Beyond the Cusp

June 19, 2017

The Israeli Netanyahu Complex

 

Israel, Israelis and Prime Minister Netanyahu have a serious love-hate relationship. Despite this, Benyamin Netanyahu has managed the atmosphere, publicity, situations, levels of apprehension and threat analyses in such a manner such that he appears to be the sole leader who can manage the situation without serious consequences and maintain a lower level of violence than anybody else. This has led to his retaining the position of Prime Minister for twelve of the last twenty-one years and for the past ten years straight and still in office. Currently, there does not appear to be anyone who could seriously challenge Prime Minister Netanyahu for the office. None of the current leaders of the other parties with the possible exception of Naftali Benet from Jewish Home and, in an effort for reality, there are those claiming that the one man to defeat him before, Ehud Barak of the Labor Party if they would run him also might be capable of defeating him. The honest hope for Ehud Barak is mostly a pipe dream but if he were to run he could count on having some very experienced campaign advisors as the United States Democrat Party campaign specialists would probably be dispatched to assist as they have in every effort to unseat Netanyahu and place a left leaning, or preferably a leftist, Prime Minister. A recent article we read spoke of some Israeli politicians who might be capable of replacing Netanyahu so we decided to talk about what we see as their chances and why they might have difficulty.

 

The first is Yisrael Katz who is the current Minister of Transportation and Minister of Intelligence and Atomic Energy and belongs to the Likud Party. Another was Gilad Erdan who currently holds the positions of Minister of Public Security, Strategic Affairs Minister and Minister of Information and is also a member of the Likud Party. Their next choice was Yariv Levin who currently serves as Minister of Internal Security and Minister of Tourism plus also is a member of Likud. Their final choice was Ze’ev Elkin who is the Minister of Jerusalem Affairs and Minister of Environmental Protection and also is a member of Likud and had joined Kadima under Prime Minister Sharon. These men all share the same weakness, they are members of the Likud Party, the same party lead and totally owned by Prime Minister Netanyahu. This means that as long as they behave themselves and do not rock the boat and especially do not challenge the boss and behave themselves, then the arch-leader of Likud will dole out prestigious positions which will give them notoriety but nothing so impressive or important that it would allow them to actually believe they have any real hope to replace Bibi Netanyahu at the top of the Likud Party lists and thus allow them to run for Prime Minister. Historically, those who have attempted to challenge Netanyahu have soon found themselves placed below position thirty-six and even possibly past forty-five on the ministerial list all but guaranteeing that you will not be in the Knesset, if you somehow do manage to make it because Likud actually realized more than thirty-five or forty-five or even over sixty positions, the fact you are so far down on the list there is no hope no matter your qualifications of being assigned any Cabinet Ministership. Simply, should you challenge Bibi Netanyahu for leadership of the Likud Party you will only be in a position to do so once and after that you may as well leave Likud and make your way to another party and pray that you gain notoriety in that manner. Remaining in Likud will have you perform penitence for a period until your name is barely remembered before being permitted to see the light of day politically. These men were accurately described as being possibly not charismatic like Bibi Netanyahu is, but they are more trustworthy, have experience, and are honest. This is a valid assessment but still meaningless for as long as they are in Likud and Netanyahu still desires to be the Party head and their candidate for Prime Minister, and that does not appear as if it will change any time in the foreseeable future.

 

Top row Yisrael Katz and Gilad Erdan Bottom row Yariv Levin and Ze'ev Elkin

Top row Yisrael Katz and Gilad Erdan
Bottom row Yariv Levin and Ze’ev Elkin

 

This means that anyone who truly has any opportunity and an actual viable hope to replace Benyamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister, they will need to come from another party. This leaves three avenues by which one might steer their party into surpassing Likud in Ministerial Knesset postings and thus make it to becoming the next Prime Minister of Israel. The traditional means of accomplishing this was to be from a diametrically opposite party. This would mean that one would need to come from one of two parties, Labor Party which is currently led by Isaac Herzog or Meretz currently led by Zehava Gal-On. There is also the off chance that the Labor Party might be taken over by Ehud Barak who would be promising that he could unseat Netanyahu just as he had done in the July 1999 elections when President Bill Clinton sent a team of his best political operatives to run Barak’s campaign. With the current political climate, these left leaning to strongly left parties would have little if any chance of winning as the Israeli public has been moving to the conservative, nationalist and Zionist ends of the political spectrum and away from the left, liberal and progressive end. So this route is not currently viable if one is to be completely honest. To give an example from memory, there was a poll taken for the left leaning parties which listed different possible candidates who might challenge Netanyahu and none of those listed, which included all of the above mentioned, managed to clear thirty-three percent in polling of the Israeli public. The next groups would be the centrist parties which include Yesh Atid led by it founder Yair Lapid and Kulanu whose leader is Moshe Kahlon. Of the two parties, Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid is the only one which might have a chance of defeating Netanyahu though such is unlikely unless one of the Zionist or conservative parties splits the right wing voters almost dead evenly with Likud, something which may be more likely than many might think. In such a race, the parties having the best chance to knock off Likud other than their fellow travelers on the right include Yair Lapid and also Yisrael Beiteinu, and representing the Russian Israelis and some centrist to conservative leaning and their leader Avigdor Lieberman. This would only come into play should probably Jewish Home whose leader is Naftali Bennett ran almost dead even with Netanyahu and Likud in the election, and even then, the combination of Likud and Jewish Home votes would probably run really close to needing only a few additional seats to reach sixty-one Ministers. This would lead to both Yair Lapid and Avigdor Lieberman likely maneuvering for the best Ministerial spots they could garner as the two Zionist, conservative, right wing parties, Likud and Jewish Home, go head-to-head contending for control, ending up placing their leader into the Prime Minister spot or if they would end up sharing the position due to a tie.

 

Attempting to garner a shared spot as Prime Minister might be the best hope for any party fortunate enough to approach the positions taken by Likud and/or Jewish Home. So, reality claims that Naftali Bennett might have the best chance of pressing his party to the fore and becoming Prime Minister. The difficulty which Naftali Bennett would have to overcome was his statement in the last weeks in the run up to the election was that he did not believe he was sufficiently experienced to become Prime Minister. This statement would come back to bite him and he would be required to explain what had changed making him now confident he was competent enough to be the Israeli Prime Minister, one position which calls for a steady hand and resolute actions. What might be required might be new leadership in Jewish Home before they could challenge Netanyahu. The number two in the party currently is a very popular young woman, Ayelet Shaked, the current Justice Minister. Justice Minister Shaked has stated in an interview that the day may come when she would consider running for the office of Prime Minister. Her qualifier was that it might be some time, as she desires to raise her children before taking on such a stressful and time-consuming position. There is one pressing question we would like to put to Ms. Shaked, what kind of Israel would you like for your precious children to grow up and live in, serve in the IDF within and face what kind of future? If your answer sounds anything like what you stand for, then you might wish to reconsider your time scale as currently with the leadership we see the future you desire presumably for your children will never happen. Israel needs to progress to that vision we heard you express and you might be the sole person who can get Israel to that place. In order to get there, Prime Minister Netanyahu must be replaced by a person with vision and the internal fortitude to challenge the world and move to the future Israel will be permitted to survive, and you understand these challenges all too well, so please think about altering your time scales for your children and Israel’s sake.

 

Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked

Minister of Justice Ayelet Shaked

 

What we have observed is that Prime Minister Netanyahu is far more concerned with remaining as Prime Minister than he is the future of Israel. He preaches about the threats and gives reason after reason why building cannot proceed at this time and has been claiming this for close to a decade. He is always willing to side with and arrange through promises, threats and enticements for the immediate destruction or a timed destruction in a few months after the people have had the opportunity to move and then almost always destroys their homes as soon as he is able. Then the replacement homes never materialize as to do so would upset the United States President, or would cause more terrorism or would set things in the peace process in danger or whatever excuse even to include the stars are not in a positive alignment. Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to remove Hamas, despite their ever-growing menace and may soon launch a serious and immense rocket and missile barrage timed to have coinciding terrorists pouring out of infiltration tunnels all timed to include cooperation with Muslim Brotherhood or Islamic State rocket launches from the Sinai Peninsula which Israel is unable to respond to should they be launched from deeper within the Sinai Peninsula, as doing so could place Egyptian forces in danger and thus would require making arrangements with President Sisi of Egypt before striking. This assault could result in thousands of Israelis murdered before the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) could respond with sufficient troops to counter any large-scale attack. During the last Gaza war IDF forces who investigated the infiltration tunnels found motorcycles, stolen IDF uniforms or good copies, cashes of weapons, large quantities of ammunition, hand grenades, mortars to be fired from within Israel and maps showing the IDF bases and position, Israeli towns and Kibbutzim with the children’s schools and preschools and daycare locations marked, maps of Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and other Israeli population centers, diagrams of the Dimona Nuclear facility, locations marked of the shelters where Israelis would ride out the rocket attacks and other intelligence which would aid Hamas terrorists in causing the greatest damage and taking of life possible. This somehow did not enter into the post-war analysis which is a devastating oversight, or more likely an intentional attempt to keep the people feeling quasi-safe.

 

The one item Prime Minister Netanyahu has gotten correct is that Mahmoud Abbas and the entirety of the Palestinian Authority are not true peace partners. Despite knowing this, nothing has been done to alter the leadership and find leaders who would pursue peace and work against continued terrorism. Independent polling has proven one thing about the Palestinian Arabs residing in both Gaza and Judea and Samaria (Palestinian authority Areas) has shown that given an opportunity to immigrate to somewhere other than the areas where they are currently stuck and refused permission or the freedom to leave, sell their home or practice any normalcy, even without any monetary assistance, a sizable majority would flee the instant doing so was not life threatening. Their lives and opportunities for a normal life and a future for their children is so impossible and their lives oppressed with much of their wealth stolen by the governance, Arab governance, not Israeli, that they simply want out from under their kleptocratic governance. Another item that Prime Minister Netanyahu has avoided pursuing has been pressing the world with the truth that in Gaza, the Arabs are ruled by Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Arabs in Judea and Samaria are ruled by the Palestinian Authority and neither group is permitted free or open elections with Abbas not allowing elections since 2005. Israel has no control, as these are semiautonomous regions making them self-ruled. Netanyahu has allowed the world to blame Israel for the conditions in places where Israel has no influence and allowed the concept that Israel stole land from a nation of Palestine, a nation which has never existed in all of history. Under the governments of Prime Minister Netanyahu, the world has taken steps which could result in the loss of all of Jerusalem including Western Jerusalem. Israel should have been speaking loudly and often about our undividable capital city, which King David established three thousand plus years ago. We should be pressing the fact that the world promised us the lands from the River to the Sea and that Judea and Samaria were occupied illegally by Jordan who placed their own citizens in the lands by force, a crime against humanity and a war crime and that Egypt illegally held Gaza and that in 1967 these lands were liberated by the IDF and returned to Israel by right and the world knew that at the time and still worked to steal these lands away. There should have been a constant drumbeat of how Israel desires peace and the reality is that the Arabs do not desire peace or a state for the Arab Palestinians, they just want to destroy Israel and Israel will not allow such. Finally, Israel should take back Judea and Samaria, allow the Arabs to leave if they desire with their lands bought by the Israeli government or they could sell them to anyone wishing to purchase them if they feel that would get them a better price. They might even be offered a one-time departure benefit to assist their relocating to make it more enticing. Such an offer would be put forth for one year and only one year. As far as Gaza, if there should be provocations by Hamas or other terrorists from within Gaza then Israel will take back the Gaza and remove any terrorist infrastructure and give the same freedoms to immigrate to another nation with a one time bonus and the same buyout offer as given the Arabs from the Palestinian Authority once their lives were liberated from their oppressive rulers. As far as Abbas and his henchmen, they would be sent out paying their own way and given seventy-two hours to clear out and they would be permitted to find a place which would accept them and they can live off their hundreds of millions of stolen Euros and Dollars. They should also be warned that should they ever be caught within the boundaries of Israel in the future they would be put to death immediately. Now where can we find a Prime Minister who is at least willing to build in Area C which by the Oslo Accords belongs to Israel and then Area B and then Area A because according to the United Nations Charter Article 80 all of the lands of Judea and Samaria belong to Israel, period? We would permit the Arabs remaining all the religious freedoms, land ownership, the right to work as they please and social rights but no political rights within Israeli elections. They would be treated as resident aliens and any alteration in that status would be a possibility down the road at some later date, but they should consider relocating as that day of becoming citizens of Israel would be quite a while coming, if ever. Israelis should and are getting tired of the same excuses and they are wearing thin. President Trump wishes to be our friend but his ignorance makes him a danger to our health and future. If he could believe Abbas about educating their children for peace and then after being shown the reality and then turn right around and believe Abbas claiming he will no longer pay terrorists or their families, well we need to show him the proof again but can such an uniformed person be trusted to ever catch up with the lies, unlikely. Time has come for Israel to do what Israel must do, period. Can somebody please step up and take control and walk the walk and not just talk?

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 1, 2017

The Only Way Out of Current Impasse

 

Recognize Gaza as the Palestinian State and annex Judea and Samaria. That is the solution in a nutshell. Simply allow the next attempted coup by Hamas, as allowing it to survive for just short of a week, say five days, as in five days any credible coup will remove the hierarchy of Fatah, decapitating the Palestinian Authority (PA). This would be the start of a bloodbath of fighting with much of the PA Security Forces, the same forces, which though trained by United States General Dayton and his cadre in Jordan, lost to Hamas in Gaza in just under a couple of weeks, resulting in their losing badly again. Any decently planned Hamas coup attempt would likely place one third of the PA Security forces against another third of the PA Security Forces while the remaining third would run to Jordan seeking asylum. The hue and cry from those selfsame United Nations Security Council which just passed a resolution all but demanding that Israel flee back from Judea and Samaria, if not jump straight into the Mediterranean Sea, would be blaming Israel for the Arab on Arab fighting and demanding that Israel dispense sufficient IDF force to save the Arabs from the other Arabs. This is where Israel points out their solving this problem, which will have all the appearances of Syria redux, comes with a price, Judea and Samaria, and that the world had best find someplace for these newly made refugees to be taken in and coddled, perhaps around Turtle Bay in New York.

 

The first step Israel should take when such a scenario of a Hamas coup explodes in Nablus would be to secure Area C and make sure everybody knows Israel is simply following through on providing security and protection for all people residing in Area C as per the Oslo Accords. Israeli leadership could produce numerous copies of the agreement if the world demands so and it will reveal that Area C security, both militarily and politically, falls to Israel and Israel alone while Area A is purely PA security and Area B is shared when necessary. On that note make sure to inform the world that Israel is carefully overseeing the security potential for problems in Area B and if the PA proves not to be up to the task that there are contingencies for the IDF to provide security in Area B as per the Oslo Accords. Israel would need to issue Hamas a stern warning that Israel takes a very dim and critical view of their activities in this coup and as Israel remains powerless to aid the PA, Israel will not allow any actions against Israeli forces, citizens or lands to go unchallenged and no such actions will be ignored. All this in place, Israel should monitor the situation, offer to secure Area B if the PA would so request and otherwise wish the PA well with their electoral problems and pretend they are finally holding those long overdue elections.

 

As the world begins to press Israel about the fighting in Nablus and much of Area A, Israel should simply point out that the world just demanded Israel honor its commitments to the Palestinian people and their government and that is exactly what Israel intends to do. We should invite the United Nations to send peacekeepers if they feel such is required in Area A but warn that once peace is restored that Israel expects to be included in any further governance other than the PA being reinstalled. If Hamas performs anywhere near to their past history, reinstalling the PA would necessitate new leadership and potentially the parties who should have had the power all along, the ruling clans who have lived under dire threat with the PA in charge, would regain their positions. With each town and village ruled by their clan elders things can become manageable and perhaps a peace could be forged. Of course, again, there would be a price for permitting these clans to have some form of autonomy where they could expect to rule without terrorist groups cutting the heads of leadership of the public body, both figuratively and actually. Israel could simply make a deal where the IDF rules the area keeping the boogie men at bay allowing semi-autonomous rule of the Arab enclaves by the local Arab clans with the international and national security provided by Israel. In exchange these clans would permit all of Area C, the Jordan Valley and the overlooking Heights to be annexed by Israel to further facilitate providing complete security for these clan leaders.

 

This ends the claims of from the river to the sea all Jews must be eradicated and in its place implants Arab rule over Arab peoples and room for both to expand and Israeli sovereignty over all of Israel as defined by countless conferences, treaties, articles in charters, white papers and just about every conceivable form of Internationally recognized legal proceedings. These clan leaders will also submit that their education system can be either handled completely by themselves with their curricula supervised to remove any instigation, they could hand the entire responsibility to Israel who would then run the necessary schools within their area for a reasonable fee or the two could collaborate and form a partnership. The final compromise would likely serve well and Israel taking their school system and incorporating it into the regular Israeli system would provide a high level of education and a promising opportunity for these students. The most difficult task will be the deprogramming of those swayed or involved with terrorism and those deepest in its clutches may require a deprogramming followed by an intense reeducation experience required to give them maximum normal education in an extremely abbreviated timeframe.

 

Many will claim that this is completely unfeasible because the PA is too powerful for any inferior Hamas force to contend against. If this is so, then the PA will continue, possibly wounded, but continue and things will only affect Area C which will still be locked down under the demands of the Oslo accords. If the world is going to pretend that the Green Line is the result of the Oslo Accords, then perhaps Israel should act exactly as demanded by the Oslo Accords and secure Area C. Such security would preclude any building by the European Union or any European government or NGO. When we speak of Area C we are speaking of the general areas defined within Area C and not any of the roadways beyond those required for access to and from Israel and Jerusalem. Securing the areas which the Oslo Accords favored Israeli retention of lands, Area C, and offering and potentially securing the shared responsibility and lands where the debate over who owned what was presumed to be negotiated, Area B, Israel will have reinstated the realities of the Oslo Accords. Should the debate by AK-47 in Area A between Hamas and the PA devolve into a Syria-like mire of horrific levels of hell on earth, Israel should offer to protect the areas which the world, especially the Western World, hold dear such as Hevron, Bethlehem, Jericho and other special religious sites which include but are not limited to Joseph’s Tomb, Rachel’s Tomb and all locations within the city of Jerusalem and immediate suburbs (see map below). There would therefore be some alterations but should the PA accept such terms, even after any coup attempt, these could be the final peace. The understanding would be that absolutely no terror activity which could be traced to PA instigation or having received rewards or special recognition by the PA and all such activity would not be tolerated. This must be an absolute sworn to before the world as witness and thus enforceable by both parties. Be assured that Israel does not desire to rule over Arab parties who desire semi-autonomous self-rule. These areas would be given sufficient autonomy to police their own areas, collect taxes, limit entrance if desired, and run their own governmental agencies. The understanding is that the IDF and Israeli security forces would be permitted to operate within these areas in order to combat terror and to secure the lands from outside threats, a duty taken over completely by Israel. Any electricity, water, sewage treatment and other necessary utilities would be provided by Israel if desired but must be paid for as received or face termination of service as would any other customer. As a part of being semi-autonomous such utilities could also be billed as is done in Israel but once again bills must be paid for continued service.

 

Map of Proposal for Peace with Palestinian Authority

Map of Proposal for Peace with Palestinian Authority

 

After any coup destroyed the local governance and after Hamas is defeated, then the Arabs residing in Areas A and B will be granted an opportunity to choose whether they desire local rule by chosen clan leaders or other tribal means, attempted inclusion within Israel after meeting a series of educations and understandings, or a return to rule by the PA or by Hamas. These choices will take place as voted under Israeli and outside observers from the United Nations, European Union and the United States along with other interested parties. Should the majority choose self-rule in semi-autonomous clanship ruled enclaves, then the PA will be dissolved and such governance as chosen will be set by another election held soon thereafter. This would result in a two state solution with Gaza as the second state ruled by Hamas, at least for now. What the lying political appointees and elected officials claiming to favor a two state solution are either making the choice for a three state solution with one under Hamas rule and the other under PA, unless they are admitting that they are already aware that should the PA be granted any form of governance, it would inevitably provide Hamas the high ground overlooking the Israeli center and the major developed lands both industrial and residential after they once again would route the PA in a mano-a-mano fight. Israel cannot and will not allow Hamas such ground with which to destroy the heart of Israel, and as such, Israel will never surrender our holiest sites to further ruin as has been the case with such sites in Syria and already perpetrated on our holiest grounds, the Temple Mount. As difficult as it might be for the world to admit, placing the Palestinian Arab people under clan and tribal rule would improve their lives immeasurably and far improve their opportunities for advancement. It would also remove from their shoulders the yoke of PA leadership’s embezzlement and oppressive and borderline criminal rule and the crony system by which a select few get unfathomably rewarded and the poorest find providing their family with food difficult.

 

What the world has proven through their actions supporting the PA kleptocracy and refusing the Palestinian Arabs honest governance by their own representatives and chosen local leaders in favor of the homicidal maniacs instigating a horrific injustice by instigating terror, is they support the destruction of Israel and the Jewish State even if the Palestinian Arab areas must suffer depravations only exceeded by Syria. This terror war is spreading now beyond Israeli shores into Europe, America, the Middle East, Africa, Asia and virtually every place on earth with the exception, thus far, of Antarctica. France has been heavily struck as has Germany with both nations facing climbing criminal complaints with an unbelievable increase in sexual assaults. These increases can be directly tied to the social shock of attempting to incorporate one culture into an existing older order which one has a differing sense of order and moral behavior while the newer system believes in taking any woman who is not protected by law or criminal enterprise. Their governance has been largely corrupt and could not care less about their rights. In these mixtures, not all lives are created equal and the power appears to rest with the few at the top and the rest make do however they are capable. Such is a poor excuse for governance, especially when one realizes the last held election was approaching past a decade ago and that Abbas has been serving a four year term since 2005. There is no representation of the people or their interests within the PA. The PA operates for the special treatment of the select few and their armed protectors and in return the protectors provide the security in the same manner as the power is distributed. The entirety of the PA is as corrupt as one can imagine and is under the sway of the Iranians. As such it should be viewed with suspicion that they are working towards the destruction of Israel through subversion. Once routed out this time, it will be necessary to keep them out permanently. That is the sole path to peace.

 

Beyond the Cusp 

 

March 8, 2016

Beware of Bidens Bearing No Peace Plan

 

United States Vice President Joe Biden is kicked off a Middle East tour Monday in the UAE (United Arab Emirates) but we all know where the trip will end and what the build-up will do for expectations for pressure to be placed on the Israelis in order to beg and grovel to get Mahmoud Abbas just to have him insult us and make broad claims of Israeli intransigence and refusal to make the needed sacrifice for peace. The reality is, and everyone in governments of Europe, the United States, United Nations and every corner of the globe is that Mahmoud Abbas cannot afford to make peace as doing so would lose him the one thing which keeps him alive and in power, the IDF (Israeli Defense Force) working intelligence and preventing any challenge or takeover by Hamas, Islamic State or any other terror group which would unseat and behead the leadership of the PA (Palestinian Authority) within days, weeks at the longest, of the Israelis pulling from Judea and Samaria (a.k.a. West Bank). Further, if Mahmoud Abbas did reach an accord and established his presumed dream of an Arab state named Palestine, or any other name, then he would have to actually provide real services to a much larger area as Israel provides most of the services in Area B and all the services in Area C which combine to make around three-quarters of the contested areas. Combine these additional government responsibilities and services with the fact that the amounts of aid received by the PA would soon dry-up as there would no longer be any conflict with Israel after such an agreement and without the conflict with the Jewish State the Europeans and United Nations would move on to some other pressing problem like forcing Israel to accept ten million Syrian refugees which Europe was refusing to accept. Without the funds the PA, now a real state, would simply become the latest failed state incapable of providing services or meeting the payroll leading to rioting and the eventual complete collapse of the state of Palestine while the exhortations by Mahmoud Abbas pleading for financial assistance in order to at least reach some form of equilibrium and functionality as without aid, Abbas might even threaten that they would need to declare war on Israel to force the world to take notice.

 

 

United Nations Headquarters and Piece of New York Skyline including the Trump Tower

United Nations Headquarters
and Piece of New York Skyline
including the Trump Tower

 

 

The announcement before Biden left Washington last week was that neither President Obama nor anybody from the administration expects the visit to produce anything concerning the peace process as Biden will be discussing military aid package for the next decade with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and the military command of Israel. If past experience is any indicator of future events, which it more often than not is, then there will be no military aid without concessions for peace and the Israeli leadership will be pressed and pressed and then threatened with an end to military aid, cancelling the F-35 JSF jet fighter deal, withholding of the United States veto in the Security Council on moves for Arab statehood, thus granting Palestinian statehood using the Green Line, the 1949 Armistice Line, which the Arab League demanded never be used as a border ever. There might be threats that the United States would assist and encourage the French to go forward with their plans for final peace talks which if they failed, then the world through the Security Council and General Assembly of the United Nations in a universal accordance would establish Palestine. There may even be floated the idea that Israel not only take whatever steps required to allow the formation of an Arab state named Palestine but also be made responsible for assisting and coordinating with the new state and held as the guarantors for its successful function. Granted this sounds preposterous, but this is not as far-fetched as you might first believe. Israel had been tasked with assisting the PA Security Forces assuring their functioning in Area B before the United States took to training the Palestinian Security Forces in Jordan for urban warfare and other tactical exercises under the command of Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton who succeeded Lt. Gen. William “Kip” Ward in December 2005. Their training has been similar in nature to elite infantry training in the United States. Why such training is provided to a security force which is not responsible for military tactics, but that is what the United States feels the security forces for the PA are going to need.

 

The reason that the United States may have for the extreme training would be believing they might be required to defend an actual nation of Palestine from any threats. But what threats as the neighbors of such a state would be Israel and Jordan, neither of which would have any reason for attacking the PA state unless attacked by them first. The only real threat would be terrorist groups such as Islamic Jihad, Hamas, al-Qaeda and Islamic State. In case of any of these entities attempting to take over any PA State would also pose direct threats to both Israel and Jordan thus it would be in both neighbors’ interest to assist the defense of the PA state if such was requested or possibly even if it was not, as long as the assistance was temporary as nobody desires a reinstating of any occupation. But this training was likely at the behest of the PA leadership which then begs a different question, why would the PA desire an offensive trained security force as security militaries are usually designed to hold their own ground and not having full infantry assault training as they are not exactly going to be forging beachheads from the West Bank as the Jordan River, Dead Sea and Sea of Galilee are the closest bodies of water. Still, there has to be a reason for the PA to have their security forces trained in general combat techniques and in urban warfare in addition to anti-terror operations. The anti-terror operations has an obvious reason, they wanted to understand the methodologies of how the IDF would respond to any major terror campaigns so as to be capable of blunting IDF efforts. Urban warfare training might be applicable against any attempt by Hamas to make an overt takeover of Judea and Samaria as they had done in Gaza. Of course the PA forces in Gaza had been trained and still managed to lose the entirety of Gaza within a few days when the final push came and the PA forces proved useless.

 

That leaves the question of what further use might having military operations training and general combat techniques be useful and what goals might the PA security forces, which number in the thousands of officers, be used towards? The only other target which the Arab Palestinians have ever claimed beyond driving the Jews into the Mediterranean Sea has been to overthrow the Monarchy of Jordan and allow the Arabs, who identify with the cause and quest for power of the PA against Israel, take complete control over Jordan. The main obstacle has been their lack of training and the fact that King Abdullah II’s military consists largely of tribesmen loyal to the crown which shows them preferential treatment and favor over the larger Palestinian population. This does not mean that the Palestinian people are not treated well and they do receive much support from the King and the government but the loyal tribesmen, especially those serving in the military and making up the reserve forces, serving the King in a show of gratitude. King Abdullah II has gained major support of the people from his actions when the Jordanian pilot captured by the Islamic State was tortured and executed in a barbaric manner burning him alive while trapping him in a cage and using the video as a message of superiority over Jordan and as a recruitment tool. Still, there have been those Jordanian Arab Palestinians, who have joined the Islamic State, as have peoples from all of the surrounding Arab Sunni states, but generally the population of Jordan are more sympathetic with the Arab Palestinians in Israel and desire that their military be more supportive of the fight against Israel even to the point of directly aiding the PA in any general uprisings such as the current intifada.

 

 

Jordanian Armed Forces Crest

Jordanian Armed Forces Crest

 

 

One must also remember the attempt by Yasser Arafat to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy and government in the early 1970s. The attempt to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy and take control of Jordan, something the many Bedouin tribes would oppose and who make-up the officer core due to their loyalty to the King, resulted in routing the coup attempt by Yasser Arafat. Their failure in Jordan was what forced the PLO into Lebanon where they quickly attempted a takeover of the Lebanese government resulting in Syria attempting to grab control over Lebanon taking advantage of the turmoil and confusion. This led to the Israeli intervention at the invitation of the Lebanese Christian militias. This resulted in a prolonged Israeli presence creating a buffer zone protecting the Israeli north. This interventional force did suffer a steady number of casualties from suicide bombings and other attacks which the left and the media in Israel used to apply pressure with sizeable demonstrations often by foreign financed NGOs from the left leading to Israel ending the interventional force presence. This permitted Hezballah to set-up their bunker systems and rocket launchers in the extreme south of Lebanon which eventually led to the very costly Second Lebanon War. One must also remember that Hezballah was a direct result of the PLO efforts to overthrow the Lebanese government in the mid and late 1970s.

 

The PLO was the direct progenitor of the PA which is as the PLO before it a direct arm of power projection of the Fatah movement. Any attempt to paint the PA as democratic is a farcical effort as there have been no elections, free or otherwise, since the debacle brought on by United States pressure to hold open elections which were won in large part by Hamas and not Fatah. This led directly to the Hamas flexing of their abilities and mastery and control in Gaza to oust the PA which had denied them their proper victory by basically imposing Fatah supremacy using the Presidency of Abbas. He assumed the position after Arafat’s demise as Arafat’s number two since the founding of the PLO, taking over of Arafat’s roles as leader of Fatah, the PA, PLO and presumed President for Life of any future state. The final straw for Hamas was the cancelling of Presidential election which they were sure to oust Abbas, something Abbas refused to permit as he exercised every bit of his powerful position to put a clamp on all PA and other political functions and preserve what he could.

 

All of this has not altered the grand plan of the PLO, and thus perhaps the PA, of a grander scheme and power play toppling the governances around the area and setting up their claim to be the true leaders of the Arab world. These efforts failed in the 1970s and are no closer to fruition today as Fatah is only holding on to power in the contested areas of Judea and Samaria, oddly enough, because of the efforts by Israel to keep Hamas and others from replacing them The PA would easily be toppled which would lead to a catastrophic terror war emanating from the then former PA controlled areas with Hamas, Islamic Jihad and who knows who else all perched on the southwest in Gaza and direct east in Judea and Samaria overlooking central Israeli population and industrial heart of Israel. This could lead to a far more disastrous rocket war from Hamas with their rockets all but incapable of missing vital targets in and around Tel Aviv and the central core of Israel, a heavily developed area. That is the reason that Israel has supported allowing the PA to remain in Abbas’s incapable and bumbling hands. The alternative is the devil Israel does not know and does not want to know. What they do know is that Abbas has less ability to control anything beyond incitement against Israel. Abbas is in a particularly uncomfortable position of needing to continue aggressions against Israel while making sure not to force any overt actions from Israel. Abbas is also relying on Israeli intelligence and presence in the contested areas of Judea and Samaria to prevent his being overthrown and very likely murdered even by those in the PA who believe him incompetent, or at least impotent in the face of Israel and their ‘occupation’ of the Israeli ancestral heartlands, Judea and Samaria.

 

Eventually this house of cards, which is the toothless PA, will unify, overthrow Abbas and believe they are ready and prepared to topple Israel. And on that day the contested areas will no longer be contested but in open revolt, a very temporary revolt, after which there will be imposed a one state solution and the end of incitement and the presence of the United Nations monstrosity that is UNRWA in Judea and Samaria. The truth is that the only result to the contested areas is complete and total control by Israel. Even if the world were to force the Arab state of Palestine on Israel, it would be a defenseless state, complete nonfunctional and failed state, and from the very beginnings would only devolve from there, with the ever fractious shards attempting to destroy the others and make a name by attacking Israel. Eventually Hamas or worse would emerge as the central power and this would lead to a costly and final war as Hamas or worse cannot be allowed to occupy any of the highlands overlooking central Israel. To allow such is suicide by the immediate thousand cuts made by inexpensive rockets needing no real guidance to strike at the heart of Israel. When such events do unfold, which are all but inevitable, Abbas will likely be the very first casualty and potentially at the hands of the very troops who now guard him, dying as every Caesar before has fallen. As soon as they are not paid their exorbitant salaries their loyalty will wane evaporating into the mists from whence they were born, and that will be the end of the PA. Very soon thereafter Israel will necessarily need to end the entire fiasco before it causes irreparable harm to Israeli infrastructure with attacks against her civilian populations where thousands are affected daily, and not the sparsely populated Negev regions.

 

The similar threat by Hamas and their longer range Iranian provided rocket engines and the ever larger payloads they carry deeper into the Israeli center which sparked the last Gaza War and will eventually lead to the final Gaza war which will result in the decimation of Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the crippling of any other sizeable force. The entire Arab Palestinian existence is that of two failed states whose only lifeline is their threatening Israel and being paid to do so. That cannot be permitted to reach its final goal of destroying Israel and murdering the six million plus Israeli Jews. The threat will eventually become sufficiently capable or sufficiently destructive despite their lack of credible force, only credible destruction, that will ultimately cause the quick and violent end of the Arab Palestinian autonomous states, Hamas’s Gaza and Fatah’s PA in Judea and Samaria. That is the sole finality and the one out for the PA is a successful takeover of Jordan giving them the arms necessary to bring on their destruction that much faster as the use of these weapons’ systems on Israel is an overt act of aggression and declaration of war, the final war.

 

Perhaps the best Israel can do is send Biden home joining those awaiting the election with the premise that it can’t get any worse. We are aware the Russians and Iranians are doing whatever they can, knowing that for them nothing could be better than Obama.
Beyond the Cusp

 

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