Beyond the Cusp

February 22, 2015

Iran, ISIS, and United Opposition to Israel

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What has been missing from most analysts’ Middle East reports is that between ISIS and Iran we have, to use a term popular in modern analysis, a perfect storm. Graeme Wood reported on interviews with supporters of ISIS and what was revealed completely contradicted the approach President Obama has taken defining the number one problem driving support for ISIS to be a lack of economic opportunities. What was revealed instead is that they believe they are called by God to create a Caliphate that will ultimately lead to the apocalypse. Essentially, they are a death cult centered around their religion. They stressed their devout and all-encompassing belief that they are following the word of Allah and completing the will of Allah in order to bring on the Islamic version of the End of Days, a scenario very different and in very spectacular ways the opposite of the Christian belief in the End of Days. This is the Sunni Muslim impetus in our time right now to bring a world-wide apocalypse as quickly and completely as they are able and the driving minds behind ISIS are not simpletons but driven people who have displayed great command of technology and have developed, as noted by experts the world over, a highly technical video campaign using some of the latest effects and professional stylistic designs in their video campaign. President Obama and many others have sold the leadership of ISIS short and have grossly underestimated their capabilities.

 

With Iran we have a more well-known entity as we have been able to observe them since their 1979 rise to power in Iran, a rise to power greatly aided by then President Carter who stated that the Ayatollah Sayyid Ruhollah Musavi Khomeini (Farsi: روح الله موسوی خمینی) was a man of the cloth and a decent man with whom the United States could work. President Carter basically equated a devout Shiite Muslim with Christianity and completely ignored the belief that Islam supersessionism means that Islam has replaced both Christianity, which Muslims accept was the supersessionism of Judaism, and as well Judaism and is the final revelation which disallows for any future revelation to be valid. There is a singular problem with both forms of supersessionism that is shared, the reestablishment of the Jewish state of Israel which both Christian and Islamic supersessionism claims is not possible as the Jews have been forsaken and cursed to travel the face of the earth nationless as there no longer exists the Covenant between G0d and Abraham as that Covenant was replaced by the Covenant with Jesus which has in turn according to Islam, was replaced by the Covenant with Mohammad according to each faith. Add to this the Iranian belief in the Twelfth Imam and you have another apocalyptical religious force in Iran.

 

Basically the world is facing two complimentary apocalyptical religious forces both competing for hegemonic preeminence in the Middle East and both having a central desire to extinguish the Jewish state of Israel both believing it to be an abomination to Allah. This comes at a time when the United States has taken a six year hiatus from participating constructively on the world’s stage. But even in remission, the United States is playing a central role in the form of an acquiescing power which will facilitate the nuclearization of Iran. The importance of this action must not be lost in our consideration of the immediate future. The most recent report from the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) paints a very bleak picture and displays the fact that the Western nations, the United Nations and much of the Middle East have at best an extremely opaque and blurred superficial knowledge about the state of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. Their report told more about the obscuration by Iran than it did report on the actual existence of the Iranian program. A basic summary of the report would be to say that the world, and especially the Western nations, has almost no knowledge or understanding of the current abilities, size, scope or technological refinement of the Iranian nuclear weapons program.

 

The last glimpse the world had was almost eighteen months ago and then we were able to get an indication that the Iranians had achieved an advanced centrifuge which was six times as efficient as their previous model and they were very close to perfecting its use. Since then there has been rumors, rumors such that they carried some degree of weight and validity, that the Iranians had made another quantum leap in centrifuge development and designed an even faster and more capable centrifuge design and were in the process of installing these latest designs into their nuclear processing of uranium. The problem is that nowhere in the negotiations or in any IAEA report is there a sign of these centrifuges being installed. This begs a question; where are these latest and greatest centrifuges which we should have noted being installed and if we are unaware of their installation, then where is the uranium refinement being carried out with these newest centrifuges? This is a definitive indication that Iran has developed a secret nuclear enrichment system of installations and who knows what further developments are being carried out in this secretive parallel program. One matter which must be kept foremost in our minds is that the Western nations and the rest of the world have little if any knowledge of the amount of uranium Iran may be mining out of their own uranium mines and whether they have also perfected in the gasification of the uranium to uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6) which is an essential development if Iran is to operate a secretive parallel nuclear program which could only be intended for weapons production. Iran might also be producing fuel rods for their Heavy-water reactor by refining uranium by smelting it into purified UO2 which could be used in the Arak reactor to produce plutonium. All of this is currently well beyond anything of which the IAEA or the Western intelligence agencies appear to have even a hint of understanding. Perhaps Iran really does not care about the negotiations or reaching any deal as their program is far beyond the understood level assumed in the P5+1 negotiations with Iran.

 

Western intelligence has decided that the Iranian nuclear program has not proceeded to develop new and more advanced facilities without reporting of their existence, much as the development of a nuclear trigger at the Parchin Military Complex was completed and all traces including the suspected buildings were completely destroyed and the area cleansed such that any inspection would be hard pressed to find any evidence should they actually gain admission to the area for an inspection. This research was all but completed before the activity at Parchin Military Complex had even been detected and suspicions aroused. Additionally, it was apparent that the actual announcement and the beginning of negotiation with Iran over their nuclear program by the Europeans, which predated the United States entry to the scene, was initiated revealing a complex and expansive nuclear program already in use. It was determined that Iran had been working on enrichment of uranium for very likely at least a decade before being discovered. This lack of reliable intelligence and the ability of the Iranians to conceal their actions from detection bode poorly for any reliable detection of new facilities being constructed. The last installation detected was the refining facility at Fordow, near the city of Qom, in 2012 which was only revealed after it had initiated refinement of uranium. The complex was still being completed but little was known about its level of development as it was constructed underground and beneath a mountain making detection more difficult. The level of complexity and capabilities of the Iranian program most definitely permits the assumption that Iran is capable of constructing a secretive base which is only made a higher probability due to the existence of natural caves which would remove much of the heavy work of building an underground complex within a mountain.

 

Simple truth is there is a potential for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to a joint session of the United States Congress releasing information which will completely destroy any hope of a nuclear deal with Iran short of surrendering to the fact that Iran is, if not already the in the near future, capable of producing nuclear weapons and there is little which can be accomplished through the P5+1 negotiations as Iran has successfully deceived their adversaries lulling them into a false sense of security believing they had a proper assessment of the scope of the Iranian nuclear weapons program. This is the fear which has the White House in a panic. The fact that President Obama may be revealed to know that the negotiations have all been a ruse to stall any actions by the Western nations or Israel to cripple the Iranian nuclear sites with a military strike. The complete single-mindedness of the efforts by President Obama to find a peaceful way of preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear state has been proven by the leaking vital information at the most crucial point of Israeli plans on at least three occasions which completely blew up destroying each attempt by Israel to use military force to destroy as much of the Iranian nuclear sites as they were able. This devious prevention by the White House of any and all efforts by Israel to address the nuclear weapons development sites by use of military force was in part just a further act by President Obama insisting that he can by the power of his voice, the influence of his words, the imposing of his will and the full effect of his karma can alter the world to his designs thus being a world molding power by his will alone. This faulty perception is not challenged by any advisors who remain in the White House and is in fact reinforced by sycophantic devotees surrounding the President. The proof of this has been the near constant parade of Secretaries of Defense where the people in that position receiving briefings which explain the realities including on Iran has frightened them each and every one that they attempted to shake President Obama’s faith in his ego being undeniable on the world stage and his ability by his presence to change realities. As intelligence released to Congress is mostly under the influence, or even control, by the White House, it is possible that the Congress has been denied much of the truth which is unflattering to the President. The fact that President Obama has no way of keeping the truths from Prime Minister Netanyahu and that the Israeli leader is about to upset the President’s apple cart and reveal the core problem which Iran truly poses is something the Ego in the White House cannot countenance as the President will be revealed to not have the fine robes of the Emperor and that the reality is that he is actually standing naked once robbed of his control of information.

 

That leads to how does a nuclear Iran change things and how does ISIS fit into these scenarios. The current understanding is that Iran is fighting against ISIS and is supporting their obedient puppet governments in Iraq, Syria and even Lebanon. Iran is about control, complete control. They see Saudi Arabia and its GCC, Egypt with President Sisi and his anti-terror programs, the United States simply due to its capabilities despite their being muted by the great President in the White House and please ignore the little man behind the curtain scared of being revealed for a fool, and of course Israel as the current power in the Middle East. Iran will still manage to gain the United States President’s accommodations as long as they make their argument appear to be aimed solely at Israel, as sacrifice the White House has already signaled they are more than willing to make. What is being assumed is that Iran would never ally with ISIS because one is Shiite and the other is Sunni and nary the twain shall meet. That assumption is dead wrong as can be proven by Iran and their partnership which has been reestablished with Hamas, a perfect definition of ISIS Lite. Should ISIS further establish their nascent initiatives in Gaza, Judea and Samaria and become preeminent replacing the Palestinian Authority and subsuming Hamas, or at least those of Hamas who are capable of passing their purity test which would still include most of the fighters from both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and potentially others as well, this would make ISIS the terror organization required to attack Israel. The only fly in this ointment is the probability for ISIS to reject any assistance from Iran viewing them as just another enemy and even worse, an apostate enemy. If ISIS instead decided that a temporary alliance with the Devil, Iran, then a bond of mutual objectives may be possible and once these two powers make such an arrangement there may be no preventing the apocalyptical eventuality they both desire. In many ways ISIS would be a better fit with Iran than is Hezballah or Hamas as ISIS shares the view of forcing the End Times through the creation of an apocalyptical war encompassing the entirety of the planet. Facing a nuclear armed Iran willing to share such devices for the obliteration of targets of common hatreds would be the stuff whose aftermath may look very much like many of those post apocalypse B-movies we have seen on late night television.

 

This is why the speech by Prime Minister Netanyahu before the joint session of Congress and his likely follow-up speech at the AIPAC Convention will be of unprecedented importance. One might equate the potential of these two speeches to the speeches given by Winston Churchill at the onset of World War II. What Prime Minister Netanyahu must avoid is belittling President Obama or making any claims that the President has been played for a fool by Iran. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu must be seen to have constantly praised President Obama while offering him a new approach which will be more in-tune with the current reality and move him tactfully away from the disastrous path he currently walks. This is not the time to air grievances as we all also need the cooperation of President Obama and for him to dedicate at least the airpower and other capabilities of the United States. American boots on the ground can and should be avoided; at least initially as things will need to be assessed as everything develops. The President should be made to forfeit any plans he may be couching for a linking and exchange of ambassadors and opening of embassies with Iran and instead doing what must be done to prevent Iran from attaining their goals. Then the President must understand the level and extent of a threat ISIS has begun to assume and how they are gaining allies. The Congress will also need to understand the urgencies currently loose in the world and free to undermine all that allows for cooperative relations. The world is at the most definitive crossroads that it has ever faced. The price for making the wrong turn at this and the next three or four crossroads, forks in the road, will be the extinction of man as a technological and developing race into simply another steak in the food chain. Yes, it all really is that serious, and dire too. The blinders must come off and the path towards the preservation of our technological way of life through the wise applications of force now rather than waiting for the forces against modernity to throw the first volley, so to speak. Now, let each of us pray, concentrate, or give whatever form of supplication your beliefs may require in times that will test our souls, our civilizations, our freedoms, our development, our integrity as a human being who does have love for his brothers and sisters and knows forgiveness is not always the correct path, sometimes actions are required if we are to correct certain wrongs which plague our world and threaten us and all we hold dear.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

May 17, 2012

How Long Before Announced Grand Deal Over Iranian Nuclear Program?

Don’t look to Western Media for any truthful assessments of the nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 (Permanent Five Security Council Members* plus Germany) and Iran. The Western Media has been politely and strictly following the European message which has been set by the European Union Foreign Minister Lady Catherine Ashton. Ms. Ashton is enamored of the Iranian nuclear chief negotiator and is sure that an amicable agreement should be easily within reach at the next scheduled negotiation set to take place in Baghdad next week. Meanwhile, the Iranians are touting their great success in putting off any serious concessions through deceitful negotiating and now are feeling assured that the Europeans are ready and willing to concede to Iranian right to continue uranium enrichment with likely advised limitations of how high Iran should be allowed to attain. Add to this that the Europeans have related that they are only adopting the same policies that President Obama’s Administration has intimated that they may be willing to accept if full inspections are agreed to be implemented. Well, this should really work out well considering the Iranian record on accommodating full inspections, or even partial inspections, which they have previously agreed to allow. Where the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had claimed Iranian cooperation much of the time back when it was under the leadership of Mohamed ElBaradei, since he was replaced as Director General by Yukiya Amano the truth has proven to be less agreeable. As a small matter, lately the reports submitted by the IAEA under Yukiya Amano has strongly insinuated that there is much evidence to prove that the Iranian nuclear program has a large and suspicious militarily controlled component which has been kept hidden from inspectors.

Between President Obama’s seeming desire to find something which can be touted as progress and attaining some agreement which allows closure before the election and the European desire to relieve the sanctions in order to return to business as usual including lower their fuel costs with the return of Iranian oil to the market, reaching any agreement which can be spun as having gained guarantees for inspections and the peaceful intent of the Iranian nuclear program has become more important than actually ending any chance of Iran attaining nuclear weapons status. Iranian leadership has sensed the overt need by their negotiating partners for any semblance of agreement leading to closure; they are acting the part of a genuine, honest partner also willing to guarantee the lack of any Iranian military aims along with a willingness to submit to completely inclusive inspections of their entire nuclear sites. The fact that Iran has been claiming this exact position all along does not seem to matter. The claim by the P5+1 that they have made new and real progress is as empty and false as their concern whether Iran turns into a nuclear power. Such dishonest and insincere dealings with a potential threat approaching what we are currently witnessing has not been seen since Neville Chamberlain raised the Munich Accords over his head as he deplaned in London and declared, “My good friends, this is the second time in our history that there has come back from Germany to Downing Street peace with honour. I believe it is peace for our time.”

The meeting next week will possibly be the crucial meeting which will once again allow the negotiators for the Western Powers to return with worthless pieces of paper to hold aloft and again declare to the world that, “After deliberations and with mutual considerations honestly weighing our differences, we have reached that agreement which will preserve our hopes for continued peace in our time.” Then again, if such an agreement is not reached at this next meeting, it will not be blamed on the West for not surrendering sufficiently, it will be another case of Iran dodging an agreement in order to prolong deliberations as they know that as long as they are willing to talk, the fools from the West will be willing to listen almost for an eternity. Iran is fully aware that the Europeans lack the military ability to force anything and President Obama has no stomach and completely lacks the political will to do anything before the November elections. This is why Iran has ramped up their efforts to such a point that they no longer hide their activities. They are aware they have just under six months to reach their point of no return and I believe that they have a better than average chance to complete their program within that time frame. Still, as long as President Obama gets his reelection and the Europeans do not have to take on any additional problems beyond the coming economic collapse, then Iran can do what Iran can manage to accomplish within the limit of time till the American elections. Will Israel wait that long? Can President Obama continue to leak and obstruct Israeli efforts to continue to prevent their taking needful actions? You may as well ask if the world is about to burst into the greatest conflagration in human history as the answer to all of these questions are very closely related.

Beyond the Cusp

* Permanent Five Security Council Members who hold veto power over all actions before that body are China, England, France, Great Britain, Russia, and the United States.

March 30, 2012

How to Make Certain Iran is Negotiating in Good Faith

What is probably a topic discussed even more about Iran’s nuclear program is whether or not Iran is actually serious when they claim to be ready for real and substantial negotiations. If you are of a suspicious nature or politically conservative, you likely call into question whether Iran is earnest in its dealings and offers to negotiate, while those who are overly trusting or of a liberal slant claim that it is necessary to believe the best about the reasons for the Iranian leadership since if they were not sincere then they would not be negotiating. But what would you say if I claimed we could determine exactly and precisely how determined and honest the Iranian leadership is being in their agreeing to restart negotiations. You would probably think I had further lost my often feeble grip on reality. Well, try this one on for size. All that would be necessary is to insist that the negotiations include one more country in the mix, Israel. If the Iranians are honestly interested in cooperation and taking whatever steps are necessary to alleviate the fears and put an end to all suspicions about the real nature of their nuclear program, then including Israel would not be a matter for contentious arguments. But if their sole intent is to negotiate to gain time and their actual aim is to use the nuclear weapons they are suspected of seeking to wipe out Israel, then they would balk at the inclusion of Israel. That one request would provide the answer almost immediately and without wasting time and energies in a fruitless pursuit.

Making this request would serve multiple purposes and Israel could use this as proof of their real preference for a negotiated diplomatic solution over needing to resort to alternate methods of assuring Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. Iran would be foolish to refuse negotiations which included Israel as by doing so they would be validating every Israeli suspicion that Iran was seeking nuclear weapons and intends to utilize them to destroy Israel. Iran accepting Israel taking part in the negotiation would make any Israeli military action more problematic for the Jewish State as long as the negotiations continued to appear to be making progress. The only drawback from enjoining Israel into the negotiations with Iran over their nuclear intents is it would open Iran to need to address any Israeli intelligence which might be presented.

Unfortunately, the most likely reason that the Europeans and the Obama Administration are so willing to join in yet one more time accepting Iran’s offer to restart negotiations is it allows them to kick the can down the road and not need to take any measurable steps to prevent Iran’s continuing to enrich uranium and take other steps towards their final goal. The members of the Five Plus One Group will also use the fact that negotiations are still in progress to firmly announce that this means the diplomatic option is still in progress and thus the time for use of force has yet to be reached. Sometimes I believe that the real intent of the Europeans, the Obama Administration and others supporting endless talks, fully aware the talks are going to go absolutely nowhere, is in order to prevent any other actions from being utilized, especially a military option which they wish to leave on the table never to be picked up and implemented. The aim of this current round of talks is purely for delaying any Israeli actions for as long as possible. Should Israel decide to take action to damage and delay the Iranian enrichment and other nuclear progress while the Five Plus One are in negotiations with Iran, you can bet the United Nations, NATO, and pretty much the whole world would come unglued and denounce the Israeli actions just as was the case when Israel destroyed the Iraqi Osirak Reactor. Israel would have severe sanctions placed upon her and should the entire Muslim world decide to use this opportunity to destroy Israel they very likely could expect assistance from numerous other countries or, at a minimum, absolutely no interference by any other country. Should Iran actually be seeking to reach nuclear weapons capability and succeed in attaining such weaponry, my fear is that they would be inclined to use these weapons with little or no hesitation. Looking back across human history you would be hard pressed to find any weapon developed by humankind that was not used as a primary weapon utilized in the next major conflict. Poison gas was used liberally in World War I and aircraft was a deciding factor in World War II. Will nuclear weapons be the mainstay used when the next conflagration starts? My fear is that is exactly how the next, and very likely last, major war that will end after encompassing the entire world and very likely destroying much of civilization as the first casualty. After that, not much else is going to matter except how to survive while picking up the fragments of what will be left of human existence.

Beyond the Cusp

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