Beyond the Cusp

July 18, 2019

Are Iranian Threats for Real?

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:54 AM
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If the Iranian threats are real, then what should or even can the rest of the world do to prepare? Iran regularly threatens Israel both from Tehran and out of Lebanon using Hezballah and Islamic Jihad and Hamas out of Gaza. Iran also is almost as consistent in threatening the United States from rallies in Tehran. We realize that part of the reason for these rallies where “Death to Israel, death to America” is because it is chanted most often on Friday afternoon after services. The problem is that the Western World measures the Iranian actions according to Western Judeo-Christian ethics expecting that they would be reasonable and negotiations would serve to mitigate any differences. The real problem is that the Western World has given up completely on any single nation conquering the Earth. What the West is missing out on is that the rest of the world has not given up on world conquest. Iran definitely believes that they will conquer the world and force Shia Islam onto the entire population using threats of convert or death. This is an intricate part of the philosophy encased in the Quran where Allah has promised that Islam will rule the entire planet and force the world to convert to Islam. What it does not tell is whether Shia Islam or Sunni Islam will be the version which will conquer the world. But the one thing which matters is that both Sunni and Shia Muslims believe that they are to be the eventual conquerors of Earth.

 

Iran is not the only nation which believes they should conquer the world and place all humankind under their rule. These nations are not democratic nations and instead choose dictatorial leaders who rule absolutely. Hamas’s original charter specified that once they destroyed Israel, they would then take their Islamic revolution to the rest of the world and genocidally murder every Jew everywhere on Earth before forcing all to convert to Islam. The Islamic State at their most powerful also insisted that they were chosen to conquer the world for Islam. The same can be stated about al-Qaeda, Muslim Brotherhood and numerous other Islamic leaders. Then there is the Communist threat which China poses as they intend to spread their form of governance. These are just scratching the surface as who knows where the next threat might arise just as we likely never anticipated ISIS before they exploded on the scene and conquered an area the size of many nations and far larger than Israel. The Western World will be required to wake to the threat which is most ascendant at the current time, and that threat is Iran. Much of the Sunni Islamic world currently appear to be satisfied to currently wait for a future period to rise to take the world. What it would require would be a charismatic leader who could unite the entirety of the Sunni Islam into a single power. Shia Islam has already been set to be unified under Iran as they control Iraqi Shia, Yemenis Shia, Syrian Shia and Lebanese Shia in what many refer to as the Shiite Crescent (see map below). This is the spread of IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and even Iranian regular army. Iran is also utilizing Hezballah in Syria and Yemen as well as threatening Israel from Lebanon.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

Their control of Yemen, which has not been completed, places Iranian aligned forces surrounding Saudi Arabia. Additionally, Iran is in control of the Strait of Hurmuz and with Yemen they control the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. This provides them with the ability to threaten the oil shipments from the Middle East and shut the Suez Canal by closing off the mouth of the Red Sea. Iran has taken strategic points to control which could easily lead to an isolated Europe cut off from Asia, the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Islands. If one were planning to conquer the world using Iran as the central force, this would be the exact tactics which could set up such a threat becoming reality. Iran appears to be waiting for Europe to become overrun by Islamic “refugees” who will refuse to assimilate and instead insist that their religion be granted absolute rule. Then, Iran hopes that if they are able to destroy or conquer Israel or Saudi Arabia that this will influence the majority of Muslims to change from Sunni to Shia Islam. Iran has already laid out their plan for the conquest of Saudi Arabia and the removal of the Saudi Royal Family which the Iranian leaders claim are apostates. Their intent would be to attack the northeastern oil fields which has a majority Shia population while attacking from Yemen taking Mecca and Medina, the Two Holy Cities. This would remove the mystic which the Saudi Royal Family use to remain in power, namely their oil money to bribe the Wahabi clerics and they would lose their title as protectors of the holy cities which would, according to Iran, steal from the Saudi Royals their main pillars of support which could lead to serious opposition from the Saudi population.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

The Iranian leadership will not remain patient forever and eventually they will launch attacks either at Saudi Arabia, Israel or the United States and any combination thereof. But there is one item which the Iranian Mullahs ignore at their own peril, or so we can all pray. The average Persian citizen largely go through the motions of following Shia Islam while many also follow the Persian religion of Zoroastrianism, at least according to Amil Imani in a recent article. This provides an opportunity for the Western World to assist the Iranians who attempted to challenge the Mullahs but were basically sold down the river by President Obama as he desired making an agreement through which he could guarantee that Iran becomes a nuclear armed nation but not until he will have left office. This was the Green Revolution of 2009. Should the Iranian people rise up against their theocratic dictatorial governance where the actual leadership decide who are permitted to run for office making sure that the government will always behave properly and fully support everything the Mullahs, and specifically the Supreme Leader and Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. For those who hold out hope that when a new Supreme Leader is chosen when Ali Khamenei passes will be more moderate, allow us to point out that every politician the West believed were moderates would fall in line behind the Supreme Leaders and enforce his every whim. Ali Khamenei is simply following the exact political plans which originated with the former Supreme Leader Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini who initiated the Iranian revolution of 1979 with the blessings of President Jimmy Carter who claimed that as a cleric, Ruhollah Khomeini would be a man of peace and was the first American politician to claim that Islam was the religion of peace.

 

Perhaps some of the State Department leadership need to read the Quran, realize that the Medina Quran has overruled the peaceful beliefs of the Meccan Quran. Islam divides the world into two worlds, Dar al Islam, where Islam had established rule and is thus to be considered a world at peace, and Dar al-Harb, the world of war which has yet to be conquered by Islam. That is the reality which the world is simply standing around twiddling their thumbs waiting for Iran to obtain a sizable nuclear armaments with missiles capable of delivering them anywhere on the planet, and even then, the West will wait for Iran to pick and choose when and where they wish to initiate their world conquest. What is really sad is that should Iran decide to begin with Israel, the world will stand by with their hands in their pockets claiming what a great loss it was to lose Israel. This will be the statements coming from Europe and probably the United States after President Trump before Iran even actually attacks as Iran will study the reactions of the rest of the Western leadership as they increasingly threaten to destroy Israel. Israel will very likely be the Czechoslovakia of the coming World War. Fortunately, we in Israel are aware, at least those of us who are pragmatic enough to realize that the world is not exactly going to come running to aid Israel, and Iran is simply waiting for the United States to join Europe in being critical of Israel willing to blame Israel for their being threatened and attacked by Iran. This war is coming, potentially in stages which very readily start with attacks upon Israel. After Israel, expect Jordan to be the next and then Saudi Arabia and as long as the United States remains hands off, Iran will expand and expand taking one nation after another, slowly so as to allow the world to return to a state of calm before advancing to the next victim. For those who claim this is nonsense, Iran has already absorbed Iraq, Yemen, Syria and long-ago Lebanon without even much of a peep from the world, specifically the United Nations who regularly blames Israel for the aggressions from Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, all in the name and at the direction of Iran. Does anybody really believe things will get any better?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

July 11, 2019

Iran Does Not Want War with America; Really?

 

Well, actually, Iran does not want war with America…….now. Iran does desire an excuse to have a war which includes the fleets off of their shores, but they have a deeper desire which allows for this as simply a necessity. Their current desire is to fight America in their region while using such a conflict in order to instigate a war with Israel. Iran intends to replace the United States and any other contenders for the hegemonic power in the world. Iranian leadership actually sees one main obstacle to their initial steps in their hope to eventually be a world power and leader of the allied world. Please do not believe that only the United States and other powers are able to forge coalitions, Iran also seeks to form a coalition which will grant them hegemony over the Middle East and control of the oil within. Iran also seeks to gain control over the Islamic holy cities, Mecca and Medina, currently under Saudi control. Iran desires to take the Saudi, Kuwaiti and Gulf States oil fields as well as taking the region where Saudi Arabia borders on the Red Sea giving them control over Mecca and Medina. Their reasoning behind this place is plainly obvious, they would have control of approximately one-third of the world’s oil supplies, take over being the protector of the holy cities of Mecca and Medina and remove the claim to power held by the Saudi Royal Family, who claim to be the protectors of the holy cities, Mecca and Medina. But the true Iranian desire is to completely destroy Israel and being able to claim they restored the rule of Allah in Jerusalem (al Quds). This is one of the two main reasons for the Iranian involvement in Syria backing Bashar al-Assad. The other reason is to gain and retain control over Damascus, the third actual city in the Islamic hierarchy of metropolitan areas which have holiness. For the Iranians and all other Shiite Muslims, the city of Qom is also amongst the holiest places on Earth. Qom is the location where the Twelfth Imam is supposed to return after, shall we say, a rather lengthy absence from the scene. This Imam disappeared and went into hiding towards the end of the initial violence between Sunni Islam and the new offshoot, Shia Islam. The rumor being that he hid deep in a well and is to return and lead Shiite Islam to their rightful world domination. This well is in Qom, Iran.

 

Most of the Western Media and almost all of the heavily anti-Israel world media are touting Iran as the coming savior which will finally eradicate that Zionist monstrosity at the east end of the Mediterranean Sea, Israel. All one need do is listen to almost any of the regularly held Friday afternoon hate-fests, an even very reminiscent of the 1984 Two Minutes of Hate, just more drawn out. These demonstrations are often accompanied with the burning of Israeli and American flags as well as the burnings of Bibi Netanyahu and Donald Trump in effigy. These are often accompanied by chants of, “Death to Israel,” and, “Death to America.” These demonstrations are often attended by numerous high-ranking Iranian politicians, including those the West labels as moderate, and even the Supreme Leader who has been known to lead these chants of hate and spite towards the developed world. Iranian leaders often make allusions to their former glory years as Persia while continuing to persecute those people who continue to follow the ancient religious practices of the Zoroastrianism. Their relating their greatness to ancient Persia while continuing to imprint the Islamic conqueror’s Islamic faith is very much part of their having fully adopted this conquering faith of Islam. Iran not only has accepted Islam as the replacement for the ancient Persian faiths but have adopted the less followed Islamic cult of Shia Islam.

 

The first idea for supremacism under Shia Islam is the conquest of the Islamic world. The Iranian Mullahs view the destruction of Israel and the eradication of the Jewish faith as their ticket to Islamic prevalence. They believe that if they can become the party of Islam which destroys Israel that the remaining Muslims in the world will suddenly awaken to the supremacy of Shia Islam. It is their belief that they are the one, and definitely not Saudi Arabia, whose leaders they label as apostates, or Egypt which they see as far too nationalistic. Whenever others claim that Iran is also following a supremacist conquest of the Middle East, the fig leaf applied to their nurturing conquest being that of the purification of Islam. Iran sees itself as the Martin Luther of Islam and leading the revolution against the tired and former glories of Sunni Islamic conquest and replacing them with the more energetic and purist Shiite Islam and then from replacing Saudi Arabia and Egypt they see an easy path claiming their supremacy throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa. Their intent then with the destruction of Israel is on a par with their desires to replace Egypt and Saudi Arabia as the nation at the fore of Islam, Islamic thought, Islamic belief and Islamic teachings. Because they are the ones who have been chosen to lead Islam and the future world, their initial test is to destroy Israel, take the Saudi Oil Fields, replacing the Saudi Royal family as the guardians of the two sacred cities and taking over Egypt and converting these Muslims to Shiite Islam from which the rest of the Islamic world will no doubt see the light. With such conquests under their belts, they believe the entirety of the remaining Islamic followers will fall behind their leadership and place them as the true Islamic leaders leaving behind the centuries under Sunni Islam and joining its main rival. This would then be followed by a rewriting of the various Islamic historical thought with supremacist Sunni ideology.

 

Currently, the leaders of Iran view Israel as one of the protectors of Sunni Islam as they view Israel as allied with and protecting Saudi Arabia and the plethora of other peoples and forces that the Iranians are currently engaged. The Mullahs often blame Israel for their setbacks in replacing Sunni Islam with Shia Islam. The disagreement and war between Sunni and Shia Islam are almost as old as the Islamic faith. Their split, as many such dichotomies are, is over who was the rightful heir to Muhammad with each side choosing a different individual and their family lineage on to the current separate leaderships across the Muslim world. Iran also intends to not only impose their version of a perfect form of Islam traceable all the way back to Muhammad, but to replace all religious belief in the world with Shiite Islam providing those they conquer the choice of Islam or a very hurried trip to the world beyond life. These efforts by Iran currently spread across Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States, Syria, Lebanon and beyond, reaching far beyond the constraints of the Islamic world. Iran has implemented a structure of military control whereby they can use their IRGC military assets to foment terror across the globe and spreading their influence across Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and beyond to the Tri-Border Region in South America with the hopes and visions to spread Shiite Islam further. It is the Iranian intent to use this region as their jumping-off point from which to conquer the Americas striking at the United States through its southern borders. Iran and their Hezballah proxy have already been caught attempting to slip terror forces into the United States across her southern borders.

 

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

Tri-Border Region of South America Terror training haven and Iranian proxy state in the Americas and Base of operations for the 17 March 1992 Israeli Embassy Bombing murdering 29 injuring 242 and the Asociación Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA) 18 July 1994 bombing murdered 85 injured over 800 and now we must add the murdered Argentine Prosecutor Alberto Nisman to AMIA fatalities

 

One of the major fronts developing in the Middle East involves Iran and the United States. Thus far, Iran has been the one initiating a conflict almost as if they relish a chance to prove their superiority over the United States who they largely blame along with the British for the existence of Israel. They blame the British for allowing Israel in the first place and the United States presumably for allying with Israel from her inception. Beyond recognition of the Jewish States, American aid and support did not start until the 1970’s. But what is one more lie amongst the myriad of lies piled up by the forces of the world against the Jewish State. Review the logs of the United Nations and her various agencies and one will find Israel as the primary target by the remainder of the world and the Iranian fervor and fire used when referring to the country of Israel. Iran is the primary supporter for Hamas, Hezballah, Bashir al-Assad, Islamic Jihad and numerous other forces which are allied together for the destruction of Israel. Iran does not desire there be a resolution and instead desires to replace continued warfare across the Middle East as conflict and confusion are two of the best weapons used by Iran and her forces with confusion as their favorite weapon behind which there is always their blanket of misinformation placing all blame upon their enemies and espousing their victim status as the offended party only there to defend their good and peaceful name and version of Islam, Shia Islam. Iran couches their claims within the various quotes from within the Quran which denounces the Jews and their Sunni enemies while claiming that Iran is forming the new Caliphate, once Iran manages to convert the bulk of Islam to their way of thinking.

 

Iran believes they can win any conflict with the United States in the Middle East theaters of operation. They also believe that Israel is unable to stand on her own were the United States forced to flee the region after realizing the foremost capacities of the Iranian forces and their masterful superiority. Funny how delusions of greatness almost inevitably lead to one’s downfall. Such is particularly valid when selling the United States short just as has been proven by scoffing at the abilities of Israel. Iran has intentionally placed themselves on the wrong side of both of these fronts and has of late been attempting to force a confrontation in the region’s waters with the American fleets. Their method has been to disable ships passing through the Straits of Hormuz while not sinking them, yet. Despite their intent to simply give the United States a bloody nose and sending them whimpering from the Middle East, their bluster and methods are more likely to lead to a direct and immediate confrontation with America. The main reason such has yet to begin is a credit to the patience of America and not to any careful planning by Iran.

 

Contrary to Iranian claims and the anti-Trump politics in America that it is the United States seeking a confrontation, it has been the patience and desire to avoid all-out war by President Trump which have thus far avoided such a conflict. When Iran pressed a confrontation shooting down an American drone presumably, and likely, in international airspace, it was President Trump who made the final decision to recall the American strike. Rumors have circulated of a difference of opinion over responding militarily and with strength put forward by John Bolton and Trump’s hopes to force negotiations without forcing direct confrontation being at the forefront of United States Iranian policies. President Trump seeks to use sanctions and other pressures to force Iran to the negotiation table that is becoming the primary American policy which we fear Iran will interpret as weakness and inevitably leading to the conflict Trump desires to avoid. Iran will likely eventually attack either shipping through the Straits of Hormuz or upon the American fleets, specifically an aircraft carrier, the stated preferred target by Iran, which could very easily light off the violence which has a great potential for breaking out. This is the unfortunate but likely end result of this face-off over the Iranian nuclear program. Iran is currently backing out of all their presumed obligation in the Iran Nuclear Deal which Europe and Iran remain signatories through the United Nations which is threatening to provoke conflict. Iran recently announced their intent to return to uranium enrichment to twenty-percent which is the greatest threat. Such enrichment in quantity can only be for a singular purpose, the manufacture of nuclear weapons. As Iran most certainly already posses the technology to produce such weapons and that they probably already possess a number of nuclear weapons which should worry the world and not the fact that President Trump pulled out of an agreement which would have most certainly led to a nuclear armed Iran with as many weapons as they are able to produce. Further, the Iranian leaders, both political and military, though there is little difference between the two, in which they claimed that they would sacrifice their entire nation if they are able to take Israel and the United States down with themselves. This is the same frightening position taken by Japan in the Pacific theater which led to the devastating battles during World War II. Iran has even invited the onset of World War III if that is what is required to end their perceived American and Israeli hegemony in the world.

 

It is the supremacist view of the Iranian Mullahs which will force any confrontation and eventually President Trump will run out of patience which will force a response to some future Iranian provocation. When such eventuality forces the confrontation, we will witness the Iranians complaining that it was the United States which forced this confrontation because they refused to comply with Iranian demands. This has been the Mullahs playbook from the onset of this situation and in other cases of the past such as their violent putting down of the Green Revolution in 2009. They blame their adversaries for starting the violence when mostly they were unarmed, as in the Green Revolution which was largely peaceful protests which were set upon by IRGC forces and Basenji militias. The same will come whenever the Iranians push the envelope too far and the United States responds. The claim will be that Iran was simply safeguarding their own waters and the United States violations of Iranian waters or airspace and not the Iranian assaults which will have set off the conflict. One needs to keep in mind that Iran claims that all of the Straits of Hormuz as their waterway which set off the last burst of conflict between the United States and Iran. This time promises to be of little difference. IRGC naval commanders have already claimed that the United States has parked their carrier fleets in Iranian waters. Such would be preposterous if it were not so serious. The American fleets are nowhere near the Iranian shores but Iran is claiming that the United States has no right to have fleets anywhere in the Persian Gulf or Arabian Sea as these are all part of Iranian sovereignty. Iran will continue to press and prick at the United States until a conflict is the only means of ending the stalemate. This will be the point that Iran will order their forces around Israel to begin what they claim will be the destruction of Israel within hours. This will entail rockets and other military assaults from Hezballah in Lebanon, the IRGC in Syria and Hamas with Islamic Jihad from Gaza very probably aided with ballistic missiles fired from Iran and potentially Iraq upon Israel most likely targeting Tel Aviv primarily. When Israel responds, Iran will blame Israel for starting any further conflict as the proper response in their minds would be for Israel to surrender to the presumed superior Islamic forces and come begging and whimpering for their Islamic betters to be kind and allow them to just enjoy their protections. Iran has already made numerous jabs at Israel using rockets, drones and tunneling under the border to which Israel has responded with care not to force the situation beyond each insult. When Israel responds to these aggressions, the Iranian leaders immediately claim that Israel is pushing for a war with Iran despite the fact that Israel has not fired a single weapon into Iranian lands. It is Iran that has placed forces in Syria, armed and trained Hezballah in Lebanon and is currently doing all they can to further arm Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Israel has remained within her borders even when striking back at the Iranian missile launchers and artillery in Syria firing their missiles from aircraft still in Israeli airspace. But Iran will not be satisfied until they have provoked a war with Israel and presumably the United States. Our hope is that the Iranian people can be saved from these militaristic, supremacist belligerents. This might also prove to be the best step for saving the world from a future heavily armed nuclear Iran choosing the when and where they begin their intentioned war for the proper conquest of the world by Shia Islam of which they are its ruling elites and proper world rulers if the rest of us only knew what was best for us.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 10, 2019

Will Anyone Wake-up to Iran?

 

We are not speaking of their bellicose threats to close the Straits of Hormuz or blowing the American fleet out of the Persian Gulf or any of their various threats targeting Israel and the Jews in general. We are not referencing their actions against the Kurds and Sunni of Iraq or their war in Syria or the arming of Hezballah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Nor is it the threats they use targeting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States. What we are alluding to is their nuclear program and their preparing to ramp up their production of enriched uranium. There are probably numerous reasons for their preparations beyond simply readying for the eight to ten years to elapse before they are to be permitted to manufacture all the nuclear weapons both in numbers and varieties under the specification of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). As to exactly when the Iranians are to be free to pursue nuclear weapons under the JCPOA is a difficult date to perceive as it appears that each nation and organization which partook of the talks ended up with their own copy and no two copies were even near identical. The strictest of the disparate copies belonged to President Obama who proudly claimed a great victory. The next strictest copy appears to have gone to the European representatives with theirs all being largely the same. Then the Russian and Chinese got copies which very few have ever bothered to peek inside to see what they received and Iran has its own copy which they hold close to their chest preventing anyone from seeing that copy. Needless to say, each copy apparently was tailored to satisfy the recipients, which makes for some serious questions when it comes to what Iran believes the treaty stated and what everyone else thinks. The wording and different interpretations of the JCPOA have left the world without any real idea as to what was actually agreed upon or whether everybody was permitted to leave the table believing whatever they desired most. Europe got to trade openly with Iran, Russia and China were going to do whatever they desired anyways and the United States was given a copy which permitted the President to declare a great victory. Even with the copy that President Obama touted was no great achievement as its major restrictions on Iran preventing their becoming a nuclear power had a time limit of anywhere from eight to twelve years depending on your source, as we recall hearing these unequal numbers of years before Iran was cut loose from all restrictions.

 

So, this is where we stand. According to channel 13 News in Israel, “Israeli intelligence has identified a huge acceleration in Iran’s preparations for the resumption of uranium enrichment.” Assuming that the Iranian copy of the treaty had the mere eight years limiting their production of nuclear weapons, it very likely would have permitted preparations to begin somewhat sooner. Further, Iran, specifically the Supreme Leader and others who actually have power and rule Iran never really accepted the deal as having anywhere near as strict a regimen as was implied by President Obama plus they believe that perhaps they no longer need to abide by all of the deal as the United States officially voided their participation. This latest revelation by Israeli intelligence was likely announced in part to provide President Trump with information which he may or may not have received from the CIA and other American intelligence sources. We can fully expect that the Europeans could not care less what Iran does in regards to nuclear weapons as long as they are making money and trading freely. That has been their apparent interest in Iran which they doubled down upon by establishing means by which their trade with Iran could continue while getting around the sanctions placed on Iranian companies, banks and oil sales. Russia and China will continue with their own approaches and dealings with Iran also with little if any regard to the American sanctions. By all actions taken into consideration, the nations which appear to be most concerned over the Iranian nuclear program are the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf States and Egypt. Interestingly, this list also very closely resembles the nations which have been most threatened by Iran, which likely explains their concerns.

 

Now to go a little further and investigate possibilities. What is often ignored was the original agreement made between Iran with France, Germany, and the United Kingdom (the EU 3). When Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected as the Iranian President in August of 2005, he referred to the negotiators as treasonous and negated Iranian participation in this treaty. This led to all kinds of diplomatic attempts and other means of forcing Iran to meet their obligations all to no avail. Sanctions did not force any result until after Ahmadinejad had left office and only then was Iran willing to restart negotiations which included the P5+1 and Iran. This eventually led to the JCPOA. What we find to be an oversight is even if Iran had not developed nuclear weapons before their agreement with the EU 3, in the years when Ahmadinejad was President Iran very likely was going with great haste and high expectations to manufacture as many nuclear weapons as their equipment would permit. Even if they had not manufactured a single nuclear weapon before Ahmadinejad, they definitely had the time to enrich sufficient uranium, import the special metals, capacitors and timing flash circuits to produce any variety of nuclear weapon they desired. But allow us to simplify everything and simply point to the diagram below taken off of the web. The design is far from a top-secret plan kept hidden away in some remote government vault as are the designs of more powerful atomic fission bombs. Even though designs are also found for thermonuclear devices, these are far more difficult to produce and do take a great deal of time and manufacturing. The gun type bomb was so sure in the design that the United States never tested one before its usage on Japan. The main difficulty in such a device is the enriched uranium, which was merely seventy percent Uranium 235, and the machining of the plug and target, both made of uranium, such that their fit would produce a rapid enough chain reaction to create the desired explosion. Apparently, the scientists on the Manhattan Project were very sure of their designs and the quality of their machinists. So, those who wish to claim that Iran would have difficulty in even designing a nuclear device are fooling themselves and those who believe them.

 

Little Boy Gun Type Atomic Bomb

 

The next thing is to believe that Iran was incapable of producing sufficient fissile material to produce such a device. The problem here is they would only require enrichment to a lower extent than for the more complex devices, especially a hydrogen bomb. Iran has had the capability of enrichment to seventy percent or thereabouts since they first developed or bought centrifuges, granted they had to be advanced centrifuges, and began enriching uranium as fuel for their nuclear reactors. Well, that was their reason given for such a need despite being supplied with fissile material by Russia. It is even possible that Iran refined some of the Russian provided fuel as their secrecy has made any verification next to impossible. Further, what do people think Iran was doing during the eight years while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was President of Iran and obsessed with obtaining nuclear weapons, in his case the biggest and most destructive kind possible, but at least some made to the specifications above if he could not have something superior. For any who doubt our reasoning and validity of information, below is a picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad visiting an enrichment plant with fairly advanced centrifuges easily capable of enriching uranium to the level required for production of a simple nuclear device. These centrifuges were spinning as fast and to as full a capacity as was possible for the entirety of the eight years he was in office and for how long after is anybody’s guess. Apparently, the Iranians are preparing to wind-up their more advanced centrifuges for full production in the not too distant future, which can mean only one thing, they are preparing to produce additional weapons.

 

 

We hear a few gasps asking why we would claim they are going to make additional weapons; don’t you mean start making weapons. Ahmadinejad, during his eight years as president, had an opportunity to produce very likely dozens if not far more bombs of the gun type and possibly a number of fusion bombs, thermonuclear devices. The reason for the hesitation on declaring his ability to produce many such weapons is due to the difficulty in obtaining or producing the required isotopes of hydrogen and other elements required for such a device. The next question would be about their having sufficient uranium, specifically as yellowcake, Iran has three uranium mines at Saghand, Yazd and Gachin (see map below), and has scientists capable of producing the necessary yellowcake from the ore. Further, there are other nations who gladly trade yellowcake for raw uranium ore as it is just another means of doing business the old barter style method. Many of Iran’s nuclear scientists were educated and worked in the United States and across Europe receiving a top rate education which they have employed upon returning to Iran. Iran is not as backwards a nation as many have been led to believe and has a very educated population. Iranian literacy rates are over eighty-percent of the population being literate. Their higher education has two tracks, one Quranic and the other emphasizes sciences. Their education system is more than up to the task of producing the engineers and scientists required by Iran for any purpose they might desire. So, believing that Iran has not manufactured nuclear devices is pure folly and quite dangerous.

 

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

Iranian Nuclear Sites and Uranium Mines

 

Additionally, some of the Iranian leadership, specifically military leadership, have made references to Israel being a two-bomb nation and their ability to take out the entirety of the United States aircraft carrier fleets in the Persian Gulf with a single bomb. Both of these threats imply some form of nuclear device or extremely advanced EMP devices. The references to Israel have included referencing using nuclear weapons, a threat they would never make without the ability to follow through with their threat. Further, the world has witnessed their progress with ballistic missiles plus their having launched satellites into low Earth orbits. Many of these launches have utilized a north to south orbit taking them over the poles. This is of interest as this orbit has also been practiced by North Korea and is a known Soviet and Chinese orbit of interest as it can be utilized to approach the United States from their southern approach which is presumed to be a weakness in the United States anti-missile defenses. Iran has known ballistic missiles which can reach as far as at least four-thousand kilometers and very likely they are in possession of ICBMs capable of striking anywhere on the planet according to the Brookings Institution (see images below). What becomes quite obvious from a glance at their missiles is that much of the world, if not all of the world, is easily within their range. Now add that for many of their missiles with ranges up to two thousand kilometers (and potentially four thousand kilometers) they have systems by which they can be carried and fired from freighter container ships from anywhere in the world, and these ships make near perfect disguises making tracking them somewhat of a challenge.

 

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

Iranian Rocket Types and Varieties of Ranges

 

So Iran has the necessary missiles and technologies for striking anywhere on Earth and has had more than sufficient time, energy, abilities and desires to build quite a few nuclear devices which minimally would produce twenty to fifty kilotons, that is from slightly more powerful than the bombs dropped on Japan near the end of World War II to as much as three times as powerful. This is excluding their having produced thermonuclear devices whose yields start at fifty kilotons to as high as fifty-megatons of TNT, the most powerful such weapon tested, though it is thought that yields could reach one-hundred megatons with a simple modification. We would suspect that Iran would probably have thermonuclear devices, relatively few in number, reaching yields of ten to twenty megatons at best and that they would have no more than one dozen such weapons. All this which deals with the Iranian nuclear stockpiles has been conjecture on our part as we do not possess any ability for intelligence gathering and have made much of our conjectures based on algorithms and the use of extrapolation combined with our own derived set of expectations of Iranian abilities and other evidence we have observed laced throughout the news of the last few decades. We hope that we have overestimated the abilities of the Iranian scientists but fear we may have been too conservative in our estimates.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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