It is well known that Iran is behind the Houthis in Yemen, Hezballah have virtual control over the Baca Valley, South Beirut and the lands south of the Litani River giving Iran control over Lebanon and Iran had taken command of the forces against ISIS in Iraq officially claiming the lands in the southern and eventually central areas of Iraq ceding the northern areas to Kurdish rule allowing the formation of Kurdistan with their accepting that Iran was the Islamic nation which saved them from ISIS and thus being indebted to Iran. Assad will prove victorious winning a Pyrrhic victory allowing him to rule over a shell of a nation. Things will be in such complete ruin that Assad will even need to relocate the capital as Damascus (Arabic: دمشق ) will have become uninhabitable. The reason for this sorry situation will be due to Assad having fled the Capital, Damascus, for the Alawite, also known as Alawis (Arabic: علوية ), regions after baiting his enemies by stating that he was determined to join the fighting, if that proved necessary, making all the forces against Assad to gather and unite to make that final push into the heart of Damascus for the final battle for Syria. Almost all of the troops will be involved in this assault and they will meet with strong resistance but inevitably they will appear to be mere moments from winning their final victory over Assad when the trap will be sprung and a series of prepositioned substantial nuclear weapons will end all resistance in a matter of seconds and turning Damascus into a radioactive wastelands. This will force Assad in his Alawite enclave to be setting up the new Capital City from which to declare his victory and naming the new Capital City of Syria most likely the home city of the Assad family, Qardaha (Arabic: قرداحة), or possible Idlib or Aleppo if Shiite forces can become predominant in either of those two cities. While this definitive ending of the war in Syria will be followed by the defeat of the remnants of ISIS in Iraq as ISIS forces from Iraq will have been pulled to assist in the final assault into Damascus as victory there will be determined by all forces fighting Assad to be of sufficient importance that they lay aside their differences and for that one time fighting together with each group retaining command of their forces thus making taking the government stronghold in central Damascus a race to see whose flag will be raised over the Syrian capital city. The resulting truth will prove to be that nobody’s flag will be raised over the city as Damascus will have been made inhabitable.
After the detonation of the nuclear weapons and the dropping of a series of tactical nuclear weapons around the suburbs of Damascus taking out the command and control centers and the leadership which inhabited them monitoring the progress of the many varied forces who had just been eliminated in a singularly greatest conflagration in the history of the Middle East, there will follow a series of condemnations from numerous nations as well as the alphabet soup of alliances such as EU and NATO as well as by the United Nations and its numerous individual fiefdoms and especially by the Security Council. Amazingly, despite the carnage resulting from the second tactical use of a series of nuclear weapons being detonated in the ending a conflict, the first being the United States use of nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end the War with Japan and with that the end of World War II, there will result no denunciation of Iran or Syrian Dictator Bashir Assad by the General Assembly. It will seemingly be a reaction by the majority of the member states of the General Assembly to the drastic measures utilized in Syria and the devastating results that they will shrink before such a complete breakdown of normative thought that there will be no need for any condemnation plus with Iran along with their allies and made clear their intentions to vote against any resolution feeling none was necessary due to their having learned and knowing there was a hard and difficult road ahead, they will decide to decline to support any condemnation in the General Assembly.
Most of the world and almost all in the western world will depict this fairly extensive use of nuclear weapons as being a one-time event not ever likely to be repeated. It will be then that the unseen weapon, the Iranian secret weapon, will begin to assert itself. It will begin in Egypt where the Shiite candidates win a fairly significant number of parliamentary seats. Many of these victories will prove to be the forewarning of coming changes in the distribution as slowly at first and then with less excuses and more bravado individuals, then families and lastly entire clans or towns were trading in their long histories with Sunni religious branch of Islam and starting to freely claim their allegiance to Shiite branch of Islam. As this phenomenon starts in the Sunni majority areas, the initial reactions will be complete surprise followed by denial and even violence against those announcing their intention in some locations. With time the numbers of Sunni adopting Shiite Islamic practice will become more accepted and even anticipated. What no one expected would be the result starts to creep into the consciousness of some Imams and leaders as they realize their nations or those attending their mosques had become sufficiently Shia that they demanded that Shia services be provided. This will lead to the next stage where many Imams along with their congregations announce or simply quietly adopt the Shia form of Islam. This will be true whenever the majority of the congregants and the neighborhoods they serve were becoming Shiite and it became the only manner for them to continue to serve their communities providing them with the leadership they were seeking. Currently, according to some, there is a core of people in Muslim nations across MENA (Middle East and Northern Africa) which is gaining momentum of Muslims privately practicing Shia Islam while continuing to appear to be actively practicing Sunni Islam. This shift of the balance of power from Sunni Islam being predominant to Shia Islam and it is uncertain as to how far this change has progressed.
There is already a pushback against the overt Iranian backed effort to encircle Saudi Arabia as the Saudis have intervened against the Houthis and are attempting to place the government back in Sana’a (Arabic: صنعاء) after it was forced to flee this past week. There are some worried over whether this assault by the Saudi forces will result in their supporting the al-Qaeda forces which are also vying for control in the same area. The problem in Yemen is that there has not been stable governance for quite a while. There is a history of rebellions in the north by the Houthis while al-Qaeda has occupied the southern area with the government sandwiched inbetween the two forces. President Obama had recently pointed to Yemen as a place which represented the outreach and working to support stable governance in the Middle East. Perhaps this was not the best call for him to make. What makes that even more ridiculous a mention is that currently he is doing absolutely nothing to restore the Yemeni government he was so proudly using as the bases of his efforts for stability in the Middle East. If one were to attempt to place President Obama into the Middle East formula it becomes an odd thing to do. President Obama is responsible for the lack of order in Libya after removing the government forces of Gaddafi. The President supported and even touted the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and wasted no time condemning the removal of that government by the Egyptian military when the people began an uprising against the implementation of Sharia Law in Egypt. The President originally supported the rebels in Syria but while he spent precious time seeking the perfect faction to support, the radicalized forces had replaced or defeated most of such forces. This was now an international fight between the two extremist forces, those favoring al-Qaeda and other Sunni terrorist factions such as ISIS, while the other group consists of a Houthis supported by Iran. The real victims in the fighting in Yemen are going to be the people just as was the case in Syria. How far the Iranians are prepared to back the Houthis against the government and the al-Qaeda forces not to mention the United States has a refueling center in Yemen where ships from the fleet could refuel and which is now in the hands of the Iranian backed forces. There has also been an exchange of words between Turkey and Iran. Where such animosity might lead is impossible to predict but animosity between the two nations are high. Saudi Arabia and Egypt recently called for a Sunni Arab International force and the Arab League appears to be ready for the implementation of an all Sunni NATO style alliance of the Sunni nations, largely Saudi Arabia and Egypt as these two nations are the most stable and have the largest armies in the Middle East. Also joining this alliance will be the GCC members plus Jordan. Appearances are that the Middle East is breaking into three main camps, first is the Iranian forces which include Iraq, Hezballah and what remains of Assad in Syria and the Houthis, then there are Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Gulf States and probably any Sunni elements which are not aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood, and thirdly we have the terror forces such as ISIS, al-Qaeda and the tribal forces in Libya which are interested in destabilizing governments and then taking control after compromising the government. The Middle East is becoming more dangerous place than it usually is, and it is well known for its intricate and complex interactions, and on the other hand, Israel has begun to look like the safest and most stable government within the borders of the Arab world surrounding her. That may be the strangest thing of all.
Beyond the Cusp