Beyond the Cusp

July 29, 2014

Ceasefire or Cease Sanity?

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United States President Obama had a long conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu this past Sunday insisting that an immediate ceasefire for humanitarian reasons was absolutely necessary. The United States President repeated his standard bromides denouncing Hamas firing rockets from amongst the Palestinian civilian structures and their endangering both their own population while attacking Israeli civilians; also, the President expressed extreme consternation over the excessive numbers of Gazans who have died or been injured resultant to the border conflict. President Obama further claimed he fully supported the Egyptian proposed terms for a ceasefire which calls for the reinstatement of the conditions as established in the ceasefire established to curtail the 2012 Hamas-Israeli conflict. If this was what was actually being proposed on the ground in the Middle East there might be progress providing that Hamas could be pressured to accept this offer, the same offer they have unilaterally and completely refused claiming that their demands must be agreed to by Israel for them to accept any ceasefire. The Hamas demands are being fully supported and backed politically by Iran, Qatar and Turkey. While from President Obama’s conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu would imply that the United States is not backing the Hamas demands as a precondition for any ceasefire; unfortunately, United States Secretary of State Kerry is not on the same page nor singing a similar tune as was President Obama. Secretary Kerry is pressing for Israel to agree and sign onto the Qatari proposed ceasefire and its specific requirements to be imposed on Israel which parallel the Hamas demands. This proposed ceasefire conditions have been rejected initially by Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel while being considered viable by Hamas, Qatar, Iran and Turkey. Where there has yet to be a full disclosure over the exact demands of the Qatari ceasefire initiative, it is rumored to contain elements which would require relief from the Israeli naval blockade and the permanent opening of the Rafah Border Crossing between Egypt and Gaza. Such an agreement would allow the terrorist groups within Gaza, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda in Gaza, recently established ISIS affiliate and other lesser terror aligned entities to import arms of any variety as long as they could afford them or somebody was willing to arm them as a sign of support. This begs the question as to whether Secretary Kerry and President Obama have briefed each other and are working in concert or is one of them completely out of the loop on what the other is pursuing.

There is another explanation which is even more sinister and unfortunately has evidence to back up the theory that namely President Obama was playing good cop to Secretary Kerry’s bad cop and that behind the scenes the two are working together to force the Qatari pro-Hamas conditions for a ceasefire on Israel and Egypt with the support of Qatar and Turkey. While Qatar is known to be a major financial backer of Hamas, one might wonder why Turkey would be supportive of Hamas being a member of NATO which lists Hamas as a terror organization. The reasons behind Turkey supporting the strengthening of Hamas is due to their desire to return the Muslim Brotherhood to power with President Morsi returned to his post which he lost when the military conducted a coup presumably in response to popular demands from the people. Turkey also would desire to have the coalition headed by the Freedom and Justice Party returned to the Egyptian parliament. Since Hamas is the Muslim Brotherhood arm in the struggle against Israel and has previously assisted Muslim Brotherhood and other Sunni Islamists in their attempts at insurrection in Egypt, it will take great efforts or extensive bribes to turn Egypt to their views. Further, it might be suspected that another reason Qatar would desire an open port to receive goods free from any interference by Israel or Egypt has something to do with their recent near eleven-billion-dollar weapons purchase from the United States which included among other items Patriot missile batteries, Javelin anti-tank defense systems and Apache attack helicopters with hopes of also signing a jet fighter contract in the near future. The reasoning explaining this sale was in order to allow the small nation to resist any threats emanating from across the Gulf from Iran. Some might have doubts of any threat condition between Iran and Qatar as Qatar has been suspected of aiding Iran find paths around the nuclear sanctions as well as having held meetings with Iran and Russia to discuss situations and future relations in the heart of the Middle East all seemingly signifying cooperation to be far more likely than any threat situations. That begs exactly why Qatar would require eleven-billion-dollars of top-line military systems. Perhaps they plan on placing them on display in a similar manner that Steve McQueen used to display his car and motorcycle collection. There is no chance they might have much of these weapons finding their way to Gaza, not a chance as I am sure they gave President Obama assurances against such an eventuality.

A final note is that it appears that there has been pressure applied on Egypt to either alter their ceasefire stipulations to more closely match the Qatari offer or simply accept all of the Qatari stipulations and back them thereby applying additional pressures on Israel. Additionally, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has announced his participation for talks in Cairo where the others invited are Hamas and Islamic Jihad representatives who are scheduled to meet with Egyptian officials in order to examine how the Hamas demands as well as any additional demands from the Palestinian Authority, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and it would not be beyond belief for them to include the Popular Resistance Committees and who knows who else. These discussions are not going to include Israel but Israel will be pressured by a less than sympathetic world which is far more antagonistic than benevolent towards Israel to agree to accept whatever is hammered out no matter the consequences. Will this bring pressure from the Security Council of the United Nations which already issued a Chapter VI resolution for an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas? The next resolution would likely be a Chapter VII demand for Israel to accept the given ceasefire and a Chapter VII resolution is enforceable by military force. Will this be when the world turns against Israel?


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