Some Ideas Never Die; Such as the Oslo Accords

 

Truly some ideas never die even when they have long passed their use-by-date. The Oslo Accords are one such set of ideas which died the day that President William Jefferson Clinton handed to Yasser Arafat, after beating Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak into complete submission, everything he had demanded and Arafat walked out without a word and started the Second Intifada. It was later revealed that Arafat had planned the Second Intifada as the Palestinian answer to not getting their demands at the Camp David negotiations and still insisted that Israeli resistance to a common peace was the reason for the violence. Over a thousand Israelis were murdered and tens of thousands were injured, many with permanent and severe damage from the bombings with bolts and screws lodged permanently next to their spines, hearts and other organs or jammed into their brains all inoperable due to location. Many lost limbs, an eye or both eyes and other disfigurements. The Second Intifada, on top of Arafat refusing to make peace even after his terms were met, defined the situation and should have been the post mortem for the Oslo Accords. Arafat’s understudy and successor, Mahmoud Abbas, has often made clear to any willing to translate his Arabic speeches that the only peace he will allow Israel is the peace of the grave. As the pro-Palestinian protesters throughout Western countries chant ad-nauseam, “From the River to the Sea, Palestine must be free.” The word ‘free’ in this chant has a double meaning, the obvious that all of Israel is Palestine and secondly that every Jew will have been eradicated as Palestine must be Judenrein. Abbas has flatly stated even in English that should they be forced into accepting a shared state beside Israel, it will simply serve as the launching pad for the remainder of the conquest and eradication of the Zionist Entity. Even his saying Israel is difficult for this man and his band of minions.

 

What is truly sad is not only the number of Western leaders who remain sold on the Oslo two states for two peoples principle; it is the number of Israeli military and intelligence leadership who also are still sold on these lies and deceptions. There never has been any Oslo agreement because the understanding of the two sides were as divergent as possible. Israel saw them as the opportunity for peace and cooperation and the Palestinian leadership, with the support of the Arab world behind them, saw it as taqiyyah, a deceit used against an infidel in order to advance Islamic interests and conquest. The concept of taqiyyah is well established and understood by any first year graduate student in Middle Eastern studies programs; and if not, they should find a different area of study. The problem is that peace is such a universal and central structure in Western thought and philosophies, as are negotiations and dealing honestly and forthrightly, that to believe that things are otherwise is difficult, though possible if one tries and concentrates on exactly what the other side says to their own people. What makes things more difficult is that the liberal leftist media and populations refuse to allow themselves, under any circumstance, to believe that peace might be impossible to attain in any situation. If the left today were faced with the onset of World War II, they would negotiate and negotiate until the free world consisted of some small atoll in the South Pacific surrounded by Japanese and German naval vessels, and they would be negotiating still. There is also the little fact that Israel is seen as the Jew amongst nations and as such has a separate and impossible set of expectations which are made worse by the leftist Jews, such as those who make up J-street and other similar groups, who also apply this absurd demand that Israel sacrifice and sacrifice with no end to how much or how far the sacrifice demanded be, as they are not the ones who will pay the price. Some have even gone so far as to claim, what do the Israelis have to lose in sacrificing for peace as they can always come and live in the United States. This is, in and of itself, an absurd piece of illogic not to mention, history has shown what happens when Jews face death and try to rely on the good graces of the Western nations.

 

We recently read an article on Politico targeting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu over his disagreement with the outspoken and mostly retired military and intelligence corps, and how such a disagreement is leading Israel dangerously close to fascism. It was the author’s, and we trust the editors’ as well, that Israelis would be better led by its military and intelligence officers than under their elected leader. The article is titled Netanyahu vs. the Generals and went on and on endlessly stating the same tired logic as if repetition and quoting every last individual supporting the spitefulness against Netanyahu would eventually wear the reader down. The piece might actually be the opening shot across the bow announcing the candidacy of Ehud Barak for Prime Minister. Small hint to those in agreement, should Israelis have a choice between Ehud Barak and virtually any moderate or even extremist right wing politician, Barak would lose convincingly. Where his reputation is not nearly that of Guy Fawkes, the disasters attached to his time as Prime Minister preclude his ever holding that position for as long as Israelis have memories of his atrocious policy choices, of which the hasty and disorganized routing retreat from Lebanon is just the beginning of the highlight reel. For the record neither of us supported Likud and in one case, at least, Bibi Netanyahu was much of the reason why as there are numerous other Likud members who would very easily garner our votes, but that is up to the Likudnics to decide. We realize that changes take time, so time will tell.

 

British Mandate as prescribed division between Arab State of Jordan and Jewish State of Israel

 

As far as peace with the Palestinians, we need realize that the term Palestinian once meant the Jews residing under British Mandate rule while at those times the Arabs were known as Arabs or Palestinian Arabs as compared to Palestinian Jews. One also need remember that this was during the period when both Jordan and Israel were simply the Mandate. Eventually the plan was enacted and Jordan became the Arab State and Israel the Jewish State. The most obvious difference was Israel permitted Arabs, whether practicing Muslims, Christians, Jews or any other or no religion, to remain residing with full rights as citizens, while Jordan expelled any Jew ever to come within their area under their control. That was made most evident after they conquered by force of arms in an offensive war parts of Judea and Samaria, renamed it West Bank, and evicted every last Jew under pain of death, gifting their lands to people favored by the government and destroyed every Synagogue and Jewish religious academy within said lands. The adopting of Palestinian by the Arabs was just one part of their adoption of all of Jewish history with some simple adjustments in an effort to claim them and not the Israelites, the Jews, were the earliest surviving peoples from these areas. Anybody familiar with Judeo-Christian religions knows this to be a deceit and even more so if they are knowledgeable of Islamic and Arab history, as the Arabs did not venture forth from the Arabian Peninsula until the Seventh Century. That date is almost, if not, two millennia after the Israelites arrived from their Exodus from Egypt; one might be familiar with this as there is a book of the Old Testament with the same name. If we were to count from the times when Abraham first arrived in the land, we would need close to another half of a millennia if not more. Their deceit can only last as long as people continue to give their lies credence, which they do at their own peril. Such brings us to our next discussion, the awakening of the Western World.

 

For most of the past century plus the casualty of Islamic violence has been the Jewish communities in the area of Israel both before the birth of the nation in 1948 and continuously afterwards starting with the invasion by multiple armies the morning of her birth. India and Russia had rather publicly covered conflicts and numerous African nations have also been subjected to violence as have much of the Balkans. Then there have been the intra-Islamic violence. It has only been the turn of the Twenty-First Century which has brought continued and sustained Islamic violence to the Western World. What is going to be instructive is exactly how the developed world reacts to the onslaught of Islamic violence. Of further interest will be whether or not their views and demands upon Israel are altered even in the slightest as a result of these experiences. Russia has shown Israel a fair degree of respect and freedom to act as necessary while not giving full measure as they also keep relations with the Muslim nations such as with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria; for it is with Syria they hold their Mediterranean warm water Atlantic Naval ports.

 

Beyond this, the longest standing restrictions on Islamic activities belong with Japan. Many are unaware but Japan has always refused Muslims permanent residence status in their lands. Further, Muslims may not own property, may not operate a business and the worship of Islam is banned. Needless to point out but no Mosque may ever be built on Japanese soil. Muslim tourism is permitted but any Muslim tourist caught conducting any form of Islamic instructions or otherwise attempting to spread the word of Islam is summarily and immediately deported along with their entire family; and if with a group, then the entire group is deported. The Japanese treat Islam as if it were a dread plague that once taking a foothold could threaten life on their islands. If the news is accurate, and we see no reason to disbelieve our sources, Cuba has recently refused permission for a Mosque to be built on their island, Cuba, that’s right, Cuba! Angola is but the first in alphabetical order of African nations enacting some limit if not outright ban on Islam.

 

In Europe the latest trend has been in opposition to Angela Markel‘s open door policy for Muslims with Norway having deported many hundreds resulting in a better than 50% drop in felonies. This is allowing their police to attend to other functions rather than putting out crime emergencies twenty-four-seven for the first time since the ‘refugees’ began arriving. Additionally there have been reports of attacks against Mosques and Muslims with some areas becoming so unfriendly that the Muslims are deporting themselves back to their home nations. The Czech Republic has flat banned Islam from their country declaring it to be an evil. Muslims in Ireland have reached the conclusion that they are less than welcome and in Belfast, as a start, the Muslims have been departing for home sweet home and this appears to be the trend across all of Northern Ireland. The British Home Secretary is preparing legislations which, though not expressly stating their application to Muslims, are aimed at curtailing anti-social behavior and allowing greater leeway in deporting or using other lesser methods to control an out of hand situation. The Polish Defense League has issued a warning to Muslims against their continuing certain behaviors and sixteen states have drafted legislation banning Sharia. A number of states in America are entertaining laws banning Sharia or any foreign code of laws all aimed at preventing the use of Sharia. China has imprisoned twenty-two Imams for preaching hate and anti-China themes and has executed eighteen jihadists. China is additionally stamping out any campaigns for separatism especially in the largely Islamic western province of Xinjiang. Muslim prayers are banned in government buildings and schools in China. Our last example of such measures comes from the Netherlands where a group of Ministers of Parliament are calling for the closure and destruction of all Mosques. One Minister stated “We want to clean Netherlands of hateful Islam.” He did not differentiate hateful Islam from any other form of Islam. Speaking on behalf of the right wing Party for Freedom, a nationalist party, Minister of the Dutch Parliament Machiel De Graaf stated, “All Mosques in the Netherlands should be shut down. Without Islam the Netherlands would be a wonderful, safe country to live in, as it was before the arrival of Muslim ‘refugees’.”

 

The world appears to slowly be awakening to the real face of Islam; a violent and unruly cult more desirous of ruling the world than of acting in what the rest of the world believes is a religious manner. Every other previous imperialist religion, Christianity, Shinto, Hindu and any others, have all been reformed and now stand side by side with all these religions seeking peaceful coexistence and mutual assistance. The exception to this rule is obvious, Islam. When Mosques are discovered in numerous countries to contain more rifles, grenades, bombs and bomb making material than prayer rugs and prayer books, then there is a definite problem. As the developed world realizes, along with the rest of the world, this threat for what it is, it is hoped that they will apply their learned knowledge to the situation in Israel. This could finally allow the solution which should have been applied immediately after the Six Day War, Israel attaining her originally promised borders, which includes the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea, and those previous Jordanian citizens and their families deported to the Arab nation of their choosing willing to receive them, or into Syria. The double standard cannot be continued after the truth has been driven home that Islam does not play well with others and is treacherous to the continued health of any nation it inhabits. What is good for the European nations and the world in general must, in all fairness, also be permitted Israel. To do otherwise is pure anti-Semitism, and this time that is an accurate accusation and an accurate application of the terminology.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Iran Desires Some Things Even the Saudis Cannot Buy

 

Saudi Arabia is used to facing problems for where the determining factor is oil or money. The current crisis is not one of that ilk. It is not one that can be done completely just by controlling the price of oil as doing that might upset Russia, the Saudi’s recent new best friend after the United States proved unreliable and apparently had joined the Iranians whose immediate plan is to take the Saudi oil fields thus neutering the Saudi influence and taking away their only real weapon. But the apparent newest friend of the United States has far more than taking merely oil, they want it all and the Saudis had best know about the other half of the Iranian plans, the half where they take the most valuable of the Saudi influences. The oil is only money and that can be taken back with force even if doing so heavily damages the fields as that too can be easily repaired and the Iranians do not wish to become merely the all but sole power over OPEC and thus be able to push the price of oil up or down according to their whims. But the oil fields, as such, are not even the primary goal because the Iranians have as their primary appetite which is to control Islam, something they find to be the more appealing and possessing a far more important goal requiring their attentions and that is to have the holy cities starting with Mecca and Medina. Some here believe that their backing of the Houthis to take control of Yemen is less about controlling the Bab el Mandeb Straights and more about providing them with a more direct route in reaching Mecca and Medina coming from the south which is often the least guarded area of Saudi Arabia and once the Iranians get past those tasked with guarding the southern borders it would become a three party race to control the holy cities, two being the Iranians closing from Yemen in the south and from Iraq in the north while the Saudi forces would need to be called from their concentration on the oil fields and transported the width of the country to join the fight. This lends to my answering those who have asked about what made me believe that World War III was on the horizon and this is my reply and explanation.

 

Once Iran controls the oil fields and both Mecca and Medina, and thus adding to the Shiite holy sites in Iran and in Iraq where their efforts will be directed in defending those near Islamic State borders or already swallowed by the Islamic State thus requiring liberation they can move to their next challenge. With their control over Mecca and Medina added to Damascus, Najaf, in Iraq with Qom in Iran they can then fortify any other Shiite holy places in Iraq from the ravages of the Islamic State and work towards returning Damascus and all of Syria which at the moment appears more like a pressing and difficult problem. Should the situation turn for the worst, as it appears that the Syrian and Hezballah forces are losing badly in Syria, Iran will need to interject some serious forces to reacquire all of Syria thus rejoining these lands with Iraq and thus attaining a direct land route for resupply. This will require the removal of Islamic State from their holdings and that may prove to be a most difficult task. None of these tasks are dependent on the Iranian production of nuclear weapons as those weapons can only be utilized in places which possess no natural or religiously important sites as such sites becoming uninhabitable due to radiation would defeat gaining their control. Taking out the Islamic State resources in open areas of lesser importance would be the perfect locations for tactical nuclear intervention providing breaking the treaty just negotiated would not prove advantageous as it would give the next President of the United States the perfect excuse to interfere with Iranian immediate plans to take control of the most prized and sensitive locations in all of Islam.

 

Fortunately for Israel and the United States these goals are more likely the primary goals for Iran as their gaining preeminence in the Muslim world and the display of Shia Islam as ascending and Sunni Islam as the weak and decrepit old and stale form of Islam would serve them well in converting the majority of Sunni adherents to Shiite doctrines. The fact that once the Iranians had defeated Saudi Arabia or at least gained the vital parts of the oil fields of the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia along with Mecca and Medina they could then set to establishing Madrassa throughout the Islamic and Western worlds replacing the Wahhabi schools and other centers with Shia schools and centers and will go a long way towards this goal. There are two other obstacles which Iran will need to overcome, Turkey and Egypt, both of which are well armed and have well trained militaries and will each pose their own necessary problems for the Iranians to address. Many might claim that the Kurds would also pose a problem but oddly enough, there are scenarios in which they could become allies if their ends were also considered. Should the Iranians prove to be the chess players they were at the P5+1 nuclear talks, not that President Obama desired to present any bit the real defender of the realm and actually desired to provide Iran with a perfectly clean route to nuclear weapons even to go so far as to provide United States assistance in designing the ultimate in centrifuges and potentially the actual plans, methods and procurement of equipment for the entire production of thermonuclear warheads and setting up multiple sites dispersed around Iran in German designed and build bunkers for their continued safety and Secretary Kerry as the clown at the talks being advised and encouraged all the while to simply give in at any sign of resistance and to make the demands in such a plaintive, diminutive and weak tone as to invite refusals, what could possibly go wrong as long as the American people were never aroused the plan would work, and it functioned like clockwork they will parley these gifts into further gains.

 

So, once Iran has cemented their control over the Arabian Peninsula, and the Shiite crescent through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, the next two nuts to crack are Turkey and Egypt. Turkey can be defeated quickest and with minimal efforts providing they decide not to simply bow to Iranian hegemony and take the refusal to their retaining independence and instead becoming a semiautonomous district subject to the whims and necessities of Tehran, then Turkey will have been neutered and the Kurds circumvented and thus left alone for the time being as their threat is minimal as all they desire, much like Israel, is their little corner of the world and they will be content ad happy. Unfortunately for the people of Turkey, I do not see Erdogan capitulating and to subside his rule to Tehran which would make him an enemy. The best tactic for invading Turkey would be to seek the aid of the Kurds under the promise of granting them the eastern quarter of Turkey and the lands they already control even including Mosul as an autonomous region loyal to Iran. As long as the Iranians remain loyal to their promises the Kurds would do similarly. This would leave Egypt as the sole roadblock to hegemonic establishment of the Caliphate as the rest of North Africa would readily fall to Iran. There is no easy way to take Egypt but she could be weakened severely just by the loss of the Sinai Peninsula and grabbing control of the two ends of the Suez Canal thus taking from Egypt a major revenue source. Probably the best manner of taking Egypt is from within and by establishing Shia Islam as dominant and thus having them desire to join the strong and growing in power Iranians who are the true leaders of Islam and the emerging Caliphate.

 

After Egypt the goal changes immensely and the impossible must be considered, well, the impossible from the erudite scholars in the West, nobody told the Iranian or the Arab worlds that such was considered beyond acceptable, the seeking to conquer the entire world and willing to do whatever it takes and destroy half the world simply to rule the remainder. The United States has always practiced capture and release policy starting in the twentieth century and this molded their concept that any one nation conquering the world was out of the question. Europe, as we have seen, would be happy to unite Europe and have it ruled by a council of the nations and somehow find some formula that equalized Germany and Greece and the two completely foreign to each other lifestyles. Europe, in its self-imposed demilitarized European theater would pose little opposition should their Islamic populations approach thirty percent and decide that Europe should be required to join the Caliphate as the real and unadulterated authoritative force in the world. It is entirely possible that should there be rioting and mayhem with hundreds if not thousands murdered in the uprising that the European Union would desire quiet to such an extent as to capitulate and then the nations would call for a meeting of NATO and it is quite possible that most of NATO would claim their desire to join the Caliphate and desire all of NATO to simply recognize that this was the future of the world. The United States and possibly some of the eastern European nations would oppose such and NATO would effectively be dissolved allowing the majority of NATO nations and European Union nations would just surrender to Islam without a fight, the preferred method by the rulers of the Caliphate.

 

 

Could this be an Iranian Caliphate resulting from the concessions all are making in the here and now and their hungers being satiated by a weakened and war weary Western World, especially Europe and leftists in America?

 

 

At some point the remaining European powers, probably Poland and England and a few of the former Warsaw Pact nations resisting and uniting with the United States, and oddly enough, with China and Russia all unite in order to fight to prevent what they finally recognized was an actual intent to rule the entire globe. The unthinkable would finally begin to be realized that nobody had informed the Iranians that conquest of the world was an undesirable goal and totally unacceptable by what was formerly the civilized Western World. The problem is that only the Western World had ever adopted that concept. Unimaginable as it would be to think so, but even Kim Jong Un probably envisioned a world being ruled by him or one of his progeny. The remaining powers somehow included Israel, which had lost Tel Aviv to the Iranian hope that one bomb would end Israel. Instead that one bomb just steeled their steadfastness and lighted the resolve of one third of American Jewry who made Aliyah bringing with them their wealth, all under an emergency plan by Israel’s government calling for all Jews to male Aliyah immediately. This was stated to be the rallying for the safety of Israel and Jerusalem. This swelled the Jewish population even after the loss of almost two-million souls when Tel Aviv was struck; the Israeli Jewish population reached an unthinkable eleven-million Jews. This in-swelling of the Jews from around the world was seen by many younger Arab Islamists as a sign for them to move across the Jordan River and join with the Caliphate which had absorbed Jordan in a three day blitz. The Jordanian King was able to get his family inside Israel along with many of the ruling elites who desired the relative safety of Israel than to face the often unpredictable dictates of the Shia conquerors. Israel offered safety and provided an escape to the United States where they all took up residence in the Napa Valley and spent their days sipping wine on the various tours of the vineyards.

 

The alliance of Britain, Poland, Romania, Czechoslovakia, Russia, China, a number of other smaller former Soviet satellites and miraculously, Israel joined forces to end the rise of the Caliphate once and for all. It is inevitable given the divisions in this world which have irreconcilable differences and completely opposing philosophic views and precepts, the clash between the two once the weaker, Islam, could be united against the currently still stronger United States and the British commonwealth nations which includes Canada, Australia, the British Isles, Ireland (though they would deny it till the end), United States, India, New Zealand, and a few I probably missed, would band together in a response to any threat against a single state, especially if that threat was aimed at London and Ten Downing Street and Buckingham Palace as the world knows, there are but five Queens in this world and there are near countless versions of four and one stands apart. They are the Queen of Hearts, Queen of Clubs, Queen of Spades, and Queen of Diamonds and above them all is the Queen of England. That will be the next and hopefully final world war though I have my doubts about last. Let us pray that the deal struck with Iran does not make that final World War the one told of by Albert Einstein in the answer he presumably gave when asked what weapons World War III would be fought with and he replied “I do not know with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Our Economic World is Shakier Than We’ve Been Told

 

The mainstream media, especially the European Media, are all the news all the time covering the Greek economic meltdown. Some of the more honest media has also included the crises that could be soon to topple as if dominoes all in a row of which Greece is but the first domino to be tripped to fall and they have shown how Spain and Portugal would be precariously hanging and soon toppled partly as a result of Greece’s defaulting though it might be likely they would have fallen eventually all on their own. These would trigger a crisis in Ireland and Italy as to which would be the fourth victim and which would follow as the fifth victim signaling the end of the most endangered Eurozone nations too close to default to be comforting. The real horrific effect of these five weaker economies finally tripping the default cable and snagging the economic webbing, which has held the European Union and the Euro together since 1999, doing irreparable damage to the delicate webbing, more fragile than the most slightly laced spider’s web, tearing enormous holes in its intricate weaves slashing at the most vital threads and upsetting the ever so precarious balance that underlies its supporting structures threatening to unbalance and collapse even the previously though stable economies of France, Poland and many of the other east European economies possibly pushing them right to the cliff-face and potentially tipping them beyond the cusp and into default thus lacerating the last remnants of the Eurozone and possibly taking with them Germany and the ECB (European Central Bank) causing unimaginable damage to the financial structure of Europe and beyond, the ripple effect causing a second deep recession well more serious and taking longer to tank-out and hit bottom and then begin a long sluggish scent clawing for every single Red Cent and Dollar and Euro after having taken its toll on Asia and beyond. But the Euro, Greece, and the rest of the European Union and the Eurozone is but one whirlpool looking to sink every last economic boat.

 

The Euro is what we have been led to believe is the only threat. Where previously economic ships only had to worry about rising and falling tides, now they are adrift and facing not just one whirlpool representing the Euro dying, but now there is a second even more massive whirlpool coming from deep within Asia. China has hit the road’s end and is attempting to push its enormous mountain of debt using a garden trowel while piling on fresh debt using Caterpillar 990K series front end loader shoveling an additional $19.3 billion in an effort to end their three week slide totaling $3.2 trillion downturn in the past three weeks alone. These losses were the result of a Chinese Stock Market where as many as two-thirds of the stocks were frozen in a further attempt to stem the torrents of dollars flowing from their stock market and their economy like the icy waters which flooded the lower decks of the Titanic as she slowly but inexorably fell beneath the waves, something somewhat prophetic for the Chinese markets and economy. There is actually a comparison between the situation in Greece and the downturn in China as one must remember that Greece is as socialist as a nation can be without being either fascist or Communist and Greece has retained their spirit of a democratic Parliamentary system despite it all but China has taken socialism that one final step to communism, the addition of mostly state owned corporations and central planning of the economic engines and manufacturing. Chinese leaders had been attempting to liberalize their economic sectors, though not all of them, selling a number of previously State run businesses and even permitted competition between companies in the same market hoping this would charge their economy further and it had been working but even free-market economic liberalization was unable to stave off this meltdown. The problem obviously is what will this mean for the liberalization of the Chinese economy as the leadership are still Communists who serve the Party and depend on the Party, may decide that much of their financial woes are the result of these new policies and curtail or even reverse some or all of the liberalized companies, markets and take a giant leap backwards to increased government control over every iota of the economy and the manufacturing and sales etc.

 

United States Treasury Secretary Jack Lew commented Wednesday on the current crisis in China stating at the Brookings Institution, that the economies of the United States and China are “still pretty much separated.” In further testimony Secretary Lew queried, “I think the concern … it is a real one … is what does it mean about long term growth in China?” Further in his speech he pointed to the main potential impacts which could emerge as a result to the Chinese Stock Market bleeding financially leaving the leadership seeing ‘Red’ in more ways than one. The leading question is to figure out as soon as possible what the reaction of the leaders of the Communist Party is and whether they may decide that the problem dictates such as appointing new leadership, freezing prices, injecting even more dollars into the markets through the banks and state owned businesses or closing the banks and Stock Market for a week or two cool down and reset to normalcy again; the choices and potential marrying of any two or three makes predictions near to impossible. The one thing which can be computed and predicted as long as the numbers being released and any steps taken are done so in plain view then the impact of the Stock Market freefall on the Chinese economy’s core condition and whether it appears that it will have much elasticity and dynamics when the end is finally reached and the rollercoaster slides on in to the station signaling the end of the ride, and what a ride it was with vigorous growth only to drop who knows how large a percentage of that growth in this correction, and what a correction. Secretary Lew’s closing thoughts are worthy of being repeated as he emphasized, “The question isn’t their commitment to the goal; the question is the pace at which they implemented it, and do they do it fast enough for it to be effective. I hope this is not something that slows down the pace of reform. If the reaction is to put the brakes on reforms, that will slow that process.”

 

With China making a long overdue correction which will be far more severe than it should or could have been if the leadership was not so intent on what numbers they released to the world and on making their predicted economic increase and meet all targets set within the government as to fail was unthinkable and would have been a terrible loss of face thus undermining faith in the economy. This has caused the Chinese to follow the example first used by President George W. Bush and turbocharged by President Barack Hussein Obama which was in the old school simply called a ‘stimulus package’ but is now known by a more enigmatic phrase of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ either of which hides the actual result and method being implemented as who would stand for the government announcing they were devaluing the money supply and taxing every single American by a minimum percentage directly proportional to the percentage increase the total added funding was doled out in stacks of hundred dollar bills, literally thousands of such stacks in the United States and unknown amounts though what is known is the Chinese leadership pumped close to twice the percentage of GDP as did the United States. Just as the United States took their hit starting back in late 2008 and continuing through 2011 and briefly relieved with another round of ‘Quantitative Easing,’ this was like the third pitcher of beer at a table trying to drink their way sober. The economic burst from that mid and late 2011 ‘Quantitative Easing’ gave the economy a burst of hope which appeared to continue due to lowered interest rates and the paring down and mostly neutering of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act gave the economy the needed push for President Obama’s reelection as he could run his campaign claiming to have turned the economy around and that great times lie ahead. Well, as far as that goes I’ll point to Greece and China and point out that the United States has followed similar patterns of fueling the economy and especially the Stock Market with borrowed monies and when loans were unavailable the Federal Reserve would electronically buy Treasury Bonds with funds they imagined into existence as a few strokes on a Federal Reserve keyboard and one produces and completed sale with funny money in that the receipt for the Treasury Bonds was used to balance the books as it represented the electronically derived cash used. This is a very convenient way to purchase items this way when you are the government or a very clever fraudster as just try using the sales slip from one register, say men’s clothing from a department store as cash at the Jewelry Counter and see how far that takes you. The catch, and there is always a catch, to ‘Quantitative Easing’ is that eventually you either have to pay back the money that was invented which can only be done some combination of these three methods, first is retire actual money from circulation which can also be done electronically by retiring any electronic payment made on credit cards, second is to remove the funds through higher taxes taking the money directly from the supply, and lastly one could raise the interest rates and siphon off a percentage of each loan to pay the Piper so to speak. The problem is that each of these methods actually hurt the consumer the most; it is the public that pays the price for the economic and financial misdeeds and ill-advised policies.

 

There are but a few redeeming features out of all of this and one serious and potentially unavoidable problem, and it is a big one. So, we will leave the bad news for last and the good news which will cause doom’s day to come and come quickly first. The best of news is that the meltdown in China is most likely to be relatively unfelt even amongst their Asian markets as China does not purchase many goods from outside and the few major needs she has will continue even if slightly abated, things essential like coal and petroleum. Further, the only nation carrying a trade deficit of any note is the United States and even should quotas be placed on any goods currently purchased from China will very likely have ten other sources with some popping up due to China cutting production. The European crisis is more likely to hit the United States harder than anything else on the economic horizon. Should the Eurozone break apart due to the collapse of several of their nations having financial difficulties and teetering at the edge of financial Armageddon plus one, Greece, which has in all honesty gone beyond the cusp and is currently running with his feet well away from solid ground just hanging there for that brief Wiley Coyote moment before collapsing into the darkness below only to make a small puff of dust rising depicting his hitting bottom. Even should the entire Eurozone collapse it may actually serve to keep a lid on inflation and allow for low interests rates, a necessity for the United States. That brings us back to the one thing that at first everyone would be glad to see, a real recovery with rising workforce participation which in the United States is down to approximately 63%, one of the lowest figures since the mid-1970s. This would also bring jobs, especially higher end job market opening up once again which would allow for a ripple effect. As the overqualified people working at menial or minimum wage jobs would leave those as jobs in their field became available and they gain employment thus making room for these other positions to employ more of the nations’ work force and soon inflation will return, something there has been no worry about as even the few months where such measurements showed a possibility for inflation to develop only for indicators to slide back the next couple of months with it often seeming like one big step forward and all promise breaking out only to be followed by three or four months of small to moderate steps backwards and everything gained to be lost and often more. When inflation does finally return for real then there will be a really bad situation. Once inflation starts to threaten then the interest rates will rise as a counter to inflation. Rising inflation takes a bigger bite out of people’s pockets all but actual theft. Inflation also helps with making the national debt somewhat more manageable by deflating the value of the currency taking the currency to new lows and the lessening to of the value of the debt and the purchasing power of that coinage. This was where Greece and the other nations in the Eurozone faced; they no longer had control over their coinage, their monetary worth so they were unable to simply lessen the value in order to get a handle on their debts and also make their nation more attractive to investors and new businesses. Perhaps leaving the Eurozone for a set period of possibly not less than two years and no longer than a decade or quarter century at which point they can reapply at the short end or must face a permanent decision at the longer end. Granted, this will possibly make some nations more reckless but the consequence is the only alternative to having the Eurozone nations turn their entire control of monetary and fiscal planning over to Brussels, they already control the monetary which is part of the problem, and most nations will refuse to be relieved of the power of the purse even if they are no longer able to control the coinage of said purse. Perhaps even a rotating schedule where every nation has to spend a decade using their own coinage would be another compromise. Until the Eurozone finds the answer they will be facing little impossible challenges as is Greece right now and others down the line. Let’s just hope their mistakes don’t become global economic-mines blowing the world markets haywire.

 

Beyond the Cusp