The Next Super Power Faceoff

 

The world media overlook Iran except in some individuals who are fixated on the Middle East. We almost fit that picture except we also glance towards Europe, Russia and even the United States every so often just because things happen. What most of the world does not realize is that Iranian borders do not stop at Iraq, Syria, the Persian Gulf or Afghanistan. The Iranian borders circumnavigate that and so much more. Iran also includes virtually all of Yemen, Lebanon and soon to include Bahrain, Qatar and heavy cooperation, if not complete incorporation, of Eritrea, Djibouti and parts or use of Somalia and the Sudan. Iran likely had forces hidden away in Gaza where Islamic Jihad and Hamas are allied with Iran as well as forces in the Sinai Peninsula. The probability of Iran deciding that Jordan would make a fortuitous addition to its territory, there would be little Jordanian forces could do to prevent such an occurrence (which is why we included Jordan as part of a Greater Iran). We consistently hear complaints of the devious plans for a Greater Israel. Let us think of that for a moment and compare it with peace loving Iran which was an United States ally for much of the past decade and only recently have things turned somewhat sour. Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in return for a cold peace. Israel returned all of southern Lebanon after rescuing the Christians who were being slaughtered by invading Syrian troops without even receiving any treaty. In return for this Hezballah took control of that territory and Iran has backed them with between one-hundred-thousand and one-hundred-fifty-thousand, if not more, rockets and missiles of all sizes, ranges, payloads and guidance capabilities from ten kilometer range with one kilogram payload and no guidance to missiles which can strike all of Israel and into Egypt, possibly to Cairo, with ten-thousand-kilogram payloads with guidance capable of striking within ten meters of the intended target.

 

Iran, in the meantime has taken control of Iraq as a present from the United States pulling their troops. They have been a great friend to the Syria dictator Bashir al-Assad and with assistance from Russia have assisted Bashir al-Assad to retain his hold on Syria where Iran is building a base for the IRGC* within twenty miles of the Golan Heights and the Israeli border. Lebanon has been controlled by Hezballah who have militarized the southern third of the nation with a system of tunnels and underground bunkers along with the aforementioned rockets and missiles. Additionally, they have artillery pieces similar to the German 88 mm anti-tank artillery. We have one of these pieces as part of a fountain at the main entrance to our home town in Israel as it was captured and had been utilized by Hezballah to shell our town during one of the Hezballah wars. Hezballah is, for intents and purposes, a number of groups of units under the command of the IRGC, the Iranian foreign military command which is a separate but fully capable arm of the Iranian military. The Houthis rebels now control the major cities and ports in Yemen and virtually the entire nation and have lobbed rockets into Saudi Arabia including at Riyadh, the Capital of Saudi Arabia, and have been armed by Iran and aided by the IRGC. Iranian weaponry has been intercepted in the Sudan, Sinai Peninsula crossing into Gaza and in the Mediterranean Sea such as the MV Karine A. Greater Iran is a reality which has been ignored by the world media while Israel, which has surrendered territory for the sake of peace, of striving to engulf the Arab world into a Greater Israel. Greater Iran is the width and breadth and has great similarity to the one nation which currently appears to be in the Iranian crosshairs, the United States. Their areas are comparable and they both command the greater part of the battlefield of a continent and are capable of projecting power over wide areas with missiles which are capable of striking anywhere on the globe and being capable of carrying nuclear payloads to any location and it is believed that Iran, despite the Iranian Nuclear Deal, has been manufacturing nuclear weapons for well over a decade and has mastered the technology for manufacture of thermonuclear devices and Super EMP devices. Below are maps of what could very easily be Greater Iran and the United States should there be a conflict between these adversaries sometime in the next decade, possibly two decades. Hopefully a peaceful solution can be found which will satisfy the hunger of Iran for reestablishing the glory and modern version of the conquests of the Persian Empire. The Persian Empire reached the Grecian Isles, down both coasts of the Saudi Peninsula and as far as Egypt. Their known world was presumed to be quite a bit smaller than the entirety of the globe is today, not to mention, conquering the known world today includes a few nations quite capable of defending themselves such as Russia and China. And as mentioned, there is the United States should Iran attempt to take control of any NATO nations such as Greece and Turkey.

 

The Next Super Power Faceoff

 

Should one listen to the speeches given by the true leader of the Iranian nation, the Grand Ayatollah, Sayyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei (سید علی حسینی خامنه‌ای Persian), one would believe that his ambitions are universal. He envisions an Iranian Shiite Kingdom having complete sovereignty over the entirety of planet Earth. He does not foresee his ruling Iran in that day but that some future Grand Ayatollah after him. He sees such as the will of Allah and thus inevitable. What might ruin this are the visions of Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan who claims his only vision is to take Aleppo, Mosul and the remainder of the Kurdish regions as his effort to reestablish the Ottoman Empire. Then there are the Wahabbists and the Muslim Brotherhood, both of which see themselves at the head of a Sunni Empire of the Earth. One must wonder in such times as these if perchance we will see another attempt by the French to conquer all of Europe including Russia or perhaps the return of the great empires of Europe, Asia, the Americas, Africa and who knows where else. All the while, no matter the realities of the world, the wars flaring, the suffering of humanity in far too many areas and the numerous designs on ruling the world and spreading ones culture over all mankind, the one thing which will remain constant will be the preoccupation of the United Nations and all of its various agencies with the imagined evils of the Jewish State of Israel.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

*IRGC = Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps

 

As If Israel Did Not Have Enough Problems

 

Let us start with the most bizarre of all the problems facing Israel, though this one is easily repaired, simply ignore it and it will wither on the vine, so to speak. This one comes from a nation which once upon a time was a friend to Israel. France sold Israel Mirage Jets through the 1950’s and much of the 1960’s. Those were the days, my friends, but just like the song, they did end. Now France has demanded access to prisoners by insisting for their Parliamentarians to have access to whomever they wish access whenever they are in Israel. Imagine the chutzpah French Foreign Ministry displayed releasing this statement, this audacious demand, upon Israeli authorities Monday stating they would bar entry to the country of a group of French politicians seeking to visit jailed terrorist leader Marwan Barghouti. Their hope was to raise their movement for the release of this terror master and murderer of numerous Israeli civilians so he can replace Mahmoud Abbas as the next leader of the PLO, Palestinian Authority (PA), and Fatah to continue the war to destroy Israel. This is just the most recent face of the European and world efforts to bring to fruition the destruction of Israel.

 

On the Israeli northern border along the Lebanese border (the Blue Line) and the Golan Heights from the Syrian border there lies Hezballah. They have been invigorated with fresh troops from the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and better weaponry direct from Iran are believed to be considering the means by which to calm the suspicions of the Lebanese people that Hezballah is simply using them as a base and are actually servants of Iran and Syria, nothing more. Despite that being the reality which has become obvious even to the most casual of observers, Nasrallah likes his comfortable life in the peaceful hills of Lebanon and believes it would really be a shame if he needed relocate to the burnt hills of Syria. The word has leaked that Nasrallah may be pinning his hopes to calm the rumors in Lebanon by forcing a confrontation with Israel possibly from the Syria border so as to avoid the fighting spilling into Lebanon. The entire concept would be risky as the support for such an assault would almost necessarily need be launched out of Lebanon as that is the location of the majority of the hundred to hundred and fifty thousand rockets and missiles of various size and range held by Hezballah. Such an escalation would definitely gain a response in kind from Israel which would then bring the war onto Lebanese lands. Whether Nasrallah will risk the bloodshed and ravages of another war with Israel remains to be seen. All of Israel hopes he decides not to risk the peace, safety and lives of his people and of Israel as we prefer peace but will act according to the realities presented to us.

 

Another group in the Iranian camp is Hamas and there is always the possibility that they too might decide that by provoking Israel by attacking her civilians, towns, cities, farms, kibbutzim and population centers with barrages of rockets will please their sponsors in Tehran. Further, Iran may demand of them to attack Israel ever escalating their attacks over time in order to find exactly where Israel will draw the line and respond in kind. Hamas might also be a second prong of a pincer attack striking from the north with Hezballah and the South with Hamas. Hamas, along with Islamic Jihad, have been building terror tunnels to use to infiltrate Israel intending to use them during attacks or to abduct Israelis to hold hostage and demand the release of terrorists from Israeli prisons. This has become a point of contention in some circles in Israel.

 

Then there is the rumors about a grand plan being worked upon in Washington D.C. based on the Two-State Solution. President Trump will soon attempt to bring about another round of negotiations between the PA and Israel. The rumors are that there will be concessions asked of both sides. We have been here before where the concessions from Israel are concrete sacrifices on the lands and in assigned borders granting additional facts for the PA to claim more areas while the PA and Abbas are only requested to make promises which they will never keep. It has been the same ever since the disaster brought upon Israel by the crafters of the Oslo Accords; Shimon Peres, Yossi Beilin, Ron Pundak, Yitzhak Rabin and their select group of advisers and negotiators. Since then there have been a select group who have continued to believe in the Oslo Accords and protected them always holding to the concept that should Israel only find the exact formula of concessions and enticements, then peace will break out and roses will bloom. This has been the political Achilles Heel of Israel.

 

The Truth Arab League Wants You to Know

 

Then there is a growing rift which has grown between the American Jewish communities, particularly those of a leftist political alignment. This rift has not grown between the traditional Orthodox who largely still supports Israel just as they have since her conception seeing Israel as the realization of the dream. Meanwhile, the leftist Jews are mostly made up from the Reform and Reconstructionist movements and have recently invented a new branch designed to strike from another angle, these are the New Orthodox, Open Orthodox or whatever name they will jump to using once these names has been exposed as false branches and not truly Orthodox. These pseudo-Orthodox factions believe in same sex marriage, inter-faith marriages and numerous other leftist political positions which run contrary to Halacha. They have used this front to augment the push by the leadership of nontraditional Judaism to demand Israel bend and hold to the leftist principles followed by these sects which long ago placed their leftist politics above Halachic Judaism. They demanded a mixed gender place where women could wear Tallit, put on Tefillin, and even read Torah and Israel tried to meet them on this demand. The section was not used and remained deserted but when the Israelis decided to close the section to save resources, the hue and cry went up that Israel was drawing lines on who was a Jew and who was not. Their most damaging attempt was the demand that Israel accept any conversion to Judaism from any Rabbi or source with no regards for qualitative demands, religious knowledge of the convert, desire of the convert to live an Halachic life or even make an attempt to be Jewish in any manner or fashion. The reason behind these attacks is to label Israel as rejecting their Jewishness and not hold themselves at all responsible for their complete desertion of all things Jewish exchanging them for leftist politics and their holy revolution.

 

Another peril for Israel is the rising anti-Semitism in Europe and starting to spread throughout the world. This is an Israeli problem as Israel has a responsibility to fight to protect the Jews everywhere. By fight, we do not mean literally but politically and socially. The best antidote for anti-Semitism is a strong and proper Israel and Israeli people living proper and Torah observant lives. Israel must also be the refuge for any Jews who find themselves threatened where they reside giving them a place to which to flee should things turn that badly. This was the case throughout the 1950’s as Jews faced pogroms and exile from their homelands across the MENA region as the Arab and Muslim rulers demanded their Jews flee after stripping them of all their wealth. This was the case as the Jews fled the Soviet Union in the 1970’s through the 1980’s. This will be the unfortunately necessary case when Europe decides they no longer care to countenance their Jewish populations. This will be far from the first time that Jews have been expelled from European nations or threatened with genocide should they not exit quickly enough. This was the reason the Holocaust came about as Hitler initially demanded that the Jews be permitted to return to their homelands in what would become Israel. The British who controlled the lands at the time responded to Arab rioting at the idea of permitting European Jews to flee to Israel refused them entry. Now there is no external power preventing Israel from being the last and best hope for the Jewish People. If or when places around our world decide to expel their Jews, today there is a land which will gladly give them a home and assist them in adjusting to their new life, and that is Israel. We have heard people argue that the United States would accept Jews in distress but all we can ask them is if they have ever heard of the steamship St. Louis. Usually their answer is no and they need be educated that this was evidence of exactly what the United States did when Jews were in desperate need of assistance and were within sight of the American shoreline as well as the Coast Guard ships escorting their slow cruise along the eastern seaboard on their trip back to Frankfort. Israel is the guarantor that such a travesty never happens again. Israel is the enforcement behind the phrase, “Never Again.”

 

And now another disaster appears on the horizon. Former Prime Minister and Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Wednesday he is seriously considering running for Prime Minister. There are also reports that he has been contacting leaders of several parties and is most seriously considering joining the Zionist Union assuming the top spot from Labor chairman Avi Gabbay. Ehud Barak was quoted by Hahadashot stating, “Today I am more mature and qualified to lead the State of Israel than any candidate around.” Yes, Ehud Barak never has suffered from excessive modesty. But please do not take our word for this, from his own mouth, “I do not need reinforcements – I am immodest enough to notice that in terms of record, experience, international familiarity, intimate familiarity with security problems, economics, etc. I am now more mature and qualified to lead the State of Israel than any of the candidates around, including Netanyahu.” This from a man who has never found any proposed sacrifice as being too excessive if their might be a Nobel Peace Prize for finally reaching a deal with the PA. Ehud Barak has taken great hope from a poll which he claims he does not know the source, really likely, which he describes stating, “I also have a poll, which I do not know who initiated, but on the question, ‘If there was a direct election for prime minister and Netanyahu and Barak were candidates, who would you vote for?’, I beat Netanyahu among the secular public.” He probably has not heard that Israel while being a secular state politically, is a largely religious state. This explains the sabotage and condemnatory statements regarding Prime Minister Netanyahu over the past eighteen months while claiming to have no interest in running for political office. We have suspected he was once again planning on running for Prime Minister as he cannot believe he is not running everything from Israel to the United Nations, the Nobel Committee and the planet, after all, he is not “immodest” by admission. Who are we to argue with Mr. Perfect?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Should ISIS Replace Hamas in Gaza; So What?

 

There has been a news story running around loose that ISIS is causing ripples of violence and is intending to replace Hamas as the governing body in Gaza. Should this actually come to pass, what difference it would make has not been explained in the stories I have seen and I am pretty sure I know why, the truth would be too revealing. The other reason this story has had the emphasis given it is so that the world will see such an event as something horrific and of causing a sea of change probably for the worse. This is true only if your name happens to be Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal of Hamas or Ramadan Shalah and Abd Al Aziz Awda of Islamic Jihad and potentially some of the other top echelon commanders such as Hamas Military Commander Muhammad Deif. The terrorist members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad have been complimented by the lead members of ISIS in Gaza as far back as last summer’s Operation Protective Edge though you would be hard pressed to find many, if any, news stories mentioning such, especially outside of Israel. Even within the Israeli media the subject was barely ever breached for reasons that escape me for their logic. The most news that mentioned Hamas and ISIS in the same breath was those quoting Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and a few other Israeli politicians and top security officers in the IDF and Shin Bet who were making the point publically that there was really no discernible difference between Hamas and ISIS despite what the world media cared to report. The actual discernible difference should both Hamas and Islamic Jihad along with the remaining Fatah and Palestinian Authority individuals all be supplanted by ISIS would be that Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal of Hamas as well as Ramadan Shalah and Abd Al Aziz Awda of Islamic Jihad and perhaps some of the secondary commanders who were seen as not sufficiently bold in their efforts against Israel as that would be the level of the majority of the change. I am fairly sure that the topmost leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Fatah, al-Qaeda of Gaza and any other top commanders who have been getting excessively wealthy usurping funds off the top for personal gain, better known as greed, then you have something to fear as such activities are not pure and will deserve punishment by the leaders of ISIS. The top people with the most profit from their positions such as the billionaires of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh and Khaled Mashal who are both worth many billions of dollars, will simply be spending a lot more time at their mansions in Qatar and as time passes less and less time anywhere near Gaza, Mashal has not visited Gaza except for that occasional photo-op just to validate his credentials and to raise morale amongst the troops. The main loss to these leaders is that the gravy train will stop running and they will just have to suffer a serious financial setback and need to spend very carefully such that they do not spend through their billions of dollars too quickly.

 

In Gaza the difference will be minimal until ISIS has attained what they consider a critical mass such that they have the troops and equipment in place and everything ready for their assault on Israel. They will tell their forces that the day when the Zionist entity will pay dearly and no longer be in possession of the stolen Muslim lands and their fellow Muslims who are pure in their practice and intentions will finally celebrate their victory over the much hated enemies of Allah. Needless to point out but if you happen to be an Arab, Muslim or not, resident in Israel and ISIS were to even temporarily for some few hours gain control of your area of residence then you would be best served to be elsewhere during that period as any Israel Arab, especially the Muslims, will be treated according to Quranic texts and their most violent and strictest of interpretations. This means that those who are followers of Islam will have to explain to deaf ears why they had not risen up and destroyed Israel from the inside and were instead living so peaceably with the Jews. After said testimony, which will be interpreted to be more of a confession of guilt, these Muslims will be declared apostate and appropriately murdered, most likely burned alive as has been the lot for the Shia captured by ISIS. The best off will be the Arab Christians who will be permitted to live after paying the Jiyza, the tax especially levied against Christians and other non-Muslims under which their Muslim leadership will protect them until the next payment comes due, but be warned that sooner rather than later you will either not have the funds to pay the Jiyza or will be given the final choice between adopting Islam or death, and conversion will not necessarily save you as your forced conversion may be determined not to have been spiritually uplifting and you would then meet the fate of an apostate, burned alive.

 

After Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the rest of the terrorist forces in Gaza would necessarily come under the control of ISIS the sea change would barely be more noticeable than a ripple added to the surf pounding the coast; simply put it would produce negligible change. The changes would mostly be cosmetic as while the production of rockets would be increased with the rockets being stored for intense use in support of the eventual ISIS assault to eliminate Israel and liberate the stolen lands which they as the next Caliphate should rule over all the lands that were ever under Islamic rule and that includes all of Israel. The reality would likely be very different as ISIS has a much larger and more important foe than Israel which has been under attack for some time using Gaza as a safe haven and supply depot. The other dirty little secret that the news media have not reported about is that ISIS presence in Gaza is mostly to operate as their liaison with Hamas who manage the supplies and provisions so as to have ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula provided with the appropriate weaponry and ammunition for their attacks on Egyptian forces as their intent is to be able to take possession of sufficient amounts, all or the vast majority, of the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula and have successfully pushed all Egyptian forces from the field of battle and be capable of announcing their great victory and spread into the Sinai Peninsula and declared it as a part of the Islamic State being founded by ISIS. Such an accomplishment would necessarily demand an Egyptian counter-offensive to retake control over the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula using solely Egyptian forces so as not to need Israeli assistance of any note as such would arm ISIS with a propaganda battering-ram with which to unseat President Sisi and the Egyptian government and replace such rule over all of Egypt claiming it for the Islamic State’s Caliphate, just another jewel in their turban and another loss for the Arab Muslims desiring peace under which they can continue their lives.

 

Once ISIS has managed to wrest the Sinai Peninsula from Egyptian control, then ISIS would turn their attention on capturing Cairo and Alexandria, Egypt and then annex the remainder of the country setting to purify the Egyptian population by testing the people on their levels of devotion and knowledge of the Quran and Muslim Law, the Sharia. Should ISIS have the capability of defeating the Egyptian military, not only would such a victory be impressive adding greatly to their reputation, it would serve as another reason proving they are in fact and deed the Caliphate they have declared themselves to be and thus would attract even larger numbers of disenfranchised youth from Western nations as well as across the Muslim world. Such a victory would make any plans to defeat ISIS close to impossible, especially utilizing solely the Iranian forces, even were there to be provided airstrikes as required in support of ground operations to defeat ISIS or seemingly to stop their incremental advances creeping across the landscape. Such a gain would also connect ISIS forces in Libya to the rest of ISIS as well as placing ISIS that much closer to uniting with Boko Haram in western Africa and based in Nigeria. Adding the weapons systems and fighter aircraft to the ISIS arsenals would also be augmented by providing safe zones in which ISIS could train their own pilots providing them with a force multiplier, air support and bombing targets in order to soften them for the ensuing ground assault, something carried out currently by suicide bombers. Such gains made by ISIS would pose a direct threat to the entirety of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and place increased fears in Europe, particularly the southern nations bordering the Mediterranean Sea. One might suspect that such gains and the accompanying threats would provide sufficient threats that the United States would act in a more forceful manner beyond limited airstrikes, but it is our conjecture that until, at the earliest, mid-January 2017 the world can pretty much rule out any increase in their commitment than to provide minimal air support of a few sorties on an active day. One reason that President Obama would not escalate the situation with ISIS would be due to any expansion westwards across northern Africa poses no imminent threat to Iran. In such a case, western movement would take the focus off Iran allowing them to better prepare for their inevitable conflict with ISIS for as long as ISIS exists, the Shia Muslims will not be safe anymore than Jews, Christians and others who do not bow to Allah.

 

The current efforts by ISIS are bringing more forces to bear in the Sinai Peninsula and it appears they will simply be cementing their gains in Iraq for the time being while continuing their efforts in Syria while striking in the Sinai in an effort to overwhelm the Egyptian forces currently holding the area. This is a natural fit for ISIS to open its next expansion as they already have a resupply base where they are able to keep supplies safely and a place they can hide away from the warfront retreating and enjoying relative peace in which to lick their wounds and plan for their next strike. The ISIS strategy is to strike hard with as many forces across as many fronts of the area of operations causing confusion and high casualty counts on their enemy attempting to overrun their checkpoints and other positions. This is the first time ISIS is fighting a national armed forces as until now they were fighting the remnants of a the Syrian Army and militias such as the Kurdish Peshmerga forces and the Sunni and Shia militias in Iraq and some of Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) forces which have continued to hold Baghdad and stymying further advances. This has forced ISIS to open a new front from which to make headway and continue to project their strong horse imagery and their invincible forces. Their raid this week assaulted multiple targets striking checkpoints and guard positions across the Sinai Peninsula. These strikes met with varying levels of defense but by the end of the day the Egyptian army had regrouped and pushed ISIS from all the positions they had taken earlier in the day. This was accomplished using assets wisely. The coordinated fight was conducted using forces including the Egyptian Air Force, armored units and those ground forces already deployed in the Sinai Peninsula. ISIS actually brought supplies out of Gaza prompting one Egyptian military leader to breach the subject of Gaza claiming that Egypt held the option of their forces going into Gaza and striking hard at any opposition units that may be; including Hamas, Islamic Jihad or other terror forces they find in Gaza. Initial results have shown that ISIS can push the Egyptian forces from their positions but they have thus far been unable to retain the grounds gained and are forced back into hiding. This may prove to be a war of attrition which would favor ISIS as they are gaining strength as the Western Powers, particularly the United States, appear reticent as they refuse to commit ground troops and actually fight against ISIS. Their anxiousness might be due to their having a plan for one great rout of the United States forces reminiscent of the Tet Offensive in Viet Nam. What that taught the leaders who have studied the History of the United States, particularly their innovative abilities to adapt to their situation and implement strategic options changing their tactics and adopting new and innovative tactics to fit that situation but that as long as the enemy can claim a victory and have produced large numbers of casualties that the media will reside with the isolationist reporting the offensive as have created a new and perilous situation where the forces fighting the United States are described as valiant while the United States military are cast as murderous and treacherous and any other derogatory terms and cast as losing the war or at best not winning. Once the American public has been bombarded with such news reports they demand the troops be brought home and from that point forward the United States has lost and their enemies need only keep up a modicum of effort as a constant reminder and to continue the nightly body count at the opening of every newscast. This was what defeated the United States in Viet Nan, in Afghanistan, and in Iraq once already and the one strength the terror forces have is they have nowhere to run to so they will fight to the last man, woman and child. That sort of determination takes an amount of steady and constant levels of ruthlessness in order to not only defeat them in every battle but to break their spirit and prove to them beyond any doubt that their cause is useless and, in this case, Allah does not favor them being deserving of victory and has handed victory to their sworn enemies. The only question is once the coming war begins, will the American people have the stamina and stomach for completing the fight or will they simply first surrender to the coming propaganda and then inevitably face the final surrender, surrendering to Allah and becoming Muslim and all that does entail.

 

Beyond the Cusp