such as Rafi Peretz. We suspect that should there be another string of attacks from Gaza which result in as unsatisfactory an end as occurred this time, the coalition will be the cost as it is highly probable that Rabbi Rafi Peretz would pull our group from the coalition which will probably be sufficient to bring new elections. That is unless Bibi has something entirely different in mind.

 

Jewish Home Leader Rafi Peretz

Jewish Home Leader Rafi Peretz

 

We have covered the possibility for Bibi Netanyahu to find a peace through the recognizing of Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority as the core for forming Palestine in our article “Expectations of Next Netanyahu Government.” This scenario would still exist but would also spell the termination of Bibi Netanyahu politically and clear the way for new leadership in the Likud and a shaking up of the right with unknowable results. The Likud would be divided by such a move as described there which would make it possible for one of the other right-wing parties to take in numerous disgruntled and angry former Likud members. But even without Bibi having a complete meltdown, there will come a period which will forever be known as the post-Bibi era. When that era arrives, we would be proud and pleased for the next Prime Minister after Bibi to be Rafi Peretz, but the smart money is split between Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked. Nobody has counted them as out, simply as down but the count has not reached ten. It will be interesting to see what they do, whether they stay together or split and exactly what Bennett will do to resurrect his party the New Right. We can guarantee one thing; Bennett will not pin his campaign on any single item but will have at least three points upon which he will base his hoped-for return. Fortunately, for the foreseeable future, Jewish Home and the Combined Right will be led by Rafi Peretz and this will be interesting to watch. Bibi may be the consummate political operative, Rafi Peretz was of command rank, well educated, capable as a helicopter pilot, the Chief Rabbi of the IDF and best of all, was not overly interested in entering politics and did so for the good of Israel, and it may be for that good which will end up propelling him into becoming Prime Minister. In the meantime, Rafi Peretz will pressure Bibi from the right and perhaps cause him to be more proactive in responding to provocations by Hamas, Islamic Jihad and whatever other terror group attacks Israeli citizens in any manner.

 

And that brings us back to the current imbroglio with Hamas. The way this ceasefire was reached remains murky and the reason behind making such a hasty arrangement could have everything to do with the Eurovision Song Contest which is being held in Tel Aviv. They should have insisted on holding it in Jerusalem as Hamas has not proven they can reach Jerusalem while we know they can reach Tel Aviv. Bibi was probably under quite a great deal of pressure to get things settled and settled immediately no matter the cost. This is not the way to be able to negotiate when your opposites know that you are desperate for the quiet which they control. What is the main problem is that Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not exactly known for keeping their word or observing ceasefires. This recent weekend of rockets, over six-hundred at last count we saw, occurred during a ceasefire but somebody thought it might be fun to set off a barrage of rockets and once it started, well, it got out of hand. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are both aware that the reprisals from Israel largely strike the same targets over and over of which one is the Hamas training field which resembles a soccer pitch which bombing does little to destroy such a facility. Furthermore, much of Hamas’s and Islamic Jihad’s machine shops which make the rocket motors and bodies, chemical explosive production and other assets are buried deep underground and likely beneath hospitals, schools, mosques and other buildings which Israel is reluctant in striking as they would prove to be propaganda and news nightmares. Imagine the news wire streaming reports from Gaza that Israel bombed a Mosque, school, nursery or any other such sensitive target. No matter how much proof Israel could produce subsequent to such news that there existed a chemical shop making rocket warheads and fuels or a machine shop underneath making the rocket components or other military type targets placed underneath the sensitive structure, the European Union, United Nations, numerous United Nations Agencies, dozens if not hundreds of NGO’s would be screaming and headlines would persist for weeks and it would be a black eye for Israel as the world does not care about Israel’s right to defend itself, the majority of the world simply desires Israel to be erased and will do everything possible to assist in her demise. There is only one question which the world need worry over, will the Eurovision Song Contest continue through to its conclusion without a hitch or will it prove too wonderful a target for Islamic terrorist entities to resist. The whole idea of a singing contest is, to these supposed purists, completely anti-Islamic and sacrilegious. It would almost be a holy imperative for them to strike at the Eurovision Song Contest. This ceasefire which was so hastily cobbled together almost out of the blue may dissolve just as quickly and prove to have been a ruse to try and give Israel the idea that a respite was coming where there would be no rockets for quite some time. It seems we are always reaching ceasefires we hope are going to give us a respite and before we turn around, we hear the sirens, or reports of sirens depending on location, and people are sleeping with their children nestled around them in bomb-shelters. This is something which we are fairly sure that Rafi Peretz will insist that more definitive actions be taken should such occur while he is in the coalition.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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