Beyond the Cusp

January 14, 2019

Latest Israeli Aggression Scandal

 

There have been reports and the follow-up denunciations over Israeli airstrikes against positions within Syria. Why this should bother people is beyond understanding. Even the fact that there was a ceasefire reached between Syria and Israel quite some time ago, the recent and numerous attacks upon Israeli sovereign soil ended any such agreement. We understand that after every rocket launched, artillery fire, sniper shootings and other aggressions by forces in Syria there has been the spurious apologies claiming they were all accidental. This included a number of drones which have crossed and flown over Israeli communities in the Galilee with armaments on many of these drones which were fortunately intercepted before they claimed lives or destroyed whatever was their intended target. All of these incidents would be considered acts of war were they perpetrated against any nation other than Israel. Because these blatant attacks were merely against Israel, the standing opinion is that Israelis need to just suck it up and absorb such assaults from time to time simply because the world demands so. Well, let us tell you a little truth, Israel is an equal with any other nation and if your leaders believe that such attacks upon Israel sovereign soil is nothing to get upset about, perhaps you would feel more understanding if you lived in our neighborhood and were suffering such intrusions. So, yes, Israel has attacked positions in Syria with the majority of them not even Syrian positions but those of Iran. Let us talk a little about these Iranian outposts.

 

The first thing one need know is that the Iranian leadership has declared that they are at war with Israel. They have blatantly insisted that they will wipe Israel off the map, that Israel is a cancerous tumor which must be excised, that Israel is an offense to Islam and numerous other claims of hostility. Then there are the weekly few hours of hate, they had to go one better than the mere two minutes of hate in the book 1984 by George Orwell, where throngs of Iranians gather in Tehran and other cities after Friday services and chant, “Death to Israel,” and sometimes, “Death to America,” and they do these chants with great fervor and true intent to carry out their claims some day. Well, that day may be approaching should Iran succeed in taking control of Syria and Bashir al-Assad pushing Russia from Syria all together. Iran has set up some IRGC command centers and barracks for their forces which are supporting al-Assad in the slaughter of his own people as he attempts to retake what is left of his former country. The fact that the United States, on orders from President Donald Trump, is on their way out of Syria, that leaves the only true powers in Syria to be Russia and Iran. Allow us to disabuse you if you thought that Russia and Syria were working in conjunction to assist Bashir al-Assad, they are competing for the role of the power behind the throne in Syria and there can be only one. Iran is not about to share Syria with anyone and especially the sea coast and port facilities, the areas which Russia desires most and is willing to go to the mat to retain them. That leaves a question of where does Israel fit into all of this. Well, that is easy as President Trump advised Russian President Putin that he should look to Israel if he ever might need a friend once the United States has departed. This will make for some interesting dialogue and interplay to say the least.

 

This is all part of the future in what is rapidly becoming the new Middle East. We have the United States advising the Russians that for any assistance they may need in Syria to turn to Israel. Meanwhile, there has been a thawing to the point of secretive negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Israel as well as a whole new attitude by a number of the Gulf States concerning Israel with some potentially making overtures of allowing for diplomatic relations and an exchange of embassies. All of this simply because the Arab Sunni Islamic nations are in fear for their lives from their Persian neighbors and Shiite Islam arising bearing threats against them. Impending upheavals make for very strange bedfellows, don’t they? With the United States on their way out of the entire Middle East, that leaves the two main powers to be Iran (Persia) and Israel. Historically, it was the Persians under Cyrus the Great who liberated the Jews from their Babylonian exile allowing them to return home and build the Second Temple. Further, previous to 1979 and President Jimmy Carter assisting the overthrow of the Shah Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi allowing for Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini to assume leadership claiming that the Ayatollah, as a religious cleric, had to be a man of peace and tranquility, Iran and Israel had been close friends. Grand Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was the initiator of the hatred and vile spouted by Iranian leaders since his return against Israel and the United States. The embassy crisis followed where student revolutionaries who adhered to the Ayatollah’s teachings seized sixty-six hostages, mostly diplomats and embassy employees. After a short period of time, thirteen of these hostages were released, these were women, African-Americans and not American citizens thus, Khomeini argued that they were subjects of American oppressions. The remainders were held for four-hundred-forty-four days, up until the hour that Ronald Reagan was sworn into office as President of the United States. Thus, President Barack Obama was not the first President to befriend the Iranian Ayatollahs.

 

The main problem for Iran when it comes to making good on their numerous promises of destroying Israel, the Zionist Entity as they often refer to Israel, is that Iran does not share a border with Israel from which to mount an attack. There is a fair distance and a couple of other countries which are in the way (see map below). Iran has already taken care of one of those countries by basically becoming the new rulers, by proxies, of Iraq and they almost completely control Lebanon through Hezballah. The Iranian problem is who takes control of Syria, in particular southern Syria including Damascus and the border along the Golan Heights. This threat makes the fact that Israel has refused to return the Golan Heights to Syria even in exchange of a treaty as history showed that the sniper training was carried out on the Golan Heights with Israeli farmers as their targets. If Israel had returned the Golan Heights, one could safely bet that there would be IRGC troops atop them today shooting into the fertile valleys where most of Israeli farms are located. The threat of Iranian troops amassed along the Lebanese and Syrian borders is the main reason that Israel and Russia have a common problem, Iran. This is where we get to why Israel has been making airstrikes into Syria.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

The problem has been that Iran has all but completed their Shiite Crescent across from the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea (see map below) and taken control of almost all trade routes and the flow of oil from the Middle East. Their efforts in Yemen and Syria are the only areas which are still being contentious. The Kurds in northern Iraq are not a great concern to Iran as their main reason for desiring Iraq is as a land bridge to the Mediterranean Sea and for supplying their forces in Syria and Lebanon via that land bridge. Their interest in Yemen is in order to pose a threat to Saudi Arabia from the south as well as the north. The two regions within Saudi Arabia which are desired by Iran, as they do not want the large region of sand and rocks in the central region, are the oil fields largely in the northeast and control of Mecca and Medina (where the star is on the map) which are the two holy cities and the claim under which the Saudi Royal family has claimed their right to rule, and the second is the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight, which controls the southern exit from the Red Sea which also gives them control over the Suez Canal, the main source of revenue for Egypt other than tourism. Iran has within their own territory the ability to threaten ships passing through the Straights of Hormuz through which almost all of Middle East oil, that of the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran and Kuwait, pass through which they have previously blockaded only to have the United States Fifth Fleet reopen the waters by escorting every oil tanker and ship passing through that choke-point. The Iranian aim is to control the entirety of the Middle East through holding every vital seaway and thus holding every Middle East nation hostage with their economies at risk. They have come very close to these goals with only Saudi Arabia preventing their final takeover of Yemen using the Houthis as their proxies while providing them with Hezballah forces as well as IRGC assistance. In Syria Iran has gone further while using Hezballah and IRGC, they have also committed some of the regular Iranian military who are largely assisting with logistics and been responsible for the attempted drone attacks upon Israel.

 

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

Shiite Crescent including Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Iran

 

So, why has Israel attacked Syria? To be technical, Israel has not attacked Syria as much as they have been preventing the Iranians from setting up home bases in Syria, prevented as much as possible the arming of Hezballah with long range missiles and rockets and other armaments and heavy weapons, and struck at IRGC targets and struck weapons caches which belonged to either Hezballah or the IRGC. Israel has, for the most part, cleared these strikes with Russian commanders such that they not have their forces in the target region. Despite the fact that this could tip off the Iranian forces allowing them time to relocate the particular items which Israel hopes to destroy, Israel still will strike trying not to start a war with Russia, just with Iran and Syria. That would not work well as missile carriers are quite recognizable and easily located. Thus transporting missiles to prevent Israeli airstrikes from destroying them may just be making that easier as they would be in the open. Israel is actually still in a state of war with Syria which makes all of these strikes that much more Kosher. With the exit of the United States, the only things standing between Iran and an open route from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea are Russia and Israel. Further, if we were Jordan, we would be very nervous having the voracious appetite for controlling the Middle Eat and maximizing borders with Saudi Arabia and Israel sitting on their northern and eastern borders. Perhaps it would be advantageous for the King of Jordan to be making nice with Israel and stop picking needless fights just to appease violent Islamists protesting demanding the destruction of Israel. We suspect (though have no proof yet) that these protesters in Jordan are backed by Iran and possibly being trained by IRGC terror experts in an attempt to foment the overthrow of King Abdullah II replacing him with, what else, a Shiite theocracy run by Iran. In order to try to prevent many of these things and beyond what we mentioned here, such as eventually taking Egypt, Turkey and then driving across Europe and who knows after that, Iranian ambitions as stated by the Ayatollah is to rule the world imposing Shia Islam as the sole religion. Iran through Hezballah already has a training region in South America in what is called the Tri-Border Area. How big a potential threat is Iran, well President Trump thinks they are a real big threat and we agreed, discussing the entirety of the threats with this article. Their potential for creating threats reaches to every corner of the earth and hopefully not beyond, at least not yet. Part, a small part, of stopping Iran is the vital link they require in Syria, thus Israel will continue to do what is required to prevent this calamity from occurring to Israel and potentially Europe and beyond.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 11, 2018

Is Third Lebanon War Inevitable?

 

Israel is doing all she is able in order to at least stall war with slim hopes of avoiding it all together. Israel has sent messages pleading with the Lebanese government to end the adaptation of the largest of the one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets into guided missiles with within ten-meter accuracy and some even tighter control. Iran has been shipping guidance packages which can be added to normal rockets turning them into guided missiles capable of targeting any Israeli site and be assured of striking them. Israel has made the upgrade of these rockets into guided missiles a red-line which must not be crossed as allowing such leaves Israel under a definitive threat. Needless to point out, but when one places a red line before any of the many Iranian functionaries, such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Houthis and Hezballah, Iran will push them past that red-line just to goad Israel by providing a threat level which cannot be permitted on her border. It is bad enough that Iran has stocked Hezballah with over one-hundred-fifty-thousands of rockets of varying sizes and ranges (see table below), but now Iran is providing guidance packages and advisors who taught Hezballah how to retrofit mere rockets making them into guided missiles which transforms the threat level beyond what Israel can permit. This message is being provided to be passed on to Lebanese government, specifically Lebanese Prime Minister Sa’ad Hariri by French President Emmanuel Macron who was to deliver the Israeli warning. The choice is very simple and plainly put, either Lebanon prevents any further retooling of the Hezballah rocket inventory or Israel will break everything Hezballah is utilizing for this purpose and probably somewhat more. This would lay waste to large areas of Beirut as well as the surrounding countryside, the Bekaa Valley and most of the areas south of the Litani River.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

According to United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, Hezballah was not to rearm, was to remove all offensive capabilities including manpower from south of the Litani River, abandon and destroy the tunnel and bunker network north of the Israeli border up to the Litani River and not engage Israel with a threat of her destruction. United Nations forces were to enforce these terms and should they fail, circumventing or contravening any of these stipulations was to be considered a casus belli instituting a state of war. Hezballah has ignored, transgressed and shredded every item in this treaty often using United Nations vehicles to transport rockets, munitions, terrorist fighters and support people almost everywhere south of the Litani River. Hezballah has not only repaired but expanded, extended and more fully integrated their tunnels, bunkers, rocket firing position and storage areas throughout the regions south of the Litani River. Hezballah has restocked and augmented their rockets with M-600’s, Zelzal-2 and Scud-D rockets approaching one-hundred-thousand of these longer range rockets as well as presumably incorporated the entire arsenal of the Lebanese Army at their command should they be required to engage with Israel. Israel has observed this build-up but drew a red-line in the sand that she would not tolerate guided missiles which could be made to strike any specific target within Israel potentially causing grievous harm to Israeli infrastructure and her people. This was why Israel had bombed a number of the recent attempts which were providing guided missiles to Hezballah from Iran. Now Iran has taken a different tactic, they have been providing Hezballah with special adapter kits consisting of guidance fins and a targeting system which refits unguided rockets transforming them into guided missiles capable of striking specific targets within Israel.

 

How does the addition of guidance packages to thousands of long-range rockets really change anything when the sheer numbers of Hezballah rockets meant that Israel could be virtually blanketed by rockets. The reality is while Hezballah has these many tens of thousands of larger rockets and could presumably blanket Israel from the north to the southern tip, by making them into guided missiles they can specifically target nuclear power stations in Haifa poisoning the entire area with a blanket of radiation, the Dimona Research Reactor, the skyscrapers in Tel Aviv, train terminals and any other infrastructure including the larger shelters where thousands of Israelis will have gathered to be safe from the rockets. Striking one of these larger shelters with four or five guided missiles one after the other would likely compromise the structure rendering it unsafe and potentially collapsing the structure killing many hundreds of civilians. Further, there will be a limited number of these larger rockets capable of being fired before Israel would strike the launch facilities including the mobile launchers preventing a second wave. Now that first wave of newly converted guided missiles would be capable of crippling Israeli infrastructure killing electrical power to much of the nation as well as destroying fuel reserves and other vital infrastructure. Additionally, Hezballah has been provided with a number of the Russian S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems (see image below). These are the identical units which Russia provided Bashir al-Assad with as a threat to Israeli air operations over Syria. These would require detection and destruction before the majority of Israel jet fighters would be safe flying over Lebanon, especially when making a strike run. The limited number of fifth generation F-35 aircraft would be required to make the first attacks on these systems as their stealth makes them less threatened by this system which uses radar guidance. These systems were a game changer providing Hezballah with advance anti-aircraft capabilities which is capable of intercepting the F-15’s and F-16’s or any other aircraft other than the F-35’s recently added to the Israeli Air Force.

 

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles with Radar System and Control Vehicle

Russian Produced S-300 Anti-Aircraft Missiles
with Radar System and Control Vehicle

 

The Hezballah threat which has continued to slowly but surely build its threat level to the point where permitting any further escalation would make Hezballah a definitive threat which Israel could no longer permit to choose the time of any confrontation. The safety of many Israelis depends on the IDF initiating any war with Hezballah should Hezballah initiate such a conflict and posses guidance package enhanced rockets which could be used to target Israeli military and civilian airfields. One could hope that Iron Dome and other interception systems would intercept a large majority, still even should 90% or more be intercepted out of one-thousand missiles, should the current escalation continue for another six months, such still leaves one-hundred missiles striking their targets. This would allow one-hundred rockets, missiles, mortars and other projectiles striking Israel for ever thousand rockets fired. This would mean that Hezballah currently could have fifteen-thousand rockets strike Israel. This is why the Israeli Air Force must be capable of taking out the vast majority of everything from the smallest rockets to the largest guided missiles. International Law permits nations instigating acts of war against any force across any border which is preparing to have and deliver destruction which is beyond the ability of the nation to absorb and survive. For a country such as the United States or Russia, there exist very few nations which could deliver such destruction upon them and none of these nations share a border with them. Israel, by comparison, is the approximate size of New Jersey and her neighboring nations, even the wreck which is Syria, are intent upon her destruction. Hezballah is currently, with heavy Iranian assistance, crossing the threshold beyond that which Israel can tolerate. The other terror group with their own semi-autonomous region, Hamas, has been threatening Israel and has already caused significant damage burning down virtually every field of crops within fifteen miles or so of the Gaza border with Israel. Israel cannot leave both Hezballah and Hamas in a position to strike at her at the time of their choosing, as such, an attack could hinder Israeli abilities to respond with sufficient swiftness.

 

With Iran controlling Hezballah and the two main terror groups in Gaza, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, Israel might very well wake one morning with a war engaging from the north or the south and by the end of the day have a second front break-out on the opposite border thus requiring Israel to commit to a two fronts war. This is not the best of scenarios and would require nearly shutting the country down and calling up virtually all combat reservists. Israel practices such a call-up ever two years just to be able to iron out any difficulties which may erupt as a consequence of such a training mission. When performing such a difficult call-up during a two front war, there would be guaranteed confusion which would take some precious time to iron out. Some of the Commanding Generals on the General Staff have claimed that Israel is incapable of fighting a two front war against the two groups in Gaza and Hezballah in Lebanon. What could make matters even worse would be if IRGC Iranian troops as well as the Iranian Quds Force also attacked Israel along the Golan Heights and rest of the Syrian border with Bashir al-Assad providing protection from aircraft with his improved S-300 antiaircraft systems as well as giving them air support and artillery support as well. There is even the possibility of the Russian forces in Syria allowing the deploying of their S-400 anti-air defense systems, the most advanced systems the Russians currently deploy. The Russians allowing the use of their advanced F-400 systems might be sufficient coverage against the Israeli F-35 stealth fighters, but maybe not. Such would be the first use official test of the presumed superiority of the F-35 stealth fighters in actual combat against the Russian anti-aircraft systems. Israel would gladly forgo any such war as any time spent in a state of war, especially if it required calling up significant numbers of reserves as that is what results in shutting down much of the Israeli economy. That is what makes any war so costly to Israel, and that is before we have to count the devastating loss of life, especially innocent life on either side.

 

Israel has attempted to express the problem in a number of different ways. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made the threat of the conversion of rockets into guided missiles the central theme of his United Nations speech. He laid out exactly where the underground facilities carrying out the conversion were located including pictures of the soccer field under which two of these conversion sites were operating. He covered the southern Beirut neighborhoods where support operations and coordination was being handled. Prime Minister Netanyahu told that Israel could not allow this threat to continue and grow any further and that should Iran continue using Hezballah to be their proxy with which to attack Israel, that Israel knows the real power behind those forces attempting to destroy the Jewish State. Israel stated that the continued operations to make these missiles into existential threats would force Israel to act and implied that under some circumstances, Israel might find it to her advantage to engage Iran directly to end her supplying Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas with weapons to use against Israel. Trying to avoid an inevitable war has to be frustrating. Where does an Israeli leader turn for help in preventing such a war. There have been messages sent through France, the United States, and even been mentioned in the Al Hayat newspaper where it stated that Israeli National Security Adviser Eitan Ben-David has told French officials that Israel was seeking a diplomatic solution before embarking on a military operation. They cannot claim that nobody warned them any longer and perhaps it is their intention to provoke a war with Israel, but perhaps not at this time. In part of Netanyahu’s speech, he warned Hezbollah that, “Israel knows what you are doing, Israel knows where you are doing it, and Israel will not let you get away with it.” Also, this past January, Israeli Defense Forces spokesperson, Brigadier General Ronen Manelis, wrote an op-ed to a Lebanese newspaper in which he directed a warning to Hezbollah that their efforts to manufacture rockets inside Lebanon would plunge the region into war. There is not much more Israel can do yet still the leadership of Hezballah insists on continuing to upgrade their rockets into guided missiles coming ever closer to that number where Israel chooses to act. The resultant war would also be devastating for Lebanon and would almost wipe everything south of the Litani River with the length and breadth of the Bekaa Valley as well as much of Beirut where this work is being conducted. One item which is often overlooked is that Israel also has rockets and numerous guided missiles with which to strike at targets including those buried deep underground. This little fact is also of supreme importance to one individual and any in his bunker with him, dear Nasrallah, we know where you are hiding and even when you change locations, so; you better look out, you better not shout, no threats to Israel you spout and running all about, for the IDF is coming for you.

 

This threat of war can be dismantled and not intentionally made worse and worse until Israel absolutely must strike as leaving such a number of guided missiles ready to strike at the heart of the nation killing untold numbers due to the increased accuracy. Should these guided missiles be utilized on central Tel Aviv striking many of the towers, bringing any of them down would result in a massive loss of life. Such would be an Israeli 9/11, something nobody outside of the Arab and Muslim worlds desire seeing. There would be candy handed out in the streets of Gaza and around the Middle East in celebration of the death of so many Israelis as any who happened to be Israeli Arabs, well, that is what you get for working alongside Jews. These forces including Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezballah, IRGC, Quds Force, Palestinian Authority, PLO, the leadership of Iran and others around the Middle East and North Africa, all fight for and pray for and hope for the eventual taking back of the land where Israel currently stands. These forces love this land so much they are willing to burn it to the ground and leaving it a slag heap of radioactive debris which would leave it uninhabitable for the next few decades if not centuries. That is how much they love the land, but it goes with their mantra which states that they love death as Israelis love life, and that is why they will defeat Israel. Their accusation is absolutely correct except that they will not win, as life is stronger simply because it is based on love and light and not on hate and darkness as their culture of death has become. Israel desires to build, invent, plant, nurture and make advances which will benefit all of humankind while they desire to kill, destroy and tear down and then cannot figure out why they are incapable of advancement. Life, light and love must win out here in Israel otherwise the world is at risk of falling into a prolonged dark age which will take science and industry back about a thousand years and leave much of what has been built fallen to the ground in twisted ruins. That is the future we must, as the human race, choose between, light, love and life or darkness, hate and death. We choose life. We give love. We spread light to chase away the darkness. Remember that a single candle with its tiny flame can illuminate an entire room chasing out its darkness even from the corners.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 6, 2018

Foreboding Predictions Abound

 

Most of these predictions ring relatively hollow as they are still kicking that dead horse of Russian collusion electing President Trump. Some hold a fair amount of credibility such as the predictions of the coming President Trump’s Trade War. But for us living here in Israel, perhaps the most chilling are those which speak of a coming war out of the north such as here and here or the even worse prediction of a multi-front war mentioned here. Fortunately, we here at BTC have some comments on this ourselves. Our feelings are that these predictions underestimate Israeli preparedness and adaptability.

 

The one thing which was pointed out which is very real and true is that the main threat Israel holds initially is her air power. It was pointed out that Hezballah has an exorbitant number of guided missiles, estimates in excess of one-hundred-fifty-thousand, with rather more than adequate accuracy that they pose a threat to every runway in all of Israel. Further, they posit that this could negate Israeli air power by preventing its taking off and, later on, landing. The first half is easily negated as these modern jets can take off with a relatively short start which makes many of the taxiways adequate to get them into the air. From that point forward, it becomes a race to repair the runways sufficiently to allow their landing. What has been proven repeatedly is that runways can be patched and returned to service with great expediency and alacrity. This was proven in World War II by both the British and the Nazis as bombing the runways proved inadequate to prevent aircraft from taking off even later the same day. It was proven in Viet Nam as the same speed and adroitness allowed North Viet Nam to put planes in the air the same afternoon after the runways had been struck only hours earlier. The same would apply to Israel as the technique proven to work even for fast flying jets had been to fill the crater with sand and gravel and top it with asphalt or fast drying cement and you are good to go. Further, even if the runways are not prepared and aircraft need an emergency runway immediately, there are numerous stretches of multi-lane highways very capable of use and could be cleared in a matter of minutes if not faster.

 

Another matter is that Israel is not solely dependent upon aircraft to deliver stinging blows of return fire using missiles of her own fired from ground stations and naval platforms. Furthermore, the Israel missile defenses are extremely adequate for protecting vital airfields, aircraft and other defense facilities. Another point was that Israeli defenses could be swarmed but that misses the point that using missiles as the very first line response allows almost immediate return fire. Further, with the efficiency of Israeli intelligence, it might even be likely that sufficient aircraft would have already been launched to strike at targets before the first missiles even struck their targets and certainly before the second or third volley had been prepared and launched. Israel showed such abilities on previous occasions. Also, as the front lines plus depth of assets are relatively tight to the borders as most of Hezballah instillations are in either the Beqaa Valley or south of the Litani River (see map below), their launching positions within Lebanon are already mapped by the IDF so striking them immediately upon any attack would be easily implemented. As Hezballah was also engaged in the war in Syria along with Iran and Russia, Israel can expect Iranian IRGC troops alongside Hezballah just east of the Golan Heights where Israel holds the commanding strategic area at the summit. Everything, even if located in northern Syria, is within minutes distance for both Israeli missiles and fighter aircraft. Unfortunately, much can be also stated about Israeli facilities, especially those between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem in the heart of the nation, and we mean the beating heart. Israeli High Command likely has numerous scenarios for most attack profiles for Hezballah even with contingencies for IRGC and Iranian regular Army troops as well as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza and forces from the Sinai Peninsula across the Egyptian border. The one thing Israel may be counting on which would be somewhat a surprise would be Jordan also launching an attack. Even should the Palestinian Security Force also launch, Israel definitely would have that covered. Israel, if such an attack were to occur on all these multiple fronts, would have but one response which would be logical, wipe every vestige of offensive capability off the battlefield and beyond. The entirety of the Lebanese and whatever remnants of the Syrian electrical grids should be decimated along with all other utilities to as severe a degree as possible. All airfields should be destroyed including all hangars, the flight tower and airfield emergency facilities. Fire stations and police stations should be primary targets as well. No ability to sustain an offensive should remain and all command and control of military assets must be utterly destroyed no matter their location. This would include the Hamas main command bunker located beneath Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Any civilian facility which would normally be completely off limits and protected by the Geneva Conventions become targetable as a military asset if it is utilized to store weaponry, house active fighting troops, launching facilities placed in close proximity such as on roofs or between buildings, or if utilized as a command center. This is recognized in the Geneva Conventions as making even schools and hospitals targetable should they be used to protect military facilities. Of course, these rules apply in a normative battlefield but when it is Israel fighting for her survival, even military targets with no civilian aspect become debatable targets and when struck may become the area under investigation for war crimes. This was adequately made visible in the Israeli Hunt for Ambushed Soldier and the much overblown firefight in the Jenin Refugee Camp which even the United Nations sided with Israel validating everything reported by Israel about the battle and refuted the entire Palestinian Arab fantasy that Israel had slaughtered hundreds if not thousands of innocent civilians. It was found that the Palestinian Arabs had used civilians as bait to draw IDF soldiers into booby-trapped buildings thus placing civilians in jeopardy even to the point of placing explosives under the civilians such as when they were moved, they would have the bomb detonate murdering them and possibly killing the Israeli soldiers.

 

Map of Hezballah Military Emplacements

Map of Hezballah Military Emplacements

 

Israeli responses to an initial strike by Hezballah out of Lebanon need to be beyond anything Lebanon has ever faced. The entirety of Lebanon and its military must be targeted as it has been taken over by Hezballah. This was proven when Hezballah moved into Syria supported by the very Abrams main battle tanks which President Obama sold to the Lebanese Army after they gave verbal assurances that there was no connection between the Lebanese military and Hezballah. The CIA, Israeli Intelligence, MI6 and numerous other military intelligence groups around the globe all knew that Hezballah had taken over the Lebanese military and President Obama was informed of this. Despite the warnings, President Obama sold top of the line military equipment knowing and intending for it to be used by Hezballah. His intent was for them to use it against Israel and not to use it in the Syrian civil war. President Obama may still get his wish though the numbers of weapons and main battle tanks has been diminished in the Syrian conflict. We can only thank Hashem for this good fortune and their losses may not be finished as the war grinds on and on. There is still the chance that Iran will become disgruntled at Turkey apparently attempting to take some of Syrian Northern Provinces with his assaults on the Kurds. While Iran and Bashir al-Assad will lose little sleep and shed no tears for the Kurds, they will be disgruntled over losing land, any land, even to a presumed ally such as Turkey’s President Erdoğan. Should hostilities break out between Syria and Turkey, Hezballah may find themselves drawn into a very problematic confrontation as Turkey is as well if not better equipped than Hezballah and equal to the Iranians and we should not count out the Russians as it will depend on how Putin feels about Erdoğan when he gets out of bed that morning the decision will be made.

 

Still, Israel cannot allow any of the resources known about for Hezballah or the Lebanese Military to survive the initial strikes. Within the first twelve hours, at least seventy-five percent of all military resources available to Hezballah in Lebanon need be incapacitated and destroyed. Further, Lebanese infrastructure must be neutralized completely. This also must be applicable to all military instillations within a couple hundred miles of the Israeli border within Syria should forces stationed attack Israel with even an artillery shell or single rocket or even a stray bullet crossing the border into the Golan Heights. Israel should also already be prepared to coordinate with Jordan should Iran make moves to cross the border with Jordan either to try and flank Israeli forces in the Golan Heights or to actually take over Jordan and depose the Jordanian governance. Israel must also have plans ready if Iran should start to fly aircraft and fire missiles out of Iraq or even from Iran itself. These plans will be the most difficult to actually accomplish with minimal casualties and loss of aircraft. The distance makes most of Iran beyond Israeli reach without having a refueling stop somewhere along the way. Saudi Arabia has some very conveniently placed military airfields as well as those surrounding Riyadh and including the international airport in the Riyadh area (see map below). Even with an under the covers agreement for Israel to utilize these airbases or any of the others should such need become required, flights to strike Iran would still be fraught with perilous dangers.

 

Potential Saudi Arabian Refueling Airfields for Israeli Air Force

Potential Saudi Arabian Refueling Airfields for Israeli Air Force

 

The only real way for Israel to strike Iran would be with missiles. This becomes very apparent once one takes in the measure of the difference in size of the two nations and the distance involved. Additionally, the vast majority of the land between Israel and Iran must be considered hostile as Iran controls most of Iraq to include all of the air space above Iraq. Jordan is highly unlikely to allow Israel permission for overflight of military aircraft. Israel would be required out of necessity to fly the Syrian-Jordanian border hoping that neither side fires at them despite the heavy probability both would attempt to down Israeli aircraft. Then there is always the option which the Israelis have proven to be very adept at implementing, namely knocking the radar and anti-aircraft facilities offline and down while the Israelis fly low and fast across the airspace. This was exactly how they took out Saddam Hussein’s reactor and ending his nuclear dreams and how they bombed the Iranian and North Korean reactor being built in Syria right before they were to install the core making the site highly radioactive and thus unsuitable to bomb without contaminating the entire area. The impending core instillation was the deciding factor which forced Israel to act to avoid any nuclear contamination from their strike. Still, taking out the nuclear facilities within Iran would be a difficult task for even the United States and near impossible for Israel. Further, should Iran detect Israeli missiles coming from Israel, even if Israel assured the Iranian leaders that they carried merely conventional warheads, the Iranians would assume Israel was launching nuclear weapons and would respond with their nuclear tipped missiles. There will be those who will claim that Iran does not have warheads of a nuclear nature. Where that assessment may be valid for thermonuclear warheads, and we suspect even that is a false assumption, they most assuredly have simple atomic bombs which would be sufficient to destroy all of Israel, it is that size thing again. Iran would respond with weapons of mass destructions (WMD), both nuclear and chemical weapons, which would be the Israeli response to the Iranian firing missiles at Israel. Either nation would have a few minutes, say about fifteen to twenty, to decide on their means of desired response to any attack by the other. This is exactly what makes any confrontation between Iran and Israel; both nuclear powers as far as we are concerned, so vital that it be avoided as the resultant damage to both nations and the region would be incalculable. Israel would be decimated if even merely three such weapons hit home while Iran would also face extreme losses as Tehran and the nuclear facilities would all have become wastelands as well, not to mention likely Qom plus the known nuclear facilities located near Karadzic, Arak, Natanz, Isfahan and Bushehr.

 

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

Distance Between Israel and Iran Plus Nuclear Sites and Size Comparison

 

Fortunately, Russia wants no part in any greater war than the one they already regret. This means that Iran would be tempting losing the Russian assistance in Syria by attacking Israel from within the Syrian battlefield. Granted, the Iranians are probably perfectly well capable of picking up any slack caused by a Russian departure and such might even work eventually to the Iranian’s favor. Still, Iran would likely be far more comfortable losing Russian aircraft and pilots rather than their own. The Syrian fighting has already taken a toll on Hezballah and the Iranians will need to remain in Syria and nation-build, something the Americans know all too well the cost for doing such. The rebuilding of Syria will be expensive and if the Europeans are smart, then they will not volunteer or take contracts to assist in rebuilding Syria and instead force Iran to foot the bill as well as accomplish such a task, but that may just be too much to ask of the Europeans. They have shown a propensity to aid Iran in almost every way possible especially with modernizing much of Iran with the monies Iran received from the Obama administration. With Russia stationed in Syria, this may be the sobering influence which will keep the lid on the bottle for the time being. Still, Israel need prepare for that day when the sky will fill with rockets and missiles and the Air Force and Ground forces will need to react quickly and neutralize all of the assets in Lebanon for starters. After that, there will be an even higher likelihood of the IRGC mounting an attack from Syria and even potentially Jordan as the Iranian forces could attempt almost anything for an advantage. Israel should think about ways to prevent such from ever coming to fruition. Assisting clandestinely, of course, regime change in Iran by first freeing the political prisoners in Evin Prison and thus supercharging the resistance to the Mullocracy, a resistance which is building despite or because of the efforts to suppress the people’s freedoms. Freedom, once tasted by the Persians, was something which remained in their spirit that Islam was unable to extinguish. That might be the secret weapon for ending the Ayatollah’s curse on Iran, once the mighty Persian Empire with a solid and forgiving religion of Zoroastrianism, often thought to be the birthing place for many other religions including Judaism. Zoroastrianism is one of a very few religions even older than Judaism as it dates back to the times of Abraham and through the times of Moses, Joshua, the Israelites and was there in the background during the Purim story times and still has its few but dedicated minority. Perhaps that is the answer in Iran, a return to sanity and their Zoroastrianistic roots. Then Iran and Israel can share the relations they had before President Carter poisoned Iran with the Ayatollahs and the Mullocracy. That would end the funding for Hezballah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas as well as decommission of the IRGC. That would permit freedom to come to Iraq though that might be a hard sell. Whatever it would result in being, such a return by the Persian People would be a grand win for the powers of freedom and liberty.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

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