Beyond the Cusp

December 27, 2018

Israeli Future a Look Thirty Years Hence

 

Israel is a nation at the leading edge of a swell which will crest in about twenty to thirty years and may simply continue to grow for the foreseeable future. Currently, Israel has a narrow majority of Zionist, nationalist Jews of which the majority is religious, some more and some less, but all go to Synagogue on Shabbat and observe the Day of Rest and many go to daily morning service if not evening as well. The difference is one of the most basic of statistics, birth rates. The liberal left is having less numbers of children the further left you reach in the political spectrum. Their reproductive rates have been estimated to fall between one and a half to as many as two children per child-bearing aged women where two and a quarter is the minimum required to replace their population. The religious Zionists are having an average of between four to six children per married women, well above replacement level. There are some communities within this community where nine or more children are the norm. It does not take a mathematical wizard to see where the Israeli people are heading amongst the Jewish populations. Now for the reality which nobody wants the world to know. The Muslim, mostly Arab, population has had a declining reproductive rate with it currently between three and three and a half children per married woman. There have been some who have statistically measured the demographics which see that Israel will soon have a solid and unchallengeable three-quarters majority within Israel. The only challenge is the Palestinian Arab populations in the Shomron and Gaza. As both of these populations are outside the Israeli population and have their own governance, whether it is Hamas or the Palestinian Authority both being basic dictatorships, they will not become Israelis beyond those in Eastern Jerusalem. These Arabs have been given provisional citizenship which permits them to vote in Jerusalem and neighborhood elections but they are not permitted to vote in national elections thus far. The remainder of the Palestinian Arabs of the Palestinian Authority will, at best, receive resident alien status while being granted citizenship in whatever Arab nation is willing to grant them such status or they will remain under their present governance while their region will become part of Israel with them in a semiautonomous region. Gaza is unlikely to ever be readmitted into Israel without something extremely severe occurring in which most of the population will be sent from Israel as the Gaza population support Hamas and Islamic Jihad by over 80% according to most surveys. This makes this population antagonistic and adversarial to Israel and completely hostile and unacceptable for incorporating into Israeli rule under any circumstance or political scenario.

 

With Israeli population mostly defined as those who already have citizenship and those who may immigrate into Israel from abroad. Much of the Jewish population outside of Israel is highly unlikely to make Aliyah and come home to Israel. Israel has placed impediments against illegal immigration or any influx of refugees from Syria or the other disasters referred to as nations currently in the Middle East and North Africa, such as are streaming into Europe. There are some advantages to having adversarial nations on every border as it forces one to have the IDF guarding every border. The one border which had proven problematic was the long border along the Sinai Peninsula and the Israeli Negev Desert. Israel suffered such an influx from several African nations which Israel has been unable to deport thanks to threats from the European Union and its several nations, the United Nations and their interference forcing any nation willing to take these illegal immigrants through threats to cancel their agreements with Israel. This minority population will eventually leave by one means or another. Since their influx, Israel has, wait for it, built, yes, you know what is coming, a border wall which cut the numbers significantly. Israel then made this border wall even higher and it cut the numbers to zero. That problem addressed, Israel is in control of their borders and thus the population.

 

Stretch of the Israel-Egypt Border Fence

Stretch of the Israel-Egypt Border Fence

 

There is a currently sizable sector of the religious community which is largely not Zionist in their beliefs believing that the Messiach is necessary to form the final Jewish state, the Haredi. They are the current king-makers as their numbers of ministers, as they vote pretty much as a block though that is slowly crumbling at the edges, so to speak, but they still are often the deciding block which decides which party is capable of making a majority coalition. Their population numbers is also increasing due to their high birth rate but their percentage is still not increasing as the religious Zionist percentage is increasing even faster. The mathematical projections show the religious Zionists allied with the nationalist conservatives will have a near majority needing less numbers, if any, of other smaller interest-specific parties such as the Haredi Parties, there are two, or the Yisrael Beiteinu Party which represents largely Russian Jews but has been losing mandates in recent elections. In time, providing the religious Zionist groups can solidify putting aside their often-petty differences and some based on a small group of larger than life egos, then such a party will soon be able to replace the Likud as the largest party. Polls taken recently show that the left leaning parties, unless they receive boosts from retired generals and former Mossad commanders which they often woo immediately before election with promises of high positions in their list for Knesset Ministers. Without such a boost, the Zionist Union is perched to lose a number, potentially significant number, of mandates in the upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the religious Zionist Parties appear to be ready for gains, as does Likud. There is one thing which we must tell about Israeli elections and politics, it is extremely energetic which makes a poll taken in the morning out of touch by late afternoon, not to mention the change which can take place in a few days or a week. There is one item for which we need to thank President Trump, the media has become far more suspect and their slant is now readily identifiable by the majority of the population. This has been evidenced by serious changes in subscription rates within Israel.

 

But we are attempting to predict the future in twenty to thirty years. Then Israel will be even more Jewish than she is today. Israel will be more conservative, more religious, more Zionist, more nationalist and still a technological marvel as Israel will continue to be the start-up nation. It will still, unfortunately, be facing the same problems with the threats from the Islamic and Arab world not to mention that there will be opposition to the fact that Israel is such a success and Jewish being a bother to many in Europe plus the world will also have changed. The direction of many of the problems and the future of the world’s nations is in many cases problematic and in so many others in flux. The United States is in the center of a political civil war being fought largely on social media and the ballot box. One can only pray that the American civil war remains as civil as it currently exists and not turn to violence or one side winning an election and then altering the laws of governance permanently altering the future of the nation. In Europe, they are being tested by the large influx, much larger than expected, of people from the Islamic world. This is causing a culture clash of monstrous proportions exampled by the Ramadan with Muslims attacking cars in Birmingham, England early last June (video below). These confrontations as well as the tax riots in Paris and across France are all signs that within Europe the civilization is tearing itself apart. They make future predictions about Europe, especially Western Europe, far more problematic than here in Israel. The United States will be more readily predicted by the 2024 elections completely independent of whether or not President Trump is reelected as whomever the Democrats might run against him would likely not even remain in the Democrat Party by 2024 as that party is in flux apparently moving well to the left. The world is a very unpredictable and vacillating place where the only thing which is constant is change, a saying which has numerous variations and an equal number of claims of authorship.

 

 

Well, there really is not much to add beyond that the future does appear bright for Israel. The one item which is an unknown will be the numbers of Jews making Aliyah and coming home to Eretz Yisroel. That is a pleasant variable to have to be the main variable for the future. We realize that many of those Jews will be more liberal than the direction which Israel is moving. These Jews will also very possibly have decided to return home because of the changing situations in the world where anti-Semitism is on the rise and in all too many instances taking on some very violent confrontations. This is even occurring in some of the neighborhoods in and around New York City, even in some which are major Jewish areas. This has been a greater difficulty for the Jews in Europe where in France the numbers leaving for other shores has been increasing every year for the last decade. Numbers of Jews have stated their intent to depart Britain should the Labor Party place Jeremy Corbyn into the Prime Minister’s 10 Downing Street address. The future for Jews living outside of Israel is another problematic situation which is in flux and too often in a very wrong direction. Such experiences will have definitive effects upon those who are victimized and their congregations and neighborhoods. That will also have an influence on their political outlook upon arriving in Israel. They will all be welcomed and Israel will try to accommodate them as quickly and comfortably as possible. This too could lead to a significant increase in the Jewish population of Israel as not even half of the world’s Jewish population resides in Israel. There are approximately fourteen and two-thirds million Jews in the world and between six and a half and seven million in Israel making it 44.5% of the world’s Jews currently residing in Israel. The best projections claim that in thirty years the number of Jews making Aliyah will provide Israel with a twenty to thirty percent increase in the Jewish population, which is something we will have to wait and see as it occurs. Outside and unpredictable events and conditions will weigh heavily on what the actual numbers will become. But the predictions we have made will likely stand with whatever influx should occur. Coming to Israel can have a profound effect on many people as it did myself, and I pray it was for the better.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Blog at WordPress.com.