Beyond the Cusp

June 14, 2017

I Worry for Israel and Her Future

 

Is my fear produced because of the terrorist threats? Not at all, though that is troubling, it is not a threat that could erase Israel. Is it that Iran may have nuclear weapons in the not too distant future and have claimed they will wipe Israel from the map? No, not that either. Against Iran I have faith that Israeli intelligence will know before the Iranians launch such an attack and then it will be addressed. Should they manage to launch some missiles, the Israeli multi-layered missile interception systems will take care of those attacks and the new additions that are in development are of a nature that no missile will penetrate the Israeli shields. Is it the number of Arab nations who might combine forces again as in 1948? Again, that is not something to fear; as there are very few leaders around whom these nations would congeal and the one potential such leader is more, a friend to Israel than a threat, but that relationship is low-key and not generally shared publically. Then it must be the war predicted for the end times, the war of Gog and Magog. No, that would not concern Israel at all as Israel is not included in that war. Well, what threat have we left out, what could be all that worrying if not these threats?

 

My fear is an unprepared Israel when the United States decides that Israel is not an ally worth assisting any further and the outlays to Israel can be better spent on benefits to the American poor. This could come as quickly as an election of a new President and his Inauguration followed by a complete disengagement from Israel including dissolution of all treaties and agreements. This would include an abrupt ending of all military aid, both material and financial, and the termination of any civil or other forms of aid. We saw how easily such an event could transpire with the election and partial freezing of any friendly relations beyond that which was absolutely necessary by President Obama towards the end of his second term and the general cool relations during his entire eight years in office. Oddly enough, the loss of financial aid is not what is frightening about such a series of events. There are a number of reasons which we will demonstrate fully, but first a little bit of history and the complete obliteration of one of the most lethal myths about the Israel-America relationship.

 

The myth is that the United States has always been the number one supporter of Israel. The corollaries to this myth are equally perfidious as they make both nations look poorly by insinuation. One is Israel would be incapable of making the weapons systems, which the United States provides, on their own. There are a number of answers to this. The first is the Merkava. The Merkava IV is the current rendition of the Israel designed and manufactured main battle tank. Let’s list the top ten main battle tanks as listed by Military-Today.com. The list follows:

1) Leopard 2A7 (Germany)
2) K2 Black Panther (South Korea)
3) M1A2 SEP (Abrams successor) (United States)
4) Challenger 2 (Great Britain)
5) Armata (Russia)
6) Merkava Mk.4 (Israel)
7) Type 90 (Japan)
8) Leclerc (France)
9) Oplot-M (Ukraine)
10) T-90 (Russia)

 

Merkava Mk.4

Merkava Mk.4

 

Now let us research a little history. The United States had an arms embargo on Israel from its inception on May 15, 1948 until they agreed in 1965 to a limited sell of arms, M-48 Patton tanks, which were a main battle tank but was considered to be a medium tank weighing under fifty tons, to Israel through a 3rd party, West Germany. The United States finally lifted the arms embargo selling arms to Israel directly starting in 1969, mainly jet fighters, more Patton tanks and other ground vehicles. This began the United States arms agreements with Israel that becomes obvious in the graph below which shows United States aid to Israel from the beginning in 1948. What is significant is the reason behind this move, which was anything but altruistic. The United States arms industry at that time was largely dependent on its sales of F-15 and F-16 fighter jets that had mainly one rival, the Soviet Union. Of course, each had their basic sphere of nations that were purchasing these aircraft from the two super powers. With neither of these powers selling their aircraft to Israel and with both France and Britain deciding that their best allies in the Middle East were the oil wealthy Arab states, which meant they would have to be abandoning Israel. These left Israel with but one alternative, design and build their own jet fighter, and this was exactly what Israel proceeded to do. The Israelis had built a few prototype aircraft called the Lavi and would have been a competitor for the F-16 in particular as it was of similar design and use. This led the United States to make Israel an offer which she could not refuse. The United States would sell them F-16s and throw in a number of F-15s but Israel had to scrap the Lavi and depend on the United States for their aircraft. The United States also promised that they would assure Israel air superiority for the future. There have been a few episodes since that agreement that have left the promises increasingly suspect. Yes, currently the Israelis have little to worry about with President Trump when it comes to promised deliveries of weaponry and aid, but what about after President Trump. President Obama gave Israel a taste of a wake-up call but things could turn even worse in the future. Imagine if after President Trump actually serves two terms and then, just like after Ronald Reagan (not to claim or compare Trump with Reagan), Vice President Pence serves a single term claiming, “No more taxes,” and then is forced to raise taxes leading to a Democrat winning the Presidency as the conservatives desert the Republicans and simply stay home. The Democrats, after running Hillary again and her losing to Trump a second time, and then running their chairman, Tom Perez, against Pence and he loses. Then they move on to the current vice-chairman Keith Ellison against Pence where he defeats Pence leading to a President Keith Ellison. Look at his affiliations in the past and it becomes glaringly obvious that any relations between the United States and Israel would immediately become a thing relegated to history.

 

United States Israel Aid (Military)

United States Israel Aid (Military)

 

The graph above which depicts the United States aid to Israel, presumed largely military aid, had averaged a fairly steady three-billion dollars per year. The aid has been instrumental in providing Israel with a military advantage but has also made Israel dependent upon the United States military aid. Certain years in the graph stand out as being excessive with 1973 being the greatest surge for a single year than any other. This was the year of the Yom Kippur War which caught Israel off guard and flat-footed with most of their active military on leave to attend services and the majority of their reservists also in Synagogue. There were no people manning telephones as Yom Kippur is one of, if not the, holiest days of the Jewish year and is a fast day where people spend the entire day in Synagogue deep in prayer. In the end, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) resorted to sending vehicles with bullhorns, sound systems and anything with which to send out the call driving up and down the streets from synagogue to synagogue calling out the troops. Units formed by officers grabbing anybody who had the correct insignia with infantry grabbing infantry, armor grabbing armor etcetera with them ending up just grabbing anybody and forming fighting units. Within a day or two, the mess sorted itself out and then the push back started and the war turned in Israel’s favor. In the result of the war the boundaries did not change and the United States and Russia demanded that Israel not advance any further and return to the previous lines from the Six Day War and not continue onward to Cairo, Alexandria or Damascus. Israel was in a particular position which called for drastic aid; they had lost too much equipment and were running short of everything from bullets to aircraft and missiles. Despite Secretary of State Kissinger’s advice to squeeze Israel and hold back on the resupply until Israel was more vulnerable, thus making Israel likely more pliable and agreeable to demands, President Nixon sent the aid as quickly as it could be gathered and flown to Israel. This posed a second problem when the European nations refused to permit the United States refueling rights for any aircraft carrying aid to Israel, especially military aid. There is a lesson in there for Israel but that can remain for the next United Nations vote to discuss. The United States finally received permission to refuel in Portugal so Lajes Field in the Azores Islands became the midpoint for the resupply runs. This was the saving grace permitting Israel to survive what would have otherwise resulted potentially in a second Shoah.

 

But what can Israel do, ask almost anybody claiming to be an expert on the Middle East and they will tell the same thing, Israel cannot survive without the United States money and military hardware. They are only partially correct. Israel needs the United States hardware for the time being but that can be remedied by Israeli inventiveness and a brief period of time. Israel has already purchased and paid for sufficient F-35 JSF Israeli versions to provide sufficient air superiority or equivalence for the near future. There was a time when Israel was considered one of the true weapon innovators in the world. They had what was considered one of the best fighting infantry rifles in the world with the Galil. The weapon in one variant had a bottle opener which could open a soda bottle, or better yet, a beer. The Israelis also designed and manufactured the world-renowned Uzi submachine gun.

 

A Galil infantry rifle and an Uzi submachine gun above with the Lavi in flight followed by the IAI Kfir below

A Galil infantry rifle and an Uzi submachine gun above with the Lavi in flight followed by the IAI Kfir below

 

So Israel has proven with her current main battle tank, the Merkava IV and her historic and proven ability to make her own weapons systems, to be fully capable. The fact the United States felt in the past that they needed to make a generous offer to prevent Israel producing her latest fighter aircraft is sufficient proof that Israel is capable of making his or her own aircraft. Israel has been producing some of the most advanced avionics which they have adapted to numerous airframes and aircraft over the years. So, with the ability for Israel to make their own weaponry, the real potential problem would be the affordability of making their own weapons and doing without the aid money given by the United States. We have established that the funds from the United States to Israel average around three-billion dollars each year. The latest aid package was negotiated by President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu coming to thirty-eight-billion dollars for the next decade. So the current aid level is three-billion-eight-hundred-thousand a year and then after another nine years the package ends and then a new one would be required or Israel, by planning ahead, could turn a new leaf and start being self-dependent. Israel could reenter the world of self-dependence and design and produce her own weaponry. The weapons such as an infantry rifle, a submachine gun, and other small arms and even artillery, self-propelled artillery which they could use the frame of a Merkava IV tank. The largest challenge is obvious, the aircraft, a fifth generation, or better, a sixth generation fighter aircraft or sixth generation fighter aircraft system which may or may not require the pilot be in the aircraft. Israel is a small enough nation that the aircraft defending the borders and close air superiority and support from within Israel using secure encoded telemetry is a feasible and actionable option. The one thing Israel has proven is the ability to innovate and be inventive. How else did Israel get to be called the Start-up Nation? But first Israel has to grow up and realize that they no longer require the defense and military aid money and can depend upon their own ability to afford weaponry without requiring outside funds. Let’s examine this possibility by examining the history of Israel GDP as depicted in the graph below.

 

Israeli GDP Billions $

Israeli GDP Billions $

 

Looking back to where the aid from the United States began in the period between 1965 through 1969 and we see that three-billion dollars a year was about equal to the Israeli GDP. Back then, it was impossible for Israel to raise such a sum of money, as it would have required its entire economy to support the military. Even in 1980 such as the aid from the United States was close to half of Israeli GDP. By the late 1990’s the aid was equal to around three percent of the Israeli GDP and would have been possible even then for Israel to have began defending itself without needing to rely on anyone else. Let us look at the reality of now and where Israel stands economically. The reality is that currently the Israeli GDP is sufficient where the military aid makes up merely one percent and would almost make up for the aid in the taxes paid by the additional workers in defense jobs, jobs which would be fairly well paying. With the military aid package from the United States being merely one percent of Israeli GDP, Israel can make a clean break on her own terms. Eventually the United States aid is going to end. It could have come close under President Obama and had Hillary Clinton won there are some who claim that she would have cut the aid at the first opportunity. Who knows, she might just get such an opportunity yet. And even if she does not, some President down the road is going to decide that the United States can no longer afford Israel and that will be that. Then Israel will have no buffer, no period of adjustment, just a clean, quick cut-off and left dangling without replacement parts for aircraft and whatever other equipment from the United States makes up her armament. Israel had just under a decade to start making the transfer and since the current agreement demands that every penny of the aid be spent in the United States, Israel could stock whatever parts she may require while proving that she can afford to make her own systems and be ready to strike out completely self-dependent into the future. That would make Israel truly capable of defending herself under any conditions or situations because she would be depending largely, nay, completely upon her own industry. That is the future Israelis deserve and the industry would provide thousands upon thousands of new and decent jobs across all levels of educations and abilities.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

Advertisements

March 21, 2017

Syria Attempting to Broaden War Threatening Israel

 

Israel sent her warplanes into Syria this past weekend in order to intercept yet another attempted shipment of weapons potentially including advanced anti-aircraft missiles into Lebanon arming further the Hezballah terrorists who rule the Bekaa Valley and most of Lebanon south of the Litani River. Hezballah has already taken control of most of Lebanon and has indirect, more like reviewing rights of any actions or laws, of the Lebanese government, an improvement of sorts over the direct rule they held a few years back. Apparently trying to rule and fight wars with Israel was taking too great a threat of Israel holding Lebanon responsible. Now Lebanon has been afforded plausible deniable for Hezballah military actions which has not helped much with the events across the border and within their borders with Syria. The length of the reach by Hezballah included their required approval of choice for the new Prime Minister when the new government was formed. Full display of both Lebanon’s difficulty and the threat to Israel are obvious in the map below. Syria will try to drag Israel into the war once again so they can claim to be fighting a holy war against the Zionist entity and will use all of Hezballah’s abilities if need be to accomplish this. That makes the weapons Hezballah already possess and any they are able to smuggle all the more important and why Israel must prevent certain weapons systems of ever being smuggled into Lebanon and to Hezballah forces there. That was the reason for the raid and why there may be more in the future with each one presenting the same difficulties.

 

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

Map Depicting Hezballah Control in Lebanon
Thanks to Syrian and Iranian Assistance

 

Israeli sources including Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman reported the raid was a success and that all planes returned and were undamaged. The Syrians reported things differently claiming to have shot down one Israel aircraft and damaging another. No pictures of the destroyed Israeli plane were provided to back the Syrian claims and they have made similar claims on previous occasions including once against American aircraft under President Obama’s brief attempt at a Syrian campaign against Islamic State. The Syrians also fired four missiles into Israel with one being intercepted by the Arrow III system which was the first real world use of the system which operated well in all aspects. The remaining three landed in open areas, two in the Israel area of the Jordan Valley and the final one landed in Jordan reportedly causing no damage or loss of life. The attempt by Syria to provide their Hezballah ally with rockets is far from new and Israel has taken to only intercepting weapon systems which would provide Hezballah with additional capabilities with the most serious being anti-aircraft missiles and anti-ship missiles. The Iranians have been attempting to provide the Hezballah terrorists with the Chinese C803 anti-ship missiles as well as SAM missile batteries of a more advanced series than those in the Bekaa Valley already. This probably requires an update on the extent to which Hezballah has been rearmed since the United Nations, United States and European Union guaranteed after the Second Lebanon War as part of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 and the doubling the size of the UNIFIL forces who were assigned to prevent Hezballah from rebuilding their tunnel and bunker systems and rearming with rockets, let alone missiles.

 

The UNIFIL forces have been photographed allowing and even assisting in loading their trucks to move Hezballah munitions, armaments, rockets and personnel around in southern Lebanon south of the Litani River, the area where they are presumably tasked to prevent Hezballah from accomplishing such minor details. Hezballah had completely restructured their tunnel systems, underground bunkers, and massively extended these systems and improved their command and control as well as their communications systems and networks. This will have massive positive effect on their abilities and lethality should there ever be a need for Israel to attempt to blunt their threat to Israeli existence. Before the Second Lebanon War Hezballah was suspected of having stocks reaching as high as thirty-five-thousand rockets of which a very small percentage were of the larger varieties able of reaching beyond Haifa and even fewer which had any guidance whatsoever. This had vastly changed. Their current armaments include tens of thousands of missiles with ranges reaching the entire length of Israel carrying as high as five-hundred kilo warheads which also makes the nuclear arms capable. The various names are easy to remember and they are with their range, diameter and payloads as follows:

Katyusha approx. 132mm diameter range 10 kilometer with a 5 kg payloads
FAJR-3 approx. 240mm diameter range of 43 kilometer with a 45 kg payload
FAJR-5 approx. 233mm diameter range of 75 kilometer with a 175 kg payload
Fateh-110/M-600 approx. 0.61 m diameter range of 300 kilometer with a 500-650 kg payload
Zelzal-2 approx. 610 mm diameter range of 210 kilometer with a 600 kg payload
SKUD-D approx. 0.88 m diameter range of 700 kilometer with a 1000 kg payload

The map below indicates the ranges as they pertain to Israel and the danger becomes evident, very evident. This is one of many reasons that Israel has developed the world’s most advanced layered missile defense systems and is working on secondary and triple level means of intercepting all varieties of indirect weaponry including missiles, rockets, artillery and mortars. Israelis are thankful as many lives have been saved and apparently more will need these systems in the future, which is unfortunate.

 

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

Hezballah Rocket & Missile Threat

 

Hezballah has not just tens of thousands of rockets and missiles but somewhere approaching two-hundred-thousand of varying sizes and capabilities. Additionally, there have been reports that through captured weaponry from various Syrian rebel groups that Hezballah has come into possession of a limited number of American MANPAD anti-aircraft weapons as well as similar systems designed from Russian and Chinese types of anti-aircraft weapons of a similar nature. These anti-aircraft and any anti-ship missiles which the Iranians have managed to provide to Hezballah are amongst the most dangerous should another war break out. The last war already provided ample indications that Hezballah has received numerous effective anti-tank rockets and have developed very effective tactics for their deployment. This was one area which the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) needed to develop some form of countermeasures. The greatest threat is to the Israeli public as Hezballah’s numbers of missiles are sufficient to use for swarm attacks as they can lose large numbers to interception providing they are able to get some percentage through the Israeli defenses. The numbers of missiles makes air superiority a necessity which is why Israel cannot allow large numbers or advanced air defenses to be provided to Hezballah as only through air superiority can Israel successfully destroy the stores of missiles and their launchers before they are sent in numbers over Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Ashdod, Ashkelon, Beersheba and numerous others.

 

The difference between Hezballah and Israel is a familiar one but still important to mention while we are on the subject. First, Hezballah uses identical tactics as does Hamas and will the PLO, which is to say the Palestinian Authority when they decide they have gained all they can through blackmail and using the world to demand Israel kowtow to demands for their surrender and return to their terrorist ways, which means firing from behind the people they claim to protect while Israel does everything possible to protect civilians, both Israeli and Palestinians. Hezballah has placed their rocket launchers inside civilian homes and place their command bunkers under hospitals, schools and even Mosques. They defend their positions using civilians and store their weapons and rockets in civilian’s homes, Mosques and schools. Hezballah builds tunnels and bunkers in which they secure their fighters and civilians are forced to remain on the surface usually near Hezballah fighter locations. Further, Hezballah uses villages and towns as their operations centers and builds fighting positions within these locations often people’s homes, schools and other public locations. The Hezballah tactic is to maximize civilian deaths, hardships and destruction of civilian structures all such that at the end of the conflict they can show this destruction to the media as proof of Israel offenses claiming the Israelis simply attacked civilian homes and structures out of spite and not because of their being used as military enforcements. Often the media can tell the claims are bogus as they can see the fortifications and still take their photographs using such angles so as to avoid displaying the fortifications while maximizing the obvious damage. Often the media has their photos and stories edited by Hezballah and in order to be permitted to return and cover future events each media outlet is required to follow the Hezballah story otherwise their entire news service will be barred from covering anything in Lebanon. Meanwhile, in Israel the media is permitted complete freedom and is free from any forms of censorship whatsoever which is why often the bad stories come out about Israel while Israeli enemies always get star treatment by the media. Israel suffers from the identical media difficulty that the United States also faces with total freedom of the media. When you have no operational control over the media and their stories and your enemy exercises total media control and is willing to lie and the media willingly follows along with their messages, it should be no surprise that Israel has the media difficulty.

 

The final warping of the media coverage is the often result in civilian casualties between Israel and her enemies. The extensive efforts that Israel goes to in order to keep its civilians protected, its enemies all spend seemingly an equal amount of effort to maximize the destruction of civilian structures and the numbers of dead and injured civilians they are able to produce. This leads to a high civilian casualty count while Israel often suffers minimal civilian deaths and casualties. Israelis are well trained and are conscious of the closest shelter when there is a war and are willing to drop anything including prayers to head to their closest shelter. Israel’s enemy governments and terror forces consider shelters as a waste of resources which could be better used to purchase weapons. This leads to a civilian casualty count in Israel often approaching zero while her enemies who place their fighting forces and weapons stores and rocket tubes within civilian homes and use civilians as human shields suffer civilian casualties in the tens, hundreds or unfortunately thousands. Still, it has been shown and witnessed that Israel does far more than any other military to protect and avoid civilian casualties on either side even to the point of calling off strikes to avoid civilian casualties even when the civilians have voluntarily gathered to protect terrorists. The IDF is amongst, if not the, most moral military in all history. Don’t take our word for it; listen to Colonel Richard Kemp in the video below giving evidence to the United Nations.

 

 

An example came when the IDF had three terrorist leaders holed up in a Mosque in Gaza. The IDF troops refused to enter the Mosque as this is something they avoid out of respect for a house of worship (you never want to see what Israel’s enemies do to captured Synagogues). Hamas radio called for women to rush to the Mosque with some extra burkas and within minute’s two dozen women in burkas and some carrying burkas entered the Mosque. Soon afterwards, the women left the Mosque as a mob hiding the three terrorists wearing burkas somewhere in the group. The IDF officer ordered his men to simply leave as the alternative would have been unthinkable for IDF soldiers to potentially appear to accost Muslim women.

 

In conclusion, the problem facing Israel also involves Russia as the ally and enforcement arm of Syria. Israel coordinates with the Russian commanders before sending any aircraft into Syrian airspace such that Russian and Israeli aircraft are not in conflict. Thus far, by all information, the Russians have not been sharing such information with the Syrians intentionally but there is obviously some leakage. When Bashir al-Assad’s military commanders receive hints or information of an imminent Israeli strike they inform their militias and other unattached forces who have been armed and often actually are Hezballah and receiving support directly from Iran. Syria would love to open a front against Israel in the hopes of internationalizing the war and bringing it before the United Nations General Assembly where Israel will be once again denounced. The end result will be a front opened across the Golan Heights with Hezballah attacking from the Israeli northern border backed by the Lebanese Army which is American armed including tanks and aircraft. As they have already been given these arms, the merging of the Lebanese Army with Hezballah being placed under their control, Israel may be facing the combined forces of Hezballah, Lebanon, Syrians and presumably independent militias all of which are backed by Russia. Russia is not in any means taking action against Israel and with Iran gathering forces and aligning forces under a unified command group independent of the Russians, is going to put Putin into a delicate position. When these forces finally open a full force assault upon Israel in an attempt to bring things before the United Nations where Israel will be blamed for initiating the violence and this will place Russia in the position of deciding whether to pull out of Syria demanding that their port facilities in Latakia as Russian protected territory and otherwise Russian forces will stand down and release Syria to its fate or Russia continuing to back Syria and very possibly be drawn into a war with Israel. Should Russia engage Israeli forces, be it on the Golan Heights or against aircraft in Syrian or Lebanese territories, then what does the United States do and NATO and the United Nations. There is a distinct possibility that the United States will use these events to press Israel into making a crippling series of concessions to Abbas giving him his state with the Green Line as a border as a prerequisite for continued aid while facing the war on the Israeli north against Syria, Lebanon, Hezballah, and full Russian assistance and Iran who will also add another front at some point using Hamas on the Israeli southern border along Gaza and with aid of militias along the Sinai-Negev front. This would soon include the Palestinian Authority as Abbas would be overthrown immediately after the forced peace and the withdrawal of the IDF either by ISIS or Hamas bringing this as well as the final front. This could lead to Israel fighting a war with fronts on all borders even to include the Mediterranean Sea leaving Israel in a desperate war for her existence and Israel would at best finally establish her borders as the Jordan River and hold the southern borders while establishing the Litani River and Golan Heights as their northern border and end these wars by establishing defendable borders with the downside of the entire nations requiring the rebuilding of her entire infrastructure. It would take Israel over a decade to rebuild but once the restructure has been completed, Israel would be the envy of the world when it comes to infrastructure and the Third Temple would be constructed and the Arabs who are unwilling to live supporting the Jewish State deported and finally a bright future before her.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

January 17, 2017

The Hidden Trap in UNSC 2334, Israel and Palestine

 

The entirety of United Nations Security Council Resolution 2334 can be found at the end of the article for those willing to suffer through its tedious and tendentious prose and are welcome to peruse the entirety of the document. The one saving grace is it is not that long a read. The first item is that the preface, the longest section of the article, completely undermines the rest of the resolution. Had this in any way been reflective of its claims for reaffirming Res. 242, Res. 338, Res. 446, Res. 452, Res. 465, Res. 476, Res. 478, Res. 1397 and Res. 1515; then it would have called for negotiations to establish borders which would provide Israel with defendable and defined borders. If, when mentioning the settlements, it would have only pressed for limited or no additional settlements and limitation on expansion of existing settlements only to accommodate population increases, there would not have been the attempt to criminalize the settlements nor would it press for their dismantlement as was the seeming intent. Further, there would have been no mention of using the 1949 Armistice Lines, the Green Line, as the basis for any future borders. Finally, the resolution flies in the face, as did all the previous other than Res. 242, of the United Nations Charter as according to Article 80 of said Charter, the United Nations was considered the enforcing power for the Mandate System inherited from the League of Nations along with all other agreements and resolutions produced under the League of Nations which would define Israel’s borders to the east as being the Jordan River, period and end of discussion unless Israel decides to grant any claims of the validity they seek. Let us stress, that is validity they seek, not claim. The truth of the matter and the only decision under International Law any court can reach is that Israel owns all of Judea and Samaria and the Palestinian Authority and any other entity have no valid claim to one inch of the lands west of the Jordan River. This is more than our opinion as it was also the decision of the Court of Appeal of Versailles, France. Then there is the advisory opinion from the Honorable Justice El Araby, an Egyptian who sat as an adjudicator on the International Court of Justice when they were requested to make a ruling on the Israeli security barrier and whether it could be legally placed as designed. He warned the UNGA and others that filing further ran some risks, as he stated,

 

“The international legal status of the Palestinian Territory (paras. 70-71 of the Advisory Opinion), in my view, merits more comprehensive treatment. A historical survey is relevant to the question posed by the General Assembly, for it serves as the background to understanding the legal status of the Palestinian Territory on the one hand and underlines the special and continuing responsibility of the General Assembly on the other. This may appear as academic, without relevance to the present events. The present is however determined by the accumulation of past events and no reasonable and fair concern for the future can possibly disregard a firm grasp of past events. In particular, when on more than one occasion, the rule of law was consistently side-stepped. The point of departure, or one can say in legal jargon, the critical date, is the League of Nations Mandate which was entrusted to Great Britain.”

 

The entire reason for the presage of UNSC 2334 by President Obama and his administration was in order to set up this current Paris conference where his plan is to press for them to advise for the recognition of a state for the Arabs. This would need to be pushed and be ratified and presented officially before noon EST of January 20, 2017 and then taken for a near immediate vote by the UNSC on a resolution recognizing such state, setting its borders as probably the Green Line, President Obama’s wildest dream, and making it a Chapter Seven Resolution which is enforceable by military force. Such a resolution would make any attack upon Israel for the stated purpose of forcing them from the lands that the United Nations gave to the Arabs for their state as legal and fully backed by the nations of the world. Such a resolution would also place any nation aiding Israel is such a war as vulnerable to being brought before the International Courts and sued to cease and desist or face sanction and possibly military force to end their support. Basically, such a resolution would tie the hands of every nation to turn their hand against Israel bringing the Biblical prophecy of the world turning its hand being against Israel and every nation becoming the enemy of the Jewish State. We hope we do not have to remind anyone of what follows as there are four horsemen in the New Testament and the Messiah in the Old Testament and the following is not pretty at all. But that is the direction that the European Union, President Obama, Secretary of State Kerry, other select people from the Administration and many of the Arab World all would like to see become reality. President Obama is in such a rush because first he wants to get even with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for opposing the Iran treaty and not respecting President Obama and bowing to his desires at every turn and because he realizes that since Hillary Clinton did not win the election as expected, that President Trump is not going to continue the war against Israel and might change things away from the current direction making this the last time in the foreseeable future that forcing this solution and the making of a new Arab state possible. President Obama is aware that such an opportunity to force this issue is now or never and he cannot rest without giving it everything he is able.

 

The reality is that the political winds are changing and are going to blow for a while in a completely different direction and it is very probable that the world’s attentions will be swinging away from the Middle East and become more centered on economies and containment of the troubles plaguing the Middle East to only the Middle East which will also bring the refugee immigration, or should we say invasion, to a quick and unmerciful end. The war in Syria is likely to be brought to a close with whatever agreement is necessary being imposed and likely the nation made into three states; one Alawite under Bashir al-Assad; one Kurdish which may even include some of the lands from northern Iraq included and the state of Kurdistan, which had been a promise that the British made during World War I but found oil more important than their promises, finally brought into fruition; and the final a Sunni state which could very easily be divided between Turkey and central Iraq leaving southern Iraq as either the remnant of Shiite Iraq or merged into Iran. These divisions would respect tribal and ethnic division with the Sunni with the Sunni, the Shia with Shia and the Kurds finally realizing their independence. Such a strategy would also provide the Middle East with much needed ethnic borders and potentially greater security and peace, imagine that.

 

That leaves Libya which could be divided into so many smaller states except that would create the problem of constant wars between the tribes or a larger problem of a neighboring state of terrorist forces taking hold of this dysfunctional area. This is already a problem but even the terrorists found attempting to establish a safe area in Libya to be next to impossible. Sometimes conflict is unavoidable and Libya has been a cauldron of trouble ever since the Romans and Carthage fought their wars there and during the Caliphate and Ottoman eras with the Barbary Pirates and even up to the time Thomas Jefferson sent the United States Marines into Tripoli taking the harbor and forcing an end to the pirating of American vessels, well, until the next time they thought America had been weakened and had to be taught again that they were mistaken. These were the Barbary Wars, 1801–1805 and 1815–1816, bracketed the War of 1812 where the British attempted to retake their former colony and failed. The Barbary Pirates figured such a war had weakened the United States and needed to be shown otherwise. The Italians were given Libya after World War I and the breakup of the Ottoman Empire until 1947, approximately the time many of the European nations resigned from their colonial holdings. For more on Libya and its problems through the ages, one can go here, and hopefully that will be sufficient coverage of Libya.

 

Israel, in the meantime, will eventually be granted all that which was and is still promised her. This means that the eastern border will end up being the Jordan River. The only decision the world need make is how much drama, needless suffering, necessary time to undo the damage caused by the broken promises, and the number of lives, both Arab and Israeli, will be wasted getting to the rightful and just fulfillment of promises. For those who are going to challenge about the British promise to the Arabs that they would be granted a state within the British Mandate, that was satisfied when seventy-eight percent of the British Mandate was used to make the Arab state of Jordan. The remainder, as stated in the Churchill White Papers, was to be granted the Jews for their homeland. Those claiming the division suggested under UNGA Res. 181, that division was merely a General Assembly Resolution which are suggestive in their enforcement and as soon as either side refuses such a resolution it becomes null and void and cannot be resurrected no matter how badly one desires to steal as much land and make Israel so vulnerable as to make her defense impossible just to see Jews murdered and Israel destroyed again. The Arab League refused that solution and invaded Israel on May 15, 1948; the very day Israel came into being with the Jordan River as her legal boundary.

 

The problem the world is having over Israel can be simplified to one thing; many, possibly most, of the world do not believe nor desire that the Jews be permitted their homeland. The Western World and much of the remainder of the planet are fully aware of the ancient history of the Jewish People in Israel and their Capital city, eternal Capital city, of Jerusalem. These anti-Semitic views desire the Jew to be the tiny minority which is defenseless and can be beaten, stolen from, demeaned and otherwise simply used as a punching bag by any and every nation at their whim. They want Jews not permitted to own land or have any property of their own beyond a suitcase and whatever they can carry at a moment’s notice. They desire the Jew they abused for the past twenty-five-hundred years with the brief exceptions when they revolted and threw off the yokes of Greek Rule and then Roman Rule. They want the Jew to continue to suffer the intended punishment forced upon them by the Romans with their dispersal which was intended to end the existence of the Jewish People. The Jewish fate was to be the same as every other people the Roman treated thusly such as the Carthaginians and various other tribes whose names have been lost to antiquity and are known only to those who study ancient histories and even they likely miss a good number of peoples who have been defeated by the conquering empires from Egypt, Hittite, Minoan, Persian, Babylonian and on through the ages. The Chinese, Mongols, Japanese and Indian in Asia and the Aztec, Inca and others who ruled before the European colonization in the Americas where people who were erased from history as after conquest they assimilated and disappeared. Even the Jews had their lost tribes when the northern ten tribes were carried off by the Assyrians and were never seen again though there are beliefs that these tribes are now returning to Israel from their varied places around the globe.

 

Some who desire the destruction of Israel believe that it is necessary otherwise their religion is devalued. This was the historic position of numerous Christian religious groups and was even named replacement theology. This form of preaching exists today and was exactly what was preached at the Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago under the direction and religious teaching of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright and what President Obama listened to during sermons for the twenty years he attended this church. His claim to never have listened or heard these preaching has actually made them even more dangerous as their effect was then subliminal and affecting President Obama’s thoughts through subconscious influences and could have been partly responsible for his determination to destroy Israel and thus the Jewish People, just saying. The damages of replacement theology was based on the supposition that the Jews had been cast off by Hashem and were now under the influence of the devil, except there is no devil or hell in traditional Judaism, and thus were replaced by the Christian Church. With time the Christian Church became the Roman Catholic Church and the Eastern Orthodox Church. Then would come the Protestant Reformation where the protestant churches each replaced the Catholic Church. Somewhere off on another argument is Scientology but that gets way too complicated. The one item which was necessary for all these replacements to remain valid was for the Jews never to return to Israel as once the Jews returned to Israel, then the promise of their eventual return from exile by Hashem would be fulfilled and thus mean they were still the Chosen People and invalidate their replacement as such. Then there is Islam which basically claims to be the final and only valid religion of Hashem, except now they change the name to Allah, and according to Islam the Christians have joined the Jews as having been replaced. This is the ultimate replacement theology because the Muslim took the precaution of claiming there can never be another religion as they are the final rendition of the Abrahamic faiths. Islam also claims that Allah has promised them they will conquer the world and end all these false faiths through whatever means necessary. It all gets messy after a while but everybody agrees that the Jews are not to return except the Muslims in the Quran do accept that Jerusalem and Israel are the homelands of the Jews, just do not tell the Palestinian Arabs as they would get very upset with you. The one agreement of the Western religions is that the Jews must not be allowed to return and set up home in Israel and especially with Jerusalem as their Capital City; well, until sometime in the late 1960s and early 1970s when many decided maybe there was room to permit the Jews to return home. Thanks.

 

French President Francois Hollande and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas

French President Francois Hollande and PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas

 

Anyway, apparently that short allowance has worn out and passed it use-by date and been rescinded. Now the United Nations, European Union, United States State Department (the same United States State Department which advised President Harry S. Truman not to recognize Israel but Harry listened to what his mother taught him as a child, go Mom!), numerous European countries, politicians around the globe, the Arab world, the Muslim world and many in Hollywood (where would we be without Hollywood thespians telling us what to think) and who knows who else, maybe Communists and Scientologists (though who knows anything about the Scientologists) all attempting to uproot Israel or weaken her until she cannot defend herself and find some means to eliminate the Jewish State. Did the world learn nothing from the attempts thus far to eliminate Israel and how miracles have saved her to date? In 1948 Israel did not even have a military, no chain of command, the British had taken every weapon they could find, there was no real Israeli Air Force, an Israeli tank was a car with a large caliber gun and a half dozen Arab nations and seven militias attacked within hours of the sun rising on Israel for the first time in nearly two thousand years and somehow Israel survived. In 1967 Israel was outgunned and outmanned by approximately hundreds-to-one and in Six Days took the Golan Heights, liberated Judea and Samaria from Jordanian occupation (yes, you read that right, Jordanian occupation) and conquered the entirety of the Sinai Peninsula surrounding the Egyptian Third Army. Miracle, come on, you can say it, miracle. The miracles have continued since then as in a recent Gaza conflict where there was one such event as here is one of the many articles documenting this miracle, praise Hashem. Here is what was reported by the actual Iron Dome commanding officer who related the story.

 

“A missile was fired from Gaza. Iron Dome precisely calculated [its trajectory]. We know where these missiles are going to land down to a radius of 200 meters. This particular missile was going to hit either the Azrieli Towers, the Kirya (Israel’s equivalent of the Pentagon) or [a central Tel Aviv railway station]. Hundreds could have died.”


“We fired the first [interceptor]. It missed. Second [interceptor]. It missed. This is very rare. I was in shock. At this point we had just four seconds until the missile lands. We had already notified emergency services to converge on the target location and had warned of a mass-casualty incident.”


“Suddenly, Iron Dome (which calculates wind speeds, among other things) shows a major wind coming from the east, a strong wind that…sends the missile into the sea. We were all stunned. I stood up and shouted, ‘There is a G0d!’ I witnessed this miracle with my own eyes. It was not told or reported to me. I saw the hand of G0d send that missile into the sea.”

 

The truth is Israel cannot surrender a single inch of the land the world demands she grant to those sworn to her destruction. Read yesterday’s article and view the pictures there and at the look provided and you can see how if Israel gives the Arabs the Judean Hills all of Tel Aviv to the Mediterranean Sea is visible. The same goes for Haifa and Ashdod and Netanya. The entirety of the central Israeli coastal plain would become uninhabitable as shoulder fired wire guided anti-tank rockets which are guidable could be utilized to target individual structures up to half way across Israel. Rocket and artillery fire could be sight adjusted targeting central downtown Tel Aviv. Jerusalem would be completely cut off from the remainder of Israel and West Jerusalem could be starved into submission. Ben Gurion International Airport would become a shooting gallery and no plane could land or take off with any degree of safety. All of Israel could be brought to a standstill at the mere whim of Mahmoud Abbas, assuming he remained in power. The chance that Hamas or Islamic State would replace the Palestinian Authority would be more than probable; the only question would be which one would move first as that would be the reality Israel would face within months of such an eventuality as is being considered in Paris. Finally, there is one saving grace for as long as the world does not force Mahmoud Abbas or anybody who would follow him as leader of the Palestinian Authority to accept such a peace, they would have to turn down any offer which left anything of Israel intact and should the world manage to remove the Jews, then they would flee from such a situation. The reality is that once Israel is removed from having the IDF provide security in all of Judea and Samaria, then whoever leads the Palestinian authority and the rest of the security and leadership would be dead within six months as whichever terror group replaced them just as what happened in Gaza. Abbas knows this and that is why he may talk of peace but he will never accept any peace as he has enriched himself and plans to live well and spend the stolen funds as do the rest of the Palestinian authority kleptocrats. Ridiculous as it may seem, but Mahmoud Abbas is an ace in the hole as he will never accept peace whether it comes from the European Union, United Nations or whatever council the future provides, and that is something Israel has counted on in the past though few will admit such.

 

Beyond the Cusp

 

UNSC 2334 page 1
UNSC 2334 page 2
UNSC 2334 page 3

Next Page »

Blog at WordPress.com.