Beyond the Cusp

March 21, 2017

Syria Attempting to Broaden War Threatening Israel

 

Israel sent her warplanes into Syria this past weekend in order to intercept yet another attempted shipment of weapons potentially including advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon arming further the Hezballah terrorists who rule the Bekaa Valley and most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Hezballah has already taken control of most of Lebanon and has indirect, more like reviewing rights of any actions or laws, of the Lebanese government, an improvement of sorts over the direct rule they held a few years back. Apparently trying to rule and fight wars with Israel was taking too great a threat of Israel holding Lebanon responsible. Now Lebanon has been afforded plausible deniable for Hezballah military actions which has not helped much with the events across the border and within their borders with Syria. The length of the reach by Hezballah included their required approval of choice for the new Prime Minister when the new government was formed. Full display of both Lebanon’s difficulty and the threat to Israel are obvious in the map below. Syria will try to drag Israel into the war once again so they can claim to be fighting a holy war against the Zionist entity and will use all of Hezballah’s abilities if need be to accomplish this. That makes the weapons Hezballah already possess and any they are able to smuggle all the more important and why Israel must prevent certain weapons systems of ever being smuggled into Lebanon and to Hezballah forces there. That was the reason for the raid and why there may be more in the future with each one presenting the same difficulties.

 

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon
Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

 

Israeli sources including Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman reported the raid was a success and that all planes returned and were undamaged. The Syrians reported things differently claiming to have shot down one Israel aircraft and damaging another. No pictures of the destroyed Israeli plane were provided to back the Syrian claims and they have made similar claims on previous occasions including once against American aircraft under President Obama’s brief attempt at a Syrian campaign against Islamic State. The Syrians also fired four missiles into Israel with one being intercepted by the Arrow III system which was the first real world use of the system which operated well in all aspects. The remaining three landed in open areas, two in the Israel area of the Jordan Valley and the final one landed in Jordan reportedly causing no damage or loss of life. The attempt by Syria to provide their Hezballah ally with rockets is far from new and Israel has taken to only intercepting weapon systems which would provide Hezballah with additional capabilities with the most serious being anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. The Iranians have been attempting to provide the Hezballah terrorists with the Chinese C803 anti-ship missiles as well as SAM missile batteries of a more advanced series than those in the Bekaa Valley already. This probably requires an update on the extent to which Hezballah has been rearmed since the United Nations, United States and European Union guaranteed after the Second Lebanon War as part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the doubling the size of the UNIFIL forces who were assigned to prevent Hezballah from rebuilding their tunnel and bunker systems and rearming with rockets, let alone missiles.

 

The UNIFIL forces have been photographed allowing and even assisting in loading their trucks to move Hezballah munitions, armaments, rockets and personnel around in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, the area where they are presumably tasked to prevent Hezballah from accomplishing such minor details. Hezballah had completely restructured their tunnel systems, underground bunkers, and massively extended these systems and improved their command and control as well as their communications systems and networks. This will have massive positive effect on their abilities and lethality should there ever be a need for Israel to attempt to blunt their threat to Israeli existence. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezballah was suspected of having stocks reaching as high as thirty-five-thousand rockets of which a very small percentage were of the larger varieties able of reaching beyond Haifa and even fewer which had any guidance whatsoever. This had vastly changed. Their current armaments include tens of thousands of missiles with ranges reaching the entire length of Israel carrying as high as five-hundred kilo warheads which also makes the nuclear arms capable. The various names are easy to remember and they are with their range, diameter and payloads as follows:

Katyusha approx. 132mm diameter range 10 kilometer with a 5 kg payloads
FAJR-3 approx. 240mm diameter range of 43 kilometer with a 45 kg payload
FAJR-5 approx. 233mm diameter range of 75 kilometer with a 175 kg payload
Fateh-110/M-600 approx. 0.61 m diameter range of 300 kilometer with a 500-650 kg payload
Zelzal-2 approx. 610 mm diameter range of 210 kilometer with a 600 kg payload
SKUD-D approx. 0.88 m diameter range of 700 kilometer with a 1000 kg payload

The map below indicates the ranges as they pertain to Israel and the danger becomes evident, very evident. This is one of many reasons that Israel has developed the world’s most advanced layered missile defense systems and is working on secondary and triple level means of intercepting all varieties of indirect weaponry including missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars. Israelis are thankful as many lives have been saved and apparently more will need these systems in the future, which is unfortunate.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah has not just tens of thousands of rockets and missiles but somewhere approaching two-hundred-thousand of varying sizes and capabilities. Additionally, there have been reports that through captured weaponry from various Syrian rebel groups that Hezballah has come into possession of a limited number of American MANPAD anti-aircraft weapons as well as similar systems designed from Russian and Chinese types of anti-aircraft weapons of a similar nature. These anti-aircraft and any anti-ship missiles which the Iranians have managed to provide to Hezballah are amongst the most dangerous should another war break out. The last war already provided ample indications that Hezballah has received numerous effective anti-tank rockets and have developed very effective tactics for their deployment. This was one area which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) needed to develop some form of countermeasures. The greatest threat is to the Israeli public as Hezballah’s numbers of missiles are sufficient to use for swarm attacks as they can lose large numbers to interception providing they are able to get some percentage through the Israeli defenses. The numbers of missiles makes air superiority a necessity which is why Israel cannot allow large numbers or advanced air defenses to be provided to Hezballah as only through air superiority can Israel successfully destroy the stores of missiles and their launchers before they are sent in numbers over Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beersheba and numerous others.

 

The difference between Hezballah and Israel is a familiar one but still important to mention while we are on the subject. First, Hezballah uses identical tactics as does Hamas and will the PLO, which is to say the Palestinian Authority when they decide they have gained all they can through blackmail and using the world to demand Israel kowtow to demands for their surrender and return to their terrorist ways, which means firing from behind the people they claim to protect while Israel does everything possible to protect civilians, both Israeli and Palestinians. Hezballah has placed their rocket launchers inside civilian homes and place their command bunkers under hospitals, schools and even Mosques. They defend their positions using civilians and store their weapons and rockets in civilian’s homes, Mosques and schools. Hezballah builds tunnels and bunkers in which they secure their fighters and civilians are forced to remain on the surface usually near Hezballah fighter locations. Further, Hezballah uses villages and towns as their operations centers and builds fighting positions within these locations often people’s homes, schools and other public locations. The Hezballah tactic is to maximize civilian deaths, hardships and destruction of civilian structures all such that at the end of the conflict they can show this destruction to the media as proof of Israel offenses claiming the Israelis simply attacked civilian homes and structures out of spite and not because of their being used as military enforcements. Often the media can tell the claims are bogus as they can see the fortifications and still take their photographs using such angles so as to avoid displaying the fortifications while maximizing the obvious damage. Often the media has their photos and stories edited by Hezballah and in order to be permitted to return and cover future events each media outlet is required to follow the Hezballah story otherwise their entire news service will be barred from covering anything in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel the media is permitted complete freedom and is free from any forms of censorship whatsoever which is why often the bad stories come out about Israel while Israeli enemies always get star treatment by the media. Israel suffers from the identical media difficulty that the United States also faces with total freedom of the media. When you have no operational control over the media and their stories and your enemy exercises total media control and is willing to lie and the media willingly follows along with their messages, it should be no surprise that Israel has the media difficulty.

 

The final warping of the media coverage is the often result in civilian casualties between Israel and her enemies. The extensive efforts that Israel goes to in order to keep its civilians protected, its enemies all spend seemingly an equal amount of effort to maximize the destruction of civilian structures and the numbers of dead and injured civilians they are able to produce. This leads to a high civilian casualty count while Israel often suffers minimal civilian deaths and casualties. Israelis are well trained and are conscious of the closest shelter when there is a war and are willing to drop anything including prayers to head to their closest shelter. Israel’s enemy governments and terror forces consider shelters as a waste of resources which could be better used to purchase weapons. This leads to a civilian casualty count in Israel often approaching zero while her enemies who place their fighting forces and weapons stores and rocket tubes within civilian homes and use civilians as human shields suffer civilian casualties in the tens, hundreds or unfortunately thousands. Still, it has been shown and witnessed that Israel does far more than any other military to protect and avoid civilian casualties on either side even to the point of calling off strikes to avoid civilian casualties even when the civilians have voluntarily gathered to protect terrorists. The IDF is amongst, if not the, most moral military in all history. Don’t take our word for it; listen to Colonel Richard Kemp in the video below giving evidence to the United Nations.

 

 

An example came when the IDF had three terrorist leaders holed up in a Mosque in Gaza. The IDF troops refused to enter the Mosque as this is something they avoid out of respect for a house of worship (you never want to see what Israel’s enemies do to captured Synagogues). Hamas radio called for women to rush to the Mosque with some extra burkas and within minute’s two dozen women in burkas and some carrying burkas entered the Mosque. Soon afterwards, the women left the Mosque as a mob hiding the three terrorists wearing burkas somewhere in the group. The IDF officer ordered his men to simply leave as the alternative would have been unthinkable for IDF soldiers to potentially appear to accost Muslim women.

 

In conclusion, the problem facing Israel also involves Russia as the ally and enforcement arm of Syria. Israel coordinates with the Russian commanders before sending any aircraft into Syrian airspace such that Russian and Israeli aircraft are not in conflict. Thus far, by all information, the Russians have not been sharing such information with the Syrians intentionally but there is obviously some leakage. When Bashir al-Assad’s military commanders receive hints or information of an imminent Israeli strike they inform their militias and other unattached forces who have been armed and often actually are Hezballah and receiving support directly from Iran. Syria would love to open a front against Israel in the hopes of internationalizing the war and bringing it before the United Nations General Assembly where Israel will be once again denounced. The end result will be a front opened across the Golan Heights with Hezballah attacking from the Israeli northern border backed by the Lebanese Army which is American armed including tanks and aircraft. As they have already been given these arms, the merging of the Lebanese Army with Hezballah being placed under their control, Israel may be facing the combined forces of Hezballah, Lebanon, Syrians and presumably independent militias all of which are backed by Russia. Russia is not in any means taking action against Israel and with Iran gathering forces and aligning forces under a unified command group independent of the Russians, is going to put Putin into a delicate position. When these forces finally open a full force assault upon Israel in an attempt to bring things before the United Nations where Israel will be blamed for initiating the violence and this will place Russia in the position of deciding whether to pull out of Syria demanding that their port facilities in Latakia as Russian protected territory and otherwise Russian forces will stand down and release Syria to its fate or Russia continuing to back Syria and very possibly be drawn into a war with Israel. Should Russia engage Israeli forces, be it on the Golan Heights or against aircraft in Syrian or Lebanese territories, then what does the United States do and NATO and the United Nations. There is a distinct possibility that the United States will use these events to press Israel into making a crippling series of concessions to Abbas giving him his state with the Green Line as a border as a prerequisite for continued aid while facing the war on the Israeli north against Syria, Lebanon, Hezballah, and full Russian assistance and Iran who will also add another front at some point using Hamas on the Israeli southern border along Gaza and with aid of militias along the Sinai-Negev front. This would soon include the Palestinian Authority as Abbas would be overthrown immediately after the forced peace and the withdrawal of the IDF either by ISIS or Hamas bringing this as well as the final front. This could lead to Israel fighting a war with fronts on all borders even to include the Mediterranean Sea leaving Israel in a desperate war for her existence and Israel would at best finally establish her borders as the Jordan River and hold the southern borders while establishing the Litani River and Golan Heights as their northern border and end these wars by establishing defendable borders with the downside of the entire nations requiring the rebuilding of her entire infrastructure. It would take Israel over a decade to rebuild but once the restructure has been completed, Israel would be the envy of the world when it comes to infrastructure and the Third Temple would be constructed and the Arabs who are unwilling to live supporting the Jewish State deported and finally a bright future before her.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

March 19, 2017

Why the World is Poised to Die

 

The world is precariously teetering on the very brink of oblivion. The reasons are a collection of small offences most barely registering as merely a small paper cut but still the world is bleeding from millions upon millions of paper cuts and thin slices from a blade as sharp as a surgeon’s scalpel. Many of these cuts were inflicted early in many a child’s life and they, like a hemophiliac, cannot deter the flow as these effects continue and can only worsen as life continues and demands more from every individual. The spring-force of the initial cuts begin with their early education. Way back when we attended public schools, teachers either chose the profession because they were dedicated to instructing young minds and took great pride when any student from their classes shone forth later in life and even more so should that student mention teachers without name who were the fountain that began their quest which led to their accomplishment. The rare teacher who gets actually named was often slightly embarrassed and would deflect the honor demanding it was shared with their fellow teachers. The teachers never gave going on strike for higher paychecks as denying the children even an hour of their best efforts was beyond their mindsets. These were dedicated individuals. Some of our teachers were conservative and may have even been (gasp) Republicans. I had one teacher who drove a different Cadillac to school each day with hardtops in the winter and convertibles in the spring and I learned later in life that he owned a summer camp for children which stood on a few hundred or so acres of woodlands which he owned. He was a rather wealthy man who had other incomes and never needed to teach or even have the summer camp but he loved children in a healthy way and just enjoyed watching them thrill at accomplishment or just fun. Teachers’ highest desire was to have students achieve in which they would take quiet pride and use it to have them strive to do even more. We never heard a teacher complain about their pay level or over a student who was difficult. Of course it was also when a teacher could strike a child in their class as a form of discipline. If your teacher had struck you, once and never very sharply, it was something you prayed your parents never heard of it as they would add their own corporal punishment which was always far harsher than the teacher.

 

But the failing education system is just one aspect of the threat. Another threat is the destabilization of large segments of the world. The greatest areas currently are within the Middle East, Northern Africa (MENA) as well as the Horn of Africa. These are areas caught in seemingly unending wars and in many instances one side is backed by either Iran or Islamist terrorist forces such as Boko Haram, al-Qaeda, ISIS (Islamic State) or criminal elements such as the pirates found off of Somalia. The three main wars are found in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Additionally there are nations caught in economic collapse or extreme poverty often due to economic policies which failed disastrously. Such nations include North Korea, Venezuela and Somalia. These nations suffer from starvation and deprivations beyond belief by most of us for which we should feel very grateful. The people stuck in these nations whether suffering unending destruction from wars or economic collapse cannot have any part of a normal life. These destabilized regions are capable of impacting beyond their borders through massive refugees straining the economies of neighboring countries to the point where if their economy is not sufficient to support the influx, their economy can also collapse from the pressures. Other problems can come from massive influx of refugees from one set of customs, conventions, systems or acceptable comportment. These strains on the societal fabric can be just as destructive as financial pressures can be on an economy. Put the two together and the result is often violence as the two clashing societal standards make for such systemic shock that the refugees generate a level of unacceptance that it becomes threatening to the existing native populations. The most visible of these threats currently is manifested in Europe where the refugees from the problems tearing through the MENA states and the Horn of Africa plus Afghanistan and Pakistan (and even Turkey) have been flooding Europe and the threat of similar influx into the United States was what influenced President Donald Trump to do exactly as he promised during the campaign and invoked an end to accepting immigrants from seven MENA nations, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen. We are not about to get into the legality or morality of the ban insisted upon by President Trump, we are just recognizing that President Trump was simply reacting to these forces in discussion without caring about the particulars of law and ethics, just the effect, which was to preserve societal calm and, as stated, decrease the likelihood for terrorists to enter the United States along with the refugees from nations where checks of any kind were difficult if not impossible. Every one of the mentioned nations is in some form of distress with no real and functioning governance. That is the recipe from areas of disasters and importing disasters is often not a good policy.

 

Further, we are experiencing a challenge to the Judeo-Christian ethics which has guided the Western World for much, if not all, of the last few centuries. This challenge is coming from the Islamic world and Islam. Once before there was a fear of cultural invasion when there was a sizeable influx of Chinese and other Orientals largely to assist in building the railroads. These Orientals were mostly Buddhists and also brought with them opium as part of their social habits and because there were those in the United States who were making quite a profit from the sale of opium and its derivatives. Where there was some disruption, especially the opium influence, it was short-lived and limited in its scope. Even this was dispersed and dissipated as their influence spread as the railroad extended eastward, their numbers became lessened as a percentage of the general population at any location beyond San Francisco. The city was of sufficient population size to absorb the Chinese who remained largely within their small area which today is still known as Chinatown, and became a tourist attraction and the place of a thousand Chinese restaurants. The United States survived that influx as these immigrants stayed to themselves and with time acclimated to Americanism. There were numerous immigrant waves subsequent almost all from Europe. The Italians, Germans, Irish, and with each group they faced discrimination as they learned the language and customs, which were quite different than Europe but the religious customs were familiar. With time they all became Americans and there were few problems with these groups. The next influx of refugees which had only a cursory introduction to America were from Viet Nam. These particular refugees were eager to learn and become fully American as they were fleeing the Communist takeover of their nation and saw the United States as their saving grace.

 

These experiences would lead one to believe that the United States would be capable of making Americans out of any refugees. What need be made clear is that in each of these groups were not so much Americanized by the people of the United States as much as these refugees desired to become Americans. One might then posit that the same would hold for the Islamic communities given time. The only metric we have for measuring this has been the refugees and their incorporating into European society. If this is the only measure, then there is a problem as the Muslims have fallen into two distinct groups, those willing to become more European and those demanding that Europe become Islamic. Let this be made clear, they are not demanding that Europeans become accommodating and accepting of Muslims but rather that the Europeans must submit to Islam and make Islam the main faith superior to all others and that the Muslims should govern all of Europe. They further threaten war and terrorism should they not be accommodated completely and all their demands met. Directly proportional to their increased presence sexual predation of women has directly increased, terrorism has increased only lagging slightly behind the numbers and crime in general has increased also proportionally.

 

There are those who have claimed that these increases have not been seen in the United States. That may be the case but then the United States has also not seen the same increase in percentages as has many nations in Europe. Further, the nations with the least percentage increase of Muslims have seen little if any increase in their criminal numbers while the nations with the greatest increases in percentage of Muslims have had notable increases in some cases leading to blowback from their native populations. In the United States it should be noted that there are areas where Muslims have taken control of entire neighborhoods and made them fairly inhibiting to non-Muslims and uncomfortable for those non-Muslims who have refused to leave their homes for whatever reason. Those who had fled these neighborhoods often claimed the Muslims had destroyed their formerly peaceful neighborhood. One example is Hamtramck, near Detroit, Michigan. There are also Islamic only camps where they hold military style training and place armed guards at the front gates denying even law enforcement from entering. One such location in New York is the hamlet of Islamberg neighboring the Town of Hancock, New York and located 145 miles northwest of New York City. Muslims who have come to the United States over the years have all blended in well. Statistics show that there are two groups of Muslims where this is becoming far less the case. Where the most recent refugees were as high as fifteen percent which may have terror ties according to some reports and a mere five percent by more moderate assessments, either could become a problem as their numbers increase which is why vetting becomes important. Even vetting will not prevent the second, a ticking time bomb, as the children of Muslims are more likely to become radicalized than their parents were, especially disaffected teens looking for meaning in their lives making them targets for the radicalizers to prey upon. Also more likely to become radicalized are converts who often adopt the most radical forms of the religion. All of these require more careful vigilance which was what was once said and attributed to many, including Thomas Jefferson but never proven, there is the admonition that, “Eternal vigilance is the price of liberty.” Perhaps this is the solution, this and a good vetting system and an engaged public in elections and the education of the children, the most precious resource we have.

 

Burning Israel Star of David

 

There will be a final sign when the world is about to change and enter one of its darkest periods in all of its history. That sign is one that people are screaming hysterically will be brought forth because the President is Donald Trump, but that is not the case. This event will occur under a President who will more than likely have received over three-quarters of the American Jewish vote. This President and the supportive Congress, which will be of the same party, will have had overwhelming support from many Jewish agencies and groups such as the Central Conference of American Rabbis, the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations and the Anti-Defamation League but will likely be opposed by the Zionist Organization of America. This President and his Congress will force through laws which will seem appropriate for the time and will be claimed are not targeting Jews as they slowly pass laws which conflict with Torah observance in the name of public safety. Eventually this government will allow the expulsion of Jews from the Universities and then their refusal to be licensed and licensing revoked to practice law and then medicine and slowly draw the noose around the Jews necks. All the while there will be prominent Rabbis who will make excuses for these moves against the Jews finding some absurdity to keep the majority of Jews sleeping as to do otherwise might cost them their reputation as a good left leaning liberal. Will Jews be placed in camps at some point? Probably not as they will slowly be forced from any position other than the most marginal in the public and the whole while they will continue to vote for those who favor these restrictions because that will be considered the right thing to do. Eventually, any Jew with an ounce of self-respect and love of Torah will leave the United States and travel to the lone nation where Jews are permitted, Israel. The Jews remaining in the United States will continue blaming Israel for their woes and never blink in taking every opportunity to protest Israel as the source of their problems, and not leadership like the current leadership in the Democrat Party. I do not need to name names as we have done so before but what I will point to is the actions of Jews currently who after voting for Hillary and then turning on President Trump and labelling him as an anti-Semite which is just the perfect example of what we are referring to as Hillary was the one who would have tried to destroy Israel and bring in as many Jew-hating people as humanly possible in the hopes of empowering the Democrat Party with new strength built on the prospect of crushing Israel and the Jews. The inability of the American leftist Jews to see what is plainly before their eyes bodes poorly and is the very reason that this future is all but guaranteed. It is so very sad and we wish it were not so, but just look at the actions of the ADL during these acts and threats against Jewish institutions and see where they fall should one of the people found for making these threats turns out to be a leftist, they will rush to their defense. That is why we fear the Jews will vote for their own persecution and ignite the End of American Freedom and bring about the End of American Exceptionalism.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

November 19, 2016

Islamic Hierarchy Should be the Target as Well as ISIS

 

Is Islamic State (ISIS, ISIL or al-Qaeda offshoot) honestly that horrific a threat and challenge that it should be treated as an individual threat needing a solution before any further assessment can be conducted? If you were to make this an inquiry of the United States State Department, they would answer in the affirmative and probably make Islamic State the sole terror threat requiring attention. Pose this same question to the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs of Staff and their answer would place Islamic State as the immediate threat but would follow that up with a litany of other threats hiding in the background, in the darkest of recesses. So, which assessment is the most accurate and which should be utilized to address future actions. Obviously the Pentagon assessment is more in depth while the State Department takes a mere cursory glance seeking the least invasive path and the least need for involvement having a minimal footprint. This demands further explanation more as to why the Pentagon explains a path which is far deeper and requiring greater invasive solutions and the State Department leaves most of the problem unaddressed and untouched. The reasons are simple and would be obvious to any observers. The Pentagon is funded by the width, depth and breadth of a threat and gains funding and importance through greater involvement. The State Department gains funds by having obscured threats which it can assign staff to investigate and report threats in such a manner as to allow them to linger, requiring greater inspections over the longest time frame. Thus any military assessment should be judged knowing their report will make the threat the greatest potential possible while State Department assessment should be realized to define the situation calling for minimal involvement in order to preserve the situational threat generating further investigations. The best path would more often than not be somewhere between the two assessments.

 

So, what do these realities have to do with Islamic State? A fair analogy would be somebody waking one morning feeling poorly and upon looking in the mirror they notice there are red blotches all over their face and further checking they find more such red blotches all over their bodies. Reacting to these skin lesions they make an appointment with a physician. The question becomes what type of physician they should call. The initial assessment is the patient has a skin condition so they might make an appointment to visit a Dermatologist and treat the skin ailment while ignoring the underlying disease. The result is the patient will remain ill and would need visit the dermatologist repeatedly while if they had visited an Internal Medicine Doctor they quite possibly would have been admitted to a hospital and undergo a more rigorous cure than they would receive from a Dermatologist but would also be cured. Simply put, if you have the measles you do not visit a dermatologist, you visit a doctor of Internal Medicine. The State Department is the Dermatologist and the Internal Medicine Physician would represent the Military. So, the military will present a harder path with the greatest potential challenges you will be presented with and some painful choices need to be made. The State Department provides for a simple and immediate repair of a situation while leaving the underlying problems churning away and no difficult choices would be necessitated. So, the path you choose will likely be somewhere between the two, which one you follow more closely will dictate the level of curative actions and their lasting effects.

 

Making war on Islamic State is a requirement of immediate urgency, President elect Donald Trump will need answer the riddle of how far does he wish to peel back the onion. A fully committed military campaign to destroy Islamic State presence in Syria and Iraq could be executed taking no longer than three or four months. The time it would take would depend on how ruthless and how close to barbarism the military forces will be permitted by their Rules of Engagement (ROE). The obvious problem with such tactic is that such a solution does little to permanently change the situation. When choosing civility while fighting barbarians, one makes leaders and financiers unaffected, they will just wait for the opportunity and start right up anew. The sponsors must be made to pay a price, even to threats on their lives, before anything will change. This was proven in all theaters of World War II where German leaders needed to be hunted down even to the last bunkers in Berlin and the Emperor of Japan had to be convinced the allies could utterly destroy his nation without losing any of their military forces. This has also been proven in the current “War on Terror” where we are treating the rash and ignoring the disease.

 

By now most Westerners realize the problems caused by terrorism and the threat posed by Islamic State. Where many fall down is in linking the two problems and realizing that these two problems though often unrelated directly, both have a root cause and any logistics, funding, know-how or other support for both are derived from the same pool of sponsors. The source for both terrorism and Islamic State come from the various wealthy and powerful governing entities throughout the nations of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) and the infrastructure put in place utilizing the tribal make-up of the society often pitting one tribe against another tribe in order to procure additional power and a broader area from which to operate. Should one trace the cash flowing into the coffers of Islamic State one would see a trend that the same monies also fund the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, al-Qaeda and other Sunni terror masters and their operations. Much of the funding originates in or by those close to the Saudi Royal family as well as graft skimming funds from government funding by Egyptians and other Sunni ruled nations supporting the Sunni, Muslim Brotherhood, forces worldwide. There also exists an extensive Shiite terror networks which is not quite as expansive but still a very real threat. These groups are financed, organized and run by the Iranian government and the Grand Ayatollah (Arabic:آية ‌الله العظمی) and Supreme Leader of Iran. The leadership of these terror forces controlled by Iran starts with the IRGC (Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps) who incorporate the leadership of Hezballah and oft time Hamas as well. The reach by Iran is not as diffused as are the disparate Sunni terror forces. Much of the reason behind this is simply numbers. The Sunni make-up slightly over four-fifths of Muslims worldwide while the Shiites find themselves around a mere 17% of Muslims worldwide thus Shiite power structure by necessity must be more centralized and rigid while the Sunni can easily create anywhere from three to five separate groups.

 

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC

Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC

 

What people in the United States need know is that the current fighting between Islamic derived forces and the Western forces, particularly in and around the Mediterranean Sea is just the latest stage in the war with the Barbary Pirates. Truth be told, the European interests back to around 632 onto the current age have felt constant rumblings of discontent filled by dreams and desires to return to their ages of conquest and swallow Europe as they have tried before only to meet a standoff or complete defeat as was Andalusia, as was Spain. Much of the march of Islam colonizing the entirety of MENA has been accomplished by Sunni though there have been Shia heroes through the ages. Still, this fight to choose the ultimate ruler, the single Caliph who talks the talk but all are curious if one can be found who additionally walks the walk. Despite gaining a sizeable following and demanding he be recognized as Caliph, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will not become the Caliph restoring the Caliphate as the requirement is a vast stretch of lands which are individually owned and most have real air power which would decimate any ground assault not possessing sufficient air cover, something which likely plagues al-Baghdadi day and night and he likely dreams of having sufficient fighters and the people to launch adequate air support. The Arab and Islamic worlds are far too tribal and fragmented each refusing to particularly perform feats of great valor and have somebody outside your team ending up with all of the glory. The tribal overriding thought power need be abandoned should Islam ever desire to become great again and have yet a second sense of glory and accomplishment. Such an accomplishment will take a true Caliph, one such as the last Imam, the one who leads the final conquests leading to an Islamic World running under Sharia, the Islamic Code of Laws as preached by Mohammad and the original force.

 

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

Expansion of Islam Across MENA and into Europe before Ottoman Rule

 

There are realities which must be faced and faced immediately. Before there can be progress the new President already has a large pair of conflagrations he need work out a solution which will probably require a fair number of military service personnel. A President Trump must use all the forces at his disposal in order to remove Islamic State from the picture. After this has been accomplished the next task will be forming a governance or set of governances such that Libya becomes a normative entity capable of trade with the world which will bring wealth to these governing bodies and the people as well. Once Libya has been resolved and returned to viability it will become time to deal with Russia and do similar for Syria. Russia will press for the entire area be returned to Bashir al-Assad while the remaining “rebel” forces will protest loudly and just as vehemently as they have all along. Meanwhile, a refuge for the Kurdish population will necessarily be needed while Turkey and her President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, are edging towards conquest and taking lands formerly belonging to both Syria, a lifelong enemy, and Iraq, whose Saddam Hussein had stashed thousands of barrels of nerve agent and other chemical and nuclear weaponry in an attempt to evade justice. Erdoğan’s hopes and dreams of reestablishing the Ottoman Empire will be muted. Once again all these solutions do little to nothing about remedies for the tribal alliances and primitive culture which keeps the nations of MENA suffering while other nations quite distant as in the Horn of Africa and as far east as Pakistan and Afghanistan are all experiencing national traumas from forces at the tribal area. These problems were exasperated by the imposition of the Sikes-Picot Agreement of 1916 which set arbitrary borders, making self-rule all but impossible. Sikes-Picot ignored tribal alliances and clan structures splitting these entities between three nations in some cases and two at others which simply added wood to the fire. Sikes-Picot also redrew the maps of Eastern Europe breaking up the Austria-Hungarian Empire. All of this eventually led to World War II and has set in motion the potential for a third shooting war, World War III. The problem is amplified with the knowledge that Eastern Europe is also facing economic distress along with threats from Russia to incorporate them back under soviet style land and they wish to remain free.

 

These areas are powder kegs just waiting for the fire from a mistakenly tossed match or misread of any situation to have the entirety of these places to sheepishly huddle under Russian wings. The United States lack of influence throughout the MENA area as well as the entirety of the globe for the last eight years has left foreign policy in such turmoil as to provide room for threats from all sides and levels. The world, and the United States and allies in particular, are facing an invigorated Russia, a China willing to manufacture Islands in order to further their goal of taking certain Islands which they claim as have other nations. These threats are backed by a new and proficient fleet China is building, a worthy blue-water fleet. Add to this the dual threat of a nuclear armed North Korea who has already developed and tested a number of nuclear warheads and appears to be attempting to manufacture an EMP device to knock out the power grid in North America thus neutering the United States military and causing widespread death. Along with North Korea we also will be facing a nuclear armed Iran who has the missiles with advanced guidance and range capabilities with which to deliver them. Once Iran is confirmed to have nuclear weapons one can safely assume that Saudi Arabia will call in their markers for their financing of the Pakistani bomb thus instantly becoming a nuclear armed nation as well. After this the proliferation across all of MENA will likely occur with blinding speed. From that point the rest of the world will be rapidly acquiring nuclear weapons and from there to annihilation of the human race is a short trip and it all might take place in a blink of an eye. It is truly sobering realizing how so very close we are from slipping beyond the cusp into a reality even Hollywood was unable to imitate believably.

 

The race now is to educate and bring the third world somewhere even with the advanced world. By this we mean to teach them from our mistakes such that the world benefits. These newly acquired nuclear capabilities must be impressed not to use them for the sake of humanity. At the same time the world need share its many secrets and the desire to go into space beyond just the solar system but to other star systems even beyond our cluster setting out to truly become a space-born people. That need be our goal if we plan on being a long lived species. I guess we will soon know if the Earth will become the origin of a truly enlightened space based society or will the Earth need await the next great catastrophe to rid it of a stagnant humanity so another intelligence reaches senescence and go off into space and be the long lived Earth born species.

 

Beyond the Cusp 

 

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