Beyond the Cusp

January 8, 2019

The Opposing Powers Regarding Syria and Israel

 

There is going to be one of the strangest alignments when Syria becomes an even greater blood-bath. The problems will spill over into Iraq, mostly in the northern regions, and Russia is going to be dependent and thus in a strange alignment with Israel in order to slow and eventually repulse the Iranian attempts at hegemony. The other force which will be adding in no small manner will be Turkey as they attempt to sweep the Kurds off the map in northern Syria and may make a fatal mistake and take their fight with the Kurds into Iraq. The Kurdish forces in Iraq are the same forces that largely were responsible for the defeat of the Islamic State. Their major mistake was not declaring their independence immediately after the highly favorable call for the establishment of Kurdistan back with the September of 2017 referendum. The main problem the Kurds will face is their lack of adequate air forces, but on the ground they proved to be formidable fighters. Yes, we know that Turkish President Erdogan promised President Trump he would only fight the Islamic State and related terrorists. The problem is Erdogan defines all Kurds, even the infants, as dangerous terrorist forces. President Trump is fully aware that despite Turkey presumably being a NATO ally, they are no friend of the United States and that Erdogan sees himself as the great new leader who will be the initiator of the new Ottoman Empire and has designs on Aleppo in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. Hopefully Erdogan realizes that for him to take Mosul he will first be required to fight through the Kurdish forces in the North and then be required to take Mosul from Iraqi forces who are backed by Iranian forced from the IRGC. These are some of the elite forces from the IRGC which are holding Mosul.

 

Meanwhile, the Iranian regime is facing some turbulence on the home front as a plurality of the people desire returning to Western styled Democratic governance. The Iranian economy was not as sturdy and thriving as the Europeans and others claimed it was and the American sanctions are doing their intended effect and doing so well. The slacking wages, rising unemployment, farmers facing under-valued crop prices, and retirees joining the farmers in massive demonstrations in Tehran and Mashhad (Iran’s second largest city) have shaken many a Middle East expert. There is a pair of videos plus many pictures of the demonstrations, the noisy demonstrations. These are simply the latest round of demonstrations. They are following a general worker strike, at least two of them one of which even the taxi drivers joined bringing the capital city and others to a virtual standstill. Before that was a student’s demonstration, it drew support from many workers, including salesmen and many middle-aged men who were witnessed in this set of protests. Basically, the Iranian people want to end the Islamic revolution and instead have an economic revolution which empowers them to improve their lives.

 

Meanwhile, Iran is still making attempts, largely successful, to be the proxy rulers in Iraq and in Lebanon. In Iraq they are simply using the mostly, if not totally, Shiite government as their sock-puppet having it execute their desires which was largely behind the attacks on the Kurds which were carried out largely by militias and IRGC forces. In Lebanon, the Iranian control is far more basic. Nasrallah runs Hezballah, Hezballah basically is the Lebanese government and largely controls its military and Nasrallah takes his orders from the Mullahs of Iran. Iran also holds sway over Gaza with Islamic Jihad, their original agents in Gaza, and Hamas recently coming on-board and receiving additional rocket motors and the plans for machining additional motors providing them with enhanced range which they now threaten Haifa, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv plus all the places inbetween. The latest threats have come from the mouth of Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad Nakhalah who has been threatening that a new war is coming against Israel and this war will be unlike the failures of the past as this time Israel is going to be attacked from the north and south at the same time. One might even conclude by the way he spoke that he was including the Quds Force, a special group from the IRGC specifically trained to take Jerusalem and fight against Israel, attacking over the Golan Heights. One can be assured that during his visit to Tehran and meeting the leadership of the Iranian tyranny, he received guarantees that they would instruct Hezballah to support whatever may be coming from Gaza. He made references to the existence of numerous infiltration tunnels which Israel has yet to find and how the attackers from the North (Lebanon) would swamp the Israeli forces in the north by coming out behind them, between them and possibly within their formations and surprising the IDF and defeating them handily while taking numerous Israeli cities at the same time. Perhaps we should thank him for the warnings.

 

This is all on top of our article from January 6, 2019, titled Iran on the Offensive, in which we discussed the intent by Iran to send warships into the North Atlantic Ocean, very likely close to the United States’ eastern seaboard. What is their intent? Well, it could be to attack the United States at the same time as they unleash their terror forces against Israel and who knows what other surprises the Iranians might have in store for the world. We know that they have worked on making EMP devices which are not nuclear in nature with a fair degree of success. We have always concluded that they must have numerous nuclear weapons by this point in time as they have been working on this since the 1990’s and this would provide Iran with an EMP device capable of potentially threatening much of the North American electrical grid. The problem is attempting to predict what a group of aged Mullahs with grandiose dreams that their forces are invincible and that Allah will double the effect of their efforts and that they are the ones who will rule the world. But there are any numbers of items which make the rulers of the Iranian theocracy even more dangerous at these times.

 

First and foremost is the unrest at home, knowing that they no longer have the protection of an American President who believes much the same as do they. They are completely aware that President Trump would love nothing more than to assist their overthrow by their own people with minimal if any American assistance beyond providing the weapons required to the right people. Should the people take to the streets en-mass as happened in 2009, President Trump will be siding with the people of Iran, and not its leadership and the enforcement terror system upon which they rely to be a constant check threatening the people. Further, they know that President Trump has turned the inhibiting of Iran curbing their meddling beyond their borders to those in the Arab world along with Russia who have the most to lose should Iran complete their Shiite Crescent and all but engulf Saudi Arabia and gain control of the Straight of Hormuz where much of the Arab oil passes and the Bab al-Mandab (see map below) choking off the Red Sea making the Suez Canal useless and destroying a large part of the Egyptian economy. Using these two choke points, Iran can cut off virtually all oil shipments from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the rest of the world, mostly Europe, and with the straight at the southern exit for the Red Sea, they prevent 90% of the shipping between Europe and Asia with the sole other route using the Black Sea and then overland. Of course, neither of these causes too much consternation for the United States, as she is virtually energy independent and can ship to Europe from the East Coast and Asia from their west coast and still have the Panama Canal to go between the two great oceans. Still, closing such strategic waterways would be the quickest means of provoking a war which Iran would likely lose.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

They are aware that their best chance is a knockout first strike decapitating the United States and then economically crippling her. The first is accomplished with a number of nuclear tipped missiles targeting both Washington D.C. as well as New York and then launching a few long-range rockets set to detonate nuclear warheads designed for low yield and a massive EMP Pulse approximately three-hundred miles above Kansas City and allow the destruction of much of the electronics across North America and the short-circuiting of the majority of the large power transformers destroying the electronic grid to such an extent that it may take as long as fifty years to fully repair and in the meantime at least three-quarters of the United States and rest of the effected regions populations will die. Before these people suffer death by any of any various means, they can be satisfied knowing that absolutely nothing of Tehran will remain and those who sent these terrible horrors onto their shores will have been hunted down and killed, possibly too quickly for many, but dead just the same. The United States Navy and other military assets around the world are more than sufficient to end this war with an American victory over Iran. The horrors come from the suffering these conflicts will bring on to so many lives. Still, there is some dark recess in the minds of the ruling Mullahs in Iran who honestly believe that by bringing such horrors unto the world that they are simply preparing the way for the Mahdi and their promised Caliphate where they will rule the world or end up with their perpetual virgins in whatever afterlife they dream over. For so many of us in the developed world the concept of conquering the world died off quite a while back and was completely destroyed by World Wars I and II. What we find incomprehensible is that there are people on the Earth today who still see themselves or those who follow them ruling the world imposing their singular religion upon every person living on the planet and if they refuse putting them to the sword, a nice way of saying kill them, even if it means sawing their heads off with a small knife and taking five to ten minutes to complete the task. The religion which the majority of those with these delusions is Islam; either Sunni or Shiite, but Islam. And, yes, there are those such as the Iranian Mullahs, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Saudi Royals as well as the leaders of Wahhabi Islam, numerous different schools of Sunni and Shiite Islam and a number of dictatorial powers many of which see themselves as ruling over the final result of Communism which will prove triumphant in the end, or so they believe. There are probably a collection of other crazies who actually see themselves ruling the world, as for us, we would be glad for a small patch of the lands between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea ruled by Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

October 28, 2018

It is NOT About Land President Trump

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 3:00 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

Our thoughts, prayers and condolences are with the community of Squirrel Hill and all of Pittsburgh after the horrific Synagogue shootings. Tomorrow we will give our reactions after we are able to digest this tragedy and all its ramifications. May Hashem soothe the bereaved and keep all in His loving care.

 

President Trump is attempting a make a Middle East peace plan, the so-called “Deal of the Century,” in the same way he would negotiate a deal along the Jersey shore. He wants to have each side take lands and agree on borders no matter which elements he is required to include. He tried the Palestinian Authority (PA) and they balked immediately and were quite abusive in their rejection. He tried Jordan and initially got the same response though more measured and polite. He has possibly decided that bribing Jordan will do the trick, he is wrong. Mr. President, we do not know any easier way to put this, this is not about land, this is about Jews. The Arabs made this so very clear in their little tête-à-tête which they held the September after their humiliating defeat in the Six Day War in 1967. They came out with what is known as the Khartoum Resolution and had the infamous ‘Three No’s’, which are “no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with Israel.” The Arab League expelled Egypt for a period after Anwar Sadat signed the Egypt-Israel peace agreement only permitting them back in as Egypt was then one of the more powerful Arab nations and still might be. The entire confrontation comes down to a few very simple and easy points to understand. First is that the region which is Israel had been Islamic territory for hundreds of years under the Caliphate and the Ottoman Empire and as such must never be permitted to fall into the hands of any others. This is a Quranic dictum. The Muslims also claim that most of Spain is actually called Andalusia and is also Islamic lands which they are anxious to retake under their control. One has to wonder if they also wish to sit at the Gates of Vienna once more as twice was not sufficient. This is a religious war over which religion is supreme, Judaism or Islam. Further, Jerusalem being the third holiest city in Islam is a recent development and only came about after the Jews took the entirety of the city in the Six Day War. There have been other third holiest cities in Islam of which probably the two most famous are Damascus and Constantinople. The third holiest city in Islam is reserved for the next city in importance which the Muslim hopes to conquer or control through any means necessary. The main point of any negotiation could not care where any lines are drawn and what the name of each tract of land assumes, it is about which religion controls the land and for there to be peace that religion must be Islam. One last point before explaining further, the worst possible case for the followers of Islam is for the, as they would refer to us, accursed Yahud to take control of previously Islamic land. That is why Mahmoud Abbas made claim that every inch of Israel is an Islamic Waqf, which in this usage means an indelible and indivisible part of property belonging to Islam.

 

This is the idea through which UNESCO made all of the Old City of Jerusalem a Palestinian Heritage Site and disavowed any meaning or significance of the area to Jewish history or of any religious significance to the Jews. They did the exact same thing on Hebron which includes some of the holiest sites in all of Judaism including the Cave of the Patriarchs and Joseph’s tomb. They also had the same declaration on Bethlehem which apart from its Christian heritage is also the location of Rachel’s tomb. The churches in the Old City including the Church of The Holy Sepulchre as well as the churches in Bethlehem including the Church of the Nativity are claimed to be Mosques and belonging to Islam with no relevance to Christianity. They make a big spectacle around Christmas and Easter for economic reason selling trinkets to tourists. Another little concept which it might be wise to keep in mind when dealing with the Arabs, Taqiyyah, which is a directive within the Quran which actually not only allows a Muslim to lie to advance the causes of Islam but actually compels them to lie. The odds are that should they say something to you which is pleasing and meets your expectations, the odds are they are employing Taqiyyah and when the time comes to sign any treaty they will claim they never ever stated what you claim you heard. There is an easy way to understand the position of a Muslim when attempting to make a deal, which is what you claim you desire to accomplish. The first thing is that you must give and they must receive. That is the most basic concept in their minds. They can promise you anything but are not under any obligation to actually fulfill their promises. Anything you even intimate is a possibility, they will pocket that as something you promised and no amount of protestations or reality will change that in their minds. When dealing with them if you promise to give them something in return for something they offered you and then they break off negotiations and later decide to resume the negotiations, what you promised is the new starting point and they get to keep whatever you promised while you get nothing because they did not mean what they said when they agreed to exchange something for your concession.

 

We realize that this does not sound quite right and is a form of negotiating with which you are quite unfamiliar. Allow us to recommend you read some items from American history which might explain some of what you are getting into when dealing with Muslims. Read everything you can find in the White House records by Thomas Jefferson, John Adams, Benjamin Franklin and any other records dealing with the Barbary Pirates and the two separate wars the United States was involved. You may even wish to read some of the commentary from our European counterparts from that period to get an idea at how useless the Europeans were in this struggle despite gaining from your efforts greatly. When Thomas Jefferson queried on why these attacks were being made on American ships when the United States had not entered into any conflict with the rulers of the Barbary Coast, Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja, the Ambassador from Tripoli, replied that Islam “was founded on the Laws of their Prophet, that it was written in their Qur’an, that all nations who should not have acknowledged their authority were sinners, that it was their right and duty to make war upon them wherever they could be found, and to make slaves of all they could take as Prisoners, and that every Musselman [Muslim] who should be slain in battle was sure to go to Paradise.” Needless to say, Thomas Jefferson was quite floored at this response and it was then that he searched out a copy of the Quran in English and read it to his amazement and abhorrence. That is also the Quran which Keith Ellison took his oath of office upon and may have been behind President Obama’s claims that Islam was “woven into the fabric” of the United States since its founding. Perhaps that last part just might give you an idea as to how far the Islamic practice of prevarication can reach.

 

Attack on Derne Under Command of General and Commander in Chief William Eaton

Attack on Derne Under Command of General and Commander in Chief William Eaton

 

Once you have made yourself more attuned to the people with which you are attempting to make a real estate deal and the fact that they are not negotiating anything remotely close to real estate, perhaps we can recommend some additional reading. Then again, you could simply have a long and uninterrupted sit down with your Nations Security Advisor as John Bolton is quite familiar with the history and this knowledge could be of much assistance. You might ask about the San Remo Conference and how the British when they received the Mandate decided that their Mandate to form a Jewish State in those lands did not explicitly state all of those lands, so they gave 78% to the Arabs and paid their debt to the Hashmites by giving them rule over Jordan and Iraq, King Feisal insisted that the British give both sons a kingdom. When the British gave the one son Iraq, they made a deal by which J. Paul Getty received total control of the Mosul oil fields and in return Iraq got to keep the lands which were to have been Kurdistan. This is why when the Kurds hinted they wished to separate from Iraq, it would have behooved the United States to have assisted so as to make good on a promise the world still owes to the Kurds. The British attempted to do the same to the Jews but we decided to ignore the State Department when they informed us that it would be inconvenient for us to declare independence in 1948 because as Jews we have been told it would be inconvenient too many times to care. You probably have noted that the State Department is not exactly a pro-American department and have opposed the greater good for a very long time starting with their tacit support of Hitler and Mussolini with their admiration of the efficiency of fascism. We have always believed that the State Department has always been a little to enamored with the idea of government control over everything. This may be why they also thought that Joe Stalin (Uncle Joe to the State Department) was such a wonderful guy and somebody the United States could take a few lessons from on how to run an economy. We can also tell you a little secret which is actually well known, the State Department thinks that Israel is just a royal pain and wish we would disappear and are willing to kowtow to Islam if they would take care of their Israel problem. Just ask John Bolton and he will probably tell you it would be in the best interests of the United States to recognize the borders Israel was at least promised by the British in exchange for their stealing away 78% of the Mandate lands, and that was that our eastern border was to be the Jordan River and Israel was obliged to recognize the right of everyone residing within her borders to practice their religion, have a business, equality on all economic matters, allowed to own land which means that they are to enjoy religious and civil rights without prejudice but there was one right which Israel could, should they so choose, reserve solely for Jews, political rights such as the vote and holding office. Now, obviously Israel did not choose to do so and gave full citizenship to the Arabs residing within her borders after the war to eliminate the Jews in 1948-9 fortunately fell short. Yes, we lost parts of Judea and Samaria as well as all of Gaza, but we saved our country to live and become the little giant she has become. What is really sad is how hard the world fights to deny us the small plot of land which is a mere 22% of the Mandate, but we all know what their motivating factors are, oil and hatred, an old and dirty hatred. Perhaps the solution would be to grant Israel the lands she was promised and tell the Arabs occupying our remaining lands that perhaps it is time that they moved on let us be. We know, that is way too much to expect from a world that would rather see us erased from the map.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

June 24, 2018

The Spreading Iranian Plague

Filed under: Israel — qwertster @ 1:53 AM
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , ,

 

The entirety of the events makes for a grand conspiracy or the script for a Hollywood movie script. The miracle is that if the story which we will lay out has any validity, then the American people intervened to foil the grand scheme and likely hardly realized their miraculous part in foiling the great laid plans of mice and men thus, as oft claimed, went awry. So, let us dive into a little theater of the absurd and believe that there might have been a master plan. It all starts with the events around the Arab Spring which, as we all remember, became more of an Arab Winter. One need inquire as to what avail and whose advantage would a plan to turn the Arab world upside down serve. Looking at the current picture and the answer becomes plain to see, it would serve allowing Iran to extend their power across the entirety of the Middle East and on to North Africa in the process taking control of the Arabian oil fields and the Suez Canal. This part almost came to fruition only being prevented by the Egyptian Military ending the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and Saudi Arabia coming to the rescue of Bahrain when the Shiites rose to overthrow their Sunni rulers. Without these two events, Egypt would have been weakened to such a point in the ensuing two years as the Muslim Brotherhood eviscerated the military command to solidify their hold, or so they would believe, and given Iran, the real beneficiary of the Arab turmoil, a solid foothold completely surrounding Saudi Arabia and for taking the rest of the Gulf States. Once Iran held the areas of Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Oman in addition to their ally Qatar and their hold of Yemen using the Houthis as their advance force, then strangling Saudi Arabia into eventual submission would have been set in motion. The completion of such would have left Kuwait equally vulnerable along with its oil wealth. Add in a weakened Egypt and Israel would have had the only force of equal or superior ability to prevent an Iranian assault. This was part of an initial phase which might be called the southern front.

 

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

Map of Face-off had Iran Taken Gulf States
in Addition to Iraq Syria and Yemen

 

The northern front was a greater success as the great enabler needs only pull the United States military out of Iraq and leave the door open and the equipment in place for the taking. Once President Barack Obama pulled out the American forces, the Shia majority in Iraq quickly accepted Iranian assistance in routing their Sunni adversaries and taking their revenge for the years of suffering under Saddam Hussein. Iran is now assisting in the final part of the Shiafication of Iraq with the pressing the Kurds further and further north with Turkey now pressing them in Syria sweeping towards the Kurds in Iraq who will eventually find themselves fighting on two fronts. It will be interesting to see what develops when the Turkish push against the Kurds meets the Iran-Iraq push on the Kurds, which will not be of any advantage at that point for the Kurds. The final hurdle was taking the American equipment such as Abrams Heavy Battle Tanks and armored personnel carriers into the hands of Hezballah. This is where the plan received a probably unexpected break when the Islamic State rose up in the Sunni areas of Iraq and in Syria, where a civil war had left a large power vacuum, and brought much of that equipment into Syria where Iranian assisted forces of Hezballah and Iraq mopped up after the Kurdish forces had done the heavy lifting against ISIS. After the fall of the Islamic State, there were pictures of Iraqi and Hezballah troops riding around in their newly acquired Abrams tanks and armored vehicles. Iran, with an assist from Russian air cover, is now winning the war in Syria slowly taking back the rest of the beleaguered country. The Houthis have almost completed the taking of Yemen to the point that they now take an occasional missile strike against Saudi Arabia. Once Yemen has been completely subdued, Iran will hold control over two main choke points for all naval trade going through the Middle East from the vantages of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait (see map below). The Strait of Hormuz controls the passage for all oil shipments from Kuwait and Saudi Arabia while and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait controls the southern entrance to the Red Sea and thus the Suez Canal. With these two waterways controlled by Iran, all naval trade through the Middle East can be choked off by their shore batteries.

 

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait

 

As everything stands, Iran is slowly solidifying a large swath across the Middle East from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea. They hold this through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon which they either are actively stationing forces or have their proxies holding the areas. The two areas they have left to complete are restoring Bashir al-Assad in Syria and completing their conquest of Yemen. Without Oman and the Gulf States, Iran is still stymied in their desires to take over the Saudi Arabian oil fields and coming up along the Red Sea coast to take Mecca and Medina which would permit Iran to claim that they were now the guardians of the Two Holy Cities of Islam. Iran also desires one more prize in Jordan as control of Jordan would provide them with an ability to strike the western coast of Saudi Arabia from both the north and south and complete their virtual surrounding of Israel leaving on the Sinai Peninsula border, which is held by Egypt which is why weakening Egypt was furtherly important, though Iran has injected some terror forces as well as Hamas aiding these forces from Gaza which Iran also controls. All of this brings us to the question of what exactly is going to happen this summer in Israel.

 

Currently, Hamas continues to hold daily rioting along the Gaza border which includes flying kites and launching balloons both carrying incendiary devices which have ignited near countless fires within Israel. These conflagrations have left millions of dollars worth of crops in smoldering ruin and destroyed forests and wilderness preserves. These riots include the burning of thousands of tires causing breathing problems and ecological damage which has risen almost off scale. The only comparable case of such damage, one which was levels of magnitude worse, was the almost unimaginable ecological damage caused by Saddam Hussein when upon leaving Kuwait he had his forces torch a large majority of that nation’s oil platforms. Hamas had fired a series of rockets early in the rioting after which Israel struck hard at Hamas and Islamic Jihad infrastructure. That had appeared to quell their desire to launch rockets into Israel for a while. They are once again firing rockets and this time in greater numbers. We suspect that this escalation has been taken at the insistence of Iran. The remaining question is exactly how far Iran will go in their attacks this summer. Always weighing over Israel like the Sword of Damocles are the over one-hundred-fifty-thousand rockets and missiles, a large number of which can strike with relative accuracy anywhere within Israel and beyond. That brings the question to the forefront, does Iran believe that an all-out war on two fronts will cause Israel sufficient damage to allow for its destruction.

 

Does Iran feel they have sufficient strength in place to destroy Israel in a single stroke lasting only a few weeks thus preventing the United States from intervening or do they believe that they are not yet prepared sufficiently to take that risk? This will be what Tehran will weigh before deciding to involve Hezballah creating a second front. There will always be the possibility that Iran would rather involve Israel in a greater conflict even believing that they will not prevail simply to consolidate their position at home. It would be a grand spectacle proving to the Iranian people that their hardship has been for a purpose, the eradication of the Zionist menace. They could even take a defeat and use it as a reason for a purge to eradicate their internal opposition thus eviscerating the political will to remove the Mullahs from power. Iran knows that even if they should be defeated, they would still hold all of Lebanon with Hezballah, Syria with Bashir al-Assad, Iraq with its Shia governance and the rest of their satellite nations. Further, a valiant effort against Israel would raise their image across the Muslim world and particularly the Arab world. This could cause unrest in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan leading to their making gains in taking control of any combination of these eventual goals. Everything has to be weighed as to how it might have an effect on the eventual Iranian goal of establishing the new Persian Empire reaching from Iran to Morocco. Unfortunately, Iran is one of those nations whose leaders honestly believe that they are destined by their supreme being, Allah in their case, to rule the world and bring everybody to believe in Shia Islam, or else. Thus, even a defeat at any one point now would not change their belief that eventually they will be victorious and glorious days will ensue as they rule the world. The one thing which the rulers of Iran must avoid is having their governance toppled, thus they will also be weighing what would be the chance that President Trump would decide that enough is enough and use the might and power of the United States to bring about regime change. This alone may be sufficient a threat to prevent Iran from pulling the trigger on Israel quite yet, but if they remain in power, the Mullahs will one day launch such an attack.

 

What might be the Israeli reaction to each of these scenarios? If Iran simply lets Hamas and Islamic Jihad carry their offensive, as long as they are not launching missiles into Israel day and night, it might remain a standoff at the level we have already witnessed. Should they start launching missiles into Israel and start striking the major population centers, then Israel will take whatever level of intervention to end their activities for the ensuing few years. There will always be the possibility that should Israel need go into Gaza once again, then they might cleanse the terror infrastructure clean including the leadership, security forces and whatever main support which exists in Gaza and turn Gaza over to the remainder of the population to elect a governance which will repair the damages which Hamas and Islamic Jihad have left untouched in order to complain and have the European Union and others send them more construction provisions which they use to construct tunnels. Gaza could be an economic power if governed correctly and could remain a troubled and economic disaster if they continue on their current path. Since Hamas and Islamic Jihad hold all the weapons and have secret police throughout the populace, there is little possibility of the people overthrowing the terrorists as they would simply kill everyone protesting and continue as if nothing had happened. When your governance is a group of terrorists, you basically are doomed to the likes of Gaza. What people have not heard is that despite there being thousands rioting, they are being paid to do so and still there are millions of Gazans not rioting despite the offer of three-hundred-dollars per day to do so. One can only hope those millions would desire new governance and an opportunity for a better life.

 

What if Iran does attempt to destroy Israel by starting a war in the south with Hamas and Islamic Jihad and then opening a second front out of Lebanon and Syria with Hezballah, the IRGC and Quds Force? The main question then is would Israel hold Iran responsible for this added misery, and if so what would Israel do? The first objective would be to eliminate as many of the missiles and other armaments held by Hezballah as possible. One can be assured that the IDF has been provided with the location of the vast majority of these armaments. The only question then would be how much damage Hezballah could inflict before the Israeli Air Force destroys the vast majority of their missiles and other armaments. The next question is what would be the cost in aircraft and pilots as many of these missions would necessarily need to strike within Syria where a fair amount of Hezballah provisions and forces are stationed. Such a second front would also necessitate a far faster resolution with less concern for delicacies such as worries to eliminate collateral damage. The air assault on the Hezballah supplies would also need strike into the Baka Valley which has most of the Iranian provided anti-aircraft batteries. This is another difficulty which would need addressing. But there still is one major question, would Israel strike Iran, and if so, how? Should Israel strike Iran, it might be done covertly using commandos tasked with beheading the snake, so to speak. This would be an attempt at performing the one move which would end the Iranian threat to the entirety of the world, regime change through a quick coup. This would be coordinated quickly with those known to be trustworthy in the not so loyal opposition to the Islamic Theocracy currently enslaving Iran. This would also require that strikes be initiated against the IRGC, the Basij Militia, any known enforcement personnel, and all of the ruling elite, and that means all of the ruling elite including those who pretend to be the lesser evils, as lesser evils are still evils. The Iranians have been infamous for their double-dealing and glad-handing while stabbing one in the back. Such an attack would require stealth and strict coordination as once an alarm is sounded, the entire mission would be in danger of failure.

 

Another possibility would be a quick strike at many crucial infrastructure to the ruling Mullahs such as IRGC military bases, nuclear facilities, munitions storage, command and control centers plus whatever other vital centers within Iran. Such a strike would be at the furthest edge of the ability for the Israeli Air Force which would be greatly enhanced if they could avail themselves of a closer airfield. Such aid would be performed with the utmost secrecy as any Arab nation aiding Israel would face a severe backlash from their people even against Iran. There is this sensitivity about Muslim assisting others against other Muslims. Still, there are a few airbases which could be utilized and the blame be thrown onto the United States, and President Trump may have been elected just for such a purpose, not by the American people but by, how should we word this, the fates? The one item that is obvious is that had Hillary Clinton won the last American Presidential Elections, Iran would have had a free hand to complete their plans and taken a stranglehold of the entirety of the Middle East. There would even be the possibility that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and even Jordan might have fallen to the Mullahs and Israel would be entirely surrounded. Unfortunately, there is still one piece of low hanging fruit which the Iranians might be able to pluck off the Middle East fig tree, the Palestinian authority and PLO. This would be difficult as long as Mahmoud Abbas remains their leader but should he fall, then it would very much depend on what ensued. Should Iran gain control over the PLO and Palestinian Authority, it would mean that Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be on the Israel eastern boundary and hold a fair amount of the higher ground. This would prove to be quite unhealthy to Israel and could not be permitted to stand. Under such conditions, Israel would have no other choice but to annex the entirety of the Shomron and remove anything related to the PLO, Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other Islamist entities. This would require being executed quickly, efficiently and with little concern for world opinion. We have to face one thing, when there is a knife at your throat, world opinion is meaningless and removing the threat is your only concern.

 

Concluding, we can pray that the Gaza front quiets and the Gazans who are participating tire of the uselessness of their actions. We might even be gifted with regime change in Gaza, Iran and that the Kurds prove victorious on both fronts and declare their own nations with President Trump visiting within the month of their doing so to move the American Embassy to their capital city of their democratic governance. Do we dare wish for Erdogan not win the upcoming Turkish elections, fat chance there. May Jordan and the Palestinian Arabs reach an accord allowing them to be Jordanian citizens and have the choice of relocating to Jordan, for which Jordan and they would be rewarded, or remaining under Israeli law as resident aliens allowing Israel to finally re-achieve the Jordan River as her rightful and legal border. Lastly, may the world find health, happiness and plenty for all, relieving all misery and disease.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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